Search results for: forecast combination

Authors: Givi Gavardashvili, Eduard Kukhalashvili, Tamriko Supatashvili, Giorgi Natroshvili, Konstantine Bziava, Irma Qufarashvili

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In the article to research water levels in the Zhinvali water reservoirs by field and theoretical research and using GPS and GIS technologies has been established dynamic of water reservoirs changes in the suitable coordinates and has been made water reservoir maps and is lined in the 3D format. By using of GPS coordinates and digital maps has been established water horizons of Zhinvali water reservoir in the absolute marks and has been calculated water levels volume. To forecast the filling of the Zhinvali water reservoir by solid sediment in 2018 conducted field experimental researches in the catchment basin of river Tetri (White) Aragvi. It has been established main hydrological and hydraulic parameters of the active erosion-debris flow tributaries of river Tetri Aragvi. It has been calculated erosion coefficient considering the degradation of the slope. By calculation is determined, that in the river Tetri Aragvi catchment basin the value of 1% maximum discharge changes Q1% = 70,0 – 550,0 m3/sec, and erosion coefficient - E = 0,73 - 1,62, with suitable fifth class of erosion and intensity 50-100 tone/hectare in the year.

Keywords: Zhinvali soil dam, water reservoirs, water levels, erosion, debris flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Nasrin Bakhshizadeh, Ashkan Forootan

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A major problem that affects the quality control of polymer in the industrial polymerization is the lack of suitable on-line measurement tools to evaluate the properties of the polymer such as melt and density indices. Controlling the polymerization in ordinary method is performed manually by taking samples, measuring the quality of polymer in the lab and registry of results. This method is highly time consuming and leads to producing large number of incompatible products. An online application for estimating melt index and density proposed in this study is a neural network based on the input-output data of the polyethylene production plant. Temperature, the level of reactors' bed, the intensity of ethylene mass flow, hydrogen and butene-1, the molar concentration of ethylene, hydrogen and butene-1 are used for the process to establish the neural model. The neural network is taught based on the actual operational data and back-propagation and Levenberg-Marquart techniques. The simulated results indicate that the neural network process model established with three layers (one hidden layer) for forecasting the density and the four layers for the melt index is able to successfully predict those quality properties.

Keywords: polyethylene, polymerization, density, melt index, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Chisomo Patrick Kumbuyo, Katsuyuki Shimizu, Hiroshi Yasuda, Yoshinobu Kitamura

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This study deals with a way of predicting Malawi rainfall from global sea surface temperature (SST) using a simple multiple regression model. Monthly rainfall data from nine stations in Malawi grouped into two zones on the basis of inter-station rainfall correlations were used in the study. Zone 1 consisted of Karonga and Nkhatabay stations, located in northern Malawi; and Zone 2 consisted of Bolero, located in northern Malawi; Kasungu, Dedza, Salima, located in central Malawi; Mangochi, Makoka and Ngabu stations located in southern Malawi. Links between Malawi rainfall and SST based on statistical correlations were evaluated and significant results selected as predictors for the regression models. The predictors for Zone 1 model were identified from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans while those for Zone 2 were identified from the Pacific Ocean. The correlation between the fit of predicted and observed rainfall values of the models were satisfactory with r=0.81 and 0.54 for Zone 1 and 2 respectively (significant at less than 99.99%). The results of the models are in agreement with other findings that suggest that SST anomalies in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans have an influence on the rainfall patterns of Southern Africa.

Keywords: Malawi rainfall, forecast model, predictors, SST

Procedia PDF Downloads 389

Authors: E. U. Dampage, Ovindi D. Bandara, Vinushi S. Waraketiya, Samitha S. R. De Silva, Yasiru S. Gunarathne

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The knowledge of water inflow figures is paramount in decision making on the allocation for consumption for numerous purposes; irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial usage, and flood control. The understanding of how reservoir inflows are affected by different climatic and hydrological conditions is crucial to enable effective water management and downstream flood control. In this research, we propose a method using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to assist the aforesaid decision-making process. The Kotmale reservoir, which is the uppermost reservoir in the Mahaweli reservoir complex in Sri Lanka, was used as the test bed for this research. The ANN uses the runoff in the Kotmale reservoir catchment area and the effect of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) to make a forecast for seven days ahead. Three types of ANN are tested; Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and LSTM. The extensive field trials and validation endeavors found that the LSTM ANN provides superior performance in the aspects of accuracy and latency.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, CNN, inflow, long short-term memory, LSTM, multi-layer perceptron, MLP, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Tehrrie Konig, Cassiano Bortolozo, Daniel Metodiev, Rodolfo Mendes, Marcio Andrade, Marcio Moraes

