Search results for: stationary population

Authors: María L. Jalón, Feargal Brennan

Abstract:

A non-stationary stochastic optimization methodology is applied to an OWC (oscillating water column) to find the design that maximizes the wave energy extraction. Different temporal cycles are considered to represent the long-term variability of the wave climate at the site in the optimization problem. The results of the non-stationary stochastic optimization problem are compared against those obtained by a stationary stochastic optimization problem. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed non-stationary optimization provides designs with a better fit to reality. However, the stationarity assumption can be adequate when looking at averaged system response.

Keywords: non-stationary stochastic optimization, oscillating water, temporal variability, wave energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Kai Chen, Shuguang Cui, Feng Yin

Abstract:

Gaussian process (GP) with spectral mixture (SM) kernel demonstrates flexible non-parametric Bayesian learning ability in modeling unknown function. In this work a novel time-varying and non-stationary convolution spectral mixture (TN-CSM) kernel with a significant enhancing of interpretability by using process convolution is introduced. A way decomposing the SM component into an auto-convolution of base SM component and parameterizing it to be input dependent is outlined. Smoothly, performing a convolution between two base SM component yields a novel structure of non-stationary SM component with much better generalized expression and interpretation. The TN-CSM perfectly allows compatibility with the stationary SM kernel in terms of kernel form and spectral base ignored and confused by previous non-stationary kernels. On synthetic and real-world datatsets, experiments show the time-varying characteristics of hyper-parameters in TN-CSM and compare the learning performance of TN-CSM with popular and representative non-stationary GP.

Keywords: Gaussian process, spectral mixture, non-stationary, convolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: M. Yoneda

Abstract:

It is known that stationary human occupants act as dynamic mass-spring-damper systems and can change the modal properties of civil engineering structures. This paper describes the full scale measurement to explain the tuned mass damper effects of stationary people on structural damping of footbridge with center span length of 33 m. A human body can be represented by a lumped system consisting of masses, springs, and dashpots. Complex eigenvalue calculation is also conducted by using ISO5982:1981 human model (two degree of freedom system). Based on experimental and analytical results for the footbridge with the stationary people in the standing position, it is demonstrated that stationary people behave as a tuned mass damper and that ISO5982:1981 human model can explain the structural damping characteristics measured in the field.

Keywords: dynamic interaction, footbridge, stationary people, structural damping

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Yasser Aldali

Abstract:

The scope of this paper is to evaluate and compare the potential of LS-PV (Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant) power generation systems in the southern region of Libya at Al-Kufra for both stationary and tracking systems. A Microsoft Excel-VBA program has been developed to compute slope radiation, dew-point, sky temperature, and then cell temperature, maximum power output and module efficiency of the system for stationary system and for tracking system. The results for energy production show that the total energy output is 114GWh/year for stationary system and 148 GWh/year for tracking system. The average module efficiency for the stationary system is 16.6% and 16.2% for the tracking system. The values of electricity generation capacity factor (CF) and solar capacity factor (SCF) for stationary system were found to be 26% and 62.5% respectively and 34% and 82% for tracking system. The GCR (Ground Cover Ratio) for a stationary system is 0.7, which corresponds to a tilt angle of 24°. The GCR for tracking system was found to be 0.12. The estimated ground area needed to build a 50MW PV plant amounts to approx. 0.55 km2 for a stationary PV field constituted by HIT PV arrays and approx. 91 MW/km2. In case of a tracker PV field, the required ground area amounts approx. 2.4k m2 and approx. 20.5 MW/km2.

Keywords: large scale photovoltaic power plant, two-axis tracking system, stationary system, landscape impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Imran Badshah

Abstract:

This paper study the impact of Un-signalized pedestrian on traffic flow at Stationary Bottleneck. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) analyze the methodology of level of service for Urban street segment but it does not include the impact of un-signalized pedestrian crossing at stationary bottleneck. The un-signalized pedestrian crossing in urban road segment causes conflict between vehicles and pedestrians. As a result, the average time taken by vehicle to travel along a road segment increased. The speed of vehicle and the level of service decreases as the running time of a segment increased. To analyze the delay, we need to determine the pedestrian speed while crossing the road at a stationary bottleneck. The objective of this research is to determine the speed of pedestrian and its impact on traffic flow at stationary bottleneck. In addition, the result of this study should be incorporated in the Urban Street Analysis Chapter of HCM.

