Search results for: Amman Stock Exchange
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2158

Search results for: Amman Stock Exchange

1528 Secure Text Steganography for Microsoft Word Document

Authors: Khan Farhan Rafat, M. Junaid Hussain

Abstract:

Seamless modification of an entity for the purpose of hiding a message of significance inside its substance in a manner that the embedding remains oblivious to an observer is known as steganography. Together with today's pervasive registering frameworks, steganography has developed into a science that offers an assortment of strategies for stealth correspondence over the globe that must, however, need a critical appraisal from security breach standpoint. Microsoft Word is amongst the preferably used word processing software, which comes as a part of the Microsoft Office suite. With a user-friendly graphical interface, the richness of text editing, and formatting topographies, the documents produced through this software are also most suitable for stealth communication. This research aimed not only to epitomize the fundamental concepts of steganography but also to expound on the utilization of Microsoft Word document as a carrier for furtive message exchange. The exertion is to examine contemporary message hiding schemes from security aspect so as to present the explorative discoveries and suggest enhancements which may serve a wellspring of information to encourage such futuristic research endeavors.

Keywords: hiding information in plain sight, stealth communication, oblivious information exchange, conceal, steganography

Procedia PDF Downloads 225
1527 Analysis of Learning Difficulties among Preservice Students towards Science Education

Authors: Nahla Khatib

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This study investigated several learning difficulties that affected the classroom learning experience of preservice students who are studying general science and methods of teaching science students at Faculty of Educational Studies at the Arab Open University (AOU) in Amman, Jordan. The focus questions for this study were to find answers for the following: 1. What are the main areas of learning difficulty among preservice students towards science education? 2. What are the main aspects of reducing obstacles towards success in science education? To achieve this goal, the researcher prepared a questionnaire which included 30 items to point out the learning difficulties among preservice students towards science education. The questionnaire was distributed among students enrolled in the general science courses 1&2 and methods of teaching science courses at the beginning of the spring semester of year (2013-2014). After collecting the filled questionnaire a descriptive statistical analysis was carried out (means and standard deviation) for the items of the questionnaire. After analyzing the data statistically our findings showed that student control–factors as well as course controlled factor, factors related to the nature of science, and factors related to the role of instructor affected student success toward science education. The study was concluded with a number of recommendations.

Keywords: nature of science, preservice teachers, science education, learning difficulties

Procedia PDF Downloads 336
1526 Life Cycle Assessment Comparison between Methanol and Ethanol Feedstock for the Biodiesel from Soybean Oil

Authors: Pawit Tangviroon, Apichit Svang-Ariyaskul

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As the limited availability of petroleum-based fuel has been a major concern, biodiesel is one of the most attractive alternative fuels because it is renewable and it also has advantages over the conventional petroleum-base diesel. At Present, productions of biodiesel generally perform by transesterification of vegetable oils with low molecular weight alcohol, mainly methanol, using chemical catalysts. Methanol is petrochemical product that makes biodiesel producing from methanol to be not pure renewable energy source. Therefore, ethanol as a product produced by fermentation processes. It appears as a potential feed stock that makes biodiesel to be pure renewable alternative fuel. The research is conducted based on two biodiesel production processes by reacting soybean oils with methanol and ethanol. Life cycle assessment was carried out in order to evaluate the environmental impacts and to identify the process alternative. Nine mid-point impact categories are investigated. The results indicate that better performance on Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP) and Acidification Potential (AP) are observed in biodiesel production from methanol when compared with biodiesel production from ethanol due to less energy consumption during the production processes. Except for ADP and AP, using methanol as feed stock does not show any advantages over biodiesel from ethanol. The single score method is also included in this study in order to identify the best option between two processes of biodiesel production. The global normalization and weighting factor based on eco-taxes are used and it shows that producing biodiesel form ethanol has less environmental load compare to biodiesel from methanol.

Keywords: biodiesel, ethanol, life cycle assessment, methanol, soybean oil

Procedia PDF Downloads 199
1525 The Log S-fbm Nested Factor Model

Authors: Othmane Zarhali, Cécilia Aubrun, Emmanuel Bacry, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Jean-François Muzy

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The Nested factor model was introduced by Bouchaud and al., where the asset return fluctuations are explained by common factors representing the market economic sectors and residuals (noises) sharing with the factors a common dominant volatility mode in addition to the idiosyncratic mode proper to each residual. This construction infers that the factors-residuals log volatilities are correlated. Here, we consider the case of a single factor where the only dominant common mode is a S-fbm process (introduced by Peng, Bacry and Muzy) with Hurst exponent H around 0.11 and the residuals having in addition to the previous common mode idiosyncratic components with Hurst exponents H around 0. The reason for considering this configuration is twofold: preserve the Nested factor model’s characteristics introduced by Bouchaud and al. and propose a framework through which the stylized fact reported by Peng and al. is reproduced, where it has been observed that the Hurst exponents of stock indices are large as compared to those of individual stocks. In this work, we show that the Log S-fbm Nested factor model’s construction leads to a Hurst exponent of single stocks being the ones of the idiosyncratic volatility modes and the Hurst exponent of the index being the one of the common volatility modes. Furthermore, we propose a statistical procedure to estimate the Hurst factor exponent from the stock returns dynamics together with theoretical guarantees, with good results in the limit where the number of stocks N goes to infinity. Last but not least, we show that the factor can be seen as an index constructed from the single stocks weighted by specific coefficients.

