Search results for: financial budget

Authors: Aticha Kwaengsopha

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The purpose of this research was to study the behaviour and related factors that tourists utilized for making decisions to choose their accommodations at a tourist destination, Bangkontee district, Samut Songkhran Province, Thailand. The independent variables included gender, age, income, occupation, and region, while the three important dependent variables included selection behaviour, factors related selection process, and satisfaction of the accommodation service. A total of 400 Thai and international tourists were interviewed at tourist destination of Bangkontee. A questionnaire was used as the tool for collecting data. Descriptive statistics in this research included percentage, mean, and standard deviation. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were single, female, and with the age between 23-30 years old. Most of the international tourists were from Asia and planned to stay in Thailand about 1-6 days. In addition, the majority of tourists preferred to travel in small groups of 3 persons. The majority of respondents used internet and word of mouth as the main tool to search for information. The majority of respondents spent most of their budget on food & drink, accommodation, and travelling. Even though the majority of tourists were satisfied with the quality of accommodation, the price range of accommodation, and the image of accommodation and the facilities of the accommodation, they indicated that they were not likely to re-visit Thailand in the near future.

Keywords: behaviour, decision factors, tourists, media engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Lim Poh Im

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This paper examines the current strategic and planning issues in the provision of affordable housing in urban centres in Malaysia from the perspective of sustainability. Sustainability here refers to social sustainability such as the need to address urban poverty and ensure better quality of life; economic sustainability in ensuring that the financial mechanisms are healthy and stable in the long-run, and to a lesser extent, environmental sustainability in reducing pollution related problems and building footprint. The Malaysian affordable housing sector has undergone tremendous transformations since the sixties, transcending from the earlier social housing catering to the poorer strata of the society, to the current state of housing woes plaguing the young urban middle class. The increase in urban land prices and construction costs, coupled with rampant property speculative and manipulative activities have resulted in situations of housing that are largely unaffordable even to the middle income sector of the urban populations. To overcome such scenario, the public as well as private sectors in the recent years, have came up with various intermediate, as well as medium-term policies aimed to curb the burning housing needs of the urban populations. Key strategies include financial intervention in regulating the interests rates, imposing property gain taxes; loosening the requirement for density and other planning requirements, faster approval of projects, compulsory contribution from developers, etc. Some of the policies are commendable, while others are ad-hoc by nature, and are not able to resolve the long-term socio-economic challenges. This paper discusses and examines the issues from the ‘sustainability’ perspective, focusing on key fiscal, land use and planning policies, as well as the more subtle (but important) political and institutional factors shaping the provision of mass housing for the urban populations in Malaysia.

Keywords: affordable housing, urban housing, sustainable housing, planning for urban housing

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Authors: L. Ngowi, N. H. Mvungi

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This paper critically examines the evolution of socio-technical systems theory, its practices, and challenges in system design and development. It examines concepts put forward by researchers focusing on the application of the theory in software engineering. There are various methods developed that use socio-technical concepts based on systems engineering without remarkable success. The main constraint is the large amount of data and inefficient techniques used in the application of the concepts in system engineering for developing time-bound systems and within a limited/controlled budget. This paper critically examines each of the methods, highlight bottlenecks and suggest the way forward. Since socio-technical systems theory only explains what to do, but not how doing it, hence engineers are not using the concept to save time, costs and reduce risks associated with new frameworks. Hence, a new framework, which can be considered as a practical approach is proposed that borrows concepts from soft systems method, agile systems development and object-oriented analysis and design to bridge the gap between theory and practice. The approach will enable the development of systems using socio-technical systems theory to attract/enable the system engineers/software developers to use socio-technical systems theory in building worthwhile information systems to avoid fragilities and hostilities in the work environment.

Keywords: socio-technical systems, human centered design, software engineering, cognitive engineering, soft systems, systems engineering

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Authors: Aime Philombe Zapji Ymele

Abstract:

Servicing public debt is a significant budgetary burden. In the sense that the payment of interest charges is a liability on the balance sheet of the public budget and affects fiscal policy. Interest charges can sometimes become a burden if they crowd out private activities. In order to analyse and understand the determinants of the debt burden and its impact on the sustainability of public finances, the present work focuses on OECD countries. It is noted from the literature that the factors that determine interest charges are macroeconomic (inflation, GDP growth, and interest rates) and public finances (primary balance and public debt). After analysing a panel of 33 OECD countries and using ordinary least squares (OLS), we find that public debt, inflation, and long-term interest rates are positively correlated with interest charges. An increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in debt charges. On the other hand, a growth in GDP is negatively associated with interest charges. Indeed, an increase in GDP generates enough revenue to meet the repayment of debt charges. According to the empirical analysis, we can say that, despite the large and growing debt-to-GDP ratio of major OECD countries, interest charges are not a threat to the sustainability of public finances. However, it is important for these countries to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP because, in the face of the many challenges (health, aging population, etc.) that are looming on the horizon, an increase in interest rates could bring with it considerable burdens that would threaten the budgetary balance of these states.

