Search results for: in africa
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1923

Search results for: in africa

1233 Uncertainty and Volatility in Middle East and North Africa Stock Market during the Arab Spring

Authors: Ameen Alshugaa, Abul Mansur Masih

Abstract:

This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of political uncertainty caused by the civil uprisings that swept the Arab World and have been collectively known as the Arab Spring. Measuring documented effects of political uncertainty on regional stock market indices, we examine the impact of the Arab Spring on the volatility of stock markets in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Egypt, Lebanon, Jordon, United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. This analysis also permits testing the existence of financial contagion among equity markets in the MENA region during the Arab Spring. To capture the time-varying and multi-horizon nature of the evidence of volatility and contagion in the eight MENA stock markets, we apply two robust methodologies on consecutive data from November 2008 to March 2014: MGARCH-DCC, Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT). Our results indicate two key findings. First, the discrepancies between volatile stock markets of countries directly impacted by the Arab Spring and countries that were not directly impacted indicate that international investors may still enjoy portfolio diversification and investment in MENA markets. Second, the lack of financial contagion during the Arab Spring suggests that there is little evidence of cointegration among MENA markets. Providing a general analysis of the economic situation and the investment climate in the MENA region during and after the Arab Spring, this study bear significant importance for policy makers, local and international investors, and market regulators.

Keywords: Portfolio Diversification , MENA Region , Stock Market Indices, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelet Analysis, CWT

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1232 Entrepreneurial Orientation and Innovation Outcomes in Ghanaian Social Enterprises: Interaction Effect of Organizational Unlearning

Authors: Stephen Oduro

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With a quantitative research design, this study seeks to analyze how, an intangible resource, Organisational Unlearning shapes the relationship between Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) and Innovation Outcomes among social entrepreneurship organizations in Ghana. The Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm and EO-Performance Contingency framework was adopted as the underpinning theories of the study. Entrepreneurial Orientation dimensions, namely Innovativeness, Autonomy, Risk-Taking, Proactiveness, and Competitive aggressiveness were examined to determine its significant, direct influence on the Innovation Outcomes of the social enterprises in Ghana. Organizational Unlearning dimensions, specifically examination of lens fitting, the consolidation of emergent understandings, and framework for changing individual habits were explored to determine whether they strengthen or weaken the direct nexus between Entrepreneurial Orientation dimensions and Innovation Outcomes. A self-administered questionnaire was administered to 556 targeted social enterprises across Africa through online questionnaire platform and the data generated and proposed hypotheses were analyzed and tested using Structural Equation Model-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS 3) statistical tool. The findings revealed that EO dimensions, specifically proactiveness, autonomy, innovativeness, and risk-taking are positively related to IO, but we found no significant support for competitive aggressiveness. The findings, moreover, divulged that the positive, direct relationship between EO and IO is highly strengthened by OU. It is concluded that OU fully moderates the direct link between EO and IO. The present study contributes to the our understanding of the interrelationship among Entrepreneurial Orientation, Organizational Unlearning, and Innovation Outcomes in the social entrepreneurship context.

Keywords: entrepreneurial orientation, innovation outcomes, organizational unlearning, RBV, SEM-PLS, social enterprise, Africa

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1231 Impact of Covid-19 on Digital Transformation

Authors: Tebogo Sethibe, Jabulile Mabuza

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been commonly referred to as a ‘black swan event’; it has changed the world, from how people live, learn, work and socialise. It is believed that the pandemic has fast-tracked the adoption of technology in many organisations to ensure business continuity and business sustainability; broadly said, the pandemic has fast-tracked digital transformation (DT) in different organisations. This paper aims to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on DT in organisations in South Africa by focusing on the changes in IT capabilities in the DT framework. The research design is qualitative. The data collection was through semi-structured interviews with information communication technology (ICT) leaders representing different organisations in South Africa. The data were analysed using the thematic analysis process. The results from the study show that, in terms of ICT in the organisation, the pandemic had a direct and positive impact on ICT strategy and ICT operations. In terms of IT capability transformation, the pandemic resulted in the optimisation and expansion of existing IT capabilities in the organisation and the building of new IT capabilities to meet emerging business needs. In terms of the focus of activities during the pandemic, there seems to be a split in organisations between the primary focus being on ‘digital IT’ or ‘traditional IT’. Overall, the findings of the study show that the pandemic had a positive and significant impact on DT in organisations. However, a definitive conclusion on this would require expanding the scope of the research to all the components of a comprehensive DT framework. This study is significant because it is one of the first studies to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on organisations, on ICT in the organisation, on IT capability transformation and, to a greater extent, DT. The findings from the study show that in response to the pandemic, there is a need for: (i) agility in organisations; (ii) organisations to execute on their existing strategy; (iii) the future-proofing of IT capabilities; (iv) the adoption of a hybrid working model; and for (v) organisations to take risks and embrace new ideas.

Keywords: digital transformation, COVID-19, bimodal-IT, digital transformation framework

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1230 Evaluation of Heavy Metal Contamination and Assessment of the Suitability of Water for Irrigation: A Case Study of the Sand River, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Authors: Ngonidzashe Moyo, Mmaditshaba Rapatsa

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The primary objective of this study was to determine heavy metal contamination in the water, sediment, grass and fish in Sand River, South Africa. This river passes through an urban area and sewage effluent is discharged into it. Water from the Sand river is subsequently used for irrigation downstream of the sewage treatment works. The suitability of this water and the surrounding boreholes for irrigation was determined. This study was undertaken between January, 2014 and January, 2015. Monthly samples were taken from four sites. Sites 1 was upstream of the Polokwane Wastewater Treatment Plant, sites 2, 3 and 4 were downstream. Ten boreholes in the vicinity of the Sand River were randomly selected and the water was tested for heavy metal contamination. The concentration of heavy metals in Sand River water followed the order Mn>Fe>Pb>Cu≥Zn≥Cd. Manganese concentration averaged 0.34 mg/L. Heavy metal concentration in the sediment, grass and fish followed the order Fe>Mn>Zn>Cu>Pb>Cd. The bioaccumulation factor from grass to fish was highest in manganese (19.25), followed by zinc (16.39) and iron (14.14). Soil permeability index (PI) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) were used to determine the suitability of Sand River and borehole water for irrigation. The PI index for Sand River water was 75.1% and this indicates that Sand River water is suitable for irrigation of crops. The PI index for the borehole water ranged from 65.8-72.8% and again this indicates suitability of borehole water for crop irrigation. The sodium adsorption ratio also indicated that both Sand River and borehole water were suitable for irrigation. A risk assessment study is recommended to determine the suitability of the fish for human consumption.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, bioavailability, heavy metals, sodium adsorption ratio