Keywords: hurst exponent, log S-fbm model, nested factor model, small intermittency approximation

Procedia PDF Downloads 26
1524 Adsorptive Desulfurization of Using Cu(I) – Y Zeolite via π-Complexation

Authors: Moshe Mello, Hilary Rutto, Tumisang Seodigeng, Itumeleng Kohitlhetse

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The accelerating requirement to reach 0% sulfur content in liquid fuels demand researchers to seek efficient alternative technologies to challenge the predicament. In this current study, the adsorption capabilities of modified Cu(I)-Y zeolite were tested for the removal of organosulfur compounds (OSC) present in tire pyrolytic oil (TPO). The π-complexation-based adsorbent was obtained by ion exchanging Y-zeolite with Cu+ cation using liquid phase ion exchange (LPIE). Preparation of the adsorbent involved firstly ion exchange between Na-Y zeolite with a Cu(NO₃)₂ aqueous solution of 0.5M for 48 hours followed by reduction of Cu²⁺ to Cu+. Fixed-bed breakthrough studies for TPO in comparison with model diesel comprising of sulfur compounds such as thiophene, benzothiophenes (BT), and dibenzothiophenes (DBT) showed that modified Cu(I)-Y zeolite is an effective adsorbent for removal of OSC in liquid fuels. The effect of operating conditions such as adsorbent dosage and reaction time were studied to optimize the adsorptive desulfurization process. For model diesel fuel, the selectivity for adsorption of sulfur compounds followed the order DBT> BT> Thiophene. The Cu(I)-Y zeolite is fully regeneratable and this is achieved by a simple procedure of blowing the adsorbent with air at 350 °C, followed by reactivation at 450 °C in a rich helium surrounding.

Keywords: adsorption, desulfurization, TPO, zeolite

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
1523 Detecting Financial Bubbles Using Gap between Common Stocks and Preferred Stocks

Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
1522 The Charge Exchange and Mixture Formation Model in the ASz-62IR Radial Aircraft Engine

Authors: Pawel Magryta, Tytus Tulwin, Paweł Karpiński

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The ASz62IR engine is a radial aircraft engine with 9 cylinders. This object is produced by the Polish company WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A. This is engine is currently being developed by the above company and Lublin University of Technology. In order to provide an effective work of the technological development of this unit it was decided to made the simulation model. The model of ASz-62IR was developed with AVL BOOST software which is a tool dedicated to the one-dimensional modeling of internal combustion engines. This model can be used to calculate parameters of an air and fuel flow in an intake system including charging devices as well as combustion and exhaust flow to the environment. The main purpose of this model is the analysis of the charge exchange and mixture formation in this engine. For this purpose, the model consists of elements such: as air inlet, throttle system, compressor connector, charging compressor, inlet pipes and injectors, outlet pipes, fuel injection and model of fuel mixing and evaporation. The model of charge exchange and mixture formation was based on the model of mass flow rate in intake and exhaust pipes, and also on the calculation of gas properties values like gas constant or thermal capacity. This model was based on the equations to describe isentropic flow. The energy equation to describe flow under steady conditions was transformed into the mass flow equation. In the model the flow coefficient μσ was used, that varies with the stroke/valve opening and was determined in a steady flow state. The geometry of the inlet channels and other key components was mapped with reference to the technical documentation of the engine and empirical measurements of the structure elements. The volume of elements on the charge flow path between the air inlet and the exhaust outlet was measured by the CAD mapping of the structure. Taken from the technical documentation, the original characteristics of the compressor engine was entered into the model. Additionally, the model uses a general model for the transport of chemical compounds of the mixture. There are 7 compounds used, i.e. fuel, O2, N2, CO2, H2O, CO, H2. A gasoline fuel of a calorific value of 43.5 MJ/kg and an air mass fraction for stoichiometric mixture of 14.5 were used. Indirect injection into the intake manifold is used in this model. The model assumes the following simplifications: the mixture is homogenous at the beginning of combustion, accordingly, mixture stoichiometric coefficient A/F remains constant during combustion, combusted and non-combusted charges show identical pressures and temperatures although their compositions change. As a result of the simulation studies based on the model described above, the basic parameters of combustion process, charge exchange, mixture formation in cylinders were obtained. The AVL Boost software is very useful for the piston engine performance simulations. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: aviation propulsion, AVL Boost, engine model, charge exchange, mixture formation

Procedia PDF Downloads 305
1521 Transport Mode Selection under Lead Time Variability and Emissions Constraint

Authors: Chiranjit Das, Sanjay Jharkharia

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This study is focused on transport mode selection under lead time variability and emissions constraint. In order to reduce the carbon emissions generation due to transportation, organization has often faced a dilemmatic choice of transport mode selection since logistic cost and emissions reduction are complementary with each other. Another important aspect of transportation decision is lead-time variability which is least considered in transport mode selection problem. Thus, in this study, we provide a comprehensive mathematical based analytical model to decide transport mode selection under emissions constraint. We also extend our work through analysing the effect of lead time variability in the transport mode selection by a sensitivity analysis. In order to account lead time variability into the model, two identically normally distributed random variables are incorporated in this study including unit lead time variability and lead time demand variability. Therefore, in this study, we are addressing following questions: How the decisions of transport mode selection will be affected by lead time variability? How lead time variability will impact on total supply chain cost under carbon emissions? To accomplish these objectives, a total transportation cost function is developed including unit purchasing cost, unit transportation cost, emissions cost, holding cost during lead time, and penalty cost for stock out due to lead time variability. A set of modes is available to transport each node, in this paper, we consider only four transport modes such as air, road, rail, and water. Transportation cost, distance, emissions level for each transport mode is considered as deterministic and static in this paper. Each mode is having different emissions level depending on the distance and product characteristics. Emissions cost is indirectly affected by the lead time variability if there is any switching of transport mode from lower emissions prone transport mode to higher emissions prone transport mode in order to reduce penalty cost. We provide a numerical analysis in order to study the effectiveness of the mathematical model. We found that chances of stock out during lead time will be higher due to the higher variability of lead time and lad time demand. Numerical results show that penalty cost of air transport mode is negative that means chances of stock out zero, but, having higher holding and emissions cost. Therefore, air transport mode is only selected when there is any emergency order to reduce penalty cost, otherwise, rail and road transport is the most preferred mode of transportation. Thus, this paper is contributing to the literature by a novel approach to decide transport mode under emissions cost and lead time variability. This model can be extended by studying the effect of lead time variability under some other strategic transportation issues such as modal split option, full truck load strategy, and demand consolidation strategy etc.

