Search results for: apparent error rate

Authors: Ch. Sridevi, A. Chalapathi Rao, P. Srinivasulu

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The location accuracy of data products is a critical parameter in assessing the geometric performance of satellite sensors. This study focuses on reliability analysis of onboard sensors to evaluate their performance in terms of location accuracy performance over time. The analysis utilizes field failure data and employs the weibull distribution to determine the reliability and in turn to understand the improvements or degradations over a period of time. The analysis begins by scrutinizing the location accuracy error which is the root mean square (RMS) error of differences between ground control point coordinates observed on the product and the map and identifying the failure data with reference to time. A significant challenge in this study is to thoroughly analyze the possibility of an infant mortality phase in the data. To address this, the Weibull distribution is utilized to determine if the data exhibits an infant stage or if it has transitioned into the operational phase. The shape parameter beta plays a crucial role in identifying this stage. Additionally, determining the exact start of the operational phase and the end of the infant stage poses another challenge as it is crucial to eliminate residual infant mortality or wear-out from the model, as it can significantly increase the total failure rate. To address this, an approach utilizing the well-established statistical Laplace test is applied to infer the behavior of sensors and to accurately ascertain the duration of different phases in the lifetime and the time required for stabilization. This approach also helps in understanding if the bathtub curve model, which accounts for the different phases in the lifetime of a product, is appropriate for the data and whether the thresholds for the infant period and wear-out phase are accurately estimated by validating the data in individual phases with Weibull distribution curve fitting analysis. Once the operational phase is determined, reliability is assessed using Weibull analysis. This analysis not only provides insights into the reliability of individual sensors with regards to location accuracy over the required period of time, but also establishes a model that can be applied to automate similar analyses for various sensors and parameters using field failure data. Furthermore, the identification of the best-performing sensor through this analysis serves as a benchmark for future missions and designs, ensuring continuous improvement in sensor performance and reliability. Overall, this study provides a methodology to accurately determine the duration of different phases in the life data of individual sensors. It enables an assessment of the time required for stabilization and provides insights into the reliability during the operational phase and the commencement of the wear-out phase. By employing this methodology, designers can make informed decisions regarding sensor performance with regards to location accuracy, contributing to enhanced accuracy in satellite-based applications.

Keywords: bathtub curve, geometric performance, Laplace test, location accuracy, reliability analysis, Weibull analysis

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Authors: Remy Jonkam Oben

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Using a time series approach, this study investigates how natural resources impact financial development from a global perspective over the 1980-2019 period. Some important determinants of financial development (economic growth, trade openness, population growth, and investment) have been added to the model as control variables. Unit root tests have revealed that all the variables are integrated into order one. Johansen's cointegration test has shown that the variables are in a long-run equilibrium relationship. The vector error correction model (VECM) has estimated the coefficient of the error correction term (ECT), which suggests that the short-run values of natural resources, economic growth, trade openness, population growth, and investment contribute to financial development converging to its long-run equilibrium level by a 23.63% annual speed of adjustment. The estimated coefficients suggest that global natural resource rent has a statistically-significant negative impact on global financial development in the long-run (thereby validating the financial resource curse) but not in the short-run. Causality test results imply that neither global natural resource rent nor global financial development Granger-causes each other.

Keywords: financial development, natural resources, resource curse hypothesis, time series analysis, Granger causality, global perspective

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Eleonora Sofilda, Ria Amalia, Muhammad Zilal Hamzah

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Foreign direct investment is one of the sources of financing or capital that important for a country, especially for developing countries. This investment also provides a great contribution to development through the transfer of assets, management improving, and transfer of technology in enhancing the economy of a country. In the other side currently in ASEAN countries emerge the interesting phenomenon where some big producers are re-locate their basic production among those countries. This research is aimed to analyze the factors that affect capital inflows of foreign direct investment into the 6 ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam) in period 2004-2012. This study uses panel data analysis to determine the factors that affect of foreign direct investment in 6 ASEAN. The factors that affect of foreign direct investment (FDI) are the gross domestic product (GDP), global competitiveness (GCI), interest rate, exchange rate and trade openness (TO). Result of panel data analysis show that three independent variables (GCI, GDP, and TO) have a significant effect to the FDI in 6 ASEAN Countries.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, the gross domestic product, global competitiveness, interest rate, exchange rate, trade openness, panel data analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: Khamdan Cahyari, Gumbolo Hadi Susanto, Pratikno Hidayat, Sukirman

