Search results for: angular distribution for Cr deposition rate

Authors: Rana Rimawi, Ayman Baklizi

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Skewed distributions are important models that are frequently used in applications. Generalized distributions form a class of skewed distributions and gain widespread use in applications because of their flexibility in data analysis. More specifically, the Generalized Logistic Distribution with its different types has received considerable attention recently. In this study, based on progressively type-II censored data, we will consider point estimation in type II Generalized Logistic Distribution (Type II GLD). We will develop several estimators for its unknown parameters, including maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), Bayes estimators and linear estimators (BLUE). The estimators will be compared using simulation based on the criteria of bias and Mean square error (MSE). An illustrative example of a real data set will be given.

Keywords: point estimation, type II generalized logistic distribution, progressive censoring, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: S. Naveen, V. Sivasubramanian

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A modeling theory is proposed to consider the vaporization of LNG during its contact with water following its release from an underwater source. The spillage of LNG underwater can lead to a decrease in the surface temperature of water and subsequent freezing. This can in turn affect the heat flux distribution from the released LNG onto the water surrounding it. The available models predict the rate of vaporization considering the surface of contact as a solid wall, and considering the entire phenomena as a solid-liquid operation. This assumption greatly under-predicted the overall heat transfer on LNG water interface. The vaporization flux would first decrease during the film boiling, followed by an increase during the transition boiling and a steady decrease during the nucleate boiling. A superheat theory is introduced to enhance the accuracy in the prediction of the heat transfer between LNG and water. The work suggests that considering the superheat theory can greatly enhance the prediction of LNG vaporization on underwater releases and also help improve the study of overall thermodynamics.

Keywords: evaporation rate, heat transfer, LNG vaporization, underwater LNG release

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Authors: Oloyede John Adebayo

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This paper tested a variant of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, called Frankel’s Capital Account Monetary Model (CAAM) based on Real Interest Rate Differential, on the floating exchange rate experiences of three developing countries of Africa; viz: Ghana, Nigeria and the Gambia. The study adopted the Auto regressive Instrumental Package (AIV) and Almon Polynomial Lag Procedure of regression analysis based on the assumption that the coefficients follow a third-order Polynomial with zero-end constraint. The results found some support for the CAAM hypothesis that exchange rate responds proportionately to changes in money supply, inversely to income and positively to interest rates and expected inflation differentials. On this basis, the study points the attention of monetary authorities and researchers to the relevance and usefulness of CAAM as appropriate tool and useful benchmark for analyzing the exchange rate behaviour of most developing countries.

Keywords: exchange rate, monetary model, interest differentials, capital account

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Authors: C. F. Kumru, C. Kocatepe, O. Arikan

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In this study, electric field distribution analyses for three pylon models are carried out by a Finite Element Method (FEM) based software. Analyses are performed in both stationary and time domains to observe instantaneous values along with the effective ones. Considering the results of the study, different line geometries is considerably affecting the magnitude and distribution of electric field although the line voltages are the same. Furthermore, it is observed that maximum values of instantaneous electric field obtained in time domain analysis are quite higher than the effective ones in stationary mode. In consequence, electric field distribution analyses should be individually made for each different line model and the limit exposure values or distances to residential buildings should be defined according to the results obtained.

Keywords: electric field, energy transmission line, finite element method, pylon

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Authors: Chaitanya Varma, Arpan Mehar

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The present study demonstrates the procedure to analyse speed data collected on various four-lane divided sections in India. Field data for the study was collected at different straight and curved sections on rural highways with the help of radar speed gun and video camera. The data collected at the sections were analysed and parameters pertain to speed distributions were estimated. The different statistical distribution was analysed on vehicle type speed data and for mixed traffic speed data. It was found that vehicle type speed data was either follows the normal distribution or Log-normal distribution, whereas the mixed traffic speed data follows more than one type of statistical distribution. The most common fit observed on mixed traffic speed data were Beta distribution and Weibull distribution. The separate operating speed model based on traffic and roadway geometric parameters were proposed in the present study. The operating speed model with traffic parameters and curve geometry parameters were established. Two different operating speed models were proposed with variables 1/R and Ln(R) and were found to be realistic with a different range of curve radius. The models developed in the present study are simple and realistic and can be used for forecasting operating speed on four-lane highways.

