Search results for: AIDS mortality rates
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4346

Search results for: AIDS mortality rates

3746 A Cohort Study of Early Cardiologist Consultation by Telemedicine on the Critical Non-STEMI Inpatients

Authors: Wisit Wichitkosoom

Abstract:

Objectives: To find out the more effect of early cardiologist consultation using a simple technology on the diagnosis and early proper management of patients with Non-STEMI at emergency department of district hospitals without cardiologist on site before transferred. Methods: A cohort study was performed in Udonthani general hospital at Udonthani province. From 1 October 2012–30 September 2013 with 892 patients diagnosed with Non-STEMI. All patients mean aged 46.8 years of age who had been transferred because of Non-STEMI diagnosed, over a 12 week period of studied. Patients whose transferred, in addition to receiving proper care, were offered a cardiologist consultation with average time to Udonthani hospital 1.5 hour. The main outcome measure was length of hospital stay, mortality at 3 months, inpatient investigation, and transfer rate to the higher facilitated hospital were also studied. Results: Hospital stay was significantly shorter for those didn’t consult cardiologist (hazard ratio 1.19; approximate 95% CI 1.001 to 1.251; p = 0.039). The 136 cases were transferred to higher facilitated hospital. No statistically significant in overall mortality between the groups (p=0.068). Conclusions: Early cardiologist consultant can reduce length of hospital stay for patients with cardiovascular conditions outside of cardiac center. The new basic technology can apply for the safety patient.

Keywords: critical, telemedicine, safety, non STEMI

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3745 Antiplatelets and Anticoagulants in Rural Emergency General Surgery

Authors: Jeong-Moh John Yahng, Angelika Na

Abstract:

Introduction: Increasing numbers of general surgical patients are being prescribed antiplatelet and anticoagulant medications (APAC) for various cardiovascular and cerebrovascular conditions. Surgical patients who are on APAC present a management challenge as bleeding risk needs to be balanced with thromboembolic risk. Although guidelines exist in regards to APAC management in elective surgery, there is a lack of guidelines in the emergency surgery setting. In this study we aim to characterise APAC usage in emergency general surgical patients admitted to a rural hospital. We also assess the impact of APAC usage on clinical management of these patients. Methods: Prospective study of emergency general surgical admissions at Northeast Health Wangaratta (Victoria) from 2 July to 25 Oct 2014. Questionnaire collected demographics data, admission diagnosis, APAC usage, anaesthesia techniques, operation types, transfusion requirement and morbidity / mortality data. Results: During the 4 month study, 118 patients were classified into two groups: non-APAC (n=96, 81%) and APAC (n=22, 19%). Patients in the APAC group were older compared to the non-APAC patients (mean age 72 vs 42 years old). Amongst patients younger than 60 years old, only 1% of them were on APAC. In contrast, 49% of patients older than 60 years old were on APAC (p<0.001). Patients who were admitted with a bleeding problem were more likely to be on APAC (p<0.05). 19% of emergency general surgery patients were on APAC. The majority (91%) of them were on antiplatelet medication, with two patients being on dual antiplatelet agents (aspirin + clopidogrel or ticagrelor). 15% of emergency general surgical patients requiring operations were on APAC. 11% of all laparotomies and 33% of gastroscopy for haematemesis/melaena patients were on APAC. Both of the patients operated for bleeding following surgery at another hospital were in the APAC group. In regards to impact on clinical management, 59% of APAC patients had their medications interrupted or ceased, on average by 3.5 days (range 1-13 days). 2 out of 75 operations were delayed due to APAC usage. There was no difference in the use of central venous or arterial line for increased monitoring (p=0.14) or in the use of warming blanket (Bair Hugger™) (p=0.94). Overall, transfusion rate was higher amongst APAC patients (14% vs 3%) (p 0.04). The recorded morbidity (n=2) and mortality (n=1) in this study were all in the APAC group. Discussion: Nineteen percent of emergency general surgical admissions and fifteen percent of operated patients were on APAC. The prevalence of APAC usage was higher in those aged sixty and above. General surgical patients who were admitted with a bleeding problem were more likely to be on APAC. Two patients who were operated for bleeding following surgery at another hospital were in the APAC group. Note that there was no patient in the non-APAC group who was admitted for post-operative bleeding. We observed two cases in which operation was delayed due to APAC usage. Transfusion, morbidity and mortality rate were higher in the APAC group. Conclusion: In this study, nineteen percent of emergency general surgical admissions were on APAC. The use of APAC is more prevalent in the older age group, particularly those aged sixty and above. Higher proportion of APAC compared to non-APAC patients were admitted and operated for bleeding problems. There is an urgent need for clinical guidelines regarding APAC management in emergency general surgical patients.

Keywords: antiplatelet, anticoagulants, emergency general surgery, rural general surgery, morbidity, mortality

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3744 Effect of Four Medicinal Plant Extracts on Chickpea Leaf Miner Liriomyza cicerina (Rondani)

Authors: Sabraoui Abdelhadi, El Bouhssini Mustapha, Lhaloui Saadia, El Fakhouri Karim, Bouchelta Aziz

Abstract:

The surveys carried out in 2014, 2015 in the regions of Abda- Doukala, Chaouia- Ouardigha, Zemour- Zair and Fes- Sais have confirmed that the leaf miner was the main insect pest attacking chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) in Morocco. The grain yield losses caused by this pest could be more than 20% for winter planting and more than 42% for spring-sown crop. To reduce the chickpea leaf miner infestations, four essential oils, as biopesticide alternatives, were tested for their insecticidal effect on L. ciccerina, adults and larvae under laboratory conditions. In addition, we assessed the efficacy of these essential oils with and without adjuvant against this pest in comparison to three insecticides under field conditions. Mentha pulegium, with a dose of 33 µl/l of air caused 100% mortality on adults and larvae, after three hours and six hours of exposure, respectively. Eucalyptus showed 100% mortality on adults and larvae, with doses of 33 and 83 µl/l, after six and three hours of exposure, respectively. In the field conditions M. pulegium and E. globulus with adjuvant showed promising results compared with Abamectin, Azadirachtin and Spinetoram respectively. Essential oils could be used as one of the IPM components for the control of chickpea leaf miner.