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University canteen waste was used as raw material to produce biogas in Faculty of Industrial Technology, Islamic University of Indonesia. This faculty was home to more than 3000 students and lecturers who work and study for 5 days/week (8 hours/day). It produced approximately 85 ton/year organic fraction of canteen waste. Yet, this waste had been dumped for years in landfill area which cause severe environmental problems. It was proposed to utilize the waste as raw material for producing renewable energy source of biogas. This research activities was meant to investigate the effect of organic loading rate (OLR) and retention time (RT) of continuous anaerobic digestion process for 200 days. Organic loading rate was set at value 2, 3, 4 and 5 g VS/l/d whereas the retention time was adjusted at 30, 24, 18 and 14.4 days. Optimum condition was achieved at OLR 4 g VS/l/d and RT 24 days with biogas production rate between 0.75 to 1.25 liter/day (40-60% CH4). This indicated that the utilization of canteen waste to produce biogas was promising method to mitigate environmental problem of university canteen waste. Furthermore, biogas could be used as alternative energy source to supply energy demand at the university. This implementation is simultaneous solution for both waste and energy problems to achieve green campus.

Keywords: canteen waste, biogas, anaerobic digestion, university, green campus

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Authors: A. Vinay, Mary Josephine, Shreesha. S. Rao, Dhande Kranthi Kumar, J. Nandini

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This paper looks at the development of Fisheries education in Karnataka and the supply of skilled human capital to the sector. The study tries to analyse their job occupancy patterns, Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and forecasts the fisheries graduates supply using the Holt method. In Karnataka, fisheries are one of the neglected allied sectors of agriculture in spite of having enormous scope and potential to contribute to the State's agriculture GDP. The State Government has been negligent in absorbing skilled human capital for the development of fisheries, as there are so many vacant positions in both education institutes, as well as the State fisheries department. CGR and forecasting of fisheries graduates shows a positive growth rate and increasing trend, from which we can understand that by proper utilization of skilled human capital can bring development in the fisheries sector of Karnataka.

Keywords: compound growth rate, fisheries education, holt method, skilled human capital

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Authors: G. Kloudova, S. Kozlova, M. Stehlik

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Pilots are operating in a high-risk environment rich in potential stressors, which negatively affect aviation safety and the mental health of pilots. In the research conducted, the pilots were offered mental training biofeedback therapy. Biofeedback is an objective tool to measure physiological responses to stress. After only six sessions, all of the pilots tested showed significant differences between their initial condition and their condition after therapy. The biggest improvement was found in decreased heart rate (in 83.3% of tested pilots) and respiration rate (66.7%), which are the best indicators of anxiety states and panic attacks. To incorporate all of the variables, we correlated the measured physiological state of the pilots with their personality traits. Surprisingly, we found a high correlation with peripheral temperature and confidence (0.98) and with heart rate and aggressiveness (0.97). A retest made after a one-year interval showed that in majority of the subjects tested their acquired self-regulation ability had been internalized.

Keywords: aviation, biofeedback, mental workload, performance psychology

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Ergin Kosa, Ali Göksenli

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Erosion and abrasion are wear mechanisms reducing the lifetime of machine elements like valves, pump and pipe systems. Both wear mechanisms are acting at the same time, causing a “Synergy” effect, which leads to a rapid damage of the surface. Different parameters are effective on erosive abrasive wear rate. In this study effect of particle impact angle on wear rate and wear mechanism of ductile and brittle materials was investigated. A new slurry pot was designed for experimental investigation. As abrasive particle, silica sand was used. Particle size was ranking between 200-500 µm. All tests were carried out in a sand-water mixture of 20% concentration for four hours. Impact velocities of the particles were 4,76 m/s. As ductile material steel St 37 with Brinell Hardness Number (BHN) of 245 and quenched St 37 with 510 BHN was used as brittle material. After wear tests, morphology of the eroded surfaces were investigated for better understanding of the wear mechanisms acting at different impact angles by using optical microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscope. The results indicated that wear rate of ductile material was higher than brittle material. Maximum wear was observed by ductile material at a particle impact angle of 300. On the contrary wear rate increased by brittle materials by an increase in impact angle and reached maximum value at 450. High amount of craters were detected after observation on ductile material surface Also plastic deformation zones were detected, which are typical failure modes for ductile materials. Craters formed by particles were deeper according to brittle material worn surface. Amount of craters decreased on brittle material surface. Microcracks around craters were detected which are typical failure modes of brittle materials. Deformation wear was the dominant wear mechanism on brittle material. At the end it is concluded that wear rate could not be directly related to impact angle of the hard particle due to the different responses of ductile and brittle materials.