Keywords: carbon emissions, inventory theoretic model, lead time variability, transport mode selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 413
1520 Value in Exchange: The Importance of Users Interaction as the Center of User Experiences

Authors: Ramlan Jantan, Norfadilah Kamaruddin, Shahriman Zainal Abidin

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In this era of technology, the co-creation method has become a new development trend. In this light, most design businesses have currently transformed their development strategy from being goods-dominant into service-dominant where more attention is given to the end-users and their roles in the development process. As a result, the conventional development process has been replaced with a more cooperative one. Consequently, numerous studies have been conducted to explore the extension of co-creation method in the design development process and most studies have focused on issues found during the production process. In the meantime, this study aims to investigate potential values established during the pre-production process, which is also known as the ‘circumstances value creation’. User involvement is questioned and crucially debate at the entry level of pre-production process in value in-exchange jointly spheres; thus user experiences took place. Thus, this paper proposed a potential framework of the co-creation method for Malaysian interactive product development. The framework is formulated from both parties involved: the users and designers. The framework will clearly give an explanation of the value of the co-creation method, and it could assist relevant design industries/companies in developing a blueprint for the design process. This paper further contributes to the literature on the co-creation of value and digital ecosystems.

Keywords: co-creation method, co-creation framework, co-creation, co-production

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
1519 Community Forest Management and Ecological and Economic Sustainability: A Two-Way Street

Authors: Sony Baral, Harald Vacik

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This study analyzes the sustainability of community forest management in two community forests in Terai and Hills of Nepal, representing four forest types: 1) Shorearobusta, 2) Terai hardwood, 3) Schima-Castanopsis, and 4) other Hills. The sustainability goals for this region include maintaining and enhancing the forest stocks. Considering this, we analysed changes in species composition, stand density, growing stock volume, and growth-to-removal ratio at 3-5 year intervals from 2005-2016 within 109 permanent forest plots (57 in the Terai and 52 in the Hills). To complement inventory data, forest users, forest committee members, and forest officials were consulted. The results indicate that the relative representation of economically valuable tree species has increased. Based on trends in stand density, both forests are being sustainably managed. Pole-sized trees dominated the diameter distribution, however, with a limited number of mature trees and declined regeneration. The forests were over-harvested until 2013 but under-harvested in the recent period in the Hills. In contrast, both forest types were under-harvested throughout the inventory period in the Terai. We found that the ecological dimension of sustainable forest management is strongly achieved while the economic dimension is lacking behind the current potential. Thus, we conclude that maintaining a large number of trees in the forest does not necessarily ensure both ecological and economical sustainability. Instead, priority should be given on a rational estimation of the annual harvest rates to enhance forest resource conditions together with regular benefits to the local communities.

Keywords: community forests, diversity, growing stock, forest management, sustainability, nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
1518 Experimental Investigation of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells Operated with Nano Fiber and Nano Fiber/Nano Particle

Authors: Kevser Dincer, Basma Waisi, M. Ozan Ozdemir, Ugur Pasaogullari, Jeffrey McCutcheon

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Nanofibers are defined as fibers with diameters less than 100 nanometers. They can be produced by interfacial polymerization, electrospinning and electrostatic spinning. In this study, behaviours of activated carbon nano fiber (ACNF), carbon nano-fiber (CNF), Polyacrylonitrile/carbon nanotube (PAN/CNT), Polyvinyl alcohol/nano silver (PVA/Ag) in PEM fuel cells are investigated experimentally. This material was used as gas diffusion layer (GDL) in PEM fuel cells. When the performances of these cells are compared to each other at 5x5 cm2 cell, it is found that the PVA/Ag exhibits the best performance among all. In this work, nano fiber and nano fiber/nano particles electrical conductivities have been studied to understand their effects on PEM fuel cell performance. According to the experimental results, the maximum electrical conductivity performance of the fuel cell with nanofiber was found to be at PVA/Ag. The electrical conductivities of CNF, ACNF, PAN/CNT are lower for PEM. The resistance of cell with PVA/Ag is lower than the resistance of cell with PAN/CNT, ACNF, CNF.

Keywords: proton exchange membrane fuel cells, electrospinning, carbon nano fiber, activate carbon nano-fiber, PVA fiber, PAN fiber, carbon nanotube, nano particle nanocomposites

Procedia PDF Downloads 371
1517 Lean Manufacturing Implementation in Fused Plastic Bags Industry

Authors: Tareq Issa

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Lean manufacturing is concerned with the implementation of several tools and methodologies that aim for the continuous elimination of wastes throughout manufacturing process flow in the production system. This research addresses the implementation of lean principles and tools in a small-medium industry focusing on 'fused' plastic bags production company in Amman, Jordan. In this production operation, the major type of waste to eliminate include material, waiting-transportation, and setup wastes. The primary goal is to identify and implement selected lean strategies to eliminate waste in the manufacturing process flow. A systematic approach was used for the implementation of lean principles and techniques, through the application of Value Stream Mapping analysis. The current state value stream map was constructed to improve the plastic bags manufacturing process through identifying opportunities to eliminate waste and its sources. Also, the future-state value stream map was developed describing improvements in the overall manufacturing process resulting from eliminating wastes. The implementation of VSM, 5S, Kanban, Kaizen, and Reduced lot size methods have provided significant benefits and results. Productivity has increased to 95.4%, delivery schedule attained at 99-100%, reduction in total inventory to 1.4 days and the setup time for the melting process was reduced to about 30 minutes.