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1229 Social Value of Travel Time Savings in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors: Richard Sogah

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The significance of transport infrastructure investments for economic growth and development has been central to the World Bank’s strategy for poverty reduction. Among the conventional surface transport infrastructures, road infrastructure is significant in facilitating the movement of human capital goods and services. When transport projects (i.e., roads, super-highways) are implemented, they come along with some negative social values (costs), such as increased noise and air pollution for local residents living near these facilities, displaced individuals, etc. However, these projects also facilitate better utilization of existing capital stock and generate other observable benefits that can be easily quantified. For example, the improvement or construction of roads creates employment, stimulates revenue generation (toll), reduces vehicle operating costs and accidents, increases accessibility, trade expansion, safety improvement, etc. Aside from these benefits, travel time savings (TTSs) which are the major economic benefits of urban and inter-urban transport projects and therefore integral in the economic assessment of transport projects, are often overlooked and omitted when estimating the benefits of transport projects, especially in developing countries. The absence of current and reliable domestic travel data and the inability of replicated models from the developed world to capture the actual value of travel time savings due to the large unemployment, underemployment, and other labor-induced distortions has contributed to the failure to assign value to travel time savings when estimating the benefits of transport schemes in developing countries. This omission of the value of travel time savings from the benefits of transport projects in developing countries poses problems for investors and stakeholders to either accept or dismiss projects based on schemes that favor reduced vehicular operating costs and other parameters rather than those that ease congestion, increase average speed, facilitate walking and handloading, and thus save travel time. Given the complex reality in the estimation of the value of travel time savings and the presence of widespread informal labour activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, we construct a “nationally ranked distribution of time values” and estimate the value of travel time savings based on the area beneath the distribution. Compared with other approaches, our method captures both formal sector workers and individuals/people who work outside the formal sector and hence changes in their time allocation occur in the informal economy and household production activities. The dataset for the estimations is sourced from the World Bank, the International Labour Organization, etc.

Keywords: road infrastructure, transport projects, travel time savings, congestion, Sub-Sahara Africa

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1228 Nursing Documentation of Patients' Information at Selected Primary Health Care Facilities in Limpopo Province, South Africa: Implications for Professional Practice

Authors: Maria Sonto Maputle, Rhulani C. Shihundla, Rachel T. Lebese

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Background: Patients’ information must be complete and accurately documented in order to foster quality and continuity of care. The multidisciplinary health care members use patients’ documentation to communicate about health status, preventive health services, treatment, planning and delivery of care. The purpose of this study was to determine the practice of nursing documentation of patients’ information at selected Primary Health Care (PHC) facilities in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Methods: The research approach adopted was qualitative while exploratory and descriptive design was used. The study was conducted at selected PHC facilities. Population included twelve professional nurses. Non-probability purposive sampling method was used to sample professional nurses who were willing to participate in the study. The criteria included participants’ whose daily work and activities, involved creating, keeping and updating nursing documentation of patients’ information. Qualitative data collection was through unstructured in-depth interviews until no new information emerged. Data were analysed through open–coding of, Tesch’s eight steps method. Results: Following data analysis, it was found that professional nurses’ had knowledge deficit related to insufficient training on updates and rendering multiple services daily had negative impact on accurate documentation of patients’ information. Conclusion: The study recommended standardization of registers, books and forms used at PHC facilities, and reorganization of PHC services into open day system.

Keywords: documentation, knowledge, patient care, patient’s information, training

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1227 Transition From Economic Growth-Energy Use to Green Growth-Green Energy Towards Environmental Quality: Evidence from Africa Using Econometric Approaches

Authors: Jackson Niyongabo

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This study addresses a notable gap in the existing literature on the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions, particularly within the African context. While numerous studies have explored these dynamics globally and regionally across various development levels, few have delved into the nuances of regions and income levels specific to African countries. Furthermore, the evaluation of the interplay between green growth policies, green energy technologies, and their impact on environmental quality has been underexplored. This research aims to fill these gaps by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the transition from conventional economic growth and energy consumption to a paradigm of green growth coupled with green energy utilization across the African continent from 1980 to 2018. The study is structured into three main parts: an empirical examination of the long-term effects of energy intensity, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions across diverse African regions and income levels; an estimation of the long-term impact of green growth and green energy use on CO₂ emissions for countries implementing green policies within Africa, as well as at regional and global levels; and a comparative analysis of the impact of green growth policies on environmental degradation before and after implementation. Employing advanced econometric methods and panel estimators, the study utilizes a testing framework, panel unit tests, and various estimators to derive meaningful insights. The anticipated results and conclusions will be elucidated through causality tests, impulse response, and variance decomposition analyses, contributing valuable knowledge to the discourse on sustainable development in the African context.

Keywords: economic growth, green growth, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, econometric models, green energy

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1226 A Two Arm Double Parallel Randomized Controlled Trail of the Effects of Health Education Intervention on Insecticide Treated Nets Use and Its Practices among Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Clinic: Study Protocol

Authors: Opara Monica, Suriani Ismail, Ahmad Iqmer Nashriq Mohd Nazan

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The true magnitude of the mortality and morbidity attributable to malaria worldwide is, at best, a scientific guess, although it is not disputable that the greatest burden is in sub-Saharan Africa. Those at highest risk are children younger than 5 years and pregnant women, particularly primigravidae. Nationally, malaria remains the third leading cause of death and is still considered a major public health problem. Therefore, this study is aimed to assess the effectiveness of health education intervention on insecticide-treated net use and its practices among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics. Materials and Methods: This study will be an intervention study with two arms double parallel randomized controlled trial (blinded) to be conducted in 3 stages. The first stage will develop health belief model (HBM) program, while in the second stage, pregnant women will be recruited, assessed (baseline data), randomized into two arms of the study, and follow-up for six months. The third stage will evaluate the impact of the intervention on HBM and disseminate the findings. Data will be collected with the use of a structured questionnaire which will contain validated tools. The main outcome measurement will be the treatment effect using HBM, while data will be analysed using SPSS, version 22. Discussion: The study will contribute to the existing knowledge on hospital-based care programs for pregnant women in developing countries where the literature is scanty. It will generally give insight into the importance of HBM measurement in interventional studies on malaria and other related infectious diseases in this setting.