Keywords: erosive wear, particle impact angle, silica sand, wear rate, ductile-brittle material

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Authors: Harish K. Arya, Kulwant Singh, R. K. Saxena

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The heat flow in weldment changes its nature from 2D to 3D with the increase in plate thickness. For welding of thicker plates the heat loss in thickness direction increases the cooling rate of plate. Since the cooling rate changes, the various bead parameters like bead penetration, bead height and bead width also got affected by it. The present study incorporates the effect of variable plate thickness on penetration and bead width. The penetration reduces with increase in plate thickness due to heat loss in thickness direction for same heat input, while bead width increases for thicker plate due to faster cooling.

Keywords: submerged arc welding, plate thickness, bead geometry, cooling rate

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Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang

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Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.

Keywords: computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Abdelkarim M. Ertiame, D. W. Yu, D. L. Yu, J. B. Gomm

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In this paper, a new robust fault detection and isolation (FDI) scheme is developed to monitor a multivariable nonlinear chemical process called the Chylla-Haase polymerization reactor when it is under the cascade PI control. The scheme employs a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) in an independent mode to model the process dynamics and using the weighted sum-squared prediction error as the residual. The recursive orthogonal Least Squares algorithm (ROLS) is employed to train the model to overcome the training difficulty of the independent mode of the network. Then, another RBFNN is used as a fault classifier to isolate faults from different features involved in the residual vector. The several actuator and sensor faults are simulated in a nonlinear simulation of the reactor in Simulink. The scheme is used to detect and isolate the faults on-line. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the scheme even the process is subjected to disturbances and uncertainties including significant changes in the monomer feed rate, fouling factor, impurity factor, ambient temperature and measurement noise. The simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Robust fault detection, cascade control, independent RBF model, RBF neural networks, Chylla-Haase reactor, FDI under closed-loop control

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Authors: Noxolo Mafu

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This study presents an overview of strategic planning in South African higher education institutions by tracing its trends and mystique in order to identify its impact. Over the democratic decades, strategic planning has become integral to institutional survival. It has been used as a potent tool by several institutions to catch up and surpass counterparts. While planning has always been part of higher education, strategic planning should be considered different. Strategic planning is primarily about development and maintenance of a strategic fitting between an institution and its dynamic opportunities. This presupposes existence of sets of stages that institutions pursue of which, can be regarded for assessment of the impact of strategic planning in an institution. The network theory serves guides the study in demystifying apparent organisational networks in strategic planning processes.

Keywords: network theory, strategy, planning, strategic planning, assessment, impact

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: G. St-Pierre-Lemieux, E. Askari Mahvelati, D. Groleau, P. Proulx

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Mathematical modeling has become an important tool for the study of foam behavior. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) can be used to investigate the behavior of foam around foam breakers to better understand the mechanisms leading to the ‘destruction’ of foam. The focus of this investigation was the simple cone foam breaker, whose performance has been identified in numerous studies. While the optimal pumping angle is known from the literature, the contribution of pressure drop, shearing, and centrifugal forces to the foam syneresis are subject to speculation. This work provides a screening of those factors against changes in the cone angle and foam rheology. The CFD simulation was made with the open source OpenFOAM toolkits on a full three-dimensional model discretized using hexahedral cells. The geometry was generated using a python script then meshed with blockMesh. The OpenFOAM Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method was used (interFOAM) to obtain a detailed description of the interfacial forces, and the model k-omega SST was used to calculate the turbulence fields. The cone configuration allows the use of a rotating wall boundary condition. In each case, a pair of immiscible fluids, foam/air or water/air was used. The foam was modeled as a shear thinning (Herschel-Buckley) fluid. The results were compared to our measurements and to results found in the literature, first by computing the pumping rate of the cone, and second by the liquid break-up at the exit of the cone. A 3D printed version of the cones submerged in foam (shaving cream or soap solution) and water, at speeds varying between 400 RPM and 1500 RPM, was also used to validate the modeling results by calculating the torque exerted on the shaft. While most of the literature is focusing on cone behavior using Newtonian fluids, this works explore its behavior in shear thinning fluid which better reflects foam apparent rheology. Those simulations bring new light on the cone behavior within the foam and allow the computation of shearing, pressure, and velocity of the fluid, enabling to better evaluate the efficiency of the cones as foam breakers. This study contributes to clarify the mechanisms behind foam breaker performances, at least in part, using modern CFD techniques.