Keywords: lean implementation, plastic bags industry, value stream map, process flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 160
1516 Determinants of Dividend Payout Ratio: Evidence form MENA Region

Authors: Abdul-Nasser El-Kassar, Walid Elgammal, Hisham Jawhar

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This paper studies the determinants of the dividends payout ratio. The factors affecting the dividends payout ratio are to be identified. The study focuses only on the cement and construction industry within the MENA region in an attempt to isolate any incoherent behavior. The factors under consideration are: sales growth, ROE, ROA, ROS, debt to equity ratio, firm size, and free cash flow. Data were collected from official stock exchange markets in addition to annual reports. The study considered all firms that paid dividend in each of the three consecutive years starting from 2010 till 2012. Out of the 123 listed firms that work in cement and construction industry in MENA region, only 19 paid dividends in the three consecutive years 2010-12. Our sample consists of the 19 firms (57 observations) which are selected according to purposive sampling. Moreover, the study uses the homogeneous subcategory within the purposive sampling since only similar firms in the construction industry had been examined. The outcome of the study provides a vital insight into the determinants of dividends payout ratio of companies in MENA region. The results showed that the dividend payout ratio has a strong and positive relationship with return on assets and strong but negative relationship with return on equity. On the other hand, the results detected weak relationships between dividend payout ratio and sale growth, debt to equity ratio, firm size, and free cash flow. The study suggests that board of directors tend to compensate shareholders and minimize the agency cost by distributing a high portion of profits in form of dividends whenever return on equity decreases. Also, when the performance of the firm improves, and hence return on assets increases, boards of directors are more generous in distributing profits.

Keywords: dividends payout ratio, profitability firm size, free cashflow, debt to equity ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
1515 The Impact of Non-Oil Revenue on Nigeria’s Economic Growth and Development

Authors: Abubakar O. Sulaiman

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Agriculture was the main stay of Nigeria’s economy before the oil boom of the 1970s caused a gradual but steady shift from agriculture to crude oil as the major source of revenue and foreign exchange. The economy later experienced many symptoms of the 'Dutch disease', with exchange rate appreciation and erosion of competitiveness of the non-oil tradable goods. In order to reverse the worsening economic situations -high unemployment, galloping inflation, deteriorating balance of payment, declining economic growth, and fiscal deficits among others- the government, embarked on austerity measures in 1982 and Structure Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986. One of the cornerstones of SAP is the diversification of the economy from oil to non-oil. In the form of stocktaking, this paper investigates the impact of non-oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly time-series data from 1980 to 2019. The findings revealed that a long-run relationship exists between the variables (non-oil variables) and economic growth in Nigeria. Among the variables, (agriculture revenue, manufacturing revenue, revenue from services, and company income tax) contributed substantially to economic growth. The paper recommends that the government should continue to intensify efforts and policies in the diversification of the economy as it will bring about sustainable non-oil revenue and economic growth.

Keywords: non-oil revenue, economic growth, export, long run relationship

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
1514 Shariah Perspective on Legal Framework and Practice of Margin Financing in Pakistan

Authors: Anees Tahir

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Margin financing plays a significant role in Pakistan's stock market (PSX), offering investors the opportunity to maximize profits by borrowing funds from financiers to purchase marginable stocks. However, this financial practice raises several Shariah-related concerns. The study follows legal doctrinal research methodology. It explains and analyzes the law of margin financing prevailing in PSX and compares it with the principles of Shariah. It also examines and investigates the practices of margin financing from the perspective of Shariah. As part of the study, the researcher has conducted structured interviews with the Shariah advisors of the finance industry, academicians, market practitioners, and regulators. Thus, the study analyzes the findings of interviews. This article explores the legal framework and practice of margin financing in Pakistan from a Shariah perspective. The article investigates various issues relating to margin financing, including the fundamental concern of interest-based lending, which contravenes Islamic principles. It also highlights the problematic subject matter of margin financing, often involving non-Shariah compliant securities. Additionally, the article addresses the restriction on proprietary rights and the problematic element of speculation associated with margin financing. To provide a Shariah-compliant alternative, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) introduced Murabahah Shares Financing (MSF) in 2019. However, the focus of the market is still on conventional margin financing. In the opinion of the researcher, the effective implementation of MSF is imperative because in the absence of such an alternative, the faith sensitive investor will remain deprived of a level playing field, and he is unable to get required financing opportunities through a halal and Shariah-compliant manner. This article argues that margin financing in its current form is incompatible with Shariah principles and should be discontinued. It is recommended that the SECP should gradually phase out the use of margin financing and increase reliance on MSF to provide faith-sensitive and committed investors with Shariah-compliant financing options.

Keywords: margin financing, marginable stocks, faith sensitive investor, Murabahah shares financing

Procedia PDF Downloads 54
1513 Poly (3,4-Ethylenedioxythiophene) Prepared by Vapor Phase Polymerization for Stimuli-Responsive Ion-Exchange Drug Delivery

Authors: M. Naveed Yasin, Robert Brooke, Andrew Chan, Geoffrey I. N. Waterhouse, Drew Evans, Darren Svirskis, Ilva D. Rupenthal

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Poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT) is a robust conducting polymer (CP) exhibiting high conductivity and environmental stability. It can be synthesized by either chemical, electrochemical or vapour phase polymerization (VPP). Dexamethasone sodium phosphate (dexP) is an anionic drug molecule which has previously been loaded onto PEDOT as a dopant via electrochemical polymerisation; however this technique requires conductive surfaces from which polymerization is initiated. On the other hand, VPP produces highly organized biocompatible CP structures while polymerization can be achieved onto a range of surfaces with a relatively straight forward scale-up process. Following VPP of PEDOT, dexP can be loaded and subsequently released via ion-exchange. This study aimed at preparing and characterising both non-porous and porous VPP PEDOT structures including examining drug loading and release via ion-exchange. Porous PEDOT structures were prepared by first depositing a sacrificial polystyrene (PS) colloidal template on a substrate, heat curing this deposition and then spin coating it with the oxidant solution (iron tosylate) at 1500 rpm for 20 sec. VPP of both porous and non-porous PEDOT was achieved by exposing to monomer vapours in a vacuum oven at 40 mbar and 40 °C for 3 hrs. Non-porous structures were prepared similarly on the same substrate but without any sacrificial template. Surface morphology, compositions and behaviour were then characterized by atomic force microscopy (AFM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and cyclic voltammetry (CV) respectively. Drug loading was achieved by 50 CV cycles in a 0.1 M dexP aqueous solution. For drug release, each sample was exposed to 20 mL of phosphate buffer saline (PBS) placed in a water bath operating at 37 °C and 100 rpm. Film was stimulated (continuous pulse of ± 1 V at 0.5 Hz for 17 mins) while immersed into PBS. Samples were collected at 1, 2, 6, 23, 24, 26 and 27 hrs and were analysed for dexP by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC Agilent 1200 series). AFM and SEM revealed the honey comb nature of prepared porous structures. XPS data showed the elemental composition of the dexP loaded film surface, which related well with that of PEDOT and also showed that one dexP molecule was present per almost three EDOT monomer units. The reproducible electroactive nature was shown by several cycles of reduction and oxidation via CV. Drug release revealed success in drug loading via ion-exchange, with stimulated porous and non-porous structures exhibiting a proof of concept burst release upon application of an electrical stimulus. A similar drug release pattern was observed for porous and non-porous structures without any significant statistical difference, possibly due to the thin nature of these structures. To our knowledge, this is the first report to explore the potential of VPP prepared PEDOT for stimuli-responsive drug delivery via ion-exchange. The produced porous structures were ordered and highly porous as indicated by AFM and SEM. These porous structures exhibited good electroactivity as shown by CV. Future work will investigate porous structures as nano-reservoirs to increase drug loading while sealing these structures to minimize spontaneous drug leakage.