Keywords: highway, mixed traffic flow, modeling, operating speed

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Authors: Todd Zhou, Mikhail Yurochkin

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Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is receiving increasing amounts of attention in the machine learning research community, boosted by recent technologies, such as autonomous driving and image processing. This newly-burgeoning field has called for the need for more effective and efficient methods for out-of-distribution generalization methods. Without accessing the label information, deploying machine learning models to out-of-distribution domains becomes extremely challenging since it is impossible to evaluate model performance on unseen domains. To tackle this out-of-distribution detection difficulty, we designed a model selection pipeline algorithm and developed a model selection framework with different impurity and randomness measurements to evaluate and choose the best-performing models for out-of-distribution data. By exploring different randomness scores based on predicted probabilities, we adopted the out-of-distribution entropy and developed a custom-designed score, ”CombinedScore,” as the evaluation criterion. This proposed score was created by adding labeled source information into the judging space of the uncertainty entropy score using harmonic mean. Furthermore, the prediction bias was explored through the equality of opportunity violation measurement. We also improved machine learning model performance through model calibration. The effectiveness of the framework with the proposed evaluation criteria was validated on the Folktables American Community Survey (ACS) datasets.

Keywords: model selection, domain generalization, model fairness, randomness measurements, bias index

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Authors: Md. Shaheen Shah, Abdelsalam Abugharara, Dipesh Maharjan, Syed Imtiaz, Stephen Butt

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Drilling performance is an essential goal in petroleum and mining industry. Drilling rate of penetration (ROP), which is inversely proportional to the mechanical specific energy (MSE) is influenced by numerous factors among which are the applied parameter: torque (T), weight on bit (WOB), fluid flow rate, revolution per minute (rpm), rock related parameters: rock type, rock homogeneousness, rock anisotropy orientation, and mechanical parameters: bit type, configuration of the bottom hole assembly (BHA). This paper is focused on studying the drilling performance by implementing a passive vibration assisted rotary drilling tool (pVARD) as part of the BHA through using different bit types: coring bit, roller cone bit, and PDC bit and various rock types: rock-like material, granite, sandstone, etc. The results of this study aim to produce a pVARD index for optimal drilling performance considering the recommendations of the pVARD’s spring compression tests and stress-strain analysis of rock samples conducted prior to drilling experiments, analyzing the cutting size distribution, and evaluating the applied drilling parameters as a function of WOB. These results are compared with those obtained from drilling without pVARD, which represents the typical rigid BHA of the conventional drilling.

Keywords: BHA, drilling performance, MSE, pVARD, rate of penetration, ROP, tensile and shear fractures, unconfined compressive strength

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Authors: Majid Habib Khan, Jinwei Zhao, Xinhong Hei, Liu Jiedong, Rana Shahzad Noor, Muhammad Imran

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Deep learning is increasingly employed in image classification, yet the scarcity and high cost of labeled data for training remain a challenge. Limited samples often lead to overfitting due to biased sample distribution. This paper introduces a dynamic distribution calibration method for few-shot learning. Initially, base and new class samples undergo normalization to mitigate disparate feature magnitudes. A pre-trained model then extracts feature vectors from both classes. The method dynamically selects distribution characteristics from base classes (both adjacent and remote) in the embedding space, using a threshold value approach for new class samples. Given the propensity of similar classes to share feature distributions like mean and variance, this research assumes a Gaussian distribution for feature vectors. Subsequently, distributional features of new class samples are calibrated using a corrected hyperparameter, derived from the distribution features of both adjacent and distant base classes. This calibration augments the new class sample set. The technique demonstrates significant improvements, with up to 4% accuracy gains in few-shot classification challenges, as evidenced by tests on miniImagenet and CUB datasets.

