Search results for: long COVID

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Phillips–Perron (PP) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. All the variables in this study show very strong significant effects on GDP in the country for the long term. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests negative long-run causalities from consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil, coal and natural gas to GDP. Conversely, positive impacts of CO2 emissions and electricity consumption on GDP are found to be significant in Turkey during the period. There exists a short-run bidirectional relationship between electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. There exists a positive unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to natural gas consumption, while there exists a negative unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to electricity consumption. Moreover, GDP has a negative effect on electricity consumption in Turkey in the short run. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output but the associations can to be differed by the sources of energy in the case of Turkey over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Turkey, time series analysis

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Authors: Eman Hegazy, Stefan Anderberg, Joakim Krook

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Urban water infrastructure systems are central to functioning cities. For securing a continuous and efficient supply of the systems services, continuous investment, maintenance, and renewal are needed. Neglecting maintenance and renewal can lead to recurrent breakdown problems as systems age, which makes it more and more difficult to secure efficient long-term supply. Globally, many cities struggle with aging water infrastructure, often due to competing funding priorities. Investment in maintenance and renewal is not prioritized. The problem primarily stems from the challenge of reaping the benefits of investments promptly. The long-term benefits gained from investing in the renewal of water infrastructure may be achievable in the long run, resulting in the oversight of such investments. This leads to a build-up of "renewal debt" for future generations to inherit. Addressing this issue is difficult due to various contributing factors and the complex nature of the systems. The study aims to contribute to an increased understanding of the long-term management challenges of urban water infrastructure, the development of improved maintenance and renewal strategies through the examination of water infrastructure management, and the assessment of the adequacy of the maintenance and renewal in a case study, the city of Linköping, Sweden. Employing a multi-methods approach, this study utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods, including interviews, workshops, and data analysis. The findings of the study provided insights into the current status of the water and sewerage networks in Linkoping, highlighting the risks to ensuring reliable and sustainable water supply and discussing strategies for improving maintenance and renewal.

Keywords: case study, infrastructure management, renewal needs, Sweden, urban water infrastructure

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Authors: Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath, Shreya Pal

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Purpose: This study scrutinizes the impact of economic globalization on ecological footprint while endogenizing economic growth and energy consumption from 1990 to 2018 in India. Design/methodology/approach: The standard unit root test has been employed for time series analysis to unveil the integration order. Then, the cointegration was confirmed using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis. Further, the study executed the dynamic ARDL simulation model to estimate long-run and short-run results along with simulation and robotic prediction. Findings: The cointegration analysis confirms the existence of a long-run association among variables. Further, economic globalization reduces the ecological footprint in the long run. Similarly, energy consumption decreases the ecological footprint. In contrast, economic growth spurs the ecological footprint in India. Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature in many ways. First, unlike studies that employ CO2 emissions and globalization nexus, this study employs ecological footprint for measuring environmental quality; since it is the broader measure of environmental quality, it can offer a wide range of climate change mitigation policies for India. Second, the study executes a multivariate framework with updated series from 1990 to 2018 in India to explore the link between EF, economic globalization, energy consumption, and economic growth. Third, the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been used to explore the short and long-run association between the series. Finally, to our limited knowledge, this is the first study that uses economic globalization in the EF function of India amid facing a trade-off between sustainable economic growth and the environment in the era of globalization.

Keywords: economic globalization, ecological footprint, India, dynamic ARDL simulation model

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Authors: Okwan Frank

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Maternal health outcome is one of the major population development challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region has the highest maternal mortality ratio, despite the progressive economic growth in the region during the global economic crisis. It has been hypothesized that increase in economic growth will reduce the level of maternal mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of the negative relationship between health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used the Pooled Mean Group estimator of ARDL Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Kao test for cointegration to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between maternal mortality and economic growth. The results of the cointegration test showed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables considered for the study. The long-run result of the Pooled Mean group estimates confirmed the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between maternal health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth proxy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Thus increasing economic growth by investing in the health care systems to reduce pregnancy and childbirth complications will help reduce maternal mortality in the sub-region.

Keywords: economic growth, maternal mortality, pool mean group, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

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With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

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Authors: I. Martinez-Conesa, E. Garcia-Meca, M. Barradas-Quiroz

