Search results for: extreme precipitation events

Authors: Svitlana Antonenko, Gennady Telegeev

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Introductive statement: The development of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is caused by Bcr-Abl oncoprotein. Modern treatments with tyrosine kinase inhibitors are greatly complicated by the mutational variability of the Bcr-Abl oncoprotein, which causes drug resistance. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop new approaches to the treatment of the disease, which will allow modeling the level of Bcr-Abl oncoprotein in the cell. Promising in this direction is the identification of proteases that can selectively promote cellular proteolysis of oncoproteins. The aim of the study was to study the effect of the interaction of Bcr-Abl with deubiquitinase USP1 on the level of oncoprotein in CML cells. Methodology: K562 cells were selected for the experiment. Сells were incubated with ML323 inhibitor for 24 hours. Precipitation of endogenous proteins from K562 cell lysate was performed using anti-Bcr-Abl antibodies. Cell lysates and precipitation results were studied by Western blot. Subcellular localization of proteins was studied by immunofluorescence analysis followed by confocal microscopy. The results were analyzed quantitatively and statistically. Major findings: The Bcr-Abl/USP1 protein complex was detected in CML cells, and it was found that inhibition of USP1 deubiquitinating activity by the compound ML323 leads to disruption of this protein complex and a decrease in the level of Bcr-Abl oncoprotein in cells. The interaction of Bcr-Abl with USP1 may result in deubiquitination of the oncoprotein, which disrupts its proteasomal degradation and leads to the accumulation of CML in cells. Conclusion: We believe that the interaction of oncoprotein with USP1 may be one of the prerequisites that contribute to malignant cell transformation due to the deubiquitination of oncoprotein, which leads to its accumulation and disease progression. A correlation was found between the deubiquitinating activity of USP1 and the level of oncoprotein in CML cells. Thus, we identify deubiquitinase USP1 as a promising therapeutic target for the development of a new strategy for the treatment of CML by modulating the level of Bcr-Abl in the cell.

Keywords: chronic myeloid leukemia, Bcr-Abl, USP1, deubiquitination Bcr-Abl, K562 cell

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Authors: Sevilay Çankaya

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The detection of deception in children’s interviews is essential for statement veracity. The widely used method for deception detection is building cognitive load, which is the logic of the cognitive interview (CI), and its effectiveness for adults is approved. This meta-analysis delves into the effectiveness of inducing cognitive load as a means of enhancing veracity detection during interviews with children. Additionally, the effectiveness of cognitive load on children's total number of events recalled is assessed as a second part of the analysis. The current meta-analysis includes ten effect sizes from search using databases. For the effect size calculation, Hedge’s g was used with a random effect model by using CMA version 2. Heterogeneity analysis was conducted to detect potential moderators. The overall result indicated that cognitive load had no significant effect on veracity outcomes (g =0.052, 95% CI [-.006,1.25]). However, a high level of heterogeneity was found (I² = 92%). Age, participants’ characteristics, interview setting, and characteristics of the interviewer were coded as possible moderators to explain variance. Age was significant moderator (β = .021; p = .03, R2 = 75%) but the analysis did not reveal statistically significant effects for other potential moderators: participants’ characteristics (Q = 0.106, df = 1, p = .744), interview setting (Q = 2.04, df = 1, p = .154), and characteristics of interviewer (Q = 2.96, df = 1, p = .086). For the second outcome, the total number of events recalled, the overall effect was significant (g =4.121, 95% CI [2.256,5.985]). The cognitive load was effective in total recalled events when interviewing with children. All in all, while age plays a crucial role in determining the impact of cognitive load on veracity, the surrounding context, interviewer attributes, and inherent participant traits may not significantly alter the relationship. These findings throw light on the need for more focused, age-specific methods when using cognitive load measures. It may be possible to improve the precision and dependability of deceit detection in children's interviews with the help of more studies in this field.

Keywords: deceit detection, cognitive load, memory recall, children interviews, meta-analysis

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Authors: Alexander Zotov, Ilkin Osmanov, Emil Sakharov, Oleg Shelest, Aleksander Troitskiy, Robert Khabazov

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Objective: Thoracoscopic surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) includes two technologies in performing of operation. 1st strategy used is the AtriCure device (bipolar, nonirrigated, non clamping), 2nd strategy is- the Medtronic device (bipolar, irrigated, clamping). The study presents a comparative analysis of clinical outcomes of two strategies in thoracoscopic ablation of AF using AtriCure vs. Medtronic devices. Methods: In 2 center study, 123 patients underwent thoracoscopic ablation of AF for the period from 2016 to 2020. Patients were divided into two groups. The first group is represented by patients who applied the AtriCure device (N=63), and the second group is - the Medtronic device (N=60), respectively. Patients were comparable in age, gender, and initial severity of the condition. Among the patients, in group 1 were 65% males with a median age of 57 years, while in group 2 – 75% and 60 years, respectively. Group 1 included patients with paroxysmal form -14,3%, persistent form - 68,3%, long-standing persistent form – 17,5%, group 2 – 13,3%, 13,3% and 73,3% respectively. Median ejection fraction and indexed left atrial volume amounted in group 1 – 63% and 40,6 ml/m2, in group 2 - 56% and 40,5 ml/m2. In addition, group 1 consisted of 39,7% patients with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class II) and 4,8% with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class III), when in group 2 – 45% and 6,7%, respectively. Follow-up consisted of laboratory tests, chest Х-ray, ECG, 24-hour Holter monitor, and cardiopulmonary exercise test. Duration of freedom from AF, distant mortality rate, and prevalence of cerebrovascular events were compared between the two groups. Results: Exit block was achieved in all patients. According to the Clavien-Dindo classification of surgical complications fraction of adverse events was 14,3% and 16,7% (1st group and 2nd group, respectively). Mean follow-up period in the 1st group was 50,4 (31,8; 64,8) months, in 2nd group - 30,5 (14,1; 37,5) months (P=0,0001). In group 1 - total freedom of AF was in 73,3% of patients, among which 25% had additional antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) therapy or catheter ablation (CA), in group 2 – 90% and 18,3%, respectively (for total freedom of AF P<0,02). At follow-up, the distant mortality rate in the 1st group was – 4,8%, and in the 2nd – no fatal events. Prevalence of cerebrovascular events was higher in the 1st group than in the 2nd (6,7% vs. 1,7% respectively). Conclusions: Despite the relatively shorter follow-up of the 2nd group in the study, applying the strategy using the Medtronic device showed quite encouraging results. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy in the long-term period.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, clamping, ablation, thoracoscopic surgery

