Search results for: power supply reliability

Authors: Mike Omilusi

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Since the Buhari administration came to power, it has gained the people’s confidence with its anti-corruption efforts. Making culprits account for their past unlawful deeds, in a very determined and aggressive manner ever witnessed in the nation’s political history, generates different reactions among Nigerians. However, some questions remain pertinent to this study: Are Nigerians really advocating persecution or prosecution in respect of the graft suspects? Do they want conviction without being convinced? Is their outburst propelled by emotions and revengeful anticipation of having suspected looters of the nation’s commonwealth behind bars? Can the war be successfully fought without resorting to impunity? Relying extensively on secondary sources with the aid of descriptive and narrative tools, this study seeks to interrogate the claim of fundamental human rights in the face of wanton looting of the nation’s resources. If, as opined by President Buhari, corruption is a crime against humanity, then it is argued that those who commit such crime should be subjected to penalties prescribed by law. Such crime -as corruption in this study- deprives the citizens of welfare, social amenities and good things of life. In this instance, it also poses threats to national security, having misappropriated funds meant for the war against the Boko Haram terrorism as revealed by the anti-corruption agency in the country. A theoretically-driven investigation, this essay raises some expectations within the context of good governance-propelled anti-corruption crusade, making modest recommendations as to how corruption should be prevented and combated within the confine of rule of law.

Keywords: corruption, rule of law, human rights, prosecution, commonwealth

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Authors: Ion Robu, Claudiu Mazilu, Radu Deju

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Natural aggregates (gravel and crushed) are essential non-renewable resources which are used for infrastructure works and civil engineering. In European Union member states from Southeast Europe, it is estimated that the construction industry will grow by 4.2% thereafter complicating aggregate supply management. In addition, a significant additional problem that can be associated to the aggregates industry is wasting potential resources through waste dumping of inert waste, especially waste from construction and demolition activities. In 2012, in Romania, less than 10% of construction and demolition waste (including concrete) are valorized, while the European Union requires that by 2020 this proportion should be at least 70% (Directive 2008/98/EC on waste, transposed into Romanian legislation by Law 211/2011). Depending on the efficiency of waste processing and the quality of recycled aggregate concrete (RCA) obtained, poor quality aggregate can be used as foundation material for roads and at the high quality for new concrete on construction. To obtain good quality concrete using recycled aggregate is necessary to meet the minimum requirements defined by the rules for the manufacture of concrete with natural aggregate. Properties of recycled aggregate (density, granulosity, granule shape, water absorption, weight loss to Los Angeles test, attached mortar content etc.) are the basis for concrete quality; also establishing appropriate proportions between components and the concrete production methods are extremely important for its quality. This paper presents a study on the use of recycled aggregates, from a concrete of specified class, to acquire new cement concrete with different percentages of recycled aggregates. To achieve recycled aggregates several batches of concrete class C16/20, C25/30 and C35/45 were made, the compositions calculation being made according NE012/2007 CP012/2007. Tests for producing recycled aggregate was carried out using concrete samples of the established three classes after 28 days of storage under the above conditions. Cubes with 150mm side were crushed in a first stage with a jaw crusher Liebherr type set at 50 mm nominally. The resulting material was separated by sieving on granulometric sorts and 10-50 sort was used for preliminary tests of crushing in the second stage with a jaw crusher BB 200 Retsch model, respectively a hammer crusher Buffalo Shuttle WA-12-H model. It was highlighted the influence of the type of crusher used to obtain recycled aggregates on granulometry and granule shape and the influence of the attached mortar on the density, water absorption, behavior to the Los Angeles test etc. The proportion of attached mortar was determined and correlated with provenance concrete class of the recycled aggregates and their granulometric sort. The aim to characterize the recycled aggregates is their valorification in new concrete used in construction. In this regard have been made a series of concrete in which the recycled aggregate content was varied from 0 to 100%. The new concrete were characterized by point of view of the change in the density and compressive strength with the proportion of recycled aggregates. It has been shown that an increase in recycled aggregate content not necessarily mean a reduction in compressive strength, quality of the aggregate having a decisive role.

Keywords: recycled concrete aggregate, characteristics, recycled aggregate concrete, properties

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Authors: Zo Hasina Rabemananjara

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The North-East of Madagascar is the pillar of Madagascar's foreign trade, providing 41% and 80% of world exports of cloves and vanilla, respectively, in 2016. For Madagascar, the north-eastern escarpment is home to the last massifs of humid forest in large scale of the island, surrounded by a small scale agricultural mosaic. In the sites where this study is taking place, located in the peripheral zones of protected areas, the production of rent aims to supply international markets. In fact, importers of the cash crops produced in these areas are located mainly in India, Singapore, France, Germany and the United States. Recently, the price of these products has increased significantly, especially from the year 2015. For vanilla, the price has skyrocketed, from an approximate price of 73 USD per kilo in 2015 to more than 250 USD per kilo in 2016. The value of clove exports increased sharply by 49.4% in 2017, largely to Singapore and India due to the sharp increase in exported volume (+47, 6%) in 2017. If the relationship between the rise in prices of rented products and the change in physical environments is known, the evolution of the behavior of land users linked to this aspect was not yet addressed by research. In fact, the consequence of this price increase in the organization of the use of space at the local level still raises questions. Hence, the research question is: to what extent does this improvement in the price of imported products affect user behavior linked to the local organization of access to the factor of soil production? To fully appreciate this change in behavior, surveys of 144 land user households were carried out, and group interviews were also carried out. The results of this research showed that the rise in the prices of annuity products from the year 2015 caused significant changes in the behavior of land users in the study sites. Young people, who have not been attracted to farming for a long time, have started to show interest in it since the period of rising vanilla and clove prices. They have set up their own fields of vanilla and clove cultivation. This revival of interest conferred an important value on the land and caused conflicts especially between family members because the acquisition of the cultivated land was done by inheritance or donation. This change in user behavior has also affected the farmers' life strategy since the latter have decided to abandon rain-fed rice farming, which has long been considered a guaranteed subsistence activity for cash crops. This research will contribute to nourishing scientific reflection on the management of land use and also to support political decision-makers in decision-making on spatial planning.

