Search results for: excessive rainfall

Authors: Sara Hasani

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This research focuses on natural sudden onset disasters characterised as ‘occurring with little or no warning and often cause excessive injuries far surpassing the national response capacities’. Based on the panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2015, a predictive method was developed to predict the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with less than 3% of errors. The geographical dispersion of the disasters includes every country where the data were available and cross-examined from various humanitarian sources. The records were then filtered into 4252 records of the disasters where the five predictive variables (disaster type, HDI, DRI, population, and population density) were clearly stated. The procedure was designed based on a combination of pattern recognition techniques and rule-based clustering for prediction and discrimination analysis to validate the results further. The result indicates that there is a relationship between the disaster human impact and the five socio-economic characteristics of the affected country mentioned above. As a result, a framework was put forward, which could predict the disaster’s human impact based on their severity rank in the early hours of disaster strike. The predictions in this model were outlined in two worst and best-case scenarios, which respectively inform the lower range and higher range of the prediction. A necessity to develop the predictive framework can be highlighted by noticing that despite the existing research in literature, a framework for predicting the human impact and estimating the needs at the time of the disaster is yet to be developed. This can further be used to allocate the resources at the response phase of the disaster where the data is scarce.

Keywords: disaster management, natural disaster, pattern recognition, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Fitri Ayu, Nadia, Tanti, Putri, Fatkhan, Pasid Harlisa, Suparmi

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Acne is a skin abnormal conditions experienced by many teens, this is caused by various factors such as the climate is hot, humid and excessive sun exposure can aggravate acne because it will lead to excess oil production. Flavonoids form complex compounds against extracellular proteins that disrupt the integrity of bacterial cell membrane in a way denature bacterial cell proteins and bacterial cell membrane damage. This study aimed to test the antibacterial activity of corn silk extract with a concentration of 10 %, 20 %, 30 %, 40 %, 50 %, 60 %, 70 %, 80 %, 90 % and 100 % in vitro by measuring the inhibition of the growth of bacteria Propionibacterium acne, Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus epidermis then compared with the standard antibiotic clindamycin. Extracts tested by Disk Diffusion Method, in which the blank disc soaked with their respective corn silk extract concentration for 15-30 minutes and then the medium of bacteria that have been planted with Propionibacterium acne, Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus epidermis in the given disk that already contains extracts with various concentration. Incubated for 24 hours and then measured the growth inhibition zone Propionibacterium acne, Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus epidermidis. Corn silk contains flavonoids, is shown by the test of flavonoids in corn silk extract by using a tube heating and without heating. Flavonoid in corn silk potentially as anti acne by inhibiting the growth of bacteria that cause acne. Corn silk extract concentration which has the highest antibacterial activity is then performed in a cream formulation and evaluation test of physical and chemical properties of the resulting cream preparation.

Keywords: antibacterial, flavonoid, corn silk, acne

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Abdallah Abu Madi, Dongmei Cao, Alexeis Garcia-Perez, Qile He

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The failure of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) implementation in higher education institutions (HEIs) worldwide is much higher in comparison to other sectors, such as banking or manufacturing, to our knowledge limited research has been conducted on this issue. To date, prior literature has identified some key success factors (KSFs) mostly either in the domain of information and system (IS) or in the industrial context. However, evidence of ERP implementation in the higher education sector has had little attention in the extant literature. Hence, this paper identifies and categories KSFs of ERP implementation in HEIs. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with technicians and managers from three Jordanian HEIs. From these case studies, three new sector- and context-specific KSFs were identified and categorized according to two dimensions: organizational and technical. The first new KSF is the selection of the ERP system, which is an influential factor in the organizational dimension. Results show that an ERP solution that is suitable to one context may be disastrous in another. The second new KSF, which falls under the technical dimension, is the relationship between vendors and HEIs. This must be fair and impartial to enable successful decision-making and thus the achievement of pre-defined goals. Also within the technical dimension is the third factor: in-house maintenance. Once an appropriate system is selected and a strong relationship is established, the ERP system requires continuous maintenance for effective operation. HEIs should ensure that qualified IT support is in place and in-house to avoid excessive running expenses.

Keywords: Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)implementation, key success factors, higher education institutions, Jordanian higher education

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Authors: Franklin Nantui Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

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Rice yields among agro-ecological zones are heterogeneous. Farmers, researchers and policy makers are making frantic efforts to bridge rice yield gaps between agro-ecological zones through the promotion of improved agricultural technologies (IATs). Farmers are also modifying these IATs and blending them with indigenous farming practices (IFPs) to form farmer innovation systems (FISs). Also, different metafrontier models have been used in estimating productivity performances and their drivers. This study used the two-step stochastic metafrontier model to estimate the productivity performances of rice farmers and their determining factors in GSZ, FSTZ and CSZ. The study used both primary and secondary data. Farmers in CSZ are the most technically efficient. Technical inefficiencies of farmers are negatively influenced by age, sex, household size, education years, extension visits, contract farming, access to improved seeds, access to irrigation, high rainfall amount, less lodging of rice, and well-coordinated and synergized adoption of technologies. Albeit farmers in CSZ are doing well in terms of rice yield, they still have the highest potential of increasing rice yield since they had the lowest TGR. It is recommended that government through the ministry of food and agriculture, development partners and individual private companies promote the adoption of IATs as well as educate farmers on how to coordinate and synergize the adoption of the whole package. Contract farming concept and agricultural extension intensification should be vigorously pursued to the latter.