Keywords: malaria, health education, insecticide-treated nets, sub-Saharan Africa

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1225 Transgender Practices as Queer Politics: African a Variant

Authors: Adekeye Joshua Temitope

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“Transgender” presents a complexion of ambiguity in the African context and it remains a contested topography in the discourse of sexual identity. The casts and stigmatisations towards transgender unveils vital facts and intricacies often ignored in the academic communities; the problems and oppressions of given sex/gender system, the constrain of monogamy and ignorance of fluidity of human sexuality thereby generating dual discords of “enforced heterosexual” and “unavoidable homosexual.” The African culture voids transgender movements and perceive same-sex sexual behavior as “taboo or bad habits” and this provide reasonable explanations for the failure of asserting for the sexual rights in GLBT movement in most discourse on sexuality in the African context. However, we could not deny the real existence of active flowing and fluidity of human sexuality even though its variants could be latent. The incessant consciousness of the existence of transgender practices in Africa either in form of bisexual desire or bisexual behavior with or without sexual identity, including people who identify themselves as bisexual opens up the vision for us to reconsider and reexamine what constitutes such ambiguity and controversy of transgender identity at present time. The notion of identity politics in gay, lesbian, and transgender community has its complexity and debates in its historical development. This paper analyses the representation of the historical trajectory of transgender practices by presenting the dynamic transition of how people cognize transgender practices under different historical conditions since the understanding of historical transition of bisexual practices would be very crucial and meaningful for gender/sexuality liberation movement at present time and in the future. The paper did a juxtaposition of the trajectories of bisexual practices between Anglo-American world and Africa, as it has certain similarities and differences within diverse historical complexities. The similar condition is the emergence of gay identity under the influence of capitalism but within different cultural context. Therefore, the political economy of each cultural context plays very important role in understanding the formation of sexual identities historically and its development and influence for the GLBT movement afterwards and in the future. By reexamining Kinsey’s categorization and applying Klein’s argument on individual’s sexual orientation this paper is poised to break the given and fixed connection among sexual behavior/sexual orientation/sexual identity, on the other hand to present the potential fluidity of human sexuality by reconsidering and reexamining the present given sex/gender system in our world. The paper concludes that it is obligatory for the essentialist and exclusionary trend at this historical moment since gay and lesbian communities in Africa need to clearly demonstrate and voice for themselves under the nuances of gender/sexuality liberation.

Keywords: heterosexual, homosexual, identity politics, queer politics, transgender

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1224 Exploring the Use of Schoolgrounds for the Integration of Environmental and Sustainability Education in Natural and Social Sciences Pedagogy: A Case Study

Authors: Headman Hebe, Arnold Taringa

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Background of the study: The benefits derived from Environmental and Sustainability Education (ESE) go beyond obtaining knowledge about the environment and the impact of human beings on the environment. Hence, it is sensible to expose learners to various resources that could enable meaningful environment-inclined pedagogy. The schoolgrounds, where they are utilised to promote ESE, benefit holistic learner development. However, empirical evidence, globally, suggests that young children’s contact with nature is declining due to urbanization, safety concerns by parents/guardians, and greater dependency on technology. Modern children spend much time on videogames and social media with very little time in the natural environment. Furthermore, national education departments in numerous countries have made tangible efforts to embed environmental and place-based learning to their school curricula. South Africa is one of those countries whose national school education curriculum advocates for ESE in pedagogy. Nevertheless, there is paucity of research conducted in South Africa on schoolgrounds as potential enablers of ESE and tools to foster a connection between youngsters and the natural environment. Accordingly, this study was essential as it seeks to determine the extent to which environmental learning is accommodated in pedagogy. Significantly, it investigates efforts made to use schoolgrounds for pedagogical purposes to connect children with the natural environment. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the accessibility and use of schoolgrounds for environment-inclined pedagogy in Natural and Social Sciences in two schools located in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa. It tries to answer the question: To what extent are schoolgrounds used to promote environmental and sustainability education in the selected schools?The sub-questions: How do teachers and learners perceive the use of schoolgrounds for environmental and sustainability education activities? How does the organization of schoolgrounds offer opportunities for environmental education activities and accessibility for learners? Research method: This qualitative–interpretive case study used purposive and convenient sampling for participant selection. Forty-six respondents: 40 learners (twenty grade 7 learners per school), 2 school principals and 4 grade 7 participated in this study. Data collection tools were observations, interviews, audio-visual recordings and questionnaires while data analysis was done thematically. Major findings: The findings of the study point to: The lack of teacher training and infrastructure in the schoolgrounds and, no administrative support. Unclear curriculum guidelines on the use of schoolgrounds for ESE. The availability various elements in the schoolgrounds that could aid ESE activities. Learners denied access to certain parts of the schoolgrounds. Lack of time and curriculum demands constrain teachers from using schoolgrounds.

Keywords: affordances, environment and sustainability education, experiential learning, schoolgrounds

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1223 Geospatial Curve Fitting Methods for Disease Mapping of Tuberculosis in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege

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To interpolate scattered or regularly distributed data, there are imprecise or exact methods. However, there are some of these methods that could be used for interpolating data in a regular grid and others in an irregular grid. In spatial epidemiology, it is important to examine how a disease prevalence rates are distributed in space, and how they relate with each other within a defined distance and direction. In this study, for the geographic and graphic representation of the disease prevalence, linear and biharmonic spline methods were implemented in MATLAB, and used to identify, localize and compare for smoothing in the distribution patterns of tuberculosis (TB) in Eastern Cape Province. The aim of this study is to produce a more “smooth” graphical disease map for TB prevalence patterns by a 3-D curve fitting techniques, especially the biharmonic splines that can suppress noise easily, by seeking a least-squares fit rather than exact interpolation. The datasets are represented generally as a 3D or XYZ triplets, where X and Y are the spatial coordinates and Z is the variable of interest and in this case, TB counts in the province. This smoothing spline is a method of fitting a smooth curve to a set of noisy observations using a spline function, and it has also become the conventional method for its high precision, simplicity and flexibility. Surface and contour plots are produced for the TB prevalence at the provincial level for 2012 – 2015. From the results, the general outlook of all the fittings showed a systematic pattern in the distribution of TB cases in the province and this is consistent with some spatial statistical analyses carried out in the province. This new method is rarely used in disease mapping applications, but it has a superior advantage to be assessed at subjective locations rather than only on a rectangular grid as seen in most traditional GIS methods of geospatial analyses.