Keywords: behavior of land users, North-eastern Madagascar, price of export products, spatial planning

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Authors: Nicolae Constantin, Ştefan Sorohan

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The small and medium wind turbines are running in quite different conditions as compared to the big ones. Consequently, they need also a different approach concerning the structural health monitoring (SHM) issues. There are four main differences between the above mentioned categories: (i) significantly smaller dimensions, (ii) considerably higher rotation speed, (iii) generally small distance between the turbine and the energy consumer and (iv) monitoring assumed in many situations by the owner. In such conditions, nondestructive inspections (NDI) have to be made as much as possible with affordable, yet effective techniques, requiring portable and accessible equipment. Additionally, the turbines and accessories should be easy to mount, dispose and repair. As the materials used for such unit can be metals, composites and combined, the technologies should be adapted accordingly. An example in which the two materials co-exist is the situation in which the damaged metallic skin of a blade is repaired with a composite patch. The paper presents the inspection of the bonding state of the patch, using portable ultrasonic equipment, able to put in place the Lamb wave method, which proves efficient in global and local inspections as well. The equipment is relatively easy to handle and can be borrowed from specialized laboratories or used by a community of small wind turbine users, upon the case. This evaluation is the first in a row, aimed to evaluate efficiency of NDI performed with rather accessible, less sophisticated equipment and related inspection techniques, having field inspection capabilities. The main goal is to extend such inspection procedures to other components of the wind power unit, such as the support tower, water storage tanks, etc.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, small wind turbines, non-destructive inspection, field inspection capabilities

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Authors: Elham Koohi, Silvio Jose Gumiere, Hossein Bonakdari, Saeid Homayouni

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Water used in agricultural crops can be managed by irrigation scheduling based on soil moisture levels and plant water stress thresholds. Automated irrigation scheduling limits crop physiological damage and yield reduction. Knowledge of crop water stress monitoring approaches can be effective in optimizing the use of agricultural water. Understanding the physiological mechanisms of crop responding and adapting to water deficit ensures sustainable agricultural management and food supply. This aim could be achieved by analyzing and diagnosing crop characteristics and their interlinkage with the surrounding environment. Assessments of plant functional types (e.g., leaf area and structure, tree height, rate of evapotranspiration, rate of photosynthesis), controlling changes, and irrigated areas mapping. Calculating thresholds of soil water content parameters, crop water use efficiency, and Nitrogen status make irrigation scheduling decisions more accurate by preventing water limitations between irrigations. Combining Remote Sensing (RS), the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Machine Learning Algorithms (MLAs) can improve measurement accuracies and automate irrigation scheduling. This paper is a review structured by surveying about 100 recent research studies to analyze varied approaches in terms of providing high spatial and temporal resolution mapping, sensor-based Variable Rate Application (VRA) mapping, the relation between spectral and thermal reflectance and different features of crop and soil. The other objective is to assess RS indices formed by choosing specific reflectance bands and identifying the correct spectral band to optimize classification techniques and analyze Proximal Optical Sensors (POSs) to control changes. The innovation of this paper can be defined as categorizing evaluation methodologies of precision irrigation (applying the right practice, at the right place, at the right time, with the right quantity) controlled by soil moisture levels and sensitiveness of crops to water stress, into pre-processing, processing (retrieval algorithms), and post-processing parts. Then, the main idea of this research is to analyze the error reasons and/or values in employing different approaches in three proposed parts reported by recent studies. Additionally, as an overview conclusion tried to decompose different approaches to optimizing indices, calibration methods for the sensors, thresholding and prediction models prone to errors, and improvements in classification accuracy for mapping changes.

Keywords: agricultural crops, crop water stress detection, irrigation scheduling, precision agriculture, remote sensing

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Authors: Taha Anjamrooz, Sareh Rajabi, Ayman Alzaatreh

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Smart cities are playing important roles in real life. Integration and automation between different features of modern cities and information technologies improve smart city efficiency, energy management, human and equipment resource management, life quality and better utilization of resources for the customers. One of difficulties in this path, is use, interface and link between software, hardware, and other IT technologies to develop and optimize processes in various business fields such as construction, supply chain management and transportation in parallel to cost-effective and resource reduction impacts. Also, Smart cities are certainly intended to demonstrate a vital role in offering a sustainable and efficient model for smart houses while mitigating environmental and ecological matters. Energy management is one of the most important matters within smart houses in the smart cities and communities, because of the sensitivity of energy systems, reduction in energy wastage and maximization in utilizing the required energy. Specially, the consumption of energy in the smart houses is important and considerable in the economic balance and energy management in smart city as it causes significant increment in energy-saving and energy-wastage reduction. This research paper develops features and concept of smart city in term of overall efficiency through various effective variables. The selected variables and observations are analyzed through data analysis processes to demonstrate the efficiency of smart city and compare the effectiveness of each variable. There are ten chosen variables in this study to improve overall efficiency of smart city through increasing effectiveness of smart houses using an automated solar photovoltaic system, RFID System, smart meter and other major elements by interfacing between software and hardware devices as well as IT technologies. Secondly to enhance aspect of energy management by energy-saving within smart house through efficient variables. The main objective of smart city and smart houses is to reproduce energy and increase its efficiency through selected variables with a comfortable and harmless atmosphere for the customers within a smart city in combination of control over the energy consumption in smart house using developed IT technologies. Initially the comparison between traditional housing and smart city samples is conducted to indicate more efficient system. Moreover, the main variables involved in measuring overall efficiency of system are analyzed through various processes to identify and prioritize the variables in accordance to their influence over the model. The result analysis of this model can be used as comparison and benchmarking with traditional life style to demonstrate the privileges of smart cities. Furthermore, due to expensive and expected shortage of natural resources in near future, insufficient and developed research study in the region, and available potential due to climate and governmental vision, the result and analysis of this study can be used as key indicator to select most effective variables or devices during construction phase and design

Keywords: smart city, traditional housing, RFID, photovoltaic system, energy efficiency, energy saving

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Authors: Alireza Fard Kashani

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This study reports on the experiences and attitudes of six Iranian migrant families, from two groups of asylum seekers and skilled workers, with regard to their language, identity, and acculturation in Australia. The participants included first generation parents and 1.5-generation adolescents, who had lived in Australia for a minimum of three years. For this investigation, Mendoza’s (1984, 2016) acculturation model, as well as poststructuralist views of identity, were employed. The semi-structured interview results have highlighted that Iranian parents and adolescents face low degrees of intergenerational conflicts in most domains of their acculturation. However, the structural and lawful patterns in Australia have caused some internal conflicts for the parents, especially fathers (e.g., their power status within the family or their children’s freedom). Furthermore, while most participants reported ‘cultural eclecticism’ as their preferred acculturation orientation, female participants seemed to be more eclectic than their male counterparts who showed inclination towards keeping more aspects of their home culture. This finding, however, highlights a meaningful effort on the part of husbands that in order to make their married lives continue well in Australia they need to re-consider the traditional male-dominated customs they used to have in Iran. As for identity, not only the parents but also the adolescents proudly identified themselves as Persians. In addition, with respect to linguistic behaviour, almost all adolescents showed enthusiasm to retain the Persian language at home to be able to maintain contacts with their relatives and friends in Iran and to enjoy many other benefits the language may offer them in the future.