Keywords: interest charges, sustainability, public debt, interest rates

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Authors: Ali Abu Ali, Mohammad Salhab

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Introduction: In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) microfinance struggles to find momentum. The Lebanese economy has been struggling through the years due to domestic and external, political and social instability. Although as of 2014 there are around 23 MFIs that are mainly subsidized by the USAID, operating in the country, the Lebanese microfinance market is mostly dominated by three microfinance institutions: Al Majmoua, Vitas, and Al Quard Al Hassan Association. Methodology: A quantitative approach using a standardized questionnaire would analyse the perception of the average Lebanese towards microfinance. A questionnaire was designed and validated. Results: Almost half of the respondents earn a monthly income ranged between $100 and $600. Almost 52% of the respondents were university graduates, around 25% finished secondary and high school, and 12% hold a masters or MBA degree. Topic understanding towards microfinance differs across Lebanese areas. The highest percentage of respondents who claim that microfinance offers financial services to low income people are the residents of Beirut (35.1%), Bekaa (30.8%), and South of Lebanon (24.7%). Higher levels of topic understanding were associated with lower levels of age range. Al Quard el Hassan foundation was regarded as the most known micro financial institution operating in Lebanon. In general, Lebanese people tend to believe that microfinance can play an important role in reducing unemployment rates and poverty levels in Lebanon. When people were asked what would motivate you to get a loan from MFIs, most of the respondent (57.4%) across all the Lebanese region claimed that it was the need for money to satisfy a need such as paying back a loan, to fix something at home, or for self-consideration like buying a car. Conclusion: Our findings showed that in general Lebanese tend to have a positive perception towards microfinance. However, most Lebanese perceive microfinance as the process of just providing loans without specifying for whom it is intended. We advise that government introduces laws to regulate the microfinance market.

Keywords: microfinance, economics, finance, business, analysis, theory

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Authors: Kristin Drexler

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Climate change has exacerbated food and livelihood insecurity for Mayan milpa farmers in Central America. For centuries, milpa farming has been sustainable for subsistence; however, in the last 50 years, milpas have become less reliable due to accelerating climate change, resource degradation, declining markets, poverty, and other factors. Using interviews with extension leaders and milpa farmers in Belize, this qualitative study examines the capacity for increasing climate-smart agriculture (CSA) aspects of existing traditional milpa practices, specifically no-burn mulching, soil enrichment, and the use of cover plants. Applying community capitals and socio-ecological systems frameworks, this study finds four key capitals were perceived by farmers and agriculture extension leaders as barriers for increasing CSA practices: (1) human-capacity, (2) financial, (3) infrastructure, and (4) governance-justice capitals. The key barriers include a lack of CSA technology and pest management knowledge-sharing (human-capacity), unreliable roads and utility services (infrastructure), the closure of small markets and crop-buying programs in Belize (financial), and constraints on extension services and exacerbating a sense of marginalization in Maya communities (governance-justice). Recommendations are presented for government action to reduce barriers and facilitate an increase in milpa crop productivity, promote food and livelihood security, and enable climate resilience of Mayan milpa communities in Belize.

Keywords: socio-ecological systems, community capitals, climate-smart agriculture, food security, milpa, Belize

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Authors: Medya Fathi

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Today, success in the construction industry is not merely about project completion in a timely manner within an established budget and meeting required quality considerations. Management practices and partnerships need to be emphasized as well. In this regard, critical success factors (CSFs) cover necessary considerations for a successful project beyond the traditional success definition, which vary depending on project outcomes, delivery methods, project types, and partnering processes. Despite the extensive research on CSFs, there is a paucity of studies that examine CSFs for public-private partnership (PPP); the delivery method, which has gained increasing attention from researchers and practitioners over the last decade with a slow but growing adoption in the transportation infrastructure, particularly, highway industry. To fill this knowledge gap, data are collected through questionnaire surveys among private and public parties involved in PPP transportation projects in the United States. Then, the collected data are analyzed to explore the causality relationships between CSFs and PPP project success using structural equation model and provide a list of factors with the greatest influence. This study advocates adopting a critical success factor approach to enhance PPP success in the U.S. transportation industry and identify elements essential for public and private organizations to achieve this success.