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Authors: Andreas Ateke Njoh, Shalom Tchokfe Ndoula, Amani Adidja, Germain Nguessan Menan, Annie Mengue, Eric Mboke, Hassan Ben Bachir, Sangwe Clovis Nchinjoh, Yauba Saidu, Laurent Cleenewerck De Kiev

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Vaccines serve a great deal in protecting the population globally. Vaccine products are subject to rigorous quality control and approval before use to ensure safety. Even if all actors take the required precautions, some people could still have adverse events following immunization (AEFI) caused by the vaccine composition or an error in its administration. AEFI underreporting is pronounced in low-income settings like Cameroon. The Country introduced electronic platforms to strengthen surveillance. With the introduction of many novel vaccines, like COVID-19 and the novel Oral Polio Vaccine (nOPV) 2, there was a need to monitor AEFI in the Country. A cross-sectional study was conducted from July to December 2022. Data on AEFI per region of Cameroon were reviewed for the past five years. Data were analyzed with MS Excel, and the results were presented in proportions. AEFI reporting was uncommon in Cameroon. With the introduction of novel vaccines in 2021, the health authorities engaged in new tools and training to capture cases. AEFI detected almost doubled using the open data kit (ODK) compared to previous platforms, especially following the introduction of the nOPV2 and COVID-19 vaccines. The AEFI rate was 1.9 and 160 per administered 100 000 doses of nOPV2 and COVID-19 vaccines, respectively. This mobile tool captured individual information for people with AEFI from all regions. The platform helped to identify common AEFI following the use of these new vaccines. The ODK mobile technology was vital in improving AEFI reporting and providing data to monitor using new vaccines in Cameroon.

Keywords: adverse events following immunization, cameroon, COVID-19 vaccines, nOPV, ODK

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Authors: Marie Fouet, Olivier Maire, Cécile Masse, Hugues Blanchet, Salomé Coignard, Nicolas Lavesque, Guillaume Bernard

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Exacerbated by global change, extreme climatic events such as atmospheric and marine heat waves may interact with the spread of non-indigenous species and their associated impacts on marine ecosystems. Since the 1970’s, the introduction of non-indigenous species due to oyster exchanges has been numerous. Among them, the Asian date mussel Arcuatula senhousia has colonized a large number of ecosystems worldwide (e.g., California, New Zealand, Italy). In these places, A.senhousia led to important habitat modifications in the benthic compartment through physical, biological, and biogeochemical effects associated with the development of dense mussel populations. In Arcachon Bay (France), a coastal lagoon of the French Atlantic and hotspot of oyster farming, abundances of A. senhousia recently increased, following a lag time of ca. 20 years since the first record of the species in 2002. Here, we addressed the potential effects of the interaction between A. senhousia invasion and heatwave intensity on ecosystem functioning within an intertidal mudflat. More precisely, two realistic intensities (“High” and “Severe”) of combined marine and atmospheric heatwaves have been simulated in an experimental tidal mesocosm system onto which naturally varying densities of A. senhousia and associated benthic communities were exposed in sediment cores collected in situ. Following a six-day exposure, community-scale responses were assessed by measuring benthic metabolism (oxygen and nutrient fluxes) in each core. Results show that besides significantly enhanced benthic metabolism with increasing heatwave intensity, mussel density clearly mediated the magnitude of the community-scale response, thereby highlighting the importance of understanding the interactive effects of environmental stressors co-occurring with non-indigenous species and their dependencies for a better assessment of their impacts.

Keywords: arcuatula senhousia, benthic habitat, ecosystem functioning, heatwaves, metabolism

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Authors: Arkadiusz Zurek

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The potential of using drones is visible in many areas of logistics, especially in terms of their use for monitoring and control of many processes. The technologies implemented in the last decade concern new possibilities for companies that until now have not even considered them, such as warehouse inventories. Unmanned aerial vehicles are no longer seen as a revolutionary tool for Industry 4.0, but rather as tools in the daily work of factories and logistics operators. The research problem is to develop a method for measuring the weight of goods in a selected link of the clothing supply chain by drones. However, the purpose of this article is to analyze the causes of errors in traditional measurements, and then to identify adverse events related to the use of drones for the inventory of a heap of textiles intended for production purposes. On this basis, it will be possible to develop guidelines to eliminate the causes of these events in the measurement process using drones. In a real environment, work was carried out to determine the volume and weight of textiles, including, among others, weighing a textile sample to determine the average density of the assortment, establishing a local geodetic network, terrestrial laser scanning and photogrammetric raid using an unmanned aerial vehicle. As a result of the analysis of measurement data obtained in the facility, the volume and weight of the assortment and the accuracy of their determination were determined. In this article, this work presents how such heaps are currently being tested, what adverse events occur, indicate and describes the current use of photogrammetric techniques of this type of measurements so far performed by external drones for the inventory of wind farms or construction of the station and compare them with the measurement system of the aforementioned textile heap inside a large-format facility.

Keywords: drones, unmanned aerial system, UAS, indoor system, security, process automation, cost optimization, photogrammetry, risk elimination, industry 4.0

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Authors: Jawaher F. Alsharef, Abdullah A. Ghaddaf, Mohammed S. Alomari, Abdullah A. Al Qurashi, Ahmed S. Abdulhamid, Mohammed S. Alshehri, Majed Alosaimi

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Botulinum toxin type A (BTX-A) is the most popular therapeutic agent for muscle relaxation and pain control. Lately, BTX-A injection received great interest as a part of multimodal pain management for lower limb lengthening and deformity correction. This systematic review aimed to determine the role of BTX-A injection in pain management for during lower limb lengthening and/or deformity correction. We searched Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the BTX-A injection to placebo for individuals undergoing lower limb lengthening and/or deformity correction. We sought to evaluate the following outcomes: pain on visual analogue scale (VAS), range of motion parameters, average opioid consumption, and adverse events. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was used to represent continuous outcomes while risk ratio (RR) was used to represent dichotomous outcomes. A total of 4 RCTs that enrolled 257 participants (337 limbs) deemed eligible. Adjuvant BTX-A injection showed a significant reduction in post-operative pain compared to placebo (SMD=–0.28, 95% CI –0.53 to –0.04). No difference was found between BTX-A injection and placebo in terms of range of motion parameters, average opioid consumption, or adverse events after surgical limb lengthening and/or deformity correction (RR= 0.77, 95% CI –0.58 to 1.03). Conclusions: Adjuvant BTX-A injection conferred a discernible reduction in post-operative pain during surgical limb lengthening and/or deformity without increasing the risk of adverse events.

