Search results for: corrective measures

Authors: Loukou Amoin Marie Djedri

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Financing is important for all terrorists – from the largest organizations in control of territories, to the smallest groups – not only for spreading fear through attacks, but also to finance the expansion of terrorist dogmas. These organizations pose serious threats to the international community. The disruption of terrorist financing aims to create a hostile environment for the growth of terrorism and to limit considerably the terrorist groups capacities. The World Bank (WB), together with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), decided to include in their scope the Fight against the money laundering and the financing of terrorism, in order to assist Member States in protecting their internal financial system from terrorism use and abuse and reinforcing their legal system. To do so, they have adopted the Anti-Money Laundering /Combating Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) standards that have been set up by the Financial Action Task Force. This set of standards, recognized as the international standards for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism, has to be implemented by States Members in order to strengthen their judicial system and relevant national institutions. However, we noted that, to date, some States Members still have significant AML/CFT deficiencies, which can constitute serious threats not only to the country’s economic stability but also for the global financial system. In addition, studies stressed out that repressive measures are more implemented by countries than preventive measures, which could be an important weakness in a state security system. Furthermore, we noticed that the AML/CFT standards evolve slowly, while techniques used by terrorist networks keep developing. The goal of the study is to show how to enhance the AML/CFT global compliance through the work of the IMF and the WB, to help member states to consolidate their financial system. To encourage and ensure the effectiveness of these standards, a methodology for assessing the compliance with the AML/CFT standards has been created to follow up the concrete implementation of these standards and to provide accurate technical assistance to countries in need. A risk-based approach has also been adopted as a key component of the implementation of the AML/CFT Standards, with the aim of strengthening the efficiency of the standards. Instead, we noted that the assessment is not efficient in the process of enhancing AML/CFT measures because it seems to lack of adaptation to the country situation. In other words, internal and external factors are not enough taken into account in a country assessment program. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the AML/CFT regime in the fight against the financing of terrorism and to find lasting solutions to achieve the global AML/CFT compliance. The work of all the organizations involved in this combat is imperative to protect the financial network and to lead to the disintegration of terrorist groups in the future.

Keywords: AML/CFT standards, financing of terrorism, international financial institutions, risk-based approach

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Authors: Kung-Jen Tu, Danny Vernatha

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To assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks, this study explores the application of Building Information Modeling in establishing the ‘BIM based Energy Management Support System’ (BIM-EMSS). The BIM-EMSS consists of six components: (1) sensors installed for each occupant and each equipment, (2) electricity sub-meters (constantly logging lighting, HVAC, and socket electricity consumptions of each room), (3) BIM models of all rooms within individual departments’ facilities, (4) data warehouse (for storing occupancy status and logged electricity consumption data), (5) building energy management system that provides energy managers with various energy management functions, and (6) energy simulation tool (such as eQuest) that generates real time 'standard energy consumptions' data against which 'actual energy consumptions' data are compared and energy efficiency evaluated. Through the building energy management system, the energy manager is able to (a) have 3D visualization (BIM model) of each room, in which the occupancy and equipment status detected by the sensors and the electricity consumptions data logged are displayed constantly; (b) perform real time energy consumption analysis to compare the actual and standard energy consumption profiles of a space; (c) obtain energy consumption anomaly detection warnings on certain rooms so that energy management corrective actions can be further taken (data mining technique is employed to analyze the relation between space occupancy pattern with current space equipment setting to indicate an anomaly, such as when appliances turn on without occupancy); and (d) perform historical energy consumption analysis to review monthly and annually energy consumption profiles and compare them against historical energy profiles. The BIM-EMSS was further implemented in a research lab in the Department of Architecture of NTUST in Taiwan and implementation results presented to illustrate how it can be used to assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks.

Keywords: database, electricity sub-meters, energy anomaly detection, sensor

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Authors: Pranay Mathur, Carlo Michelassi, Simi Karatha, Gilda Pedoto

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Industrial plant uptime is top most importance for reliable, profitable & sustainable operation. Trip and failed start has major impact on plant reliability and all plant operators focussed on efforts required to minimise the trips & failed starts. The performance of these CTQs are measured with 2 metrics, MTBT(Mean time between trips) and SR (Starting reliability). These metrics helps to identify top failure modes and identify units need more effort to improve plant reliability. Baker Hughes Trip reduction program structured to reduce these unwanted trip 1. Real time machine operational parameters remotely available and capturing the signature of malfunction including related boundary condition. 2. Real time alerting system based on analytics available remotely. 3. Remote access to trip logs and alarms from control system to identify the cause of events. 4. Continuous support to field engineers by remotely connecting with subject matter expert. 5. Live tracking of key CTQs 6. Benchmark against fleet 7. Break down to the cause of failure to component level 8. Investigate top contributor, identify design and operational root cause 9. Implement corrective and preventive action 10. Assessing effectiveness of implemented solution using reliability growth models. 11. Develop analytics for predictive maintenance With this approach , Baker Hughes team is able to support customer in achieving their Reliability Key performance Indicators for monitored units, huge cost savings for plant operators. This Presentation explains these approach while providing successful case studies, in particular where 12nos. of LNG and Pipeline operators with about 140 gas compressing line-ups has adopted these techniques and significantly reduce the number of trips and improved MTBT

Keywords: reliability, availability, sustainability, digital infrastructure, weibull, effectiveness, automation, trips, fail start

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Authors: Sila K. Sari, Betty J.L. Laglbauer, Muhammad G. Salim, Irianies C. Gozali, Iqbal Herwata, Fahmi Fahmi, Selvia Oktaviyani, Isabel Ender, Sarah Lewis, Abraham Sianipar, Mark Erdmann

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Taking strides towards the sustainable use of marine stocks requires science-based management of target fish populations and reduction of bycatch in non-selective fisheries. Among elasmobranchs, mobulid rays are faced with high extinction risk due to intrinsic vulnerability to fishing and their conservation has been recognized as a strong priority both in Indonesia and worldwide. Despite their common vulnerabilities to fishing pressure due to slow growth, late maturation and low fecundity, only manta rays, but not devil rays, are protected in Indonesian waters. However, both manta and devil rays are captured in non-selective fisheries, in particular drift gillnets, since their habitat overlaps with fishing grounds for primary target species (e.g. marlin, swordfish and bullet tuna off the coast of Muncar). For this reason, mobulid populations are being heavily impacted, and while national-level protections are crucial to help conservation, they may not suffice alone to insure populations sustainability. In order to assess the potential of applying live-release management measures to conserve mobulids captured as bycatch in drift gillnets, we deployed pop-up survival archival transmitters to assess post-release mortality in Indonesian mobulid rays. We also assessed which fishing practices, in particular, soak duration, affected post-release mortality in order to draw relevant conclusions for management.