Keywords: Liriomyza cicerina, chickpea, essential oils, insecticidal activity, Morocco

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3743 Effect of Zidovudine on Hematological and Virologic Parameters among Female Sex Workers Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in North-Western Nigeria

Authors: N. M. Sani, E. D. Jatau, O. S. Olonitola, M. Y. Gwarzo, P. Moodley, N. S. Mujahid

Abstract:

Haemoglobin (HB) indicates anaemia level and by extension may reflect the nutritional level and perhaps the immunity of an individual. Some antiretroviral drugs like zidovudine are known to cause anaemia in People living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). A cross-sectional study using demographic data and blood specimen from 218 female commercial sex workers attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics was conducted between December 2009 and July 2011 to assess the effect of zidovudine on haematologic and RNA viral load of female sex workers receiving antiretroviral treatment in north-western Nigeria. Anaemia is a common and serious complication of both HIV infection and its treatment. In the setting of HIV infection, anaemia has been associated with decreased quality of life, functional status, and survival. Antiretroviral therapy, particularly the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), has been associated with a decrease in the incidence and severity of anaemia in HIV-infected patients who have received a HAART regimen for at least 1 year. In this study, result has shown that out of 218 patients, 26 with haemoglobin count between 5.1–10 g/dl were observed to have the highest viral load count of 300,000–350,000 copies/ml. It was also observed that most patients (190) with HB of 10.1–15.0 g/dl had viral load count of 200,000–250,000 copies/ml. An inverse relationship therefore exists, i.e. the lower the haemoglobin level, the higher the viral load count, even though the test statistics did not show any significance between the two (P=0.206). This shows that multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that anaemia was associated with a CD4+ cell count below 50/µL in female sex workers with a viral load above 100,000 copies/mL who use zidovudine. Severe anaemia was less prevalent in this study population than in historical comparators; however, mild to moderate anaemia rates remain high. The study, therefore, recommends that hematological and virologic parameters be monitored closely in patients receiving first line ART regimen.

Keywords: anaemia, female sex worker, haemoglobin, Zidovudine

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3742 Predicting Mortality among Acute Burn Patients Using BOBI Score vs. FLAMES Score

Authors: S. Moustafa El Shanawany, I. Labib Salem, F. Mohamed Magdy Badr El Dine, H. Tag El Deen Abd Allah

Abstract:

Thermal injuries remain a global health problem and a common issue encountered in forensic pathology. They are a devastating cause of morbidity and mortality in children and adults especially in developing countries, causing permanent disfigurement, scarring and grievous hurt. Burns have always been a matter of legal concern in cases of suicidal burns, self-inflicted burns for false accusation and homicidal attempts. Assessment of burn injuries as well as rating permanent disabilities and disfigurement following thermal injuries for the benefit of compensation claims represents a challenging problem. This necessitates the development of reliable scoring systems to yield an expected likelihood of permanent disability or fatal outcome following burn injuries. The study was designed to identify the risk factors of mortality in acute burn patients and to evaluate the applicability of FLAMES (Fatality by Longevity, APACHE II score, Measured Extent of burn, and Sex) and BOBI (Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury) model scores in predicting the outcome. The study was conducted on 100 adult patients with acute burn injuries admitted to the Burn Unit of Alexandria Main University Hospital, Egypt from October 2014 to October 2015. Victims were examined after obtaining informed consent and the data were collected in specially designed sheets including demographic data, burn details and any associated inhalation injury. Each burn patient was assessed using both BOBI and FLAMES scoring systems. The results of the study show the mean age of patients was 35.54±12.32 years. Males outnumbered females (55% and 45%, respectively). Most patients were accidently burnt (95%), whereas suicidal burns accounted for the remaining 5%. Flame burn was recorded in 82% of cases. As well, 8% of patients sustained more than 60% of total burn surface area (TBSA) burns, 19% of patients needed mechanical ventilation, and 19% of burnt patients died either from wound sepsis, multi-organ failure or pulmonary embolism. The mean length of hospital stay was 24.91±25.08 days. The mean BOBI score was 1.07±1.27 and that of the FLAMES score was -4.76±2.92. The FLAMES score demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.95 which was significantly higher than that of the BOBI score (0.883). A statistically significant association was revealed between both predictive models and the outcome. The study concluded that both scoring systems were beneficial in predicting mortality in acutely burnt patients. However, the FLAMES score could be applied with a higher level of accuracy.

Keywords: BOBI, burns, FLAMES, scoring systems, outcome

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3741 Technology Changing Senior Care

Authors: John Kosmeh

Abstract:

Introduction – For years, senior health care and skilled nursing facilities have been plagued with the dilemma of not having the necessary tools and equipment to adequately care for senior residents in their communities. This has led to high transport rates to emergency departments and high 30-day readmission rates, costing billions of unnecessary dollars each year, as well as quality assurance issues. Our Senior care telemedicine program is designed to solve this issue. Methods – We conducted a 1-year pilot program using our technology coupled with our 24/7 telemedicine program with skilled nursing facilities in different parts of the United States. We then compared transports rates and 30-day readmission rates to previous years before the use of our program, as well as transport rates of other communities of similar size not using our program. This data was able to give us a clear and concise look at the success rate of reducing unnecessary transport and readmissions as well as cost savings. Results – A 94% reduction nationally of unnecessary out-of-facility transports, and to date, complete elimination of 30-day readmissions. Our virtual platform allowed us to instruct facility staff on the utilization of our tools and system as well as deliver treatment by our ER-trained providers. Delay waiting for PCP callbacks was eliminated. We were able to obtain lung, heart, and abdominal ultrasound imaging, 12 lead EKG, blood labs, auscultate lung and heart sounds, and collect other diagnostic tests at the bedside within minutes, providing immediate care and allowing us to treat residents within the SNF. Are virtual capabilities allowed for loved ones, family members, and others who had medical power of attorney to virtually connect with us at the time of visit, to speak directly with the medical provider, providing increased confidence in the decision to treat the resident in-house. The decline in transports and readmissions will greatly reduce governmental cost burdens, as well as fines imposed on SNF for high 30-day readmissions, reduce the cost of Medicare A readmissions, and significantly impact the number of patients visiting overcrowded ERs. Discussion – By utilizing our program, SNF can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary transports of residents, as well as create significant savings from loss of day rates, transportation costs, and high CMS fines. The cost saving is in the thousands monthly, but more importantly, these facilities can create a higher quality of life and medical care for residents by providing definitive care instantly with ER-trained personnel.