Keywords: stationary bottleneck, traffic flow, pedestrian speed, HCM

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Muhammad Younis

Abstract:

A ternary 4-point approximating non-stationary subdivision scheme has been introduced that generates the family of $C^2$ limiting curves. The theory of asymptotic equivalence is being used to analyze the convergence and smoothness of the scheme. The comparison of the proposed scheme has been demonstrated using different examples with the existing 4-point ternary approximating schemes, which shows that the limit curves of the proposed scheme behave more pleasantly and can generate conic sections as well.

Keywords: ternary, non-stationary, approximation subdivision scheme, convergence and smoothness

Procedia PDF Downloads 440

Authors: Andrew Clark

Abstract:

McCauley, Bassler, and Gunaratne show that integration I(d) processes as used in economics and finance do not necessarily produce stationary increments, which are required to determine causality in both the short term and the long term. This paper follows their lead and shows I(d) aluminum cash and futures log prices at daily and weekly intervals do not have stationary increments, which means prior causality studies using I(d) processes need to be re-examined. Wavelets based on undifferenced cash and futures log prices do have stationary increments and are used along with transfer entropy (versus cointegration) to measure causality. Wavelets exhibit causality at most daily time scales out to 1 year, and weekly time scales out to 1 year and more. To determine stationarity, localized stationary wavelets are used. LSWs have the benefit, versus other means of testing for stationarity, of using multiple hypothesis tests to determine stationarity. As informational flows exist between cash and futures at daily and weekly intervals, the aluminum market is efficient. Therefore, hedges used by producers and consumers of aluminum need not have a big concern in terms of the underestimation of hedge ratios. Questions about arbitrage given efficiency are addressed in the paper.

Keywords: transfer entropy, nonstationary increments, wavelets, localized stationary wavelets, localized stationary wavelets

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: J. D. Martínez-Vargas, C. Castro-Hoyos, G. Castellanos-Dominguez

Abstract:

In this work, we propose a novel approach for measuring the stationarity level of a multichannel time-series. This measure is based on a stationarity definition over time-varying spectrum, and it is aimed to quantify the relation between local stationarity (single-channel) and global dynamic behavior (multichannel dynamics). To assess the proposed approach validity, we use a well known EEG-BCI database, that was constructed for separate between motor/imagery tasks. Thus, based on the statement that imagination of movements implies an increase on the EEG dynamics, we use as discriminant features the proposed measure computed over an estimation of the non-stationary components of input time-series. As measure of separability we use a t-student test, and the obtained results evidence that such measure is able to accurately detect the brain areas projected on the scalp where motor tasks are realized.

Keywords: stationary measure, entropy, sub-space projection, multichannel dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Meng Wu

Abstract:

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) landing technology is a common task that is required to be fulfilled by fly robots. In this paper, the crazyflie2.0 is located by ultra-wideband (UWB) localization system that contains 4 UWB anchors. Another UWB anchor is introduced and installed on a stationary platform. One cost function is designed to find the minimum distance between crazyflie2.0 and the anchor installed on the stationary platform. The coordinates of the anchor are unknown in advance, and the goal of the cost function is to define the location of the anchor, which can be considered as an optimal landing point. When the cost function reaches the minimum value, the corresponding coordinates of the UWB anchor fixed on the stationary platform can be calculated and defined as the landing point. The simulation shows the effectiveness of the method in this paper.

Keywords: UAV landing, UWB localization system, UWB anchor, cost function, stationary platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 21

Authors: Ekaterina M. Myasnikova, Andrey A. Makashov, Alexander V. Spirov

Abstract:

First manifestation of a segmentation pattern in the early Drosophila development is the formation of expression domains (along with the main embryo axis) of genes belonging to the trunk gene class. Highly variable expression of genes from gap family in early Drosophila embryo is strongly reduced by the start of gastrulation due to the gene cross-regulation. The dynamics of gene expression is described by a gene circuit model for a system of four gap genes. It is shown that for the formation of a steep and stationary border by the model it is necessary that there existed a nucleus (modeling point) in which the gene expression level is constant in time and hence is described by a stationary equation. All the rest genes expressed in this nucleus are in a dynamic equilibrium. The mechanism of border formation associated with the existence of a stationary nucleus is also confirmed by the experiment. An important advantage of this approach is that properties of the system in a stationary nucleus are described by algebraic equations and can be easily handled analytically. Thus we explicitly characterize the cross-regulation properties necessary for the robustness and formulate the conditions providing this effect through the properties of the initial input data. It is shown that our formally derived conditions are satisfied for the previously published model solutions.