Keywords: bioreactor, CFD, foam breaker, foam mitigation, OpenFOAM

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Authors: Calister Wingang Makebe, Wilson Ambindei Agwanande, Emmanuel Jong Nso, P. Nisha

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Traditional liquid-state fermentation processes of Annona muricata L. juice can result in fluctuating product quality and quantity due to difficulties in control and scale up. This work describes a laboratory-scale batch fermentation process to produce a probiotic Annona muricata L. enzymatically extracted juice, which was modeled using the Doehlert design with independent extraction factors being incubation time, temperature, and enzyme concentration. It aimed at a better understanding of the traditional process as an initial step for future optimization. Annona muricata L. juice was fermented with L. acidophilus (NCDC 291) (LA), L. casei (NCDC 17) (LC), and a blend of LA and LC (LCA) for 72 h at 37 °C. Experimental data were fitted into mathematical models (Monod, Logistic and Luedeking and Piret models) using MATLAB software, to describe biomass growth, sugar utilization, and organic acid production. The optimal fermentation time was obtained based on cell viability, which was 24 h for LC and 36 h for LA and LCA. The model was particularly effective in estimating biomass growth, reducing sugar consumption, and lactic acid production. The values of the determination coefficient, R2, were 0.9946, 0.9913 and 0.9946, while the residual sum of square error, SSE, was 0.2876, 0.1738 and 0.1589 for LC, LA and LCA, respectively. The growth kinetic parameters included the maximum specific growth rate, µm, which was 0.2876 h-1, 0.1738 h-1 and 0.1589 h-1 as well as the substrate saturation, Ks, with 9.0680 g/L, 9.9337 g/L and 9.0709 g/L respectively for LC, LA and LCA. For the stoichiometric parameters, the yield of biomass based on utilized substrate (YXS) was 50.7932, 3.3940 and 61.0202, and the yield of product based on utilized substrate (YPS) was 2.4524, 0.2307 and 0.7415 for LC, LA, and LCA, respectively. In addition, the maintenance energy parameter (ms) was 0.0128, 0.0001 and 0.0004 with respect to LC, LA and LCA. With the kinetic model proposed by Luedeking and Piret for lactic acid production rate, the growth associated, and non-growth associated coefficients were determined as 1.0028 and 0.0109, respectively. The model was demonstrated for batch growth of LA, LC, and LCA in Annona muricata L. juice. The present investigation validates the potential of Annona muricata L. based medium for heightened economical production of a probiotic medium.

Keywords: L. acidophilus, L. casei, fermentation, modelling, kinetics

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Authors: Marda Vidrianto, Tania Surya Utami

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Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) is an artificial lift of choice to produce oil on Offshore Java Sea. It is selected based on the production rate capacity and running life expectation. ESP performance in a mature field is highly affected by oil well conditions. The presence of sand, scale, gas, and low influx will create unstable ESP operation hence lowering the run life expectation and system efficiency. This paper reviews the current energy usage and efficiency on every part of the ESP system. The hydraulic and electrical losses, as well as system efficiency for each well, are calculated to identify energy losses and the possibility for improvement. It is shown that high back pressure on the system and low-efficiency pump are the major contributors to energy losses. It was found that optimized production rate and the use of advanced technology on pump and motor unit could improve energy efficiency.

