Search results for: nonlinear calculation

Authors: H. Tédjini, Y. Meslem, B. Guesbaoui, A. Safa

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Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) are potentially becoming more flexible and more economical local controllers in the power system; and because of the high MVA ratings, it would be expensive to provide independent, equal, regulated DC voltage sources to power the multilevel converters which are presently proposed for STATCOMs. DC voltage sources can be derived from the DC link capacitances which are charged by the rectified ac power. In this paper a new stronger control combined of nonlinear control based Lyapunov’s theorem and Ant Colony Algorithm (ACA) to maintain stability of multilevel STATCOM and the utility.

Keywords: Static Compensator (STATCOM), ant colony optimization (ACO), lyapunov control theory, Decoupled power control, neutral point clamped (NPC)

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Authors: Ke Zhang, Yongli Zhu

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Due to rapid load growths in today’s highly electrified societies and the requirement for green energy sources, large-scale wind farm power transmission system is constantly developing. This system is a typical multi-terminal power supply system, whose structure of the network topology of transmission lines is complex. What’s more, it locates in the complex terrain of mountains and grasslands, thus increasing the possibility of transmission line faults and finding the fault location with difficulty after the faults and resulting in an extremely serious phenomenon of abandoning the wind. In order to solve these problems, a fault location method for multi-terminal transmission line based on wind farm characteristics and improved single-ended traveling wave positioning method is proposed. Through studying the zero sequence current characteristics by using the characteristics of the grounding transformer(GT) in the existing large-scale wind farms, it is obtained that the criterion for judging the fault interval of the multi-terminal transmission line. When a ground short-circuit fault occurs, there is only zero sequence current on the path between GT and the fault point. Therefore, the interval where the fault point exists is obtained by determining the path of the zero sequence current. After determining the fault interval, The location of the short-circuit fault point is calculated by the traveling wave method. However, this article uses an improved traveling wave method. It makes the positioning accuracy more accurate by combining the single-ended traveling wave method with double-ended electrical data. What’s more, a method of calculating the traveling wave velocity is deduced according to the above improvements (it is the actual wave velocity in theory). The improvement of the traveling wave velocity calculation method further improves the positioning accuracy. Compared with the traditional positioning method, the average positioning error of this method is reduced by 30%.This method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional method in poor fault location of wind farm transmission lines. In addition, it is more accurate than the traditional fixed wave velocity method in the calculation of the traveling wave velocity. It can calculate the wave velocity in real time according to the scene and solve the traveling wave velocity can’t be updated with the environment and real-time update. The method is verified in PSCAD/EMTDC.

Keywords: grounding transformer, multi-terminal transmission line, short circuit fault location, traveling wave velocity, wind farm

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Authors: Samah Riache, Madjid Kidouche

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In this paper, we propose a nonlinear controller for Aerial Manipulator (AM) consists of a Quadrotor equipped with two degrees of freedom robotic arm. The kinematic and dynamic models were developed by considering the aerial manipulator as a coupled system. The proposed controller was designed using Nonsingular Terminal Sliding Mode Control. The objective of our approach is to improve performances and attenuate the chattering drawback using an adaptive algorithm in the discontinuous control part. Simulation results prove the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy compared with Sliding Mode Controller.

Keywords: adaptive algorithm, quadrotor, robotic arm, sliding mode control

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Authors: Mouhamed Mbouandi Njikam

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This work assesses the trade potential of countries in the Economic Community of Central Africa States (ECCAS). The gravity model of trade is used to evaluate the trade flows of member countries, and to compute the trade potential index of ECCAS during 1995-2010. The focus is on the removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers in the sub-region. Estimates from the gravity model are used for the calculation of the sub-region’s commercial potential. Its three main findings are: (i) the background research shows a low level of integration in the sub-region and open economies; (ii) a low level of industrialization and diversification are the main factors reducing trade potential in the sub-region; (iii) the trade creation predominate on the deflections of trade between member countries.