Keywords: senior care, long term care, telemedicine, technology, senior care communities

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3740 Burden of Severe COVID-19 in Center of Iran: Results of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)

Authors: Moslem Taheri Soodejani, Mohammad Hassan Lotfi

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Introduction: The outbreak of Covid-19 disease is an international public health concern. Therefore, the analysis of information related to mortality and disability due to COVID-19 is considered important, so the present study was designed and conducted with the aim of assessing COVID-19 Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in Yazd. Methods: In Yazd province, all suspected cases of Covid-19 that would be referred to central hospitals in order to get confirmed through PCR or CT scan tests were recruited to our study. The fatality data of Covid- 19 was gathered from the forensic medicine organization. The Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) combines in one measure years of life lost (YLL), the loss of healthy life due to premature mortality and years of life lived with disability (YLD), the loss of healthy life because of disease and disability. Results: The total burden of COVID-19 was 23,472 years. The number of years lost due to premature death was 23385 and the number of years of life with disability due to COVID-19 was estimated to be 87 years. The disease burden was 12992 years for men and 10480 years for women. The overall incidence of COVID-19 was 1411 per 100,000, of which 1419 in men and 1402 in women per 100,000. Conclusion: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic affected a large population and the residents of Yazd Province lost many years of their lives due to this disease.

Keywords: DALY, covid- 19, Yazd, Iran

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3739 Return to Bowel Function after Right versus Extended Right Hemicolectomy: A Retrospective Review

Authors: Zak Maas, Daniel Carson, Rachel McIntyre, Mark Omundsen, Teresa Holm

Abstract:

Aim: After hemicolectomy a period of obligatory bowel dysfunction is expected, termed postoperative ileus (POI). Prolonged postoperative ileus (PPOI), typically four or more days, is associated with higher morbidity and extended inpatient stay. This leads to significant financial and resource-related burdens on healthcare systems. Several studies including a meta-analysis have compared rates of PPOI in left vs right hemicolectomy, which suggest that right-sided resections may be more likely to result in PPOI. Our study aims to further investigate whether significant differences in PPOI and obligatory POI exist between right versus extended right hemicolectomy. Methods: This is a retrospective review assessing rates of PPOI in patients who underwent right vs extended right hemicolectomy at Tauranga Hospital. Patients were divided and compared depending on approach (open versus laparoscopic) and acuity (acute versus elective). Exclusion criteria included synchronous major operations and patients preoperatively on parenteral nutrition. Primary outcome was PPOI as pre-defined in contemporary literature. Secondary outcomes were time to passage of flatus, passage of stool, toleration of oral diet and rate of complications. Results: There were 669 patients identified for analysis (507 laparoscopic vs 162 open; 194 acute vs 475 elective). Early analysis indicates rates of PPOI was significantly increased in patients undergoing extended right hemicolectomy. Factors including age, gender, ethnicity, preoperative haemaglobin, preoperative albumin and diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease were examined by multivariate analysis to determine correlation with PPOI. Conclusion: PPOI is a common complication of hemicolectomy surgery. Higher rates of PPOI in extended right vs right hemicolectomy warrants further research into determining the cause. This study examines some other factors which may contribute to PPOI.

Keywords: hemicolectomy, colorectal, complications, postoperative ileus

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3738 Improving Urban Mobility: Analyzing Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Traffic and Emissions

Authors: Saad Roustom, Hajo Ribberink

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In most cities in the world, traffic has increased strongly over the last decades, causing high levels of congestion and deteriorating inner-city air quality. This study analyzes the impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on traffic performance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different CAV penetration rates in mixed fleet environments of CAVs and driver-operated vehicles (DOVs) and under three different traffic demand levels. Utilizing meso-scale traffic simulations of the City of Ottawa, Canada, the research evaluates the traffic performance of three distinct CAV driving behaviors—Cautious, Normal, and Aggressive—at penetration rates of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, across three different traffic demand levels. The study employs advanced correlation models to estimate GHG emissions. The results reveal that Aggressive and Normal CAVs generally reduce traffic congestion and GHG emissions, with their benefits being more pronounced at higher penetration rates (50% to 100%) and elevated traffic demand levels. On the other hand, Cautious CAVs exhibit an increase in both traffic congestion and GHG emissions. However, results also show deteriorated traffic flow conditions when introducing 25% penetration rates of any type of CAVs. Aggressive CAVs outperform all other driving at improving traffic flow conditions and reducing GHG emissions. The findings of this study highlight the crucial role CAVs can play in enhancing urban traffic performance and mitigating the adverse impact of transportation on the environment. This research advocates for the adoption of effective CAV-related policies by regulatory bodies to optimize traffic flow and reduce GHG emissions. By providing insights into the impact of CAVs, this study aims to inform strategic decision-making and stimulate the development of sustainable urban mobility solutions.

Keywords: connected and automated vehicles, congestion, GHG emissions, mixed fleet environment, traffic performance, traffic simulations

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3737 Assessing the Impact of Antiretroviral Mediated Drug-Drug Interactions on Piperaquine Antimalarial Treatment in Pregnant Women Using Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modelling

Authors: Olusola Omolola Olafuyi, Michael Coleman, Raj Kumar Singh Badhan

Abstract:

Introduction: Malaria in pregnancy has morbidity and mortality implication on both mother and unborn child. Piperaquine (PQ) based antimalarial treatment is emerging as a choice antimalarial for pregnant women in the face of resistance to current antimalarial treatment recommendation in pregnancy. Physiological and biochemical changes in pregnant women may affect the pharmacokinetics of the antimalarial drug in these. In malaria endemic regions other infectious diseases like HIV/AIDs are prevalent. Pregnant women who are co-infected with malaria and HIV/AID are at even more greater risk of death not only due to complications of the diseases but also due to drug-drug interactions (DDIs) between antimalarials (AMT) and antiretroviral (ARVs). In this study, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling was used to investigate the effect of physiological and biochemical changes on the impact of ARV mediated DDIs in pregnant women in three countries. Method: A PBPK model for PQ was developed on SimCYP® using published physicochemical and pharmacokinetic data of PQ from literature, this was validated in three customized population groups from Thailand, Sudan and Papua New Guinea with clinical data. Validation of PQ model was also done in presence of interaction with efavirenz (pre-validated on SimCYP®). Different albumin levels and pregnancy stages was simulated in the presence of interaction with standard doses of efavirenz and ritonavir. PQ day 7 concentration of 30ng/ml was used as the efficacy endpoint for PQ treatment.. Results: The median day 7 concentration of PQ remained virtually consistent throughout pregnancy and were satisfactory across the three population groups ranging from 26-34.1ng/ml; this implied the efficacy of PQ throughout pregnancy. DDI interaction with ritonavir and efavirenz resulted in modest effect on the day 7 concentrations of PQ with AUCratio ranging from 0.56-0.8 and 1.64-1.79 for efavirenz and ritonavir respectively over 10-40 gestational weeks, however, a reduction in human serum albumin level reflective of severe malaria resulted in significantly reduced the number of subjects attaining the PQ day 7 concentration in the presence of both DDIs. The model demonstrated that the DDI between PQ and ARV in pregnant women with different malaria severities can alter the pharmacokinetic of PQ.

