Search results for: inter-organizational climate study
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 51303

Search results for: inter-organizational climate study

50373 Remote Observation of Environmental Parameters on the Surface of the Maricunga Salt Flat, Atacama Region, Chile

Authors: Lican Guzmán, José Manuel Lattus, Mariana Cervetto, Mauricio Calderón

Abstract:

Today the estimation of effects produced by climate change in high Andean wetland environments is confronted by big challenges. This study provides a way to an analysis by remote sensing how some Ambiental aspects have evolved on the Maricunga salt flat in the last 30 years, divided into the summer and winter seasons, and if global warming is conditioning these changes. The first step to achieve this goal was the recompilation of geological, hydrological, and morphometric antecedents to ensure an adequate contextualization of its environmental parameters. After this, software processing and analysis of Landsat 5,7 and 8 satellite imagery was required to get the vegetation, water, surface temperature, and soil moisture indexes (NDVI, NDWI, LST, and SMI) in order to see how their spatial-temporal conditions have evolved in the area of study during recent decades. Results show a tendency of regular increase in surface temperature and disponibility of water during both seasons but with slight drought periods during summer. Soil moisture factor behaves as a constant during the dry season and with a tendency to increase during wintertime. Vegetation analysis shows an areal and quality increase of its surface sustained through time that is consistent with the increase of water supply and temperature in the basin mentioned before. Roughly, the effects of climate change can be described as positive for the Maricunga salt flat; however, the lack of exact correlation in dates of the imagery available to remote sensing analysis could be a factor for misleading in the interpretation of results.

Keywords: global warming, geology, SIG, Atacama Desert, Salar de Maricunga, environmental geology, NDVI, SMI, LST, NDWI, Landsat

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50372 Surface Temperature of Asphalt Pavements with Colored Cement-Based Grouting Materials Containing Ceramic Waste Powder and Zeolite

Authors: H. Higashiyama, M. Sano, F. Nakanishi, M. Sugiyama, M. Kawanishi, S. Tsukuma

Abstract:

The heat island phenomenon and extremely hot summer climate are becoming environmental problems in Japan. Cool pavements reduce the surface temperature compared to conventional asphalt pavements in the hot summer climate and improve the thermal environment in the urban area. The authors have studied cement–based grouting materials poured into voids in porous asphalt pavements to reduce the road surface temperature. For the cement–based grouting material, cement, ceramic waste powder, and natural zeolite were used. This cement–based grouting material developed reduced the road surface temperature by 20 °C or more in the hot summer season. Considering the urban landscape, this study investigates the effect of surface temperature reduction of colored cement–based grouting materials containing pigments poured into voids in porous asphalt pavements by measuring the surface temperature of asphalt pavements outdoors. The yellow color performed the same as the original cement–based grouting material containing no pigment and was thermally better performance than the other color. However, all the tested cement–based grouting materials performed well for reducing the surface temperature and for creating the urban landscape.

Keywords: ceramic waste powder, natural zeolite, road surface temperature, asphalt pavement, urban landscape

Procedia PDF Downloads 316
50371 Comparison of Salt-Water Intrusion into Eastern and Western Coastal Aquifers of Urmia Lake thru Over-Exploration of Groundwater Resources

Authors: Saman Javadi, Mohammad Hassan Mahmoudi, Fatemeh Jafari, Aminreza Neshat

Abstract:

Urmia Lake’s water level has been dropped during the past decade. Although the most common reason in studies was declared climate change, but observation of adjacent lake (like Van in Turkey) is not the same as the common reason. Most of studies were focused on climate and land use change, but groundwater resource as one of the most important element is negligible. Due to population and agriculture activities growth, exploration of groundwater resource has been increased. In as much as continued decline of water levels can lead to saltwater intrusion, reduce stream discharge near outcrop regions and threaten groundwater quality, aquifers of this region were affected by saltwater intrusion of Urmia Lake. In this research comparison of saltwater intrusion into eastern and western coastal aquifer was studied. In conclusion eastern aquifers are in a critical situation; vice versa the western ones are in a better situation. Thus applying management of groundwater operation would be necessary for eastern aquifers.

Keywords: coastal aquifer, groundwater over-exploration, saltwater intrusion, Urmia Lake

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50370 Eco-Products in Day-to-Day Life: A Catalyst for Achieving Sustainability

Authors: Rani Fernandez

Abstract:

As global concerns regarding environmental degradation and climate change intensify, the imperative for sustainable living has never been more critical. This research delves into the role of eco-products in everyday life as a pivotal strategy for achieving sustainability. The study investigates the awareness, adoption, and impact of eco-friendly products on individual and community levels. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining surveys, interviews, and case studies to explore consumer perceptions, behaviours, and motivations surrounding the use of eco-products. Additionally, life cycle assessments are conducted to evaluate the environmental footprint of selected eco-products, shedding light on their tangible contributions to sustainability. The findings reveal the diverse range of eco-products available in the market, from biodegradable packaging to energy-efficient appliances, and the extent to which consumers integrate these products into their daily routines. Moreover, the research examines the challenges and opportunities associated with widespread adoption, considering factors such as cost, accessibility, and efficacy. In addition to individual consumption patterns, the study investigates the broader societal impact of eco-product integration. It explores the potential for eco-products to drive systemic change by influencing supply chains, corporate practices, and government policies. The research highlights successful case studies of communities or businesses that have effectively incorporated eco-products, providing valuable insights into scalable models for sustainability. Ultimately, this research contributes to the discourse on sustainable living by elucidating the pivotal role of eco-products in shaping environmentally conscious behaviours. By understanding the dynamics of eco-product adoption, policymakers, businesses, and individuals can collaboratively work towards a more sustainable future. The implications of this study extend beyond academia, informing practical strategies for fostering a global shift towards sustainable consumption and production.