Keywords: gravity model, ECCAS, trade flows, trade potential, regional cooperation

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Authors: Mohamed El-Bady

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The Northern Egyptian Lagoons are (from east to west) Bardawil Lagoon, Manzala Lagoon, Burullus Lagoon, Edku Lagoons and Mariute Lagoon. These lagoons have been received the bulk of drainage water from the lands of Delta and from the other coastal areas. Where, the heavy metals can occur in Lagoons environments through a variety of sources, including industries, wastewaters and domestic effluents. The potential ecological risk index (RI) calculation of the bottom sediments of the northern lagoons depends on contamination factor (CF), potential ecological risk factor and proposed toxic response factor (Tr). Each lagoon with special indices according to its conditions.

Keywords: Northern Lagoons, Nile Delta, ecological risk index, contamination factor

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Authors: Jun Tian, Yu Yang, Liping Zhang, Qianhua Kan

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Experimental results show that SA 508-3 steel exhibits temperature dependent cyclic softening characteristic and obvious ratcheting behaviors, and dynamic strain age was observed at temperature range of 200 ºC to 350 ºC. Based on these observations, a temperature dependent cyclic plastic constitutive model was proposed by introducing the nonlinear cyclic softening and kinematic hardening rules, and the dynamic strain age was also considered into the constitutive model. Comparisons between experiments and simulations were carried out to validate the proposed model at elevated temperature.

Keywords: constitutive model, elevated temperature, ratcheting, SA 508-3

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Authors: Liqin Zhang, Liang Yan

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This paper addresses the speed synchronization control problem for a network-based multi-motor system from the perspective of cluster consensus theory. Each motor is considered as a single agent connected through fixed and undirected network. This paper presents an improved control protocol from three aspects. First, for the purpose of improving both tracking and synchronization performance, this paper presents a distributed leader-following method. The improved control protocol takes the importance of each motor’s speed into consideration, and all motors are divided into different groups according to speed weights. Specifically, by using control parameters optimization, the synchronization error and tracking error can be regulated and decoupled to some extent. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed strategy. In practical engineering, the simplified models are unrealistic, such as single-integrator and double-integrator. And previous algorithms require the acceleration information of the leader available to all followers if the leader has a varying velocity, which is also difficult to realize. Therefore, the method focuses on an observer-based variable structure algorithm for consensus tracking, which gets rid of the leader acceleration. The presented scheme optimizes synchronization performance, as well as provides satisfactory robustness. What’s more, the existing algorithms can obtain a stable synchronous system; however, the obtained stable system may encounter some disturbances that may destroy the synchronization. Focus on this challenging technological problem, a state-dependent-switching approach is introduced. In the presence of unmeasured angular speed and unknown failures, this paper investigates a distributed fault-tolerant consensus tracking algorithm for a group non-identical motors. The failures are modeled by nonlinear functions, and the sliding mode observer is designed to estimate the angular speed and nonlinear failures. The convergence and stability of the given multi-motor system are proved. Simulation results have shown that all followers asymptotically converge to a consistent state when one follower fails to follow the virtual leader during a large enough disturbance, which illustrates the good performance of synchronization control accuracy.

Keywords: consensus control, distributed follow, fault-tolerant control, multi-motor system, speed synchronization

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Authors: Kirill Trapezon, Alexandr Trapezon

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A problem is formulated for the natural oscillations of a circular plate of linearly variable thickness on the basis of the symmetry method. The equations of natural frequencies and forms for a plate are obtained, providing that it is rigidly fixed along the inner contour. The first three eigenfrequencies are calculated, and the eigenmodes of the oscillations of the acoustic element are constructed. An algorithm for applying the symmetry method and the factorization method for solving problems in the theory of oscillations for plates of variable thickness is shown. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated on the basis of comparison of known results and those obtained in the article. It is shown that the results are more accurate and reliable.

Keywords: vibrations, plate, method of symmetries, differential equation, factorization, approximation

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Authors: Rahele Mosleh

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This paper gives a survey of results on global stability of extended Ross model for malaria by constructing some elegant Lyapunov functions for two cases of epidemic, including disease-free and endemic occasions. The model is a nonlinear seven-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations that simulates this phenomenon in a more realistic fashion. We discuss the existence of positive disease-free and endemic equilibrium points of the model. It is stated that extended Ross model possesses invariant solutions for human and mosquito in a specific domain of the system.