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Gravitational mass movements are recurrent events in Brazil, usually triggered by intense rainfall. When these events occur in urban areas, they end up becoming disasters due to the economic damage, social impact, and loss of human life. To identify the landslide-susceptible areas, it is important to know the geotechnical parameters of the soil, such as cohesion, internal friction angle, unit weight, hydraulic conductivity, and hydraulic diffusivity. The measurement of these parameters is made by collecting soil samples to analyze in the laboratory and by using geophysical methodologies, such as Vertical Electrical Survey (VES). The geophysical surveys analyze the soil properties with minimal impact in its initial structure. Statistical analysis and mathematical models of physical basis are used to model and calculate the Factor of Safety for steep slope areas. In general, such mathematical models work from the combination of slope stability models and hydrological models. One example is the mathematical model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope- Stability Model) which calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety of a determined study area. The model relies on changes in pore-pressure and soil moisture during a rainfall event. TRIGRS was written in the Fortran programming language and associates the hydrological model, which is based on the Richards Equation, with the stability model based on the principle of equilibrium limit. Therefore, the aims of this work are modeling the slope stability of Campos do Jordão with TRIGRS, using geotechnical and geophysical methodologies to acquire the soil properties. The study area is located at southern-east of Sao Paulo State in the Mantiqueira Mountains and has a historic landslide register. During the fieldwork, soil samples were collected, and the VES method applied. These procedures provide the soil properties, which were used as input data in the TRIGRS model. The hydrological data (infiltration rate and initial water table height) and rainfall duration and intensity, were acquired from the eight rain gauges installed by Cemaden in the study area. A very high spatial resolution digital terrain model was used to identify the slopes declivity. The analyzed period is from March 6th to March 8th of 2017. As results, the TRIGRS model calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety within a 72-hour period in which two heavy rainfall events stroke the area and six landslides were registered. After each rainfall, the Factor of Safety declined, as expected. The landslides happened in areas identified by the model with low values of Factor of Safety, proving its efficiency on the identification of landslides susceptible areas. This study presents a critical threshold for landslides, in which an accumulated rainfall higher than 80mm/m² in 72 hours might trigger landslides in urban and natural slopes. The geotechnical and geophysics methods are shown to be very useful to identify the soil properties and provide the geological characteristics of the area. Therefore, the combine geotechnical and geophysical methods for soil characterization and the modeling of landslides susceptible areas with TRIGRS are useful for urban planning. Furthermore, early warning systems can be developed by combining the TRIGRS model and weather forecast, to prevent disasters in urban slopes.

Keywords: landslides, susceptibility, TRIGRS, vertical electrical survey

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Franziska Klauser, Manuel Schwabl, Alexander Weissinger, Christoph Schmidl, Walter Haslinger, Anne Kasper-Giebl

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Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is the most widely investigated representative of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) as well as one of the most toxic compounds in this group. Since 2013 in the European Union a limit value for BaP concentration in the ambient air is applied, which was set to a yearly average value of 1 ng m-3. Several reports show that in some regions, even where industry and traffic are of minor impact this threshold is regularly exceeded. This is taken as proof that biomass combustion for heating purposes contributes significantly to BaP pollution. Several investigations have been already carried out on the BaP emission behavior of biomass combustion furnaces, mostly focusing on a certain aspect like the influences from wood type, of operation type or of technology type. However, a superior view on emission patterns of BaP from biomass combustion and the aggregation of determined values also from recent studies is not presented so far. The combination of determined values allows a better understanding of the BaP emission behavior from biomass combustion. In this work the review conclusions are driven from the combination of outcomes from different publication. In two examples it was shown that technical progress leads to 10 to 100 fold lower BaP emission from modern furnaces compared to old technologies of equivalent type. It was also indicated that the operation with pellets or wood chips exhibits clearly lower BaP emission factors compared to operation with log wood. Although, the BaP emission level from automatic furnaces is strongly impacted by the kind of operation. This work delivers an overview on BaP emission factors from different biomass combustion appliances, from different operation modes and from the combustion of different fuel and wood types. The main impact factors are depicted, and suggestions for low BaP emission biomass combustion are derived. As one result possible investigation fields concerning BaP emissions from biomass combustion that seem to be most important to be clarified are suggested.