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The objective of this study is to assess the impact on earnings management of latest two Hofstede cultural dimensions: long-term orientation and indulgence. Long-term orientation represents the alignment of a society towards the future and indulgence expresses the extent to which a society exhibits willingness, or restrain, to realise their impulses. Additionally, this paper tests if there are relevant differences by testing the moderating role of the legal tradition, Continental versus Anglo-Saxon. Our sample comprises 15 countries: Belgium, Canada, Germany, Spain, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Philippines, Portugal, Sweden, and Thailand, with a total of 12,936 observations from 2003 to 2013. Our results show that managers in countries with high levels of long-term orientation reduce their levels of discretionary accruals. The findings do not confirm the effect of indulgence on earnings management. In addition, our results confirm previous literature regarding the effect of individualism, noting that firms in countries with high levels of collectivism might be more inclined to use earnings discretion to protect the welfare of the collective group of firm stakeholders. Uncertainty avoidance results in downwards earnings management as well as high disclosure, suggesting that less manipulation takes place when transparency is higher. Indulgence is the cultural dimension that confronts wellbeing versus survival; dimension is formulated including happiness, the perception of live control and the importance of leisure. Indulgence shows a weak negative correlation with power distance indicating a slight tendency for more hierarchical societies to be less indulgent. Anglo-Saxon countries are a positive effect of individualism and a negative effect of masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and disclosure. With respect to continental countries, we can see a significant and positive effect of individualism and a significant and negative effect of masculinity, long-term orientation, and indulgence. Therefore, we observe the negative effect on earnings management provoked by higher disclosure and uncertainty avoidance only happens in Anglo-Saxon countries. Meanwhile, the improvement in reporting quality motivated by higher long-term orientation and higher indulgence is dominant in Continental countries. Our results confirm that there is a moderating effect of the legal system in the association between culture and earnings management. This effect is especially relevant in the dimensions related to uncertainty avoidance, long term orientation, indulgence, and disclosure. The negative effect of long-term orientation on earnings management only happens in those countries set in continental legal systems because of the Anglo-Saxon legal systems is supported by the decisions of the courts and the traditions, so it already has long-term orientation. That does not occur in continental systems, depending mainly of contend of the law. Sensitivity analysis used with Jones modified CP model, Jones Standard model and Jones Standard CP model confirm the robustness of these results. This paper collaborates towards a better understanding on how earnings management, culture and legal systems relate to each other, and contribute to previous literature by examining the influence of the two latest Hofstede’s dimensions not previously studied in papers.

Keywords: Hofstede, long-term-orientation, earnings management, indulgence

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Authors: Umar Hayat, Shahid Ali, Lala Rukh

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Foreign aid is one of the critical variables that promote economic growth. This paper is an attempt to examine the long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth for Pakistan over the period of 1972 to 2021. This study uses Johnson's co-integration technique to investigate the long-run relationship among the variables in the model. For short-run dynamics, we utilized the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results strongly support the conventional view about aid-led growth. The analysis of the impact of aid on growth both at the micro and the macro levels generally gives different results. The result shows that in the short run inference of foreign aid under the nondemocratic form of government is significant negatively, while foreign aid does not affect economic growth in the case of democratic government.

Keywords: foreign aid, economic growth, political regimes, developing economy

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Authors: Andreas Hirseland, Lukas Kerschbaumer

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In Germany, during the past years there constantly are about one million long term unemployed who did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to regular employment, especially if accompanied by other impediments such as low level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. Almost two thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Hiring them is often considered as an investment too risky for employers. Therefore formal application schemes based on formal qualification certificates and vocational biographies might reduce employers’ risks but at the same time are not helpful for long-term unemployed and welfare recipients. The panel survey ‘Labor market and social security’ (PASS; ~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency), shows that their chance to get back to work tends to fall to nil. Only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions could be observed. In a sequential explanatory mixed-method study, the very scarce ‘success stories’ of unlikely transitions from long term unemployment to work were explored by qualitative inquiry – in-depth interviews with a focus on biography accompanied by qualitative network techniques in order to get a more detailed insight of relevant actors involved in the processes which promote the transition from being a welfare recipient to work. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation.

Keywords: against-all-odds, economic sociology, long-term unemployment, mixed-methods

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Authors: Yichen Lin, Hsiao-Han Chen, Chi-Chen Jan

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Since 1990, the research area of Integrated Marketing Communications (IMC) has been presented from a different perspective. With advances in information technology and the rise of consumer consciousness, businesses are in a competitive environment. There is an urgent need to adopt more profitable and effective integrated marketing strategies to increase core competitiveness. The goal of the company's sustainable management is to increase consumers' willingness to purchase and to maximize profits. This research uses six aspects of IMC, which includes awareness integration, unified image, database integration, customer-based integration, stakeholders-based integration, and evaluation integration to examine the role of marketing strategies in the strengths and weaknesses of the six components of integrated marketing communications, their effectiveness, the most important components and the most important components that need improvement. At the same time, social media such as FaceBook, Instagram, Youtube, Line, or even TikTok have become marketing tools which firms adopt them more and more frequently in the marketing strategy. In the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 did really affect the global industries. Lockdown policies also accelerated closure of brick-mentor stores worldwide. Online purchases rose dramatically. Hence, the effectiveness of online marketing will be essential to maintain the business. This study uses multiple-case studies to extend the effects of social media and IMC. Moreover, the study would also explore the differences of social media and IMC during COVID-19. Through literature review and multiple-case studies, it is found that using social media combined with IMC did really help companies expand their business and make good connections with stakeholders. One of previous studies also used system theory to explore the interrelationship among Integrated Marketing Communication, collaborative marketing, and global brand building. Even during pandemic, firms could still maintain the operation and connect with their customers more tightly.