Keywords: linear, biharmonic splines, tuberculosis, South Africa

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1222 Design Thinking and Project-Based Learning: Opportunities, Challenges, and Possibilities

Authors: Shoba Rathilal

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High unemployment rates and a shortage of experienced and qualified employees appear to be a paradox that currently plagues most countries worldwide. In a developing country like South Africa, the rate of unemployment is reported to be approximately 35%, the highest recorded globally. At the same time, a countrywide deficit in experienced and qualified potential employees is reported in South Africa, which is causing fierce rivalry among firms. Employers have reported that graduates are very rarely able to meet the demands of the job as there are gaps in their knowledge and conceptual understanding and other 21st-century competencies, attributes, and dispositions required to successfully negotiate the multiple responsibilities of employees in organizations. In addition, the rates of unemployment and suitability of graduates appear to be skewed by race and social class, the continued effects of a legacy of inequitable educational access. Higher Education in the current technologically advanced and dynamic world needs to serve as an agent of transformation, aspiring to develop graduates to be creative, flexible, critical, and with entrepreneurial acumen. This requires that higher education curricula and pedagogy require a re-envisioning of our selection, sequencing, and pacing of the learning, teaching, and assessment. At a particular Higher education Institution in South Africa, Design Thinking and Project Based learning are being adopted as two approaches that aim to enhance the student experience through the provision of a “distinctive education” that brings together disciplinary knowledge, professional engagement, technology, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Using these methodologies forces the students to solve real-time applied problems using various forms of knowledge and finding innovative solutions that can result in new products and services. The intention is to promote the development of skills for self-directed learning, facilitate the development of self-awareness, and contribute to students being active partners in the application and production of knowledge. These approaches emphasize active and collaborative learning, teamwork, conflict resolution, and problem-solving through effective integration of theory and practice. In principle, both these approaches are extremely impactful. However, at the institution in this study, the implementation of the PBL and DT was not as “smooth” as anticipated. This presentation reports on the analysis of the implementation of these two approaches within higher education curricula at a particular university in South Africa. The study adopts a qualitative case study design. Data were generated through the use of surveys, evaluation feedback at workshops, and content analysis of project reports. Data were analyzed using document analysis, content, and thematic analysis. Initial analysis shows that the forces constraining the implementation of PBL and DT range from the capacity to engage with DT and PBL, both from staff and students, educational contextual realities of higher education institutions, administrative processes, and resources. At the same time, the implementation of DT and PBL was enabled through the allocation of strategic funding and capacity development workshops. These factors, however, could not achieve maximum impact. In addition, the presentation will include recommendations on how DT and PBL could be adapted for differing contexts will be explored.

Keywords: design thinking, project based learning, innovative higher education pedagogy, student and staff capacity development

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1221 Spatial Variability of Heavy Metals in Sediments of Two Streams of the Olifants River System, South Africa

Authors: Abraham Addo-Bediako, Sophy Nukeri, Tebatso Mmako

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Many freshwater ecosystems have been subjected to prolonged and cumulative pollution as a result of human activities such as mining, agricultural, industrial and human settlements in their catchments. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial variability of heavy metal pollution of sediments and possible sources of pollutants in two streams of the Olifants River System, South Africa. Stream sediments were collected and analysed for Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Lead (Pb), Nickel (Ni) and Zinc (Zn) concentrations using inductively coupled plasma-mass mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). In both rivers, As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn fell within the concentration ranges recommended by CCME and ANZECC, while the concentrations of Cr and Ni exceeded the standards; the results indicated that Cr and Ni in the sediments originated from human activities and not from natural geological background. The index of geo-accumulation (Igeo) was used to assess the degree of pollution. The results of the geo-accumulation index evaluation showed that Cr and Ni were present in the sediments of the rivers at moderately to extremely polluted levels, while As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn existed at unpolluted to moderately polluted levels. Generally, heavy metal concentrations increased along the gradient in the rivers. The high concentrations of Cr and Ni in both rivers are of great concern, as previously these two rivers were classified to be supplying the Olifants River with water of good quality. There is a critical need, therefore to monitor heavy metal concentrations and distributions, as well as a comprehensive plan to prevent health risks, especially those communities still reliant on untreated water from the rivers, as sediment pollution may pose a risk of secondary water pollution under sediment disturbance and/or changes in the geo-chemistry of sediments.

Keywords: geo-accumulation index, heavy metals, sediment pollution, water quality

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1220 The African Notion of Moral Personhood

Authors: Meshandren Naidoo

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Personhood is an important philosophical and ethical device that belies many major ethical and legal issues. The concept of African personhood is often overlooked, however, given the decolonization projects occurring in Africa, it is important to consider this view. African personhood, as opposed to Western personhood, is not individualistic in nature. The latter is predominantly Kantian and based on the notion that all persons have equal moral due to their capacity for a reason, whereas communitarianism is central to an African conception of personhood.

Keywords: African philosophy, bioethics, ethics, personhood

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1219 Global Production of Systematic Reviews on Population Health Issues in the Middle East and North Africa: Preliminary Results of a Systematic Overview and Bibliometric Analysis, 2008-2016

Authors: Karima Chaabna, Sohaila Cheema, Amit Abraham, Hekmat Alrouh, Ravinder Mamtani, Javaid I. Sheikh

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We aimed to assess the production of systematic reviews (SRs) that synthesize observational studies discussing population health issues in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Two independent reviewers systematically searched MEDLINE through PubMed. Between 2008-2016, 5,747 articles (reviews, systematic reviews, and meta-analyses) were identified. Following a multi-stage screening process, 387 SRs (with or without meta-analysis) on population health issues in the MENA were included in our overview. Citation numbers for each SR were retrieved from Google Scholar. Impact factor of the journal during the publication year for the included SRs was retrieved from the Institute of Scientific Information’s Journal Citation Report. We conducted linear regression analysis to assess time trends of number of publications according to SRs’ characteristics. We characterized a linear statistically significant increase in the annual numbers of SRs that summarize observational studies on the MENA population health (p-value<0.0001, R2=0.95), from 15 in 2008 to 81 in 2016. Our analysis reveals also linear statistically significant increases in numbers of SRs published by authors affiliated to institutions located inside MENA and/or neighboring countries (N=113, p-value < 0.0001, R²=0.90), by authors located outside MENA (N=155, p-value=0.0007, R²=0.82), and by collaborating authors affiliated to institutions located outside MENA and inside the region and/or in MENA’s neighboring countries (total number of SRs (N)= 119, p-value=0.0004, R²=0.85). Furthermore, these SRs were published in journals with an IF ranging from 0 to 47.8 (median=2.1). Linear statistically significant increases in numbers of published SRs were demonstrated in journals’ impact factor (IF) categories (IF=[0-2[: R²=0.79, p-value=0.0012; IF=[2-4[:R²=0.86, p-value=0.0003; and IF=[4-6[:R²=0.53, p-value=0.026). Additionally, annual numbers of citations to the SRs varied between 0 and 471 (median=7). While each year, a couple of SRs were getting more than 50 annual citations, there were linear statistically significant increases in numbers of published SRs with an annual number of citations at [0-10[(R²=0.89, p-value=0.00014) and at [10-50[ (R²=0.76, p-value=0.0021). Between 2008-2016, increasingly SRs that summarize observational studies on population health issues in the MENA were published. Authors of these SRs were located inside and/or outside the MENA region and an increasing number of collaborations were seen. Increasing numbers of SRs were predominantly observed in journals with an IF between zero and six. Interestingly, SRs covering MENA region countries were being increasingly cited, indicating an escalation of interest in this region’s population health issues.