Keywords: efficiency, farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, two-step stochastic metafrontier approach

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Authors: Icy Vinod Sanghvi

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In the light of rising modernism within the residential design industry, a significant growth of the western concepts of maximalism or minimalism is observed in the Indian housings. Although dynamism in design styles is natural due to the constant emergence of new innovations, it is imperative that local houses reflect cultural identity. This paper highlights the importance of ‘Indian Modernism’, and how to incorporate the same in residential design. Thus, helping the Indian culture to flourish and become a significant part of housing design in the future. A literature review was conducted to analyze and derive effective methods to build cultural value whilst catering to the urban and contemporary design industry. Alongside, a questionnaire survey was conducted to observe how the local houses are designed and to understand the preferences of people with regards to the design styles incorporated in their homes. In addition, their opinions on the excessive use of contemporary styles in home designs was recorded. The results of the same provided a better understanding of the local audience, their demands, and their willingness to adapt to contemporary designs. Studying color, materials, ornamentation, symbolism, detail, and structure offers an in-depth understanding of the essence of traditional Indian homes. These variables further provided effective solutions for design ideation and mockups for efficient traditional yet contemporary spaces. Design interventions like these can build a revolutionary set of practices that involve creating a balance between contemporary and traditional styles. The emergence of this synergy will not only make contemporary homes communicative but also allow India to compete within the global residential architecture industry with a strong foundation of its rich heritage.

Keywords: balance, contemporary design, cultural identity, Indian modernism

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Singh, Debashish Chakravarty

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Slope stability analysis is an important aspect in the field of geotechnical engineering. It is also important from safety, and economic point of view as any slope failure leads to loss of valuable lives and damage to property worth millions. This paper aims at mitigating the risk of slope failure by studying the effect of different joint sets on the stability of mine pit slopes under the influence of various external factors, namely degree of saturation, rainfall intensity, and seismic coefficients. Supervised machine learning approach has been utilized for making accurate and reliable predictions regarding the stability of slopes based on the value of Factor of Safety. Numerous cases have been studied for analyzing the stability of slopes using the popular Finite Element Method, and the data thus obtained has been used as training data for the supervised machine learning models. The input data has been trained on different supervised machine learning models, namely Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support vector Machine, and XGBoost. Distinct test data that is not present in training data has been used for measuring the performance and accuracy of different models. Although all models have performed well on the test dataset but Random Forest stands out from others due to its high accuracy of greater than 95%, thus helping us by providing a valuable tool at our disposition which is neither computationally expensive nor time consuming and in good accordance with the numerical analysis result.

Keywords: finite element method, geotechnical engineering, machine learning, slope stability

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Authors: Aqsa Butt, Nida Zafar

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The study assesses the relationship between impulsivity, emotional regulation, problematic mukbang watching, and eating disorders in university students. It was hypothesized there is likely to be a relationship between impulsivity, emotional regulation, problematic mukbang watching, and eating disorders in university students; impulsivity and emotional regulation would predict problematic mukbang watching in university students; problematic mukbang watching would predict eating disorders in university students. A correlational research design was used. A sample of 200 students was taken from different public and private universities in Lahore. Emotional regulation questionnaire (Gross & John, 2003), Abbreviated Barrat Impulsiveness Scale (Christopher et al., 2014), Problematic Mukbang Watching Scale (Kircaburun et al., 2020), and Eating Disorder Diagnostic Scale (Stice et al., 2004) were used for assessment. Results showed a significant positive relationship between impulsivity and expressive suppression with problematic mukbang watching. However, there is a significant negative relationship between cognitive reappraisal and problematic mukbang watching. Problematic mukbang is significantly positively related to bulimia nervosa and binge eating. Furthermore, impulsivity and expressive suppression are significant positive predictors of problematic mukbang watching, and cognitive reappraisal is a significant negative predictor of problematic mukbang watching. Additionally, problematic mukbang watching significantly positively predicts bulimia nervosa and binge eating. The research has important implications for university students to understand that excessive watching of such videos can lead to eating disorders such as bulimia nervosa and binge eating. This research provides an understanding of the effects of Mukbang watching, and it also adds to the existing body of knowledge on eating disorders.