Keywords: integration marketing communications, multiple-case studies, social media, system theory

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Authors: Hung-Chieh Chen, Kuo-Hui Wang, Tsu-Lin Yeh

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Proteomics represent the performance of genomic complement proteins and the protein level on functional genomics. This study adopted proteomic strategies for comparing serum proteins among three groups: elite sprinter (sprint runner group, SR), long-distance runners (long-distance runner group, LDR), and the untrained control group (control group, CON). Purposes: This study aims to identify elite sprinters and long-distance runners’ serum protein and to provide a comparison of their serum proteome’ composition. Methods: Serum protein fractionations that separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and analyzed by a quantitative nano-LC-MS/MS-based proteomic profiling. The one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Scheffe post hoc comparison (α= 0.05) was used to determine whether there is any significant difference in each protein level among the three groups. Results: (1) After analyzing the 307 identified proteins, there were 26 unique proteins in the SR group, and 18 unique proteins in the LDR group. (2) For the LDR group, 7 coagulation function-associated proteins’ expression levels were investigated: vitronectin, serum paraoxonase/arylesterase 1, fibulin-1, complement C3, vitamin K-dependent protein, inter-alpha-trypsin inhibitor heavy chain H3 and von Willebrand factor, and the findings show the seven coagulation function-associated proteins were significantly lower than the group of SR. (3) Comparing to the group of SR, this study found that the LDR group’s expression levels of the 2 antioxidant proteins (afamin and glutathione peroxidase 3) were also significantly lower. (4) The LDR group’s expression levels of seven immune function-related proteins (Ig gamma-3 chain C region, Ig lambda-like polypeptide 5, clusterin, complement C1s subcomponent, complement factor B, complement C4-A, complement C1q subcomponent subunit A) were also significantly lower than the group of SR. Conclusion: This study identified the potential serum protein markers for elite sprinters and long-distance runners. The changes in the regulation of coagulation, antioxidant, or immune function-specific proteins may also provide further clinical applications for these two different track athletes.

Keywords: biomarkers, coagulation, immune response, oxidative stress

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Authors: Pepur Sandra, Bulog Ivana, Rimac Smiljanić Ana

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, stress and family financial fragility arose worldwide. Economic and health uncertainty created new pressure on the everyday life of families. The work from home, homeschooling, and care of other family members caused an increase in unpaid work and generated a new division of intrahousehold. As many times before, women have taken the higher burden. This paper analyzes family stress and finance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose that women's inclusion in paid and unpaid work and their financial literacy influence family finances. We build up our assumptions according to the two theories that explain intrahousehold family decision-making: traditional and barging models. The traditional model assumes that partners specialize in their roles in line with time availability. Consequently, partners less engaged in payable working activities will spend more time on domestic activities and vice versa. According to the bargaining model, each individual has their preferences, and the one with more household bargaining power, e.g., higher income, higher level of education, better employment, or higher financial knowledge, is likely to make family decisions and avoid unpaid work. Our results are based on an anonymous and voluntary survey of 869 valid responses from women older than 18 conducted in Croatia at the beginning of 2021. We found that families who experienced delays in settling current obligations before the pandemic were in a worse financial situation during the pandemic. However, all families reported problems settling current obligations during pandemic times regardless of their financial condition before the crisis. Women from families with financial issues reported higher levels of family and personal stress during the pandemic. Furthermore, we provide evidence that more women's unpaid work negatively affects the family's financial fragility during the pandemic. In addition, in families where women have better financial literacy and are more financially independent, families cope better with finance before and during pandemics.

Keywords: family financial fragility, stress, unpaid work, women's financial literacy

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Authors: Ambuj Srivastava, Narender Singh

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This paper presents the effect of installation of cylindrical external store on the performance, stability, control and handling qualities of light transport category aircraft. A pair of long cylindrical store was installed symmetrically on either side of the fuselage (port and starboard) ahead of the wing and below the fuselage bottom surface running below pilot and co-pilot window. The cylindrical store was installed as hanging from aircraft surface through specially designed brackets. The adjoining structure was sufficiently reinforced for bearing aerodynamic loads. The length to diameter ratio of long cylindrical store was ~20. Based on academic studies and flow simulation analysis, a considerable detrimental effect on single engine second segment climb performance was found which was later validated through extensive flight testing exercise. The methodology of progressive flight envelope opening was adopted. The certification was sought from Regional airworthiness authorities and for according approval.