Keywords: bibliometric, citation, impact factor, Middle East and North Africa, population health, systematic review

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1218 The Nexus between Migration and Human Security: The Case of Ethiopian Female Migration to Sudan

Authors: Anwar Hassen Tsega

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International labor migration is an integral part of the modern globalized world. However, the phenomenon has its roots in some earlier periods in human history. This paper discusses the relatively new phenomenon of female migration in Africa. In the past, African women migrants were only spouses or dependent family members. But as modernity swept most African societies, with rising unemployment rates, there is evidence everywhere in Africa that women labor migration is a growing phenomenon that deserves to be understood in the context of human security research. This work explores these issues further, focusing on the experience of Ethiopian women labor migrants to Sudan. The migration of Ethiopian people to Sudan is historical; nevertheless, labor migration mainly started since the discovery and subsequent exploration of oil in the Sudan. While the paper is concerned with the human security aspect of the migrant workers, we need to be certain that the migration process will provide with a decent wage, good working conditions, the necessary social security coverage, and labor protection as a whole. However, migration to Sudan is not always safe and female migrants become subject to violence at the hands of brokers, employers and migration officials. For this matter, the paper argued that identifying the vulnerable stages and major problem facing female migrant workers at various stages of migration is a prerequisite to combat the problem and secure the lives of the migrant workers. The major problems female migrants face include extra degrees of gender-based violence, underpayment, various forms of abuse like verbal, physical and sexual and other forms of torture which include beating and slaps. This peculiar situation could be attributed to the fact that most of these women are irregular migrants and fall under the category of unskilled and/or illiterate migrants.

Keywords: Ethiopia, human security, labor migration, Sudan

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1217 Epidemiological Survey on Tick-Borne Pathogens with Zoonotic Potential in Dog Populations of Southern Ethiopia

Authors: Hana Tadesse, Marika Grillini, Giulia Simonato, Alessandra Mondin, Giorgia Dotto, Antonio Frangipane Di Regalbono, Bersissa Kumsa, Rudi Cassini, Maria Luisa Menandro

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Dogs are known to host several tick-borne pathogens with zoonotic potential; however, scant information is available on the epidemiology of these pathogens in low-income tropical coun- tries and in particular in sub-Saharan Africa. With the aim of investigating a wide range of tick- borne pathogens (i.e., Rickettsia spp., Anaplasma spp., Erhlichia spp., Borrelia spp., Hepatozoon spp. and Babesia spp.), 273 blood samples were collected from dogs in selected districts of Ethiopia and analyzed by real-time and/or end-point PCR. The results of the study showed that Hepatozoon canis was the most prevalent pathogen (53.8%), followed by Anaplasma phagocythophilum (7.0%), Babesia canis rossi (3.3%), Ehrlichia canis (2.6%) and Anaplasma platys (2.2%). Furthermore, five samples tested positive for Borrelia spp., identified as Borrelia afzelii (n = 3) and Borrelia burgdorferi (n = 2), and two samples for Rickettsia spp., identified as Rickettsia conorii (n = 1) and Rickettsia monacensis (n = 1). The finding of Anaplasma phagocythophilum and different species of the genera Borrelia and Rickettsia with zoonotic potential was unexpected and alarming, and calls for further investigation on the roles of dogs and on the tick, species acting as vector in this specific context. Other pathogens (Hepatozoon canis, Babaesia canis rossi, Anaplasma platys, Ehrlichia canis) are already known to have an important impact on the dogs’ health but have minor zoonotic potential as they were rarely or never reported in humans. Dogs from rural areas were found to be at higher risk for different pathogens, probably due to the presence of other wild canids in the same environment. The findings of the present study contribute to a better knowledge of the epidemiology of tick-borne pathogens, which is relevant to human and animal health.

Keywords: Dogs, Tick-borne pathogens, Africa, Ethiopia

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1216 Screening Psychological Wellness in a South African Banking Industry: Psychometric Properties of the Sense of Coherence-29 Questionnaire and Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire

Authors: Nisha Harry, Keshia Sing

Abstract:

Orientation: The Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLF) and the sense of coherence-29 (SCS) is an effective tools to assess the prevalence and underlying structures of empirically based taxonomies related to leadership and wellbeing. Research purpose: The purpose of the study was to test the psychometric properties of the SCS and Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) to screen for psychological wellness indices within the banking industry in South Africa. Motivation for the study: The contribution of these two instruments for the purpose of determining psychological wellness in a banking work environment is unique. Research design, approach, or method: The sample consisted of (N = 150) financial staff employed in a South African banking organisation. The age of the sample was: 37% (30 -40 yrs), 31% (20-30 yrs), 26% (40- 50 yrs), and 6% (50+yrs), of which 52% were males, 48% were females. The white race group was the majority at 29%, African at 26%, Coloured at 23%, and Indian was 22%. Main findings: Results from the exploratory factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure as the most satisfactory. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed the two-factor model displayed better good of-fit indices. Practical implications: The factor structure of the Sense of Coherence-29 scale (SCS), and the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ), have a value-added focus to determine psychological wellness within banking staff. It is essential to take into account these constructs when developing employee wellness interventions. Contribution/value add: Understanding the psychometric properties of the SCS, the self-reported form, and the MLQ questionnaire contributes to screening psychological wellness indices such as coping within the banking industry in a developing country like South Africa. Leaders are an important part of the implementation process of organisational employee wellness practices.

Keywords: factorial structure, leadership, measurement invariance, psychological wellness, sense of coherence

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1215 Socio-Economic Setting and Implications to Climate Change Impacts in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Authors: Kenneth Nhundu, Leocadia Zhou, Farhad Aghdasi, Voster Muchenje

Abstract:

Climate change poses increased risks to rural communities that rely on natural resources, such as forests, cropland and rangeland, waterways, and open spaces Because of their connection to the land and the potential for climate change to impact natural resources and disrupt ecosystems and seasons, rural livelihoods and well-being are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. Climate change has the potential to affect the environment in a number of ways that place increased stress on everyone, but disproportionately on the most vulnerable populations, including the young, the old, those with chronic illness, and the poor. The communities in the study area are predominantly rural, resource-based and are generally surrounded by public or private lands that are dominated by natural resources, including forests, rangelands, and agriculture. The livelihoods of these communities are tied to natural resources. Therefore, targeted strategies to cope will be required. This paper assessed the household socio-economic characteristics and their implications to household vulnerability to climate change impacts in the rural Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The results indicate that the rural communities are climate-vulnerable populations as they have a large proportion of people who are less economically or physically capable of adapting to climate change. The study therefore recommends that at each level, the needs, knowledge, and voices of vulnerable populations, including indigenous peoples and resource-based communities, deserve consideration and incorporation so that climate change policy (1) ensures that all people are supported and able to act, (2) provides as robust a strategy as possible to address a rapidly changing environment, and (3) enhances equity and justice.