Keywords: impulsivity, emotional regulation, problematic Mukbang watching eating disorders, students

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Authors: Mustafa Salman, Nurcan Cetinkaya, Zehra Selcuk, Bugra Genc

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The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P<0.001) were found among months for purine derivatives index, purine derivatives excretion, purine derivatives absorption, microbial-N and DOMI. Through urine sampling and the determination of levels of excreted urinary PD and Purine Derivatives / Creatinine ratio (PDC index), microbial-N values were estimated and they indicated that the protein nutrition of the sheep was insufficient. In conclusion, the prediction of protein nutrition of sheep under the field conditions may be possible with the use of spot urine sampling, urinary excreted PD and PDC index. The mean purine derivative levels in spot urine samples from sheep were highest in June, July and October. Protein nutrition of pastured sheep may be affected by weather changes, including rainfall. Spot urine sampling may useful in modeling the feed consumption of pasturing sheep. However, further studies are required under different field conditions with different breeds of sheep to develop spot urine sampling as a model.

Keywords: Karayaka sheep, spot sampling, urinary purine derivatives, PDC index, microbial-N, feed intake

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Authors: Okpu Enoh Ndip Nkongho

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The type of political leadership in place impacts a state's economic development or underdevelopment directly and indirectly. One of the main challenges to Cameroon's economic development may be ineffective or misguided political leadership. The economy of the Cameroon state has declined significantly due to a number of factors, including a lack of effective and feasible economic policies, a reliance on crude oil that is excessive, tribal politics, the threat of insurgency, bribery, and corruption, violations of human rights, neglect of other sectors like science, technology, education, and transportation, and a careless attitude on the part of the administrators toward the general public. As a result, the standard of living has decreased, foreign exchange has decreased, and the value of the Cameroonian currency has depreciated. Therefore, from 2000 to 2023, this paper focused on the relationship between political leadership and economic development in Cameroon and offered suggestions for improving political leadership that will, in turn, lead to the country's economy getting back on track. The study employed a qualitative technique, with the framework for the investigation derived from the trait theory of leadership. According to the information provided above, the paper was able to conclude that there is a lack of cooperation between the three branches of government in Cameroon. This is shown in situations when one branch operates independently of the others and refuses to function as a backup when needed. The study recommended that the Executive collaborate closely with the National Assembly to speed action on some key legislation required to stimulate economic development. On the other hand, there is a need for more clarity and consistency in the government's policy orientation. There is no doubt that our current economic troubles are at least partially the result of a lack of economic policy leadership and confidence.

Keywords: politics, leadership, economic, development, Cameroon

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Authors: Muhammad Idnan, Arshad Javid, Muhammad Nadeem

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The present study was conducted from April 2013 to March 2014 to observe the behavioral parameters of Chinkara (Gazella bennettii) under captive conditions by comparing the captive-born and wild-caught animals for conservation strategies. Understanding the behavioral conformations plays a significant role in captive management. Due to human population explosion and mechanized hunting, the captive breeding seems to be the best way for sports hunting, bush meat, for leather industry and horns for traditional medicinal usage. Primarily, captive management has been used on trial and error basis due to deficiency of ethology of this least concerned species. Behavior of [(20 wild-caught (WC) and 10 captive-bred (CB)] adult Chinkara was observed at captive breeding facilities for ungulates at Ravi Campus, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences at Kasur district which is situated on southeast side of Lahore. The average annual rainfall is about 650 mm, with frequent raining during monsoon. A focal sample was used to observe the various behavioral patterns for CB and WC chinkara. A similarity was observed in behavioral parameters in WC and CB animals, however, when the differences were considered, WC male deer showed a significantly higher degree of agonistic interaction as compared to the CB male chinkara. These findings suggest that there is no immediate impact of captivity on behavior of chinkara nevertheless 10 generations of captivity. It is suggested that the Chinkara is not suitable for domestication and for successful deer farming, a further study is recommended for ethology of chinkara.

Keywords: Chinkara (Gazella bennettii), domestication, deer farming, ex-situ conservation

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Authors: Subbarao Pichuka, Amar Balakrishna Tej, Vikas Vemula

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In recent years, the frequency and intensity of urban floods have increased due to climate change all over the world provoking a significant loss in terms of human lives and property. This study investigates the effect of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes and population growth on the urban environmental conditions in the Indian metropolitan city namely Hyderabad. The centennial built-up area data have been downloaded from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) web portal for various periods (1975 to 2014). The ArcGIS version 10.8 software is employed to convert the GHSL data into shape files and also to calculate the amount of built-up area in the study locations. The decadal population data are obtained from the Census from 1971 to 2011 and forecasted for the required years (1975 and 2014) utilizing the Geometric Increase Method. Next, the analysis has been carried out with respect to the increase in population and the corresponding rise in the built-up area. Further the effects of extreme rainfall events, which exacerbate urban flooding have also been reviewed. Results demonstrate that the population growth was the primary cause of the increase in impervious surfaces in the urban regions. It in turn leads to the intensification of surface runoff and thereby leads to Urban flooding. The built-up area has been doubled from 1975 to 2014 and the population growth has been observed between 109.24% to 400% for the past four decades (1971 to 2014) in the study area (Hyderabad). Overall, this study provides the hindsight on the current urban flooding scenarios, and the findings of this study can be used in the future planning of cities.