Keywords: PEDOT for ion-exchange drug delivery, stimuli-responsive drug delivery, template based porous PEDOT structures, vapour phase polymerization of PEDOT

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1512 Computational Insight into a Mechanistic Overview of Water Exchange Kinetics and Thermodynamic Stabilities of Bis and Tris-Aquated Complexes of Lanthanides

Authors: Niharika Keot, Manabendra Sarma

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A thorough investigation of Ln3+ complexes with more than one inner-sphere water molecule is crucial for designing high relaxivity contrast agents (CAs) used in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). This study accomplished a comparative stability analysis of two hexadentate (H3cbda and H3dpaa) and two heptadentate (H4peada and H3tpaa) ligands with Ln3+ ions. The higher stability of the hexadentate H3cbda and heptadentate H4peada ligands has been confirmed by the binding affinity and Gibbs free energy analysis in aqueous solution. In addition, energy decomposition analysis (EDA) reveals the higher binding affinity of the peada4− ligand than the cbda3− ligand towards Ln3+ ions due to the higher charge density of the peada4− ligand. Moreover, a mechanistic overview of water exchange kinetics has been carried out based on the strength of the metal–water bond. The strength of the metal–water bond follows the trend Gd–O47 (w) > Gd–O39 (w) > Gd–O36 (w) in the case of the tris-aquated [Gd(cbda)(H2O)3] and Gd–O43 (w) > Gd–O40 (w) for the bis-aquated [Gd(peada)(H2O)2]− complex, which was confirmed by bond length, electron density (ρ), and electron localization function (ELF) at the corresponding bond critical points. Our analysis also predicts that the activation energy barrier decreases with the decrease in bond strength; hence kex increases. The 17O and 1H hyperfine coupling constant values of all the coordinated water molecules were different, calculated by using the second-order Douglas–Kroll–Hess (DKH2) approach. Furthermore, the ionic nature of the bonding in the metal–ligand (M–L) bond was confirmed by the Quantum Theory of Atoms-In-Molecules (QTAIM) and ELF along with energy decomposition analysis (EDA). We hope that the results can be used as a basis for the design of highly efficient Gd(III)-based high relaxivity MRI contrast agents for medical applications.

Keywords: MRI contrast agents, lanthanide chemistry, thermodynamic stability, water exchange kinetics

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1511 The Impact of the Enron Scandal on the Reputation of Corporate Social Responsibility Rating Agencies

Authors: Jaballah Jamil

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KLD (Peter Kinder, Steve Lydenberg and Amy Domini) research & analytics is an independent intermediary of social performance information that adopts an investor-pay model. KLD rating agency does not have an explicit monitoring on the rated firm which suggests that KLD ratings may not include private informations. Moreover, the incapacity of KLD to predict accurately the extra-financial rating of Enron casts doubt on the reliability of KLD ratings. Therefore, we first investigate whether KLD ratings affect investors' perception by studying the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances. Second, we study the impact of the Enron scandal on investors' perception of KLD rating changes by comparing the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances before and after the failure of Enron. We propose an empirical study that relates a number of equally-weighted portfolios returns, excess stock returns and book-to-market ratio to different dimensions of KLD social responsibility ratings. We first find that over the last two decades KLD rating changes influence significantly and negatively stock returns and book-to-market ratio of rated firms. This finding suggests that a raise in corporate social responsibility rating lowers the firm's risk. Second, to assess the Enron scandal's effect on the perception of KLD ratings, we compare the effect of KLD rating changes before and after the Enron scandal. We find that after the Enron scandal this significant effect disappears. This finding supports the view that the Enron scandal annihilates the KLD's effect on Socially Responsible Investors. Therefore, our findings may question results of recent studies that use KLD ratings as a proxy for Corporate Social Responsibility behavior.

Keywords: KLD social rating agency, investors' perception, investment decision, financial performance

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1510 Retail Strategy to Reduce Waste Keeping High Profit Utilizing Taylor's Law in Point-of-Sales Data

Authors: Gen Sakoda, Hideki Takayasu, Misako Takayasu

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Waste reduction is a fundamental problem for sustainability. Methods for waste reduction with point-of-sales (POS) data are proposed, utilizing the knowledge of a recent econophysics study on a statistical property of POS data. Concretely, the non-stationary time series analysis method based on the Particle Filter is developed, which considers abnormal fluctuation scaling known as Taylor's law. This method is extended for handling incomplete sales data because of stock-outs by introducing maximum likelihood estimation for censored data. The way for optimal stock determination with pricing the cost of waste reduction is also proposed. This study focuses on the examination of the methods for large sales numbers where Taylor's law is obvious. Numerical analysis using aggregated POS data shows the effectiveness of the methods to reduce food waste maintaining a high profit for large sales numbers. Moreover, the way of pricing the cost of waste reduction reveals that a small profit loss realizes substantial waste reduction, especially in the case that the proportionality constant  of Taylor’s law is small. Specifically, around 1% profit loss realizes half disposal at =0.12, which is the actual  value of processed food items used in this research. The methods provide practical and effective solutions for waste reduction keeping a high profit, especially with large sales numbers.