Keywords: antiretroviral, malaria, piperaquine, pregnancy, physiologically-based pharmacokinetics

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3736 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) Developed Clinical Pathway: Suggested Protocol

Authors: Maha Salah, Hanaa Hashem, Mahmoud M. Alsagheir, Mohammed Salah

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Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) represents a complex clinical syndrome and carries a high risk for mortality. The severity of the clinical course, the uncertainty of the outcome, and the reliance on the full spectrum of critical care resources for treatment mean that the entire health care team is challenged. Researchers and clinicians have investigated the nature of the pathological process and explored treatment options with the goal of improving outcome. Through this application of research to practice, we know that some previous strategies have been ineffective, and innovations in mechanical ventilation, sedation, nutrition, and pharmacological intervention remain important research initiatives. Developed Clinical pathway is multidisciplinary plans of best clinical practice for this specified groups of patients that aid in the coordination and delivery of high quality care. They are a documented sequence of clinical interventions that help a patient to move, progressively through a clinical experience to a desired outcome. Although there is a lot of heterogeneity in patients with ARDS, this suggested developed clinical pathway with alternatives was built depended on a lot of researches and evidence based medicine and nursing practices which may be helping these patients to improve outcomes, quality of life and decrease mortality.

Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), clinical pathway, clinical syndrome

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3735 Taylor’s Law and Relationship between Life Expectancy at Birth and Variance in Age at Death in Period Life Table

Authors: David A. Swanson, Lucky M. Tedrow

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Taylor’s Law is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates variances to means in sets of non-negative measurements via an approximate power function, which has found application to human mortality. This study adds to this research by showing that Taylor’s Law leads to a model that reasonably describes the relationship between life expectancy at birth (e0, which also is equal to mean age at death in a life table) and variance at age of death in seven World Bank regional life tables measured at two points in time, 1970 and 2000. Using as a benchmark a non-random sample of four Japanese female life tables covering the period from 1950 to 2004, the study finds that the simple linear model provides reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a life table from e0, where the latter range from 60.9 to 85.59 years. Employing 2017 life tables from the Human Mortality Database, the simple linear model is used to provide estimates of variance at age in death for six countries, three of which have high e0 values and three of which have lower e0 values. The paper provides a substantive interpretation of Taylor’s Law relative to e0 and concludes by arguing that reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a period life table can be calculated using this approach, which also can be used where e0 itself is estimated rather than generated through the construction of a life table, a useful feature of the model.

Keywords: empirical pattern, mean age at death in a life table, mean age of a stationary population, stationary population

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3734 A Developmental Study of the Flipped Classroom Approach on Students’ Learning in English Language Modules in British University in Egypt

Authors: A. T. Zaki

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The flipped classroom approach as a mode of blended learning was formally introduced to students of the English language modules at the British University in Egypt (BUE) at the start of the academic year 2015/2016. This paper aims to study the impact of the flipped classroom approach after three semesters of implementation. It will restrict itself to the examination of students’ achievement rates, student satisfaction, and how different student cohorts have benefited differently from the flipped practice. The paper concludes with recommendations of how the experience can be further developed.

Keywords: achievement rates, developmental experience, Egypt, flipped classroom, higher education, student cohorts, student satisfaction

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3733 Profit Share in Income: An Analysis of Its Influence on Macroeconomic Performance

Authors: Alain Villemeur

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The relationships between the profit share in income on the one hand and the growth rates of output and employment on the other hand have been studied for 17 advanced economies since 1961. The vast majority (98%) of annual values for the profit share fall between 20% and 40%, with an average value of 33.9%. For the 17 advanced economies, Gross Domestic Product and productivity growth rates tend to fall as the profit share in income rises. For the employment growth rates, the relationships are complex; nevertheless, over long periods (1961-2000), it appears that the more job-creating economies are Australia, Canada, and the United States; they have experienced a profit share close to 1/3. This raises a number of questions, not least the value of 1/3 for the profit share and its role in macroeconomic fundamentals. To explain these facts, an endogenous growth model is developed. This growth and distribution model reconciles the great ideas of Kaldor (economic growth as a chain reaction), of Keynes (effective demand and marginal efficiency of capital) and of Ricardo (importance of the wage-profit distribution) in an economy facing creative destruction. A production function is obtained, depending mainly on the growth of employment, the rate of net investment and the profit share in income. In theory, we show the existence of incentives: an incentive for job creation when the profit share is less than 1/3 and another incentive for job destruction in the opposite case. Thus, increasing the profit share can boost the employment growth rate until it reaches the value of 1/3; otherwise lowers the employment growth rate. Three key findings can be drawn from these considerations. The first reveals that the best GDP and productivity growth rates are obtained with a profit share of less than 1/3. The second is that maximum job growth is associated with a 1/3 profit share, given the existence of incentives to create more jobs when the profit share is less than 1/3 or to destroy more jobs otherwise. The third is the decline in performance (GDP growth rate and productivity growth rate) when the profit share increases. In conclusion, increasing the profit share in income weakens GDP growth or productivity growth as a long-term trend, contrary to the trickle-down hypothesis. The employment growth rate is maximum for a profit share in income of 1/3. All these lessons suggest macroeconomic policies considering the profit share in income.