Keywords: second segment climb, maximum operating speed, cruise performance (single engine and twin engine), minimum control speed, and additional trim required

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Authors: Susan Ka Yee Chow

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The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) reached Hong Kong in 2019 resulting in epidemic in late January 2020. Considering the epidemic development, tertiary institutions made announcements that all on-campus classes were suspended since 01/29/2020. In Tung Wah College, e-learning was adopted in all courses for all programmes. For the undergraduate nursing students, the contact hours and curriculum are bounded by the Nursing Council of Hong Kong to ensure core competence after graduation. Unlike the usual e-learning where students are allowed having flexibility of time and place in their learning, real time learning mode using Blackboard was used to mimic the actual classroom learning environment. Students were required to attend classes according to the timetable using online platform. For lectures, voice over PowerPoint file was the initial step for mass lecturing. Real time lecture was then adopted to improve interactions between teacher and students. Post-lecture quizzes were developed to monitor the effectiveness of lecture delivery. The seminars and tutorials were conducted using real time mode where students were separated into small groups with interactive discussions with teacher within the group. Live time demonstrations were conducted during laboratory sessions. All teaching sessions were audio/video recorded for students’ referral. The assessments including seminar presentation and debate were retained. The learning mode creates an atmosphere for students to display the visual, audio and written works in a non-threatening atmosphere. Other students could comment using text or direct voice as they desired. Real time online learning is the pedagogy to replace classroom contacts in the emergent and unforeseeable circumstances. The learning pace and interaction between students and students with teacher are maintained. The learning mode has the advantage of creating an effective and beneficial learning experience.

Keywords: e-learning, nursing curriculum, real time mode, teaching and learning

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Authors: Abdul Wahid

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Inner speech, also known as verbal thinking, self-talk or private speech, is characterized by the subjective language experience in the absence of overt or audible speech. It is a psychological form of verbal activity which is being rehearsed without the articulation of any sound wave. In Psychology, self-limiting speech means the type of speech which contains information that inhibits the development of the self. People, in most cases, experience inner speech in their first language. It is very frequent in Bangladesh where the Bangla (L1) speaking students lose track of speech during their presentations in English (L2). This paper investigates into the long pauses (more than 0.4 seconds long) in English (L2) presentations by Bangla speaking students (18-21 year old) and finds the intervention of Bangla (L1) inner speech as one of its causes. The overt speeches of the presenters are placed on Audacity Audio Editing software where the length of pauses are measured in milliseconds. Varieties of inner speech questionnaire (VISQ) have been conducted randomly amongst the participants out of whom 20 were selected who have similar phenomenology of inner speech. They have been interviewed to describe the type and content of the voices that went on in their head during the long pauses. The qualitative interview data are then codified and converted into quantitative data. It was observed that in more than 80% cases students experience self-limiting inner speech/self-talk during their unwanted pauses in L2 presentations.

Keywords: Bangla-English Bilinguals, inner speech, L1 intervention in bilingualism, motor schema, pauses, phonological loop, phonological store, working memory

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Authors: Hiromi Kawasaki, Satoko Yamasaki, Mika Iwasa, Tomoko Iki, Akiko Takaki

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In basic nursing, the conditions necessary for maintaining human health -temperature, humidity, illumination, distance from others, noise, moisture, meals, and excretion- were explained. Nursing students often think of these conditions in the context of a hospital room. In order to make students think of these conditions in terms of an environment necessary for maintaining health and preventing illness for residents, in the third year of community health nursing, students learned how to assess and improve the environment -particularly via the case of shelters in the event of a disaster. The importance of environmental management has increased in 2020 as a preventive measure against COVID-19 infection. We verified the effect of the lessons, which was decided to be conducted through distance learning. Sixty third-year nursing college students consented to participate in this study. Environmental standard knowledge for conducting environmental assessment was examined before and after class, and the percentage of correct answers was compared. The χ² test was used for the test, with a 5% significance level employed. Measures were evaluated via a report submitted by the students after class. Student descriptions were analyzed both qualitatively and descriptively with respect to expected health problems and suggestions for improvement. Students have already learned about the environment in terms of basic nursing in their second year. The correct answers for external environmental values concerning interpersonal distance, illumination, noise, and room temperature (p < 0.001) increased significantly after taking the class. Humidity was registered 83.3% before class and 93.3% after class (p = 0.077). Regarding the body, the percentage of students who answered correctly was 70% or more, both before and after the class. The students’ reports included overcrowding, high humidity/high temperature, and the number of toilets as health hazards. Health disorders to be prevented were heat stroke, infectious diseases, and economy class syndrome; improvement methods were recommended for hyperventilation, stretching, hydration, and waiting at home. After the public health nursing class, the students were able to not only propose environmental management of a hospital room but also had an understanding of the environment in terms of the lives of individuals, environmental assessment, and solutions to health problems. The response rate for basic items learned in the second year was already high before and after class, and interpersonal distance and ventilation were described by students. Students were able to use what they learned in basic nursing about the standards of the human mind and body. In the external environment, the memory of specific numerical values was ambiguous. The environment of the hospital room is controlled, and interest in numerical values may decrease. Nursing staff needs to maintain and improve human health as well as hospital rooms. With COVID-19, it was thought that students would continue to not only consider this point in reference to hospital rooms but also in regard to places where people gather. Even in distance learning, students were able to learn the important issues and lessons.

Keywords: environmental assessment, evacuation center, nursing education, nursing students

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Authors: Nadia Sghaier

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In this paper, we aim to identify the determinants of the life and non-life insurance premiums of different lines for the case of the Tunisian insurance market over a recent period from 1997 to 2019. The empirical analysis is conducted using the linear cointegration techniques in the panel data framework, which allow both long and short-run relationships. The obtained results show evidence of long-run relationship between premiums, losses, and financial variables (stock market indices and interest rate). Furthermore, we find that the short-run effect of explanatory variables differs across lines. This finding has important implications for insurance tarification and regulation.

