Search results for: portfolio insurance
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 571

Search results for: portfolio insurance

571 Apricot Insurance Portfolio Risk

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

Abstract:

We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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570 Comparison Study of Capital Protection Risk Management Strategies: Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance versus Volatility Target Based Investment Strategy with a Guarantee

Authors: Olga Biedova, Victoria Steblovskaya, Kai Wallbaum

Abstract:

In the current capital market environment, investors constantly face the challenge of finding a successful and stable investment mechanism. Highly volatile equity markets and extremely low bond returns bring about the demand for sophisticated yet reliable risk management strategies. Investors are looking for risk management solutions to efficiently protect their investments. This study compares a classic Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategy to a Volatility Target portfolio insurance (VTPI). VTPI is an extension of the well-known Option Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) to the case where an embedded option is linked not to a pure risky asset such as e.g., S&P 500, but to a Volatility Target (VolTarget) portfolio. VolTarget strategy is a recently emerged rule-based dynamic asset allocation mechanism where the portfolio’s volatility is kept under control. As a result, a typical VTPI strategy allows higher participation rates in the market due to reduced embedded option prices. In addition, controlled volatility levels eliminate the volatility spread in option pricing, one of the frequently cited reasons for OBPI strategy fall behind CPPI. The strategies are compared within the framework of the stochastic dominance theory based on numerical simulations, rather than on the restrictive assumption of the Black-Scholes type dynamics of the underlying asset. An extended comparative quantitative analysis of performances of the above investment strategies in various market scenarios and within a range of input parameter values is presented.

Keywords: CPPI, portfolio insurance, stochastic dominance, volatility target

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
569 A Mean–Variance–Skewness Portfolio Optimization Model

Authors: Kostas Metaxiotis

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization is one of the most important topics in finance. This paper proposes a mean–variance–skewness (MVS) portfolio optimization model. Traditionally, the portfolio optimization problem is solved by using the mean–variance (MV) framework. In this study, we formulate the proposed model as a three-objective optimization problem, where the portfolio's expected return and skewness are maximized whereas the portfolio risk is minimized. For solving the proposed three-objective portfolio optimization model we apply an adapted version of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII). Finally, we use a real dataset from FTSE-100 for validating the proposed model.

Keywords: evolutionary algorithms, portfolio optimization, skewness, stock selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
568 The Empirical Analysis and Comparisons Using TAIEX Derivatives

Authors: Pao-Peng Hsu, Ying-Hsiu Chen

Abstract:

Historical data shows that there were high correlations among TAIEX Futures, Electronic Sector Index Futures, Finance Sector Index Futures and Taiwan Top 50 ETF. The performance under various futures is also discussed. We found that the worst portfolio is consisted of T50-ETF and T50-ETF futures and best portfolio is consisted of T50-ETF and TF. It implies that the annual return of a portfolio increases if a portfolio’s risk diversifies.

Keywords: arbitrage opportunities, ETF, futures, TAIEX

Procedia PDF Downloads 348
567 The Impact of Transaction Costs on Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in Portfolio Optimization

Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

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Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Markowitz model, fractional quadratic programming, portfolio optimization, transaction costs

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566 Mathematical Programming Models for Portfolio Optimization Problem: A Review

Authors: Mazura Mokhtar, Adibah Shuib, Daud Mohamad

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization problem has received a lot of attention from both researchers and practitioners over the last six decades. This paper provides an overview of the current state of research in portfolio optimization with the support of mathematical programming techniques. On top of that, this paper also surveys the solution algorithms for solving portfolio optimization models classifying them according to their nature in heuristic and exact methods. To serve these purposes, 40 related articles appearing in the international journal from 2003 to 2013 have been gathered and analyzed. Based on the literature review, it has been observed that stochastic programming and goal programming constitute the highest number of mathematical programming techniques employed to tackle the portfolio optimization problem. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers and practitioners for easy references of portfolio optimization.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, mathematical programming, multi-objective programming, solution approaches

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565 Analyzing Essential Patents of Mobile Communication Based on Patent Portfolio: Case Study of Long Term Evolution-Advanced