Keywords: advance technology, energy efficiency, ESP, mature field, production rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Abdullah Almatouq

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Understanding the impact of key operational variables on concurrent energy generation and phosphorus recovery in microbial fuel cell is required to improve the process and reduce the operational cost. In this study, full factorial design (FFD) and central composite designs (CCD) were employed to identify the effect of influent COD concentration and cathode aeration flow rate on energy generation and phosphorus (P) recovery and to optimise MFC power density and P recovery. Results showed that influent chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentration and cathode aeration flow rate had a significant effect on power density, coulombic efficiency, phosphorus precipitation efficiency and phosphorus precipitation rate at the cathode. P precipitation was negatively affected by the generated current during the batch duration. The generated energy was reduced due to struvite being precipitated on the cathode surface, which might obstruct the mass transfer of ions and oxygen. Response surface mathematical model was used to predict the optimum operating conditions that resulted in a maximum power density and phosphorus precipitation efficiency of 184 mW/m² and 84%, and this corresponds to COD= 1700 mg/L and aeration flow rate=210 mL/min. The findings highlight the importance of the operational conditions of energy generation and phosphorus recovery.

Keywords: energy, microbial fuel cell, phosphorus, struvite

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Authors: Bin Mu, Site Li, Shijin Yuan

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Under the circumstance of environment deterioration, people are increasingly concerned about the quality of the environment, especially air quality. As a result, it is of great value to give accurate and timely forecast of AQI (air quality index). In order to simplify influencing factors of air quality in a city, and forecast the city’s AQI tomorrow, this study used MATLAB software and adopted the method of constructing a mathematic model of PCA-GABP to provide a solution. To be specific, this study firstly made principal component analysis (PCA) of influencing factors of AQI tomorrow including aspects of weather, industry waste gas and IAQI data today. Then, we used the back propagation neural network model (BP), which is optimized by genetic algorithm (GA), to give forecast of AQI tomorrow. In order to verify validity and accuracy of PCA-GABP model’s forecast capability. The study uses two statistical indices to evaluate AQI forecast results (normalized mean square error and fractional bias). Eventually, this study reduces mean square error by optimizing individual gene structure in genetic algorithm and adjusting the parameters of back propagation model. To conclude, the performance of the model to forecast AQI is comparatively convincing and the model is expected to take positive effect in AQI forecast in the future.

Keywords: AQI forecast, principal component analysis, genetic algorithm, back propagation neural network model

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Authors: Satya Deo, Deepak Kumar Maurya

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The present study investigates the ow of a Newtonian fluid sandwiched between two rectangular porous channels filled with micropolar fluid in the presence of a uniform magnetic field applied in a direction perpendicular to that of the fluid motion. The governing equations of micropolar fluid are modified by Nowacki's approach. For respective porous channels, expressions for velocity vectors, microrotations, stresses (shear and couple) are obtained analytically. Continuity of velocities, continuities of micro rotations and continuity of stresses are used at the porous interfaces; conditions of no-slip and no spin are applied at the impervious boundaries of the composite channel. Numerical values of flow rate, wall shear stresses and couple stresses at the porous interfaces are calculated for different values of various parameters. Graphs of the ow rate and fluid velocity are plotted and their behaviors are discussed.

Keywords: couple stress, flow rate, Hartmann number, micropolar fluids

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Authors: Fredrik Hartwig, Peter Lindberg

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In 2004, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) issued new accounting standards for impairment testing of goodwill. IFRS 3 Business Combinations and IAS 36 Impairment of Assets prohibited amortization of acquired goodwill and instead required companies to test goodwill for impairment annually or more often if necessary. The goodwill impairment test is based on management’s judgement and estimations, making the impairment-only-approach subjective and unreliable. Management can use the discretion opportunistically by managing goodwill impairments. The IASB’s remedy to the reliability problem has been to demand transparent financial reports. IAS 36 paragraph 134 requires detailed disclosures regarding the impairment test in order to make potentially unreasonable assumptions and estimations visible. The disclosure requirements should thus (in theory) make it more difficult for management to ‘choose’ assumptions and estimations that suit an agenda. Whether the requirement to disclose detailed disclosures regarding the impairment test leads to less opportunism is however an empirical question. This work analyses whether one of the required disclosures in IAS 36 paragraph 134, the reported discount rate, differs from an independently estimated risk-adjusted discount rate. Estimates of discount rates that are either lower or higher than the independently estimated discount rate are here defined as opportunism. In the former case - i.e. when the reported discount rate is lower - the objective may be to avoid profit reducing impairment charges. In the latter case - i.e. when the reported discount rate is higher - the objective may be to reduce profits or take ‘big baths’. This paper differs in one important respect from previous similar studies, the majority of which are based on purely descriptive statistics; we use multivariate regression analysis to analyze what factors affect deviations between disclosed discount rates and independently estimated discount rates. The sample consists of Swedish and Finnish listed companies. Swedish and Finnish listed companies are analysed since the accounting oversight bodies differ between the two countries. The results show that discount rate deviations in Swedish and Finnish listed companies are significantly related to accounting oversight, size and industry but not financial risk, business risk and goodwill intensity.