Keywords: urban LULC change, urban flooding, GHSL built-up data, climate change, ArcGIS

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Authors: Moujib Bahri, Ouafa Sakka, Kallel Rahim

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This study builds on the literature about the effects of corruption on economic growth at the firm level, which analyzes how the payment of bribes affect organizational performance. Traditionally, the literature distinguishes two points of view regarding the impact of corruption: grease view and sand view. The grease view is based on the idea that corruption can compensate for the negative effect of red tape on firms’ activities such as innovation and exports. Therefore, some firms will be motivated to pay some additional money to officials in order to reduce the delay related to bureaucratic procedures. On the contrary, the second point of view considers that corruption sands the wheels of the economy and distorts resource allocation because it increases agency and transaction costs and reduces the returns on the investment. We have tested the effect of corruption on innovation and export activities on a sample of 537 Tunisian manufacturing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) using structural equation modeling and path analysis. Tunisia has undergone a revolution in 2010 and since then, the country is experiencing a political instability and economic hardships. Our results do not support the greasing hypothesis suggesting that corruption can reduce the negative effect of bureaucratic delays and the hard access of companies to public services related to exports. Instead, our results support the sanding hypothesis according to which corruption hinders SMEs’ exports through its negative influence on innovation. Furthermore, our results show that the interaction between excessive bureaucratic red tape and corruption has a negative effect on exports. However, the interaction between political instability and corruption increases exports.

Keywords: corruption, exports, SMEs, economic conditions

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Authors: Kawalpreet Kaur, Panagiotis Mitropoulos

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The division of the project scope into work packages is the most important step in the preconstruction phase of construction projects. The work division determines the scope and complexity of each bid package, resulting in dependencies between project participants performing these work packages. The coordination between project participants is necessary because of these dependencies. Excessive dependencies between the bid packages create coordination difficulties, leading to delays, added costs, and contractual friction among project participants. However, the literature on construction provides limited knowledge regarding work structuring approaches, issues, and challenges. Manufacturing industry literature provides a systematic approach to defining the project scope into work packages, and the implementation of social network analysis (SNA) in manufacturing is an effective approach to defining and analyzing the divided scope of work at the dependencies level. This paper presents a case study of implementing a similar approach using SNA in construction bid packages. The study uses SNA to analyze the scope of bid packages and determine the dependency between scope elements. The method successfully identifies the bid package with the maximum interaction with other trade contractors and the scope elements that are crucial for project performance. The analysis provided graphical and quantitative information on bid package dependencies. The study can be helpful in performing an analysis to determine the dependencies between bid packages and their scope elements and how these scope elements are critical for project performance. The study illustrates the potential use of SNA as a systematic approach to analyzing bid package dependencies in construction projects, which can guide the division of crucial scope elements to minimize negative impacts on project performance.

Keywords: work structuring, bid packages, work breakdown, project participants

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Authors: Ishani Majumdar, Jaishree Paul

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Introduction: Ulcerative Colitis (UC) is an inflammatory disease of the colon resulting from an autoimmune response towards individual’s own microbiota. Excessive inflammation is characterized by hyper-activation of NFkB, a transcription factor regulating expression of various pro-inflammatory genes. The ubiquitin editing complex consisting of TNFAIP3, ITCH, RNF11 and TAX1BP1 maintains homeostatic levels of active NFkB through feedback inhibition and assembles in response to various stimuli that activate NFkB. TNFAIP3 deubiquitinates key signaling molecules involved in NFkB activation pathway. ITCH, RNF11 and TAX1BP1 provide substrate specificity, acting as adaptors for TNFAIP3 function. Aim: This study aimed to find expression of members of the ubiquitin editing complex at the transcript level in inflamed colon tissues of UC patients. Materials and Methods: Colonic biopsy samples were collected from 30 UC patients recruited at Department of Gastroenterology, AIIMS (New Delhi). Control group (n= 10) consisted of individuals undergoing examination for functional disorders. Real Time PCR was used to determine relative expression with GAPDH as housekeeping gene. Results: Expression of members of the ubiquitin editing complex was significantly altered during active disease. Expression of TNFAIP3 was upregulated while concomitant decrease in expression of ITCH, RNF11, TAX1BP1 was seen in UC patients. Discussion: This study reveals that increase in expression of TNFAIP3 was unable to control inflammation during active UC. Further, insufficient upregulation of ITCH, RNF11, TAX1BP1 may limit the formation of the ubiquitin complex and contribute to pathogenesis of UC.