Keywords: deep learning, computer vision, image classification, few-shot learning, threshold

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Authors: H. Bhowmik, A. Faisal, Ahmed Al Yaarubi, Nabil Al Alawi

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Experiments are conducted to analyze the steady-state and the power-on transient natural convection heat transfer from a horizontal cylinder mounted in a vertical up flow circular duct. The heat flux ranges from 177 W/m² to 2426 W/m² and the Rayleigh number ranges from 1×10⁴ to 4.35×10⁴. For natural air flow and constant heat flux condition, the effects of heat transfer around the cylinder under steady-state condition are investigated. The steady-state results compare favorably with that of the available data. The effects of transient heat transfer data on different angular position of the thermocouple (0^o, 90^o, 180^o) are also reported. It is observed that the transient heat transfer around the cylinder is strongly affected by the position of thermocouples. In the transient region, the rate of heat transfer obtained at 90^o and 180^o are higher than that of stagnation point (0^o). Finally, the dependence of the average Nusselt number on Rayleigh number for steady and transient natural convection heat transfer are analyzed, and a correlation equation is presented.

Keywords: Fourier number, Nusselt number, Rayleigh number, steady state, transient

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Authors: Norazlin Mohamad, Saiful Adli Bukry, Zarina Zahari, Haidzir Manaf, Hanafi Sawalludin

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Background: Deficit in neuromuscular recruitment and decrease force distribution were the common problems among ankle instability patients due to altered joint kinematics that lead to recurrent ankle injuries. Rigid Tape and KT Tape had widely been used as therapeutic and performance enhancement tools in ankle stability. However the difference effect between this two tapes is still controversial. Objective: To investigate the different effect between Rigid Tape and KT Tape on force distribution and muscle activation among ankle instability patients while standing. Study design: Crossover trial. Participants: 27 patients, age between 18 to 30 years old participated in this study. All the subjects were applied with KT Tape & Rigid Tape on their affected ankle with 3 days of interval for each intervention. The subjects were tested with their barefoot (without tape) first to act as a baseline before proceeding with KT Tape, and then with Rigid Tape. Result: There were no significant difference on force distribution at forefoot and back-foot for both tapes while standing. However the mean data shows that Rigid Tape has the highest force distribution at back-foot rather than forefoot when compared with KT Tape that had more force distribution at forefoot while standing. Regarding muscle activation (Peroneus Longus), results showed significant difference between Rigid Tape and KT Tape (p= 0.048). However, there was no significant difference on Tibialis Anterior muscle activation between both tapes while standing. Conclusion: The results indicated that Peroneus longus muscle was more active when applied Rigid Tape rather than KT Tape in ankle instability patients while standing.

Keywords: ankle instability, kinematic, muscle activation, force distribution, Rigid Tape, KT tape

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method with the unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with the unknown probability distribution.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete time systems, probabilistic constraints

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Young-Min Ko, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Recently developed cooperative diversity scheme enables a terminal to get transmit diversity through the support of other terminals. However, most of the introduced cooperative schemes have a common fault of decreased transmission rate because the destination should receive the decodable compositions of symbols from the source and the relay. In order to achieve high data rate, we propose a cooperative scheme that employs hierarchical modulation. This scheme is free from the rate loss and allows seamless cooperative communication.