Keywords: acculturation, asylum seekers, identity, intergenerational conflicts, language, skilled workers, 1.5 generation

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Authors: Ruolan Zhang, Ryo Imai, Naoko Senda, Tomoyuki Sakai

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Enzymes have attracted increasing attentions in industrial manufacturing for their applicability in catalyzing complex chemical reactions under mild conditions. Directed evolution has become a powerful approach to optimize enzymes and exploit their full potentials under the circumstance of insufficient structure-function knowledge. With the incorporation of cell-free synthetic biotechnology, rapid enzyme synthesis can be realized because no cloning procedure such as transfection is needed. Its open environment also enables direct enzyme measurement. These properties of cell-free biotechnology lead to excellent throughput of enzymes generation. However, the capabilities of current screening methods have limitations. Fluorescence-based assay needs applicable fluorescent label, and the reliability of acquired enzymatic activity is influenced by fluorescent label’s binding affinity and photostability. To acquire the natural activity of an enzyme, another method is to combine pre-screening step and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) measurement. But its throughput is limited by necessary time investment. Hundreds of variants are selected from libraries, and their enzymatic activities are then identified one by one by HPLC. The turn-around-time is 30 minutes for one sample by HPLC, which limits the acquirable enzyme improvement within reasonable time. To achieve the real high-throughput enzyme screening, i.e., obtain reliable enzyme improvement within reasonable time, a widely applicable high-throughput measurement of enzymatic reactions is highly demanded. Here, a high-throughput screening method using broadband coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) was proposed. CARS is one of coherent Raman spectroscopy, which can identify label-free chemical components specifically from their inherent molecular vibration. These characteristic vibrational signals are generated from different vibrational modes of chemical bonds. With the broadband CARS, chemicals in one sample can be identified from their signals in one broadband CARS spectrum. Moreover, it can magnify the signal levels to several orders of magnitude greater than spontaneous Raman systems, and therefore has the potential to evaluate chemical's concentration rapidly. As a demonstration of screening with CARS, alcohol dehydrogenase, which converts ethanol and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide oxidized form (NAD+) to acetaldehyde and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide reduced form (NADH), was used. The signal of NADH at 1660 cm⁻¹, which is generated from nicotinamide in NADH, was utilized to measure the concentration of it. The evaluation time for CARS signal of NADH was determined to be as short as 0.33 seconds while having a system sensitivity of 2.5 mM. The time course of alcohol dehydrogenase reaction was successfully measured from increasing signal intensity of NADH. This measurement result of CARS was consistent with the result of a conventional method, UV-Vis. CARS is expected to have application in high-throughput enzyme screening and realize more reliable enzyme improvement within reasonable time.

Keywords: Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Spectroscopy, CARS, directed evolution, enzyme screening, Raman spectroscopy

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Authors: Murari Prasad

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This paper is motivated by the implications of indentured migration depicted in Amitav Ghosh’s critically acclaimed novel, Sea of Poppies (2008). Ghosh’s perspective on the experiences of North Indian indentured labourers moving from their homeland to a distant and unknown location across the seas suggests a radical attitudinal change among the migrants on board the Ibis, a schooner chartered to carry the recruits from Calcutta to Mauritius in the late 1830s. The novel unfolds the life-altering trauma of the bonded servants, including their efforts to maintain a sense of self while negotiating significant social and cultural transformations during the voyage which leads to the breakdown of familiar life-worlds. Equally, the migrants are introduced to an alternative network of relationships to ensure their survival away from land. They relinquish their entrenched beliefs and prejudices and commit themselves to a new brotherhood formed by ‘ship siblings.’ With the official abolition of direct slavery in 1833, the supply of cheap labour to the sugar plantation in British colonies as far-flung as Mauritius and Fiji to East Africa and the Caribbean sharply declined. Around the same time, China’s attempt to prohibit the illegal importation of opium from British India into China threatened the lucrative opium trade. To run the ever-profitable plantation colonies with cheap labour, Indian peasants, wrenched from their village economies, were indentured to plantations as girmitiyas (vernacularized from ‘agreement’) by the colonial government using the ploy of an optional form of recruitment. After the British conquest of the Isle of France in 1810, Mauritius became Britain’s premier sugar colony bringing waves of Indian immigrants to the island. In the articulations of their subjectivities one notices how the recruits cope with the alienating drudgery of indenture, mitigate the hardships of the voyage and forge new ties with pragmatic acts of cultural syncretism in a forward-looking autonomous community of ‘ship-siblings’ following the fracture of traditional identities. This paper tests the hypothesis that Ghosh envisions a kind of futuristic/utopian political collectivity in a hierarchically rigid, racially segregated and identity-obsessed world. In order to ground the claim and frame the complex representations of alliance and love across the boundaries of caste, religion, gender and nation, the essential methodology here is a close textual analysis of the novel. This methodology will be geared to explicate the utopian futurity that the novel gestures towards by underlining new regulations of life during voyage and dissolution of multiple differences among the indentured migrants on board the Ibis.

Keywords: indenture, colonial, opium, sugar plantation

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Authors: Antwi Kwaku Dei, Lyford Conrad Power

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This paper investigates the outcome of participating in the government of Ghana block farm program on rural households’ farm productivity, income, food security and nutritional status in Northern Ghana using cross-sectional data. Data analysis was done using the Instrumental Variable and the Heckman Selection Bias procedures. Our analysis indicates that participation in the block farm program significantly increased directly the productivity of maize, rice, and soybean by 21.3 percent, 15.8 percent, and 12.3 percent respectively. Also, the program participation was found to increase households’ farm income by 20 percent in northern Ghana. Furthermore, program participation was found to improve household food security and nutrition by 19 percent and 14 percent respectively through income effect. Based on the benefit-cost ratio of 1.59 the results from the study recommends that the program is expanded to other communities in the northern region. Further analysis indicates that rural households’ decision to participate in food security intervention programs is significantly influenced by factors including the gender of the household head, the age of the household head, and household size. Results of the study further show that gender of household head, household size, household monthly income, household assets, women educational status, the age of women, marital status of women, are significant determinants of food security and nutrition status in Northern Ghana.

