Search results for: extended kalman filtering

Authors: Olga Biedova, Victoria Steblovskaya, Kai Wallbaum

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In the current capital market environment, investors constantly face the challenge of finding a successful and stable investment mechanism. Highly volatile equity markets and extremely low bond returns bring about the demand for sophisticated yet reliable risk management strategies. Investors are looking for risk management solutions to efficiently protect their investments. This study compares a classic Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategy to a Volatility Target portfolio insurance (VTPI). VTPI is an extension of the well-known Option Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) to the case where an embedded option is linked not to a pure risky asset such as e.g., S&P 500, but to a Volatility Target (VolTarget) portfolio. VolTarget strategy is a recently emerged rule-based dynamic asset allocation mechanism where the portfolio’s volatility is kept under control. As a result, a typical VTPI strategy allows higher participation rates in the market due to reduced embedded option prices. In addition, controlled volatility levels eliminate the volatility spread in option pricing, one of the frequently cited reasons for OBPI strategy fall behind CPPI. The strategies are compared within the framework of the stochastic dominance theory based on numerical simulations, rather than on the restrictive assumption of the Black-Scholes type dynamics of the underlying asset. An extended comparative quantitative analysis of performances of the above investment strategies in various market scenarios and within a range of input parameter values is presented.

Keywords: CPPI, portfolio insurance, stochastic dominance, volatility target

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

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There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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Authors: R. Bakr, M. Elmeligy, A. Ibrahim

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When the building loads are relatively small, challenges are often facing the foundation design especially when inappropriate soil conditions exist. These may be represented in the existence of soft soil in the upper layers of soil while sandy soil or firm cohesive soil exist in the deeper layers. In such cases, the design becomes infeasible if the piles are extended to the deeper layers, especially when there are sandy layers existing at shallower depths underlain by stiff clayey soil. In this research, models of piles terminated in sand underlain by clay soils are numerically simulated by different modelling theories. Finite element software, Plaxis 3-D Foundation was used to evaluate the pile behavior under different loading scenarios. The standard static load test according to ASTM D-1143 was simulated and compared with the real-life loading scenario. The results showed that the pile behavior obtained from the current static load test do not realistically represent that obtained from real-life loading. Attempts were carried out to capture the proper numerical loading scenario that simulates the pile behavior in real-life loading including the long-term effect. A modified method based on this research findings is proposed for the static pile loading tests. Field loading tests were carried out to validate the new method. Results obtained from both numerical and field tests by using the modified method prove that this method is more accurate in predicting the pile behavior in sand soil underlain by clay more than the current standard static load.

Keywords: numerical simulation, static load test, pile behavior, sand underlain with clay, creep

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Authors: Adam Y. Sulaiman, Donal F. Cotter, Ming J. Huang, Neil J. Hewitt

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Decarbonization of the industrial sector in developed countries has become indispensable for addressing climate change. Industrial processes including drying, distillation, and injection molding require a process heat exceeding 180°C, rendering the subcriticalHigh-Temperature heat pump(HTHP) technique unsuitable. A transcritical HTHP utilizing ecologically friendly working fluids is a highly recommended system that incorporates the features of high-energy efficiency, extended operational range, and decarbonizing the industrial sector. This paper delves into the possibility and feasibility of leveraging the HTTP system to provide up to 200°C of heat using R1233zd(E) as a working fluid. Using a steady-state model, various transcritical HTHP cycle configurations aretheoretically compared,analyzed, and evaluatedin this study. The heat transfer characteristics for the evaporator and gas cooler are investigated, as well as the cycle's energy, exergetic, and environmental performance. Using the LMTD method, the gas cooler's heat transfer coefficient, overall length, and heat transfer area were calculated. The findings indicate that the heat sink pressure level, as well as the waste heat temperature provided to the evaporator, have a significant impact on overall cycle performance. The investigation revealed the potential challenges and barriers, including the length of the gas cooler and the lubrication of the compression process. The basic transcritical HTTP cycle with additional IHX was demonstrated to be the most efficient cycle across a variety of heat source temperatures ranging from 70 to 90 °C based on theoretical energetic and exergetic performance.

Keywords: high-temperature heat pump, transcritical cycle, refrigerants, gas cooler, energy, exergy

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Authors: Fundime Miri, Emanuela Sulaj

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Benthic ecosystems constitute important ecological habitats, providing fundamental services for spawning, foraging, and sheltering aquatic organisms. Benthic faunal communities are characterized by a large biological diversity, supported by a great physical variety of benthic habitats. Until late, the study of meiobenthic communities in Albania has been neglectedthus excluding an important component of benthos. The present study aims to bring characteristics of distribution pattern of meiofaunal communities with further focus on nematode genus-based diversity from different intertidal habitats along Albanian Adriatic Sea Coast. The investigation area is extended from Shkodra to Vlora District, including six sandy sampling sites in beaches and areas near river estuaries. Sediment samples were collected manually in low intertidal zone by using a cylindrical corer, with an internal diameter of 5 cm. The richness onmeiofaunalmajor taxon level did not show any significant change between different sampling sites compare to significant changes in nematode diversity at genus level, with distinct nematode assemblages per sampling sites and presence of exclusive genera. All meiofaunal communities under study were dominated by nematodes. Further assessment of functional diversity on nematode assemblages exhibited changes as well on trophic groups and life strategies due to diverse feeding behaviors and c-p values of nematode genera. This study emphasize the need for lower level taxonomic identification of meiofaunal organisms and extending of ecological assessments on trophic diversity and life strategies to understanding functional consequences.