Keywords: Mobulid, Devil ray, Manta ray, Bycatch

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Authors: A. Van Staden, A. Tolmie, E. Vorster

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Research confirms the multifaceted nature of spelling development and underscores the importance of both cognitive and linguistic skills that affect sound spelling development such as working and long-term memory, phonological and orthographic awareness, mental orthographic images, semantic knowledge and morphological awareness. This has clear implications for many South African English second language spellers (L2) who attempt to become proficient spellers. Since English has an opaque orthography, with irregular spelling patterns and insufficient sound/grapheme correspondences, L2 spellers can neither rely, nor draw on the phonological awareness skills of their first language (for example Sesotho and many other African languages), to assist them to spell the majority of English words. Epistemologically, this research is informed by social constructivism. In addition the researchers also hypothesized that the principles of the Overlapping Waves Theory was an appropriate lens through which to investigate whether L2 spellers could significantly improve their spelling skills via the implementation of an alternative route to spelling development, namely the orthographic route, and more specifically via the application of visual imagery. Post-test results confirmed the results of previous research that argues for the interactive nature of different cognitive and linguistic systems such as working memory and its subsystems and long-term memory, as learners were systematically guided to store visual orthographic images of words in their long-term lexicons. Moreover, the results have shown that L2 spellers in the experimental group (n = 9) significantly outperformed L2 spellers (n = 9) in the control group whose intervention involved phonological awareness (and coding) including the teaching of spelling rules. Consequently, L2 learners in the experimental group significantly improved in all the post-test measures included in this investigation, namely the four sub-tests of short-term memory; as well as two spelling measures (i.e. diagnostic and standardized measures). Against this background, the findings of this study look promising and have shown that, within a social-constructivist learning environment, learners can be systematically guided to apply higher-order thinking processes such as visual imagery to successfully store and retrieve mental images of spelling words from their output lexicons. Moreover, results from the present study could play an important role in directing research into this under-researched aspect of L2 literacy development within the South African education context.

Keywords: English second language spellers, phonological and orthographic coding, social constructivism, visual imagery as spelling strategy

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Authors: Rahaf Alasiri, Tarek Alghamdi, Abdullah Zarkan

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Background: Due to measures such as school closure, social distancing, and virtual teaching during the pandemic, primary school children's psychological well-being is greatly affected. These measures have short and long-term consequences on the children's well-being and mental health. Identifying these consequences is important. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate mood and behavior changes in children who attended school virtually. Subjects and methods: This is a cross-sectional study conducted among children and their parents who visited the outpatient clinic. A self-administered questionnaire was given to the parents of children aged between 6 to 14 years. The questionnaire includes socio-demographic characteristics, Conor's modifies scale to assess the attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) of children, and the parental stress scale (PSS) to assess the stress symptoms of the parents. Results: Of the 66 surveyed children, 60.6% were aged between 10 to 14 years old, with the female being dominant (77.3%). The most common medical condition was asthma (7.6%), and nearly two-thirds (63.6%) indicated good health conditions during the pandemic. There was a significant inverse correlation observed between ADHD score and PSS score (r=-0.387). No significant differences are in ADHD and PSS scores in relation to the socio-demographic characteristics of the children, including age, gender, and having an associated medical condition (p>0.05). Conclusion: During the pandemic, children who attended virtual classes did not seem to affect even with restrictions. Most children indicated good health conditions during the pandemic. However, it is surprising to know that in spite of children’s high spirits during the pandemic, their parents were seen to have an increased level of stress. Strategies to address parents’ psychological disorders during the pandemic are warranted.

Keywords: children's mood, COVID-19, ADHD, parental stress

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Authors: Yunfan Jiang

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In response to an identified gap in available treatment programmes for high-risk offenders with multiple criminogenic needs and guided by emerging literature in the field of correctional rehabilitation, Singapore Prison Service (SPS) developed the Integrated Criminogenic Programme (ICP) in 2012. This evidence-informed psychological programme was designed to address all seven dynamic criminogenic needs (from the Central 8) of high-risk offenders by applying concepts from rehabilitation and psychological theories such as Risk-Need-Responsivity, Good Lives Model, narrative identity, and motivational interviewing. This programme also encompasses a 6-month community maintenance component for the purpose of providing structured step-down support in the aftercare setting. These sessions provide participants the opportunity for knowledge reinforcement and application of skills attained in-care. A quantitative evaluation of the ICP showed that the intervention group had statistically significant improvements across time in most self-report measures of criminal attitudes, substance use attitudes, and psychosocial functioning. This was congruent with qualitative data from participants saying that the ICP had the most impact on their criminal thinking patterns and management of behaviours in high-risk situations. Results from the comparison group showed no difference in their criminal attitudes, even though they reported statistically significant improvements across time in their substance use attitudes and some self-report measures of psychosocial functioning. The programme’s efficacy was also apparent in the lower rates of recidivism and relapse within 12 months for the intervention group. The management of staff issues arising from the development and implementation of an innovative high-intensity psychological programme such as the ICP will also be discussed.