Keywords: botulinum toxin type A, limb lengthening, distraction osteogenesis, deformity correction, pain management

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Authors: Guadalupe Stefanny Aguilar-Moreno, Miguel Angel Aguilar-Mendez, Teodoro Espinosa-Solares

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In the agricultural sector, one of the main emitters of greenhouse gases is manure management, which has been increased considerably in recent years. Biogas is an energy source that can be produced from different organic materials through anaerobic digestion (AD); however, production efficiency is still low. Several techniques have been studied to increase its performance, such as co-digestion, the variation of digestion conditions, and nanomaterials used. Therefore, the aim of this investigation was to evaluate the effect of magnetite nanoparticles (NPs) concentration, synthesized by co-precipitation, on the biogas and methane production in AD using chicken litter as a substrate. Synthesis of NPs was performed according to the co-precipitation method, for which a fractional factorial experimental design 25⁻² with two replications was used. The study factors were concentrations (precursors and passivating), time of sonication and dissolution temperatures, and the response variables were size, hydrodynamic diameter (HD) and zeta potential. Subsequently, the treatment that presented the smallest NPs was chosen for their use on AD. The AD was established in serological bottles with a working volume of 250 mL, incubated at 36 ± 1 °C for 80 days. The treatments consisted of the addition of different concentrations of NPs in the microcosms: chicken litter only (control), 20 mg∙L⁻¹ of NPs + chicken litter, 40 mg∙L⁻¹ of NPs + chicken litter and 60 mg∙L⁻¹ of NPs + chicken litter, all by triplicate. Methane and biogas production were evaluated daily. The smallest HD (49.5 nm) and the most stable NPs (21.22 mV) were obtained with the highest passivating concentration and the lower precursors dissolution temperature, which were the only factors that had a significant effect on the HD. In the transmission electron microscopy performed to these NPs, an average size of 4.2 ± 0.73 nm was observed. The highest biogas and methane production was obtained with the treatment that had 20 mg∙L⁻¹ of NPs, being 29.5 and 73.9%, respectively, higher than the control, while the treatment with the highest concentration of NPs was not statistically different from the control. From the above, it can be concluded that the magnetite NPs promote the biogas and methane production in AD; however, high concentrations may cause inhibitory effects among methanogenic microorganisms.

Keywords: agricultural sector, anaerobic digestion, nanotechnology, waste management

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Authors: Carrie Ho, Tan Yee Yong

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Urban runoff quality for a mixed residential-commercial land use catchment in Miri, Sarawak was investigated for three storm events in 2011. Samples from the three storm events were tested for five water quality parameters, Namely, TSS, COD, BOD5, TP, and Pb. Concentration of the pollutants were found to vary significantly between storms, but were generally influenced by the length of antecedent dry period and the strength of rainfall intensities. Runoff from the study site showed a significant level of pollution for all the parameters investigated. Based on the National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia (NWQS), stormwater quality from the study site was polluted and exceeded class III water for TSS and BOD5 with maximum EMCs of 177 and 24 mg/L, respectively. Design pollutant load based on a design storm of 3-month average recurrence interval (ARI) for TSS, COD, BOD5, TP, and Pb were estimated to be 40, 9.4, 5.4, 1.7, and 0.06 kg/ha, respectively. The design pollutant load for the pollutants can be used to estimate loadings from similar catchments within Miri City.

Keywords: mixed land-use, urban runoff, pollutant load, national water quality

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Authors: H. Aljabiry, L. Bailey, S. Young

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Qatar is a desert with an average temperature 37⁰C, reaching over 40⁰C during summer. Precipitation is uncommon and mostly in winter. Qatar depends on desalination for drinking water and on groundwater and recycled water for irrigation. Water consumption and network leakage per capita in Qatar are amongst the highest in the world; re-use of treated wastewater is extremely limited with only 14% of treated wastewater being used for irrigation. This has led to the country disposing of unwanted water from various sources in lagoons situated around the country, causing concern over the possibility of environmental pollution. Accordingly, our hypothesis underpinning this research is that the quality and quantity of water in lagoons is having an impact on the groundwater reservoirs in Qatar. Lagoons (n = 14) and wells (n = 55) were sampled for both summer and winter in 2018 (summer and winter). Water, adjoining soil and plant samples were analysed for multiple elements by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. Organic and inorganic carbon were measured (CN analyser) and the major anions were determined by ion chromatography. Salinization in both the lagoon and the wells was seen with good correlations between Cl⁻, Na⁺, Li, SO₄, S, Sr, Ca, Ti (p-value < 0.05). Association of heavy metals was observed of Ni, Cu, Ag, and V, Cr, Mo, Cd which is due to contamination from anthropological activities such as wastewater disposal or spread of contaminated dust. However, looking at each elements none of them exceeds the Qatari regulation. Moreover, gypsum saturation in the system was observed in both the lagoon and wells water samples. Lagoons and the water of the well are found to be of a saline type as well as Ca²⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻ type evidencing both gypsum dissolution and salinization in the system. Moreover, Maps produced by Inverse distance weighting showed an increasing level of Nitrate in the groundwater in winter, and decrease chloride and sulphate level, indicating recharge effect after winter rain events. While E. coli and faecal bacteria were found in most of the lagoons, biological analysis for wells needs to be conducted to understand the biological contamination from lagoon water infiltration. As a conclusion, while both the lagoon and the well showed the same results, more sampling is needed to understand the impact of the lagoons on the groundwater.