Keywords: block farm program, farm productivity, , household food security, Northern Ghana

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Authors: Miroslava Cuperlovic-Culf, Lipu Wang, Ketty Boyle, Nadine Makley, Ian Burton, Anissa Belkaid, Mohamed Touaibia, Marc E. Surrette

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Metabolic changes are one of the major factors in the development of a variety of diseases in various species. Metabolism of agricultural plants is altered the following infection with pathogens sometimes contributing to resistance. At the same time, pathogens use metabolites for infection and progression. In humans, metabolism is a hallmark of cancer development for example. Quantified metabolomics data combined with other omics or clinical data and analyzed using various unsupervised and supervised methods can lead to better diagnosis and prognosis. It can also provide information about resistance as well as contribute knowledge of compounds significant for disease progression or prevention. In this work, different methods for metabolomics quantification and analysis from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) measurements that are used for investigation of disease development in wheat and human cells will be presented. One-dimensional 1H NMR spectra are used extensively for metabolic profiling due to their high reliability, wide range of applicability, speed, trivial sample preparation and low cost. This presentation will describe a new method for metabolite quantification from NMR data that combines alignment of spectra of standards to sample spectra followed by multivariate linear regression optimization of spectra of assigned metabolites to samples’ spectra. Several different alignment methods were tested and multivariate linear regression result has been compared with other quantification methods. Quantified metabolomics data can be analyzed in the variety of ways and we will present different clustering methods used for phenotype determination, network analysis providing knowledge about the relationships between metabolites through metabolic network as well as biomarker selection providing novel markers. These analysis methods have been utilized for the investigation of fusarium head blight resistance in wheat cultivars as well as analysis of the effect of estrogen receptor and carbonic anhydrase activation and inhibition on breast cancer cell metabolism. Metabolic changes in spikelet’s of wheat cultivars FL62R1, Stettler, MuchMore and Sumai3 following fusarium graminearum infection were explored. Extensive 1D 1H and 2D NMR measurements provided information for detailed metabolite assignment and quantification leading to possible metabolic markers discriminating resistance level in wheat subtypes. Quantification data is compared to results obtained using other published methods. Fusarium infection induced metabolic changes in different wheat varieties are discussed in the context of metabolic network and resistance. Quantitative metabolomics has been used for the investigation of the effect of targeted enzyme inhibition in cancer. In this work, the effect of 17 β -estradiol and ferulic acid on metabolism of ER+ breast cancer cells has been compared to their effect on ER- control cells. The effect of the inhibitors of carbonic anhydrase on the observed metabolic changes resulting from ER activation has also been determined. Metabolic profiles were studied using 1D and 2D metabolomic NMR experiments, combined with the identification and quantification of metabolites, and the annotation of the results is provided in the context of biochemical pathways.

Keywords: metabolic biomarkers, metabolic network, metabolomics, multivariate linear regression, NMR quantification, quantified metabolomics, spectral alignment

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Authors: Fakhrullah Sarwari, Hiroko Ono

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Kabul city has suffered a lot in 40 years of conflict of civil war and “The war on terror”. After the invasion of Afghanistan by the United States of America and its allies in 2001, the Taliban was removed from operational power, but The Taliban and other terrorist groups remained in remote areas of the country, they started suicide attacks and bombings. Hence to protect from these attacks officials surrounded their office buildings and houses with concrete blast walls. It gives a bad landscape to the city and creates traffic congestions. Our research contains; questionnaire, reviewing Kabul Municipality documents and literature review. Questionnaires were distributed to Kabul citizens to find out how people feel by seeing the T-Walls on Kabul streets? And what problems they face with T-Walls. “The T-Walls pull down commission” of Kabul Municipality documents were reviewed to find out what caused the failure of this commission. A literature review has been done to compare Kabul with Washington D.C on how they designed the city against terrorism threat without turning the cities into lock down. Bogota city of Columbia urban happiness movement is reviewed and compared with Kabul. The finding of research revealed that citizens of Kabul want security but not at the expense of public realm and creating the architecture of fear. It also indicates that increasing the T-walls do not give secure feeling but instead; it increases terror, hatred and affect people’s optimism. At the end, a series of recommendation is suggested on the issue.

Keywords: anti-terror design, Kabul, T-Walls, urban happiness

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Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech

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The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.

Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation

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Authors: E. A. Abdel-Hakim

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The corn stemborer Sesamia cretica (Lederer), has been viewed in many parts of the world as a major pest of cultivated maize, graminaceous crops and sugarcane. Its life cycle is comprised of two different phases, one is the growth and developmental phase (non-diapause) and the other is diapause phase which takes place at the last larval instar. Several problems associated with the use of conventional insecticides, have strongly demonstrated the need for applying alternative safe compounds. Prominent among the prototypes of such prospective chemicals are the juvenoids; i.e. the insect (JH) mimics. In fact, the hormonal effect on metabolism has long been viewed as a secondary consequence of its direct action on specific energy-requiring biosynthetic mechanisms. Therefore, the present study was undertaken essentially in a rather systematic fashion as a contribution towards clarifying metabolic and energetic changes taking place during non-diapause wandering larvae as regulated by (JH) mimic. For this purpose, we applied two different doses of JH mimic (Ro 11-0111) in a single (standard) dose of 100µg or in a single dose of 20 µg/g bw in1µl acetone topically at the onset of nondiapause wandering larvae (WL). Energetic data were obtained by indirect calorimetry methods by conversion of respiratory gas exchange volumetric data, as measured manometrically using a Warburg constant respirometer, to caloric units (g-cal/g fw/h). The findings obtained can be given in brief; these treated larvae underwent supernumerary larval moults. However, this potential the wandering larvae proved to possess whereby restoration of larval programming for S. cretica to overcome stresses even at this critical developmental period. The results obtained, particularly with the high dose used, show that 98% wandering larvae were rescued to survive up to one month (vs. 5 days for normal controls), finally the formation of larval-adult intermediates. Also, the solvent controls had resulted in about 22% additional, but stationary moultings. The basal respiratory metabolism (O2 uptake and CO2 output) of the (WL), whether un-treated or larvae not had followed reciprocal U-shaped curves all along of their developmental duration. The lowest points stood nearly to the day of prepupal formation (571±187 µl O2/gfw/h and 553±181 µl CO2/gfw/h) during un-treated in contrast to the larvae treated with JH (210±48 µl O2/gfw/h and 335±81 µl CO2/gfw/h). Un-treated (normal) larvae proved to utilize carbohydrates as the principal source for energy supply; being fully oxidised without sparing any appreciable amount for endergonic conversion to fats. While, the juvenoid-treated larvae and compared with the acetone-treated control equivalents, there existed no distinguishable differences between them; both had been observed utilising carbohydrates as the sole source of energy demand and converting endergonically almost similar percentages to fats. The overall profile, treated and un-treated (WL) utilized carbohydrates as the principal source for energy demand during this stage.