Keywords: cooperative communication, hierarchical modulation, high data rate, transmission scheme

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Authors: Jiancheng Zheng

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When metals are released into water from mining activities, they undergo changes chemically, physically and biologically and then may become more mobile and transportable along the waterway from their original sites. Natural colloids, including both organic and inorganic entities, are naturally occurring in any aquatic environment with sizes in the nanometer range. Natural colloids in a water system play an important role, quite often a key role, in binding and transporting compounds. When assessing and evaluating metals in natural waters, their sources, mobility, fate, and distribution patterns in the system are the major concerns from the point of view of assessing environmental contamination and pollution during resource development. There are a few ways to quantify colloids and accordingly study how metals distribute on different sizes of colloids. Current research results show that the presence of colloids can enhance the transport of some heavy metals in water, while heavy metals may also have an influence on the transport of colloids when cations in the water system change colloids and/or the ion strength of the water system changes. Therefore, studies into the relationship between different sizes of colloids and different metals in a water system are necessary and needed as natural colloids in water systems are complex mixtures of both organic and inorganic as well as biological materials. Their stability could be sensitive to changes in their shapes, phases, hardness and functionalities due to coagulation and deposition et al. and chemical, physical, and biological reactions. Because metal contaminants’ adsorption on surfaces of colloids is closely related to colloid properties, it is desired to fraction water samples as soon as possible after a sample is taken in the natural environment in order to avoid changes to water samples during transportation and storage. For this reason, this study carried out groundwater sample processing in the field, using Prep/Scale tangential flow filtration systems with 3-level cartridges (1 kDa, 10 kDa and 100 kDa). Groundwater samples from seven sites at Fort MacMurray, Alberta, Canada, were fractionated during the 2015 field sampling season. All samples were processed within 3 hours after samples were taken. Preliminary results show that although the distribution pattern of metals on colloids may vary with different samples taken from different sites, some elements often tend to larger colloids (such as Fe and Re), some to finer colloids (such as Sb and Zn), while some of them mainly in the dissolved form (such as Mo and Be). This information is useful to evaluate and project the fate and mobility of different metals in the groundwaters and possibly in environmental water systems.

Keywords: metal, colloid, groundwater, mobility, fractionation, sorption

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Authors: Longqing Li

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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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Authors: Łukasz Mazur, Kamil Domaradzki, Maciej Bik, Tomasz Brylewski, Aleksander Gil

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Interconnects used in solid oxide fuel and electrolyzer cells (SOFCₛ/SOECs) serve several important functions, and therefore interconnect materials must exhibit certain properties. Their thermal expansion coefficient needs to match that of the ceramic components of these devices – the electrolyte, anode and cathode. Interconnects also provide structural rigidity to the entire device, which is why interconnect materials must exhibit sufficient mechanical strength at high temperatures. Gas-tightness is also a prerequisite since they separate gas reagents, and they also must provide very good electrical contact between neighboring cells over the entire operating time. High-chromium ferritic steels meets these requirements to a high degree but are affected by the formation of a Cr₂O₃ scale, which leads to increased electrical resistance. The final criterion for interconnect materials is chemical inertness in relation to the remaining cell components. In the case of ferritic steels, this has proved difficult due to the formation of volatile and reactive oxyhydroxides observed when Cr₂O3 is exposed to oxygen and water vapor. This process is particularly harmful on the cathode side in SOFCs and the anode side in SOECs. To mitigate this, protective-conducting ceramic coatings can be deposited on an interconnect's surface. The area-specific resistance (ASR) of a single interconnect cannot exceed 0.1 m-2 at any point of the device's operation. The rate at which the CrO₃ scale grows on ferritic steels can be reduced significantly via the so-called reactive element effect (REE). Research has shown that the deposition of Gd₂O₃ nanoparticles on the surface of the Crofer 22 APU, already modified using a protective-conducting spinel layer, further improves the oxidation resistance of this steel. However, the deposition of the manganese-cobalt spinel layer is a rather complex process and is performed at high temperatures in reducing and oxidizing atmospheres. There was thus reason to believe that this process may reduce the effectiveness of Gd₂O₃ nanoparticles added as an active element source. The objective of the present study was, therefore, to determine any potential impact by introducing a preoxidation stage after the nanoparticle deposition and before the steel is coated with the spinel. This should have allowed the nanoparticles to incorporate into the interior of the scale formed on the steel. Different samples were oxidized for 7000 h in air at 1073 K under quasi-isothermal conditions. The phase composition, chemical composition, and microstructure of the oxidation products formed on the samples were determined using X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy combined with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. A four-point, two-probe DC method was applied to measure ASR. It was found that coating deposition does indeed reduce the beneficial effect of Gd₂O₃ addition, since the smallest mass gain and the lowest ASR value were determined for the sample for which the additional preoxidation stage had been performed. It can be assumed that during this stage, gadolinium incorporates into and segregates at grain boundaries in the thin Cr₂O₃ that is forming. This allows the Gd₂O₃ nanoparticles to be a more effective source of the active element.