Keywords: eco-friendly, sustainablity, environment, climate change

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50369 Nonstationary Modeling of Extreme Precipitation in the Wei River Basin, China

Authors: Yiyuan Tao

Abstract:

Under the impact of global warming together with the intensification of human activities, the hydrological regimes may be altered, and the traditional stationary assumption was no longer satisfied. However, most of the current design standards of water infrastructures were still based on the hypothesis of stationarity, which may inevitably result in severe biases. Many critical impacts of climate on ecosystems, society, and the economy are controlled by extreme events rather than mean values. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the non-stationarity of precipitation extremes and model the precipitation extremes in a nonstationary framework. The Wei River Basin (WRB), located in a continental monsoon climate zone in China, is selected as a case study in this study. Six extreme precipitation indices were employed to investigate the changing patterns and stationarity of precipitation extremes in the WRB. To identify if precipitation extremes are stationary, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test, which is used to examine the occurrence of abrupt changes are adopted in this study. Extreme precipitation indices series are fitted with non-stationary distributions that selected from six widely used distribution functions: Gumbel, lognormal, Weibull, gamma, generalized gamma and exponential distributions by means of the time-varying moments model generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), where the distribution parameters are defined as a function of time. The results indicate that: (1) the trends were not significant for the whole WRB, but significant positive/negative trends were still observed in some stations, abrupt changes for consecutive wet days (CWD) mainly occurred in 1985, and the assumption of stationarity is invalid for some stations; (2) for these nonstationary extreme precipitation indices series with significant positive/negative trends, the GAMLSS models are able to capture well the temporal variations of the indices, and perform better than the stationary model. Finally, the differences between the quantiles of nonstationary and stationary models are analyzed, which highlight the importance of nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes in the WRB.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, GAMLSSS, non-stationary, Wei River Basin

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50368 Unveiling Drought Dynamics in the Cuneo District, Italy: A Machine Learning-Enhanced Hydrological Modelling Approach

Authors: Mohammadamin Hashemi, Mohammadreza Kashizadeh

Abstract:

Droughts pose a significant threat to sustainable water resource management, agriculture, and socioeconomic sectors, particularly in the field of climate change. This study investigates drought simulation using rainfall-runoff modelling in the Cuneo district, Italy, over the past 60-year period. The study leverages the TUW model, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a semi-distributed operation capability. Similar in structure to the widely used Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, the TUW model operates on daily timesteps for input and output data specific to each catchment. It incorporates essential routines for snow accumulation and melting, soil moisture storage, and streamflow generation. Multiple catchments' discharge data within the Cuneo district form the basis for thorough model calibration employing the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric. A crucial metric for reliable drought analysis is one that can accurately represent low-flow events during drought periods. This ensures that the model provides a realistic picture of water availability during these critical times. Subsequent validation of monthly discharge simulations thoroughly evaluates overall model performance. Beyond model development, the investigation delves into drought analysis using the robust Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). This index allows for precise characterization of drought occurrences within the study area. A meticulous comparison of observed and simulated discharge data is conducted, with particular focus on low-flow events that characterize droughts. Additionally, the study explores the complex interplay between land characteristics (e.g., soil type, vegetation cover) and climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) that influence the severity and duration of hydrological droughts. The study's findings demonstrate successful calibration of the TUW model across most catchments, achieving commendable model efficiency. Comparative analysis between simulated and observed discharge data reveals significant agreement, especially during critical low-flow periods. This agreement is further supported by the Pareto coefficient, a statistical measure of goodness-of-fit. The drought analysis provides critical insights into the duration, intensity, and severity of drought events within the Cuneo district. This newfound understanding of spatial and temporal drought dynamics offers valuable information for water resource management strategies and drought mitigation efforts. This research deepens our understanding of drought dynamics in the Cuneo region. Future research directions include refining hydrological modelling techniques and exploring future drought projections under various climate change scenarios.

Keywords: hydrologic extremes, hydrological drought, hydrological modelling, machine learning, rainfall-runoff modelling

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50367 Gradient-Based Reliability Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions: A Case Study in Ningbo, China

Authors: Da LI, Peng Xu

Abstract:

Recent extreme weather events, such as the 2021 European floods and North American heatwaves, have exposed the vulnerability of energy systems to both extreme demand scenarios and potential physical damage. Current integrated energy system designs often overlook performance under these challenging conditions. This research, focusing on a regional integrated energy system in Ningbo, China, proposes a distinct design method to optimize system reliability during extreme events. A multi-scenario model was developed, encompassing various extreme load conditions and potential system damages caused by severe weather. Based on this model, a comprehensive reliability improvement scheme was designed, incorporating a gradient approach to address different levels of disaster severity through the integration of advanced technologies like distributed energy storage. The scheme's effectiveness was validated through Monte Carlo simulations. Results demonstrate significant enhancements in energy supply reliability and peak load reduction capability under extreme scenarios. The findings provide several insights for improving energy system adaptability in the face of climate-induced challenges, offering valuable references for building reliable energy infrastructure capable of withstanding both extreme demands and physical threats across a spectrum of disaster intensities.

Keywords: extreme weather events, integrated energy systems, reliability improvement, climate change adaptation

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50366 Functions and Challenges of New County-Based Regional Plan in Taiwan

Authors: Yu-Hsin Tsai

Abstract:

A new, mandated county regional plan system has been initiated since 2010 nationwide in Taiwan, with its role situated in-between the policy-led cross-county regional plan and the blueprint-led city plan. This new regional plan contain both urban and rural areas in one single plan, which provides a more complete planning territory, i.e., city region within the county’s jurisdiction, and to be executed and managed effectively by the county government. However, the full picture of its functions and characteristics seems still not totally clear, compared with other levels of plans; either are planning goals and issues that can be most appropriately dealt with at this spatial scale. In addition, the extent to which the inclusion of sustainability ideal and measures to cope with climate change are unclear. Based on the above issues, this study aims to clarify the roles of county regional plan, to analyze the extent to which the measures cope with sustainability, climate change, and forecasted declining population, and the success factors and issues faced in the planning process. The methodology applied includes literature review, plan quality evaluation, and interview with officials of the central and local governments and urban planners involved for all the 23 counties in Taiwan. The preliminary research results show, first, growth management related policies have been widely implemented and expected to have effective impact, including incorporating resources capacity to determine maximum population for the city region as a whole, developing overall vision of urban growth boundary for all the whole city region, prioritizing infill development, and use of architectural land within urbanized area over rural area to cope with urban growth. Secondly, planning-oriented zoning is adopted in urban areas, while demand-oriented planning permission is applied in the rural areas with designated plans. Then, public participation has been evolved to the next level to oversee all of government’s planning and review processes due to the decreasing trust in the government, and development of public forum on the internet etc. Next, fertile agricultural land is preserved to maintain food self-supplied goal for national security concern. More adoption-based methods than mitigation-based methods have been applied to cope with global climate change. Finally, better land use and transportation planning in terms of avoiding developing rail transit stations and corridor in rural area is promoted. Even though many promising, prompt measures have been adopted, however, challenges exist to surround: first, overall urban density, likely affecting success of UGB, or use of rural agricultural land, has not been incorporated, possibly due to implementation difficulties. Second, land-use related measures to mitigating climate change seem less clear and hence less employed. Smart decline has not drawn enough attention to cope with predicted population decrease in the next decade. Then, some reluctance from county’s government to implement county regional plan can be observed vaguely possibly since limits have be set on further development on agricultural land and sensitive areas. Finally, resolving issue on existing illegal factories on agricultural land remains the most challenging dilemma.