Keywords: evaluation, forensic psychology, intervention programme, offender rehabilitation

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Authors: Kevin Henry

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Introduction: This research identifies the main struggles of non-binary people in an organizational setting using the ZMET – method of in-depth interviews. The research was done in Iceland, a country that is repeatedly listed in the top countries for gender equality and found three main categories of non-binary struggles in organizations. These categories can be used to improve organizational non-binary inclusion. Aim: The main questions this paper will answer are: Which unique obstacles are non-binary people facing in their daily organizational life? Which organizational and individual measures help with more inclusion of non-binary people? How can organizational gender equality measures be made more inclusive of non-binary issues? Background: Even though gender equality is a much-researched topic, the struggles of non-binary people are often overlooked in gender equality research. Additionally, non-binary and transgender people are frequently researched together, even though their struggles can be very different. Research focused on non-binary people is, in many cases, done on a more structural or organizational level with quantitative data such as salary or position within an organization. This research focuses on the individual and their struggles with qualitative data to derive measures for non-binary inclusion and equality. Method: An adapted approach of the ZMET-Method (Zaltman Metaphor Elicitation Technique) will be used, during which in-depth interviews are held with individuals, utilizing pictures as a metaphorical starting point to discuss their main thoughts and feelings on being non-binary in an organizational setting. Interviewees prepared five pictures, each representing one key thought or feeling about their organizational life. The interviewer then lets the interviewee describe each picture and asks probing questions to get a deeper understanding of each individual topic. This method helps with a mostly unbiased data collection process by only asking probing questions during the interview and not leading the interviewee in any certain direction. Results: This research has identified three main categories of struggles non-binary people are facing in an organizational setting: internal (personal) struggles, external struggles and structural struggles. Internal struggles refer to struggles that originate from the person themselves (e.g., struggles with their own identity). External struggles refer to struggles from the outside (e.g. harassment from coworkers, exclusion). Structural struggles refer to struggles that are built into the organizational policy or facilities (e.g. restrooms, gendered language). Conclusion: This study shows that there are many struggles for non-binary people in organizations and that even in countries that pride themselves on being progressive and having a high level of gender equality, there is still much to be done for non-binary inclusion. Implications for Organizations: Organizations that strive to improve the inclusion of all genders should pay attention to how their structures are built, how their training is conducted, and how their policies affect people of various genders. Simple changes like making restrooms gender-neutral and using neutral language in company communications are good examples of small structural steps for more inclusion.

Keywords: gender equality, non-binary, organizations, ZMET

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Authors: Maximilian Cedzich, Ingo Dietz Von Bayer, Roland Jochem

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In order for industrial companies to continue to succeed in dynamic, globalized markets, they must be able to train their employees in an agile manner and at short notice in line with the exogenous conditions that arise. For this purpose, it is indispensable to operate a proactive competence management system for employees that recognizes qualification needs timely in order to be able to address them promptly through qualification measures. However, there are hardly any approaches to be found in the literature that includes systematic, proactive competence management. In order to help close this gap, this publication presents a process model that systematically develops bottom-up, future-oriented target competence profiles based on the tasks of the employees. Concretely, in the first step, the tasks of the individual employees are examined for assumed future conditions. In other words, qualitative scenarios are considered for the individual tasks to determine how they are likely to change. In a second step, these scenario-based future tasks are translated into individual future-related target competencies of the employee using a matrix of generic task properties. The final step pursues the goal of validating the target competence profiles formed in this way within the framework of a management workshop. This process model provides industrial companies with a tool that they can use to determine the competencies required by their own employees in the future and compare them with the actual prevailing competencies. If gaps are identified between the target and the actual, these qualification requirements can be closed in the short term by means of qualification measures.

Keywords: dynamic globalized markets, employee competence management, industrial companies, knowledge management

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Authors: Gergely Horváth

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The study presents the complexity of food safety dividing it into two layers. Beyond the basic layer of requirements, there is a more demanding higher level linked with quality and purity aspects. It would be important to give special prominence to both layers, given that massive illnesses are caused by foods even though officially licensed. Then the study discusses an exciting safety challenge stemming from the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Furthermore, it features legal case examples that illustrate how certain liability questions are solved or not yet decided in connection with the production of genetically modified crops. In addition, a special kind of land grabbing, more precisely land grabbing from non-GMO farming systems can also be noticed as well as a new phenomenon eroding food sovereignty. Coexistence, the state where organic, conventional, and GM farming systems are standing alongside each other is an unsuitable experiment that cannot be successful, because of biophysical reasons (such as cross-pollination). Agricultural and environmental lawyers both try to find the optimal solution. Agri-environmental measures are introduced as a special subfield of law maintaining also food safety. The important steps of agri-environmental legislation are aiming at the protection of natural values, the environmental media and strengthening food safety as well, practically the quality of agricultural products intended for human consumption. The major findings of the study focus on searching for the appropriate approach capable of solving the security and safety problems of food production. The most interesting concepts of the Hungarian national and EU food law legislation are analyzed in more detail with descriptive, analytic and comparative methods.

Keywords: food law, food safety, food security, GMO, Genetically Modified Organisms, agri-environmental measures

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Authors: Fazle Rabbi, Mashuda Khanom Tithi, Tasnim Mirza, Sanjida Rowshan Anannya, Ahmed Hossain

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Background: Low Back Pain (LBP) is one of the common health problems among the garment workers that causes workers absenteeism from the work. The purpose of the study is to identify the association between occupational factors and LBP among the female garment workers in Bangladesh. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 487 female garment workers from three compliant garment factories of Bangladesh. Face-to-face interview on four different LBP measures along with questions on socio-demographic, occupational, and physical factors were used to collect the data. Result: The prevalence rates for LBP lasts for at least one day during the last six months, chronic pain, intense pain, and seeking medical care for LBP were found 63.04%, 38.60%, 13.76%, and 18.89%, respectively among the female garments workers. The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicates that duration of employment (>5 years), regular weight bearing and extended weekly working hours (>48 hours) are positively associated with LBP. Besides, age, BMI, family income, marital status and number of children are also found positively associated with the LBP measures. Conclusion: The prevalence of LBP among female garment workers in Bangladesh is found high. The duration of employment (>5 years), regular weight bearing and extended weekly working hours (>48 hours) play a significant role in developing LBP among the female workers. Factories need to consider training programs on the appropriate technique of weight bearing. It is also important to conduct regular screening programs to identify LBP, especially with married, overweight/obese and older age group to reduce the occurrence of LBP.