Keywords: interconnects, oxide nanoparticles, reactive element effect, SOEC, SOFC

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Authors: Yinebeb Mezgebu Dagnachew, Hwee Ying Lim, Liao Wupeng, Sheau Yng Lim, Lim Sheng Jie Natalie, Veronique Angeli

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Collagen is essential for maintaining lung structure and function, and its remodeling has been associated with respiratory diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the cellular mechanisms driving collagen remodeling and the functional implications of this process in the pathophysiology of pulmonary diseases remain poorly understood. Using a mouse model of Lyve-1 expressing macrophage depletion, we found that the absence of this subpopulation of tissue-resident macrophage led to the preferential deposition of type I collagen fibers around the alveoli and bronchi in the steady state. Further analysis by polarized light microscopy revealed that the collagen fibers accumulating in the lungs depleted of Lyve-1+ macrophages were thicker and crosslinked. A decrease in MMP-9 gene expression and proteolytic activity, together with an increase in Col1a1, Timp-3 and Lox gene expression, accompanied the collagen alterations. Next, we investigated the effect of the collagen remodeling on the pathophysiology of COPD and airway function in mouse lacking Lyve-1+ macrophage exposed chronically to cigarette smoke (CS), a well-established animal model of COPD. We showed that the deposition of collagen protected mouse against the destruction of alveoli (emphysema) and bronchi thickening after CS exposure and prevented loss of airway function. Thus, we demonstrate that interstitial Lyve-1+ macrophages regulate the composition, amount, and architecture of the collagen network in the lungs and that such collagen remodeling functionally impacts the development of COPD. This study further supports the potential of targeting collagen as a promising approach to treating respiratory diseases.

Keywords: lung, extracellular matrix, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, matrix metalloproteinases, collagen

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Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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Authors: Ramin Rostamkhani, Thurasamy Ramayah

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One of the most important topics of today’s industrial organizations is the challenging issue of supply chain management. In this field, scientists and researchers have published numerous practical articles and models, especially in the last decade. In this research, to our best knowledge, the discussion of data modeling of supply chain management components using well-known statistical distribution functions has been considered. The world of science owns mathematics, and showing the behavior of supply chain data based on the characteristics of statistical distribution functions is innovative research that has not been published anywhere until the moment of doing this research. In an analytical process, describing different aspects of functions including probability density, cumulative distribution, reliability, and failure function can reach the suitable statistical distribution function for each of the components of the supply chain management. It can be applied to predict the behavior data of the relevant component in the future. Providing a model to adapt the best statistical distribution function in the supply chain management components will be a big revolution in the field of the behavior of the supply chain management elements in today's industrial organizations. Demonstrating the final results of the proposed model by introducing the process capability indices before and after implementing it alongside verifying the approach through the relevant assessment as an acceptable verification is a final step. The introduced approach can save the required time and cost to achieve the organizational goals. Moreover, it can increase added value in the organization.

Keywords: analyzing, process capability indices, statistical distribution functions, supply chain management components

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Authors: Hanmei Peng, Yiqun Wang, Mao Tan, Zhuocen Dai, Yongxin Su

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Efficient energy management in multi-microgrid distribution systems holds significant importance for enhancing the economic benefits of regional power grids. To better balance conflicts among various stakeholders, a two-stage game-based collaborative optimization approach is proposed in this paper, effectively addressing the realistic scenario involving both competition and collaboration among stakeholders. The first stage, aimed at maximizing individual benefits, involves constructing a non-cooperative tariff game model for the distribution network and surplus microgrid. In the second stage, considering power flow and physical line capacity constraints we establish a cooperative P2P game model for the multi-microgrid distribution system, and the optimization involves employing the Lagrange method of multipliers to handle complex constraints. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively improve the system economics while harmonizing individual and collective rationality.