Keywords: city region plan, sustainability, global climate change, growth management

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50365 By Removing High-Performance Aerobic Scope Phenotypes, Capture Fisheries May Reduce the Resilience of Fished Populations to Thermal Variability and Compromise Their Persistence into the Anthropocene.

Authors: Lauren A. Bailey, Amber R. Childs, Nicola C. James, Murray I. Duncan, Alexander Winkler, Warren M. Potts

Abstract:

For the persistence of fished populations in the Anthropocene, it is critical to predict how fished populations will respond to the coupled threats of exploitation and climate change for adaptive management. The resilience of fished populations will depend on their capacity for physiological plasticity and acclimatization in response to environmental shifts. However, there is evidence for the selection of physiological traits by capture fisheries. Hence, fish populations may have a limited scope for the rapid expansion of their tolerance ranges or physiological adaptation under fishing pressures. To determine the physiological vulnerability of fished populations in the Anthropocene, the metabolic performance was compared between a fished and spatially protected Chrysoblephus laticeps population in response to thermal variability. Individual aerobic scope phenotypes were quantified using intermittent flow respirometry by comparing changes in energy expenditure of each individual at ecologically relevant temperatures, mimicking variability experienced as a result of upwelling and downwelling events. The proportion of high and low-performance individuals were compared between the fished and spatially protected population. The fished population had limited aerobic scope phenotype diversity and fewer high-performance phenotypes, resulting in a significantly lower aerobic scope curve across low (10 °C) and high (24 °C) thermal treatments. The performance of fished populations may be compromised with predicted future increases in cold upwelling events. This requires the conservation of the physiologically fittest individuals in spatially protected areas, which can recruit into nearby fished areas, as a climate resilience tool.

Keywords: climate change, fish physiology, metabolic shifts, over-fishing, respirometry

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50364 A Study on Utilizing Temporary Water Treatment Facilities to Tackle Century-Long Drought and Emergency Water Supply

Authors: Yu-Che Cheng, Min-Lih Chang, Ke-Hao Cheng, Chuan-Cheng Wang

Abstract:

Taiwan is an island located along the southeastern coast of the Asian continent, located between Japan and the Philippines. It is surrounded by the sea on all sides. However, due to the presence of the Central Mountain Range, the rivers on the east and west coasts of Taiwan are relatively short. This geographical feature results in a phenomenon where, despite having rainfall that is 2.6 times the world average, 58.5% of the rainwater flows into the ocean. Moreover, approximately 80% of the annual rainfall occurs between May and October, leading to distinct wet and dry periods. To address these challenges, Taiwan relies on large reservoirs, storage ponds, and groundwater extraction for water resource allocation. It is necessary to construct water treatment facilities at suitable locations to provide the population with a stable and reliable water supply. In general, the construction of a new water treatment plant requires careful planning and evaluation. The process involves acquiring land and issuing contracts for construction in a sequential manner. With the increasing severity of global warming and climate change, there is a heightened risk of extreme hydrological events and severe water situations in the future. In cases of urgent water supply needs in a region, relying on traditional lengthy processes for constructing water treatment plants might not be sufficient to meet the urgent demand. Therefore, this study aims to explore the use of simplified water treatment procedures and the construction of rapid "temporary water treatment plants" to tackle the challenges posed by extreme climate conditions (such as a century-long drought) and situations where water treatment plant construction cannot keep up with the pace of water source development.

Keywords: temporary water treatment plant, emergency water supply, construction site groundwater, drought

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50363 International Solar Alliance: A Case for Indian Solar Diplomacy

Authors: Swadha Singh

Abstract:

International Solar Alliance is the foremost treaty-based global organization concerned with tapping the potential of sun-abundant nations between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn and enables co-operation among them. As a founding member of the International Solar Alliance, India exhibits its positioning as an upcoming leader in clean energy. India has set ambitious goals and targets to expand the share of solar in its energy mix and is playing a proactive role both at the regional and global levels. ISA aims to serve multiple goals- bring about scale commercialization of solar power, boost domestic manufacturing, and leverage solar diplomacy in African countries, amongst others. Against this backdrop, this paper attempts to examine the ways in which ISA as an intergovernmental organization under Indian leadership can leverage the cause of clean energy (solar) diplomacy and effectively shape partnerships and collaborations with other developing countries in terms of sharing solar technology, capacity building, risk mitigation, mobilizing financial investment and providing an aggregate market. A more specific focus of ISA is on the developing countries, which in the absence of a collective, are constrained by technology and capital scarcity, despite being naturally endowed with solar resources. Solar rich but finance-constrained economies face political risk, foreign exchange risk, and off-taker risk. Scholars argue that aligning India’s climate change discourse and growth prospects in its engagements, collaborations, and partnerships at the bilateral, multilateral and regional level can help promote trade, attract investments, and promote resilient energy transition both in India and in partner countries. For developing countries, coming together in an action-oriented way on issues of climate and clean energy is particularly important since it is developing and underdeveloped countries that face multiple and coalescing challenges such as the adverse impact of climate change, uneven and low access to reliable energy, and pressing employment needs. Investing in green recovery is agreed to be an assured way to create resilient value chains, create sustainable livelihoods, and help mitigate climate threats. If India is able to ‘green its growth’ process, it holds the potential to emerge as a climate leader internationally. It can use its experience in the renewable sector to guide other developing countries in balancing multiple similar objectives of development, energy security, and sustainability. The challenges underlying solar expansion in India have lessons to offer other developing countries, giving India an opportunity to assume a leadership role in solar diplomacy and expand its geopolitical influence through inter-governmental organizations such as ISA. It is noted that India has limited capacity to directly provide financial funds and support and is not a leading manufacturer of cheap solar equipment, as does China; however, India can nonetheless leverage its large domestic market to scale up the commercialization of solar power and offer insights and learnings to similarly placed abundant solar countries. The paper examines the potential of and limits placed on India’s solar diplomacy.