Keywords: project success, critical success factors, public-private partnership, transportation

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Authors: Marziye Hadian, Alireza Jabbari

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Background: Each year, tropical diseases affect large numbers of tropical or subtropical populations and give rise to irreparable financial and human damage. Among these diseases, some are known as Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) that may cause unusual dangers; however, they have not been appropriately accounted for. Taking into account the priority of eradication of the disease, this study explored the causes of failure to eradicate neglected tropical diseases. Method: This study was a systematized review that was conducted in January 2021 on the articles related to neglected tropical diseases on databases of Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, Ovid, Pro-Quest, and Google Scholar. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines as well as Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) for articles and AACODS (Authority, Accuracy, Coverage, Objectivity, Date, Significance) for grey literature (provides five criteria for judging the quality of grey information) were integrated. Finding: The challenges in controlling and eradicating neglected tropical diseases in four general themes are as follows: shortcomings in disease management policies and programs, environmental challenges, executive challenges in policy disease and research field and 36 sub-themes. Conclusion: To achieve the goals of eradicating forgotten tropical diseases, it seems indispensable to free up financial, human and research resources, proper management of health infrastructure, attention to migrants and refugees, clear targeting, prioritization appropriate to local conditions and special attention to political and social developments. Reducing the number of diseases should free up resources for the management of neglected tropical diseases prone to epidemics as dengue, chikungunya and leishmaniasis. For the purpose of global support, targeting should be accurate.

Keywords: neglected tropical disease, NTD, preventive, eradication

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Zapji Ymele Aime Philombe

Abstract:

Servicing public debt is a significant budgetary burden in the sense that the payment of interest charges is a liability on the balance sheet of the public budget and affects fiscal policy. Interest charges can sometimes become a burden if they crowd out private activities. In order to analyse and understand the determinants of the debt burden and its impact on the sustainability of public finances, the present work focuses on OECD countries. It is noted from the literature that the factors that determine interest charges are macroeconomic (inflation, GDP growth and interest rates) and public finances (primary balance and public debt). After analysing a panel of 33 OECD countries and using ordinary least squares (OLS), we find that public debt, inflation and long-term interest rates are positively correlated with interest charges. An increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in debt charges. On the other hand, a growth in GDP is negatively associated with interest charges. Indeed, an increase in GDP generates enough revenue to meet the repayment of debt charges. According to the empirical analysis, we can say that, despite the large and growing debt-to-GDP ratio of major OECD countries, interest charges are not a threat to the sustainability of public finances. However, it is important for these countries to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP because, in the face of the many challenges (health, aging population, etc.) that are looming on the horizon, an increase in interest rates could bring with it considerable burdens that would threaten the budgetary balance of these states.

Keywords: interests charges, public debt, sustainability, interest rates

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Authors: Szymon Szemik, Małgorzata Kowalska

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Objective: Medical students experience numerous demands during the education process, determining their quality of life (QoL) and health status. POLLEK (POLski LEKarz, eng. Polish Physician) study aims to identify and evaluate the quality of life, mental health status, and ever-recognized chronic diseases by simultaneously assessing their determinants in Polish medical students during long-term observation. Material and Methods: The POLLEK is the follow-up cohort study conducted among medical students at the Medical University of Silesia in Katowice. Students were followed during two observation periods: in their first year of studies, the academic year 2021/2022 (T1), and in their second year, the academic year 2022/2023 (T2). Results: The total number of participants in the first year of observation (T1) was 427 while in the second year (T2) was 335. Obtained results confirmed that the QoL score significantly decreased in their second year of studies mainly in the somatic and psychological domains. Moreover, we observed a significant increase in self-declared scoring of somatic symptoms year by year (from M=4.75 at T1 to M=8.06 at T2, p<0.001) in the GHQ-28 questionnaire survey. The determinants of QoL domains common to T1 and T2 remained self-declared health status, frequency of physical activity, and current financial situation. In the first year of evaluation, 56 students (13.10%) were overweight or obese, and 52 (15.8%) in the second. Regardless of the academic year, the increased risk of being overweight or obese was significantly associated with dissatisfaction with personal health, financial deficiencies, and a diet abundant in meat consumption. Conclusions: The QoL in medical students and selected determinants of their health status deteriorated during the observation period. Our findings suggest that medical schools should actively promote the activity needed to achieve a balance between schoolwork and the personal life of medical students from the beginning of university study.

Keywords: quality of life, mental health, medical students, follow-up study

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Authors: Gulnara Galeeva

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The Analytic Hierarchy Process is widely used in the economic and financial studies, including the formation of investment portfolios. In this study, a generalized method of obtaining a vector of priorities for the case with separate pairwise comparisons of the expert opinion being presented as a set of several equal evaluations on a ratio scale is examined. The author claims that this method allows solving an important and up-to-date problem of excluding vagueness and ambiguity of the expert opinion in the decision making theory. The study describes the authentic wide pairwise comparison matrix. Its application in the formation of the efficient investment portfolio of intangible assets of a small business enterprise with limited funding is considered. The proposed method has been successfully approbated on the practical example of a functioning dental clinic. The result of the study confirms that the wide pairwise comparison matrix can be used as a simple and reliable method for forming the enterprise investment policy. Moreover, a comparison between the method based on the wide pairwise comparison matrix and the classical analytic hierarchy process was conducted. The results of the comparative analysis confirm the correctness of the method based on the wide matrix. The application of a wide pairwise comparison matrix also allows to widely use the statistical methods of experimental data processing for obtaining the vector of priorities. A new method is available for simple users. Its application gives about the same accuracy result as that of the classical hierarchy process. Financial directors of small and medium business enterprises get an opportunity to solve the problem of companies’ investments without resorting to services of analytical agencies specializing in such studies.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision processes, investment portfolio, intangible assets