Authors: Kujhin Jeong, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

In the past, cross-licensing was made up of various application or commercial patents. Today, cross-licensing is restricted to essential patents, which has emphasized their importance significantly. Literature has shown that patent portfolio provides information for patent protection or strategy decision-making, but little empirical research has found strategic tool of essential patents. This paper will highlight four types of essential patent portfolio and analysis about each strategy in the field of LTE-A. Specifically we collected essential patents of mobile communication company through ETSI (European Telecommunication Standards Institute) and build-up portfolio activity, concentration, diversity, and quality. Using these portfolios, we can understand each company’s strategic character about the technology of LTE-A and comparison analysis of financial results. Essential patents portfolio displays a mobile communication company’s strategy and its strategy’s impact on the performance of a company.

Keywords: essential patent, portfolio, patent portfolio, essential patent portfolio

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
564 Optimal Portfolio Selection under Treynor Ratio Using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Imad Zeyad Ramadan

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In this paper a genetic algorithm was developed to construct the optimal portfolio based on the Treynor method. The GA maximizes the Treynor ratio under budget constraint to select the best allocation of the budget for the companies in the portfolio. The results show that the GA was able to construct a conservative portfolio which includes companies from the three sectors. This indicates that the GA reduced the risk on the investor as it choose some companies with positive risks (goes with the market) and some with negative risks (goes against the market).

Keywords: oOptimization, genetic algorithm, portfolio selection, Treynor method

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563 Advanced Technologies and Algorithms for Efficient Portfolio Selection

Authors: Konstantinos Liagkouras, Konstantinos Metaxiotis

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In this paper we present a classification of the various technologies applied for the solution of the portfolio selection problem according to the discipline and the methodological framework followed. We provide a concise presentation of the emerged categories and we are trying to identify which methods considered obsolete and which lie at the heart of the debate. On top of that, we provide a comparative study of the different technologies applied for efficient portfolio construction and we suggest potential paths for future work that lie at the intersection of the presented techniques.

Keywords: portfolio selection, optimization techniques, financial models, stochastic, heuristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 399
562 Insurance of Agricultural Activities as the Basis for Food Security

Authors: J. B. Akshataeva, G. T. Aigarinova, A. Amankulova, D. S. Kalkanova

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This article examines some aspects of the insurance of agricultural activities, strategic documents on deepening investment opportunities. Insurance market development is before the society and the state. It also examines problems of agricultural insurance development in the market economy of Kazakhstan as the basis for food security.

Keywords: agriculture, food safety, insurance, privacy issues

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561 The Effect of Catastrophic Losses on Insurance Cycle: Case of Croatia

Authors: Drago Jakovčević, Maja Mihelja Žaja

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This paper provides an analysis of the insurance cycle in the Republic of Croatia and whether they are affected by catastrophic losses on a global level. In general, it is considered that insurance cycles are particularly pronounced in periods of financial crisis, but are also affected by the growing number of catastrophic losses. They cause the change of insurance cycle and premium growth and intensification and narrowing of the coverage conditions, so these variables move in the same direction and these phenomena point to a new cycle. The main goal of this paper is to determine the existence of insurance cycle in the Republic of Croatia and investigate whether catastrophic losses have an influence on insurance cycles.

Keywords: catastrophic loss, insurance cycle, premium, Republic of Croatia

Procedia PDF Downloads 324
560 Evaluation of Demand of Fire Insurance in Iran and Embrace Digitalization to Improve It

Authors: Mahsa Ghorbani Jazin

Abstract:

The insurance industry has a prominent place in the economy of every country in the world. Fire insurance policies are types of non-life insurance, which protect insureds against financial losses of fire and related risks. In this paper, factors that are affecting the demand for fire insurance in Iran have been examined. Due to this reason, information and data have been collected during the period 1989-2019. In this research, the final model was estimated. The obtained results represent that as the population and literacy rate increase, people are more willing to purchase fire insurance. On the other hand, the actual per capita income has a negative influence on the demand for this type of insurance. Also, the amount of compensation that is paid in losses can be assumed as an indirect advertisement for fire insurance and attracts people to buy this policy. Finally, the new technology in the insurance industry is examined as a new underestimated way for increasing demand, especially in Iran.