Keywords: benthos, meiofauna, nematode genus-based diversity, functional diversity, intertidal, albanian adriatic coast

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Authors: Martha Berg, Megan Ramaiya, Andi Schmidt, Susanna Sharma, Brandon Kohrt

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Nepali adolescents report tension and negative emotion due to perceived expectations of both academic and social achievement. These societal goals, which are internalized through early-life socialization, drive the development of self-regulatory processes such as emotion regulation. Emotion dysregulation is linked with adverse psychological outcomes such as depression, self-harm, and suicide, which are public health concerns for organizations working with Nepali adolescents. This study examined the relation among socialization, internalized cultural goals, and emotion regulation to inform interventions for reducing depression and suicide in this population. Participants included 102 students in grades 7 through 9 in a post-earthquake school setting in rural Kathmandu valley. All participants completed a tablet-based battery of quantitative measures, comprising transculturally adapted assessments of emotion regulation, depression, and self-harm/suicide ideation and behavior. Qualitative measures included two focus groups and semi-structured interviews with 22 students and 3 parents. A notable proportion of the sample reported depression symptoms in the past 2 weeks (68%), lifetime self-harm ideation (28%), and lifetime suicide attempts (13%). Students who lived with their nuclear family reported lower levels of difficulty than those who lived with more distant relatives (z=2.16, p=.03), which suggests a link between family environment and adolescent emotion regulation, potentially mediated by socialization and internalization of cultural goals. These findings call for further research into the aspects of nuclear versus extended family environments that shape the development of emotion regulation.

Keywords: adolescent mental health, emotion regulation, Nepal, socialization

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Authors: Ziyue Zeng

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Bacteriophages are viruses which infect bacteria specifically. Over the past decades, phage λ has been extensively studied, especially its interaction with the Escherichia coli LamB (EcLamB) protein receptor. Nonetheless, despite the enormous numbers and near-ubiquity of environmental phages, aside from phage λ, there is a paucity of information on other phages which target EcLamB as a receptor. In this study, to answer the question of whether there are other EcLamB-targeting phages in the natural environment, a simple and convenient method was developed and used for isolating environmental phages which target a particular surface structure of a particular bacterium; in this case, the EcLamB outer membrane protein. From the enrichments with the engineered bacterial hosts, a collection of EcLamB-targeting phages (ΦZZ phages) were easily isolated. Intriguingly, unlike phage λ, an obligate EcLamB-dependent phage in the Siphoviridae family, the newly isolated ΦZZ phages alternatively recognised EcLamB or E. coli OmpC (EcOmpC) as a receptor when infecting E. coli. Furthermore, ΦZZ phages were suggested to represent new species in the Tequatrovirus genus in the Myoviridae family, based on phage morphology and genomic sequences. Most phages are thought to have a narrow host range due to their exquisite specificity in receptor recognition. With the ability to optionally recognise two receptors, ΦZZ phages were considered relatively promiscuous. Via the heterologous expression of EcLamB on the bacterial cell surface, the host range of ΦZZ phages was further extended to three different enterobacterial genera. Besides, an interesting selection of evolved phage mutants with a broader host range was isolated, and the key mutations involved in their evolution to adapt to new hosts were investigated by genomic analysis. Finally, and importantly, two ΦZZ phages were found to be putative generalised transducers, which could be exploited as tools for DNA manipulations.

Keywords: environmental microbiology, phage, microbe-host interactions, microbial ecology

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Authors: Ning Chang, Zelong Yuan, Yunpeng Wang, Jianchun Wang

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The utilization of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) has been extensive in turbulence research. LES concentrates on resolving the significant grid-scale motions while representing smaller scales through subfilter-scale (SFS) models. The deconvolution model, among the available SFS models, has proven successful in LES of engineering and geophysical flows. Nevertheless, the thorough investigation of how sub-filter scale dynamics and filter anisotropy affect SFS modeling accuracy remains lacking. The outcomes of LES are significantly influenced by filter selection and grid anisotropy, factors that have not been adequately addressed in earlier studies. This study examines two crucial aspects of LES: Firstly, the accuracy of direct deconvolution models (DDM) is evaluated concerning sub-filter scale (SFS) dynamics across varying filter-to-grid ratios (FGR) in isotropic turbulence. Various invertible filters are employed, including Gaussian, Helmholtz I and II, Butterworth, Chebyshev I and II, Cauchy, Pao, and rapidly decaying filters. The importance of FGR becomes evident as it plays a critical role in controlling errors for precise SFS stress prediction. When FGR is set to 1, the DDM models struggle to faithfully reconstruct SFS stress due to inadequate resolution of SFS dynamics. Notably, prediction accuracy improves when FGR is set to 2, leading to accurate reconstruction of SFS stress, except for cases involving Helmholtz I and II filters. Remarkably high precision, nearly 100%, is achieved at an FGR of 4 for all DDM models. Furthermore, the study extends to filter anisotropy and its impact on SFS dynamics and LES accuracy. By utilizing the dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), dynamic mixed model (DMM), and direct deconvolution model (DDM) with anisotropic filters, aspect ratios (AR) ranging from 1 to 16 are examined in LES filters. The results emphasize the DDM’s proficiency in accurately predicting SFS stresses under highly anisotropic filtering conditions. Notably high correlation coefficients exceeding 90% are observed in the a priori study for the DDM’s reconstructed SFS stresses, surpassing those of the DSM and DMM models. However, these correlations tend to decrease as filter anisotropy increases. In the a posteriori analysis, the DDM model consistently outperforms the DSM and DMM models across various turbulence statistics, including velocity spectra, probability density functions related to vorticity, SFS energy flux, velocity increments, strainrate tensors, and SFS stress. It is evident that as filter anisotropy intensifies, the results of DSM and DMM deteriorate, while the DDM consistently delivers satisfactory outcomes across all filter-anisotropy scenarios. These findings underscore the potential of the DDM framework as a valuable tool for advancing the development of sophisticated SFS models for LES in turbulence research.