Keywords: altered expression, inflammation, ubiquitin editing complex, ulcerative colitis

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Authors: Emre Bayamlıoğlu

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Apart from being the subject of neighboring rights when broadcasted on TV or of cinematographic work when fixed to a tangible medium including a hard drive, the copyright eligibility of a sports performance, and eventually the sporting event has once again given rise to controversy following the CJEU judgment in the Murphy case. Most of the arguments which deny copyright protection for sports performances focus on the fact that unlike movies, plays, television programs, or operas, athletic events are competitive and have no underlying script. The first part of the paper aims to explain that such rhetoric is rather weak simply for the fact that, several types of performances such as improvised musical or dramatic shows are still protected by copyright despite the fact that they are not based on a script. The second part argues that the core reason for the denial copyright protection was the functionality aiming certain practical results such as winning the game, scoring, eliminating an opponent, obstructing a shot and etc., but no scientific or artistic expression in whatsoever form. The paper further argues that expanding copyright protection to functional performances would give rise to unintended copyright claims by the athletes on tackles, shoots, passes, crosses etc. resulting with further restrictions on reporting and photographing of sporting events. The final part provides a policy analysis of the trend to broaden the scope of copyright to cover sports performances. It is argued that such expansion will clearly undermine the ratio legis of copyright laws since it will give rise to excessive commodification of information beyond the needs of a viable market economy. Therefore, remedies other than copyright protection such as unfair competition and unjust enrichment provides sufficient redress for the damages to be sustained by the investors of sporting events.

Keywords: copyright eligibility, idea-expression dichotomy, sports performance

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Authors: Sarah M. Asar, Nabeel M. Elhady

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Egypt’s current per capita water share indicates that the country suffers and has been suffering from water poverty. The abundant utilization of turfgrass in Egypt’s new urban settlements, the reliance on freshwater for irrigation, and the inadequate plant selection increase the water demand in such settlements. Decreasing the surface area of turfgrass by using alternative landscape features such as mulching, using ornamental low-maintenance plants, increasing pathways, etc., could significantly decrease the water demand of urban landscapes. The use of Ammochloa palaestina, Cenchrus crientalis (Oriental Fountain Grass), and Cistus parviflorus (with water demands of approximately 0.005m³/m²/day) as alternatives for Cynodon dactylon (0.01m³/m²/day), which is the most commonly used grass species in Egypt’s landscape, could decrease an area’s water demand by approximately 40-50%. Moreover, creating hydro-zones of similar water demanding plants would enable irrigation facilitation rather than the commonly used uniformed irrigation. Such a practice could further reduce water consumption by 15-20%. These results are based on a case-study analysis of one of Egypt’s relatively new urban settlements, Al-Rehab. Such results emphasize the importance of utilizing native, drought-tolerant vegetation in the urban landscapes of Egypt to reduce irrigation demands. Furthermore, proper implementation, monitoring, and maintenance of automated irrigation systems could be an important factor in a space’s efficient water use. As most new urban settlements in Egypt adopt sprinkler and drip irrigation systems, the lack of maintenance leads to the manual operation of such systems, and, thereby, excessive irrigation occurs.

Keywords: alternative landscape, native plants, efficient irrigation, low water demand

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

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Authors: Ana C. V. Freitas, Luciana B. M. Pires, Joao P. Martins

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In recent years, fire dynamics in deforestation areas of tropical forests have received considerable attention because of their relationship to climate change. Climate models project great increases in the frequency and area of drought in the Amazon region, which may increase the occurrence of fires. This study analyzes the historical record number of fire outbreaks in 2017 using satellite-derived data sets of active fire detections, burned area, precipitation, and data of the Fire Program from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE). A downward trend in the number of fire outbreaks occurred in the first half of 2017, in relation to the previous year. This decrease can be related to the fact that 2017 was not an El Niño year and, therefore, the observed rainfall and temperature in the Amazon region was close to normal conditions. Meanwhile, the worst period in history for fire outbreaks began with the subsequent arrival of the dry season. September of 2017 exceeded all monthly records for number of fire outbreaks per month in the entire series. This increase was mainly concentrated in Bolivia and in the states of Amazonas, northeastern Pará, northern Rondônia and Acre, regions with high densities of rural settlements, which strongly suggests that human action is the predominant factor, aggravated by the lack of precipitation during the dry season allowing the fires to spread and reach larger areas. Thus, deforestation in the Amazon is primarily a human-driven process: climate trends may be providing additional influences.

Keywords: Amazon forest, climate change, deforestation, human-driven process, fire outbreaks

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Authors: Ian N. Robertson

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Alkali Silica Reaction (ASR) occurs in concrete when the alkali hydroxides (Na, K and OH) from the cement react with unstable silica, SiO2, in some types of aggregate. The gel that forms during this reaction will expand when it absorbs water, potentially leading to cracking and overall expansion of the concrete. ASR has resulted in accelerated deterioration of concrete highways, dams and other structures that are exposed to moisture during their service life. Concrete aggregates available in Hawaii have not demonstrated a history of ASR, however, accelerated laboratory tests using ASTM 1260 indicated a potential for ASR with some aggregates. Certain clients are now requiring import of aggregates from the US mainland at great expense. In order to assess the accuracy of the laboratory test results, a long-term field study of the potential for ASR in concretes made with Hawaiian aggregates was initiated in 2011 with funding from the US Federal Highway Administration and Hawaii Department of Transportation. Thirty concrete specimens were constructed of various concrete mixtures using aggregates from all Hawaiian aggregate sources, and some US mainland aggregates known to exhibit ASR expansion. The specimens are located in an open field site in Manoa valley on the Hawaiian Island of Oahu, exposed to relatively high humidity and frequent rainfall. A weather station at the site records the ambient conditions on a continual basis. After two years of monitoring, only one of the Hawaiian aggregates showed any sign of expansion. Ten additional specimens were fabricated with this aggregate to confirm the earlier observations. Admixtures known to mitigate ASR, such as fly ash and lithium, were included in some specimens to evaluate their effect on the concrete expansion. This paper describes the field evaluation program and presents the results for all forty specimens after four years of monitoring.