Keywords: drosophila, gap genes, reaction-diffusion model, robustness

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

Abstract:

In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC). By considering two sets of data (raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data, while in the simulated data the return values show an increasing trend with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend with an upper bound. This clearly shows that although temperatures in the tropics show a sign of increase in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedance. The results of this paper are very vital in agricultural and environmental research.

Keywords: forecasting, generalized extreme value (GEV), meteorology, return level

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: Vinci Mojamdar, Govind S. Gupta

Abstract:

Moving beds in the presence of gas flow are widely used in metallurgical and chemical industries like blast furnaces, catalyst reforming, drying, etc. Pressure drop studies in co- and counter – current conditions have been done by a few researchers. However, to the best of authours knowledge, proper pressure drop study with lateral gas injection lacks especially in the presence of cavity and nozzle protrusion inside the packed bed. The latter study is more useful for metallurgical industries for the processes such as blast furnaces, shaft reduction and, COREX. In this experimental work, a two dimensional cold model with slot type nozzle for lateral gas injection along with the plastic beads as packing material and dry air as gas have been used. The variation of pressure drop is recorded at various horizontal and vertical directions in the presence of cavity and nozzle protrusion. The study has been performed in both moving and stationary beds. Also, the experiments have been carried out in both increasing as well as decreasing gas flow conditions. Experiments have been performed at various gas flow rates and packed bed heights. Some interesting results have been reported such as there is no pressure variation in the moving bed for both the increasing and decreasing gas flow condition that is different from the stationary bed. Pressure hysteresis loop has been observed in a stationary bed.

Keywords: lateral gas injection, moving bed, pressure drop, pressure hysteresis, stationary bed

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Anand Prakash Dwivedi, Sounak Kumar Choudhury

Abstract:

Electric Discharge Machining (EDM) is a well-established and one of the most primitive unconventional manufacturing processes, that is used world-wide for the machining of geometrically complex or hard and electrically conductive materials which are extremely difficult to cut by any other conventional machining process. One of the major flaws, over all its advantages, is its very slow Material Removal Rate (MRR). In order to eradicate this slow machining rate, various researchers have proposed various methods like; providing rotational motion to the tool or work-piece or to both, mixing of conducting additives (such as SiC, Cr, Al, graphite etc) powders in the dielectric, providing vibrations to the tool or work-piece or to both etc. Present work is a comparative study of Rotational and Stationary Tool EDM, which deals with providing rotational motion to the copper tool for the machining of AISI D3 Tool Steel and the results have been compared with stationary tool EDM. It has been found that the tool rotation substantially increases the MRR up to 28%. The average surface finish increases around 9-10% by using the rotational tool EDM. The average tool wear increment is observed to be around 19% due to the tool rotation. Apart from this, the present work also focusses on the recast layer analysis, which are being re-deposited on the work-piece surface during the operation. The recast layer thickness is less in case of Rotational EDM and more for Stationary Tool EDM. Moreover, the cracking on the re-casted surface is also more for stationary tool EDM as compared with the rotational EDM.

Keywords: EDM, MRR, Ra, TWR

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: David A. Swanson, Lucky M. Tedrow

Abstract:

Taylor’s Law is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates variances to means in sets of non-negative measurements via an approximate power function, which has found application to human mortality. This study adds to this research by showing that Taylor’s Law leads to a model that reasonably describes the relationship between life expectancy at birth (e0, which also is equal to mean age at death in a life table) and variance at age of death in seven World Bank regional life tables measured at two points in time, 1970 and 2000. Using as a benchmark a non-random sample of four Japanese female life tables covering the period from 1950 to 2004, the study finds that the simple linear model provides reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a life table from e0, where the latter range from 60.9 to 85.59 years. Employing 2017 life tables from the Human Mortality Database, the simple linear model is used to provide estimates of variance at age in death for six countries, three of which have high e0 values and three of which have lower e0 values. The paper provides a substantive interpretation of Taylor’s Law relative to e0 and concludes by arguing that reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a period life table can be calculated using this approach, which also can be used where e0 itself is estimated rather than generated through the construction of a life table, a useful feature of the model.