Keywords: cooperative game, collaborative optimization, multi-microgrid distribution system, non-cooperative game

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Authors: Md. Rashidul Hasan, Atikur Rahman Baizid

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The Bayesian estimation approach is a non-classical estimation technique in statistical inference and is very useful in real world situation. The aim of this paper is to study the Bayes estimators of the parameter of exponential distribution under different loss functions and then compared among them as well as with the classical estimator named maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In our real life, we always try to minimize the loss and we also want to gather some prior information (distribution) about the problem to solve it accurately. Here the gamma prior is used as the prior distribution of exponential distribution for finding the Bayes estimator. In our study, we also used different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions such as squared error loss function, quadratic loss function, modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function and non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function. Finally, mean square error (MSE) of the estimators are obtained and then presented graphically.

Keywords: Bayes estimator, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function, Squared Error (SE) loss function, non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function

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Authors: Hasan Basri Jumin

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Using the slaughterhouse waste combined to suitable dose of nitrogen fertilizer to Apium glaviolen gives the significant effect to mean relative growth rate. The same pattern also showed significantly in net assimilation rate. The net assimilation rate increased significantly during 42 days old plants. Combination of treatment of 100 ml/l animal slaughterhouse waste and 0.1 g/kg nitrogen fertilizer/kg soil increased the vegetative growth of Apium glaviolens. The biomass of plant and mean relative growth rate of Apium glaviolens were rapidly increased in 4 weeks after planting and gradually decreased after 35 days at the harvest time. Combination of 100 ml/l slaughterhouse waste and applied 0.1 g/kg nitrogen fertilizer has increased all parameters. The highest vegetative growth, biomass, mean relative growth rate and net assimilation rate were received from 0.56 mg-l.m-2.days-1.

Keywords: Apium glaviolent, nitrogen, pollutant, slaughterhouse, waste

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Authors: Akinwale Olusola Mokayode, Emaanuel Adu, Seriki Idowu Ibrahim

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Small business can serve as a tool for poverty reduction in South Africa, but it requires adequate support and development for its continuous sustenance in spite of rigorous challenges, especially in the rural environment. This study explored the challenges faced by the small business owners in the rural Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The objective of the study is to identify the challenges faced by small business owners in the case study area and to examine the effects of those challenges on poverty rate. Survey research design was adopted, with the distribution of structured questionnaire for data collection through a simple random sampling method. Descriptive and inferential statistics was used to analyse the data. Findings showed that small business owners face various challenges in their commercial operations. It was also made clearer that these challenges have effects on the poverty rate as well as crime rate. In conclusion, in other for small businesses to be effective instrument to tackle poverty, certain measure must be taken into considerations. This therefore necessitates recommendation from the researcher that potential and current business owners must seek valuable advice from the more experienced business tycoon and seek information about the business assistance programmes provided by government and private sectors.

Keywords: eastern cape, poverty, poverty reduction, rural, small business, sustainable livelihood

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Authors: David Hasurungan

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This paper objective is to analyze the impact from photovoltaic system integration to power distribution network. The case study in Badak Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant is presented in this paper. Badak LNG electricity network is operated in islanded mode. The total power generation in Badak LNG plant is significantly affected to feed gas supply. Meanwhile, to support the Government regulation, Badak LNG continuously implemented the grid-connected photovoltaic system in existing power distribution network. The impact between train operational mode change in Badak LNG plant and the growth of photovoltaic system is also encompassed in analysis. The analysis and calculation are performed using software Power Factory 15.1.