Keywords: discount rate, manipulation, goodwill impairment test, disclosures

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Authors: Junfeng Yan, Wenkui Hou

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Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a technology to monitor the equipment status and predict impending faults. It is used to predict the potential fault and provide fault information and track trends of system degradation by capturing characteristics signals. So how to detect characteristics signals is very important. The select of test point plays a very important role in detecting characteristics signal. Traditionally, we use dependency model to select the test point containing the most detecting information. But, facing the large complicated system, the dependency model is not built so easily sometimes and the greater trouble is how to calculate the matrix. Rely on this premise, the paper provide a highly effective method to select test point without dependency model. Because signal flow model is a diagnosis model based on failure mode, which focuses on system’s failure mode and the dependency relationship between the test points and faults. In the signal flow model, a fault information can flow from the beginning to the end. According to the signal flow model, we can find out location and structure information of every test point and module. We break the signal flow model up into serial and parallel parts to obtain the final relationship function between the system’s testability or prediction metrics and test points. Further, through the partial derivatives operation, we can obtain every test point’s importance degree in determining the testability metrics, such as undetected rate, false alarm rate, untrusted rate. This contributes to installing the test point according to the real requirement and also provides a solid foundation for the Prognostics and Health Management. According to the real effect of the practical engineering application, the method is very efficient.

Keywords: false alarm rate, importance degree, signal flow model, undetected rate, untrusted rate

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Authors: Omar Bouhassoun, Cristian Garrido, César Hueso

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The radiation shielding design is an optimization problem with multiple -constrained- objective functions (radiation dose, weight, price, etc.) that depend on several parameters (material, thickness, position, etc.). The classical approach for shielding design consists of a brute force trial-and-error process subject to previous designer experience. Therefore, the result is an empirical solution but not optimal, which can degrade the overall performance of the shielding. In order to automate the shielding design procedure, the IDOM Shielding Optimization Tool (ISOT) has been developed. This software combines optimization algorithms with the capabilities to read/write input files, run calculations, as well as parse output files for different radiation transport codes. In the first stage, the software was established to adjust the input files for two well-known Monte Carlo codes (MCNP and Serpent) and optimize the result (weight, volume, price, dose rate) using multi-objective genetic algorithms. Nevertheless, its modular implementation easily allows the inclusion of more radiation transport codes and optimization algorithms. The work related to the development of ISOT and its verification on a simple 3D multi-layer shielding problem using both MCNP and Serpent will be presented. ISOT looks very promising for achieving an optimal solution to complex shielding problems.

Keywords: optimization, shielding, nuclear, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Saeedeh Imani Moqadam, Ilya Bobrov, Jérémy Epp, Nils Ellendt, Lutz Mädler

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High entropy alloys (HEAs), having adjustable properties and enhanced stability compared with intermetallic compounds, are solid solution alloys that contain more than five principal elements with almost equal atomic percentage. The concept of producing such alloys pave the way for developing advanced materials with unique properties. However, the synthesis of such alloys may require advanced processes with high cooling rates depending on which alloy elements are used. In this study, the micro spheres of different diameters of HEAs were generated via a drop-on-demand droplet generator and subsequently solidified during free-fall in an argon atmosphere. Such droplet generators can generate individual droplets with high reproducibility regarding droplet diameter, trajectory and cooling while avoiding any interparticle momentum or thermal coupling. Metallography as well as X-ray diffraction investigations for each diameter of the generated metallic droplets where then carried out to obtain information about the microstructural state. To calculate the cooling rate of the droplets, a droplet cooling model was developed and validated using model alloys such as CuSn%6 and AlCu%4.5 for which a correlation of secondary dendrite arm spacing (SDAS) and cooling rate is well-known. Droplets were generated from these alloys and their SDAS was determined using quantitative metallography. The cooling rate was then determined from the SDAS and used to validate the cooling rates obtained from the droplet cooling model. The application of that model on the HEA then leads to the cooling rate dependency and hence to the identification of process windows for the synthesis of these alloys. These process windows were then compared with cooling rates obtained in processes such as powder production, spray forming, selective laser melting and casting to predict if a synthesis is possible with these processes.