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Authors: Amit Verma, Pardeep Kaur

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In software development organizations, Component based Software engineering (CBSE) is emerging paradigm for software development and gained wide acceptance as it often results in increase quality of software product within development time and budget. In component reusability, main challenges are the right component identification from large repositories at right time. The major objective of this work is to provide efficient algorithm for storage and effective retrieval of components using neural network and parameters based on user choice through clustering. This research paper aims to propose an algorithm that provides error free and automatic process (for retrieval of the components) while reuse of the component. In this algorithm, keywords (or components) are extracted from software document, after by applying k mean clustering algorithm. Then weights assigned to those keywords based on their frequency and after assigning weights, ANN predicts whether correct weight is assigned to keywords (or components) or not, otherwise it back propagates in to initial step (re-assign the weights). In last, store those all keywords into repositories for effective retrieval. Proposed algorithm is very effective in the error correction and detection with user base choice while choice of component for reusability for efficient retrieval is there.

Keywords: component based development, clustering, back propagation algorithm, keyword based retrieval

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Authors: Julien Benomar

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The World Bank report published in April 2023 called “Migrants, Refugees and Society” allows us to first distinguish migrants in search of economic opportunities and refugees that flee a situation of danger and choose their destination based on their immediate need for safety. Amongst those two categories, the report distinguished people having professional skills adapted to the labor market of the host country and those who have not. Out of that distinction of four categories, we choose to focus our research on refugees that do not have professional skills adapted to the labor market of the host country. Given that refugees generally have no recourse to public assistance schemes and cannot count on the support of their entourage or support network, we propose to examine the extent to which external assistance, such as international humanitarian action, is likely to accompany refugees' transition to financial empowerment through entrepreneurship. To this end, we propose to carry out a case study structured in three stages: (i) an exchange with a Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) active in supporting refugee populations from Congo and Burundi to Rwanda, enabling us to (i.i) define together a financial empowerment income, and (i. ii) learn about the content of the support measures taken for the beneficiaries of the humanitarian project; (ii) monitor the population of 118 beneficiaries, including 73 refugees and 45 Rwandans (reference population); (iii) conduct a participatory analysis to identify the level of performance of the project and areas for improvement. The case study thus involved the staff of an international NGO active in helping refugees from Rwanda since 2015 and the staff of a Luxembourg NGO that has been funding this economic aid project through entrepreneurship since 2021. The case study thus involved the staff of an international NGO active in helping refugees from Rwanda since 2015 and the staff of a Luxembourg NGO, which has been funding this economic aid through an entrepreneurship project since 2021, and took place over a 48-day period between April and May 2023. The main results are of two types: (i) the need to associate indicators for monitoring the impact of the project on the indirect beneficiaries of the project (refugee community) and (ii) the identification of success factors making it possible to bring concrete and relevant responses to the constraints encountered. The first result thus made it possible to identify the following indicators: Indicator of community potential ((jobs, training or mentoring) promoted by the activity of the entrepreneur), Indicator of social contribution (tax paid by the entrepreneur), Indicator of resilience (savings and loan capacity generated, and finally impact on social cohesion. The second result made it possible to identify that among the 7 success factors tested, the sector of activity chosen and the level of experience in the sector of the future activity are those that stand out the most clearly.

Keywords: entrepreuneurship, refugees, financial empowerment, international aid

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Authors: Branden Heng, Harsheni Siddharthan, Allison Tseng, Paul Toprac, Sarah Abraham, Etienne Vouga

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The goal of this project was to evaluate and document the capabilities and limitations of AI tools for empowering small teams to create high-budget, high-profile (AAA) 3D games typically developed by large studios. Two teams of novice game developers attempted to create two different games using AI and Unreal Engine 5.3. First, the teams evaluated 60 AI art, design, sound, and programming tools by considering their capability, ease of use, cost, and license restrictions. Then, the teams used a shortlist of 12 AI tools for game development. During this process, the following tools were found to be the most productive: (i) ChatGPT 4.0 for both game and narrative concepts and documentation; (ii) Dall-E 3 and OpenArt for concept art; (iii) Beatoven for music drafting; (iv) ChatGPT 4.0 and Github Copilot for generating simple code and to complement human-made tutorials as an additional learning resource. While current generative AI may appear impressive at first glance, the assets they produce fall short of AAA industry standards. Generative AI tools are helpful when brainstorming ideas such as concept art and basic storylines, but they still cannot replace human input or creativity at this time. Regarding programming, AI can only effectively generate simple code and act as an additional learning resource. Thus, generative AI tools are, at best, tools to enhance developer productivity rather than as a system to replace developers.