Keywords: global stability, invariant solutions, Lyapunov function, stationary points

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Authors: G. M. Cappucci, C. Losi, P. Neri, M. Pini, A. M. Ferrari

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Waste treatment and many production processes cause significant emissions of odors, thus typically leading to intense debate. The introduction of odorimetric units and their units of measurement, i.e., U.O. / m3, with the European regulation UE 13725 of 2003 designates the dynamic olfactometry as the official method for odorimetric analysis. Italy has filled the pre-existing legislative gap on the regulation of odorous emissions only recently, by introducing the Legislative Decree n°183 in 2017. The concentration of the odor to which a perceptive response occurs to 50% of the panel corresponds to the odorimetric unit of the sample under examination (1 U.O. / m3) and is equal to the threshold of perceptibility of the substance (O.T.). In particular, the treatment of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) by Mechanical-Biological Treatment (MBT) plants produces odorous emissions, typically generated by aerobic procedures, potentially leading to significant environmental burdens. The quantification of odorous emissions represents a challenge within a LCA study since primary data are often missing. The aim of this study is to present the preliminary findings of an ongoing study whose aim is to identify and quantify odor emissions from the Tre Monti MBT plant, located in Imola (Bologna, Italy). Particularly, the issues faced with odor emissions in the present work are: i) the identification of the components of the gaseous mixture, whose total quantification in terms of odorimetric units is known, ii) the distribution of the total odorimetric units among the single substances identified and iii) the quantification of the mass emitted for each substance. The environmental analysis was carried out on the basis of the amount of emitted substance. The calculation method IMPact Assessment of Chemical Toxics (IMPACT) 2002+ has been modified since the original one does not take into account indoor emissions. Characterization factors were obtained by adopting a preliminary method in order to calculate indoor human effects. The impact and damage assessments were performed without the identification of new categories, thus in accordance with the categories of the selected calculation method. The results show that the damage associated to odorous emissions is the 0.24% of the total damage, and the most affected damage category is Human Health, mainly as a consequence of ammonia emission (86.06%). In conclusion, this preliminary approach allowed identifying and quantifying the substances responsible for the odour impact, in order to attribute them the relative damage on human health as well as ecosystem quality.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, municipal solid waste, odorous emissions, waste treatment

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Authors: Karim Adinehvand, Bakhtiar Azadbakht, Amin Sahebnasagh

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Relation to high absorption fraction of Tc SESTAMIBI by internal organs in heart scan, and these organs are near to generation organs (Ovaries and uterus). In this study, Liver is specified as source organ. Method: we have set amount of absorbed fraction radiopharmaceutical in position of Liver in RANDO-phantom in form of elliptical surfaces, then absorbed dose to ovaries and uterus measured by TLD-100 that had set at position of these organs in RANDO-phantom. Calculation had done by MIRD method. Results from direct measurement and MIRD method are too similar. The absorbed dose to uterus and ovaries for Rest are 26.05µGyMBq-1, 17.23µGyMBq-1 and for Stress are 2.04µGyMBq-1, 1.35µGyMBq-1 respectively.

Keywords: absorbed dose, TLD, MIRD, RANDO-phantom, Tc-99m

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Authors: Makhsud Bobojanov, Dauletbek Rismukhamedov, Furkat Tuychiev, Khusniddin Shamsutdionov

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The article presents the results of experimental study of a two-speed asynchronous motor 4A80B6/4U3 with pole-changing winding on a fan drive VSUN 160x74-0.55-4 in static and dynamic modes. A prototype of a pole-changing Motor was made based on the results of the calculation and the performance and mechanical characteristics of the Motor were removed at the experimental stand, as well as useful capacities and other parameters from both poles were determined. In dynamic mode, the curves of changes of torque and current of the stator were removed by direct start, constant speed operation, by switching of speeds and stopping.