Keywords: insurance premiums, lines, Tunisian insurance market, cointegration approach in panel data

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Ying Shi, June Zhang, Lu Shao, Xiyan Xie, Aidi Lao, Zhangan Wang

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Background: Low levels of physical activity are associated with poorer health outcomes, and this situation is more critical in older adults living in long‐term care facilities. Objectives: To systematically identify, appraise, and synthesize current qualitative research evidence regarding the barriers and facilitators to physical activity as reported by older adults and care staff in long‐term care facilities. Design: This is a systematic review with qualitative evidence synthesis adhering to PRISMA guidelines. Methods: We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsychInfo databases from inception until 30 June 2023. Thematic synthesis was undertaken to identify the barriers and facilitators relating to physical activity. Then, we mapped them onto the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, and Behavior model and Theoretical Domains Framework. Methodological quality was assessed using the CASP Qualitative Studies Checklist, and confidence in review findings was assessed using the GRADE-CERQual approach. Results: We included 32 studies after screening 10496 citations and 177 full texts. Seven themes and 17 subthemes were identified relating to barriers and facilitators influencing physical activity in elderly residents. The main themes were mapped onto COM-B) model-Capability (physical activity knowledge gaps and individual health issues), Opportunity (social support and macro-level resources) and Motivation (health beliefs, fear of falling or injury, and personal and social incentives to physical activity). Most subthemes were graded as high (n = 9) or moderate (n = 3) confidence. Conclusions and Implications: Our comprehensive synthesis of 32 studies provides a wealth of knowledge of barriers and facilitators to physical activity from both residents and care staff’s perspectives. Intervention components were also suggested within the context of long‐term care facilities. End users such as older residents, care staff, and researchers can have confidence in our findings when formulating policies and guidance on promoting physical activity among elderly residents in long‐term care facilities.

Keywords: long‐term care, older adults, physical activity, qualitative, systematic review

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Authors: Chica Riska Ashari, Yoli Farradika

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Background: Nutritional problems arise due to food security problems in the family, such as the ability of families to obtain food which is common in poor people due to lack of economic access to buy food. For this reason, it is hoped that there will be actions or behaviors that can be taken to fulfill their food or known as the Food Coping Strategy. The purpose of this study is to identify the eating patterns and Food Coping strategies of household students of prof. DR. HAMKA Muhammadiyah University Jakarta during the covid-19 pandemic. Methods: This study is a quantitative observational study with a cross-sectional approach. The dependent variable in this study is food coping strategies and eating patterns. The location of this research is Prof. DR. Hamka Muhammadiyah University. The population in this study were all students of Prof. DR. HAMKA Muhammadiyah University. The sampling technique is purposive sampling. The minimum number of samples in this study is 97 people with a response rate or drop out an estimate of 10%, so the total number of samples was 107 people. Statistical analysis with descriptive analysis. Results: The results showed that most of the food coping strategies were carried out by the students of the household of Prof. DR. HAMKA Muhammadiyah University, were buying the cheaper food (91.6%), then changing the priority of buying food (75.7%) and household members who carry out this food coping strategy are mothers (59.8%) then followed by students themselves (57, 9%). The diet of most students at the Prof. DR. HAMKA Muhammadiyah University in a day was fond of consuming sugar and foods containing sugar (candy, sugar, honey, sweet drinks) (98.1%) then eggs (97.2%). Conclusion: Food coping strategies are mostly used by households students at Prof. DR. HAMKA Muhammadiyah University who were buying the cheaper food and the member who did this behavior the most were the mothers. The diet of most students at Prof. DR. HAMKA Muhammadiyah University in a day was fond of consuming sugar and foods containing sugar (candy, sugar, honey, sweet drinks).

Keywords: behavior, eating patterns, food coping strategies, food security, students

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Authors: Samaneh Abedini, Diana Urajnik, Nicole Naccarato