Keywords: deconvolution model, large eddy simulation, subfilter scale modeling, turbulence

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Authors: Richard G. Boakye, Dara A Stanley, Mathavan Vickneswaran, Blanaid White

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The cultivation of cocoa (Theobroma cocoa), an important cash crop that contributes immensely towards the economic growth of several Western African countries, depends almost entirely on pesticide application owing to the plant’s vulnerability to pest and disease attacks. However, the extent to which pesticides inputted for cocoa cultivation impact bees and bee products has rarely received attention in research. Through this study, the effects of pesticides applied for cocoa cultivation on honey in Ghana were examined by evaluating honey samples from cocoa and forest ecosystems in Ghana. An analysis of five honey samples from each land use type confirmed pesticide contaminants from these land use types at measured concentrations for acetamiprid (0.051mg/kg); imidacloprid (0.004-0.02 mg/kg), thiamethoxam (0.013-0.017 mg/kg); indoxacarb (0.004-0.045 mg/kg) and sulfoxaflor (0.004-0.026 mg/kg). None of the observed pesticide concentrations exceeded EU maximum residue levels, indicating no compromise of the honey quality for human consumption. However, from the results, it could be inferred that toxic effects on bees may not be ruled out because observed concentrations largely exceeded the threshold of 0.001 mg/kg at which sublethal effects on bees have previously been reported. One of the most remarkable results to emerge from this study is the detection of imidacloprid in all honey samples analyzed, with sulfoxaflor and thiamethoxam also being detected in 93% and 73% of the honey samples, respectively. This suggests the probable prevalence of pesticide use in the landscape. However, the conclusions reached in this study should be interpreted within the scope of pesticide applications within Bia West District and not necessarily extended to other cocoa-producing districts in Ghana. Future studies should therefore include multiple cocoa-growing districts and other non-cocoa farming landscapes. Such an approach can give a broader outlook on pesticide residues in honey produced in Ghana.

Keywords: honey, cocoa, pesticides, bees, land use, landscape, residues, Ghana

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Authors: Anthony Oppong Kyekyeku, Sussana Antwi-Boasiako, Emmanuel De-Graft Johnson Owusu Ansah

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In this observational study, the performance of a known conventional storage system was tested and evaluated for fitness for its intended purpose. The system has a scope extended for the storage of dry cocoa beans. System sensitivity, reproducibility and uncertainties are not known in details. This study discusses the system performance in the context of existing literature on factors that influence the quality of cocoa beans during storage. Controlled conditions were defined precisely for the system to give reliable base line within specific established procedures. Minitab® 17 and R statistical software (R-3.3.1) were used for the statistical analyses. The approach to the storage system testing was to observe and compare through laboratory test methods the quality of the cocoa beans samples before and after storage. The samples were kept in Kilner jars and the temperature of the storage environment controlled and monitored over a period of 408 days. Standard test methods use in international trade of cocoa such as the cut test analysis, moisture determination with Aqua boy KAM III model and bean count determination were used for quality assessment. The data analysis assumed the entire population as a sample in order to establish a reliable baseline to the data collected. The study concluded a statistically significant mean value at 95% Confidence Interval (CI) for the performance data analysed before and after storage for all variables observed. Correlational graphs showed a strong positive correlation for all variables investigated with the exception of All Other Defect (AOD). The weak relationship between the before and after data for AOD had an explained variability of 51.8% with the unexplained variability attributable to the uncontrolled condition of hidden infestation before storage. The current study concluded with a high-performance criterion for the storage system.

Keywords: benchmarking performance data, cocoa beans, hidden infestation, storage system validation

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Authors: Jacky Liu

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This paper develops a team sports outcome prediction system with potential for wide-ranging applications across various disciplines. Despite significant advancements in predictive analytics, existing studies in sports outcome predictions possess considerable limitations, including insufficient feature engineering and underutilization of advanced machine learning techniques, among others. To address these issues, we extend the Sports Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (SRP-CRISP-DM) framework and propose a unique, comprehensive predictive system, using National Basketball Association (NBA) data as an example to test this extended framework. Our approach follows a holistic methodology in feature engineering, employing both Time Series and Non-Time Series Data, as well as conducting Explanatory Data Analysis and Feature Selection. Furthermore, we contribute to the discourse on target variable choice in team sports outcome prediction, asserting that point spread prediction yields higher profits as opposed to game-winner predictions. Using machine learning algorithms, particularly XGBoost, results in a significant improvement in predictive accuracy of team sports outcomes. Applied to point spread betting strategies, it offers an astounding annual return of approximately 900% on an initial investment of $100. Our findings not only contribute to academic literature, but have critical practical implications for sports betting. Our study advances the understanding of team sports outcome prediction a burgeoning are in complex system predictions and pave the way for potential profitability and more informed decision making in sports betting markets.

Keywords: machine learning, team sports, game outcome prediction, sports betting, profits simulation

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Authors: Saba Amreen Syeda, Summaiah Asim, Syeda, Hafsa, Essam Quraishi

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Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL) is a relatively uncommon type of lymphoma that comprises approximately 7 percent of non hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL), Classic MCL presents mostly in lymph nodes and occasionally in extranodal sites. About 26 % of MCL is present primarily in the Gastrointestinal tract. While both the upper GI tract and the lower GI tract could be involved, it is rare to present with concurrent upper and lower GI involvement with MCL. We present the case of a 51-year-old Asian Indian male that presented to our clinic with complaints of chronic diarrhea for the last one year, progressively worsening over the past three months. The Patient also reported black stool as well as bright red blood per rectum. Patient reported severe fatigue on minimal exertion. On a physical exam, the patient was noted to have matted lymphadenopathy in the neck. Patient was noted to be anemic with a hemoglobin to be 8 g/dl. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy and colonoscopy was performed. EGD showed a large 4 cm ulcer in the gastric antrum with thick heaped up edges. There was bleeding on contact. Colonoscopy showed a large 35 mm multilobulated polyp in the ascending colon, which was biopsied. The patient was also noted to have nodular proctitis in the mid rectum. This was localized and extended to about 5 cm. This area was biopsied as well. Biopsies from the stomach, colon, as well as the rectum, returned with findings of mantle cell lymphoma on pathology. Lymphoid cells in the biopsy were stained strongly positive for CD 20, cyclin D1, and CD 5. There was the absence of stain for CD 3 and CD 10. The IHC stain for CD 23 was negative. Biopsies from neck LAD were obtained and were also positive for MCL. The patient was referred to oncology for staging and treatment.