Keywords: Bangladesh, garment workers, low back pain, occupational health

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Authors: Baguma Charles Abwooli

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Whereas they profess to be comrades in the fight to save souls, Born Again Churches in Uganda are shooting each other in the foot over yet to be understood reasons. For a long time, churches have sustained a bitter divide among themselves. The country has witnessed pastoral scandals, including church leaders dragging each other to court, setting each other’s churches ablaze, and even plotting assassination against each her. The most dreadful was when one pastor called a chest-thumping press conference at the demise of another. There is even an emergence of church-owned radio stations purposed to fuel this conflict. Worse still, the division among pastors has been transferred to their congregations to extent that at the first meeting, congregants ask each other where they pray from perhaps to know how to deal with each other. This has caused the born-again to maintain factions among themselves and keeping ready to fight in case there is a battle. This is quite a risk to peace and stability in the country. This kind of belligerence not only defeats the very existence of churches but is a threat to national peace and security, especially as the churches mushroom across the country. It is feared that the vice could spread to the rest of Eastern Africa and beyond, given the connectivity. There is already evidence to this. One Pastor was heard to call the late Ghanaian Pastor T. B. Joshua, a witch who has been training witches in Uganda. He said this at his demise while referring to pastors that subscribe to T. B. Joshua’s approach to preaching the Gospel. This is an abomination, especially in Africa! There is, therefore, an urgent need to understand the roots of this conflict and design measures to decisively manageit. The present study employs tools based on conflict resolution theory to conduct a deep qualitative analysis of the origin and progression of the Born-Againconflict in Uganda with intend to make recommendations of appropriate measures to resolve it.

Keywords: uganda, shooting, pulpit, born again churches

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Yu-Hsin Tsai

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A new, mandated county regional plan system has been initiated since 2010 nationwide in Taiwan, with its role situated in-between the policy-led cross-county regional plan and the blueprint-led city plan. This new regional plan contain both urban and rural areas in one single plan, which provides a more complete planning territory, i.e., city region within the county’s jurisdiction, and to be executed and managed effectively by the county government. However, the full picture of its functions and characteristics seems still not totally clear, compared with other levels of plans; either are planning goals and issues that can be most appropriately dealt with at this spatial scale. In addition, the extent to which the inclusion of sustainability ideal and measures to cope with climate change are unclear. Based on the above issues, this study aims to clarify the roles of county regional plan, to analyze the extent to which the measures cope with sustainability, climate change, and forecasted declining population, and the success factors and issues faced in the planning process. The methodology applied includes literature review, plan quality evaluation, and interview with officials of the central and local governments and urban planners involved for all the 23 counties in Taiwan. The preliminary research results show, first, growth management related policies have been widely implemented and expected to have effective impact, including incorporating resources capacity to determine maximum population for the city region as a whole, developing overall vision of urban growth boundary for all the whole city region, prioritizing infill development, and use of architectural land within urbanized area over rural area to cope with urban growth. Secondly, planning-oriented zoning is adopted in urban areas, while demand-oriented planning permission is applied in the rural areas with designated plans. Then, public participation has been evolved to the next level to oversee all of government’s planning and review processes due to the decreasing trust in the government, and development of public forum on the internet etc. Next, fertile agricultural land is preserved to maintain food self-supplied goal for national security concern. More adoption-based methods than mitigation-based methods have been applied to cope with global climate change. Finally, better land use and transportation planning in terms of avoiding developing rail transit stations and corridor in rural area is promoted. Even though many promising, prompt measures have been adopted, however, challenges exist to surround: first, overall urban density, likely affecting success of UGB, or use of rural agricultural land, has not been incorporated, possibly due to implementation difficulties. Second, land-use related measures to mitigating climate change seem less clear and hence less employed. Smart decline has not drawn enough attention to cope with predicted population decrease in the next decade. Then, some reluctance from county’s government to implement county regional plan can be observed vaguely possibly since limits have be set on further development on agricultural land and sensitive areas. Finally, resolving issue on existing illegal factories on agricultural land remains the most challenging dilemma.

Keywords: city region plan, sustainability, global climate change, growth management

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Authors: David Bakker, Nikki Rickard

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Smartphone apps hold immense potential as mental health and wellbeing tools. Support can be made easily accessible and can be used in real-time while users are experiencing distress. Furthermore, data can be collected to enable machine learning and automated tailoring of support to users. While many apps have been developed for mental health purposes, few have adhered to evidence-based recommendations and even fewer have pursued experimental validation. This paper details the development and experimental evaluation of an app, MoodMission, that aims to provide support for low moods and anxiety, help prevent clinical depression and anxiety disorders, and serve as an adjunct to professional clinical supports. MoodMission was designed to deliver cognitive behavioural therapy for specifically reported problems in real-time, momentary interactions. Users report their low moods or anxious feelings to the app along with a subjective units of distress scale (SUDS) rating. MoodMission then provides a choice of 5-10 short, evidence-based mental health strategies called Missions. Users choose a Mission, complete it, and report their distress again. Automated tailoring, gamification, and in-built data collection for analysis of effectiveness was also included in the app’s design. The development process involved construction of an evidence-based behavioural plan, designing of the app, building and testing procedures, feedback-informed changes, and a public launch. A randomized controlled trial (RCT) was conducted comparing MoodMission to two other apps and a waitlist control condition. Participants completed measures of anxiety, depression, well-being, emotional self-awareness, coping self-efficacy and mental health literacy at the start of their app use and 30 days later. At the time of submission (November 2016) over 300 participants have participated in the RCT. Data analysis will begin in January 2017. At the time of this submission, MoodMission has over 4000 users. A repeated-measures ANOVA of 1390 completed Missions reveals that SUDS (0-10) ratings were significantly reduced between pre-Mission ratings (M=6.20, SD=2.39) and post-Mission ratings (M=4.93, SD=2.25), F(1,1389)=585.86, p < .001, np2=.30. This effect was consistent across both low moods and anxiety. Preliminary analyses of the data from the outcome measures surveys reveal improvements across mental health and wellbeing measures as a result of using the app over 30 days. This includes a significant increase in coping self-efficacy, F(1,22)=5.91, p=.024, np2=.21. Complete results from the RCT in which MoodMission was evaluated will be presented. Results will also be presented from the continuous outcome data being recorded by MoodMission. MoodMission was successfully developed and launched, and preliminary analysis suggest that it is an effective mental health and wellbeing tool. In addition to the clinical applications of MoodMission, the app holds promise as a research tool to conduct component analysis of psychological therapies and overcome restraints of laboratory based studies. The support provided by the app is discrete, tailored, evidence-based, and transcends barriers of stigma, geographic isolation, financial limitations, and low health literacy.