Keywords: juvenile hormone, respiratory metabolism, Sesamia cretica, wandering phase

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Authors: Ugwu Chukwuka E.

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The African context of human right instruments as recognized today can be traced to Africa’s relationship with the Western World. A significant preponderance of these instruments are found in both colonial and post colonial statutes as the colonial laws, the post colonial legal documents as constitutions or Africa’s adherence to relevant international instruments on human rights as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) and the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights (1981). In spite of all these human rights instruments inherent in the African continent, it is contended in this paper that, these Western-oriented notion of human rights, emphasizes rights that hardly meets the current needs of contemporary African citizens. Adopting a historical research methodology, this study interrogates the dynamics of the African poverty context in relation to the implementation of human rights instruments in the continent. In this vein, using human rights and poverty scenarios from one Anglophone (Uganda) and one Francophone (Senegal) countries in Africa, the study hypothesized that, majority of Africans are not in a historical condition for the realization of these rights. The raison d’etre for this claim emerges from the fact that, the present generations of African hoi polloi are inundated with extensive powerlessness, ignorance, diseases, hunger and overall poverty that emasculates their interest in these rights instruments. In contrast, the few Africans who have access to the enjoyment of these rights in the continent hardly needs these instruments, as their power and resources base secures them that. The paper concludes that the stress of African states and stakeholders on African affairs should concentrated significantly, on the alleviation of the present historical poverty squalor of Africans, which when attended to, enhances the realization of human right situations in the continent.

Keywords: Africa, human rights, poverty, western world

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Authors: Yibeltal Chanie Manie, Zebider Asire Munyelet

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5G and 6G technology offers enhanced quality of service with high data transmission rates, which necessitates the implementation of the Internet of Things (IoT) in 5G/6G architecture. In this paper, we proposed the integration of free space optical communication (FSO) with fiber sensor networks for IoT applications. Recently, free-space optical communications (FSO) are gaining popularity as an effective alternative technology to the limited availability of radio frequency (RF) spectrum. FSO is gaining popularity due to flexibility, high achievable optical bandwidth, and low power consumption in several applications of communications, such as disaster recovery, last-mile connectivity, drones, surveillance, backhaul, and satellite communications. Hence, high-speed FSO is an optimal choice for wireless networks to satisfy the full potential of 5G/6G technology, offering 100 Gbit/s or more speed in IoT applications. Moreover, machine learning must be integrated into the design, planning, and optimization of future optical wireless communication networks in order to actualize this vision of intelligent processing and operation. In addition, fiber sensors are important to achieve real-time, accurate, and smart monitoring in IoT applications. Moreover, we proposed deep learning techniques to estimate the strain changes and peak wavelength of multiple Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors using only the spectrum of FBGs obtained from the real experiment.

Keywords: optical sensor, artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things, free-space optics

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Authors: Esra Güney, Tuba Uçar

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Aim: This study has been conducted for the purpose of determining the effects of fetal movement counting on antenatal maternal attachment. Material and Method: This research was conducted on the basis of the real test model with the pre-test /post-test control groups. The study population consists of pregnant women registered in the six different Family Health Centers located in the central Malatya districts of Yeşilyurt and Battalgazi. When power analysis is done, the sample size was calculated for each group of at least 55 pregnant women (55 tests, 55 controls). The data were collected by using Personal Information Form and MAAS (Maternal Antenatal Attachment Scale) between July 2015-June 2016. Fetal movement counting training was given to pregnant women by researchers in the experimental group after the pre-test data collection. No intervention was applied to the control group. Post-test data for both groups were collected after four weeks. Data were evaluated with percentage, chi-square arithmetic average, chi-square test and as for the dependent and independent group’s t test. Result: In the MAAS, the pre-test average of total scores in the experimental group is 70.78±6.78, control group is also 71.58±7.54 and so there was no significant difference in mean scores between the two groups (p>0.05). MAAS post-test average of total scores in the experimental group is 78.41±6.65, control group is also is 72.25±7.16 and so the mean scores between groups were found to have statistically significant difference (p<0.05). Conclusion: It was determined that fetal movement counting increases the maternal antenatal attachments.

Keywords: antenatal maternal attachment, fetal movement counting, pregnancy, midwifery

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Kusum Kumari, Ramesh Banoth, V. S. Reddy Channu

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Organic-inorganic perovskite solar cells (PrSCs) have emerged as a promising solar photovoltaic technology in terms of realizing high power conversion efficiency (PCE). However, their limited lifetime and poor device stability limits their commercialization in future. In this regard, interface engineering of the electron transport layer (ETL) using 2D materials have been currently used owing to their high carrier mobility, high thermal stability and tunable work function, which in turn enormously impact the charge carrier dynamics. In this work, we report an easy and effective way of simultaneously enhancing the efficiency of PrSCs along with the long-term stability through interface engineering via the incorporation of 2D-Molybdenum disulfide (2D-MoS₂, few layered nanoflakes) in mesoporous-Titanium dioxide (mp-TiO₂)scaffold electron transport buffer layer, and using poly 3-hexytheophene (P3HT) as hole transport layers. The PSCs were fabricated in ambient air conditions in device configuration, FTO/c-TiO₂/mp-TiO₂:2D-MoS₂/CH3NH3PbI3/P3HT/Au, with an active area of 0.16 cm². The best device using c-TiO₂/mp-TiO₂:2D-MoS₂ (0.5wt.%) ETL exhibited a substantial increase in PCE ~13.04% as compared to PCE ~8.75% realized in reference device fabricated without incorporating MoS₂ in mp-TiO₂ buffer layer. The incorporation of MoS₂ nanoflakes in mp-TiO₂ ETL not only enhances the PCE to ~49% but also leads to better device stability in ambient air conditions without encapsulation (retaining PCE ~86% of its initial value up to 500 hrs), as compared to ETLs without MoS₂.