Keywords: groundwater quality, lagoon, treated wastewater, water management, wastewater treatment, wetlands

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Authors: Nicolas Cuevas-Alvear

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The subject of this paper is the concept of interpretation. Its purpose is to expose the need for a new concept of interpretation and to trace the construction route of interpretation as determination and negotiation. The thesis it defends is that interpretation is the determination of events and the negotiation of those determinations in communication. To meet its objective, this manuscript is divided into five sections. The first section introduces the subject and the need for a new concept of interpretation. The second section explicitly formulates the research questions and the objectives of the project for the construction of a new concept of interpretation. The third section presents the state of the art, specifically, the theory of Radical interpretation proposed by Donald Davidson and the theory of the Hermeneutic Circle proposed by Hans Georg Gadamer. In addition, in this section, there is a reconstruction of Ernst Cassirer's explanation of language as a symbolic form. The fourth section is an explanation of the proposal based on the theories presented. Specifically: language as a symbolic form explains interpretation as a determination of events using objective, subjective and intersubjective elements, and these three elements are negotiated in interpretation as communication. The last section is the bibliography proposed to carry out the project.

Keywords: interpretation, metaphysics, semantics, Donald Davidson, ERNST Cassirer

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Authors: Francesca Nicolosi, Teresa Cosola

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Climate changes in Mediterranean areas, such as the increase of average seasonal temperatures, the urban heat island phenomenon, the intensification of solar radiation and the extreme weather threats, cause disruption events, so that climate adaptation has become a pressing issue. Due to the strategic role that the built heritage holds in terms of environmental impact and energy waste and its potentiality, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of the existing building to climate change, in order to define different mitigation scenarios. The aim of this research work is to define an optimized and integrated methodology for the assessment of resilience levels and adaptation scenarios for existing buildings in Mediterranean urban areas. Moreover, the study of resilience indicators allows us to define building environmental and energy performance in order to identify the design and technological solutions for the improvement of the building and its urban area potentialities. The methodology identifies step-by-step different phases, starting from the detailed study of characteristic elements of urban system: climatic, natural, human, typological and functional components are analyzed in their critical factors and their potential. Through the individuation of the main perturbing factors and the vulnerability degree of the system to the risks linked to climate change, it is possible to define mitigation and adaptation scenarios. They can be different, according to the typological, functional and constructive features of the analyzed system, divided into categories of intervention, and characterized by different analysis levels (from the single building to the urban area). The use of software simulations allows obtaining information on the overall behavior of the building and the urban system, to generate predictive models in the medium and long-term environmental and energy retrofit and to make a comparative study of the mitigation scenarios identified. The studied methodology is validated on a case study.

Keywords: climate impact mitigation, energy efficiency, existing building heritage, resilience

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Authors: Kedar Baral

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This study was carried out in Mustang, Kaski, Tanahun, Baitadi, and Jhapa districts of Nepal. The study explored the spatial and temporal pattern of HWC, socio economic factors associated with it, impacts of conflict on life / livelihood of people and survival of wildlife species, and impact of climate change and forest fire onHWC. Study also evaluated people’s attitude towards wildlife conservation and assessed relevant policies and programs. Questionnaire survey was carried out with the 250 respondents, and both socio-demographic and HWC related information werecollected. Secondary information were collected from Divisional Forest Offices and Annapurna Conservation Area Project.HWC events were grouped by season /months/sites (forest type, distances from forest, and settlement), and the coordinates of the events were exported to ArcGIS. Collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics in Excel and R Program. A total of 1465 events were recorded in 5 districts during 2015 and 2019. Out of that, livestock killing, crop damage, human attack, and cattle shed damage events were 70 %, 12%, 11%, and 7%, respectively. Among 151 human attack cases, 23 people were killed, and 128 were injured. Elephant in Terai, common leopard and monkey in Middle Mountain, and snow leopard in high mountains were found as major problematic animals. Common leopard attacks were found more in the autumn, evening, and on human settlement area. Whereas elephant attacks were found higher in winter, day time, and on farmland. Poor people farmers were found highly victimized, and they were losing 26% of their income due to crop raiding and livestock depredation. On the other hand, people are killing many wildlife in revenge, and this number is increasing every year. Based on the people's perception, climate change is causing increased temperature and forest fire events and decreased water sources within the forest. Due to the scarcity of food and water within forests, wildlife are compelled to dwell at human settlement area, hence HWC events are increasing. Nevertheless, more than half of the respondents were found positive about conserving entire wildlife species. Forests outside PAs are under the community forestry (CF) system, which restored the forest, improved the habitat, and increased the wildlife.However, CF policies and programs were found to be more focused on forest management with least priority on wildlife conservation and HWC mitigation. Compensation / relief scheme of government for wildlife damage was found some how effective to manage HWC, but the lengthy process, being applicable to the damage of few wildlife species and highly increasing events made it necessary to revisit. Based on these facts, the study suggest to carry out awareness generation activities to the poor farmers, linking the property of people with the insurance scheme, conducting habitat management activities within CF, promoting the unpalatable crops, improvement of shed house of livestock, simplifying compensation scheme and establishing a fund at the district level and incorporating the wildlife conservation and HWCmitigation programs in CF. Finally, the study suggests to carry out rigorous researches to understand the impacts of current forest management practices on forest, biodiversity, wildlife, and HWC.

Keywords: community forest, conflict mitigation, wildlife conservation, climate change

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Authors: Shyamli Singh, Ishupinder Kaur, Vinod K. Sharma

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Climate Change refers to the change in climate for extended period of time. Climate is changing from the past history of earth but anthropogenic activities accelerate this rate of change and which is now being a global issue. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions is causing global warming and climate change related issues at an alarming rate. Increasing temperature results in climate variability across the globe. Changes in rainfall patterns, intensity and extreme events are some of the impacts of climate change. Rainfall variability refers to the degree to which rainfall patterns varies over a region (spatial) or through time period (temporal). Temporal rainfall variability can be directly or indirectly linked to climate change. Such variability in rainfall increases the vulnerability of communities towards climate change. Increasing urbanization and unplanned developmental activities, the air quality is deteriorating. This paper mainly focuses on the rainfall variability due to increasing level of greenhouse gases. Rainfall data of 65 years (1951-2015) of Safdarjung station of Delhi was collected from Indian Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann-Kendall test for time-series data analysis. Mann-Kendall test is a statistical tool helps in analysis of trend in the given data sets. The slope of the trend can be measured through Sen’s slope estimator. Data was analyzed monthly, seasonally and yearly across the period of 65 years. The monthly rainfall data for the said period do not follow any increasing or decreasing trend. Monsoon season shows no increasing trend but here was an increasing trend in the pre-monsoon season. Hence, the actual rainfall differs from the normal trend of the rainfall. Through this analysis, it can be projected that there will be an increase in pre-monsoon rainfall than the actual monsoon season. Pre-monsoon rainfall causes cooling effect and results in drier monsoon season. This will increase the vulnerability of communities towards climate change and also effect related developmental activities.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall variability, Sen's slope