Keywords: two speed motor, pole-changing motor, electric drive of fan, dynamic modes

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Authors: Najmeh Mohsenifar, Narjes Mohsenifar, Abbas Kargar

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In this paper, has been presented a stable method for predicting the ECG signals through the RBF neural networks, by the PSO algorithm. In spite of quasi-periodic ECG signal from a healthy person, there are distortions in electro cardiographic data for a patient. Therefore, there is no precise mathematical model for prediction. Here, we have exploited neural networks that are capable of complicated nonlinear mapping. Although the architecture and spread of RBF networks are usually selected through trial and error, the PSO algorithm has been used for choosing the best neural network. In this way, 2 second of a recorded ECG signal is employed to predict duration of 20 second in advance. Our simulations show that PSO algorithm can find the RBF neural network with minimum MSE and the accuracy of the predicted ECG signal is 97 %.

Keywords: electrocardiogram, RBF artificial neural network, PSO algorithm, predict, accuracy

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Authors: Pavana Basavakumar, Devadas Bhat

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Diabetes is a disease which often goes undiagnosed until its secondary effects are noticed. Early detection of the disease is necessary to avoid serious consequences which could lead to the death of the patient. Conventional invasive tests for screening of diabetes are mostly painful, time consuming and expensive. There’s also a risk of infection involved, therefore it is very essential to develop non-invasive methods to screen and estimate the level of blood glucose. Extensive research is going on with this perspective, involving various techniques that explore optical, electrical, chemical and thermal properties of the human body that directly or indirectly depend on the blood glucose concentration. Thus, non-invasive blood glucose monitoring has grown into a vast field of research. In this project, an attempt was made to device a prototype for screening of diabetes by measuring electrical impedance of the skin and building a model to predict a patient’s condition based on the measured impedance. The prototype developed, passes a negligible amount of constant current (0.5mA) across a subject’s index finger through tetra polar silver electrodes and measures output voltage across a wide range of frequencies (10 KHz – 4 MHz). The measured voltage is proportional to the impedance of the skin. The impedance was acquired in real-time for further analysis. Study was conducted on over 75 subjects with permission from the institutional ethics committee, along with impedance, subject’s blood glucose values were also noted, using conventional method. Nonlinear regression analysis was performed on the features extracted from the impedance data to obtain a model that predicts blood glucose values for a given set of features. When the predicted data was depicted on Clarke’s Error Grid, only 58% of the values predicted were clinically acceptable. Since the objective of the project was to screen diabetes and not actual estimation of blood glucose, the data was classified into three classes ‘NORMAL FASTING’,’NORMAL POSTPRANDIAL’ and ‘HIGH’ using linear Support Vector Machine (SVM). Classification accuracy obtained was 91.4%. The developed prototype was economical, fast and pain free. Thus, it can be used for mass screening of diabetes.

Keywords: Clarke’s error grid, electrical impedance of skin, linear SVM, nonlinear regression, non-invasive blood glucose monitoring, screening device for diabetes

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Authors: Csaba Tóth, Éva Lakatos, László Pethő, Seoyoung Cho

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The temperature effect on asphalt pavement structure is a crucial factor at the design stage. In this paper, by applying the German guidelines for temperature along the asphalt depth is estimated. The aim is to consider temperature profiles in different seasons in numerical modelling. The model is built with an elastic and isotropic solid element with 19 subdivisions of asphalt layers to reflect the temperature variation. Comparison with the simple three-layer pavement system (asphalt layers, base, and subgrade layers) will be followed to see the difference in result without temperature variation along with the depth. Finally, the fatigue life calculation was checked to prove the validity of the methodology of considering the temperature in the numerical modelling.

Keywords: temperature profile, flexible pavement modeling, finite element method, temperature modeling

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Authors: Shohreh Rahimi Lascokalayeh, Hasan Yousefnia, Mojtaba Tajik, Samaneh Zolghadri, Bentehoda Abdolhosseini

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In this study, the production of terbium-161 as new therapeutic radionuclide was investigated using TALYS1.6& EMPIRE 3.2 codes. For this purpose, cross section for the reactions reactor to produce 161Tb were extracted by mean of this code In the following step, stopping power of the reactions reactor was calculated by SRIM code. The best reaction in the production of 161Tb is160 Gd(d,n)161Tb Production yield of the 161Tb was obtained by utilization of MATLAB calculation code and based on the charged particle reaction formalism.The results showed that Production yield of the 161Tb was obtained 0.8 (mci/ A*h).