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A high prevalence of mental health problems was observed in marginalized youth living in underserved regions of Ontario during the COVID-19 pandemic. To address this issue, a growing number of community-based traditional mental health services are offering digital mental health resources due to their accessibility, affordability, and scalability. The feasibility of providing these resources in underserved regions has been examined by researchers rather than by representatives of effective services within a mental health system. Indeed, digitalized mental health contents are not routinely embedded within local mental health organizations' services in Northern Ontario, where they can make a substantial impact. To date, many technology-based mental health initiatives have not been effectively implemented in this region. The obstacles associated with implementing digitalized mental health resources in Northern Ontario may be unique to that region. Thus, specific context-based considerations might need to be applied for developing and implementing digital resources by regional mental health organizations in Northern Ontario. The target population was child-serving organizations situated in northeastern Ontario, specifically within Greater Sudbury and the Sudbury District. A sample of six organizations were selected with representation from the mental health, social, and healthcare sectors. The project supervisor was in a unique position to access the organizations by virtue of existing relationships with the practice and lay communities at large. Thus, recruitment was conducted through professional outreach in partnership with the Center for Rural and Northern Health Research (CRaNHR). Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 1-2 key personnel (e.g., administrator, clinician) from participating organizations. Audio recordings from the semi-structured interviews were transcribed verbatim and thematically analyzed supported by NVivo. Thematic analysis of the data resulted in a total of 13 excerpts which were categorized into two major themes including 1) digital mental health services as a valuable resource for organizations both during and after the pandemic, and 2) barriers and facilitators to a successful implementation of digital mental health resources in northern Ontario. Four secondary themes were identified: 1) perceived barriers to implementation of digital mental health resources to the offered services by mental health agencies; 2) acceptability and feasibility of digital health sources for people living in northern Ontario; 3) data security, safety, and risk; and 4) connecting with clients. The employees of mental health organizations in northern Ontario considered digital mental health resources as generally acceptable to youth. However, they raised several concerns that may affect their implementation into routine practice and service delivery. The implementation of digital systems should be simple and straightforward and should enhance rather than hinder clinical workflows for staff. A clear plan for implementing technological services is also required for the successful adoption of digital systems. For successful adoption and implementation of digital systems, staff views must be considered.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, digital mental health resources, Ontario, underserved

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Authors: A. Šapkauskienė, A. Mačerinskienė, R. Andrulienė, R. Bruzgė, S. Masteika, K. Driaunys

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The COVID-19 pandemic has affected not only world markets and economies but also the daily lives of customers and their payment habits. The pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation, so the role of technology will become even more important post-COVID. Although the popularity of cryptocurrencies has reached unprecedented heights, there are still obstacles, such as a lack of consumer experience and distrust of these technologies, so exploring the role of cryptocurrency and blockchain in the context of international travel becomes extremely important. Research on tourists’ intentions to use cryptocurrencies for payment purposes is limited due to the small number of research studies. To fill this research gap, an exploratory study based on the analysis of survey data was conducted. The purpose of the research is to explore how the behavior of tourists has changed making their financial transactions when paying for the tourism services in order to determine the intention to pay in cryptocurrencies. Behavioral intention can be examined as a dependent variable that is useful for the study of the acceptance of blockchain as cutting-edge technology. Therefore, this study examines the intention of travelers to use cryptocurrencies in electronic payments for tourism services. Several studies have shown that the intention to accept payments in a cryptocurrency is affected by the perceived usefulness of these payments and the perceived ease of use. The findings deepen our understanding of the readiness of service users to apply for blockchain-based payment in the tourism sector. The tourism industry has to focus not only on the technology but on consumers who can use cryptocurrencies, creating new possibilities and increasing business competitiveness. Based on research results, suggestions are made to guide future research on the use of cryptocurrencies by tourists in the tourism industry. Therefore, in line with the rapid expansion of virtual currency users, market capitalization, and payment in cryptographic currencies, it is necessary to explore the possibilities of implementing a blockchain-based system aiming to promote the use of services in the tourism sector as the most affected by the pandemic.

Keywords: behavioral intention, blockchain-based payment, cryptocurrency, tourism

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Authors: Chigozie Azunna, Botes Lucius

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Child homelessness remains a significant challenge in South Africa in the upcoming decade. Despite children making up a substantial portion of South Africa's population, the issue of child homelessness continues to pose a socio-economic crisis with diverse impacts. Achieving the UN 2050 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially in terms of equality and non-discrimination, requires an effective approach to curb child homelessness. Addressing this issue will positively influence the economic trajectory of South Africa's evolving demographic landscape. This research uses content analysis through an extensive review of current literature on child homelessness in South Africa. Findings indicate alignment between national policies and international agendas in tackling child homelessness in South Africa. However, the following statistics depict the ongoing challenge: In metropolitan areas, homelessness stands at 74.1%, whereas non-metro regions account for 25.9%. The City of Tshwane has the highest number of homeless individuals at 18.1%, followed by the City of Johannesburg at 15.6%, while Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan has the lowest at 2.7%. Despite existing national policy frameworks, child homelessness persists. The lack of accurate data, compounded by issues such as economic challenges, the lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty, the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and gaps in policy implementation, has exacerbated the problem. The consequences are dire, affecting children’s physical and emotional health, education, and future opportunities. The study recommends reinforcing actionable policies to address child homelessness effectively. Bridging the urban-rural divide and establishing intra-community networks are crucial for tackling this issue comprehensively. This includes addressing multifaceted challenges such as access to education, disease susceptibility, and the overall vulnerability of homeless children.