Keywords: empirical pattern, mean age at death in a life table, mean age of a stationary population, stationary population

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Katsumi Hirata

Abstract:

To develop the useful acoustic environmental recognition system, the method of estimating 3D-position of a stationary random acoustic source using bispectral analysis of 4-point detected signals is proposed. The method uses information about amplitude attenuation and propagation delay extracted from amplitude ratios and angles of auto- and cross-bispectra of the detected signals. It is expected that using bispectral analysis affects less influence of Gaussian noises than using conventional power spectral one. In this paper, the basic principle of the method is mentioned first, and its validity and features are considered from results of the fundamental experiments assumed ideal circumstances.

Keywords: 4-point detection, a stationary random acoustic source, auto- and cross-bispectra, estimation of 3D-position

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Xingxing Peng

Abstract:

With the development of society, there are more and more online communication scenarios such as teleconference and online education. In the process of conference communication, the quality of voice communication is a very important part, and noise may cause the communication effect of participants to be greatly reduced. Therefore, voice noise reduction has an important impact on scenarios such as voice calls. This research focuses on the key technologies of the sound transmission process. The purpose is to maintain the audio quality to the maximum so that the listener can hear clearer and smoother sound. Firstly, to solve the problem that the traditional speech enhancement algorithm is not ideal when dealing with non-stationary noise, an adaptive speech noise reduction algorithm is studied in this paper. Traditional noise estimation methods are mainly used to deal with stationary noise. In this chapter, we study the spectral characteristics of different noise types, especially the characteristics of non-stationary Burst noise, and design a noise estimator module to deal with non-stationary noise. Noise features are extracted from non-speech segments, and the noise estimation module is adjusted in real time according to different noise characteristics. This adaptive algorithm can enhance speech according to different noise characteristics, improve the performance of traditional algorithms to deal with non-stationary noise, so as to achieve better enhancement effect. The experimental results show that the algorithm proposed in this chapter is effective and can better adapt to different types of noise, so as to obtain better speech enhancement effect.

Keywords: speech noise reduction, speech enhancement, self-adaptation, Wiener filter algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 15

Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Athanasios A. Tountas, Geoffrey A. Ozin, Mohini M. Sain

Abstract:

Renewable hydrogen (H₂) carriers such as methanol (MeOH), dimethyl ether (DME), oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OMEs), and conceivably ammonia (NH₃) can be reformed back into H₂ and are fundamental chemical conversions for the long-term viability of the H₂ economy due to their higher densities and ease of transportability compared to H₂. MeOH is an especially important carrier as it is a simple C1 chemical that can be produced from green solar-PV-generated H₂ and direct-air-captured CO₂ with a current commercially practical solar-to-fuel efficiency of 10% from renewable solar energy. MeOH steam reforming (MSR) in stationary systems next to H₂ fuel-cell filling stations can eliminate the need for onboard mobile reformers, and the former systems can be more robust in terms of attaining strict H₂ product specifications, and MeOH is a safe, lossless, and compact medium for long-term H₂ storage. Both thermal- and photo-catalysts are viable options for achieving the stable, long-term performance of stationary MSR systems.

Keywords: fuel-cell vehicle filling stations, methanol steam reforming, hydrogen transport and storage, stationary reformer, liquid hydrogen carriers

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Rosa Christodoulaki, Irene Koronaki, Panagiotis Tsekouras

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to analyze the energy performance of a spherical Stationary Reflector / Tracking Absorber (SRTA) solar concentrator. This type of collector consists of a segment of a spherical mirror placed in a stationary position facing the sun and a cylindrical absorber that tracks the sun by a simple pivoting motion about the center of curvature of the reflector. The energy analysis is performed through the development of a dynamic simulation model in TRNSYS software that calculates the annual heat production and the efficiency of the SRTA solar concentrator. The effect of solar concentrator design features and characteristics, such the reflector material, the reflector diameter, the receiver type, the solar radiation level and the concentration ratio, are discussed in details. Moreover, the energy performance curve of the SRTA solar concentrator, for various temperature differences between the mean fluid temperature and the ambient temperature and radiation intensities is drawn. The results are shown in diagrams, visualizing the effect of solar, optical and thermal parameters to the overall performance of the SRTA solar concentrator throughout the year. The analysis indicates that the SRTA solar concentrator can operate efficiently under a wide range of operating conditions.