Keywords: advanced countries, GDP growth, employment growth, profit share, economic policies

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3732 Effect of Pristine Graphene on Developmental Toxicity in Zebrafish (Danio rerio) Embryos: Cardiovascular Defects, Apoptosis, and Globin Expression Analysis

Authors: Manjunatha Bangeppagari, Lee Sang Joon

Abstract:

Recently, graphene-related nanomaterials are receiving fast-increasing attention with augmented applications in various fields. Especially, graphene-related materials have been widely applied to the biomedical field in the past years. In the present study, we evaluated the adverse effects of pristine graphene (pG) in zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos in various aspects, such as mortality rate, heart rate, hatching rate, cardiotoxicity, cardiovascular defect, cardiac looping, apoptosis, and globin expression. For various trace concentrations of pG (1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 μg/L), early life-stage parameters were observed at 24, 48, 72, and 96 hpf. As a result, pG induces significant developmental defects including yolk sac edema, pericardial edema, embryonic mortality, delayed hatching, heartbeat, several morphological defects, pericardial toxicity, and bradycardia. Moreover, the exposure to pG was found to be a potential risk factor to the cardiovascular system of zebrafish embryos. However, further study on their properties which vary according to production methods and surface functionalization is essentially required. In addition, the possible risks of pG flakes to aquatic animals, and public health should be evaluated before releasing them to the surrounding environment.

Keywords: apoptosis, cardiovascular toxicity, globin expression, pristine graphene, zebrafish embryos

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3731 Insecticidal Effect of a Botanical Plant Extracts (Ultra Act®) on Bactrocera oleae (Diptera:Tephritidae) Preimaginal Development and Pupa Survival

Authors: Imen Blibech, Mohieddine Ksantini, Manohar Shete

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Bactrocera oleae is one of the most economically damaging insects of olive in Tunisia and other producing countries of olive trees. As a reliable alternative to synthetic chemical insecticides, botanical insecticides are considered natural control methods safe for the environment and human health. The certified botanical insecticide ULTRA-ACT® effectively on large scale of insects is approved per Indian and International organic standards certified organic pesticides. Olives with signs of olive fly infestation were collected from productive olive trees in three Sahel localities of Tunisia. Infested fruits were separated daily for larval stage control purposes, into new rearing boxes under microclimatic conditions at 75% R.H, 25 ± 3°C and 8 L-16D. Treatment with ULTRA-ACT® extract solutions was made by dipping methods; each fruit was pipetted in 5 mL of extract for 10 seconds then air- dried. Five doses of ULTRA-ACT® were used for a bioassay, plus a water-only control. A total of 200 infested olive fruits were treated in separate dishes with a proportion of 10 olives per dish. A total of 20 dishes were used for each concentration treatment as well as 20 dished utilized as control. The bioassay was conducted with 3 replicates. The development of the larval and pupal stages was recorded since the egg hatching until emergence of adults. It was determined that ULTRA-ACT® extracts on succeeding concentrations; 0.25, 0.5, 1 and 2% show significant effect on the biology of the pest. Increased concentration decreased significantly adult emergence from pupae and affect the egg hatchability percentage. Therefore, larval mortality increased insignificantly with the increase of the product concentration. The 2nd instar larvae were more susceptible to the product and after 72 hours the maximum mortality (75%) was observed with ULTRA-ACT® 2%. The present work aimed to give a possible and efficient alternative solution for B. oleae biological control with a promising botanical insecticide.

Keywords: Bactrocera oleae, olive insect pest, Ultra Act®, larval mortality, pupal emergency, biological control

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3730 Numerical Study of Heat Release of the Symmetrically Arranged Extruded-Type Heat Sinks

Authors: Man Young Kim, Gyo Woo Lee

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In this numerical study, we want to present the design of highly efficient extruded-type heat sink. The symmetrically arranged extruded-type heat sinks are used instead of a single extruded or swaged-type heat sink. In this parametric study, the maximum temperatures, the base temperatures between heaters, and the heat release rates were investigated with respect to the arrangements of heat sources, air flow rates, and amounts of heat input. Based on the results we believe that the use of both side of heat sink is to be much better for release the heat than the use of single side. Also from the results, it is believed that the symmetric arrangement of heat sources is recommended to achieve a higher heat transfer from the heat sink.

Keywords: heat sink, forced convection, heat transfer, performance evaluation, symmetrical arrangement

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3729 Variations in Breast Aesthetic Reconstruction Rates between Asian and Caucasian Patients Post Mastectomy in a UK Tertiary Breast Referral Centre: A Five-Year Institutional Review

Authors: Wisam Ismail, Chole Wright, Elizabeth Baker, Cathy Tait, Mohamed Salhab, Richard Linforth

Abstract:

Background: Post-mastectomy breast reconstruction is an important treatment option for women with breast cancer with psychosocial, emotional and quality of life benefits. Despite this, Asian patients are one-fifth as likely as Caucasian patients to undergo reconstruction after mastectomy. Aim: This study aimed to assess the difference in breast reconstruction rates between Asian and Caucasian patients treated at Bradford Teaching Hospitals between May 2011 – December 2015.The long-term goal is to equip healthcare professionals to improve breast cancer treatment outcome by increasing breast reconstruction rates in this sub-population. Methods: All patients undergoing mastectomy were identified using a prospectively collected departmental database. Further data was obtained via retrospective electronic case note review. Bradford city population is about 530.000 by the end of 2015, with 67.44% of the city's population was White ethnic groups and 26.83% Asian Ethnic Groups (UK population consensus). The majority of Asian population speaks Urdu, hence an Urdu speaking breast care nurse was appointed to facilitate communications and deliver a better understanding of the reconstruction options and pathways. Statistical analysis was undertaken using the SAS program. Patients were stratified by age, self-reported ethnicity, axillary surgery and reconstruction. Relative odds were calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses with adjustment for known confounders. An Urdu speaking breast care nurse was employed throughout this period to facilitate communication and patient decision making. Results: 506 patients underwent Mastectomy over 5 years. 72 (14%) Asian v. 434 (85%) Caucasian. Overall median age is 64 years (SD1.1). Asian median age is 62 (SD0.9), versus Caucasian 65 (SD1.2). Total axillary clearance rate was 30% (42% Asian v.30% Caucasian). Overall reconstruction rate was 126 patients (28.9%).Only 6 of 72 Asian patients (<1%) underwent breast reconstruction versus 121of 434 Caucasian (28%) (p < 0.04), Odds ratio 0.68, (95% confidence interval 0.57-0.79). Conclusions: There is a significant difference in post-mastectomy reconstruction rates between Asian and Caucasian patients. This difference is likely to be multi-factorial. Higher rates of axillary clearance in Asian patients might suggest later disease presentation and/or higher rates of subsequent adjuvant therapy, both of which, can impact on the suitability of breast reconstruction. Strategies aimed at reducing racial disparities in breast reconstruction should include symptom awareness to enable earlier presentation and facilitated communication to ensure informed decision-making.