Keywords: mantle cell lymphoma, GI bleed, diarrhea, gastric ulcer, colon polyp

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Authors: Alejandro Molina-Villegas, Silvia Fernández-Sabido, Eduardo Mendoza-Vargas, Fátima Miranda-Pestaña

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The automatic detection of indigenous languages ​​in digital texts is essential to promote their inclusion in digital media. Underrepresented languages, such as Maya, are often excluded from language detection tools like Google’s language-detection library, LANGDETECT. This study addresses these limitations by developing a hybrid language detection solution that accurately distinguishes Maya (YUA) from Spanish (ES). Two strategies are employed: the first focuses on creating a profile for the Maya language within the LANGDETECT library, while the second involves training a Naive Bayes classification model with two categories, YUA and ES. The process includes comprehensive data preprocessing steps, such as cleaning, normalization, tokenization, and n-gram counting, applied to text samples collected from various sources, including articles from La Jornada Maya, a major newspaper in Mexico and the only media outlet that includes a Maya section. After the training phase, a portion of the data is used to create the YUA profile within LANGDETECT, which achieves an accuracy rate above 95% in identifying the Maya language during testing. Additionally, the Naive Bayes classifier, trained and tested on the same database, achieves an accuracy close to 98% in distinguishing between Maya and Spanish, with further validation through F1 score, recall, and logarithmic scoring, without signs of overfitting. This strategy, which combines the LANGDETECT profile with a Naive Bayes model, highlights an adaptable framework that can be extended to other underrepresented languages in future research. This fills a gap in Natural Language Processing and supports the preservation and revitalization of these languages.

Keywords: indigenous languages, language detection, Maya language, Naive Bayes classifier, natural language processing, low-resource languages

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Authors: Tsai Yu-hsin, Chung Yi-Hsin

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The employment of an HSR system, resulting in elevation in the inter-city/-region accessibility, is likely to promote spatial interaction between places in the HSR and extended territory. The inter-city/-region travel via HSR could be, among others, affected by the land use, transportation, and location of the HSR station at both trip origin and destination ends. However, relatively few insights have been shed on these impacts and spatial patterns of the HSR travel. The research purposes, as phase one of a series of HSR related research, of this study are threefold: to analyze the general spatial patterns of HSR trips, such as the spatial distribution of trip origins and destinations; to analyze if specific land use, transportation characteristics, and trip characteristics affect HSR trips in terms of the use of HSR, the distribution of trip origins and destinations, and; to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of HSR travelers. With the Taiwan HSR starting operation in 2007, this study emphasizes on the intermediate-term impact of HSR, which is made possible with the population and housing census and industry and commercial census data and a station area intercept survey conducted in the summer 2014. The analysis will be conducted at the city, inter-city, and inter-region spatial levels, as necessary and required. The analysis tools include descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis with the assistance of SPSS, HLM and ArcGIS. The findings, on the one hand, can provide policy implications for associated land use, transportation plan and the site selection of HSR station. On the other hand, on the travel the findings are expected to provide insights that can help explain how land use and real estate values could be affected by HSR in following phases of this series of research.

Keywords: high speed rail, land use, travel, spatial pattern

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Authors: Ghulamhossein Nezami

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Civilizations based in Iran, especially in the south, have always realized the all-around importance of the Persian Sea and for various reasons, have paid full attention to it. The first of these was the pre-Aryan government, Ilam in the coastal province of Sharihum and the city of Lian (now the port of Bushehr) in terms of trade, defense and religion. With the establishment of the Achaemenids on the entire plateau of Iran to the center of Persia, they created several communication routes from Parseh to the shores of the Persian Gulf, which ended in the present Bushehr province. This coastal area was extended by a road in the coastal plain to the more southern parts of the ports of Ausinze - according to Ptolemy the port of Siraf before the Sassanids - and Epstane and Hormozia in the present-day Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the ancient city of Temukknana, whose new historical documents testify to its extraordinary importance in the Achaemenid period, especially Darius I of the Achaemenids, from a strategic position with the coastal areas, the coasts and on the other hand with the gamers, the political center. - Achaemenid administration, had. New archeological evidence, research, and excavations show that both the famous Achaemenid kings and courtiers paid special attention to Tamukknana. The discovery of a tomb and three Achaemenid palaces from before the reign of Cyrus to Xerxes in this region showed the importance of the strategic, security-defense and commercial position of this region, extraordinary for the Achaemenids. Therefore, the city of Temukkana in the Dashtestan region of present-day Bushehr province became an important Achaemenid center on the Persian Gulf coast and became the political-economic center of gravity of the Achaemenids and the regulator of communication networks on the Persian Gulf coast. This event showed that the Achaemenids attached importance to their economic goals and oversight of their vast territory by the Persian Gulf. Methods: Book resources and field study.