Keywords: AAA games, AI, automation tools, game development

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Authors: Saowapa Phaithayawat

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The purposes of this study are: 1) to study the impact of the 3-community-core model: House (H), Temple (T), and School (S) with the co-operation of official departments on community development to ASEAN economic community involvement, and 2) to study the procedures and extension of the model. The research which is a qualitative research based on formal and informal interviews. Local people in a community are observed. Group interview is also operated by executors and cooperators in the school in the community. In terms of social and cultural dimension, the 3-community-core model consisting of house, temple and school is the base of Thai cultures bringing about understanding, happiness and unity to the community. The result of this research is that the official departments in accompanied with this model developers cooperatively work together in the community to support such factors as budget, plan, activities. Moreover, the need of community, and the continual result to sustain the community are satisfied by the model implementation. In terms of the procedures of the model implementation, executors and co-operators can work, coordinate, think, and launch their public relation altogether. Concerning the model development, this enables the community to achieve its goal to prepare the community’s readiness for ASEAN Economic Community involvement.

Keywords: ASEAN Economic Community, the applying models and sufficiency development, house, temple, school

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Authors: Bayu Rizky Pratama, Hardiansyah Nur Sahaya

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Riau Province is the worst emitter for forest burning which causes the huge scale of externality such as declining of forest habitat, health disease, and climate change impact. Indonesia forum of budget transparency for Riau Province (FITRA) reported the length of forest burning reached about 186.069 hectares which is 7,13% of total national forest burning disaster, consisted of 107.000 hectares of peatland and the rest 79.069 hectares of mineral land. Anti-fire group, a voluntary group next to the forest, to help in protecting the forest burning and heavily smoke residual has been established but unfortunately the implementation still far from expectation. This research will emphasize on (1) how the anti-fire group contribute to fire hazard tackling; (2) the identification of SWOT analysis to enhance the group benefit; and (3) government policy implication to maximize the role of Anti-fire group and reduce the case of forest burning as well as heavily smoke which can raise climate change impact. As the observation found some weakness from SWOT identification such as (1) lack of education and training; (2) facility in extinguishing the fire damage; (3) law for economic incentive; (4) communication and field experience; (5) also the reporting the fire case.

Keywords: anti-fire group, forest burning impact, SWOT, climate change mitigation

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Authors: Som Pal Baliyan

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The purpose of this quantitative study was to analyze farm management skills in broiler poultryproducers in Botswana. The study adopted a descriptive and correlation research design. The population of the study was the poultry farm operators who had been in broiler poultry farming at least for two years. Based on the information from literature, a questionnaire was constructed for data collection on seven areas of farm management skills namely; planning skills, accounting and financial management skills, production management skills, product procurement and marketing skills, decision making skills, risk management skills, and specific technical skills. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were accomplished by a panel of experts and by calculating the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, respectively. Data were collected through a survey of 60 randomly sampled poultry farm operators in Botswana. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistical tools whereby the level of farm management skills were determined by calculating means and standard deviations of the management skills among the broiler producers. The level of farm management skills in broilers producers was discussed. All the seven farm management skills were ranked based on their calculated means. The specific technical skills and risk management skills were the highest and the lowest ranked farm management skills, respectively.Findings revealed that the broiler producers had skills above the average level only in specific technical skills whereas the skill levels in the remaining six farm management skills under study were found below the average level. This prevailing low level of farm management skills can be justified asthe cause of failure or poor performance of the broiler poultry farms in Botswana. Therefore, in order to improve the efficiency and productivityin broiler production in the country, it was recommended that the broiler poultry producers should be adequately trained in areas of planning skills, financial management skills, production management skills, product procurement and marketing skills, decision making skills and risk management skills.

Keywords: poultry production, broiler production, management skills, levels of skills

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Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

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The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

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Authors: Lin Yanyan

Abstract:

This research set out to understand early childhood practitioners’ perceptions of continuous professional development (CPD) opportunities and its relationship to career progression and leadership roles in Singapore. The small-scale qualitative inductive study was conducted in two phases. Phase one used close-ended questionnaires with a total of 24 early years practitioner participants, while phase two included a total of 5 participants who were invited to participate in the second part of the data collection. Semi-structured interviews were used at phase two to elicit deeper responses from parents and teachers. Findings from the study were then thematically coded and analysed. The findings from both questionnaires and interviews showed that early years practitioners perceived CPD to be important to their professional growth, but there was no conclusive link that CPD necessarily led to the progression of leadership roles in the early years. Participants experience of CPD was strongly determined by their employer- the preschool operator, being government-funded or a private entity, which resulted in key differences emerging between their responses. Participants also experienced road blocks in their pursuit of CPD, in the form of staff shortage, budget constraints and lack of autonomy as their employers imposed specific CPD courses on them to suit the organisational needs, rather than their personal or professional needs.