Keywords: climate change, vulnerable, socio-economic, livelihoods

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1214 Artificial Intelligence and Personhood: An African Perspective

Authors: Meshandren Naidoo, Amy Gooden

Abstract:

The concept of personhood extending from the moral status of an artificial intelligence system has been explored – but predominantly from a Western conception of personhood. African personhood, however, is distinctly different from Western personhood in that communitarianism is central rather than individualism. Given the decolonization projects happening in Africa, it’s paramount to consider these views. This research demonstrates that the African notion of personhood may extend for an artificial intelligent system where the pre-conditions are met.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ethics, law, personhood, policy

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1213 Separation of Powers and Judicial Review vis-a-vis Judicial Overreach in South Africa: A Critical Analysis

Authors: Linda Muswaka

Abstract:

The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996 ranks the Constitution as the Supreme law of the Republic. Law or conduct, inconsistent with the provisions of the Constitution is invalid to the extent of the inconsistency. The Constitution binds all persons and legislative, executive and judicial organs of the State at all levels of government. The Constitution embodies a Bill of Rights and expressly allows for judicial review. The introduction of a chapter of rights requires the judiciary to examine the decisions of the legislature and the executive. In a situation where these conflicts with the Bill of Rights, the judiciary have the constitutional power to overrule such decisions. In exercising its adjudicatory and interpretative powers, the judiciary sometimes arrives at unpopular decisions and accusations of judicial overreach are made. A problem, therefore, emerges on the issue of the separation of powers and judicial review. This paper proposes to, through the South African perspective, investigate the application of the doctrine of separation of powers and judicial review. In this regard, the qualitative method of research will be employed. The reason is that it is best suited to this type of study which entails a critical analysis of legal issues. The following findings are made: (i) a complete separation of powers is not possible. This is because some overlapping of the functions of the three branches of state are unavoidable; (ii) the powers vested in the judiciary does not make it more powerful than the executive and the legislature; (iii) interference by the judiciary in matters concerning other branches is not automatically, judicial overreach; and (iv) if both the executive and legislative organs of government adhere to their constitutional obligations there would be a decrease in the need for judicial interference through court adjudication. The researcher concludes by submitting that the judiciary should not derogate from their constitutionally mandated function of judicial review. The rationale being that that if the values contained in the Constitution are not scrupulously observed and their precepts not carried out conscientiously, the result will be a constitutional crisis of great magnitude.

Keywords: constitution, judicial review, judicial overreach, separation of powers

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1212 Industrial Kaolinite Resource Deposits Study in Grahamstown Area, Eastern Cape, South Africa

Authors: Adeola Ibukunoluwa Samuel, Afsoon Kazerouni

Abstract:

Industrial mineral kaolin has many favourable properties such as colour, shape, softness, non-abrasiveness, natural whiteness, as well as chemical stability. It occurs extensively in North of Bedford road Grahamstown, South Africa. The relationship between both the physical and chemical properties as lead to its application in the production of certain industrial products which are used by the public; this includes the prospect of production of paper, ceramics, rubber, paint, and plastics. Despite its interesting economic potentials, kaolinite clay mineral remains undermined, and this is threatening its sustainability in the mineral industry. This research study focuses on a detailed evaluation of the kaolinite mineral and possible ways to increase its lifespan in the industry. The methods employed for this study includes petrographic microscopy analysis, X-ray powder diffraction analysis (XRD), and proper field reconnaissance survey. Results emanating from this research include updated geological information on Grahamstown. Also, mineral transformation phases such as quartz, kaolinite, calcite and muscovite were identified in the clay samples. Petrographic analysis of the samples showed that the study area has been subjected to intense tectonic deformation and cement replacement. Also, different dissolution patterns were identified on the Grahamstown kaolinitic clay deposits. Hence incorporating analytical studies and data interpretations, possible ways such as the establishment of processing refinery near mining plants, which will, in turn, provide employment for the locals and land reclamation is suggested. In addition, possible future sustainable industrial applications of the clay minerals seem to be possible if additives, cellulosic wastes are used to alter the clay mineral.

Keywords: kaolinite, industrial use, sustainability, Grahamstown, clay minerals

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1211 Context, Challenges, Constraints and Strategies of Non-Profit Organisations in Responding to the Needs of Asylum Seekers and Refugees in Cape Town, South Africa

Authors: C. O’Brien, Chloe Reiss

Abstract:

While South Africa has been the chosen host country for over 1,2 million asylum seekers/refugees it has at the same time, been struggling to address the needs of its own people who are still trapped in poverty with little prospects of employment. This limited exploratory, qualitative study was undertaken in Cape Town with a purposive sample of 21 key personnel from various NPOs providing a service to asylum seekers/refugees. Individual in-depth face to face interviews were carried out and the main findings were: Some of the officials at the Department of Home Affairs, health personnel, landlords, school principals, employers, bank officials and police officers were prejudicial in their practices towards asylum seekers/ refugees. The major constraints experienced by NPOs in this study were linked to a lack of funding and minimal government support, strained relationship with the Department of Home Affairs and difficulties in accessing refugees. And finally, the strategies adopted by these NPOs included networking with other service providers, engaging in advocacy, raising community awareness and liaising with government. Thus, more focused intervention strategies are needed to build social cohesion, address prejudices which fuels xenophobic attacks and raise awareness/educate various sectors about refugee rights. Given this burgeoning global problem, social work education and training should include curriculum content on migrant issues. Furthermore, larger studies using mixed methodology approaches would yield more nuanced data and provide for more strategic interventions.