Keywords: Achaemenids, Bushehr, Persian Gulf, Tamukkana

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Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

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Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters

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Authors: Colm Barcoe, Garvan Whelan

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Over the past five years, visitations of American holidaymakers to Ireland have grown exponentially owing to the online strategies of Tourism Ireland, a Destination Marketer (DMO) with a meagre budget which is extended by their understanding of best practices to maximise their monetary allowance. This suggested framework incorporates a range of Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) such as financial, marketing, and operational that offer a scale of measurement from which the Irish DMO can monitor the success of each promotional campaign when targeting the US and Canada. These are presented not as final solutions but rather as suggestions based on empirical evidence obtained from both primary and secondary sources. This research combines the wisdom extracted through qualitative methodologies with the objective of understanding the processes that drive both emergent and agile strategies. The Study extends the work relative to performance and examines the role of social media in the context of promoting Ireland to North America. There are two main themes that are identified and analysed in this investigation, these are the approach of the DMO when advocating Ireland as a brand and the benefits of digital platforms set against a proposed scale of KPIs, such as destination marketing, brand positioning, and identity development. The key narrative of this analysis is to focus on the power of social media when capitalising upon marketing opportunities, operating on a relatively small budget. This will always be a relevant theme of discussion due to the responsibility of an organisation like Tourism Ireland operating under the restraints imposed by government funding. The overall conclusions of this research may help inform those concerned with the implementing of social media strategies develop clearer models of measurement when promoting a destination to North America. The suggestions of this study will benefit small and medium enterprises particularly.

Keywords: destination marketing, framework, measure, performance

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Authors: Dimpy Shah

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The global economy has substantially changed in last three decades. Now almost all markets are transparent and visible for global customers. The corporates are now no more reliant on local markets for trade. The information technology revolution has changed business dynamics and marketing practices of corporate. The markets are divided into two different formats: traditional and virtual. In very short span of time, many e-commerce portals have captured global market. This strategy is well supported by global delivery system of multinational logistic companies. Now the markets are dealing with global supply chain networks, which are more demand driven and customer oriented. The corporate have realized importance of supply chain integration and marketing in this competitive environment. The Indian markets are also significantly affected with all these changes. In terms of population, India is in second place after China. In terms of demography, almost half of the population is of youth. It has been observed that the Indian youth are more inclined towards e-commerce and prefer to buy goods from web portal. Initially, this trend was observed in Indian service sector, textile and electronic goods and now further extended in other product categories. The FMCG companies have also recognized this change and started integration of their supply chain with e-commerce platform. This paper attempts to understand contemporary marketing practices of corporate in e-commerce business in Indian food and beverages segment and also tries to identify innovative marketing practices for proper execution of their strategies. The findings are mainly focused on supply chain re-integration and brand building strategies with proper utilization of social media.

Keywords: FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods), ISCM (Integrated supply chain management), RFID (Radio Frequency Identification), traditional and virtual formats

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Authors: Munmunlisa Mohanty, K. D. Raju

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Rail industry is one of the model employers in India has separate national legislation (Railways Act 1989) to regulate its vast employment structure, functioning across the country. Indian Railway is not only the premier transport industry of the country; indeed, it is Asia’s most extensive rail network organisation and the world’s second-largest industry functioning under one management. With the growth of globalization of industrial products, the scope of anti-employment discrimination is no more confined to gender aspect only; instead, it extended to the unregularized classification of labour force applicable in the various industrial establishments in India. And the Indian Rail Industry inadvertently enhanced such discriminatory employment trends by engaging contractual labour in an unprecedented manner. The engagement of contractual labour by rail industry vanished the core “Employer-Employee” relationship between rail management and contractual labour who employed through the contractor. This employment trend reduces the cost of production and supervision, discourages the contractual labour from forming unions, and reduces its collective bargaining capacity. So, the primary intention of this paper is to highlight the increasing discriminatory employment scope for contractual labour engaged by Indian Railways. This paper critically analyses the diminishing perspective of anti-employment opportunity practiced by Indian Railways towards contractual labour and demands an urgent outlook on the probable scope of anti-employment discrimination against contractual labour engaged by Indian Railways. The researcher used doctrinal methodology where primary materials (Railways Act, Contract Labour Act and Occupational, health and Safety Code, 2020) and secondary data (CAG Report 2018, Railways Employment Regulation Rules, ILO Report etc.) are used for the paper.

Keywords: anti-employment, CAG Report, contractual labour, discrimination, Indian Railway, principal employer

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Authors: O. O. Oguntoye

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Product consumption constitutes an important consideration for sustainable development. Seeing how product consumption could be highly unsustainable, coupled with how existing policies on corporate responsibility do not particularly address the consumption aspect of product lifecycle, conducting this research became necessary. The research makes an attempt to provide a framework by which to gauge corporate responsibility of product suppliers in terms of their commitment towards the sustainable consumption of their products. Through an exploration of relevant literature, independently established ideas with which to assess a given product supplier were galvanised into a four-criterion framework. The criteria are: (1) Embeddedness of consumption as a factor in corporate sustainability policy, (2) Level of understanding of consumption behaviour, (3) Breadth of behaviour-influencing strategies adopted, and (4) Inclusiveness for all main dimensions of sustainability. This resulting framework was then applied in a case study involving a UK-based furniture supplier where interviews and content analysis of corporate documents were used as the mode for primary data collection. From the case study, it was found that the supplier had performed to different levels across the four themes of the assessment. Two major areas for improvement were however identified – one is for the furniture supplier to focus more proactively on understanding consumption behaviour and, two is for it to widen the scope of its current strategies for enhancing sustainable consumption of supplied furniture. As a generalisation, the framework presented here makes it possible for companies to reflect with a sense of guidance, how they have demonstrated commitment towards sustainable consumption through their values, culture, and operations. It also provides a foundation for developing standardized assessment which the current widely used frameworks such as the GRI, the Global Compact, and others do not cover. While these popularly used frameworks mainly focus on sustainability of companies within the production and supply chain management contexts (i.e. mostly ‘upstream’), the framework here provides an extension by bringing the ‘downstream’ or consumer bit into light.