Keywords: food waste reduction, particle filter, point-of-sales, sustainable development goals, Taylor's law, time series analysis

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1509 Two-Photon-Exchange Effects in the Electromagnetic Production of Pions

Authors: Hui-Yun Cao, Hai-Qing Zhou

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The high precision measurements and experiments play more and more important roles in particle physics and atomic physics. To analyse the precise experimental data sets, the corresponding precise and reliable theoretical calculations are necessary. Until now, the form factors of elemental constituents such as pion and proton are still attractive issues in current Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). In this work, the two-photon-exchange (TPE) effects in ep→enπ⁺ at small -t are discussed within a hadronic model. Under the pion dominance approximation and the limit mₑ→0, the TPE contribution to the amplitude can be described by a scalar function. We calculate TPE contributions to the amplitude, and the unpolarized differential cross section with the only elastic intermediate state is considered. The results show that the TPE corrections to the unpolarized differential cross section are about from -4% to -20% at Q²=1-1.6 GeV². After considering the TPE corrections to the experimental data sets of unpolarized differential cross section, we analyze the TPE corrections to the separated cross sections σ(L,T,LT,TT). We find that the TPE corrections (at Q²=1-1.6 GeV²) to σL are about from -10% to -30%, to σT are about 20%, and to σ(LT,TT) are much larger. By these analyses, we conclude that the TPE contributions in ep→enπ⁺ at small -t are important to extract the separated cross sections σ(L,T,LT,TT) and the electromagnetic form factor of π⁺ in the experimental analysis.

Keywords: differential cross section, form factor, hadronic, two-photon

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1508 Book Exchange System with a Hybrid Recommendation Engine

Authors: Nilki Upathissa, Torin Wirasinghe

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This solution addresses the challenges faced by traditional bookstores and the limitations of digital media, striking a balance between the tactile experience of printed books and the convenience of modern technology. The book exchange system offers a sustainable alternative, empowering users to access a diverse range of books while promoting community engagement. The user-friendly interfaces incorporated into the book exchange system ensure a seamless and enjoyable experience for users. Intuitive features for book management, search, and messaging facilitate effortless exchanges and interactions between users. By streamlining the process, the system encourages readers to explore new books aligned with their interests, enhancing the overall reading experience. Central to the system's success is the hybrid recommendation engine, which leverages advanced technologies such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. By analyzing user input, the engine accurately predicts genre preferences, enabling personalized book recommendations. The hybrid approach integrates multiple technologies, including user interfaces, machine learning models, and recommendation algorithms, to ensure the accuracy and diversity of the recommendations. The evaluation of the book exchange system with the hybrid recommendation engine demonstrated exceptional performance across key metrics. The high accuracy score of 0.97 highlights the system's ability to provide relevant recommendations, enhancing users' chances of discovering books that resonate with their interests. The commendable precision, recall, and F1score scores further validate the system's efficacy in offering appropriate book suggestions. Additionally, the curve classifications substantiate the system's effectiveness in distinguishing positive and negative recommendations. This metric provides confidence in the system's ability to navigate the vast landscape of book choices and deliver recommendations that align with users' preferences. Furthermore, the implementation of this book exchange system with a hybrid recommendation engine has the potential to revolutionize the way readers interact with printed books. By facilitating book exchanges and providing personalized recommendations, the system encourages a sense of community and exploration within the reading community. Moreover, the emphasis on sustainability aligns with the growing global consciousness towards eco-friendly practices. With its robust technical approach and promising evaluation results, this solution paves the way for a more inclusive, accessible, and enjoyable reading experience for book lovers worldwide. In conclusion, the developed book exchange system with a hybrid recommendation engine represents a progressive solution to the challenges faced by traditional bookstores and the limitations of digital media. By promoting sustainability, widening access to printed books, and fostering engagement with reading, this system addresses the evolving needs of book enthusiasts. The integration of user-friendly interfaces, advanced machine learning models, and recommendation algorithms ensure accurate and diverse book recommendations, enriching the reading experience for users.

Keywords: recommendation systems, hybrid recommendation systems, machine learning, data science, long short-term memory, recurrent neural network

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1507 Reproductive Biology and Lipid Content of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga) in the Western Indian Ocean

Authors: Zahirah Dhurmeea, Iker Zudaire, Heidi Pethybridge, Emmanuel Chassot, Maria Cedras, Natacha Nikolic, Jerome Bourjea, Wendy West, Chandani Appadoo, Nathalie Bodin

Abstract:

Scientific advice on the status of fish stocks relies on indicators that are based on strong assumptions on biological parameters such as condition, maturity and fecundity. Currently, information on the biology of albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, in the Indian Ocean is scarce. Consequently, many parameters used in stock assessment models for Indian Ocean albacore originate largely from other studied stocks or species of tuna. Inclusion of incorrect biological data in stock assessment models would lead to inappropriate estimates of stock status used by fisheries manager’s to establish future catch allowances. The reproductive biology of albacore tuna in the western Indian Ocean was examined through analysis of the sex ratio, spawning season, length-at-maturity (L50), spawning frequency, fecundity and fish condition. In addition, the total lipid content (TL) and lipid class composition in the gonads, liver and muscle tissues of female albacore during the reproductive cycle was investigated. A total of 923 female and 867 male albacore were sampled from 2013 to 2015. A bias in sex-ratio was found in favour of females with fork length (LF) <100 cm. Using histological analyses and gonadosomatic index, spawning was found to occur between 10°S and 30°S, mainly to the east of Madagascar from October to January. Large females contributed more to reproduction through their longer spawning period compared to small individuals. The L50 (mean ± standard error) of female albacore was estimated at 85.3 ± 0.7 cm LF at the vitellogenic 3 oocyte stage maturity threshold. Albacore spawn on average every 2.2 days within the spawning region and spawning months from November to January. Batch fecundity varied between 0.26 and 2.09 million eggs and the relative batch fecundity (mean  standard deviation) was estimated at 53.4 ± 23.2 oocytes g-1 of somatic-gutted weight. Depending on the maturity stage, TL in ovaries ranged from 7.5 to 577.8 mg g-1 of wet weight (ww) with different proportions of phospholipids (PL), wax esters (WE), triacylglycerol (TAG) and sterol (ST). The highest TL were observed in immature (mostly TAG and PL) and spawning capable ovaries (mostly PL, WE and TAG). Liver TL varied from 21.1 to 294.8 mg g-1 (ww) and acted as an energy (mainly TAG and PL) storage prior to reproduction when the lowest TL was observed. Muscle TL varied from 2.0 to 71.7 g-1 (ww) in mature females without a clear pattern between maturity stages, although higher values of up to 117.3 g-1 (ww) was found in immature females. TL results suggest that albacore could be viewed predominantly as a capital breeder relying mostly on lipids stored before the onset of reproduction and with little additional energy derived from feeding. This study is the first one to provide new information on the reproductive development and classification of albacore in the western Indian Ocean. The reproductive parameters will reduce uncertainty in current stock assessment models which will eventually promote sustainability of the fishery.

Keywords: condition, size-at-maturity, spawning behaviour, temperate tuna, total lipid content

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1506 A Neural Network Control for Voltage Balancing in Three-Phase Electric Power System

Authors: Dana M. Ragab, Jasim A. Ghaeb

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The three-phase power system suffers from different challenging problems, e.g. voltage unbalance conditions at the load side. The voltage unbalance usually degrades the power quality of the electric power system. Several techniques can be considered for load balancing including load reconfiguration, static synchronous compensator and static reactive power compensator. In this work an efficient neural network is designed to control the unbalanced condition in the Aqaba-Qatrana-South Amman (AQSA) electric power system. It is designed for highly enhanced response time of the reactive compensator for voltage balancing. The neural network is developed to determine the appropriate set of firing angles required for the thyristor-controlled reactor to balance the three load voltages accurately and quickly. The parameters of AQSA power system are considered in the laboratory model, and several test cases have been conducted to test and validate the proposed technique capabilities. The results have shown a high performance of the proposed Neural Network Control (NNC) technique for correcting the voltage unbalance conditions at three-phase load based on accuracy and response time.

Keywords: three-phase power system, reactive power control, voltage unbalance factor, neural network, power quality

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1505 Seed Quality Aspects of Nightshade (Solanum Nigrum) as Influenced by Gibberellins (GA3) on Seed

Authors: Muga Moses

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Plant growth regulators are actively involved in the growth and yield of plants. However, limited information is available on the combined effect of gibberellic acid (GA3) on growth attributes and yield of African nightshade. This experiment will be designed to fill this gap by studying the performance of African nightshade under the application of hormones. Gibberellic acid is a plant growth hormone that promotes cell expansion and division. A greenhouse and laboratory experiment will be conducted at the University of Sussex biotechnology greenhouse and Agriculture laboratory using a growth chamber to study the effect of GA3 on the growth and development attributes of African nightshade. The experiment consists of three replications and 5 treatments and is laid out in a randomized complete block design consisting of various concentrations of GA3. 0ppm, 50ppm, 100ppm, 150ppm and 200ppm. local farmer seed was grown in plastic pots, 6 seeds then hardening off to remain with four plants per pot at the greenhouse to attain purity of germplasm, proper management until maturity of berries then harvesting and squeezing to get seeds, paper dry on the sun for 7 days. In a laboratory, place 5 Whatman filter paper on glass petri-dish subject to different concentrations of stock solution, count 50 certified and clean, healthy seeds, then arrange on the moist filter paper and mark respectively. Spray with the stock solution twice a day and protrusion of radicle termed as germination count and discard to increase the accuracy of precision. Data will be collected on the application of GA3 to compare synergistic effects on the growth, yield, and nutrient contents on African nightshade.

Keywords: African nightshade, growth, yield, shoot, gibberellins

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1504 Production Process for Diesel Fuel Components Polyoxymethylene Dimethyl Ethers from Methanol and Formaldehyde Solution

Authors: Xiangjun Li, Huaiyuan Tian, Wujie Zhang, Dianhua Liu

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Polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers (PODEn) as clean diesel additive can improve the combustion efficiency and quality of diesel fuel and alleviate the problem of atmospheric pollution. Considering synthetic routes, PODE production from methanol and formaldehyde is regarded as the most economical and promising synthetic route. However, methanol used for synthesizing PODE can produce water, which causes the loss of active center of catalyst and hydrolysis of PODEn in the production process. Macroporous strong acidic cation exchange resin catalyst was prepared, which has comparative advantages over other common solid acid catalysts in terms of stability and catalytic efficiency for synthesizing PODE. Catalytic reactions were carried out under 353 K, 1 MPa and 3mL·gcat-1·h-1 in a fixed bed reactor. Methanol conversion and PODE3-6 selectivity reached 49.91% and 23.43%, respectively. Catalyst lifetime evaluation showed that resin catalyst retained its catalytic activity for 20 days without significant changes and catalytic activity of completely deactivated resin catalyst can basically return to previous level by simple acid regeneration. The acid exchange capacities of original and deactivated catalyst were 2.5191 and 0.0979 mmol·g-1, respectively, while regenerated catalyst reached 2.0430 mmol·g-1, indicating that the main reason for resin catalyst deactivation is that Brønsted acid sites of original resin catalyst were temporarily replaced by non-hydrogen ion cations. A separation process consisting of extraction and distillation for PODE3-6 product was designed for separation of water and unreacted formaldehyde from reactive mixture and purification of PODE3-6, respectively. The concentration of PODE3-6 in final product can reach up to 97%. These results indicate that the scale-up production of PODE3-6 from methanol and formaldehyde solution is feasible.