Keywords: aggregate, alkali silica reaction, concrete durability, field exposure

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

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Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

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There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

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Authors: K. Shimola, M. Krishnaveni

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This paper examines vulnerability assessment of water resources in a semi-arid basin using the 4-step approach. The vulnerability assessment framework is developed to study the water resources vulnerability which includes the creation of GIS-based vulnerability maps. These maps represent the spatial variability of the vulnerability index. This paper introduces the 4-step approach to assess vulnerability that incorporates a new set of indicators. The approach is demonstrated using a framework composed of a precipitation data for (1975–2010) period, temperature data for (1965–2010) period, hydrological model outputs and the water resources GIS data base. The vulnerability assessment is a function of three components such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The current water resources vulnerability is assessed using GIS based spatio-temporal information. Rainfall Coefficient of Variation, monsoon onset and end date, rainy days, seasonality indices, temperature are selected for the criterion ‘exposure’. Water yield, ground water recharge, evapotranspiration (ET) are selected for the criterion ‘sensitivity’. Type of irrigation and storage structures are selected for the criterion ‘Adaptive capacity’. These indicators were mapped and integrated in GIS environment using overlay analysis. The five sub-basins, namely Arjunanadhi, Kousiganadhi, Sindapalli-Uppodai and Vallampatti Odai, fall under medium vulnerability profile, which indicates that the basin is under moderate stress of water resources. The paper also explores prioritization of sub-basinwise adaptation strategies to climate change based on the vulnerability indices.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, exposure, overlay analysis, sensitivity, vulnerability

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Authors: Benhamza Moussa, Aissaoui Marwa, Touati Mounira, Chaoui Widad

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The Guelma-Bouchegouf irrigated area is located in the northeast of Algeria, and it extends about 80 km. It was commissioned in 1996, with an irrigable area of 9250 ha, it spreads on both banks of the Seybouse Wadi and it is subdivided into five autonomous distribution sectors. In order to assess the state of groundwater quality, the results of the chemical analyzes were plotted on the Piper diagram, which shows that the chemical facies are sulfate-calcium chloride and sulfate-calcium with a slight tendency to migrate to chlorinated sulphate - sodium. The predominance of sulphates in the waters of the region is geologically explained by the existence in the Guelma Basin of evaporitic deposits, which are mainly represented by rock salt and gypsum. In addition to this natural origin, we can mention the anthropogenic origin, following the use of chemical fertilizers in the Guelma-Bouchegouf irrigated area. Na⁺ and Mg²⁺ show moderate to significant mineralization of water, closely correlated with very high conductivities. The values of the recorded conductivities vary from 1360 μs / cm (P3) to 4610 μs / cm (P10). These important values are due to dissolved salts on the one hand and the leaching of fertilizers by irrigation water on the other hand. NO₃⁻ and NH₄⁺ show little to significant pollution throughout the study area. Phosphate represents significant pollution, with excessive values far exceeding the allowable standard. With respect to ammonium, 87% of the sampling points present little pollution and 13 % significant pollution. Regarding phosphates, in the form of PO₄³⁻, groundwater in the study area represents significant pollution; all values far exceed the allowable standard.

Keywords: groundwater, organic parameters, standards, Pollution

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Authors: Igna Brajevic-Gizdic, Magda Pletikosa Pavić

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Introduction: Research in opiate addiction is increasingly indicating the importance of substitution therapy in opiate addicts. Opiate addiction is a chronic relapsing disease that includes craving as a criterion. Craving has been considered a predictor of a relapse, which is defined as a strong desire with an excessive need to take a substance. The study aimed to measure the intensity of craving using the VAS (visual analog scale) in opioid addicts taking Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST). Method: The total sample compromised of 30 participants in outpatient treatment. Two groups of opiate addicts were considered: Methadone-maintenance and buprenorphine-maintenance addicts. The participants completed the survey questionnaire during the outpatient treatment. Results: The results indicated high levels of cravings in patients during the treatment of OST, which is considered an important destabilization factor in abstinence. Thus, the use of methadone/buprenorphine dose should be considered. Conclusion: These findings provided an objective measurement of methadone /buprenorphine dosage and therapy options. The underdoes of OST can put patients at high risk of relapse, resulting in high levels of craving. Thus, when determining the therapeutic dose of OST, it is crucial to consider patients' cravings. This would achieve stabilization more quickly and avoid relapse in abstinence. Subjective physician assessment and patients' statement are the main criteria to determine OST dosage. Future studies should use larger sample sizes and focus on the importance of intensity craving measurement on OST to objectify methadone /buprenorphine dosage.