Keywords: corporate sustainability, design for sustainable consumption, extended producer responsibility, sustainable consumer behaviour

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Authors: Beata Patuszynska

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Children are largely absent from Polish social discourse, a fact which is mirrored in urban planning processes. Their absence creates a vicious circle – an unfriendly urban space discourages children from going outside on their own, meaning adults do not see a need to make spaces more friendly for a group, not present. The pandemic and lockdown, with their closed schools and temporary ban on unaccompanied minors on the streets, have only reinforced this. The project – co-writing with children a book concerning their first steps into urban independence - aims at empowering children, enabling them to find their voice when it comes to urban space. The foundation for the book was data collected during research and workshops with children from Warsaw primary schools, aged 7-10 - the age they begin independent travel in the city. The project was carried out with the participation and involvement of children at each creative step. Children were (1) models: the narrator is an 7-year-old boy getting ready for urban independence. He shares his experience as well as the experience of his school friends and his 10-year-old sister, who already travels on her own. Children were (2) teachers: the book is based on authentic children’s stories and experience, along with the author’s findings from research undertaken with children. The material was extended by observations and conclusions made during the pandemic. Children were (3) reviewers: a series of draft chapters from the book underwent review by children during workshops performed in a school. The process demonstrated that all children experience similar pleasures and worries when it comes to interaction with urban space. Furthermore, they also have similar needs that need satisfying. In my article, I will discuss; (1) the advantages of creating together with children; (2) my conclusions on how to work with children in participatory processes; (3) research results: perceptions of urban space by children age 7-10, when they begin their independent travel in the city; the barriers to and pleasures derived from independent urban travel; the influence of the pandemic on children’s feelings and their behaviour in urban spaces.

Keywords: children, urban space, co-creation, participation, human rights

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Authors: Hitesh Gupta, Surender Dabas

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TORS is increasingly gaining widespread use and has been explored as minimally invasive surgery for the treatment of supraglottic cancer (SGC). Being a central critical role of Supraglottis in deglutition, swallowing outcomes post TORS remain a most important factor. Available published studies show inconsistent swallowing outcomes and are deficient in standardized outcome measures, description of swallowing recovery and rehabilitation. So, the objective of this study is to find out swallowing outcomes in SGC patients after TORS provided with early dysphagia management using standardized measures. Prospectively 16 patients were recruited in the study who underwent TORS for primary tumor of Supraglottis, involving one or more sub-sites or invading to sites other than Supraglottis at the BLK Super Specialty Hospital, New Delhi from March 2019 to June 2020. All patients were evaluated for dysphagia with subsequent swallowing rehabilitation on post operative day 3 in the hospital or at the time of discharge, whichever was earlier. Functional oral intake scale (FOIS) and penetration-aspiration score (PAS) were used as outcome measures to quantify swallowing recovery at one month and six month post operatively. Post TORS, patients achieved functional swallow in less than one month, where resection was limited to Supraglottis, while the recovery was delayed in patients with extended resection to tongue base or hypopharynx. Overall, out of Total 16 cases including all supraglottis sub-catagories, 13 (81%) could remove their NG tube (FOIS ≥5 and PAS=1 ) within 6 months. In which 8 cases(62%) achieved functional swallow in less than one month. Swallowing outcomes post TORS supraglottic laryngectomy are favorable if provided with early dysphagia management (or swallowing rehabilitation).

Keywords: dysphagia, supraglottic cancer, swallowing, TORS

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Authors: Jurriaan Gillissen

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This work is concerned with stabilizing the numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equation (NSE), backwards in time. Applications involve the detection of sources of, e.g., sound, heat, and pollutants. Stable reverse numerical integration of parabolic differential equations is also relevant for image de-blurring. While the literature addresses the reverse integration problem of the advection-diffusion equation, the problem of numerical reverse integration of the NSE has, to our knowledge, not yet been addressed. Owing to the presence of viscosity, the NSE is irreversible, i.e., when going backwards in time, the fluid behaves, as if it had a negative viscosity. As an effect, perturbations from the perfect solution, due to round off errors or discretization errors, grow exponentially in time, and reverse integration of the NSE is inherently unstable, regardless of using an implicit time integration scheme. Consequently, some sort of filtering is required, in order to achieve a stable, numerical, reversed integration. The challenge is to find a filter with a minimal adverse affect on the accuracy of the reversed integration. In the present work, we explore an adjoint gradient method (AGM) to achieve this goal, and we apply this technique to two-dimensional (2D), decaying turbulence. The AGM solves for the initial velocity field u0 at t = 0, that, when integrated forward in time, produces a final velocity field u1 at t = 1, that is as close as is feasibly possible to some specified target field v1. The initial field u0 defines a minimum of a cost-functional J, that measures the distance between u1 and v1. In the minimization procedure, the u0 is updated iteratively along the gradient of J w.r.t. u0, where the gradient is obtained by transporting J backwards in time from t = 1 to t = 0, using the adjoint NSE. The AGM thus effectively replaces the backward integration by multiple forward and backward adjoint integrations. Since the viscosity is negative in the adjoint NSE, each step of the AGM is numerically stable. Nevertheless, when applied to turbulence, the AGM develops instabilities, which limit the backward integration to small times. This is due to the exponential divergence of phase space trajectories in turbulent flow, which produces a multitude of local minima in J, when the integration time is large. As an effect, the AGM may select unphysical, noisy initial conditions. In order to improve this situation, we propose two remedies. First, we replace the integration by a sequence of smaller integrations, i.e., we divide the integration time into segments, where in each segment the target field v1 is taken as the initial field u0 from the previous segment. Second, we add an additional term (regularizer) to J, which is proportional to a high-order Laplacian of u0, and which dampens the gradients of u0. We show that suitable values for the segment size and for the regularizer, allow a stable reverse integration of 2D decaying turbulence, with accurate results for more then O(10) turbulent, integral time scales.