Keywords: concentrating solar collector, energy analysis , stationary reflector, tracking absorber

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Bülent Kantar, Numan Ünaldı

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method which includes robust and invisible digital watermarking on images that is colored. Colored images are used as watermark. Frequency region is used for digital watermarking. Discrete wavelet transform and discrete stationary wavelet transform are used for frequency region transformation. Low, medium and high frequency coefficients are obtained by applying the two-level discrete wavelet transform to the original image. Low frequency coefficients are obtained by applying one level discrete stationary wavelet transform separately to all frequency coefficient of the two-level discrete wavelet transformation of the original image. For every low frequency coefficient obtained from one level discrete stationary wavelet transformation, watermarks are added. Watermarks are added to all frequency coefficients of two-level discrete wavelet transform. Totally, four watermarks are added to original image. In order to get back the watermark, the original and watermarked images are applied with two-level discrete wavelet transform and one level discrete stationary wavelet transform. The watermark is obtained from difference of the discrete stationary wavelet transform of the low frequency coefficients. A total of four watermarks are obtained from all frequency of two-level discrete wavelet transform. Obtained watermark results are compared with real watermark results, and a similarity result is obtained. A watermark is obtained from the highest similarity values. Proposed methods of watermarking are tested against attacks of the geometric and image processing. The results show that proposed watermarking method is robust and invisible. All features of frequencies of two level discrete wavelet transform watermarking are combined to get back the watermark from the watermarked image. Watermarks have been added to the image by converting the binary image. These operations provide us with better results in getting back the watermark from watermarked image by attacking of the geometric and image processing.

Keywords: watermarking, DWT, DSWT, copy right protection, RGB

Procedia PDF Downloads 500

Authors: Wiem Zemzem, Moncef Tagina

Abstract:

In this work, we are addressing the problem of an autonomous mobile robot navigating in a large, unknown and dynamic environment using reinforcement learning abilities. This problem is principally related to the exploration/exploitation dilemma, especially the need to find a solution letting the robot detect the environmental change and also learn in order to adapt to the new environmental form without ignoring knowledge already acquired. Firstly, a new action selection strategy, called ε-greedy-MPA (the ε-greedy policy favoring the most promising actions) is proposed. Unlike existing exploration/exploitation policies (EEPs) such as ε-greedy and Boltzmann, the new EEP doesn’t only rely on the information of the actual state but also uses those of the eventual next states. Secondly, as the environment is large, an exploration favoring least recently visited states is added to the proposed EEP in order to accelerate learning. Finally, various simulations with ball-catching problem have been conducted to evaluate the ε-greedy-MPA policy. The results of simulated experiments show that combining this policy with the Qlearning method is more effective and efficient compared with the ε-greedy policy in stationary environments and the utility-based reinforcement learning approach in non stationary environments.

Keywords: autonomous mobile robot, exploration/ exploitation policy, large, dynamic environment, reinforcement learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Alfred Quarcoo

Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data techniques. An annual data on energy consumption and Economic Growth (proxied by real gross domestic product per capita) spanning from 1990 to 2016 from the World bank index database was used. The results of the Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test shows that the series for all countries are not stationary at levels. However, the log of economic growth in Benin and Congo become stationary after taking the differences of the data, and log of energy consumption become stationary for all countries and Log of economic growth in Kenya and Zimbabwe were found to be stationary after taking the second differences of the panel series. The findings of the Johansen cointegration test demonstrate that the variables Log of Energy Consumption and Log of economic growth are not co-integrated for the cases of Kenya and Zimbabwe, so no long-run relationship between the variables were established in any country. The Granger causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy use to economic growth in Kenya and no causal linkage between Energy consumption and economic growth in Benin, Congo and Zimbabwe.