Keywords: fire insurance, demand, per capita income, literacy rate, population, compensation paid, Insurtech

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
559 Prioritization in Modern Portfolio Management - An Action Design Research Approach to Method Development for Scaled Agility

Authors: Jan-Philipp Schiele, Karsten Schlinkmeier

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Allocation of scarce resources is a core process of traditional project portfolio management. However, with the popularity of agile methodology, established concepts and methods of portfolio management are reaching their limits and need to be adapted. Consequently, the question arises of how the process of resource allocation can be managed appropriately in scaled agile environments. The prevailing framework SAFe offers Weightest Shortest Job First (WSJF) as a prioritization technique, butestablished companies are still looking for methodical adaptions to apply WSJF for prioritization in portfolios in a more goal-oriented way and aligned for their needs in practice. In this paper, the relevant problem of prioritization in portfolios is conceptualized from the perspective of coordination and related mechanisms to support resource allocation. Further, an Action Design Research (ADR) project with case studies in a finance company is outlined to develop a practically applicable yet scientifically sound prioritization method based on coordination theory. The ADR project will be flanked by consortium research with various practitioners from the financial and insurance industry. Preliminary design requirements indicate that the use of a feedback loop leads to better team and executive level coordination in the prioritization process.

Keywords: scaled agility, portfolio management, prioritization, business-IT alignment

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558 Sustainability of Healthcare Insurance in India: A Review of Health Insurance Scheme Launched by States in India

Authors: Mohd Zuhair, Ram Babu Roy

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This paper presents an overview of the accessibility, design, and functioning of health insurance plans launched by state governments in India. In recent years, the governments of several states in India have come forward to provide health insurance coverage for the low-income group and rural population to reduce the out of pocket expenditure (OPE) on healthcare. Different health insurance schemes have different structures and offerings which differ in the different demographic factors. This study will portray a comparative analysis of the various health insurance schemes by analyzing different offerings and finance generation of the schemes. The comparative analysis will explain the lesson to be learned from these schemes and extend the existing knowledge of the health insurance in India. This would help in recognizing tension between various drivers and identifying issues pertaining to the sustainability of health insurance schemes in India.

Keywords: health insurance, out of pocket expenditure, universal healthcare, sustainability

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557 Portfolio Selection with Active Risk Monitoring

Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 489
556 Mathematical Model of Corporate Bond Portfolio and Effective Border Preview

Authors: Sergey Podluzhnyy

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One of the most important tasks of investment and pension fund management is building decision support system which helps to make right decision on corporate bond portfolio formation. Today there are several basic methods of bond portfolio management. They are duration management, immunization and convexity management. Identified methods have serious disadvantage: they do not take into account credit risk or insolvency risk of issuer. So, identified methods can be applied only for management and evaluation of high-quality sovereign bonds. Applying article proposes mathematical model for building an optimal in case of risk and yield corporate bond portfolio. Proposed model takes into account the default probability in formula of assessment of bonds which results to more correct evaluation of bonds prices. Moreover, applied model provides tools for visualization of the efficient frontier of corporate bonds portfolio taking into account the exposure to credit risk, which will increase the quality of the investment decisions of portfolio managers.

Keywords: corporate bond portfolio, default probability, effective boundary, portfolio optimization task

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
555 Historical Metaphors in Insurance: A Journey

Authors: Anjuman Antil, Anuj Kapoor, Neha Saini

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of insurance in India and the world. The paper also traced the historical basis of life insurance in the world and how it emerged as a major sector in India’s economy. The promotional strategies and distribution channel of top three companies in the Indian insurance sector are also discussed. Design/methodology/approach: The paper examined the secondary data which includes the reports issued by Insurance Regulatory Authority of India, websites of companies, books, and journals relevant to the study. Findings: The paper argued the role and importance of insurance in an emerging economy. The challenges and opportunities of the insurance sector are briefed out. The emerging areas in the insurance sector in terms of promotional strategies and distribution channel are also listed. Implications: The historical evolution can be studied by companies while formulating their strategies. It will help them analyse the insurance sector, how things have changed and how to change with the changing times. Originality/value: This paper gives comprehensive data regarding the background of the insurance sector. Along with historical perspective, marketing and distribution, current and future trends have been discussed.