Keywords: continuous professional development (CPD), early years practitioners (EYP), career progression, leadership

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Authors: Syed Noaman Shah

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The current paper evaluates the effect of external public debt risk on the borrowing cost of private non-financial firms in euro zone. Further, the study also treats the impact of austerity measures on syndicated-loan spreads of private firm followed by euro area member states to revive the economic growth in the region. To test these hypotheses, we follow multivariate ordinary least square estimation method to assess the effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firms. By using foreign syndicated-loan issuance data of non-financial private firms from 2005 to 2011, we attempt to gauge how the private financing cost varies with high levels of sovereign external debt prevalent in the euro zone. Our results suggest significant effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firm. In particular, an increase in external public debt by one standard deviation from its sample mean raises syndicated-loan spread by 89 bps. Furthermore, weak creditor rights protection prevalent in member states deepens this effect. However, we do not find any significant effect of domestic public debt on the private sector borrowing cost. In addition, the results show significant effect of austerity measures on private financing cost, both in normal and in crisis period in the euro zone. In particular, one standard deviation change in fiscal consolidation conditional mean reduces the syndicated-loan spread by 22 bps. In turn, it indicates strong presence of credibility channel due to austerity measures in euro area region.

Keywords: corporate debt, fiscal consolidation, sovereign debt, syndicated-loan spread

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Authors: Olakunle Felix Adekunle

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Risk management is recognised as an essential tool to tackle the inevitable uncertainty associated with business and projects at all levels. But it frequently fails to meet expectations, with projects continuing to run late, over budget or under performing, and business is not gaining the expected benefits. The evident disconnect which often occurs between strategic vision and tactical project delivery typically arises from poorly defined project objectives and inadequate attention to the proactive management of risks that could affect those objectives. One of the main failings in the traditional approach to risk management arises from a narrow focus on the downside, restricted to the technical or operational field, addressing tactical threats to processes, performance or people. This shortcoming can be overcome by widening the scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and upside opportunities, creating an integrated approach which can bridge the gap between strategy and tactics. Integrated risk management addresses risk across a variety of levels in the organisation, including strategy and tactics, and covering both opportunity and threat. Effective implementation of integrated risk management can produce a number of benefits to the organisation which are not available from the typical limited-scope risk process. This paper explores how to expand risk management to deliver strategic advantage while retaining its use as a tactical tool.

Keywords: risk management, success, organization, strategy, project, tactis, vision

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Authors: Rudolph Carl Barrientos, Juwaln Diego Descallar, Rainer James Palmiano

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Household Appliance Scheduling Systems (HASS) coupled with a Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing scheme, a form of Demand Side Management (DSM), is not widely utilized in the Philippines’ residential electricity sector. This paper’s goal is to encourage distribution utilities (DUs) to adopt HASS and TOU by analyzing the effect of household schedulers on the electricity price and load profile in a residential environment. To establish this, a city based on an implemented survey is generated using Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA). Then, a Binary Particle Swarm Optimization (BPSO) algorithm-based HASS is developed considering user satisfaction, electricity budget, appliance prioritization, energy storage systems, solar power, and electric vehicles. The simulations were assessed under varying levels of user compliance. Results showed that the average electricity cost, peak demand, and peak-to-average ratio (PAR) of the city load profile were all reduced. Therefore, the deployment of the HASS and TOU pricing scheme is beneficial for both stakeholders.

Keywords: appliance scheduling, DSM, TOU, BPSO, city-wide simulation, electric vehicle, appliance prioritization, energy storage system, solar power

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Authors: Alexandru-Ion Marinescu