Keywords: power quality, distribution network, grid-connected photovoltaic system, power management system

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Authors: Asmat Nawaz, Ceylan Zafer, Ali K. Erdinc, Kaiying Wang, M. Nadeem Akram

Abstract:

Hybrid halide Perovskites with the general formula ABX₃, where X = Cl, Br or I, are considered as an ideal candidates for the preparation of photovoltaic devices. The most commonly and successfully used hybrid halide perovskite for photovoltaic applications is CH₃NH₃PbI₃ and its analogue prepared from lead chloride, commonly symbolized as CH₃NH₃PbI₃_ₓClₓ. Some researcher groups are using lead free (Sn replaces Pb) and mixed halide perovskites for the fabrication of the devices. Both mesoporous and planar structures have been developed. By Comparing mesoporous structure in which the perovskite materials infiltrate into mesoporous metal oxide scaffold, the planar architecture is much simpler and easy for device fabrication. In a typical perovskite solar cell, a perovskite absorber layer is sandwiched between the hole and electron transport. Upon the irradiation, carriers are created in the absorber layer that can travel through hole and electron transport layers and the interface in between. We fabricated inverted planar heterojunction structure ITO/PEDOT/ Perovskite/PCBM/Al, based solar cell via two-step spin coating method. This is also called Sequential deposition method. A small amount of cheap additive H₂O was added into PbI₂/DMF to make a homogeneous solution. We prepared four different solution such as (W/O H₂O, 1% H₂O, 2% H₂O, 3% H₂O). After preparing, the whole night stirring at 60℃ is essential for the homogenous precursor solutions. We observed that the solution with 1% H₂O was much more homogenous at room temperature as compared to others. The solution with 3% H₂O was precipitated at once at room temperature. The four different films of PbI₂ were formed on PEDOT substrates by spin coating and after that immediately (before drying the PbI₂) the substrates were immersed in the methyl ammonium iodide solution (prepared in isopropanol) for the completion of the desired perovskite film. After getting desired films, rinse the substrates with isopropanol to remove the excess amount of methyl ammonium iodide and finally dried it on hot plate only for 1-2 minutes. In this study, we added H₂O in the PbI₂/DMF precursor solution. The concept of additive is widely used in the bulk- heterojunction solar cells to manipulate the surface morphology, leading to the enhancement of the photovoltaic performance. There are two most important parameters for the selection of additives. (a) Higher boiling point w.r.t host material (b) good interaction with the precursor materials. We observed that the morphology of the films was improved and we achieved a denser, uniform with less cavities and almost full surface coverage films but only using precursor solution having 1% H₂O. Therefore, we fabricated the complete perovskite solar cell by sequential deposition technique with precursor solution having 1% H₂O. We concluded that with the addition of additives in the precursor solutions one can easily be manipulate the morphology of the perovskite film. In the sequential deposition method, thickness of perovskite film is in µm and the charge diffusion length of PbI₂ is in nm. Therefore, by controlling the thickness using other deposition methods for the fabrication of solar cells, we can achieve the better efficiency.

Keywords: methylammonium lead iodide, perovskite solar cell, precursor composition, sequential deposition

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Authors: Christian Meinecke, Bernd Scholz-Reiter

Abstract:

The integrated problem of production and distribution scheduling is relevant in many industrial applications. Thus, many heuristics to solve this integrated problem have been developed in the last decade. Most of these heuristics use a sequential working principal or a single decomposition and integration approach to separate and solve sub-problems. A heuristic using a multi-step decomposition and integration approach is presented in this paper and evaluated in a case study. The result show significant improved results compared with sequential scheduling heuristics.