Keywords: aesthetic, Asian, breast, reconstruction

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3728 Low Pertussis Vaccine Coverage Rates among Polish Nurses

Authors: Aneta Nitsch-Osuch, Sylwia Dyk, Izabela Gołebiak

Abstract:

Background. Since 2014 the pertussis vaccine is recommended to Polish health care workers who have close contacts with infants. Although this recommendation is implemented into the National Immunization Programme, its realization has remained unknown. The Purpose: The aim of the study, conducted at the department of Social Medicine and Public Health (Medical University of Warsaw, Poland), was to describe a perception, knowledge and coverage rates regarding pertussis vaccination among nursing staff. According to the authors' knowledge, it was the first study related to this topic in our country. Material and Methods: A total number of 543 nurses who work at pediatric or neonatal wards was included into the study (501 women and 42 men), average age was 47 years. All nurses were asked to fulfill the anonymous survey, previously validated. Results: 1. Coverage rates: The analysis of results revealed that only 4% of responders reported they were vaccinated with Tdpa within past 10 years, while 8% declared they would plan the vaccine in the future. 35% of responders would consider the Tdpa vaccine whether there is some kind of the reimbursement. 2. Perception and knowledge of the disease and vaccination: The majority (82%) of nurses did not recognize pertussis as a re-emerging infectious disease. 54% of them believed that obligatory vaccinations in the childhood protect against the disease and the protection is a life-long one. Only 15% of nurses considered pertussis as a possible nosocomial infection. The current epidemiology of the disease was known to 6% of responders, while 24% of them were familiar with pertussis vaccination schedules for infants, children and adolescents, but only 9% of responders knew that adults older than 19 years are recommended to be vaccinated with Tdpa every 10 years. Many nurses (82%) would expect more educational activities related to pertussis and methods of its prophylaxis. Conclusions: The pertussis vaccine coverage rate among Polish nurses is extremely low. This is a result of not enough knowledge about the disease and its prevention. Educational activities addressed to health care workers and reimbursement of the pertussis vaccine are required to improve awareness and increase of vaccine coverage rates in the future.

Keywords: coverage, nurse, pertussis, vaccine

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3727 Changing Left Ventricular Hypertrophy After Kidney Transplantation

Authors: Zohreh Rostami, Arezoo Khosravi, Mohammad Nikpoor Aghdam, Mahmood Salesi

Abstract:

Background: Cardiovascular mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients have a strong relationship with baseline or progressive left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) meanwhile in hemodialysis patients 10% decrement in left ventricular mass was associated with 28% reduction in cardiovascular mortality risk. In consonance with these arguments, we designed a study to measure morphological and functional echocardiographic variations early after transplantation. Method: The patients with normal renal function underwent two advanced echocardiographic studies to examine the structural and functional changes in left ventricular mass before and 3-month after transplantation. Results: From a total of 23 participants 21(91.3%) presented with left ventricular hypertrophy, 60.9% in eccentric and 30.4% in concentric group. Diastolic dysfunction improved in concentric group after transplantation. Both in pre and post transplantation global longitudinal strain (GLS)- average in eccentric group was more than concentric (-17.45 ± 2.75 vs -14.3 ± 3.38 p=0.03) and (-18.08 ± 2.6 vs -16.1 ± 2.7 p= 0.04) respectively. Conclusion: Improvement and recovery of left ventricular function in concentric group was better and sooner than eccentric after kidney transplantation. Although fractional shortening and diastolic function and GLS-4C in pre-transplantation in concentric group was worse than eccentric, but therapeutic response to kidney transplantation in concentric was more and earlier than eccentric group.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, end stage renal disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, global longitudinal strain

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3726 Augmented Tourism: Definitions and Design Principles

Authors: Eric Hawkinson

Abstract:

After designing and implementing several iterations of implementations of augmented reality (AR) in tourism, this paper takes a deep look into design principles and implementation strategies of using AR at destination tourism settings. The study looks to define augmented tourism from past implementations as well as several cases, uses designed and implemented for tourism. The discussion leads to formation of frameworks and best practices for AR as well as virtual reality( VR) to be used in tourism settings. Some main affordances include guest autonomy, customized experiences, visitor data collection and increased electronic word-of-mouth generation for promotion purposes. Some challenges found include the need for high levels of technology infrastructure, low adoption rates or ‘buy-in’ rates, high levels of calibration and customization, and the need for maintenance and support services. Some suggestions are given as to how to leverage the affordances and meet the challenges of implementing AR for tourism.

Keywords: augmented tourism, augmented reality, eTourism, virtual tourism, tourism design

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3725 Radioprotective Efficacy of Costus afer against the Radiation-Induced Hematology and Histopathology Damage in Mice

Authors: Idowu R. Akomolafe, Naven Chetty

Abstract:

Background: The widespread medical application of ionizing radiation has raised public concern about radiation exposure and, thus, associated cancer risk. The production of reactive oxygen species and free radicals as a result of radiation exposure can cause severe damage to deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) of cells, thus leading to biological effect. Radiotherapy is an excellent modality in the treatment of cancerous cells, comes with a few challenges. A significant challenge is the exposure of healthy cells surrounding the tumour to radiation. The last few decades have witnessed lots of attention shifted to plants, herbs, and natural product as an alternative to synthetic compound for radioprotection. Thus, the study investigated the radioprotective efficacy of Costus afer against whole-body radiation-induced haematological, histopathological disorder in mice. Materials and Method: Fifty-four mice were randomly divided into nine groups. Animals were pretreated with the extract of Costus afer by oral gavage for six days before irradiation. Control: 6 mice received feed and water only; 6 mice received feed, water, and 3Gy; 6 mice received feed, water, and 6Gy; experimental: 6 mice received 250 mg/kg extract; 6 mice received 500 mg/kg extract; 6 mice received 250 mg/kg extract and 3Gy; 6 mice received 500 mg/kg extract and 3Gy; 6 mice received 250 mg/kg extract and 6Gy; 6 mice received 500 mg/kg extract and 6Gy in addition to feeding and water. The irradiation was done at the Radiotherapy and Oncology Department of Grey's Hospital using linear accelerator (LINAC). Thirty-six mice were sacrificed by cervical dislocation 48 hours after irradiation, and blood was collected for haematology tests. Also, the liver and kidney of the sacrificed mice were surgically removed for histopathology tests. The remaining eighteen (18) mice were used for mortality and survival studies. Data were analysed by one-way ANOVA, followed by Tukey's multiple comparison test. Results: Prior administration of Costus afer extract decreased the symptoms of radiation sickness and caused a significant delay in the mortality as demonstrated in the experimental mice. The first mortality was recorded on day-5 post irradiation, and this happened to the group E- that is, mice that received 6Gy but no extract. There was significant protection in the experimental mice, as demonstrated in the blood counts against hematopoietic and gastrointestinal damage when compared with the control. The protection was seen in the increase in blood counts of experimental animals and the number of survivor. The protection offered by Costus afer may be due to its ability to scavenge free radicals and restore gastrointestinal and bone marrow damage produced by radiation. Conclusions: The study has demonstrated that exposure of mice to radiation could cause modifications in the haematological and histopathological parameters of irradiated mice. However, the changes were relieved by the methanol extract of Costus afer, probably through its free radical scavenging and antioxidant properties.