Keywords: insurance, evolution, life insurance, marketing, distribution channels

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554 Smart Beta Portfolio Optimization

Authors: Saud Al Mahdi

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Traditionally,portfolio managers have been discouraged from timing the market. This means, for example, that equity managers have been forced to adhere strictly to a benchmark with static or relatively stable components, such as the SP 500 or the Russell 3000. This means that the portfolio’s exposures to all risk factors should mimic as closely as possible the corresponding exposures of the benchmark. The main risk factor, of course, is the market itself. Effectively, a long-only portfolio would be constrained to have a beta 1. More recently, however, managers have been given greater discretion to adjust their portfolio’s risk exposures (in particular, the beta of their portfolio) dynamically to match the manager’s beliefs about future performance of the risk factors themselves. This freedom translates into the manager’s ability to adjust the portfolio’s beta dynamically. These strategies have come to be known as smart beta strategies. Adjusting beta dynamically amounts to attempting to "time" the market; that is, to increase exposure when one anticipates that the market will rise, and to decrease it when one anticipates that the market will fall. Traditionally, market timing has been believed to be impossible to perform effectively and consistently. Moreover, if a majority of market participants do it, their combined actions could destabilize the market. The aim of this project is to investigate so-called smart beta strategies to determine if they really can add value, or if they are merely marketing gimmicks used to sell dubious investment strategies.

Keywords: beta, alpha, active portfolio management, trading strategies

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553 A Comparative Analysis of Global Minimum Variance and Naïve Portfolios: Performance across Stock Market Indices and Selected Economic Regimes Using Various Risk-Return Metrics

Authors: Lynmar M. Didal, Ramises G. Manzano Jr., Jacque Bon-Isaac C. Aboy

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This study analyzes the performance of global minimum variance and naive portfolios across different economic periods, using monthly stock returns from the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI), S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW). The performance is evaluated through the Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Jensen’s Alpha, Treynor ratio, and Information ratio. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of short selling on portfolio performance. Six-time periods are defined for analysis, encompassing events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings indicate that the Naive portfolio generally outperforms the GMV portfolio in the S&P 500, signifying higher returns with increased volatility. Conversely, in the PSEI and DOW, the GMV portfolio shows more efficient risk-adjusted returns. Short selling significantly impacts the GMV portfolio during mid-GFC and mid-COVID periods. The study offers insights for investors, suggesting the Naive portfolio for higher risk tolerance and the GMV portfolio as a conservative alternative.

Keywords: portfolio performance, global minimum variance, naïve portfolio, risk-adjusted metrics, short-selling

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552 Financial Reports and Common Ownership: An Analysis of the Mechanisms Common Owners Use to Induce Anti-Competitive Behavior

Authors: Kevin Smith

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Publicly traded company in the US are legally obligated to host earnings calls that discuss their most recent financial reports. During these calls, investors are able to ask these companies questions about these financial reports and on the future direction of the company. This paper examines whether common institutional owners use these calls as a way to indirectly signal to companies in their portfolio to not take actions that could hurt the common owner's interests. This paper uses transcripts taken from the earnings calls of the six largest health insurance companies in the US from 2014 to 2019. This data is analyzed using text analysis and sentiment analysis to look for patterns in the statements made by common owners. The analysis found that common owners where more likely to recommend against direct price competition and instead redirect the insurance companies towards more passive actions, like investing in new technologies. This result indicates a mechanism that common owners use to reduce competition in the health insurance market.