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There exist a plethora of methods in the scientific literature which tackle the well-established task of credit score evaluation. In its most abstract form, a credit scoring algorithm takes as input several credit applicant properties, such as age, marital status, employment status, loan duration, etc. and must output a binary response variable (i.e. “GOOD” or “BAD”) stating whether the client is susceptible to payment return delays. Data imbalance is a common occurrence among financial institution databases, with the majority being classified as “GOOD” clients (clients that respect the loan return calendar) alongside a small percentage of “BAD” clients. But it is the “BAD” clients we are interested in since accurately predicting their behavior is crucial in preventing unwanted loss for loan providers. We add to this whole context the constraint that the algorithm must yield an actual, tractable mathematical formula, which is friendlier towards financial analysts. To this end, we have turned to genetic algorithms and genetic programming, aiming to evolve actual mathematical expressions using specially tailored mutation and crossover operators. As far as data representation is concerned, we employ a very flexible mechanism – LINQ expression trees, readily available in the C# programming language, enabling us to construct executable pieces of code at runtime. As the title implies, they model trees, with intermediate nodes being operators (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division) or mathematical functions (sin, cos, abs, round, etc.) and leaf nodes storing either constants or variables. There is a one-to-one correspondence between the client properties and the formula variables. The mutation and crossover operators work on a flattened version of the tree, obtained via a pre-order traversal. A consequence of our chosen technique is that we can identify and discard client properties which do not take part in the final score evaluation, effectively acting as a dimensionality reduction scheme. We compare ourselves with state of the art approaches, such as support vector machines, Bayesian networks, and extreme learning machines, to name a few. The data sets we benchmark against amount to a total of 8, of which we mention the well-known Australian credit and German credit data sets, and the performance indicators are the following: percentage correctly classified, area under curve, partial Gini index, H-measure, Brier score and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, respectively. Finally, we obtain encouraging results, which, although placing us in the lower half of the hierarchy, drive us to further refine the algorithm.

Keywords: expression trees, financial credit scoring, genetic algorithm, genetic programming, symbolic evolution

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Authors: M. Crozet, D. Roudil, T. Branger, S. Boden, P. Peerani, B. Russell, M. Herranz, L. Aldave de la Heras

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The EURATOM work program project INSIDER (Improved Nuclear Site Characterization for Waste minimization in Decommissioning under Constrained Environment) was launched in June 2017. This 4-year project has 18 partners and aims at improving the management of contaminated materials arising from decommissioning and dismantling (D&D) operations by proposing an integrated methodology of characterization. This methodology is based on advanced statistical processing and modelling, coupled with adapted and innovative analytical and measurement methods, with respect to sustainability and economic objectives. In order to achieve these objectives, the approaches will be then applied to common case studies in the form of Inter-laboratory comparisons on matrix representative reference samples and benchmarking. Work Package 6 (WP6) ‘Performance analysis and overall uncertainty’ is in charge of the analysis of the benchmarking on real samples, the organisation of inter-laboratory comparison on synthetic certified reference materials and the establishment of overall uncertainty budget. Assessment of the outcome will be used for providing recommendations and guidance resulting in pre-standardization tests.

Keywords: decommissioning, sampling strategy, research and development, characterization, European project

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Authors: Abhijeet Ostawal, Parmjit Lall

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The run times for a large strategic model that we were managing had become too long leading to delays in project delivery, increased costs and loss in productivity. Software developers are continuously working towards developing more efficient tools by changing their algorithms and processes. The issue faced by our team was how do you apply the latest technologies on validated existing models which are based on much older versions of software that do not have the latest software capabilities. The multi-model transport model that we had could only be run in sequential assignment order. Recent upgrades to the software now allowed the assignment to be run in parallel, a concept called parallelization. Parallelization is a Python script working only within the latest version of the software. A full model transfer to the latest version was not possible due to time, budget and the potential changes in trip assignment. This article is to show the method to adapt and update the Python script in such a way that it can be used in older software versions by calling the latest version and then recalling the old version for assignment model without affecting the results. Through a process of trial-and-error run time savings of up to 30-40% have been achieved. Assignment results were maintained within the older version and through this learning process we’ve applied this methodology to other even older versions of the software resulting in huge time savings, more productivity and efficiency for both client and consultant.

Keywords: model run time, demand model, parallelisation, python scripting

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Authors: Svetlana Bialkova, Marnix van Gisbergen

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Advanced Virtual Reality (VR) technologies offer compelling multisensory and interactive experiences applicable in various fields from education to entertainment. However, serious VR applications within the financial sector are scarce, and managing ‘real’ business services with(in) VR is a challenge inviting further investigation. The current research addresses this challenge, by exploring the key parameters influencing the VR business power and the development of appropriate VR applications in real financial business. We conducted profound investigation of both B2B and B2C needs, and how these could be met. In three studies, we have approached experts from leading international banks (finance to computer specialists), and their (potential) customers. Study 1 included focus group discussions with experts. First, participants could experience different VR devices such as Samsung Gear VR, then a structured discussion was held. The outcomes are analyzed and summarized in a portfolio. Study 2 further used the portfolio analyzer to profile the management of real business services with(in) VR. Again experts participated, where first being introduced with Samsung Gear, then experiencing it and being interviewed. Based on the outcomes, a survey was developed to interview (potential) customers and test ideas created (Study 3). The results suggest that developing proper system architectures to connect people and to connect devices is crucial for building up powerful business with(in) VR. From one side, connecting devices, e.g., pairing mobile Head Mounted Displays for VR with smart-phones and/or wearable technologies would be appropriate way “to have” customers anywhere, anytime with a brand and/or business. Developing VR Apps, providing detailed real time visualization of performance and infrastructure types could enable 3D VR navigation, 3D contents viewing, but also being opportunity for connecting people in collaborative platforms. The outcomes of the current research are summarized in a model which could be applied to unlock the real business power of VR.