Keywords: buprenorphine, craving, heroin addicts, methadone, OST

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Authors: Malik Abid Hussain Khokhar, Muhammad Adnan Tahir, Hisham Bin Hafeez Awan

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Continuous environmental determinism and climatic change in the entire globe due to increasing land surface temperature (LST) has become a vital phenomenon nowadays. LST is accelerating because of increasing greenhouse gases in the environment which results of melting down ice caps, ice sheets and glaciers. It has not only worse effects on vegetation and water bodies of the region but has also severe impacts on monsoon areas in the form of capricious rainfall and monsoon failure extensive precipitation. Environment can be monitored with the help of various geographic information systems (GIS) based algorithms i.e. SC (Single), DA (Dual Angle), Mao, Sobrino and SW (Split Window). Estimation of LST is very much possible from digital image processing of satellite imagery. This paper will encompass extraction of LST of Abbottabad using SW technique of GIS and Remote Sensing over last ten years by means of Landsat 7 ETM+ (Environmental Thematic Mapper) and Landsat 8 vide their Thermal Infrared (TIR Sensor) and Optical Land Imager (OLI sensor less Landsat 7 ETM+) having 100 m TIR resolution and 30 m Spectral Resolutions. These sensors have two TIR bands each; their emissivity and spectral radiance will be used as input statistics in SW algorithm for LST extraction. Emissivity will be derived from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) threshold methods using 2-5 bands of OLI with the help of e-cognition software, and spectral radiance will be extracted TIR Bands (Band 10-11 and Band 6 of Landsat 7 ETM+). Accuracy of results will be evaluated by weather data as well. The successive research will have a significant role for all tires of governing bodies related to climate change departments.

Keywords: environment, Landsat 8, SW Algorithm, TIR

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Authors: D. A. S. Gamage, B. F. A. Basnayake, W.A.J.M. De Costa

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Rice is the staple food of Sri Lankans thus; rice cultivation is the major agricultural activity of the country. The application of inorganic fertilizer has become a burden to the country. The excessive application of organic and inorganic fertilizers can potentially lead to deterioration of the quality of water. In mixing both urea and rice husk charcoal and rice straw compost in soils causes a slow release of nitrogen fertilizer, thus reducing the cost of importations of nitrogen based fertilizers per unit area of cultivation. Objective of this study was to evaluate rice husk charcoal coated urea as a slow releasing fertilizer and compare the total N,P, K, organic matter in soil and yield of rice production. Five treatments were used for twenty pots (pot size 30 cm diameter and 45 cm height) each replicated four times as: inorganic fertilizer only (Urea, TSP and MOP) (Treatment 1); rice husk charcoal coated urea, TSP and MOP (Treatment 2); inorganic fertilizer (Urea, TSP and MOP) with rice straw compost only (Treatment 3); rice husk charcoal urea, TSP and MOP with rice straw compost (Treatment 4); and no fertilizer as the control (Treatment 5). Rice grain yield was significantly higher in treatment 4 where rice husk charcoal coated urea, TSP and MOP with rice straw compost. The lowest yield was observed in control (treatment 5). The lower the value of the nitrogen to phosphorous ratio in soil, it indicates higher uptake of phosphorous. Charcoal can be used as a soil amendment and organic fertilizer, but adjustment of pH was required at high application rates. K content of soil of treatment 3 and 4 were the highest with compared to the treatment 1. Rice husk charcoal coated urea can potentially be used as a slow releasing nitrogen fertilizer.

Keywords: charcoal, rice husk, nitrogen to phosphorous ratio, soil amendment

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Authors: Jae-Yong Park, Gwancheol Seo, Young-Ho Kim

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Microvoids, sometimes called Kikendall voids, generally form in the interfaces between Sn-based solders and Cu and degrade the mechanical and electrical properties of the solder joints. The microvoid formation is known as the rapid interdiffusion between Sn and Cu and impurity content in the Cu. Cu electroplating from the acid solutions has been widely used by microelectronic packaging industry for both printed circuit board (PCB) and integrated circuit (IC) applications. The quality of electroplated Cu that can be optimized by the electroplating conditions is critical for the solder joint reliability. In this paper, the influence of electroplating conditions on the microvoid growth in the interfaces between Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu (SAC) solder and Cu layer was investigated during isothermal aging. The Cu layers were electroplated by controlling the additive of electroplating bath and current density to induce various microvoid densities. The electroplating bath consisted of sulfate, sulfuric acid, and additives and the current density of 5-15 mA/cm2 for each bath was used. After aging at 180 °C for up to 250 h, typical bi-layer of Cu6Sn5 and Cu3Sn intermetallic compounds (IMCs) was gradually growth at the SAC/Cu interface and microvoid density in the Cu3Sn showed disparities in the electroplating conditions. As the current density increased, the microvoid formation was accelerated in all electroplating baths. The higher current density induced, the higher impurity content in the electroplated Cu. When the polyethylene glycol (PEG) and Cl- ion were mixed in an electroplating bath, the microvoid formation was the highest compared to other electroplating baths. On the other hand, the overall IMC thickness was similar in all samples irrespective of the electroplating conditions. Impurity content in electroplated Cu influenced the microvoid growth, but the IMC growth was not affected by the impurity content. In conclusion, the electroplated conditions are properly optimized to avoid the excessive microvoid formation that results in brittle fracture of solder joint under high strain rate loading.