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Authors: Bridgette Merriman, Wen Fan

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Background: Existing cancer survivorship literature explores varying physical, psychosocial, and psychological late effects experienced by survivors of childhood cancer. However, adolescent and young adult (AYA) survivors of childhood cancer are understudied compared to their adult and pediatric cancer counterparts. Furthermore, existing quality of life (QoL) research fails to account for how cancer survivorship affects survivors across the lifespan. Given that prior research suggests positive cognitive appraisals of adverse events - such as cancer - mitigate detrimental psychosocial symptomologies later in life; it is crucial to understand cancer’s impacts on AYA survivors of childhood malignancies across the life course in order to best support these individuals and prevent maladaptive psychosocial outcomes. Methods: This qualitative study adopted the life-course perspective to investigate the experiences of AYA survivors of childhood malignancies. Eligible patients included AYA 21-30 years old who were diagnosed with cancer <18 years old and off active treatment for >2 years. Participants were recruited through social media posts. Study fulfillment included taking part in one semi-structured video interview to explore areas of survivorship previously identified as being specific to AYA survivors. Interviews were transcribed, coded, and analyzed in accordance with narrative analysis and life-course theory. This study was approved by the Boston College Institutional Review Board. Results: Of 28 individuals who met inclusion criteria and expressed interest in the study, nineteen participants (12 women, 7 men, mean age 25.4 years old) completed the study. Life course theory analysis revealed that events relating to childhood cancer are interconnected throughout the life course rather than isolated events. This “trail of survivorship” includes age at diagnosis, transitioning to life after cancer, and relationships with other childhood survivors. Despite variability in objective characteristics surrounding these events, participants recalled positive experiences regarding at least one checkpoint, ultimately finding positive meaning from their cancer experience. Conclusions: These findings suggest that favorable subjective experiences at these checkpoints are critical in fostering positive conceptions of childhood malignancy for AYA survivors of childhood cancer. Ultimately, healthcare professionals and communities may use these findings to guide support resources and interventions for childhood cancer patients and AYA survivors, therein minimizing detrimental psychosocial effects and maximizing resiliency.

Keywords: medical sociology, pediatric oncology, survivorship, qualitative, life course perspective

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Authors: Euripides Antoniades

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In 1821, the Greek Revolution movement, under the political influence that arose from the French revolution, and the corresponding movements in Italy, Germany and America, demanded the liberation of the nation and the establishment of an independent national state. Published topics in the British press regarding the Greek Revolution, focused on: a)the right of the Greeks to claim their freedom from Turkish domination in order to establish an independent state based on the principle of national autonomy, b)criticism regarding Turkish rule as illegal and the power of the Ottoman Sultan as arbitrary, c)the recognition of the Greek identity and its distinction from the Turkish one and d)the endorsement Greeks as the descendants of ancient Greeks. The London Times is a print publication that presents, in chronological or thematic order, the news, opinions or announcements about the most important events that have occurred in a place during a specified period of time. A combination of qualitative and quantitative content analysis was applied. An attempt was made to record Greek Revolution references along with the usage of specific words and expressions that contribute to the representation of the historical events and their exposure to the reading public. Key finds of this research reveal that a)there was a frequency of passionate daily articles concerning the events in Greece, their length, and context in The Times of London, b)he British public opinion was influenced by this particular newspaper and c) he newspaper published various news about the revolution by adopting the role of animator of the Greek struggle. In fact, this type of news was the main substance of the The London Times’ structure, establishing a positive image about the Greek Revolution contributing to the European diplomatic development. These factors offered a change in the attitude of the British and Russians respectively assuming a positive approach towards Greece.

Keywords: Greece, revolution, press, the london times, great britain, mass media

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Authors: Mohamed Aboelghar, Ayman Abou Hadid, Usama Albehairy, Asmaa Khater

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Sustainable agricultural development of the desert areas of Egypt under the pressure of irrigation water scarcity is a significant national challenge. Existing water harvesting techniques on the northwest coast of Egypt do not ensure the optimal use of rainfall for agricultural purposes. Basin-scale hydrology potentialities were studied to investigate how available annual rainfall could be used to increase agricultural production. All data related to agricultural production included in the form of geospatial layers. Thematic classification of Sentinal-2 imagery was carried out to produce the land cover and crop maps following the (FAO) system of land cover classification. Contour lines and spot height points were used to create a digital elevation model (DEM). Then, DEM was used to delineate basins, sub-basins, and water outlet points using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Arc SWAT). Main soil units of the study area identified from Land Master Plan maps. Climatic data collected from existing official sources. The amount of precipitation, surface water runoff, potential, and actual evapotranspiration for the years (2004 to 2017) shown as results of (Arc SWAT). The land cover map showed that the two tree crops (olive and fig) cover 195.8 km2 when herbaceous crops (barley and wheat) cover 154 km2. The maximum elevation was 250 meters above sea level when the lowest one was 3 meters below sea level. The study area receives a massive variable amount of precipitation; however, water harvesting methods are inappropriate to store water for purposes.