Keywords: business power, B2B, B2C, VR applications

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Eric Wilson Santos Cabral, Marta Monteiro Da Costa Cruz, Fabio Luis Maciel Machado, Henrique Andrade, Rodrigo Pirola Pestana, Vivian Andrea Parreira

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The large variation in the price of diesel in Brazil directly affects the variable cost of companies operating in the transportation sector. In rail transport, the great challenge is to overcome the annual budget, cargo and ore transported with cost reduction in relation to previous years, becoming more efficient every year. Some effective measures are necessary to achieve the reduction of the liter ratio consumed by KTKB (Gross Ton per Kilometer multiplied by thousand). This acronym represents the indicator of energy efficiency of some railroads in the world. This study is divided into two parts: the first, to identify using statistical tools, part of the controlled variables in the railways, which have a correlation with the energy efficiency indicator, seeking to aid decision-making. The second, with the use of the train dynamics simulator, within scenarios defined in the operational reality of a railroad, seeks to optimize the train formations and the train stop model for the change of train drivers. With the completion of the study, companies in the rail sector are expected to be able to reduce some of their transportation costs.

Keywords: railway transport, railway simulation, energy efficiency, fuel consumption

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Authors: D. Naranchimeg, G. Ulziisaikhan

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Student dropout problem has not been recently investigated within the Mongolian higher education. A student dropping out is a personal decision, but it may cause unemployment and other social problems including low quality of life because students who are not completed a degree cannot find better-paid jobs. The research aims to determine percentage of at-risk students, and understand reasons for dropouts and to find a way to predict. The study based on the students of the Mongolian National University of Education including its Arkhangai branch school, National University of Mongolia, Mongolian University of Life Sciences, Mongolian University of Science and Technology, Mongolian National University of Medical Science, Ikh Zasag International University, and Dornod University. We conducted the paper survey by method of random sampling and have surveyed about 100 students per university. The margin of error - 4 %, confidence level -90%, and sample size was 846, but we excluded 56 students from this study. Causes for exclusion were missing data on the questionnaire. The survey has totally 17 questions, 4 of which was demographic questions. The survey shows that 1.4% of the students always thought to dropout whereas 61.8% of them thought sometimes. Also, results of the research suggest that students’ dropouts from university do not have relationships with their sex, marital and social status, and peer and faculty climate, whereas it slightly depends on their chosen specialization. Finally, the paper presents the reasons for dropping out provided by the students. The main two reasons for dropouts are personal reasons related with choosing wrong study program, not liking the course they had chosen (50.38%), and financial difficulties (42.66%). These findings reveal the importance of early prevention of dropout where possible, combined with increased attention to high school students in choosing right for them study program, and targeted financial support for those who are at risk.

Keywords: at risk students, dropout, faculty climate, Mongolian universities, peer climate

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed

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In this paper, flood issues in Gujranwala and Rawalpindi divisions are discussed as a primary importance as these zones are affected continuously from flooding in recent years, provincial variability of the issue, introduce status of the continuous administration measures, their adequacy and future needs in flood administration are secured. Flood issues in these zones are exhibited by Chenab River Basin, Jhelum Rivers Basin. Some unique problems, related to floods in these divisions is lack of major dams on Chenab and Jhelum rivers and also mismanagement of rivers and canal water like dam break stream, and water signing in Tal zones, are additionally mentioned. There are major Nalaas in these regions like Nalaa Lai of Rawalpindi and Nalaa Daik, Nalaa Palkhu, Nalaa Aik of Gujranwala are major cause of floods in these regions other than rivers. Proper management of these Nalaas and moving of nearby population well in time could reduce impacts from flood in these regions. Progress of different flood administration measures, both auxiliary and non-basic, are discussed. Likewise, future needs to accomplish proficient and fruitful flood management measures in Pakistan are additionally brought up. In this paper, we describe different hard and soft engineering techniques to overcome flood situations in these zones as these zones are more vulnerable due to lack of management in canal and river water. Effective management and use of hard and soft techniques are need of time in coming future for controlling greater flooding in flood risk zones to overcome or minimize people’s death as well as agricultural and financial resources as flood and other natural disasters are a major drawback in the economic prosperity of the country.

Keywords: flood management, rivers, major dams, agricultural and financial loss, future management and control

Procedia PDF Downloads 196