Keywords: climate diplomacy, energy security, solar diplomacy, renewable energy

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50362 Ranking of Optimal Materials for Building Walls from the Perspective of Cost and Waste of Electricity and Gas Energy Using AHP-TOPSIS 1 Technique: Study Example: Sari City

Authors: Seyedomid Fatemi

Abstract:

The walls of the building, as the main intermediary between the outside and the inside of the building, play an important role in controlling the environmental conditions and ensuring the comfort of the residents, thus reducing the heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the use of suitable materials is considered one of the simplest and most effective ways to reduce the heating and cooling loads of the building, which will also save energy. Therefore, in order to achieve the goal of the research "Ranking of optimal materials for building walls," optimal materials for building walls in a temperate and humid climate (case example: Sari city) from the perspective of embodied energy, waste of electricity and gas energy, cost and reuse been investigated to achieve sustainable architecture. In this regard, using information obtained from Sari Municipality, design components have been presented by experts using the Delphi method. Considering the criteria of experts' opinions (cost and reuse), the amount of embodied energy of the materials, as well as the amount of waste of electricity and gas of different materials of the walls, with the help of the AHP weighting technique and finally with the TOPSIS technique, the best type of materials in the order of 1- 3-D Panel 2-ICF-, 3-Cement block with pumice, 4-Wallcrete block, 5-Clay block, 6-Autoclaved Aerated Concrete (AAC), 7-Foam cement block, 8-Aquapanel and 9-Reinforced concrete wall for use in The walls of the buildings were proposed in Sari city.

Keywords: optimum materials, building walls, moderate and humid climate, sustainable architecture, AHP-TOPSIS technique

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50361 Gathering Space after Disaster: Understanding the Communicative and Collective Dimensions of Resilience through Field Research across Time in Hurricane Impacted Regions of the United States

Authors: Jack L. Harris, Marya L. Doerfel, Hyunsook Youn, Minkyung Kim, Kautuki Sunil Jariwala

Abstract:

Organizational resilience refers to the ability to sustain business or general work functioning despite wide-scale interruptions. We focus on organization and businesses as a pillar of their communities and how they attempt to sustain work when a natural disaster impacts their surrounding regions and economies. While it may be more common to think of resilience as a trait possessed by an organization, an emerging area of research recognizes that for organizations and businesses, resilience is a set of processes that are constituted through communication, social networks, and organizing. Indeed, five processes, robustness, rapidity, resourcefulness, redundancy, and external availability through social media have been identified as critical to organizational resilience. These organizing mechanisms involve multi-level coordination, where individuals intersect with groups, organizations, and communities. Because the nature of such interactions are often networks of people and organizations coordinating material resources, information, and support, they necessarily require some way to coordinate despite being displaced. Little is known, however, if physical and digital spaces can substitute one for the other. We thus are guided by the question, is digital space sufficient when disaster creates a scarcity of physical space? This study presents a cross-case comparison based on field research from four different regions of the United States that were impacted by Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Sandy (2012), Maria (2017), and Harvey (2017). These four cases are used to extend the science of resilience by examining multi-level processes enacted by individuals, communities, and organizations that together, contribute to the resilience of disaster-struck organizations, businesses, and their communities. Using field research about organizations and businesses impacted by the four hurricanes, we code data from interviews, participant observations, field notes, and document analysis drawn from New Orleans (post-Katrina), coastal New Jersey (post-Sandy), Houston Texas (post-Harvey), and the lower keys of Florida (post-Maria). This paper identifies an additional organizing mechanism, networked gathering spaces, where citizens and organizations, alike, coordinate and facilitate information sharing, material resource distribution, and social support. Findings show that digital space, alone, is not a sufficient substitute to effectively sustain organizational resilience during a disaster. Because the data are qualitative, we expand on this finding with specific ways in which organizations and the people who lead them worked around the problem of scarce space. We propose that gatherings after disaster are a sixth mechanism that contributes to organizational resilience.

Keywords: communication, coordination, disaster management, information and communication technologies, interorganizational relationships, resilience, work

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50360 Power Production Performance of Different Wave Energy Converters in the Southwestern Black Sea

Authors: Ajab G. Majidi, Bilal Bingölbali, Adem Akpınar

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the amount of energy (economic wave energy potential) that can be obtained from the existing wave energy converters in the high wave energy potential region of the Black Sea in terms of wave energy potential and their performance at different depths in the region. The data needed for this purpose were obtained using the calibrated nested layered SWAN wave modeling program version 41.01AB, which was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) winds from 1979 to 2009. The wave dataset at a time interval of 2 hours was accumulated for a sub-grid domain for around Karaburun beach in Arnavutkoy, a district of Istanbul city. The annual sea state characteristic matrices for the five different depths along with a vertical line to the coastline were calculated for 31 years. According to the power matrices of different wave energy converter systems and characteristic matrices for each possible installation depth, the probability distribution tables of the specified mean wave period or wave energy period and significant wave height were calculated. Then, by using the relationship between these distribution tables, according to the present wave climate, the energy that the wave energy converter systems at each depth can produce was determined. Thus, the economically feasible potential of the relevant coastal zone was revealed, and the effect of different depths on energy converter systems is presented. The Oceantic at 50, 75 and 100 m depths and Oyster at 5 and 25 m depths presents the best performance. In the 31-year long period 1998 the most and 1989 is the least dynamic year.