Keywords: water catchements, remote sensing, GIS, sustainable agricultural development

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Authors: Martin Adlington, Boris Ceranic, Sally Shazhad

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In an effort to reduce carbon emissions, changes in UK regulations, such as Part L Conservation of heat and power, dictates improved thermal insulation and enhanced air tightness. These changes were a direct response to the UK Government being fully committed to achieving its carbon targets under the Climate Change Act 2008. The goal is to reduce emissions by at least 80% by 2050. Factors such as climate change are likely to exacerbate the problem of overheating, as this phenomenon expects to increase the frequency of extreme heat events exemplified by stagnant air masses and successive high minimum overnight temperatures. However, climate change is not the only concern relevant to overheating, as research signifies, location, design, and occupation; construction type and layout can also play a part. Because of this growing problem, research shows the possibility of health effects on occupants of buildings could be an issue. Increases in temperature can perhaps have a direct impact on the human body’s ability to retain thermoregulation and therefore the effects of heat-related illnesses such as heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat syncope and even death can be imminent. This review paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of the current literature on the causes and health effects of overheating in buildings and has examined the differing applied assessment approaches used to measure the concept. Firstly, an overview of the topic was presented followed by an examination of overheating research work from the last decade. These papers form the body of the article and are grouped into a framework matrix summarizing the source material identifying the differing methods of analysis of overheating. Cross case evaluation has identified systematic relationships between different variables within the matrix. Key areas focused on include, building types and country, occupants behavior, health effects, simulation tools, computational methods.

Keywords: overheating, climate change, thermal comfort, health

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Authors: Nurul Jamilah Binti Rosly

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The typology of motion must be understood as a change from one location to another. But from a conceptual point of view, motion can also occur in non-spatial contexts associated with human and social factors. Therefore, from the conceptual point of view, the concept of non-spatial motion involves the movement of time, ownership, identity, state, and existence. Accordingly, this study will focus on the lexical as shared, accept, be, store, and exist as the study material. The data in this study were extracted from the Database of Languages and Literature Corpus Database, Malaysia, which was analyzed using semantics and syntax concepts using Conceptual Structure Theory - Ray Jackendoff (2002). Semantic representations are represented in the form of conceptual structures in argument functions that include functions [events], [situations], [objects], [paths] and [places]. The findings show that the mapping of these arguments comprises three main stages, namely mapping the argument structure, mapping the tree, and mapping the role of thematic items. Accordingly, this study will show the representation of non- spatial Malay language areas.

Keywords: arguments, concepts, constituencies, events, situations, thematics

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Authors: Hussain-Abdulah Arjmand, Nikki S. Rickard

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The response to stress can be highly heterogenous, and may be influenced by methodological factors. The integrity of data will be optimized by measuring both positive and negative affective responses to an event, by measuring responses in real time as close to the stressful event as possible, and by utilizing data collection methods that do not interfere with naturalistic behaviours. The aim of the current study was to explore short term prototypical responses to major stressor events on outcome measures encompassing both positive and negative indicators of psychological functioning. A novel mobile experience sampling methodology (m-ESM) was utilized to monitor both effective responses to stressors in real time. A smartphone mental health app (‘Moodprism’) which prompts users daily to report both their positive and negative mood, as well as whether any significant event had occurred in the past 24 hours, was developed for this purpose. A sample of 142 participants was recruited as part of the promotion of this app. Participants’ daily reported experience of stressor events, levels of depressive symptoms and positive affect were collected across a 30 day period as they used the app. For each participant, major stressor events were identified on the subjective severity of the event rated by the user. Depression and positive affect ratings were extracted for the three days following the event. Responses to the event were scaled relative to their general reactivity across the remainder of the 30 day period. Participants were first clustered into groups based on initial reactivity and subsequent recovery following a stressor event. This revealed distinct patterns of responding along depressive symptomatology and positive affect. Participants were then grouped based on allocations to clusters in each outcome variable. A highly individualised nature in which participants respond to stressor events, in symptoms of depression and levels of positive affect, was observed. A complete description of the novel profiles identified will be presented at the conference. These findings suggest that real-time measurement of both positive and negative functioning to stressors yields a more complex set of responses than previously observed with retrospective reporting. The use of smartphone technology to measure individualized responding also proved to shed significant insight.

Keywords: depression, experience sampling methodology, positive functioning, resilience

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Authors: Hamed Mohamed Haggag

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Prior to 12 November 1955, no earthquakes have been reported from the Abu Dabbab area in the International Seismological Center catalogue (ISC). The largest earthquake in Abu Dabbab area occurred on November 12, 1955 with magnitude Mb 6.0. The closest station from the epicenter was at Helwan (about 700 km to the north), so the depth of this event is not constrained and no foreshocks or aftershocks were recorded. Two other earthquakes of magnitude Mb 4.5 and 5.2 took place in the same area on March 02, 1982 and July 02, 1984, respectively. Since the installation of Aswan Seismic Network stations in 1982, (250-300 km to the south-west of Abu Dabbab area) then the Egyptian Natoinal Seismic Network stations, it was possible to record some activity from Abu Dabbab area. The recorded earthquakes at Abu Dabbab area as recorded from 1982 to 2014 shows that the earthquake epicenters are distributed in the same direction of the main trends of the faults in the area, which is parallel to the Red Sea coast. The spectral analysis was made for some earthquakes. The source parameters, seismic moment (Mo), source dimension (r), stress drop (Δδ), and apparent stress (δ) are determined for these events. The spectral analysis technique was completed using MAG software program.

Keywords: Abu Dabbab, seismicity, seismic moment, source parameter

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Authors: Samain Sabrin, Joshua Pratt, Joshua Bryk, Maryam Karimi

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Globally, extreme heat events have led to a surge in the number of heat-related moralities. These incidents are further exacerbated in high-density population centers due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Varieties of anthropogenic activities such as unsupervised land surface modifications, expansion of impervious areas, and lack of use of vegetation are all contributors to an increase in the amount of heat flux trapped by an urban canopy which intensifies the UHI effect. This project aims to propose a systematic approach to measure the impact of air quality and increased temperature based on urban morphology in the selected metropolitan cities. This project will measure the impact of build environment for urban and regional planning using human biometeorological evaluations (mean radiant temperature, Tmrt). We utilized the Rayman model (capable of calculating short and long wave radiation fluxes affecting the human body) to estimate the Tmrt in an urban environment incorporating location and height of buildings and trees as a supplemental tool in urban planning, and street design. Our current results suggest a strong correlation between building height and increased surface temperature in megacities. This model will help with; 1. Quantify the impacts of the built environment and surface properties on surrounding temperature, 2. Identify priority urban neighborhoods by analyzing Tmrt and air quality data at pedestrian level, 3. Characterizing the need for urban green infrastructure or better urban planning- maximizing the cooling benefit from existing Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI), and 4. Developing a hierarchy of streets for new UGI integration and propose new UGI based on site characteristics and cooling potential.