Keywords: Cointegration, Granger Causality, Sub-Sahara Africa, World Bank Development Indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 9

Authors: Svetlana Nikitenkova, Dmitry Kovriguine

Abstract:

Stationary energy partition between waves in a one dimensional carbyne chain at ambient temperatures is investigated. The study is carried out by standard asymptotic methods of nonlinear dynamics in the framework of classical mechanics, based on a simple mathematical model, taking into account central and noncentral interactions between carbon atoms. Within the first-order nonlinear approximation analysis, triple-mode resonant ensembles of quasi-harmonic waves are revealed. Any resonant triad consists of a single primary high-frequency longitudinal mode and a pair of secondary low-frequency transverse modes of oscillations. In general, the motion of the carbyne chain is described by a superposition of resonant triads of various spectral scales. It is found that the stationary energy distribution is obeyed to the classical Rayleigh–Jeans law, at the expense of the proportional amplitude dispersion, except a shift in the frequency band, upwards the spectrum.

Keywords: resonant triplet, Rayleigh–Jeans law, amplitude dispersion, carbyne

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: Yiyuan Tao

Abstract:

Under the impact of global warming together with the intensification of human activities, the hydrological regimes may be altered, and the traditional stationary assumption was no longer satisfied. However, most of the current design standards of water infrastructures were still based on the hypothesis of stationarity, which may inevitably result in severe biases. Many critical impacts of climate on ecosystems, society, and the economy are controlled by extreme events rather than mean values. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the non-stationarity of precipitation extremes and model the precipitation extremes in a nonstationary framework. The Wei River Basin (WRB), located in a continental monsoon climate zone in China, is selected as a case study in this study. Six extreme precipitation indices were employed to investigate the changing patterns and stationarity of precipitation extremes in the WRB. To identify if precipitation extremes are stationary, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test, which is used to examine the occurrence of abrupt changes are adopted in this study. Extreme precipitation indices series are fitted with non-stationary distributions that selected from six widely used distribution functions: Gumbel, lognormal, Weibull, gamma, generalized gamma and exponential distributions by means of the time-varying moments model generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), where the distribution parameters are defined as a function of time. The results indicate that: (1) the trends were not significant for the whole WRB, but significant positive/negative trends were still observed in some stations, abrupt changes for consecutive wet days (CWD) mainly occurred in 1985, and the assumption of stationarity is invalid for some stations; (2) for these nonstationary extreme precipitation indices series with significant positive/negative trends, the GAMLSS models are able to capture well the temporal variations of the indices, and perform better than the stationary model. Finally, the differences between the quantiles of nonstationary and stationary models are analyzed, which highlight the importance of nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes in the WRB.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, GAMLSSS, non-stationary, Wei River Basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Abubakar Sadiq Mensah

Abstract:

The Knowledge of the population growth of a nation is paramount to national planning. The population of a place is studied and a model developed over a period of time, Matrices is used to form model for population growth. The eigenvalue ƛ of the matrix A and its corresponding eigenvector X is such that AX = ƛX is calculated. The stable age distribution of the population is obtained using the eigenvalue and the characteristic polynomial. Hence, estimation could be made using eigenvalues and eigenvectors.

Keywords: eigenvalues, eigenvectors, population, growth/stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: Jia-Jang Wu

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to develop a general technique so that one may predict the dynamic behaviour of a three-dimensional scale crane model subjected to time-dependent moving point forces by means of conventional finite element computer packages. To this end, the whole scale crane model is divided into two parts: the stationary framework and the moving substructure. In such a case, the dynamic responses of a scale crane model can be predicted from the forced vibration responses of the stationary framework due to actions of the four time-dependent moving point forces induced by the moving substructure. Since the magnitudes and positions of the moving point forces are dependent on the relative positions between the trolley, moving substructure and the stationary framework, it can be found from the numerical results that the time histories for the moving speeds of the moving substructure and the trolley are the key factors affecting the dynamic responses of the scale crane model.

Keywords: moving load, moving substructure, dynamic responses, forced vibration responses

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Ali Ben Abbes, ImedRiadh Farah, Vincent Barra

Abstract:

Remotely sensed data are a significant source for monitoring and updating databases for land use/cover. Nowadays, changes detection of urban area has been a subject of intensive researches. Timely and accurate data on spatio-temporal changes of urban areas are therefore required. The data extracted from multi-temporal satellite images are usually non-stationary. In fact, the changes evolve in time and space. This paper is an attempt to propose a methodology for changes detection in urban area by combining a non-stationary decomposition method and stochastic modeling. We consider as input of our methodology a sequence of satellite images I₁, I₂, … I_n at different periods (t = 1, 2, ..., n). Firstly, a preprocessing of multi-temporal satellite images is applied. (e.g. radiometric, atmospheric and geometric). The systematic study of global urban expansion in our methodology can be approached in two ways: The first considers the urban area as one same object as opposed to non-urban areas (e.g. vegetation, bare soil and water). The objective is to extract the urban mask. The second one aims to obtain a more knowledge of urban area, distinguishing different types of tissue within the urban area. In order to validate our approach, we used a database of Tres Cantos-Madrid in Spain, which is derived from Landsat for a period (from January 2004 to July 2013) by collecting two frames per year at a spatial resolution of 25 meters. The obtained results show the effectiveness of our method.