Keywords: perovskite solar cells, MoS₂, nanoflakes, electron transport layer

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Authors: Juhi Faridi, Mohd. Ajmal Kafeel

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The advancements in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technology has led to an evolution of an intelligent era. Neural networks, having the computational power and learning ability similar to the brain is one of the key AI technologies. Neuromorphic computing system (NCS) consists of the synaptic device, neuronal circuit, and neuromorphic architecture. Memristor are a promising candidate for neuromorphic computing systems, but when it comes to neuromorphic computing, the conductance behavior of the synaptic memristor or neuronal memristor needs to be studied thoroughly in order to fathom the neuroscience or computer science. Furthermore, there is a need of more simulation work for utilizing the existing device properties and providing guidance to the development of future devices for different performance requirements. Hence, development of NCS needs more simulation work to make use of existing device properties. This work aims to provide an insight to build neuronal circuits using memristors to achieve a Memristor based NCS.  Here we throw a light on the research conducted in the field of memristors for building analog and digital circuits in order to motivate the research in the field of NCS by building memristor based neural circuits for advanced AI applications. This literature is a step in the direction where we describe the various Key findings about memristors and its analog and digital circuits implemented over the years which can be further utilized in implementing the neuronal circuits in the NCS. This work aims to help the electronic circuit designers to understand how the research progressed in memristors and how these findings can be used in implementing the neuronal circuits meant for the recent progress in the NCS.

Keywords: analog circuits, digital circuits, memristors, neuromorphic computing systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Roberta Mugellesi Dow

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As the climate crisis becomes unignorable, it is imperative that new services are developed addressing not only the needs of customers but also taking into account its impact on the environment. The Telecommunication and Integrated Application (TIA) Directorate of ESA is supporting the green transition with particular attention to the sustainable mobility.“Accelerating the shift to sustainable and smart mobility” is at the core of the European Green Deal strategy, which seeks a 90% reduction in related emissions by 2050 . Transforming the way that people and goods move is essential to increasing mobility while decreasing environmental impact, and transport must be considered holistically to produce a shared vision of green intermodal mobility. The use of space technologies, integrated with terrestrial technologies, is an enabler of smarter traffic management and increased transport efficiency for automated and connected multimodal mobility. Satellite connectivity, including future 5G networks, and digital technologies such as Digital Twin, AI, Machine Learning, and cloud-based applications are key enablers of sustainable mobility.SatCom is essential to ensure that connectivity is ubiquitously available, even in remote and rural areas, or in case of a failure, by the convergence of terrestrial and SatCom connectivity networks, This is especially crucial when there are risks of network failures or cyber-attacks targeting terrestrial communication. SatCom ensures communication network robustness and resilience. The combination of terrestrial and satellite communication networks is making possible intelligent and ubiquitous V2X systems and PNT services with significantly enhanced reliability and security, hyper-fast wireless access, as well as much seamless communication coverage. SatNav is essential in providing accurate tracking and tracing capabilities for automated vehicles and in guiding them to target locations. SatNav can also enable location-based services like car sharing applications, parking assistance, and fare payment. In addition to GNSS receivers, wireless connections, radar, lidar, and other installed sensors can enable automated vehicles to monitor surroundings, to ‘talk to each other’ and with infrastructure in real-time, and to respond to changes instantaneously. SatEO can be used to provide the maps required by the traffic management, as well as evaluate the conditions on the ground, assess changes and provide key data for monitoring and forecasting air pollution and other important parameters. Earth Observation derived data are used to provide meteorological information such as wind speed and direction, humidity, and others that must be considered into models contributing to traffic management services. The paper will provide examples of services and applications that have been developed aiming to identify innovative solutions and new business models that are allowed by new digital technologies engaging space and non space ecosystem together to deliver value and providing innovative, greener solutions in the mobility sector. Examples include Connected Autonomous Vehicles, electric vehicles, green logistics, and others. For the technologies relevant are the hybrid satcom and 5G providing ubiquitous coverage, IoT integration with non space technologies, as well as navigation, PNT technology, and other space data.

Keywords: sustainability, connectivity, mobility, satellites

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Sung Uk Park, Young Su Kang, Sangmo Kang, Young Kweon Suh

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Mineral product, waste concrete (fine aggregates), waste in the optical field, industry, and construction employ separators to separate solids and classify them according to their size. Various sorting machines are used in the industrial field such as those operating under electrical properties, centrifugal force, wind power, vibration, and magnetic force. Study on separators has been carried out to contribute to the environmental industry. In this study, we perform CFD analysis for understanding the basic mechanism of the separation of waste concrete (fine aggregate) particles from air with a machine built with a rotor with blades. In CFD, we first performed two-dimensional particle tracking for various particle sizes for the model with 1 degree, 1.5 degree, and 2 degree angle between each blade to verify the boundary conditions and the method of rotating domain method to be used in 3D. Then we developed 3D numerical model with ANSYS CFX to calculate the air flow and track the particles. We judged the capability of particle separation for given size by counting the number of particles escaping from the domain toward the exit among 10 particles issued at the inlet. We confirm that particles experience stagnant behavior near the exit of the rotating blades where the centrifugal force acting on the particles is in balance with the air drag force. It was also found that the minimum particle size that can be separated by the machine with the rotor is determined by its capability to stay at the outlet of the rotor channels.