Keywords: anxiety, app, CBT, cognitive behavioural therapy, depression, eHealth, mission, mobile, mood, MoodMission

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Authors: Maggie Mosher, Adam Carreon, Sean Smith

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A systematic literature review was conducted to explore the evidence base on the use of augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), mixed reality (MR), and extended reality (XR) to present social skill instruction to school-age students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Specifically, the systematic review focus was on a. the participants and intervention agents using AR, VR, MR, and XR for social skill acquisition b. the social skills taught through these mediums and c. the social validity measures (i.e., goals, procedures, and outcomes) reported in these studies. Forty-one articles met the inclusion criteria. Researchers in six studies taught social skills to students through AR, in 27 studies through non-immersive VR, and in 10 studies through immersive VR. No studies used MR or XR. The primary targeted social skills were relationship skills, emotion recognition, social awareness, cooperation, and executive functioning. An intervention to improve many social skills was implemented by 73% of researchers, 17% taught a single skill, and 10% did not clearly state the targeted skill. The intervention was considered effective in 26 of the 41 studies (63%), not effective in four studies (10%), and 11 studies (27%) reported mixed results. No researchers reported information for all 17 social validity indicators. The social validity indicators reported by researchers ranged from two to 14. Social validity measures on the feelings toward and use of the technology were provided in 22 studies (54%). Findings indicated both AR and VR are promising platforms for providing social skill instruction to students with ASD. Studies utilizing this technology show a number of social validity indicators. However, the limited information provided on the various interventions, participant characteristics, and validity measures, offers insufficient evidence of the impact of these technologies in teaching social skills to students with ASD. Future research should develop a protocol for training treatment agents to assess the role of different variables (i.e., whether agents are customizing content, monitoring student learning, using intervention specific vocabulary in their day to day instruction). Sustainability may be increased by providing training in the technology to both treatment agents and participants. Providing scripts of instruction occurring within the intervention would provide the needed information to determine the primary method of teaching within the intervention. These variables play a role in maintenance and generalization of the social skills. Understanding the type of feedback provided would help researchers determine if students were able to feel rewarded for progressing through the scenarios or if students require rewarding aspects within the intervention (i.e., badges, trophies). AR has the potential to generalize instruction and VR has the potential for providing a practice environment for performance deficits. Combining these two technologies into a mixed reality intervention may provide a more cohesive and effective intervention.

Keywords: autism, augmented reality, social and emotional learning, social skills, virtual reality

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Authors: Maria Medrano, Cristina Cadenas-Sanchez, Maddi Oses, Lide Arenaza, Maria Amasene, Idoia Labayen

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The COVID-19 outbreak began in December 2019 in China and was rapidly expanded globally. Emergency measures, such as social distance or home confinement, were adopted by many country governments to prevent its transmission. In Spain, one of the most affected countries, the schools were closed, and one of the most severe mandatory home confinement was established for children from 14th March to 26th April 2020. The hypothesis of this study was that the measures adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic may have negatively affected physical activity and screen time of children. However, few studies have examined the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on lifestyle behaviours. Thus, the aim of the current work was to analyse the effects of the COVID-19 confinement on physical activity and screen time in Spanish children. For the current purpose, a total of 113 children and adolescents (12.0 ± 2.6 yr., 51.3% boys, 24.0% with overweight/obesity according to the World Obesity Federation) of the MUGI project were included in the analyses. Physical activity and screen time were longitudinally assessed by 'The Youth Activity Profile' questionnaire (YAP). Differences in physical activity and screen time before and during the confinement were assessed by dependent t-test. Before the confinement, 60% did not meet physical activity recommendations ( ≥ 60/min/day of moderate to vigorous physical activity), and 61% used screens ≥ 2 h/day. During the COVID-19 confinement, children decreased their physical activity levels (-91 ± 55 min/day, p < 0.001) and increased screen time ( ± 2.6 h/day, p < 0.001). The prevalence of children that worsened physical activity and screen time during the COVID-19 confinement were 95.2% and 69.8%, respectively. The current study evidence the negative effects of the COVID-19 confinement on physical activity and screen time in Spanish children. These findings should be taken into account to develop and implement future public health strategies for preserving children's lifestyle behaviours and health during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19, lifestyle changes, paediatric, physical activity, screen time

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Authors: Man Wai Leung, Margaret O’Donoghue, Lorna K. P. Suen

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Personal and household hygiene measures are important to prevent upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and other infectious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). An online survey recruited 414 eligible parents in Hong Kong to study their hygiene knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) in the prevention of URTIs among their children. The average knowledge score was high (10.2/12.0), but some misconceptions were identified. The majority of participants agreed that good personal hygiene (93.5%) and good environmental hygiene (92.8%) can prevent URTIs. The average score for hand hygiene practices was high (3.78/4.00), but only 56.8% of parents always perform hand hygiene before touching their mouth, nose, or eyes. For environmental hygiene, only some household items were disinfected with disinfectants (69.8%: door handles, 60.4%: toilet seats, 42.8%: floor, 24.2%: dining chairs, 20.5%: dining tables). Higher knowledge score was associated with parents having a tertiary educational level or above, working as healthcare professionals, living at private residential flat or staff quarter, and having a household income of $70,000 or above. Hand hygiene practices varied significantly with parents’ age and income. During the 5th wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, misconceptions about hygiene knowledge were found among parents. Health promotion programs should target parents, especially those who are in old age, obtain lower educational levels, live in public housing, or have a lower income. Hand hygiene moments and proper use of disinfectants could be one of the targeted educational topics.