Keywords: annual power production, Black Sea, efficiency, power production performance, wave energy converter

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50359 Modelization of Land Degradation by Desertification Using Medalus Method, Case Study of the Wilaya of Saida, Algeria

Authors: Fekir Youcef, Mederbal Khalladi, M. A. Hamadouche, D. Anteur

Abstract:

Algeria is one of the countries that are highly affected by desertification which is the consequence of several factors. For this purpose, there is a need to study this problem by quantitative approaches. In this study, we apply the MEDALUS method (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use) to a watershed located in Saida town in semi-arid environment in the south west of Algeria. The method is based on sensitive areas identification by making use of the different parameters that may affect the desertification process such as vegetation, soil, climate and management. Spatial analyses are strong tools that allow modelization of each indicator. Results show that according to European standards, a large scale of the watershed falls into critical classes. And therefore, the modelization approach can be an effective way to study and understand the desertification showing an example of the project of the green dam that limits the desertification process to affect the north areas off Algeria.

Keywords: Algeria, desertification, MEDALUS, modelization

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50358 Phenotype of Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a Brazilian City with a Tropical Climate

Authors: Julia V. F. Cortes, Maria E. V. Amarante, Carolina L. Cerdeira, Roberta B. V. Silva

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Nonmelanoma skin cancer is more commonly diagnosed than all other malignancies combined. In that group, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma stands out for having the highest probability of metastasis and recurrence after treatment, in addition to being the second most prevalent form of skin cancer. Its main risk factors include exposure to carcinogens, such as ultraviolet radiation related to sunlight exposure, smoking, alcohol consumption, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Considering the increased risk of skin cancer in the Brazilian population, caused by the high incidence of solar radiation, and the importance of identifying risk phenotypes for the accomplishment of public health actions, an epidemiological study was conducted in a city with a tropical climate located in southeastern Brazil, aiming to identify the target population and assist in primary and secondary prevention. This study describes the profile of patients with cutaneous squamous cell cancer, correlating the variables, sex, age, and differentiation. The study used as primary data source the results of anatomopathological exams delivered from January 2015 to December 2019 for patients registered at one pathology service, which analyzes the results of biopsies, Thus, 66 patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma were analyzed. The most affected age group was 60 years or older (78.79%), emphasizing that moderately differentiated (79.49%) and well-differentiated forms (66.67%) are prevalent in this age group, resulting in a difference of 12.82 percentage points between them. In addition, the predominant sex was male (58%), and it was found that half of the women and 65.79% of men had a moderately differentiated type, whereas the well-differentiated type was slightly more frequent in women. It is worth noting that the moderately differentiated subtype has a 59.20% prevalence among all cases. Thus, it was concluded that the most affected age group was 60 years or older and that men were more affected. As for the subtype, the moderately differentiated one, which is recognized for presenting the second-highest risk for metastasis, was prevalent in this study, affecting 6.6% more men and predominating in the elderly.

Keywords: cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, epidemiology, skin cancer, spinal cell cancer

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50357 Degradation of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Components across Locations

Authors: Timothy E. Frank, Josh R. Aldred, Sophie B. Boulware, Michelle K. Cabonce, Justin H. White

Abstract:

Materials degrade at different rates in different environments depending on factors such as temperature, aridity, salinity, and solar radiation. Therefore, predicting asset longevity depends, in part, on the environmental conditions to which the asset is exposed. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are critical to building operations yet are responsible for a significant proportion of their energy consumption. HVAC energy use increases substantially with slight operational inefficiencies. Understanding the environmental influences on HVAC degradation in detail will inform maintenance schedules and capital investment, reduce energy use, and increase lifecycle management efficiency. HVAC inspection records spanning 14 years from 21 locations across the United States were compiled and associated with the climate conditions to which they were exposed. Three environmental features were explored in this study: average high temperature, average low temperature, and annual precipitation, as well as four non-environmental features. Initial insights showed no correlations between individual features and the rate of HVAC component degradation. Using neighborhood component analysis, however, the most critical features related to degradation were identified. Two models were considered, and results varied between them. However, longitude and latitude emerged as potentially the best predictors of average HVAC component degradation. Further research is needed to evaluate additional environmental features, increase the resolution of the environmental data, and develop more robust models to achieve more conclusive results.

Keywords: climate, degradation, HVAC, neighborhood component analysis

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50356 Influence of Digestate Fertilization on Soil Microbial Activity, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Yield

Authors: M. Doyeni, S. Suproniene, V. Tilvikiene

Abstract:

Agricultural wastes contribute significantly to global climate change through greenhouse gas emissions if not adequately recycled and sustainably managed. A recurring agricultural waste is livestock wastes that have consistently served as feedstock for biogas systems. The objective of this study was to access the influence of digestate fertilization on soil microbial activity and greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural fields. Wheat (Triticum spp. L.) was fertilized with different types of animal wastes digestates (organic fertilizers) and mineral nitrogen (inorganic fertilizer) for three years. The 170 kg N ha⁻¹ presented in digestates were split fertilized at an application rate of 90 and 80 kg N ha⁻¹. The soil microorganism activity could be predicted significantly using the dehydrogenase activity and soil microbial biomass carbon. By combining the two different monitoring approaches, the different methods applied in this study were sensitive to enzymatic activities and organic carbon in the living component of the soil organic matter. The emissions of greenhouse gasses (carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) were monitored directly by a static chamber system. The soil and environmental variables were measured to determine their influence on greenhouse gas emissions. Emission peaks was observed in N₂O and CO₂ after the first application of fertilizers with the emissions flattening out over the cultivating season while CH₄ emission was negligible with no apparent patterns observed. Microbial biomass carbon and dehydrogenase activity were affected by the fertilized organic digestates. A significant difference was recorded between the control and the digestate treated soils for the microbial biomass carbon and dehydrogenase. Results also showed individual and cumulative emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O from the digestates were relatively low suggesting the digestate fertilization can be an efficient method for improving soil quality and reducing greenhouse gases from agricultural sources in temperate climate conditions.