Keywords: air quality, heat mitigation, human-biometeorological indices, increased temperature, mean radiant temperature, radiation flux, sustainable development, thermal comfort, urban canopy, urban planning

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Authors: Mohadese Oghbaee, Borna Firouzi

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The emergence of the Internet and more specifically the formation of social media has provided the ground for paying attention to new types of content dissemination. In recent years, Social media users share information, communicate with others, and exchange opinions on social events in this space. Many of the information published in this space are suspicious and produced with the intention of deceiving others. These contents are often called "fake news". Fake news, by disrupting the circulation of the concept and similar concepts such as fake news with correct information and misleading public opinion, has the ability to endanger the security of countries and deprive the audience of the basic right of free access to real information; Competing governments, opposition elements, profit-seeking individuals and even competing organizations, knowing about this capacity, act to distort and overturn the facts in the virtual space of the target countries and communities on a large scale and influence public opinion towards their goals. This process of extensive de-truthing of the information space of the societies has created a wave of harm and worries all over the world. The formation of these concerns has led to the opening of a new path of research for the timely containment and reduction of the destructive effects of fake news on public opinion. In addition, the expansion of this phenomenon has the potential to create serious and important problems for societies, and its impact on events such as the 2016 American elections, Brexit, 2017 French elections, 2019 Indian elections, etc., has caused concerns and led to the adoption of approaches It has been dealt with. In recent years, a simple look at the growth trend of research in "Scopus" shows an increasing increase in research with the keyword "false information", which reached its peak in 2020, namely 524 cases, reached, while in 2015, only 30 scientific-research contents were published in this field. Considering that one of the capabilities of social media is to create a context for the dissemination of news and information, both true and false, in this article, the classification of strategies for spreading fake news in social networks was investigated in social events. To achieve this goal, thematic analysis research method was chosen. In this way, an extensive library study was first conducted in global sources. Then, an in-depth interview was conducted with 18 well-known specialists and experts in the field of news and media in Iran. These experts were selected by purposeful sampling. Then by analyzing the data using the theme analysis method, strategies were obtained; The strategies achieved so far (research is in progress) include unrealistically strengthening/weakening the speed and content of the event, stimulating psycho-media movements, targeting emotional audiences such as women, teenagers and young people, strengthening public hatred, calling the reaction legitimate/illegitimate. events, incitement to physical conflict, simplification of violent protests and targeted publication of images and interviews were introduced.

Keywords: fake news, social network, social events, thematic analysis

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Authors: Kirsten A. Bartels

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'Never again' and 'Lest we forget' have long been messages associated with the events of the Shoah. Yet as we attempt to learn from the past, we must find new ways to engage with its memories. The preservation of the culture and the value of tradition are critical factors in Jane Yolen's works of Holocaust fiction, The Devil's Arithmetic and Mapping the Bones, emphasized through the importance of remembering. That word, in its multitude of forms (remember, remembering, memories), occurs no less than ten times in the first four pages and over one hundred times in the one hundred and sixty-four-page narrative The Devil’s Arithmetic. While Yolen takes a different approach to showcasing the importance of memory in Mapping the Bones, it is of equal import in this work and arguably to the future of Holocaust knowing. The idea of remembering, the desire to remember, and the ability to remember, are explored in three divergent ways in The Devil’s Arithmetic. First, in the importance to remember a past which is not her own – to understand history or acquired memories. Second, in the protagonist's actual or initial memories, those of her life in modern-day New York. Third, in a reverse mode of forgetting and trying to reacquire that which has been lost -- as Hannah is processed in the camp and she forgets everything, all worlds prior to the camp are lost to her. As numbers replace names, Yolen stresses the importance of self-identity or owned memories. In addition, the importance of relaying memory, the transitions of memory from perspective, and the ideas of reflective telling are explored in Mapping the Bones -- through the telling of the story through the lens of one of the twins as the events are unfolding; and then the through the reflective telling from the lens of the other twin. Parallel to the exploration of the intersemiosis of memory is the discussion of literary shadows (foreshadowing, backshadowing, and side-shadowing) and their impact on the reader's experience with Yolen's narrative. For in this type of exploration, one cannot look at the events described in Yolen's work and not also contemplate the figurative shadows cast.

Keywords: holocaust literature, memory, narrative, Yolen

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Authors: Emmanuel Yussuf, John Muthama, John Ng'ang'A

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There has been increasing noise levels all over the world in the last decade. Many factors contribute to this increase, which is causing health related effects to humans. Developing countries are not left out of the whole picture as they are still growing and advancing their development. Motor vehicles are increasing on urban roads; there is an increase in infrastructure due to the rising population, increasing number of industries to provide goods and so many other activities. All this activities lead to the high noise levels in cities. This study was conducted in Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD) with the main objective of simulating noise levels in order to understand the noise exposed to the people within the urban area, in relation to weather parameters namely temperature, rainfall and wind field. The study was achieved using the Neighbourhood Proximity Model and Time Series Analysis, with data obtained from proxies/remotely-sensed from satellites, in order to establish the levels of noise exposed to which people of Nairobi CBD are exposed to. The findings showed that there is an increase in temperature (0.1°C per year) and a decrease in precipitation (40 mm per year), which in comparison to the noise levels in the area, are increasing. The study also found out that noise levels exposed to people in Nairobi CBD were roughly between 61 and 63 decibels and has been increasing, a level which is high and likely to cause adverse physical and psychological effects on the human body in which air temperature, precipitation and wind contribute so much in the spread of noise. As a noise reduction measure, the use of sound proof materials in buildings close to busy roads, implementation of strict laws to most emitting sources as well as further research on the study was recommended. The data used for this study ranged from the year 2000 to 2015, rainfall being in millimeters (mm), temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) and the urban form characteristics being in meters (m).