Keywords: costus afer, hematological, mortality, radioprotection, radiotherapy

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3724 Production Increase of C-Central Wells Baher Essalm-Libya

Authors: Emed Krekshi, Walid Ben Husein

Abstract:

The Bahr Essalam gas-condensate field is located off the Libyan coast and is currently being produced by Mellitah Oil and Gas (MOG). Gas and condensate are produced from the Bahr Essalam reservoir through a mixture of platform and subsea wells, with the subsea wells being gathered at the western manifolds and delivered to the Sabratha platform via a 22-inch pipeline. Gas is gathered and dehydrated on the Sabratha platform and then delivered to the Mellitah gas plant via an existing 36-inch gas export pipeline. The condensate separated on the Sabratha platform will be delivered to the Mellitah gas plant via an existing 10-inch export pipeline. The Bahr Essalam Phase II project includes 2 production wells (CC16 & CC17) at C-Central A connected to the Sabratha platform via a new 10.9 km long 10”/14” production pipeline. Production rates from CC16 and CC17 have exceeded the maximum planned rate of 40 MMSCFD per well. A hydrothermal analysis was conducted to review and Verify input data, focusing on the variation of flowing well head as a function of flowrate.as well as Review available input data against the previous design input data to determine the extent of change. The steady-state and transient simulations performed with Olga yielded coherent results and confirmed the possibility of achieving flow rates of up to 60MMSCFD per well without exceeding the design temperatures, pressures, and velocities.

Keywords: Bahr Essalam, Mellitah Oil and Gas, production flow rates, steady and transient

Procedia PDF Downloads 42
3723 Understanding Chances and Challenges of Family Planning: Qualitative Study in Indonesia's Banyumas District

Authors: Utsamani Cintyamena, Sandra Frans Olivia, Shita Lisyadewi, Ariane Utomo

Abstract:

Family planning is one of fundamental aspects in preventing maternal morbidity and mortality. However, the prevalence rate of Indonesia’s married women in choosing contraception is low. This study purpose to assess opportunities and challenges in family planning. Methodology: We conducted a qualitative study in Banyumas District which has huge reduction of maternal mortality rate from 2013 to 2015. Four focus group discussions and four small group discussions were conducted to assess knowledge and attitude of women in using contraceptive and their method of choice, as well as in-depth interview to four health workers and two family planning field officers as triangulation. Thematic content analysis was done manually. Results: Key themes emerge across interviews including (1) first choice of contraception is the one that they previously had, provided that they did not encountered problems with it, (2) rumor and fear of side effect affected their method of choice, (3) selection of contraceptive method was influenced by approval of husband, believes, and role model in community. Conclusion: Collaboration of health worker, family planning field officers, community, as well as support from stakeholder, must be increased to socializing family planning.

Keywords: attitude, challenge, chance, family planning, knowledge

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3722 Bullying Rates Among Students with Special Needs in the United States

Authors: Kaycee Bills

Abstract:

Past studies have indicated students who have disabilities are at a higher risk of experiencing bullying victimization in comparison to other student groups. Extracurricular activity participation has been shown to establish better social outcomes for students. These positive social outcomes indirectly decrease the number of times a student is bullied. The following study uses the National Crime Victimization Survey – School Crime Supplement (NCVS/SCS) to analyze the bullying concurrences experienced among students, with disabilities being a focal variable. To explore the relationship between extracurricular involvement and bullying occurrence rates, this study employs a binary logistic regression to determine if athletic and non-athletic extracurricular activities have an impact on the number of times a student with disabilities experiences bullying. Implications for future social welfare practice and research are discussed.

Keywords: disability, bullying, extracurricular activities, athletics

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3721 Social Support in the Tradition for Pregnant Mother Care In East Nusa Tenggara

Authors: Sri Widati, Ira Nurmala

Abstract:

The Se’i Tradition was considered to contribute highly to the high maternal mortality rate in South Amanuban, East Nusa Tenggara. This tradition is still preserved due to the social support that has influenced the decision to carry out the Se’i to pregnant women and post-partum women. The purpose of this study is to analyze this social support towards the Se’i Tradition on pregnant women in East Nusa Tenggara. This research was an explorative study with in-depth interviews, observations, and focus group discussions (FGD) in collecting the data. This study showed that emotional support towards Se’i was commonly given by families, specifically by the mother-in laws. Instrumental support was shown by the husbands and the traditional midwives who helped delivered the babies. Informational support was found on the pregnant women and their mother-in laws. Appraisal support was given by all the neighbors and relatives of the pregnant women by telling how comfortable it was to go through this tradition which eventually affected those women to carry it out themselves. The Se’i Tradition is still carried out and mostly supported by the relatives of the pregnant women. The first recommendation of this study is to suggest people to only follow the suggestions from the local health staff to give birth in the local health centers and not to do the tradition anymore. The second recommendation is to urge the government to give support in the form of transportation facilities for pregnant women to reach the local health staff.