Keywords: common ownership, text analysis, sentiment analysis, machine learning

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551 Market Solvency Capital Requirement Minimization: How Non-linear Solvers Provide Portfolios Complying with Solvency II Regulation

Authors: Abraham Castellanos, Christophe Durville, Sophie Echenim

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In this article, a portfolio optimization problem is performed in a Solvency II context: it illustrates how advanced optimization techniques can help to tackle complex operational pain points around the monitoring, control, and stability of Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The market SCR of a portfolio is calculated as a combination of SCR sub-modules. These sub-modules are the results of stress-tests on interest rate, equity, property, credit and FX factors, as well as concentration on counter-parties. The market SCR is non convex and non differentiable, which does not make it a natural optimization criteria candidate. In the SCR formulation, correlations between sub-modules are fixed, whereas risk-driven portfolio allocation is usually driven by the dynamics of the actual correlations. Implementing a portfolio construction approach that is efficient on both a regulatory and economic standpoint is not straightforward. Moreover, the challenge for insurance portfolio managers is not only to achieve a minimal SCR to reduce non-invested capital but also to ensure stability of the SCR. Some optimizations have already been performed in the literature, simplifying the standard formula into a quadratic function. But to our knowledge, it is the first time that the standard formula of the market SCR is used in an optimization problem. Two solvers are combined: a bundle algorithm for convex non- differentiable problems, and a BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb- Shanno)-SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming) algorithm, to cope with non-convex cases. A market SCR minimization is then performed with historical data. This approach results in significant reduction of the capital requirement, compared to a classical Markowitz approach based on the historical volatility. A comparative analysis of different optimization models (equi-risk-contribution portfolio, minimizing volatility portfolio and minimizing value-at-risk portfolio) is performed and the impact of these strategies on risk measures including market SCR and its sub-modules is evaluated. A lack of diversification of market SCR is observed, specially for equities. This was expected since the market SCR strongly penalizes this type of financial instrument. It was shown that this direct effect of the regulation can be attenuated by implementing constraints in the optimization process or minimizing the market SCR together with the historical volatility, proving the interest of having a portfolio construction approach that can incorporate such features. The present results are further explained by the Market SCR modelling.

Keywords: financial risk, numerical optimization, portfolio management, solvency capital requirement

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550 Using Analytic Hierarchy Process as a Decision-Making Tool in Project Portfolio Management

Authors: Darius Danesh, Michael J. Ryan, Alireza Abbasi

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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible option to improve the decision-making outcomes in the organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision making, project portfolio management

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549 Interaction between Mutual Fund Performance and Portfolio Turnover

Authors: Sheng-Ching Wu

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This paper examines the interaction between mutual fund performance and portfolio turnover. Active trading could affect fund performance, but underperforming funds could also be traded actively at the same time to perform well. Therefore, we used two-stage least squares to address with simultaneity. The results indicate that funds with higher portfolio turnovers exhibit inferior performance compared with funds having lower turnovers. Moreover, funds with poor performance exhibit higher portfolio turnover. The findings support the assumptions that active trading erodes performance, and that fund managers with poor performance attempt to trade actively to retain employment.

Keywords: mutual funds, portfolio turnover, simultaneity, two-stage least squares

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548 Multivariate Dependent Frequency-Severity Modeling of Insurance Claims: A Vine Copula Approach

Authors: Islem Kedidi, Rihab Bedoui Bensalem, Faysal Manssouri

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In traditional models of insurance data, the number and size of claims are assumed to be independent. Relaxing the independence assumption, this article explores the Vine copula to model dependence structure between multivariate frequency and average severity of insurance claim. To illustrate this approach, we use the Wisconsin local government property insurance fund which offers several insurance protections for motor vehicles, property and contractor’s equipment claims. Results show that the C-vine copula can better characterize the multivariate dependence structure between frequency and severity. Furthermore, we find significant dependencies especially between frequency and average severity among different coverage types.

Keywords: dependency modeling, government insurance, insurance claims, vine copula

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547 Assessment of Korea's Natural Gas Portfolio Considering Panama Canal Expansion

Authors: Juhan Kim, Jinsoo Kim

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South Korea cannot import natural gas in any form other than LNG because of the division of South and North Korea. Further, the high proportion of natural gas in the national energy mix makes this resource crucial for energy security in Korea. Expansion of Panama Canal will allow for reducing the cost of shipping between the Far East and U.S East. Panama Canal expansion can have significant impacts on South Korea. Due to this situation, we review the natural gas optimal portfolio by considering the uniqueness of the Korean Natural gas market and expansion of Panama Canal. In order to assess Korea’s natural gas optimal portfolio, we developed natural gas portfolio model. The model comprises two steps. First, to obtain the optimal long-term spot contract ratio, the study examines the price level and the correlation between spot and long-term contracts by using the Markowitz, portfolio model. The optimal long-term spot contract ratio follows the efficient frontier of the cost/risk level related to this price level and degree of correlation. Second, by applying the obtained long-term contract purchase ratio as the constraint in the linear programming portfolio model, we determined the natural gas optimal import portfolio that minimizes total intangible and tangible costs. Using this model, we derived the optimal natural gas portfolio considering the expansion of Panama Canal. Based on these results, we assess the portfolio for natural gas import to Korea from the perspective of energy security and present some relevant policy proposals.