Keywords: refugees and asylum seekers, constraints of service delivery, non-profit organisations, refugee challenges

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1210 Emotional Intelligence and Sports Coaches

Authors: Stephens Oluyemi Adetunji, Nel Norma Margaret, Krogs Sozein

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There has been a shift in the role of sports from being a form of entertainment and relaxation to becoming a huge business concern and high money spinning venture. This shift has placed a greater demand on sport coaches as regards expectations for high performance from investors as well as other stake holders. The responsibility of sports coaches in ensuring high performance of sports men and women has become increasingly more demanding from both spectators and sports organisers. Coaches are leaders who should possess soft skills such as emotional intelligence aside from employing skills and drills to ensure high performance of athletes. This study is, therefore, designed to determine the emotional intelligence of sports coaches in South Africa. An assessment of the emotional intelligence of sports coaches would enable the researchers to identify those who have low emotional intelligence and to design an intervention program that could improve their emotional intelligence. This study will adopt the pragmatic world view of research using the mixed methods research design of the quantitative and qualitative approach. The non-probability sampling technique will be used to select fifty sports coaches for the quantitative study while fifteen sports coaches will be purposively selected for the qualitative study. One research question which seeks to ascertain the level of emotional intelligence of sports coaches will be raised to guide this study. In addition, two research hypotheses stating that there will be no significant difference in the level of emotional intelligence of sports coaches on the basis of gender and type of sports will be formulated and statistically analysed at 0.05 level of significance. For the quantitative study, an emotional intelligence test will be used to measure the emotional intelligence of sport coaches. Focus group interviews and open ended questions will be used to obtain the qualitative data. Quantitative data obtained will be statistically analysed using the SPSS version 22.0 while the qualitative data will be analysed using atlas ti. Based on the findings of this study, recommendations will be made.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, high performance, sports coaches, South Africa

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1209 Mapping of Risks and Opportunities for Adolescents Girls’ Sexual and Reproductive Health in Peri-Urban Setting in Mwanza, Tanzania

Authors: Soori Nnko, Zaina Mchome, John Dusabe, Angela Obasi

Abstract:

In sub-Saharan Africa, adolescent girls living in urban and periurban settings are among the groups at increased risk of getting sexually transmitted infections. One of the challenges to improve uptake of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services among adolescents is linked to little appreciation about their vulnerability and the knowledge on availability of the SRH services. Objective: This study assesses adolescents’ perceptions on risks for SRH problems and the availability of services to prevent against SRH problems. Methodology: The study was conducted in March 2011 in Mwanza region, Tanzania. Data collection techniques included 18 Participatory Group Discussions and 17 In-depth Interviews with adolescents and young mothers aged 15-20 years. Results: Adolescents indicated that risk places included their homes, bushes, commercial centers, roadsides as well as school settings. Risk for having unprotected sex varied depending on where you are, and the time of the day. For example, collection of firewood in the bushes or water from the wells exposed girls to men who forced or lured them to have sex. The girls reported to encounter motorcyclists who offered the ride in exchange for sex. Girls also knew myriads places to seek SRH services, including public and private clinics, drug shops and traditional healers. Despite being aware of risky environment, and places to seek the services, access to SRH services were limited due to the stigma and negative attitude of community regarding adolescents’ utilization of SRH services. Conclusion: Adolescents are exposed to various risky environments, yet due to social stigma they have difficult to access the available SRH services.

Keywords: adolescent girls, sexual and reproductive health, AIDS, risk, opportunities, interventions, sub Saharan africa

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1208 Enteropathogenic Viruses Associated with Acute Gastroenteritis among Under 5-Years Children in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: Cornelius Arome Omatola, Ropo Ebenezer Ogunsakin, Anyebe Bernard Onoja, Martin-Luther Oseni Okolo, Joseph Abraham-Oyiguh, Kehinde Charles Mofolorunso, Phoebe Queen Akoh, Omebije Patience Adejo, Joshua Idakwo, Therisa Ojomideju Okeme, Danjuma Muhammed, David Moses Adaji, Sunday Ocholi Samson, Ruth Aminu, Monday Eneojo Akor

Abstract:

Gastroenteritis viruses are the leading etiologic agents of diarrhea in children worldwide. We present data from thirty-three (33) eligible studies published between 2003 and 2023 from African countries bearing the brunt of the virus-associated diarrheal mortality. Random effects meta-analysis with proportion, subgroups, and meta-regression analyses were employed. Overall, rotavirus with estimated pooled prevalence of 31.0% (95% CI 24.0–39.0) predominated in all primary care visits and hospitalizations, followed by norovirus, adenovirus, sapovirus, astrovirus, and aichivirus with pooled prevalence estimated at 15.0% (95% CI 12.0–20.0), 10% (95% CI 6-15), 4.0% (95% CI 2.0–6.0), 4% (95% CI 3-6), and 2.3% (95% CI 1-3), respectively. Predominant rotavirus genotype was G1P[8] (38%), followed by G3P[8] (11.7%), G9P[8] (8.7%), and G2P[4] (7.1%); although, unusual genotypes were also observed, including G3P[6] (2.7%), G8P[6] (1.7%), G1P[6] (1.5%), G10P[8] (0.9%), G8P[4] (0.5%), and G4P[8] (0.4%). The genogroup II norovirus predominated over the genogroup I-associated infections (84.6%, 613/725 vs 14.9%, 108/725), with the GII.4 (79.3%) being the most prevalent circulating genotype. In conclusion, this review showed that rotavirus remains the leading driver of viral diarrhea requiring health care visits and hospitalization among under-five years children in Africa. Thus, improved rotavirus vaccination in the region and surveillance to determine the residual burden of rotavirus and the evolving trend of other enteric viruses are needed for effective control and management of cases.

Keywords: enteric viruses, rotavirus, norovirus, adenovirus, astrovirus, gastroenteritis

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1207 First Breeding Populations of The Glossy Ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) in a Peri-Urban Wetland Areas (Marsh of Boussedra; North-East of Algeria)

Authors: Boudraa Wahiba, Chettibi Farah, Lahlah Naouel, Bouslama Zihad, Houhamdi Moussa

Abstract:

The marsh of Boussedra (55 ha) is a peri-urban wetland, located in the city of El - Bouni, wilaya of Annaba (North-east of the Algeria). This city hosts every year, 53 species of waterfowl, belonging to 15 different families, of which the most represented family is the Anatidae with almost 12 species. The Glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) is the only representative of the family of the threskiornithidae. After a total absence for almost a decade, this species has established in North Africa and started breeding since 2000. The Glossy ibis (plegadis falcinellus), breeds with low numbers in distant areas. At the wetland of Boussedra, the population of this species was observed with numbers approaching 160 individuals. During the breeding season of 2014 (between march and july), this species bred in mixed heronries (Cattle egret Bubulcus ibis , Little egret Egretta garzetta, The black-crowned night heron Nycticorax nycticorax , Squacco heron Ardeola ralloides and Little bittern Ixobrychus minutus), where a total of 120 nests were counted. This represents the largest colony observed in North Africa. The reproduction of the studied species took place on a Tamaricaceae (Tamarix gallica), where more than 2000 nest were constructed. During this breeding season, we have monitored the colony's installation and evolution and tried to characterize the reproduction, at the urban water plan of Boussedra (measurements of nests, measurements of eggs and monitoring the growing rate and weight gaining of the chicks, since their birth until their flight).