Keywords: environmental industry, separator, CFD, fine aggregate

Procedia PDF Downloads 591

Authors: S. N. C. M. Dias, Niels Schuetze, Franz Lennartz

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The current focus in irrigated agriculture will move from maximizing crop production per unit area towards maximizing the crop production per unit amount of water (water productivity) used. At the same time, inadequate water supply or deficit irrigation will be the only solution to cope with water scarcity in the near future. Soil matric potential based irrigation plays an important role in such deficit irrigated agriculture to grow any crop including rice. Rice as the staple food for more than half of the world population, grows mainly under flooded conditions. It requires more water compared to other upland cereals. A major amount of this water is used in the land preparation and is lost at field level due to evaporation, deep percolation, and seepage. A field experimental study was conducted in the experimental premises of rice research and development institute of Sri Lanka in Kurunegala district to estimate the water productivity of rice under deficit irrigation. This paper presents the feasibility of improving current irrigation management in rice cultivation under water scarce conditions. The experiment was laid out in a randomized complete block design with four different irrigation treatments with three replicates. Irrigation treatments were based on soil matric potential threshold values. Treatment W0 was maintained between 60-80mbars. W1 was maintained between 80-100mbars. Other two dry treatments W2 and W3 were maintained at 100-120 mbar and 120 -140 mbar respectively. The sprinkler system was used to irrigate each plot individually upon reaching the maximum threshold value in respective treatment. Treatments were imposed two weeks after seed establishment and continued until two weeks before physiological maturity. Fertilizer applications, weed management, and other management practices were carried out per the local recommendations. Weekly plant growth measurements, daily climate parameters, soil parameters, soil tension values, and water content were measured throughout the growing period. Highest plant growth and grain yield (5.61t/ha) were observed in treatment W2 followed by W0, W1, and W3 in comparison to the reference yield (5.23t/ha) of flooded rice grown in the study area. Water productivity was highest in W3. Concerning the irrigation water savings, grain yield, and water productivity together, W2 showed the better performance. Rice grown under unsaturated conditions (W2) shows better performance compared to the continuously saturated conditions(W0). In conclusion, soil matric potential based irrigation is a promising practice in irrigation management in rice. Higher irrigation water savings can be achieved in this method. This strategy can be applied to a wide range of locations under different climates and soils. In future studies, higher soil matric potential values can be applied to evaluate the maximum possible values for rice to get higher water savings at minimum yield losses.

Keywords: irrigation, matric potential, rice, water scarcity

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Hai L. Tran

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In the digital age, evidence-based reporting is touted as a best practice for seeking the truth and keeping the public well-informed. Journalists are expected to rely on evidence to demonstrate the validity of a factual statement and lend credence to an individual account. Evidence can be obtained from various sources, and due to a rich supply of evidence types available, the definition of this important concept varies semantically. To promote clarity and understanding, it is necessary to break down the various types of evidence and categorize them in a more coherent, systematic way. There is a wide array of devices that digital journalists deploy as proof to back up or refute a truth claim. Evidence can take various formats, including verbal and visual materials. Verbal evidence encompasses quotes, soundbites, talking heads, testimonies, voice recordings, anecdotes, and statistics communicated through written or spoken language. There are instances where evidence is simply non-verbal, such as when natural sounds are provided without any verbalized words. On the other hand, other language-free items exhibited in photos, video footage, data visualizations, infographics, and illustrations can serve as visual evidence. Moreover, there are different sources from which evidence can be cited. Supporting materials, such as public or leaked records and documents, data, research studies, surveys, polls, or reports compiled by governments, organizations, and other entities, are frequently included as informational evidence. Proof can also come from human sources via interviews, recorded conversations, public and private gatherings, or press conferences. Expert opinions, eye-witness insights, insider observations, and official statements are some of the common examples of testimonial evidence. Digital journalism studies tend to make broad references when comparing qualitative versus quantitative forms of evidence. Meanwhile, limited efforts are being undertaken to distinguish between sister terms, such as “data,” “statistical,” and “base-rate” on one side of the spectrum and “narrative,” “anecdotal,” and “exemplar” on the other. The present study seeks to develop the evidence taxonomy, which classifies evidence through the quantitative-qualitative juxtaposition and in a hierarchical order from broad to specific. According to this scheme, data, statistics, and base rate belong to the quantitative evidence group, whereas narrative, anecdote, and exemplar fall into the qualitative evidence group. Subsequently, the taxonomical classification arranges data versus narrative at the top of the hierarchy of types of evidence, followed by statistics versus anecdote and base rate versus exemplar. This research reiterates the central role of evidence in how journalists describe and explain social phenomena and issues. By defining the various types of evidence and delineating their logical connections it helps remove a significant degree of conceptual inconsistency, ambiguity, and confusion in digital journalism studies.

Keywords: evidence, evidence forms, evidence types, taxonomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Jeffrey A. Humenik

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Environmental, Limited Liability Corporation (EMR) provided civil construction services to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District, for the placement of a protective riprap blanket on the west bank of the Smoky Hill River, construction of 2 shore abutments and the construction of a 140 foot long sill wall spanning the Smoky Hill River in Salina, Kansas. The purpose of the project was to protect the riverbank from erosion and hold back water to a specified elevation, creating a pool to ensure adequate water intake for the municipal water supply. Geotextile matting and riprap were installed for streambank erosion protection. An inflatable bladder (AquaDam®) was designed to the specific river dimension and installed to divert the river and allow for dewatering during the construction of the sill walls and cofferdam. AquaDam® consists of water filled polyethylene tubes to create aqua barriers and divert water flow or prevent flooding. A challenge of the project was the fact that 100% of the sill wall was constructed within an active river channel. The threat of flooding of the work area, damage to the aqua dam by debris, and potential difficulty of water removal presented a unique set of challenges to the construction team. Upon completion of the West Sill Wall, floating debris punctured the AquaDam®. The manufacturing and delivery of a new AquaDam® would delay project completion by at least 6 weeks. To keep the project ahead of schedule, the decision was made to construct an earthen cofferdam reinforced with rip rap for the construction of the East Abutment and East Sill Wall section. During construction of the west sill wall section, a deep scour hole was encountered in the wall alignment that prevented EMR from using the natural rock formation as a concrete form for the lower section of the sill wall. A formwork system was constructed, that allowed the west sill wall section to be placed in two horizontal lifts of concrete poured on separate occasions. The first sectional lift was poured to fill in the scour hole and act as a footing for the second sectional lift. Concrete wall forms were set on the first lift and anchored to the surrounding riverbed in a manner that the second lift was poured in a similar fashion as a basement wall. EMR’s timely decision to keep the project moving toward completion in the face of changing conditions enabled project completion two (2) months ahead of schedule. The use of inflatable bladders is an effective and cost-efficient technology to divert river flow during construction. However, a secondary plan should be part of project design in the event debris transported by river punctures or damages the bladders.