Keywords: terbium161, TALYS1.6, EMPIRE3.2, yield, cross-section

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Authors: S. Shahrooi, A. Talavari

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Numeral study on the crack and discontinuity using element-free methods has been widely spread in recent years. In this study, for stress intensity factor calculation of the cracked axis under torsional loading has been used from a new element-free method as MLPG method. Region range is discretized by some dispersed nodal points. From method of moving least square (MLS) utilized to create the functions using these nodal points. Then, results of meshless method and finite element method (FEM) were compared. The results is shown which the element-free method was of good accuracy.

Keywords: stress intensity factor, crack, torsional loading, meshless method

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Authors: Joon-Hoon Park

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In this paper the rationalized Haar transform is applied for distributed parameter system identification and estimation. A distributed parameter system is a dynamical and mathematical model described by a partial differential equation. And system identification concerns the problem of determining mathematical models from observed data. The Haar function has some disadvantages of calculation because it contains irrational numbers, for these reasons the rationalized Haar function that has only rational numbers. The algorithm adopted in this paper is based on the transform and operational matrix of the rationalized Haar function. This approach provides more convenient and efficient computational results.

Keywords: distributed parameter system, rationalized Haar transform, operational matrix, system identification

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Authors: Mohamed Mehdi Kadri

Abstract:

The prediction of hot shale interval in Silurian formation in a well drilled vertically in Ahnet basin Is by logging Data (Resistivity, Gamma Ray, Sonic) with the calculation of total organic carbon (TOC) using ∆ log R Method. The aim of this paper is to present Physico-chemical Properties of Hot Shale using IR spectroscopy and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis; this mixture of measurements, evaluation and characterization show that the hot shale interval located in the lower of Silurian, the molecules adsorbed at the surface of shale sheet are significantly different from petroleum hydrocarbons this result are also supported with gas-liquid chromatography showed that the study extract is a hydroxypropyl.

Keywords: physic-chemical analysis, reservoirs characterization, sweet window evaluation, Silurian shale, Ahnet basin

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Authors: Lev Idels, Arcady Ponosov

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Stochastic fractional differential equations have recently attracted considerable attention, as they have been used to model real-world processes, which are subject to natural memory effects and measurement uncertainties. Compared to conventional hereditary differential equations, one of the advantages of fractional differential equations is related to more realistic geometric properties of their trajectories that do not intersect in the phase space. In this report, a Peano-like existence theorem for nonlinear stochastic fractional differential equations is proven under very general hypotheses. Several specific classes of equations are checked to satisfy these hypotheses, including delay equations driven by the fractional Brownian motion, stochastic fractional neutral equations and many others.

Keywords: delay equations, operator methods, stochastic noise, weak solutions

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Authors: Y. Pala, M. O. Ertas

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In this paper, the general Riccati equation is analytically solved by a new transformation. By the method developed, looking at the transformed equation, whether or not an explicit solution can be obtained is readily determined. Since the present method does not require a proper solution for the general solution, it is especially suitable for equations whose proper solutions cannot be seen at first glance. Since the transformed second order linear equation obtained by the present transformation has the simplest form that it can have, it is immediately seen whether or not the original equation can be solved analytically. The present method is exemplified by several examples.

Keywords: Riccati equation, analytical solution, proper solution, nonlinear

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Authors: Bernice V. Y. Wong, Kong Fah Tee

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Cross-laminated timber is increasingly being used in the construction of high-rise buildings due to its simple manufacturing system. In term of fire resistance, cross-laminated timber panels are promoted as having excellent fire resistance, comparable to that of non-combustible materials and to heavy timber construction, due to the ability of thick wood assemblies to char slowly at a predictable rate while maintaining most of their strength during the fire exposure. This paper presents an overview of fire performance of cross-laminated timber and evaluation of its resistance to elevated temperature in comparison to homogeneous timber panels. Charring rates for cross-laminated timber panels of those obtained experimentally were compared with those provided by Eurocode simplified calculation methods.