Keywords: simulation, noise exposure, weather, proxy

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Authors: Deborah Weidner, Melissa Morgera

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The model of care delivery in the Behavioral Health Network (BHN) is integrated across all five regions of Hartford Healthcare and thus spans the entirety of the state of Connecticut, with care provided in seven inpatient settings and over 30 ambulatory outpatient locations. While safety has been a core priority of the BHN in alignment with High Reliability practices, safety initiatives have historically been facilitated locally in each region or within each entity, with interventions implemented locally as opposed to throughout the network. To address this, the BHN introduced a network wide Safety Huddle during 2022. Launched in January, the BHN Safety Huddle brought together internal stakeholders, including medical and administrative leaders, along with executive institute leadership, quality, and risk management. By bringing leaders together and introducing a network-wide safety huddle into the way we work, the benefit has been an increase in awareness of safety events occurring in behavioral health areas as well as increased systemization of countermeasures to prevent future events. One significant discussion topic presented in huddles has pertained to environmental design and patient access to potentially dangerous items, addressing some of the most relevant factors resulting in harm to patients in inpatient and emergency settings for behavioral health patients. The safety huddle has improved visibility of potential environmental safety risks through the generation of over 15 safety alerts cascaded throughout the BHN and also spurred a rapid improvement project focused on standardization of patient belonging searches to reduce patient access to potentially dangerous items on inpatient units. Safety events pertaining to potentially dangerous items decreased by 31% as a result of standardized interventions implemented across the network and as a result of increased awareness. A second positive outcome originating from the BHN Safety Huddle was implementation of a recommendation to increase the emergency Narcan®(naloxone) supply on hand in ambulatory settings of the BHN after incidents involving accidental overdose resulted in higher doses of naloxone administration. By increasing the emergency supply of naloxone on hand in all ambulatory and residential settings, colleagues are better prepared to respond in an emergency situation should a patient experience an overdose while on site. Lastly, discussions in safety huddle spurred a new initiative within the BHN to improve responsiveness to assaultive incidents through a consultation service. This consult service, aligned with one of the network’s improvement priorities to reduce harm events related to assaultive incidents, was borne out of discussion in huddle in which it was identified that additional interventions may be needed in providing clinical care to patients who are experiencing multiple and/ or frequent safety events.

Keywords: quality, safety, behavioral health, risk management

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Authors: Manu Manu, Pardha J. Saradhi, Ramana M. V. Murthy

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Wind Energy is accepted as one of the most developed, cost effective and proven renewable energy technologies to meet increasing electricity demands in a sustainable manner. Preliminary assessment studies along Indian Coastline by Ministry of New and Renewable Energy have indicated prospects for development of offshore wind power along Tamil Nadu Coast, India. The commercial viability of a wind project mainly depends on wind characteristics on site. Hence, it is internationally recommended to perform site-specific wind resource assessment based on two years’ wind profile as a part of the feasibility study. Conventionally, guy wire met mast are used onshore for the collection of wind profile. Installation of similar structure in offshore requires complex marine spread and are very expensive. In the present study, an attempt is made to develop 120 m long lattice tower supported on the jacket, piled to the seabed at Rameshwaram, Tamil Nadu, India. Offshore met-masts are subjected to combined wind and hydrodynamic loads, and these lateral loads should be safely transferred to soil. The wind loads are estimated based on gust factor method, and the hydrodynamic loads are estimated by Morison’s equation along with suitable wave theory. The soil is modeled as three nonlinear orthogonal springs based on API standards. The structure configuration and optimum member sizes are obtained for extreme cyclone events. The dynamic behavior of mast under coupled wind and wave loads is also studied. The static responses of a mast with jacket type offshore platform have been studied using a frame model in SESAM. It is found from the study that the maximum displacement at the top of the mast for the random wave is 0.003 m and that of the tower for wind is 0.08 m during the steady state. The dynamic analysis results indicate that the structure is safe against coupled wind and wave loading.

Keywords: offshore wind, mast, static, aerodynamic load, hydrodynamic load

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Authors: Elena Mugarza, Stephanie Glendinning, Ross Stirling, Colin Davies

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The effects of climate change and increased rainfall events on UK-based infrastructure are observable, with an increasing number being reported on in the national press. The fatal derailment at Stonehaven in 2020 prompted a wider review of Network Rail-owned earthworks assets. The event was indicated by the Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) to be caused by mis-installed drainage on the adjacent cutting. The slope failure on Snake Pass (public highway A57) was reportedly caused by significant water ingress following numerous storm events and resulted in the road’s closure for several months. This problem is only projected to continue with greater intensity and more prolonged rainfall events forecasted in the future. Subsequently, this project is designed to evaluate effective drainage trench design within infrastructure embankments, considering the capillary barrier phenomenon that may govern their deterioration and resultant failure. Theoretically, the differential between grain sizes of the embankment clays and gravels, customarily used in drainage trenches, would have a limiting effect on infiltration. As such, it is anticipated that the inclusion of an additional material with an intermediate grain size should improve the hydraulic conductivity across the drainage boundary. Multiple drainage designs will be studied using instrumentation within the drain and surrounding clays. Data from the real-world installation at the BIONICS embankment will be collected and compared with laboratory and Finite Element (FE) simulations. This research aims to reduce the risk of infrastructure slope failures by improving the resilience of earthwork drainage and lessening the consequential impact on transportation networks.

Keywords: earthworks, slope drainage, transportation slopes, deterioration, capillary barriers, field study

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Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

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Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

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Authors: H. Dakhlaoui, D. Ruelland, Y. Tramblay, Z. Bargaoui

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To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that are able to be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. This study aims at assessing the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in Northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability. Their robustness was evaluated according to a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period regarding simultaneously precipitation and temperature conditions. The studied catchments are situated in a region where climate change is likely to have significant impacts on runoff and they already suffer from scarcity of water resources. They cover the main hydrographical basins of Northern Tunisia (High Medjerda, Zouaraâ, Ichkeul and Cap bon), which produce the majority of surface water resources in Tunisia. The streamflow regime of the basins can be considered as natural since these basins are located upstream from storage-dams and in areas where withdrawals are negligible. A 30-year common period (1970‒2000) was considered to capture a large spread of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while the evaluation of model transferability is performed according to the Nash-Suttfliff efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to have similar behaviour under climate variability. Models prove a better ability to simulate the runoff pattern when transferred toward wetter periods compared to the case when transferred to drier periods. The limits of transferability are beyond -20% of precipitation and +1.5 °C of temperature in comparison with the calibration period. The deterioration of model robustness could in part be explained by the climate dependency of some parameters.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff modelling, hydro-climate variability, model robustness, uncertainty, Tunisia

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