Keywords: production and outbound distribution, integrated planning, heuristic, decomposition, integration

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Samuel O. Alamu, Seong W. Lee, Blaise Kalmia, Marc J. Louise Caballes, Xuejun Qian

Abstract:

The application of combustion technologies for thermal conversion of biomass and solid wastes to energy has been a major solution to the effective handling of wastes over a long period of time. Lab-scale biomass combustion systems have been observed to be economically viable and socially acceptable, but major concerns are the environmental impacts of the process and deviation of temperature distribution within the combustion chamber. Both high and low combustion chamber temperature may affect the overall combustion efficiency and gaseous emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a control system which measures the deviations of chamber temperature from set target values, sends these deviations (which generates disturbances in the system) in the form of feedback signal (as input), and control operating conditions for correcting the errors. In this research study, major components of the feedback control system were determined, assembled, and tested. In addition, control algorithms were developed to actuate operating conditions (e.g., air velocity, fuel feeding rate) using ladder logic functions embedded in the Programmable Logic Controller (PLC). The developed control algorithm having chamber temperature as a feedback signal is integrated into the lab-scale swirling fluidized bed combustor (SFBC) to investigate the temperature distribution at different heights of the combustion chamber based on various operating conditions. The air blower rates and the fuel feeding rates obtained from automatic control operations were correlated with manual inputs. There was no observable difference in the correlated results, thus indicating that the written PLC program functions were adequate in designing the experimental study of the lab-scale SFBC. The experimental results were analyzed to study the effect of air velocity operating at 222-273 ft/min and fuel feeding rate of 60-90 rpm on the chamber temperature. The developed temperature-based feedback control system was shown to be adequate in controlling the airflow and the fuel feeding rate for the overall biomass combustion process as it helps to minimize the steady-state error.

Keywords: air flow, biomass combustion, feedback control signal, fuel feeding, ladder logic, programmable logic controller, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: T. Lydon, A. McNabola, P. Coughlan

Abstract:

Energy consumption in the water distribution network (WDN) is a well established problem equating to the industry contributing heavily to carbon emissions, with 0.9 kg CO2 emitted per m3 of water supplied. It is indicated that 85% of energy wasted in the WDN can be recovered by installing turbines. Existing potential in networks is present at small capacity sites (5-10 kW), numerous and dispersed across networks. However, traditional turbine technology cannot be scaled down to this size in an economically viable fashion, thus alternative approaches are needed. This research aims to enable energy recovery potential within the WDN by exploring the potential of pumps-as-turbines (PATs), to realise this potential. PATs are estimated to be ten times cheaper than traditional micro-hydro turbines, presenting potential to contribute to an economically viable solution. However, a number of technical constraints currently prohibit their widespread use, including the inability of a PAT to control pressure, difficulty in the selection of PATs due to lack of performance data and a lack of understanding on how PATs can cater for fluctuations as extreme as +/- 50% of the average daily flow, characteristic of the WDN. A PAT prototype is undergoing testing in order to identify the capabilities of the technology. Results of preliminary testing, which involved testing the efficiency and power potential of the PAT for varying flow and pressure conditions, in order to develop characteristic and efficiency curves for the PAT and a baseline understanding of the technologies capabilities, are presented here: •The limitations of existing selection methods which convert BEP from pump operation to BEP in turbine operation was highlighted by the failure of such methods to reflect the conditions of maximum efficiency of the PAT. A generalised selection method for the WDN may need to be informed by an understanding of impact of flow variations and pressure control on system power potential capital cost, maintenance costs, payback period. •A clear relationship between flow and efficiency rate of the PAT has been established. The rate of efficiency reductions for flows +/- 50% BEP is significant and more extreme for deviations in flow above the BEP than below, but not dissimilar to the reaction of efficiency of other turbines. •PAT alone is not sufficient to regulate pressure, yet the relationship of pressure across the PAT is foundational in exploring ways which PAT energy recovery systems can maintain required pressure level within the WDN. Efficiencies of systems of PAT energy recovery systems operating conditions of pressure regulation, which have been conceptualise in current literature, need to be established. Initial results guide the focus of forthcoming testing and exploration of PAT technology towards how PATs can form part of an efficiency energy recovery system.

Keywords: energy recovery, pump-as-turbine, water distribution network, water distribution network

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 365