Keywords: South Africa, child, homeless, SDGs, COVID, urban, rural

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Authors: Yujiang Wu

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As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

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Authors: Asfa Hussain, Chee Tang, Mien Nguyen

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Introduction: The safe usage of medications is dependent on clear, well-documented prescribing. Medical drug charts should be regularly checked to ensure that they are fit for purpose. Aims: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the Isabel Hospice drug charts were effective or prone to medical errors. The aim was to create a comprehensive palliative care drug chart in line with medico-legal guidelines and to minimise drug administration and prescription errors. Methodology: 50 medical drug charts were audited from March to April 2020, to assess whether they complied with medico-legal guidelines, in a hospice within East of England. Meetings were held with the larger multi-disciplinary team (MDT), including the pharmacists, nursing staff and doctors, to raise awareness of the issue. A preliminary drug chart was created, using the input from the wider MDT. The chart was revised and trialled over 15 times, and each time feedback from the MDT was incorporated into the subsequent template. In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic in September 2020, the finalised drug chart was trialled. 50 new palliative drug charts were re-audited, to evaluate the changes made. Results: Prescribing and administration errors were high prior to the implementation of the new chart. This improved significantly after introducing the new drug charts, therefore improving patient safety and care. The percentage of inadequately documented allergies went down from 66% to 20% and incorrect oxygen prescription from 40% to 16%. The prescription drug-drug interactions decreased by 30%. Conclusion: It is vital to have clear standardised drug charts, in line with medico-legal standards, to allow ease of prescription and administration of medications and ensure optimum patient-centred care. This closed loop audit demonstrated significant improvement in documentation and prevention of possible fatal drug errors and interactions.

Keywords: palliative care, drug chart, medication errors, drug-drug interactions, COVID-19, patient safety

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Authors: Himayatullah Khan

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This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Resham Badri

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Cities today are unable to justify equitable distribution of theirsocio- economic and infrastructural benefits to the marginalized urban poor, and the emergence of a pressing pandemic like COVID-19 has amplified its impact. Lack of identity, vulnerability, and inaccessibility contribute to exclusion. Owing to systemic gaps in institutional processes, urban development policiesfail to represent and cater to the urban poor. This paper aims to be a roadmap for the Indian Government to understand the significance of the designation of a navigable spatial identity to slum dwellers in the form of a digital address, which can form the fundamental basis of identification to enable accessibility to not only basic servicesbut also other utilities. Capitalizing on such a granular and technology backed approach shall allow to target and reach out to the urban poor strategically andaid effective urban governance. This paper adopts a three-pronged approach;(i) Policy analysis- understanding gaps in existing urban policies of India, such as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Swachh Bharat Mission, and Adhaar Card policy, (ii) Program Evaluation- analyzing a case study, where slum dwellers in Kolhapur city in India have been provided with navigable addresses using Google Plus Codes and have gained access to basic services, vaccinations, and other emergency deliveries in COVID-19 times, (iii) Policy recommendation. This designation of a navigable spatial identity has tremendous potential to form the foundation on which policies can further base their data collection and service delivery processes to not only provide basic services but also other infrastructural and social welfare initiatives. Hence, a massive window of opportunity lies in addressing the unaddressed to elevate their living standards and respond to their basic needs.

Keywords: policy analysis, urban poor, navigable spatial identity, accessibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Nulu Nanono

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Background: The Ugandan national health policy and the national population policy all recognize the need to increase access to quality, affordable, acceptable and sustainable contraceptive services for all people but provision and utilization of quality services remains low. Two contraceptive methods are categorized as long-acting temporary methods: intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCDs) and implants. Copper-containing IUCDs, generally available in Ministry of Health (MoH) family planning programs and is effective for at least 12 years while Implants, depending on the type, last for up to three to seven years. Uganda’s current policy and political environment are favorable towards achieving national access to quality and safe contraceptives for all people as evidenced by increasing government commitments and innovative family planning programs. Despite the increase of modern contraception use from 14% to 26%, long acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) utilization has relatively remained low with less than 5% using IUDs & Implants which in a way explains Uganda’s persistent high fertility rates. Main question/hypothesis: The purpose of the study was to examine relationship between the demographic, socio-economic characteristics of women, health facility factors and long acting reversible contraception utilization. Methodology: LARC utilization was investigated comprising of the two questions namely are you or your partner currently doing something or using any method to delay or avoid getting pregnant? And which method or methods are you using? Data for the study was sourced from the 2016 Uganda Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 Survey comprising of 3816 female respondents aged 15 to 49 years. The analysis was done using the Chi-squared tests and the probit regression at bivariate and multivariate levels respectively. The model was further tested for validity and normality of the residuals using the Sharipo wilks test and test for kurtosis and skewness. Results: The results showed the model the age, parity, marital status, region, knowledge of LARCs, availability of LARCs to be significantly associated with long acting contraceptive utilization with p value of less than 0.05. At the multivariate analysis level, women who had higher parities (0.000) tertiary education (0.013), no knowledge about LARCs (0.006) increases their probability of using LARCs. Furthermore while women age 45-49, those who live in the eastern region reduces their probability of using LARCs. Knowledge contribution: The findings of this study join the debate of prior research in this field and add to the body of knowledge related to long acting reversible contraception. An outstanding and queer finding from the study is the non-utilization of LARCs by women who are aware and have knowledge about them, this may be an opportunity for further research to investigate the attribution to this.