Keywords: multi-temporal satellite image, urban growth, non-stationary, stochastic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Sheena K. J., Jyoti Badge, Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

Abstract:

A Comparative Study of Exponential and Logistic Population Growth Models in India India is the second most populous city in the world, just behind China, and is going to be in the first place by next year. The Indian population has remarkably at higher rate than the other countries from the past 20 years. There were many scientists and demographers who has formulated various models of population growth in order to study and predict the future population. Some of the models are Fibonacci population growth model, Exponential growth model, Logistic growth model, Lotka-Volterra model, etc. These models have been effective in the past to an extent in predicting the population. However, it is essential to have a detailed comparative study between the population models to come out with a more accurate one. Having said that, this research study helps to analyze and compare the two population models under consideration - exponential and logistic growth models, thereby identifying the most effective one. Using the census data of 2011, the approximate population for 2016 to 2031 are calculated for 20 Indian states using both the models, compared and recorded the data with the actual population. On comparing the results of both models, it is found that logistic population model is more accurate than the exponential model, and using this model, we can predict the future population in a more effective way. This will give an insight to the researchers about the effective models of population and how effective these population models are in predicting the future population.

Keywords: population growth, population models, exponential model, logistic model, fibonacci model, lotka-volterra model, future population prediction, demographers

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Mahbod Seyednia, Shidvash Vakilipour, Mehran Masdari

Abstract:

Computations for two-dimensional flow past a stationary and harmonically pitching wind turbine airfoil at a moderate value of Reynolds number (400000) are carried out by progressively increasing the angle of attack for stationary airfoil and at fixed pitching frequencies for rotary one. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in conjunction with Unsteady Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations for turbulence modeling are solved by OpenFOAM package to investigate the aerodynamic phenomena occurred at stationary and pitching conditions on a NACA 6-series wind turbine airfoil. The aim of this study is to enhance the accuracy of numerical simulation in predicting the aerodynamic behavior of an oscillating airfoil in OpenFOAM. Hence, for turbulence modelling, k-ω-SST with low-Reynolds correction is employed to capture the unsteady phenomena occurred in stationary and oscillating motion of the airfoil. Using aerodynamic and pressure coefficients along with flow patterns, the unsteady aerodynamics at pre-, near-, and post-static stall regions are analyzed in harmonically pitching airfoil, and the results are validated with the corresponding experimental data possessed by the authors. The results indicate that implementing the mentioned turbulence model leads to accurate prediction of the angle of static stall for stationary airfoil and flow separation, dynamic stall phenomenon, and reattachment of the flow on the surface of airfoil for pitching one. Due to the geometry of the studied 6-series airfoil, the vortex on the upper surface of the airfoil during upstrokes is formed at the trailing edge. Therefore, the pattern flow obtained by our numerical simulations represents the formation and change of the trailing-edge vortex at near- and post-stall regions where this process determines the dynamic stall phenomenon.

Keywords: CFD, moderate Reynolds number, OpenFOAM, pitching oscillation, unsteady aerodynamics, wind turbine

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Michel Moliere

Abstract:

In the next decades, the thermal power generation segment will survive only if it achieves deep mutations, including drastical abatements of CO2 emissions and strong efficiency gains. In this challenging perspective, stationary gas turbines appear as serious candidates to lead the energy transition. Indeed, during the past decades, these turbomachines have made brisk technological advances in terms of efficiency, reliability, fuel flex (including the combustion of hydrogen), and the ability to hybridize with regenrables. It is, therefore, timely to summarize the progresses achieved by gas turbines in the recent past and to examine what are their assets to face the challenges of the energy transition.

Keywords: energy transition, gas turbines, decarbonization, power generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 169