Keywords: glossy ibis, reproduction, peri-urban wetland, mixed heronry, Boussedra, Algeria

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1206 Water Infrastructure Asset Management: A Comparative Analysis of Three Urban Water Utilities in South Africa

Authors: Elkington S. Mnguni

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Water and sanitation services in South Africa are characterized by both achievements and challenges. After the end of apartheid in 1994 the newly elected government faced the challenge of eradicating backlogs with respect to access to basic services, including water and sanitation. Capital investment made in the development of new water and sanitation infrastructure to provide basic services to previously disadvantaged communities has grown, to a certain extent, at the expense of investment in the operation and maintenance of new and existing infrastructure. Challenges resulting from aging infrastructure and poor plant performance highlight the need for investing in the maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement of existing infrastructure to optimize the return on investment. Advanced water infrastructure asset management (IAM) is key to achieving adequate levels of service, particularly with regard to reliable and high quality drinking water supply, prevention of urban flooding, efficient use of natural resources and prevention of pollution and associated risks. Against this backdrop, this paper presents an appraisal of water and sanitation IAM systems in South Africa’s three utilities, being metropolitan cities in the Gauteng Province. About a quarter of the national population lives in the three rapidly urbanizing cities of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane, located in a semi-arid region. A literature review has been done and field visits to some of the utility facilities are being conducted. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with the three utilities. The following critical factors are being analysed in terms of compliance with the national Water Services IAM Strategy (2011) and other applicable legislation: asset registers; capacity of assets; current and predicted demand; funding availability / budget allocations; plans: operation & maintenance, renewal & replacement, and risk management; no-drop status (non-revenue water levels); blue drop status (water quality); green drop status (effluent quality); and skills availability. Some of the key challenges identified in the literature review include: funding constraints, Skills shortage, and wastewater treatment plants operating beyond their design capacities. These challenges will be verified during field visits and research interviews. Gaps between literature and practice will be identified and relevant recommendations made if necessary. The objective of this study is to contribute to the resolution of the challenges brought about by the backlogs in the operation and maintenance of water and sanitation assets in the country in general, and in the three cities in particular, thus improving the sustainability thereof.

Keywords: asset management, backlogs, levels of service, sustainability, water and sanitation infrastructure

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1205 The Relationship Between Military Expenditure and International Trade: A Selection of African Countries

Authors: Andre C Jordaan

Abstract:

The end of the Cold War and rivalry between super powers has changed the nature of military build-up in many countries. A call from international institutions like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to reduce the levels of military expenditure was the order of the day. However, this bid to cut military expenditure has not been forthright. Recently, active armed conflicts occurred in at least 46 states in 2021 with 8 in the Americas, 9 in Asia and Oceania, 3 in Europe, 8 in the Middle East and North Africa and 18 in sub-Saharan Africa. Global military expenditure in 2022 was estimated to be US$2,2 trillion, representing 2.2 per cent of global gross domestic product. Particularly sharp rises in military spending have followed in African countries and the Middle East. Global military expenditure currently follows two divergent trends, either a declining trend in the West caused mainly by austerity, efforts to control budget deficits and the wrapping up of prolonged wars. However, some parts of the world shows an increasing trend on the back of security concerns, geopolitical ambitions and some internal political factors. Conflict related fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa alone increased by 19 per cent between 2020 and 2021. The interaction between military expenditure (read conflict) and international trade is generally the cause of much debate. Some argue that countries’ fear of losing trade opportunities causes political decision makers to refrain from engaging in conflict when important trading partners are involved. However, three main arguments are always present when discussing the relationship between military expenditure or conflicts and international trade: Free trade could promote peaceful cooperation, it could trigger tension between trading blocs and partners, and trade could have no effect because conflict is based on issues that are more important. Military expenditure remains an important element of the overall government expenditure in many African countries. On the other hand, numerous researchers perceive increased international trade to be one of the main factors promoting economic growth in these countries. The purpose of this paper is therefore to determine what effect, if any, exist between the level of military expenditure and international trade within a selection of 19 African countries. Applying an augmented gravity model to explore the relationship between military expenditure and international trade, evidence is found to confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between these two variables. It seems that the results are in line with the Liberal school of thought where trade is seen as an instrument of conflict prevention. Trade is therefore perceived as a symptom of peace and not a cause thereof. In general, conflict or rumors of conflict tend to reduce trade. If conflict did not impede trade, economic agents would be indifferent to risk. Many claim that trade brings peace, however, it seems that it is rather peace that brings trade. From the results, it appears that trade reduces the risk of conflict and that conflict reduces trade.

Keywords: African countries, conflict, international trade, military expenditure

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1204 Comparison of Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Network Classifiers in Characterizing Threatened Tree Species Using Eight Bands of WorldView-2 Imagery in Dukuduku Landscape, South Africa

Authors: Galal Omer, Onisimo Mutanga, Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Elhadi Adam

Abstract:

Threatened tree species (TTS) play a significant role in ecosystem functioning and services, land use dynamics, and other socio-economic aspects. Such aspects include ecological, economic, livelihood, security-based, and well-being benefits. The development of techniques for mapping and monitoring TTS is thus critical for understanding the functioning of ecosystems. The advent of advanced imaging systems and supervised learning algorithms has provided an opportunity to classify TTS over fragmenting landscape. Recently, vegetation maps have been produced using advanced imaging systems such as WorldView-2 (WV-2) and robust classification algorithms such as support vectors machines (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN). However, delineation of TTS in a fragmenting landscape using high resolution imagery has widely remained elusive due to the complexity of the species structure and their distribution. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to examine the utility of the advanced WV-2 data for mapping TTS in the fragmenting Dukuduku indigenous forest of South Africa using SVM and ANN classification algorithms. The results showed the robustness of the two machine learning algorithms with an overall accuracy (OA) of 77.00% (total disagreement = 23.00%) for SVM and 75.00% (total disagreement = 25.00%) for ANN using all eight bands of WV-2 (8B). This study concludes that SVM and ANN classification algorithms with WV-2 8B have the potential to classify TTS in the Dukuduku indigenous forest. This study offers relatively accurate information that is important for forest managers to make informed decisions regarding management and conservation protocols of TTS.

Keywords: artificial neural network, threatened tree species, indigenous forest, support vector machines

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