Keywords: contraception, long acting, utilization, women (15-49)

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Authors: Eric Agyekum, Dominic Asitanga

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Ghana is widely considered asa beacon of democracy in sub-Saharan Africa. With a relatively free media, the country was ranked30thin the world and third in Africaon the 2021 Press Freedom Index. Despite the democratic gains, itis one of the most politically polarized nations in the world. Ghana’spolitical division is evident in the current hunglegislature, where each of the two dominant political parties has 137 members, with an independent member occupying the remaining one seat. Misinformation and fake newsthrive in systems with acuteideological and political differences(Imelda et al, 2021; Azzimonti&Fernandes, 2018; Spohr, 2017) and Ghana is no exception. The information disorder problem has been exacerbatedby the COVID-19 pandemic, with its attendant conspiracy theories and speculations, making it difficult for the media and fact-checking organizations to verifyall claims and flag false information. In Ghana, fact-checking agencies like Ghana Fact, Dubawa Ghana, and some mainstream news media organizations have been fact-checking political claims, COVID-19 conspiracy theories, and many others. However, it is not clear if the audience consumeand attach prominence to these fact-checked stories or even visit the websites of the fact-checking agencies to read the content. Nekmat (2020) opine that though the literature on fact-checking suggest that fact-checked stories can alter readers’ beliefs, very few studies have investigated the patronage and the potential of fact-checks to deter users from sharing false news with others, particularly on social media. In response to Nekmat, this study has been initiated to examine the perception and attitude of the audience in Ghana towards fact-checks. Anchored on the principles of the nudge theory, this study will investigate how fact-checked stories alters readers’ behavioural patterns. A survey will be conducted to collect data from sampled members of the Ghanaian society.

Keywords: fact-checking, information disorder, nudge theory, political polarization

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Authors: Puneet Goyal, Aarti Agarwal

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Background and Objective: Nutritional support is an integral part of palliative care of advanced non-resectable abdominal malignancy patients, though is frequently neglected aspect. Non-Healing high output Entero-cutaneous fistulas sometimes require long term parenteral nutrition, to take care of catabolism and replacement of nutrients. We present a case of inoperable pancreatic malignancy with high output entero-cutaneous fistula, which was provided parenteral nutritional support with the use of Totally Implantable Venous Access Device (TIVAD). Method and Results: 55 year old man diagnosed with carcinoma pancreas had developed high entero-cutaneous fistula. His tumor was found to be inoperable and was on total parenteral nutrition through routine central line. This line was difficult to maintain as he required it for a long term TPN. He was planned to undergo Totally Implantable Venous Access Device (TIVAD) implantation. 8Fr single lumen catheter with Groshong non-return Valve (Bard Access Systems, Inc. USA) was inserted through right internal jugular vein, under fluoroscopic guidance. The catheter was tunneled subcutaneously and brought towards infraclavicular pocket, cut at appropriate length and connected to port and locked. Port was sutured in floor of pocket. Free flow of blood aspirated, flushed with heparinized saline. There was no kink observed in entire length of catheter under fluoroscopy. Skin over infraclavicular pocket was sutured. Long term catheter care and associated risks were explained to patient and relatives. Patient continued to receive total parenteral nutrition as well as other supportive therapy though TIVAD for next 6 weeks, till his demise. Conclusion: TIVADs are standard of care for long term venous access solutions in cancer patients requiring chemotherapy. In this case, we extended its use for providing parenteral nutrition and other supportive therapy. TIVADs can be implanted in advanced cancer patients for providing venous access solution required for various palliative treatments and medications. This will help in improving quality of life and satisfaction amongst terminally ill cancer patients.

Keywords: parenteral nutrition, totally implantable venous access device, long term venous access, interventions in anesthesiology

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Joseph E. Estevez, Mahdi Ghazizadeh, James G. Ryan, Ajit D. Kelkar

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Radiation shielding is an obstacle in long duration space exploration. Boron Nitride Nanotubes (BNNTs) have attracted attention as an additive to radiation shielding material due to B10’s large neutron capture cross section. The B10 has an effective neutron capture cross section suitable for low energy neutrons ranging from 10-5 to 104 eV and hydrogen is effective at slowing down high energy neutrons. Hydrogenated BNNTs are potentially an ideal nanofiller for radiation shielding composites. We use Molecular Dynamics (MD) Simulation via Material Studios Accelrys 6.0 to model the Young’s Modulus of Hydrogenated BNNTs. An extrapolation technique was employed to determine the Young’s Modulus due to the deformation of the nanostructure at its theoretical density. A linear regression was used to extrapolate the data to the theoretical density of 2.62g/cm3. Simulation data shows that the hydrogenated BNNTs will experience a 11% decrease in the Young’s Modulus for (6,6) BNNTs and 8.5% decrease for (8,8) BNNTs compared to non-hydrogenated BNNT’s. Hydrogenated BNNTs are a viable option as a nanofiller for radiation shielding nanocomposite materials for long range and long duration space exploration.

Keywords: boron nitride nanotube, radiation shielding, young modulus, atomistic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 297