Keywords: cooling rate, drop-on-demand, high entropy alloys, microstructure, single droplet generation, X-ray Diffractometry

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Authors: Harish Kumar Arya, Kulwant Singh, R. K Saxena, Deepti Jaiswal

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The heat flow in weldment changes its nature from 2D to 3D with the increase in plate thickness. For welding of thicker plates the heat loss in thickness direction increases the cooling rate of plate. Since the cooling rate changes, the various bead parameters like bead penetration, bead height and bead width also got affected by it. The present study incorporates the effect of variable plate thickness on bead geometry and dilution. The penetration reduces with increase in plate thickness due to heat loss in thickness direction, while bead width and reinforcement increases for thicker plate due to faster cooling.

Keywords: submerged arc welding, plate thickness, bead geometry, cooling rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Keiko Naito, Y. Nakashima, S. Yamauchi, Y. Kunitani, Y. Ishigami, K. Numata, M. Mizobe, Y. Homma, J. Takahashi, T. Inoue, T. Shiga, H. Funakoshi

Abstract:

Background: A presence of severe acidemia, defined as pH < 7.2, is common during endotracheal intubation for critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED). Severe acidemia is widely recognized as a predisposing factor for intubation failure. However, it is unclear that acidemic condition itself actually makes endotracheal intubation more difficult. We aimed to evaluate if a presence of severe acidemia before intubation is associated with the lower first attempt intubation success rate in the ED. Methods: This is a retrospective observational cohort study in the ED of an urban hospital in Japan. The collected data included patient demographics, such as age, sex, and body mass index, presence of one or more factors of modified LEMON criteria for predicting difficult intubation, reasons for intubation, blood gas levels, airway equipment, intubation by emergency physician or not, and the use of the rapid sequence intubation technique. Those with any of the following were excluded from the analysis: (1) no blood gas drawn before intubation, (2) cardiopulmonary arrest, and (3) under 18 years of age. The primary outcome was the first attempt intubation success rates between a severe acidemic patients (SA) group and a non-severe acidemic patients (NA) group. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the first attempt success rates for intubations between those two groups. Results: Over 5 years, a total of 486 intubations were performed; 105 in the SA group and 381 in the NA group. The univariate analysis showed that the first attempt intubation success rate was lower in the SA group than in the NA group (71.4% vs 83.5%, p < 0.01). The multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that severe acidemia was significantly associated with the first attempt intubation failure (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.03-3.68, p = 0.04). Conclusions: A presence of severe acidemia before endotracheal intubation lowers the first attempt intubation success rate in the ED.

Keywords: acidemia, airway management, endotracheal intubation, first-attempt intubation success rate

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Authors: Lu Yu Jyun

Abstract:

Background: Health education is important nursing work aiming to strengthen patients’ self-caring ability and family members. Our department educates through three methods, including speech education, flyer and demonstration video education. The satisfaction rate of health education tool use is 54.3% in nursing staff. The main reason is there hadn’t been a storage area for flyers, causing extra workload in assessing flyers. The satisfaction rate of health education in patients and families is 70.7%. We aim to improve this situation between 13th April and 6th June 2021. Method: We introduce the ECRS method to erase repetitive and redundant actions. We redesign the health education tool usage workflow to improve nursing staffs’ efficiency and further enhance nursing staffs care quality and working satisfaction. Result: The satisfaction rate of health education tool usage in nursing staff elevated from 54.3% to 92.5%. The satisfaction rate of health education in patients and families elevated from 70.7% to 90.2%. Conclusion: The assessment time of health care tools dropped from 10minutes to 3minutes. This significantly reduced the nursing staffs’ workload. 1213 paper is saved in one month and 14,556 a year in the estimate; we save the environment via this action. Health education map implemented in other nursing departments since October due to its’ high efficiency and makes health care tools more humanize.