Keywords: the Se’i tradition, social support, pregnant women, maternal mortality, post-partum women

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3720 Mass Rearing and Effects of Gamma Irradiation on the Pupal Mortality and Reproduction of Citrus Leaf Miner Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae)

Authors: Shiva Osouli, Maryam Atapour, Mehrdad Ahmadi, Shima Shokri

Abstract:

Citrus leaf miner (Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton) is native to Asia and one of the most serious pests of Iran’s citrus nursery stocks. In the present study, the possibility of insect mass rearing on four various citrus hosts and the effects of gamma irradiation on the pupal mortality and reproduction of this pest were studied. Trifoliate orange and grapefruit showed less infection, while the number of pupae in Valencia oranges and sweet lemons cages was so high. There was not any significant difference between weight of male and female pupae among different citrus hosts, but generally the weight of male pupae was less than females. Use of Valencia orange or sweet lemons seedlings in especial dark emergence and oviposition cages could be recommended for mass rearing of this pest. In this study, the effects of gamma radiation at doses 100 to 450 Gy on biological and reproductive parameters of the pest has been determined. The results show that mean percent of pupal mortality increased with increasing doses and reached to 28.67% at 450 Gy for male pupae and 38.367% for female pupae. Also, the mean values of this parameter were higher for irradiated female, which indicated the higher sensitivity of this sex. The gamma ray irradiation from 200 and 300 Gy caused decrease in male and female adult moth longevity, respectively. The eggs were laid by emerged females, and their hatchability was decreased by increasing gamma doses. The fecundity of females in both combinations of crosses (irradiated male × normal female and irradiated female × normal male) did not differ, but fertility of laid eggs by irradiated female × normal male affected seriously and the mean values of this parameter reached to zero at 300 Gy. The hatchability percentage of produced eggs by normal female × irradiated male at 300 Gy was 23.29% and reached to less than 2 % at 450 Gy as the highest tested dose. The results of this test show that females have more radio-sensitivity in comparison to males.

Keywords: citrus leaf miner, Phyllocnistis citrella, citrus hosts, mass rearing, Sterile Insect Technique (SIT)

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
3719 Long-Term Exposure Assessments for Cooking Workers Exposed to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Aldehydes Containing in Cooking Fumes

Authors: Chun-Yu Chen, Kua-Rong Wu, Yu-Cheng Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

Abstract:

Cooking fumes are known containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and aldehydes, and some of them have been proven carcinogenic or possibly carcinogenic to humans. Considering their chronic health effects, long-term exposure data is required for assessing cooking workers’ lifetime health risks. Previous exposure assessment studies, due to both time and cost constraints, mostly were based on the cross-sectional data. Therefore, establishing a long-term exposure data has become an important issue for conducting health risk assessment for cooking workers. An approach was proposed in this study. Here, the generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes from a cooking process were determined by placing a sampling train exactly under the under the exhaust fan under the both the total enclosure condition and normal operating condition, respectively. Subtracting the concentration collected by the former (representing the total emitted concentration) from that of the latter (representing the hood collected concentration), the fugitive emitted concentration was determined. The above data was further converted to determine the generation rates based on the flow rates specified for the exhaust fan. The determinations of the above generation rates were conducted in a testing chamber with a selected cooking process (deep-frying chicken nuggets under 3 L peanut oil at 200°C). The sampling train installed under the exhaust fan consisted respectively an IOM inhalable sampler with a glass fiber filter for collecting particle-phase PAHs, followed by a XAD-2 tube for gas-phase PAHs. The above was also used to sample aldehydes, however, installed with a filter pre-coated with DNPH, and followed by a 2,4-DNPH-cartridge for collecting particle-phase and gas-phase aldehydes, respectively. PAHs and aldehydes samples were analyzed by GC/MS-MS (Agilent 7890B), and HPLC-UV (HITACHI L-7100), respectively. The obtained generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes were applied to the near-field/ far-field exposure model to estimate the exposures of cooks (the estimated near-field concentration), and helpers (the estimated far-field concentration). For validating purposes, both PAHs and aldehydes samplings were conducted simultaneously using the same sampling train at both near-field and far-field sites of the testing chamber. The sampling results, together with the use of the mixed-effect model, were used to calibrate the estimated near-field/ far-field exposures. In the present study, the obtained emission rates were further converted to emission factor of both PAHs and aldehydes according to the amount of food oil consumed. Applying the long-term food oil consumption records, the emission rates for both PAHs and aldehydes were determined, and the long-term exposure databanks for cooks (the estimated near-field concentration), and helpers (the estimated far-field concentration) were then determined. Results show that the proposed approach was adequate to determine the generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes under various fan exhaust flow rate conditions. The estimated near-field/ far-field exposures, though were significantly different from that obtained from the field, can be calibrated using the mixed effect model. Finally, the established long-term data bank could provide a useful basis for conducting long-term exposure assessments for cooking workers exposed to PAHs and aldehydes.

Keywords: aldehydes, cooking oil fumes, long-term exposure assessment, modeling, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)

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3718 Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 323
3717 Prevalence of Obesity and Associated Risk Factors in South African Employees

Authors: Jeanne Grace, Shereen Currie

Abstract:

Background: Obesity associated comorbidities increase the risk of morbidity and mortality among employees in the workplace. Objectives: The study aimed to determine the prevalence of obesity and comorbidities like diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia associated with obesity within the workplace in South Africa. Methods: A total of 17359 male (n = 8561) and female (n = 8798) employees, aged between 18-64 years (40.8 ± 11.0), from various corporate and industrial companies in South Africa participated in the study. Subjects were assigned to one of five body mass index (BMI) categories, according to their BMI: normal weight, BMI of 18.5‒24.9 kg/m² (n = 7338); overweight, BMI of 25.0‒29.9 kg/m² (n = 6323); obese class I, BMI of 30.0-34.9 kg/m² (n = 2552); obese class II, BMI of 35.0-39.9 kg/m² (n = 782); and obese class III, BMI of ≥ 40 kg/m² (n = 364). Height, weight, blood pressure, random blood glucose, and total cholesterol were measured. Results: The prevalence of normal weight men was 29.2% and women 55.0%; overweight men 46.4% and women 26.7%, obese men 24.4% and women 18.3%. A significant association (p<0.01) of BMI with diabetes, systolic and diastolic hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia were noted. Conclusion: Obesity is strongly associated with adverse comorbidities that may impact employees’ quality of life and performance. If unaddressed, it can increase comorbidities, not only affecting the bottom line of companies but causing morbidity and mortality, including sudden death.

Keywords: body mass index, cholesterol, blood glucose, workplace

Procedia PDF Downloads 170