Keywords: benzo(a)pyrene, biomass, combustion, emission, pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: Thi Huong Vu, Vijay Jayasena, Zhongxiang Fang, Gary Dykes

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Carob kibble has recently received attention due to the presence of high level of polyphenol antioxidants. The capacity of microorganisms to improve antioxidant activities and total phenolics in carob kibble was investigated in the study. Two types of microorganisms including lactic acid bacteria Lactobacillus plantarum (L. plantarum) and yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae (S. cerevisiae) were used in single and in their combination as starters. The total phenolic content was determined by the Folin–Ciocalteu method. Antioxidant activities were assessed scavenging capacity using 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) and 2,2′-azinobis-(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid (ABTS). The study found that S. cerevisiae alone considerably improved 55% total phenolics content at 15 h, while L. plantarum caused in a loss of 20% through the process. Antioxidant capacity of the yeast-fermented samples significantly increased by 43 % and 10 % in ABTS and DPPH assays, respectively. However, reduction of 13 % and 32 % inhibition were recorded in the carob treated with L. plantarum. In the combination of S. cerevisiae and L. plantarum (1:1), both total phenolic content and antioxidant activity of carob kibble were a similar trend as these of S. cerevisiae single, but a lower improvement. The antioxidant power of the extracts was linearly correlated to their total phenolic contents (R=0.75). The results suggested that S. cerevisiae alone was the better for enhancement of both total phenolic content and antioxidant activity in carob kibble using submerged fermentation. The efficiency of fermentation reached the highest at 15h. Thus submerged fermentation with S. cerevisiae offers a tool with simple and cost effective to further increase the bioactive potential of carob kibble, which is in use for food, cosmetic and pharmaceutical industries.

Keywords: antioxidant activity, carob kibble, lactobacillus plantarum, saccharomyces cerevisiae, total phenolics

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Srinivas Vangari

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With the technological advancements around the globe, artificial intelligence (AI) has boosted supply chain management (SCM) by improving efficiency, sensitivity, and promptness. Artificial intelligence-based SCM provides comprehensive perceptions of consumer behavior in dynamic market situations and trends, foreseeing the accurate demand. It reduces overproduction and stockouts while optimizing production planning and streamlining operations. Consequently, the AI-driven SCM produces a customer-centric supply with resilient and robust operations. Intending to delve into the transformative significance of AI in SCM, this study focuses on improving efficiency in SCM with the integration of AI, understanding the production demand, accurate forecasting, and particular production planning. The study employs a mixed-method approach and expert survey insights to explore the challenges and benefits of AI applications in SCM. Further, a case analysis is incorporated to identify the best practices and potential challenges with the critical success features in AI-driven SCM. Key findings of the study indicate the significant advantages of the AI-integrated SCM, including optimized inventory management, improved transportation and logistics management, cost optimization, and advanced decision-making, positioning AI as a pivotal force in the future of supply chain management.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, supply chain management, accurate forecast, accurate planning of production, understanding demand

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Authors: Seema Ahlawat, Parul Saxena, Malik Zainul Abdin

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Malaria is a major health problem in many developing countries. The parasite responsible for the vast majority of fatal malaria infections is Plasmodium falciparum. Unfortunately, most Plasmodium strains including P. falciparum have become resistant to most of the antimalarials including chloroquine, mefloquine, etc. To combat this problem, WHO has recommended the use of artemisinin and its derivatives in artemisinin based combination therapy (ACT). Due to its current use in artemisinin based-combination therapy (ACT), its global demand is increasing continuously. But, the relatively low yield of artemisinin in A. annua L. plants and unavailability of economically viable synthetic protocols are the major bottlenecks for its commercial production and clinical use. Chemical synthesis of artemisinin is also very complex and uneconomical. The hairy root system, using the Agrobacterium rhizogenes LBA 9402 strain to enhance the production of artemisinin in A. annua L., is developed in our laboratory. The transgenic nature of hairy root lines and the copy number of trans gene (rol B) were confirmed using PCR and Southern Blot analyses, respectively. The effect of different concentrations of Piriformospora indica on artemisinin production in hairy root cultures were evaluated. 3% P. indica has resulted 1.97 times increase in artemisinin production in comparison to control cultures. The effects of P. indica on artemisinin production was positively correlated with regulatory genes of MVA, MEP and artemisinin biosynthetic pathways, viz. hmgr, ads, cyp71av1, aldh1, dxs, dxr and dbr2 in hairy root cultures of A. annua L. Mass scale cultivation of A. annua L. hairy roots by plant tissue culture technology may be an alternative route for production of artemisinin. A comprehensive investigation of the hairy root system of A. annua L. would help in developing a viable process for the production of artemisinin. The efficiency of the scaling up systems still needs optimization before industrial exploitation becomes viable.