Keywords: hygiene, upper respiratory tract infection, parents, children, COVID-19

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Authors: Agnetha Schuchardt, Jennifer Hartmann, Laura Schulte, Roman Peperhove, Lars Gerhold

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If critical infrastructures fail, even for a short period of time, it can have significant negative consequences for the affected population. This is especially true for the food sector that is strongly interlinked with other sectors like the power supply. A blackout could lead to several cities being without food supply for numerous days, simply because cash register systems do no longer work properly. Following the public opinion, securing the food supply in emergencies is considered a task of the state, however, in the German context, the key players are private enterprises and private households. Both are not aware of their responsibility and both cannot be forced to take any preventive measures prior to an emergency. This problem became evident to officials and politicians so that the law covering food security was revised in order to include private stakeholders into mitigation processes. The paper will present a scientific review of governmental and regulatory literature. The focus is the inclusion of the food industry through a law reform and the challenges that still exist. Together with legal experts, an analysis of regulations will be presented that explains the development of the law reform concerning food security and emergency storage in Germany. The main findings are that the existing public food emergency storage is out-dated, insufficient and too expensive. The state is required to protect food as a critical infrastructure but does not have the capacities to live up to this role. Through a law reform in 2017, new structures should to established. The innovation was to include the private sector into the civil defense concept since it has the required knowledge and experience. But the food industry is still reluctant. Preventive measures do not serve economic purposes – on the contrary, they cost money. The paper will discuss respective examples like equipping supermarkets with emergency power supply or self-sufficient cash register systems and why the state is not willing to cover the costs of these measures, but neither is the economy. The biggest problem with the new law is that private enterprises can only be forced to support food security if the state of emergency has occurred already and not one minute earlier. The paper will cover two main results: the literature review and an expert workshop that will be conducted in summer 2018 with stakeholders from different parts of the food supply chain as well as officials of the public food emergency concept. The results from this participative process will be presented and recommendations will be offered that show how the private economy could be better included into a modern food emergency concept (e. g. tax reductions for stockpiling).

Keywords: critical infrastructure, disaster control, emergency food storage, food security, private economy, resilience

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Authors: Dina Maratovna Aikenova

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Child care policy must be a priority area of public authorities in any country. This study investigates child care policy in Kazakhstan in accordance with the current position of children and laws. The results show that Kazakhstan policy in this sphere needs more systematic model including state economic and social measures, parental involvement and role of non-government organizations.

Keywords: children, Kazakhstan, policy, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: Ali Masria , Abdelazim Negm, Moheb Iskander, Oliver C. Saavedra

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Estuaries play an important role in exchanging water and providing a navigational pathway for ships. These zones are very sensitive and vulnerable to any interventions in coastal dynamics. Almost major of these inlets experience coastal problems such as severe erosion, and accretion. Rosetta promontory, Egypt is an example of this environment. It suffers from many coastal problems as erosion problem along the coastline and siltation problem inside the inlet. It is due to lack of water and sediment resources as a side effect of constructing the Aswan High dam. The shoaling of the inlet leads to hindering the navigation process of fishing boats, negative impacts to estuarine and salt marsh habitat and decrease the efficiency of the cross section to transfer the flow during emergencies to the sea. This paper aims to reach a new condition of stability of Rosetta Promontory by using coastal measures to control the sediment entering, and causes shoaling inside the inlet. These coastal measures include modifying the inlet cross section by using centered jetties, eliminate the coastal dynamic in the entrance using boundary jetties. This target is achieved by using a hydrodynamic model Coastal Modeling System (CMS). Extensive field data collection (hydrographic surveys, wave data, tide data, and bed morphology) is used to build and calibrate the model. About 20 scenarios were tested to reach a suitable solution that mitigate the coastal problems at the inlet. The results show that 360 m jetty in the eastern bank with system of sand bypass from the leeside of the jetty can stabilize the estuary.

Keywords: Rosetta promontory, erosion, sedimentation, inlet stability

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Authors: Raman Sharma, Ashok Kumar, Vipin Koushal

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Healthcare facilities are always seen as places of haven and protection for managing the external incidents, but the situation becomes more difficult and challenging when such facilities themselves are affected from internal hazards. Such internal hazards are arguably more disruptive than external incidents affecting vulnerable ones, as patients are always dependent on supportive measures and are neither in a position to respond to such crisis situation nor do they know how to respond. The situation becomes more arduous and exigent to manage if, in case critical care areas like Intensive Care Units (ICUs) and Operating Rooms (OR) are convoluted. And, due to these complexities of patients’ in-housed there, it becomes difficult to move such critically ill patients on immediate basis. Healthcare organisations use different types of electrical equipment, inflammable liquids, and medical gases often at a single point of use, hence, any sort of error can spark the fire. Even though healthcare facilities face many fire hazards, damage caused by smoke rather than flames is often more severe. Besides burns, smoke inhalation is primary cause of fatality in fire-related incidents. The greatest cause of illness and mortality in fire victims, particularly in enclosed places, appears to be the inhalation of fire smoke, which contains a complex mixture of gases in addition to carbon monoxide. Therefore, healthcare organizations are required to have a well-planned disaster mitigation strategy, proactive and well prepared manpower to cater all types of exigencies resulting from internal as well as external hazards. This case report delineates a true OR fire incident in Emergency Operation Theatre (OT) of a tertiary care multispecialty hospital and details the real life evidence of the challenges encountered by OR staff in preserving both life and property. No adverse event was reported during or after this fire commotion, yet, this case report aimed to congregate the lessons identified of the incident in a sequential and logical manner. Also, timely smoke evacuation and preventing the spread of smoke to adjoining patient care areas by opting appropriate measures, viz. compartmentation, pressurisation, dilution, ventilation, buoyancy, and airflow, helped to reduce smoke-related fatalities. Henceforth, precautionary measures may be implemented to mitigate such incidents. Careful coordination, continuous training, and fire drill exercises can improve the overall outcomes and minimize the possibility of these potentially fatal problems, thereby making a safer healthcare environment for every worker and patient.