Keywords: electroplating, additive, microvoid, intermetallic compound

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Authors: Yu-Ting Tsai, Chiun-Chieh Hsu, Yu-Chun Chu

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In recent years, due to the development of wireless network technology, many researchers have devoted to the study of wireless sensor networks. The applications of wireless sensor network mainly use the sensor nodes to collect the required information, and send the information back to the users. Since the sensed area is difficult to reach, there are many restrictions on the design of the sensor nodes, where the most important restriction is the limited energy of sensor nodes. Because of the limited energy, researchers proposed a number of ways to reduce energy consumption and balance the load of sensor nodes in order to increase the network lifetime. In this paper, we proposed the Energy-Balanced Clustering method with Auxiliary Members on Wireless Sensor Networks（EBCAM）based on the cluster routing. The main purpose is to balance the energy consumption on the sensed area and average the distribution of dead nodes in order to avoid excessive energy consumption because of the increasing in transmission distance. In addition, we use the residual energy and average energy consumption of the nodes within the cluster to choose the cluster heads, use the multi hop transmission method to deliver the data, and dynamically adjust the transmission radius according to the load conditions. Finally, we use the auxiliary cluster members to change the delivering path according to the residual energy of the cluster head in order to its load. Finally, we compare the proposed method with the related algorithms via simulated experiments and then analyze the results. It reveals that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms in the numbers of used rounds and the average energy consumption.

Keywords: auxiliary nodes, cluster, load balance, routing algorithm, wireless sensor network

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Authors: Odoh Ben Uruchi

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Access to Justice implies access to social and distributive Justice. Access to social justice in Nigeria remains an illusion where cases last in courts for unduly long period of time, as is currently the situation in the country. As the popular saying goes– justice delayed is justice denied. It is, however, important to underscore the point that these perspectives are not necessarily disconnected since the extent to which one can have distributive justice in any system is largely determined by the level and effectiveness of social justice in the country. Generally, Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) Processes are increasingly being accepted in Nigeria as appropriate mechanisms for resolving disputes. While some jurisdictions have institutionalized ADR through the concept of a Multidoor Courthouse, many other are at different stages of doing same. With these developments, it is obvious that stakeholders in the administration of justice in Nigeria, can no longer be indifferent about understanding and fully mainstreaming ADR into their various activities and professional practice. Any framework for promoting social justice in Nigeria should therefore of necessity include provision of avenues for use of ADR in the protection and enforcement of citizen’s rights. The constitutional and other legal provisions that guarantee various rights of citizens cannot of itself ensure the enjoyment of the rights in the absence of an effective framework for dispute resolution. Excessive reliance on litigation and other adversarial approaches will also fail to ensure a sound regime of social justice. There should be structured mainstreaming of alternative dispute resolution mechanisms in justice delivery if the society must provide and guarantee social justice to the citizens. This paper seeks to address some of the fundamental issues affecting the perception, knowledge and skills of ADR in the provision of social justice. In doing this, the paper proposes to unlock the full enormous potentials of Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) in promoting access to justice in Nigeria.

Keywords: aspects, dimensions, alternative dispute resolution, social justice

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Authors: Ramin Mansouri

Abstract:

Due to the contrast of rivers discharge regime with water demands, one of the best ways to use water resources is to regulate the natural flow of the rivers and supplying water needs to construct dams. Optimal utilization of reservoirs, consideration of multiple important goals together at the same is of very high importance. To study about analyzing this method, statistical data of Bakhtiari and Roudbar dam over 46 years (1955 until 2001) is used. Initially an appropriate objective function was specified and using DE algorithm, the rule curve was developed. In continue, operation policy using rule curves was compared to standard comparative operation policy. The proposed method distributed the lack to the whole year and lowest damage was inflicted to the system. The standard deviation of monthly shortfall of each year with the proposed algorithm was less deviated than the other two methods. The Results show that median values for the coefficients of F and Cr provide the optimum situation and cause DE algorithm not to be trapped in local optimum. The most optimal answer for coefficients are 0.6 and 0.5 for F and Cr coefficients, respectively. After finding the best combination of coefficients values F and CR, algorithms for solving the independent populations were examined. For this purpose, the population of 4, 25, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 members were studied in two generations (G=50 and 100). result indicates that the generation number 200 is suitable for optimizing. The increase in time per the number of population has almost a linear trend, which indicates the effect of population in the runtime algorithm. Hence specifying suitable population to obtain an optimal results is very important. Standard operation policy had better reversibility percentage, but inflicts severe vulnerability to the system. The results obtained in years of low rainfall had very good results compared to other comparative methods.

Keywords: reservoirs, differential evolution, dam, Optimal operation

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