Keywords: greenhouse gas emission, manure digestate, soil microbial activity, yield

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50355 A Platform for Managing Residents' Carbon Trajectories Based on the City Intelligent Model (CIM) 4.0

Authors: Chen Xi, Liu Xuebing, Lao Xuerui, Kuan Sinman, Jiang Yike, Wang Hanwei, Yang Xiaolang, Zhou Junjie, Xie Jinpeng

Abstract:

Climate change is a global problem facing humanity and this is now the consensus of the mainstream scientific community. In accordance with the carbon peak and carbon neutral targets and visions set out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, this project uses the City Intelligent Model (CIM) and Artificial Intelligence Machine Vision (ICR) as the core technologies to accurately quantify low carbon behaviour into green corn, which is a means of guiding ecologically sustainable living patterns. Using individual communities as management units and blockchain as a guarantee of fairness in the whole cycle of green currency circulation, the project will form a modern resident carbon track management system based on the principle of enhancing the ecological resilience of communities and the cohesiveness of community residents, ultimately forming an ecologically sustainable smart village that can be self-organised and managed.

Keywords: urban planning, urban governance, CIM, artificial Intelligence, sustainable development

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50354 Spherical Organic Particle (SOP) Emissions from Fixed-Bed Residential Coal-Burning Devices

Authors: Tafadzwa Makonese, Harold Annegarn, Patricia Forbes

Abstract:

Residential coal combustion is one of the largest sources of carbonaceous aerosols in the Highveld region of South Africa, significantly affecting the local and regional climate. In this study, we investigated single coal burning particles emitted when using different fire-ignition techniques (top-lit up-draft vs bottom-lit up-draft) and air ventilation rates (defined by the number of air holes above and below the fire grate) in selected informal braziers. Aerosol samples were collected on nucleopore filters at the SeTAR Centre Laboratory, University of Johannesburg. Individual particles (~700) were investigated using a scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Two distinct forms of spherical organic particles (SOPs) were identified, one less oxidized than the other. The particles were further classified into "electronically" dark and bright, according to China et al. [2014]. EDS analysis showed that 70% of the dark spherical organic particles balls had higher (~60%) relative oxygen content than in the bright SOPs. We quantify the morphology of spherical organic particles and classify them into four categories: ~50% are bare single particles; ~35% particles are aggregated and form diffusion accretion chains; 10% have inclusions; and 5% are deformed due to impaction on filter material during sampling. We conclude that there are two distinct kinds of coal burning spherical organic particles and that dark SOPs are less volatile than bright SOPs. We also show that these spherical organic particles are similar in nature and characteristics to tar balls observed in biomass combustion, and that they have the potential to absorb sunlight thereby affecting the earth’s radiative budget and climate. This study provides insights on the mixing states, morphology, and possible formation mechanisms of these organic particles from residential coal combustion in informal stoves.

Keywords: spherical organic particles, residential coal combustion, fixed-bed, aerosols, morphology, stoves

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50353 Assessment of OTA Contamination in Rice from Fungal Growth Alterations in a Scenario of Climate Changes

Authors: Carolina S. Monteiro, Eugénia Pinto, Miguel A. Faria, Sara C. Cunha

Abstract:

Rice (Oryza sativa) production plays a vital role in reducing hunger and poverty and assumes particular importance in low-income and developing countries. Rice is a sensitive plant, and production occurs strictly where suitable temperature and water conditions are found. Climatic changes are likely to affect worldwide, and some models have predicted increased temperatures, variations in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and modification in precipitation patterns. Therefore, the ongoing climatic changes threaten rice production by increasing biotic and abiotic stress factors, and crops will grow in different environmental conditions in the following years. Around the world, the effects will be regional and can be detrimental or advantageous depending on the region. Mediterranean zones have been identified as possible hot spots, where dramatic temperature changes, modifications of CO₂ levels, and rainfall patterns are predicted. The actual estimated atmospheric CO₂ concentration is around 400 ppm, and it is predicted that it can reach up to 1000–1200 ppm, which can lead to a temperature increase of 2–4 °C. Alongside, rainfall patterns are also expected to change, with more extreme wet/dry episodes taking place. As a result, it could increase the migration of pathogens, and a shift in the occurrence of mycotoxins, concerning their types and concentrations, is expected. Mycotoxigenic spoilage fungi can colonize the crops and be present in all rice food chain supplies, especially Penicillium species, mainly resulting in ochratoxin A (OTA) contamination. In this scenario, the objectives of the present study are evaluating the effect of temperature (20 vs. 25 °C), CO₂ (400 vs. 1000 ppm), and water stress (0.93 vs 0.95 water activity) on growth and OTA production by a Penicillium nordicum strain in vitro on rice-based media and when colonizing layers of raw rice. Results demonstrate the effect of temperature, CO₂ and drought on the OTA production in a rice-based environment, thus contributing to the development of mycotoxins predictive models in climate change scenarios. As a result, improving mycotoxins' surveillance and monitoring systems, whose occurrence can be more frequent due to climatic changes, seems relevant and necessary. The development of prediction models for hazard contaminants presents in foods highly sensitive to climatic changes, such as mycotoxins, in the highly probable new agricultural scenarios is of paramount importance.

Keywords: climate changes, ochratoxin A, penicillium, rice

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50352 Moisture Variations in Unbound Layers in an Instrumented Pavement Section

Authors: R. Islam, Rafiqul A. Tarefder

Abstract:

This study presents the moisture variations of unbound layers from April 2012 to January 2014 in the Interstate 40 (I-40) pavement section in New Mexico. Three moisture probes were installed at different layers inside the pavement which measure the continuous moisture variations of the pavement. Data show that the moisture contents of unbound layers are typically constant throughout the day and month unless there is rainfall. Moisture contents of all unbound layers change with rainfall. Change in ground water table may affect the moisture content of unbound layers which has not investigated in this study. In addition, the Level 3 predictions of moisture contents using the Pavement Mechanistic-Empirical (ME) Design software are compared and found quite reasonable. However, results presented in the current study may not be applicable for pavement in other regions.