Keywords: time reversed integration, parabolic differential equations, adjoint gradient method, two dimensional turbulence

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Authors: Mailin Misson, Bo Jin, Sheng Dai, Hu Zhang

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Advances in biotechnology have witnessed a growing interest in enzyme applications for the development of green and sustainable bio processes. While known as powerful bio catalysts, enzymes are no longer of economic value when extended to large commercialization. Alternatively, immobilization technology allows enzyme recovery and continuous reuse which subsequently compensates high operating costs. Employment of enzymes on nano structured materials has been recognized as a promising approach to enhance enzyme catalytic performances. High porosity, inter connectivity and self-assembling behaviors endow nano fibers as exciting candidate for enzyme carrier in bio reactor systems. In this study, nano fibers were successfully fabricated via electro spinning system by optimizing the polymer concentration (10-30 %, w/v), applied voltage (10-30 kV) and discharge distance (11-26 cm). Microscopic images have confirmed the quality as homogeneous and good fiber alignment. The nano fibers surface was modified using strong oxidizing agent to facilitate bio molecule binding. Bovine serum albumin and β-galactosidase enzyme were employed as model bio catalysts and immobilized onto the oxidized surfaces through covalent binding. Maximum enzyme adsorption capacity of the modified nano fibers was 3000 mg/g, 3-fold higher than the unmodified counterpart (1000 mg/g). The highest immobilization yield was 80% and reached the saturation point at 2 mg/ml of enzyme concentration. The results indicate a significant increase of activity retention by the enzyme-bound modified nano fibers (80%) as compared to the nascent one (60%), signifying excellent enzyme-nano carrier bio compatibility. The immobilized enzyme was further used for the bio conversion of dairy wastes into value-added products. This study demonstrates great potential of acid-modified electrospun polystyrene nano fibers as enzyme carriers.

Keywords: immobilization, enzyme, nanocarrier, nanofibers

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Authors: Ebru Ergi̇n, Funda Kutlu

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Emerging adulthood is a developmental period and the formation of identity is crucial task of emerging adults in this period. In this frame, the main aim of the study was to compare college students and full-time workers on emerging adulthood dimensions and identity statuses in relation to some demographic variables in Turkey. The participants of the study were university students studying in Ankara and the employees working full-time in Ankara and Bursa. The mean age of the sample was 20.84 (sd=1.84), ranging from 18 to 25. The measurement instruments of the study were Inventory of Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood and Extended Objective Measure of Ego Identity Status (EOMEIS-II). The participants’ data (N=313) were analyzed to test the research questions and hypotheses of the study. A series of MANOVA were performed to test the group differences for some demographic characteristics (such as: employee/student, male/female, living with family/living apart from family) on scores of emerging adulthood dimensions and identity status. The results of the MANOVAs indicated that students, females and participants who live apart from their families had higher scores on emerging adulthood dimensions. The results of the identity status scores differences depending on the demographic characteristic pointed out that there were a significant group differences for identity foreclosure identity scores between employees and students. Employees’ foreclosure identity scores were higher than students. Furthermore, the identity scores were differed significantly according to gender of the participants. Male participants had higher scores in moratorium and foreclosure identity and female participants have higher achievement identity scores than males. Also, the participants who live with their family scored higher in foreclosure identity and the participants who live apart from their family scored higher in identity achievement status.

Keywords: college students, emerging adulthood, full-time employees, identity statuses

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Authors: Shazia Anwer

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The current TV Talk Shows, especially on domestic politics in Pakistan are following the Aristotelian techniques, including deductive reasoning, three modes of persuasion, and guidelines for communication. The application of “Approximate Truth is also seen when Talk Show presenters create doubts against political personalities or national issues. Mainstream media of Pakistan, being a key carrier of narrative construction for the sake of the primary function of national consensus on regional and extended public diplomacy, is failing the purpose. This paper has highlighted the Aristotelian communication methodology, its purposes and its limitations for a serious discussion, and its connection to the mistrust among the Pakistani population regarding fake or embedded, funded Information. Data has been collected from 3 Pakistani TV Talk Shows and their analysis has been made by applying the Aristotelian communication method to highlight the core issues. Paper has also elaborated that current media education is impaired in providing transparent techniques to train the future journalist for a meaningful, thought-provoking discussion. For this reason, this paper has given an overview of HEC’s (Higher Education Commission) graduate-level Mass Com Syllabus for Pakistani Universities. The idea of ethos, logos, and pathos are the main components of TV Talk Shows and as a result, the educated audience is lacking trust in the mainstream media, which eventually generating feelings of distrust and betrayal in the society because productions look like the genre of Drama instead of facts and analysis thus the line between Current Affairs shows and Infotainment has become blurred. In the last section, practical implication to improve meaningfulness and transparency in the TV Talk shows has been suggested by replacing the Aristotelian communication method with the cognitive semiotic communication approach.