Keywords: health, education tools, satisfaction, nursing staff

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: Matej Buzgo, Erico Himawan, Ksenija JašIna, Aiva Simaite

Abstract:

Electrospinning is a versatile and efficient technology for producing nanofibers for biomedical applications. One of the most common polymers used for the preparation of nanofibers for regenerative medicine and drug delivery applications is polycaprolactone (PCL). PCL is a biocompatible and bioabsorbable material that can be used to stimulate the regeneration of various tissues. It is also a common material used for the development of drug delivery systems by blending the polymer with small active molecules. However, for many drug delivery applications, e.g. cancer immunotherapy, PCL biodegradation rate that may exceed 9 months is too long, and faster nanofiber dissolution is needed. In this paper, we investigate the dissolution and small molecule release rates of PCL blends with two hydrophilic polymers: polyethylene oxide (PEO) or polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP). We show that adding hydrophilic polymer to the PCL reduces the water contact angle, increases the dissolution rate, and strengthens the interactions between the hydrophilic drug and polymer matrix that further sustain its release. Finally using this method, we were also able to increase the nanofiber degradation rate when PCL-PEO and PCL-PVP were used as a shell in the electrospun core-shell nanofibers and spread up the release of active proteins from their core. Electrospinning can be used for the preparation of the core-shell nanofibers, where active ingredients are encapsulated in the core and their release rate is regulated by the shell. However, such fibers are usually prepared by coaxial electrospinning that is an extremely low-throughput technique. An alternative is emulsion electrospinning that could be upscaled using needleless blades. In this work, we investigate the possibility of using emulsion electrospinning for encapsulation and sustained release of the growth factors for the development of the organotypic skin models. The core-shell nanofibers were prepared using the optimized formulation and the release rate of proteins from the fibers was investigated for 2 weeks – typical cell culture conditions.

Keywords: electrospinning, polycaprolactone (PCL), polyethylene oxide (PEO), polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP)

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Authors: Ezaldin A. M. Mohammed, Youssef K. H. Abdalhafid, Masoud. M. Zatout

Abstract:

The study aims to clarify the toxic effect of plant hormones, which are widely used in agriculture. One of these is the plant hormones (indole acetic acid); has been ٳata hormone to rats at 100 ppm salt solution of 0.2 per day after day for a period of forty days before conception until the fourteenth day or sixteenth or childbirth. Treatment brought about a marked shortage in the rate of increase in the weight of mice., And a percentage of the weight of the liver there was a distinct increase in the relative weight of the liver. As well as the increase in pathological changes and increase the size of the nuclei and Kupffer cell, as noted widespread and dense clusters of inflammatory cells accompanied by about the erosion of liver tissue and blood ٳrchah. Biochemical analyzes showed a marked decrease of the liver in antioxidant enzymes and an increase in the rate of free radicals. It was also noted an increase in cases of abortion. The owner of so many birth defects. It was also noted the lack of body weight in fetuses and increase the absorption rate of embryos in fetuses of mothers treatment compared to the control group. Showed microscopic examinations of the liver of mice born in the transaction and the decay in the presence of hepatic cells and edema, blood vessels and increase the rate of cell death.

Keywords: indol acetic acid, liver, pathological changes, albino rats

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Authors: Gordana Kordić, Petra Palić

Abstract:

The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.

Keywords: currency board arrangement, internal devaluation, exchange rate regime, great recession

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Authors: Ati Sabrina, Arbouche Fodil

Abstract:

Petite Kaloise is an endemic variety of peanut in El Kala region preceding was grown dry around the three lakes (Mellah, obeira, and Tonga) was threatened by extinctions whose study of its nutritional value allows us to initiate its recovery and revive its culture. the results of the study showed that the rate of the mineral is low due to the absence of fertilization , the fat is between (48.79, 32.33, and 43.07) % respectively for sites (EL KALA, Frine, and OUM TEBOUL). Nitrogen matter is of the order of 29.86 %. lignin remains low, the rate is around 3.94 % promoting good digestibility of organic matter.

Keywords: digestible, lakes, petite kaloise, nutritional value

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