Keywords: abutment, AquaDam®, riverbed, scour

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Yakui Bai, Chen Sun, Ke Wang

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An experimental investigation of environmental effect on fatigue behavior in SA508 Gr.3 Cl.2 Steam Generator Forging CAP1400 nuclear power plant has been carried out. In order to simulate actual loading condition, a range of strain amplitude was applied in different low cycle fatigue (LCF) tests. The current American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) design fatigue code does not take full account of the interactions of environmental, loading, and material's factors. A range of strain amplitude was applied in different low cycle fatigue (LCF) tests at a strain rate of 0.01%s⁻¹. A design fatigue model was constructed by taking environmentally assisted fatigue effects into account, and the corresponding design curves were given for the convenience of engineering applications. The corrosion fatigue experiment was performed in a strain control mode in 320℃ borated and lithiated water environment to evaluate the effects of a mixed environment on fatigue life. Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) in steam generator large forging in primary water of pressurized water reactor was also observed. In addition, it is found that the CF life of SA508 Gr.3 Cl.2 decreases with increasing temperature in the water environment. The relationship between the reciprocal of temperature and the logarithm of fatigue life was found to be linear. Through experiments and subsequent analysis, the mechanisms of reduced low cycle fatigue life have been investigated for steam generator forging.

Keywords: failure behavior, low alloy steel, steam generator forging, stress corrosion cracking

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Pavel V. Balabanov, Daria A. Liubimova, Aleksandr P. Savenkov

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The increase of technogenic and natural accidents, accompanied by air pollution, for example, by combustion products, leads to the necessity of respiratory protection. This work is devoted to the development of a calorimetric method and a device which allow investigating quickly the kinetics of carbon dioxide sorption by chemo-sorbents on the base of potassium superoxide in order to assess the protective properties of respiratory protective closed-circuit apparatus. The features of the traditional approach for determining the sorption properties in a thin layer of chemo-sorbent are described, as well as methods and devices, which can be used for the sorption kinetics study. The authors of the paper developed an approach (as opposed to the traditional approach) based on the power measurement of internal heat sources in the chemo-sorbent layer. The emergence of the heat sources is a result of the exothermic reaction of carbon dioxide sorption. This approach eliminates the necessity of chemical analysis of samples and can significantly reduce the time and material expenses during chemo-sorbents testing. The error of determining the volume fraction of adsorbed carbon dioxide by the developed method does not exceed 12%. Taking into account the efficiency of the method, we consider that it is a good alternative to traditional methods of chemical analysis under the assessment of the protection sorbents quality.

Keywords: carbon dioxide chemisorption, exothermic reaction, internal heat sources, respiratory protective apparatus

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: Jeni A. Popescu, Sorin G. Tomescu, Valeriu A. Vilag

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The paper focuses on the potential methods of increasing the performance of a microturbine by combining additional elements available for utilization in a cogeneration plant. The activity is carried out within the framework of a project aiming to develop, manufacture and test a microturbine functional model with high potential in energetic industry utilization. The main goal of the analysis is to determine the parameters of the fluid flow passing through each section of the turbine, based on limited data available in literature for the focus output power range or provided by experimental studies, starting from a reference cycle, and considering different cycle options, including simple, intercooled and recuperated options, in order to optimize a small cogeneration plant operation. The studied configurations operate under the same initial thermodynamic conditions and are based on a series of assumptions, in terms of individual performance of the components, pressure/velocity losses, compression ratios, and efficiencies. The thermodynamic analysis evaluates the expected performance of the microturbine cycle, while providing a series of input data and limitations to be included in the development of the experimental plan. To simplify the calculations and to allow a clear estimation of the effect of heat transfer between fluids, the working fluid for all the thermodynamic evolutions is, initially, air, the combustion being modelled by simple heat addition to the system. The theoretical results, along with preliminary experimental results are presented, aiming for a correlation in terms of microturbine performance.

Keywords: cogeneration, microturbine, performance, thermodynamic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Chen Zhang, Nan Chen

Abstract:

High-dimensional process monitoring becomes increasingly important in many application domains, where usually the process distribution is unknown and much more complicated than the normal distribution, and the between-stream correlation can not be neglected. However, since the process dimension is generally much bigger than the reference sample size, most traditional nonparametric multivariate control charts fail in high-dimensional cases due to the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, when the process goes out of control, the influenced variables are quite sparse compared with the whole dimension, which increases the detection difficulty. Targeting at these issues, this paper proposes a new nonparametric monitoring scheme for high-dimensional processes. This scheme first projects the high-dimensional process into several subprocesses using random projections for dimension reduction. Then, for every subprocess with the dimension much smaller than the reference sample size, a local nonparametric control chart is constructed based on the spatial rank test to detect changes in this subprocess. Finally, the results of all the local charts are fused together for decision. Furthermore, after an out-of-control (OC) alarm is triggered, a diagnostic framework is proposed. using the square-root LASSO. Numerical studies demonstrate that the chart has satisfactory detection power for sparse OC changes and robust performance for non-normally distributed data, The diagnostic framework is also effective to identify truly changed variables. Finally, a real-data example is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

Keywords: random projection, high-dimensional process control, spatial rank, sequential change detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Doug Specht

Abstract:

This research project sought to explore the links between digital media, PGIS and social movement organisations in Tolima, Colombia. The primary aim of the research was to examine how knowledge is created and disseminated through digital media and GIS in the region, and whether there exists the infrastructure to allow for this. The second strand was to ascertain if this has had a significant impact on the way grassroots movements work and produce collective actions. The third element is a hypothesis about how digital media and PGIS could play a larger role in activist activities, particularly in reference to the extractive industries. Three theoretical strands have been brought together to provide a basis for this research, namely (a) the politics of knowledge, (b) spatial management and inclusion, and (c) digital media and political engagement. Quantitative data relating to digital media and mobile internet use was collated alongside qualitative data relating to the likelihood of using digital media in activist campaigns, with particular attention being given to grassroots movements working against extractive industries in the Tolima region of Colombia. Through interviews, surveys and GIS analysis it has been possible to build a picture of online activism and the role of PPGIS within protest movement in the region of Tolima, Colombia. Results show a gap between the desires of social movements to use digital media and the skills and finances required to implement programs that utilise it. Maps and GIS are generally reserved for legal cases rather than for informing the lay person. However, it became apparent that the combination of digital/social media and PPGIS could play a significant role in supporting the work of grassroots movements.

Keywords: PGIS, GIS, social media, digital media, mining, colombia, social movements, protest

Procedia PDF Downloads 424