Keywords: healthcare, fires, smoke, management, strategies

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Authors: Olubisi Friday Oluduro

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The Paris Agreement 2015, the result of negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), after Kyoto Protocol expiration, sets a long-term goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and of pursuing efforts to limiting this temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. An advancement on the erstwhile Kyoto Protocol which sets commitments to only a limited number of Parties to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, it includes the goal to increase the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and to make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHGs emissions. For it achieve these goals, the Agreement requires all Parties to undertake efforts towards reaching global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible and towards achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks in the second half of the twenty-first century. In addition to climate change mitigation, the Agreement aims at enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing the vulnerability to climate change in different parts of the world. It acknowledges the importance of addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse of climate change. The Agreement also contains comprehensive provisions on support to be provided to developing countries, which includes finance, technology transfer and capacity building. To ensure that such supports and actions are transparent, the Agreement contains a number reporting provisions, requiring parties to choose the efforts and measures that mostly suit them (Nationally Determined Contributions), providing for a mechanism of assessing progress and increasing global ambition over time by a regular global stocktake. Despite the somewhat global look of the Agreement, it has been fraught with manifold limitations threatening its very existential capability to produce any meaningful result. Considering these obvious limitations some of which were the very cause of the failure of its predecessor—the Kyoto Protocol—such as the non-participation of the United States, non-payment of funds into the various coffers for appropriate strategic purposes, among others. These have left the developing countries largely threatened eve the more, being more vulnerable than the developed countries, which are really responsible for the climate change scourge. The paper seeks to examine the mitigation and adaptation measures under the Paris Agreement 2015, appraise the present situation since the Agreement was concluded and ascertain whether the developing countries have been better or worse off since the Agreement was concluded, and examine why and how, while projecting a way forward in the present circumstance. It would conclude with recommendations towards ameliorating the situation.

Keywords: mitigation, adaptation, climate change, Paris agreement 2015, framework

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Authors: Kateryna Kulyk

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Anti-corruption education is an integral element of the corruption prevention mechanism of any state. Effective implementation of anti-corruption policy is impossible without awareness-raising activities. Information campaigns should target different social groups and aim to reduce tolerance to any form of corruption. Today, Ukraine and Lithuania have all the necessary infrastructure to actively work in this direction. Anti-corruption measures and building a society resistant to corruption are particularly important in the context of martial law in Ukraine and the state of emergency in Lithuania, as these conditions increase the risks of corrupt practices. To implement this area of activity, it is recommended to actively involve all state and local authorities, business representatives, non-governmental organisations, and all interested citizens. As of today, educational institutions, specialised anti-corruption bodies, and the public are already involved in this process. The purpose of the research is to draw public attention to the need and importance of obtaining basic knowledge on combating and preventing corruption, even in a state of emergency or martial law. This topic remains relevant even during the period of a state of emergency or martial law, as the risk of corrupt practices increases during these periods. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of the anti-corruption policies of Ukraine and Lithuania, sociological research, and our own survey of anti-corruption experts. Legislation, reports of anti-corruption bodies and civil society organisations were analysed. We also conducted an anonymous survey of 13 anti-corruption experts on the most important anti-corruption measures in the countries studied. The main contribution of the research is to draw attention to the problem of low awareness of the population of countries about the importance of anti-corruption education as one of the necessary conditions for reducing corruption practices.

Keywords: corruption, prevention and combating of corruption, education, anti-corruption education, martial law, state of emergency

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Authors: Ferdinando Montemari, Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello

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The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: flapping dynamics, flight dynamics, system identification, tilt-rotor modeling and simulation

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Authors: Nuwan Karunarathna, Hemali Seneviratne

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Distribution Utilities inherently present electrical hazards for their workers in addition to the general public especially due to bare overhead lines spreading out over a large geographical area. Therefore, certain procedures such as; de-energization, verification of de-energization, isolation, lock-out tag-out and earthing are carried out to ensure safe working conditions when conducting maintenance work on de-energized overhead lines. However, measures must be taken to coordinate the above procedures and to ensure successful and accurate execution of those procedures. Issuing of 'Work Permits' is such a measure that is used by the Distribution Utility considered in this paper. Unfortunately, the Work Permit method adopted by the Distribution Utility concerned here has not been successful in creating the safe working conditions as expected which was evidenced by four (4) number of fatalities of workers due to electrocution occurred in the Distribution Utility from 2016 to 2018. Therefore, this paper attempts to identify deficiencies in the Work Permit method and related contributing factors through careful analysis of the four (4) fatalities and work place practices to rectify the short comings to prevent future incidents. The analysis shows that the present level of coordination between the 'Authorized Person' who issues the work permit and the 'Competent Person' who performs the actual work is grossly inadequate to achieve the intended safe working conditions. The paper identifies the need of active participation of a 'Control Person' who oversees the whole operation from a bird’s eye perspective and recommends further measures that are derived through the analysis of the fatalities to address the identified lapses in the current work permit system.

Keywords: authorized person, competent person, control person, de-energization, distribution utility, isolation, lock-out tag-out, overhead lines, work permit

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Apisit Nawapanpong, Natthapat Boonjerm

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This project aims to analyze and identify the flight plan of low-altitude aviation in Thailand and other countries. The development of UAV technology has led the innovation and revolution in the aviation industry; this includes the development of new modes of passenger or freight transportation, and it has also affected other industries widely. At present, this technology is being developed rapidly and has been tested all over the world to make the most efficient for technology or innovation, and it is likely to grow more extensively. However, no flight plan for low-altitude operation has been published by the government organization; when compared with high-altitude aviation with manned aircraft, various unique factors are different, whether mission, operation, altitude range or airspace restrictions. In the study of the essential components of low-altitude operation measures to be practical and tangible, there were major problems, so the main consideration of this project is to analyze the components of low-altitude operations which are conducted up to the altitudes of 400 ft or 120 meters above ground level referring to the terrain, for example, air traffic management, classification of aircraft, basic necessity and safety, and control area. This research will focus on confirming the theory through qualitative and quantitative research combined with theoretical modeling and regulatory framework and by gaining insights from various positions in aviation industries, including aviation experts, government officials, air traffic controllers, pilots, and airline operators to identify the critical essential components of low-altitude flight operation. This project analyzes by using computer programs for science and statistics research to prove that the result is equivalent to the theory and be beneficial for regulating the flight plan for low-altitude operation by different essential components from this project and can be further developed for future studies and research in aviation industries.