Keywords: asphalt pavement, moisture probes, resilient modulus, climate model

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50351 From Protection of Sacrificial Self, to Critical Turning Points and Growth: Nurses’ Experiences of Caring for Patients on the Frontline in Ireland during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Sinead Creedon, Anna Trace

Abstract:

Nurses were the most exposed of all frontline healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mainly female nurses working in the acute hospital sector formed the frontline defence in the Irish health service. They faced it with resilience and courage despite exposure to risk of burnout and threats to their mental health and wellbeing. Gaining an understanding of the nurses’ journey in adapting to this harsh climate could inform positive psychology interventions and / or support staff such as senior hospital managers in an adverse work situation. Furthermore, it would strengthen our insight and theoretical understanding on the use of positive psychology interventions in adverse work conditions. An interpretative phenomenological analysis was carried out to gain insight into how nurses adapted to the changing work environment during the pandemic. Online semi-structured interviews were done with six experienced female nurses who were all redeployed to the frontline from their own roles. The three themes representing the nurses’ journey were the Protection of Sacrificial Self, The Fortifying Effect of Us, and Critical Turning Points & Growth. Nurses revitalised themselves by creating a sense of ‘us’ to help them face a harsh climate against others, which enabled additional critical turning points. This study further enriches our understanding of personal growth and trauma in adverse work conditions by including an exploration of what sacrificial commitment adds to our understanding of physical and moral courage.

Keywords: COVID-19, nurses, positive psychology, resilience, sacrificial commitment, supports

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50350 Public Health Infrastructure Resilience in the Face of Natural Disasters in Rwanda

Authors: Jessy Rugeyo, William Donner

Abstract:

This research delves into the resilience of Rwanda's public health infrastructure amidst natural disasters, a critical issue given that the Northern Province alone has witnessed no fewer than 1500 cases of disaster ranging from floods and landslides in the last five years, with more than 200 people killed and thousands of homes destroyed, according to MINEMA. In an era where climate change escalates the frequency and intensity of such disasters, fortifying the resilience of public health systems is paramount. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the existing state of Rwanda's public health infrastructure and its ability to manage such crises. Employing a mix of literature review, case studies, and policy analysis, the study discerns key vulnerabilities and brings to light the intricacies of disaster management in Rwanda. Case studies centered around past natural disasters in Rwanda provide critical insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the existing disaster response mechanisms. A thorough critique of related disaster management and public health infrastructure policies reveals areas of commendable practice, along with gaps calling for policy enhancements. Findings guide the proposition of targeted strategies to bolster the resilience of Rwanda's public health infrastructure. This research serves as a significant contribution to the domains of disaster studies and public health, offering valuable insights for policymakers, public health and disaster management professionals in Rwanda and similar contexts. It presents actionable recommendations for improvement, underscoring the potential for enhancing Rwanda's disaster management capacity. By advocating for the strengthening of public health infrastructure resilience, the research highlights the potential for improved public health outcomes following natural disasters, thereby showcasing significant implications for public health and disaster management in the country, particularly in the face of a changing climate.

Keywords: public health infrastructure, disaster resilience, natural disaster, disaster management, emergency preparedness, health policy

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50349 Remote Sensing of Urban Land Cover Change: Trends, Driving Forces, and Indicators

Authors: Wei Ji

Abstract:

This study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States, which has experienced significant urban sprawling in recent decades. The remote sensing of land cover changes in this area spanned over four decades from 1972 through 2010. The project was implemented in two stages: the first stage focused on detection of long-term trends of urban land cover change, while the second one examined how to detect the coupled effects of human impact and climate change on urban landscapes. For the first-stage study, six Landsat images were used with a time interval of about five years for the period from 1972 through 2001. Four major land cover types, built-up land, forestland, non-forest vegetation land, and surface water, were mapped using supervised image classification techniques. The study found that over the three decades the built-up lands in the study area were more than doubled, which was mainly at the expense of non-forest vegetation lands. Surprisingly and interestingly, the area also saw a significant gain in surface water coverage. This observation raised questions: How have human activities and precipitation variation jointly impacted surface water cover during recent decades? How can we detect such coupled impacts through remote sensing analysis? These questions led to the second stage of the study, in which we designed and developed approaches to detecting fine-scale surface waters and analyzing coupled effects of human impact and precipitation variation on the waters. To effectively detect urban landscape changes that might be jointly shaped by precipitation variation, our study proposed “urban wetscapes” (loosely-defined urban wetlands) as a new indicator for remote sensing detection. The study examined whether urban wetscape dynamics was a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two driving forces. To better detect this indicator, a rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. Three SPOT images for years 1992, 2008, and 2010, respectively were classified with this technique to generate the four types of land cover as described above. The spatial analyses of remotely-sensed wetscape changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed, as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to accurately reveal urban wetscape change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that urban wetscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds in response to human impacts at different scales. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while generally smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These results confirm that wetscape dynamics can effectively reveal the coupled effects of human impact and climate change on urban landscapes. As such, remote sensing of this indicator provides new insights into the relationships between urban land cover changes and driving forces.

Keywords: urban land cover, human impact, climate change, rule-based classification, across-scale analysis

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50348 The Analysis of Regulation on Sustainability in the Financial Sector in Lithuania

Authors: Dalia Kubiliūtė

Abstract:

Lithuania is known as a trusted location for global business institutions, and it attracts investors with it’s competitive environment for financial service providers. Along with the aspiration to offer a strong results-oriented and innovations-driven environment for financial service providers, Lithuanian regulatory authorities consistently implement the European Union's high regulatory standards for financial activities, including sustainability-related disclosures. Since European Union directed its policy towards transition to a climate-neutral, green, competitive, and inclusive economy, additional regulatory requirements for financial market participants are adopted: disclosure of sustainable activities, transparency, prevention of greenwashing, etc. The financial sector is one of the key factors influencing the implementation of sustainability objectives in European Union policies and mitigating the negative effects of climate change –public funds are not enough to make a significant impact on sustainable investments, therefore directing public and private capital to green projects may help to finance the necessary changes. The topic of the study is original and has not yet been widely analyzed in Lithuanian legal discourse. There are used quantitative and qualitative methodologies, logical, systematic, and critical analysis principles; hence the aim of this study is to reveal the problem of the implementation of the regulation on sustainability in the Lithuanian financial sector. Additional regulatory requirements could cause serious changes in financial business operations: additional funds, employees, and time have to be dedicated in order for the companies could implement these regulations. Lack of knowledge and data on how to implement new regulatory requirements towards sustainable reporting causes a lot of uncertainty for financial market participants. And for some companies, it might even be an essential point in terms of business continuity. It is considered that the supervisory authorities should find a balance between financial market needs and legal regulation.