Keywords: inactivation, polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers, separation process, sulfonic cation exchange resin

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1503 Synthesis of Iron-Modified Montmorillonite as Filler for Electrospun Nanocomposite Fibers

Authors: Khryslyn Araño, Dela Cruz, Michael Leo, Dela Pena, Eden May, Leslie Joy Diaz

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Montmorillonite (MMT) is a very abundant clay mineral and is versatile such that it can be chemically or physically altered by changing the ions between the sheets of its layered structure. This clay mineral can be prepared into functional nanoparticles that can be used as fillers in other nanomaterials such as nanofibers to achieve special properties. In this study, two types of iron-modified MMT, Iron-MMT (FeMMT) and Zero Valent Iron-MMT (ZVIMMT) were synthesized via ion exchange technique. The modified clay was incorporated in polymer nanofibers which were produced using a process called electrospinning. ICP analysis confirmed that clay modification was successful where there is an observed decrease in the concentration of Na and an increase in the concentration of Fe after ion exchange. XRD analysis also confirmed that modification took place because of the changes in the d-spacing of Na-MMT from 11.5 Å to 13.6 Å and 12.6 Å after synthesis of FeMMT and ZVIMMT, respectively. SEM images of the electrospun nanofibers revealed that the ZVIMMT-filled fibers have a smaller average diameter than the FeMMT-filled fibers because of the lower resistance of the suspensions of the former to the elongation force from the applied electric field. The resistance to the electric field was measured by getting the bulk voltage of the suspensions.

Keywords: electrospinning, nanofibers, montmorillonite, materials science

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1502 Artificial Seed Production in Stipagrostis pennata

Authors: Masoumeh Asadi Aghbolaghi, Beata Dedicova, Farzad Sharifzadeh, Mansoor Omidi, Ulrika Egertsdotter

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Stipagrostis pennata is one of the valuable fodder plants and is very resistant to drought, due to the low capacity of seed production, the use of asexual reproduction methods, including somatic embryogenesis and artificial seed, can increase its reproduction on a large scale. This study was conducted in order to obtain optimal treatments for the production of artificial seeds of this plant through the somatic embryo encapsulating. Embryonic calluses were encapsulated using sodium alginate and calcium chloride and then sowed in a germination medium. The experiment was conducted as a factorial based on a completely randomized design with three replications. The treatments include three concentrations of sodium alginate (1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 percent), two ion exchange times (20 and 30 minutes,) and two artificial seed germination media (hormone free MS and MS containing zeatin riboside and L-proline). Germination percentage and number of days until the beginning of germination were investigated. The highest percentage of artificial seed germination was obtained when 2.5% sodium alginate was used for 30 minutes (ion exchange time) and the seeds were placed on the germination medium containing zeatin riboside and L-proline.

Keywords: somatic embryogenesis, Stipagrostis pennata, synthetic seed, tissue culture

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1501 Egg Hatching Inhibition Activity of Volatile Oils Extracted from Some Medicinal and Aromatic Plants against Root-Knot Nematode Meloidogyne hapla

Authors: Anil F. Felek, Mehmet M. Ozcan, Faruk Akyazi

Abstract:

Volatile oils of medicinal and aromatic plants are important for managing nematological problems in agriculture. In present study, volatile oils extracted from five medicinal and aromatic plants including Origanum onites (flower+steam+leaf), Salvia officinalis (leaf), Lippia citriodora (leaf+seed), Mentha spicata (leaf) and Mentha longifolia (leaf) were tested for egg hatching inhibition activity against root-knot nematode Meloidogyne hapla under laboratory conditions. The essential oils were extracted using water distillation method with a Clevenger system. For the homogenisation process of the oils, 2% gum arabic solution was used and 4 µl oils was added into 1ml filtered gum arabic solution to prepare the last stock solution. 5 ml of stock solution and 1 ml of M. hapla egg suspension (about 100 eggs) were added into petri dishes. Gum arabic solution was used as control. Seven days after exposure to oils at room temperature (26±2 °C), the cumulative hatched and unhatched eggs were counted under 40X inverted light microscope and Abbott’s formula was used to calculate egg hatching inhibition rates. As a result, the highest inhibition rate was found as 54% for O. onites. In addition, the other inhibition rates varied as 31.4%, 21.6%, 23.8%, 25.67% for the other plants, S. officinalis, M. longifolia, M. spicata and L. citriodora, respectively. Carvacrol was found as the main component (68.8%) of O. onites followed by Thujone 27.77% for S. officinalis, I-Menthone 76.92% for M. longifolia, Carvone 27.05% for M. spicata and Citral 19.32% for L. citriodora.

Keywords: egg hatching, Meloidogyne hapla, medicinal and aromatic plants, root-knot nematodes, volatile oils

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1500 Pollution Assessment and Potential Ecological Risk of Some Traces Metals in the Surface Sediments of the Gulf of Tunis, North Tunisia

Authors: Haïfa Ben Mna, Ayed Added

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To evaluate the trace metals contamination status in the Gulf of Tunis, forty one sediment samples were analyzed using different approaches. According to certain contamination and ecological risk indices (Contamination Factor, Geoaccumulation index and Ecological risk index), Hg has the highest contamination level while pollution by Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr was absent. The highest concentrations of trace metals were found in sediments collected from the offshore and coastal areas located opposite the main exchange points with the gulf particularly, the Mejerda and Meliane Rivers, the Khalij Channel, Ghar El Melh and El Malah lagoons, Tunis Lake and Sebkhat Ariana. However, further ecological indices (Potential ecological risk index, Toxic unit and Mean effect-range median quotient) and comparison with sediment quality guidelines suggest that in addition to Mercury, Cr, Pb and Ni concentrations are detrimental to biota in both the offshore and areas near to the exchange points with the gulf. Moreover, in these areas the results from sequential extraction and individual contamination factor calculation pointed to the mobility and bioavailability of Cr, Pb and Ni.

Keywords: sediment, trace metals, contamination assessment, ecological risk, Tunis gulf

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1499 Determinants of Budget Performance in an Oil-Based Economy

Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

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Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

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