Keywords: low-altitude aviation, UAV technology, flight plan, air traffic management, safety measures

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Authors: Rachana Tank, Donald. M. Lyall, Kristin Flegal, Joey Ward, Jonathan Cavanagh

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Alzheimer’s research UK estimates by 2050, 2 million individuals will be living with Late Onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, individuals experience considerable cognitive deficits and brain pathology over decades before reaching clinically diagnosable LOAD and studies have utilised gene candidate studies such as genome wide association studies (GWAS) and polygenic risk (PGR) scores to identify high risk individuals and potential pathways. This investigation aims to determine whether high genetic risk of LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive performance in healthy older adults within the UK Biobank cohort. Previous studies investigating associations of PGR for LOAD and measures of MRI or cognitive functioning have focused on specific aspects of hippocampal structure, in relatively small sample sizes and with poor ‘controlling’ for confounders such as smoking. Both the sample size of this study and the discovery GWAS sample are bigger than previous studies to our knowledge. Genetic interaction between loci showing largest effects in GWAS have not been extensively studied and it is known that APOE e4 poses the largest genetic risk of LOAD with potential gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of e4, for this reason we  also analyse genetic interactions of PGR with the APOE e4 genotype. High genetic loading based on a polygenic risk score of 21 SNPs for LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive outcomes in healthy individuals within the UK Biobank cohort. Summary statistics from Kunkle et al., GWAS meta-analyses (case: n=30,344, control: n=52,427) will be used to create polygenic risk scores based on 21 SNPs and analyses will be carried out in N=37,000 participants in the UK Biobank. This will be the largest study to date investigating PGR of LOAD in relation to MRI. MRI outcome measures include WM tracts, structural volumes. Cognitive function measures include reaction time, pairs matching, trail making, digit symbol substitution and prospective memory. Interaction of the APOE e4 alleles and PGR will be analysed by including APOE status as an interaction term coded as either 0, 1 or 2 e4 alleles. Models will be adjusted partially for adjusted for age, BMI, sex, genotyping chip, smoking, depression and social deprivation. Preliminary results suggest PGR score for LOAD is associated with decreased hippocampal volumes including hippocampal body (standardised beta = -0.04, P = 0.022) and tail (standardised beta = -0.037, P = 0.030), but not with hippocampal head. There were also associations of genetic risk with decreased cognitive performance including fluid intelligence (standardised beta = -0.08, P<0.01) and reaction time (standardised beta = 2.04, P<0.01). No genetic interactions were found between APOE e4 dose and PGR score for MRI or cognitive measures. The generalisability of these results is limited by selection bias within the UK Biobank as participants are less likely to be obese, smoke, be socioeconomically deprived and have fewer self-reported health conditions when compared to the general population. Lack of a unified approach or standardised method for calculating genetic risk scores may also be a limitation of these analyses. Further discussion and results are pending.

Keywords: Alzheimer's dementia, cognition, polygenic risk, MRI

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Stephanie Giordano, Rosa Plasencia

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In the USA, in 2013, public service systems such as Medicaid, aging, and disability systems undertook an effort to measure the quality of service delivery by examining the experiences and outcomes of those receiving public services. The goal of this effort was to develop a survey to measure the experiences and outcomes of those receiving public services, with the goal of measuring system performance for quality improvement. The performance indicators were developed through with input from directors of state aging and disability service systems, along with experts and stakeholders in the field across the United States. This effort, National Core Indicators –Aging and Disabilities (NCI-AD), grew out of National Core Indicators –Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities, an effort to measure developmental disability (DD) systems across the States. The survey tool and administration protocol underwent multiple rounds of testing and revision between 2013 and 2015. The measures in the final tool – called the Adult Consumer Survey (ACS) – emphasize not just important indicators of healthcare access and personal safety but also includes indicators of system quality based on person-centered outcomes. These measures indicate whether service systems support older adults and people with disabilities to live where they want, maintain relationships and engage in their communities and have choice and control in their everyday lives. Launched in 2015, the NCI-AD Adult Consumer Survey is now used in 23 states in the US. Surveys are conducted by NCI-AD trained surveyors via direct conversation with a person receiving public long-term services and supports (LTSS). Until 2020, surveys were only conducted in person. However, after a pilot to test the reliability of videoconference and telephone survey modes, these modes were adopted as an acceptable practice. The nature of the survey is that of a “guided conversation” survey administration allows for surveyor to use wording and terminology that is best understand by the person surveyed. The survey includes a subset of questions that may be answered by a proxy respondent who knows the person well if the person is receiving services in unable to provide valid responses on their own. Surveyors undergo a standardized training on survey administration to ensure the fidelity of survey administration. In addition to the main survey section, a Background Information section collects data on personal and service-related characteristics of the person receiving services; these data are typically collected through state administrative record. This information is helps provide greater context around the characteristics of people receiving services. It has also been used in conjunction with outcomes measures to look at disparity (including by race and ethnicity, gender, disability, and living arrangements). These measures of quality are critical for public service delivery systems to understand the unique needs of the population of older adults and improving the lives of older adults as well as people with disabilities. Participating states may use these data to identify areas for quality improvement within their service delivery systems, to advocate for specific policy change, and to better understand the experiences of specific populations of people served.

Keywords: quality of life, long term services and supports, person-centered practices, aging and disability research, survey methodology

Procedia PDF Downloads 122