Keywords: financial, legal, regulatory, sustainability

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50347 The Effects of Future Priming on Resource Concern

Authors: Calvin Rong, Regina Agassian, Mindy Engle-Friedman

Abstract:

Climate changes, including rising sea levels and increases in global temperature, can have major effects on resource availability, leading to increased competition for resources and rising food prices. The abstract nature and often delayed consequences of many ecological problems cause people focus on immediate, specific, and personal events and circumstances that compel immediate and emotional involvement. This finding may be explained by the challenges humans have in imagining themselves in the future, a shortcoming that interferes with decision-making involving far-off rewards, and leads people to indicate a lower concern toward the future than to present circumstances. The present study sought to assess whether priming people to think of themselves in the future might strengthen the connection to their future selves and stimulate environmentally-protective behavior. We hypothesize that priming participants to think about themselves in the future would increase concern for the future environment. 45 control participants were primed to think about themselves in the present, and 42 participants were primed to think about themselves in the futures. After priming, the participants rated their concern over access to clean water, food, and energy on a scale of 1 to 10. They also rated their predicted care levels for the environment at age points 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 on a scale of 1(not at all) to 10 (very much). Predicted care levels at age 90 for the experimental group was significantly higher than for the control group. Overall the experimental group rated their concern for resources higher than the control. In comparison to the control group (M=7.60, SD=2.104) participants in the experimental group had greater concern for clean water (M=8.56, SD=1.534). In comparison to the control group (M=7.49, SD=2.041) participants in the experimental group were more concerned about food resources (M=8.41, SD=1.830). In comparison to the control group (M=7.22, SD=1.999) participants in the experimental group were more concerned about energy resources (M=8.07, SD=1.967). This study assessed whether a priming strategy could be used to encourage pro-environmental practices that protect limited resources. Future-self priming helped participants see past short term issues and focus on concern for the future environment.

Keywords: climate change, future, priming, global warming

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50346 The Implication of Disaster Risk Identification to Cultural Heritage-The Scenarios of Flood Risk in Taiwan

Authors: Jieh-Jiuh Wang

Abstract:

Disasters happen frequently due to the global climate changes today. The cultural heritage conservation should be considered from the perspectives of surrounding environments and large-scale disasters. Most current thoughts about the disaster prevention of cultural heritages in Taiwan are single-point thoughts emphasizing firefighting, decay prevention, and construction reinforcement and ignoring the whole concept of the environment. The traditional conservation cannot defend against more and more tremendous and frequent natural disasters caused by climate changes. More and more cultural heritages are confronting the high risk of disasters. This study adopts the perspective of risk identification and takes flood as the main disaster category. It analyzes the amount and categories of cultural heritages that might suffer from disasters with the geographic information system integrating the latest flooding potential data from National Fire Agency and Water Resources Agency and the basic data of cultural heritages. It examines the actual risk of cultural heritages confronting floods and serves as the accordance for future considerations of risk measures and preparation for reducing disasters. The result of the study finds the positive relationship between the disaster affected situation of national cultural heritages and the rainfall intensity. The order of impacted level by floods is historical buildings, historical sites indicated by municipalities and counties, and national historical sites and relics. However, traditional settlements and cultural landscapes are not impacted. It might be related to the taboo space in the traditional culture of site selection (concepts of disaster avoidance). As for the regional distribution on the other hand, cultural heritages in central and northern Taiwan suffer from more shocking floods, while the heritages in northern and eastern Taiwan suffer from more serious flooding depth.

Keywords: cultural heritage, flood, preventive conservation, risk management

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50345 Interlinkages and Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile River

Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

Abstract:

Indian Ocean and the Nile River play significant roles in shaping the hydrological and ecological systems of the regions they traverse. This study explores the interlinkages and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile River, highlighting key factors such as water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity. The Indian Ocean serves as a major source of moisture for the Nile River, contributing to its annual flood cycle and sustaining the river's ecosystem. The Indian Ocean's monsoon winds influence the amount of rainfall received in East Africa, which directly impacts the Nile's water levels. These monsoonal patterns create a vital connection between the Indian Ocean and the Nile, affecting agricultural productivity, freshwater availability, and overall river health. The Indian Ocean also influences the nutrient levels in the Nile River. Coastal upwelling driven by oceanic currents brings nutrient-rich waters from the depths of the ocean to the surface. These nutrients are transported by ocean currents towards the Red Sea and subsequently enter the Nile. This influx of nutrients supports the growth of plankton, which forms the basis of the river's food web and sustains various aquatic species. Additionally, the Indian Ocean's climate patterns, such as El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events, exert influence on the Nile River basin. El Niño, for example, can result in drought conditions, reduced precipitation, and altered river flows, impacting agricultural activities and water resource management along the Nile. The Indian Ocean Dipole events can influence the rainfall distribution in East Africa, further impacting the Nile's water levels and ecosystem dynamics. The Indian Ocean's biodiversity is interconnected with the Nile River's ecological system. Many species that inhabit the Indian Ocean, such as migratory birds and marine mammals, migrate along the Nile River basin, utilizing its resources for feeding and breeding purposes. The health of the Indian Ocean's ecosystem thus indirectly affects the biodiversity and ecological balance of the Nile River. Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Nile River. Its influence on water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity highlights the complex interdependencies between these two important water bodies. Understanding the interconnectedness and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile is essential for effective water resource management and conservation efforts in the region.

Keywords: water, management, environment, planning

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50344 Analyzing Changes in Runoff Patterns Due to Urbanization Using SWAT Models

Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

Abstract:

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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