Keywords: natural gas, Panama Canal, portfolio analysis, South Korea

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546 Dynamic Correlations and Portfolio Optimization between Islamic and Conventional Equity Indexes: A Vine Copula-Based Approach

Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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545 Organizational Mortality of Insurance Organizations under the Conditions of Environmental Changes

Authors: Erdem Kirkbesoglu, A. Bugra Soylu, E. Deniz Kahraman

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The aim of this study is to examine the effects of some variables on organizational mortality of the Turkish insurance industry and calculate the carrying capacities of Turkish insurance industry according to cities and regions. In the study, organizational mortality was tested with the level of reaching the population's carrying capacity. The findings of this study show that the insurance sales potentials can be calculated according to the provinces and regions of Turkey. It has also been proven that the organizations that feed on the same source will have a carrying capacity in the evolutionary process.

Keywords: insurance, carrying capacity, organizational mortality, organization

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544 A Comparative Study of Insurance Policies Worldwide in Public Private Partnerships

Authors: Guanqun Shi, Xueqing Zhang

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The frequent occurrence of failures in PPP projects which caused great loss has raised attention from the government as well as the concessionaire. PPPs are complex arrangements for its long operation period and multiple players. Many types of risks in PPP projects may cause the project fail. The insurance is an important tool to transfer the risks. Through a comparison and analysis of international government PPP guidelines and contracts as well as the case studies worldwide, we have identified eight main insurance principles, discussed thirteen insurance types in different stages. An overall procedure would be established to improve the practices in PPP projects.

Keywords: public private partnerships, insurance, contract, risk

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543 Impact of Brexit on the Structure of the European Insurance Market: A Solvency and Financial Condition Report Content Analysis of UK Insurance Companies

Authors: Antonia Müller, Svend Reuse

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The Brexit referendum in June 2016 led to different publications analysing potential consequences for European and British insurance companies under the European Passport. This study addresses a research gap, regarding the measures taken by insurance companies based in the United Kingdom and thus on structural changes to the European insurance market by an innovative structured Solvency and Financial Condition Report content analysis. In scope are all insurance companies based in the United Kingdom, that fall under the Solvency II supervisory regime. The results show that the majority of British Solvency II insurance companies in scope, conducting cross-border business to the European Union, have applied and reported measures to be able to continue operating this cross-border business after Brexit. In addition, the study shows that 34 new insurance companies based in the European Union were established as a result of Brexit, indicating structural changes to the European insurance market.

Keywords: brexit, europe, insurance market, solvency and financial condition repot, structural changes

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542 An Approach to Practical Determination of Fair Premium Rates in Crop Hail Insurance Using Short-Term Insurance Data

Authors: Necati Içer

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Crop-hail insurance plays a vital role in managing risks and reducing the financial consequences of hail damage on crop production. Predicting insurance premium rates with short-term data is a major difficulty in numerous nations because of the unique characteristics of hailstorms. This study aims to suggest a feasible approach for establishing equitable premium rates in crop-hail insurance for nations with short-term insurance data. The primary goal of the rate-making process is to determine premium rates for high and zero loss costs of villages and enhance their credibility. To do this, a technique was created using the author's practical knowledge of crop-hail insurance. With this approach, the rate-making method was developed using a range of temporal and spatial factor combinations with both hypothetical and real data, including extreme cases. This article aims to show how to incorporate the temporal and spatial elements into determining fair premium rates using short-term insurance data. The article ends with a suggestion on the ultimate premium rates for insurance contracts.

Keywords: crop-hail insurance, premium rate, short-term insurance data, spatial and temporal parameters

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