Keywords: Aristotelian techniques of communication, current affairs talk shows, drama, Pakistan

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Authors: Tanira Kingi, Oscar Montes Oca, Reina Tamepo

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The introduction of the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act (2019) and the National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management (2020) both contain underpinning statements that refer to the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi and cultural concepts of stewardship and environmental protection. Maori interests in New Zealand’s agricultural, forestry, fishing and horticultural sectors are significant. The organizations that manage these investments do so on behalf of extended family groups that hold inherited interests based on genealogical connections (whakapapa) to particular tribal units (iwi and hapu) and areas of land (whenua) and freshwater bodies (wai). This paper draws on the findings of current research programmes funded by the New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre (NZAGRC) and the Our Land & Water National Science Challenge (OLW NSC) to understand the impact of cultural knowledge and imperatives on agricultural GHG and freshwater mitigation and land-use change decisions. In particular, the research outlines mitigation and land-use change scenario decision support frameworks that model changes in emissions profiles (reductions in biogenic methane, nitrous oxide and nutrient emissions to freshwater) of agricultural and forestry production systems along with impacts on key economic indicators and socio-cultural factors. The paper also assesses the effectiveness of newly introduced partnership arrangements between Maori groups/organizations and key government agencies on policy co-design and implementation, and in particular, decisions to adopt mitigation practices and to diversify land use.

Keywords: co-design and implementation of environmental policy, indigenous environmental knowledge, Māori land tenure and agribusiness, mitigation and land use change decision support frameworks

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Authors: Bander Alzahrani, Mohammed Alreshoodi

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Information-centric networking (ICN) using architectures such as the Publish-Subscribe Internet Technology (PURSUIT) has been proposed as a new networking model that aims at replacing the current used end-centric networking model of the Internet. This emerged model focuses on what is being exchanged rather than which network entities are exchanging information, which gives the control plane functions such as routing and host location the ability to be specified according to the content items. The forwarding plane of the PURSUIT ICN architecture uses a simple and light mechanism based on Bloom filter technologies to forward the packets. Although this forwarding scheme solve many problems of the today’s Internet such as the growth of the routing table and the scalability issues, it is vulnerable to brute force attacks which are starting point to distributed- denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. In this work, we design and analyze a novel source-routing and information delivery technique that keeps the simplicity of using Bloom filter-based forwarding while being able to deter different attacks such as denial of service attacks at the ingress of the network. To achieve this, special forwarding nodes called Edge-FW are directly attached to end user nodes and used to perform a security test for malicious injected random packets at the ingress of the path to prevent any possible attack brute force attacks at early stage. In this technique, a core entity of the PURSUIT ICN architecture called topology manager, that is responsible for finding shortest path and creating a forwarding identifiers (FId), uses a cryptographically secure hash function to create a 64-bit hash, h, over the formed FId for authentication purpose to be included in the packet. Our proposal restricts the attacker from injecting packets carrying random FIds with a high amount of filling factor ρ, by optimizing and reducing the maximum allowed filling factor ρm in the network. We optimize the FId to the minimum possible filling factor where ρ ≤ ρm, while it supports longer delivery trees, so the network scalability is not affected by the chosen ρm. With this scheme, the filling factor of any legitimate FId never exceeds the ρm while the filling factor of illegitimate FIds cannot exceed the chosen small value of ρm. Therefore, injecting a packet containing an FId with a large value of filling factor, to achieve higher attack probability, is not possible anymore. The preliminary analysis of this proposal indicates that with the designed scheme, the forwarding function can detect and prevent malicious activities such DDoS attacks at early stage and with very high probability.

Keywords: forwarding identifier, filling factor, information centric network, topology manager

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Authors: Pooja Jain

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Art education is often ignored in syllabus of developing countries like India and in educational planning for development but now days Indian Art with a global recognition is becoming an integral part of the education at all levels. The term art, widely used in all parts of the modern world, carried varied significance in India as its meaning was continuously being extended, covering the many varieties of creative expression such as painting, sculpture, commercial art, design, poetry, music, dance, and architecture. Over the last 100 years Indian artists of all forms have evolved a wide variety of expressive styles. With the recommendations and initiatives by Government of India, Art Education has subsequently gained pace at the school level as a mandatory subject for all making a path way for students with a creative bend of mind. This paper investigates curriculum in various schools of the country at secondary and senior secondary levels along with some eminent institutions running the program. Findings depicted the role of art education and justified its importance primarily with commercial art being perceived to be essential for students learning skills for economic gain in their career ahead. With so many art colleges spread across India, emerging artists and designers are being trained and are creating art of infinite variety and style and have opened up many career avenues. Commercial Art being a plethora of artistic expressions has confidently come of age wherein a creative perception is mixed with an introspective imagination to bring out multi faceted career options with a significant future enveloped in art. Visual arts in education thus is an expanding field of result assured research.

Keywords: modern art, commercial art, introspective imagination, career

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Authors: David A. Harness

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Natural evolution of ATP cognitive systems is to meet AI peer review standards. ATP process of axiom selection from Mizar to prove a conjecture would be further refined, as in all human and machine learning, by solving the real world problem of the proposed AI peer review challenge: Determine which conjecture forms the higher confidence level constructive proof between Standard Model of Physics SU(n) lattice gauge group operation vs. present non-standard 4D GEM EOS SU(n) lattice gauge group spatially extended operation in which the photon and electron are the first two trace angular momentum invariants of a gravitoelectromagnetic (GEM) energy momentum density tensor wavetrain integration spin-stress pressure-volume equation of state (EOS), initiated via 32 lines of Mathematica code. Resulting gravitoelectromagnetic spectrum ranges from compressive through rarefactive of the central cosmological constant vacuum energy density in units of pascals. Said self-adjoint group operation exclusively operates on the stress energy momentum tensor of the Einstein field equations, introducing quantization directly on the 4D spacetime level, essentially reformulating the Yang-Mills virtual superpositioned particle compounded lattice gauge groups quantization of the vacuum—into a single hyper-complex multi-valued GEM U(1) × SU(1,3) lattice gauge group Planck spacetime mesh quantization of the vacuum. Thus the Mizar corpus already contains all of the axioms required for relevant DeepMath premise selection and unambiguous formal natural language parsing in context deep learning.

Keywords: automated theorem proving, constructive quantum field theory, information theory, neural networks

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