Keywords: timber structure, cross-laminated timber, charring rate, timber fire resistance

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Authors: Sameh Frikha, Mohamed Salah Abid

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We investigate the performance of an integrated cascade (IC) refrigeration system which uses environment friendly zeotropic mixtures. Computational calculation has been carried out by varying pressure level at the evaporator and the condenser of the system. Effects of mass flow rate of the refrigerant on the coefficient of performance (COP) are presented. We show that the integrated cascade system produces ultra-low temperatures in the evaporator by using environment friendly zeotropic mixture.

Keywords: coefficient of performance, environment friendly zeotropic mixture, integrated cascade, ultra low temperature, vapor compression refrigeration cycles

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Authors: Abdel-Maksoud Abdel-Kader Soliman

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The General Regularized Long Wave (GRLW) equation is solved numerically by giving a new algorithm based on collocation method using quartic B-splines at the mid-knot points as element shape. Also, we use the Fourth Runge-Kutta method for solving the system of first order ordinary differential equations instead of finite difference method. Our test problems, including the migration and interaction of solitary waves, are used to validate the algorithm which is found to be accurate and efficient. The three invariants of the motion are evaluated to determine the conservation properties of the algorithm.

Keywords: generalized RLW equation, solitons, quartic b-spline, nonlinear partial differential equations, difference equations

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Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

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This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: fire, nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering

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Authors: Hisham M. Soliman, Hassan Yousef

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This manuscript presents new results on design saturated power system stabilizers (PSS) to assign system poles within a desired region for achieving good dynamic performance. The regional pole placement is accomplished against model uncertainties caused by different load conditions. The design is based on a sufficient condition in the form of linear matrix inequalities (LMI) which forces the saturated nonlinear controller to lie within the linear zone. The controller effectiveness is demonstrated on a single machine infinite bus system.

Keywords: power system stabilizer, saturated control, robust control, regional pole placement, linear matrix inequality (LMI)

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Authors: B. Sellami, Y. Laskri, M. Belloufi

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Conjugate gradient methods are an important class of methods for unconstrained optimization, especially for large-scale problems. Recently, they have been much studied. In this paper, a new family of conjugate gradient method is proposed for unconstrained optimization. This method includes the already existing two practical nonlinear conjugate gradient methods, which produces a descent search direction at every iteration and converges globally provided that the line search satisfies the Wolfe conditions. The numerical experiments are done to test the efficiency of the new method, which implies the new method is promising. In addition the methods related to this family are uniformly discussed.

Keywords: conjugate gradient method, global convergence, line search, unconstrained optimization

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Authors: Abdelhak Soudani

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Using the limit equilibrium method in geotechnical field is very important for large projects. This work contributes to the understanding and analysis of the building unstable slopes by the technique of soil nailed with the used of software called GEO-SLOPE calculation based on limit equilibrium method. To achieve our objective, we began a review of the literature on landslides, and techniques of slope stability. Then, we presented a real case slope likely to slip through the realization of the EastWest Highway (M5 stretch between Khemis Miliana and Hoceinia). We also process the application of reinforcement technique nailed soil. The analysis is followed by a parametric study, which shows the impact of parameters given or chosen on various outcomes. Another method of reinforcement (use of micro-piles) has been suggested for improving the stability of the slope

Keywords: slope stability, strengthening, slip, soil nail, GEO-SLOPE

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Authors: Mohamed Shawki Elamir, Heinrich Gotzig, Raoul Zoellner, Patrick Maeder

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In this work, a methodology is presented for identifying the optimal digitization parameters for the analog signal of ultrasonic sensors. These digitization parameters are the resolution of the analog to digital conversion and the sampling rate. This is accomplished through the derivation of characteristic curves based on Fano inequality and the calculation of the mutual information content over a given dataset. The mutual information is calculated between the examples in the dataset and the corresponding variation in the feature that needs to be estimated. The optimal parameters are identified in a manner that ensures optimal estimation performance while preventing inefficiency in using unnecessarily powerful analog to digital converters.

Keywords: analog to digital conversion, digitization, sampling rate, ultrasonic

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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