Keywords: A. annua L., artemisinin, hairy root cultures, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 415

Authors: R. Tlili Yaakoubi, H.Nakouri, O. Blanpain, S. Lallahem

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The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: automation, optimization, paradigm, RTC

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Chen Zhi-Wei, Hsieh Wei-Fang

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Taiwan annual rainfall is global average of 2.5 times, plus city excessive development, green constantly to reduced, instead of is big area of artificial base disc, makes Taiwan rainy season during occurred of storm cannot timely of emissions, led to flood constantly, and rain also cannot was retained again using, led to city hydrological balance suffered damage, and to Regulation city of by brings of negative effect, increased green covered rate became most effective of method, and city land limited, so roof green gradually became a alternative program. Green roofs have become one of the Central and local government policy initiatives for urban development, in foreign countries, such as the United States, and Japan, and Singapore etc. Development of roof greening as an important policy, has become a trend of the times. In recent years, many experts and scholars are also on the roof greening all aspects of research, mostly for green roof for the environmental impact of benefits, such as: carbon reduction, cooling, thermostat, but research on the benefits of green roofs under water cut but it is rare. Therefore, this research literature from green roof in to view and analyze what kind of medium suitable for roof greening and use of green base plate combination simulated green roof structure, via different proportions of the medium with water retention plate and drainage board, experiment with different planting base plate combination of water conservation performance. Research will want to test the effect of roof planting base mix, promotion of relevant departments and agencies in future implementation of green roofs, prompted the development of green roofs, which in the end Taiwan achieve sustainable development of the urban environment help.

Keywords: thin-layer roof greening and planting medium, water efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Juan A. Arzate, Funda C. Ertem, M. Nicolas Cruz-Bournazou, Peter Neubauer, Stefan Junne

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— One of the biggest challenges the world faces today is global warming that is caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) coming from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy generation. In order to mitigate climate change, the European Union has committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80–95% below the level of the 1990s by the year 2050. Renewable technologies are vital to diminish energy-related GHG emissions. Since water and biomass are limited resources, the largest contributions to renewable energy (RE) systems will have to come from wind and solar power. Nevertheless, high proportions of fluctuating RE will present a number of challenges, especially regarding the need to balance the variable energy demand with the weather dependent fluctuation of energy supply. Therefore, biogas plants in this content would play an important role, since they are easily adaptable. Feedstock availability varies locally or seasonally; however there is a lack of knowledge in how biogas plants should be operated in a stable manner by local feedstock. This problem may be prevented through suitable control strategies. Such strategies require the development of convenient mathematical models, which fairly describe the main processes. Modelling allows us to predict the system behavior of biogas plants when different feedstocks are used with different loading rates. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a technique for analyzing several sides from evolution of a product till its disposal in an environmental point of view. It is highly recommend to use as a decision making tool. In order to achieve suitable strategies, the combination of a flexible energy generation provided by biogas plants, a secure production process and the maximization of the environmental benefits can be obtained by the combination of process modelling and LCA approaches. For this reason, this study focuses on the biogas plant which flexibly generates required energy from the co-digestion of maize, grass and cattle manure, while emitting the lowest amount of GHG´s. To achieve this goal AMOCO model was combined with LCA. The program was structured in Matlab to simulate any biogas process based on the AMOCO model and combined with the equations necessary to obtain climate change, acidification and eutrophication potentials of the whole production system based on ReCiPe midpoint v.1.06 methodology. Developed simulation was optimized based on real data from operating biogas plants and existing literature research. The results prove that AMOCO model can successfully imitate the system behavior of biogas plants and the necessary time required for the process to adapt in order to generate demanded energy from available feedstock. Combination with LCA approach provided opportunity to keep the resulting emissions from operation at the lowest possible level. This would allow for a prediction of the process, when the feedstock utilization supports the establishment of closed material circles within a smart bio-production grid – under the constraint of minimal drawbacks for the environment and maximal sustainability.

Keywords: AMOCO model, GHG emissions, life cycle assessment, modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Harry G. Segal

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The idea of the “self” has been essential ever since the early modern period in western culture, especially since the development of psychotherapy, but advances in neuroscience and cognitive theory challenge traditional notions of the self. More specifically, neuroanatomists have found no location of “the self” in the brain; instead, consciousness has been posited to be a rapid combination of perception, memory, anticipation of future events, and judgment. In this paper, a theoretical model is presented to address these neuroanatomical findings and to revise the historical understanding of “selfhood” in the practice of psychotherapy.

Keywords: the self, psychotherapy, the self and the brain

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Faraj Alhamami

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The effects of classroom input through structured input activities have been addressing two main lines of inquiry: (1) measuring the effects of structured input activities as a possible causative factor of PI and (2) comparing structured input practice versus other types of instruction or no-training controls. This line of research, the main purpose of this classroom-based research, was to establish which type of activities is the most effective in processing instruction, whether it is the explicit information component and referential activities only or the explicit information component and affective activities only or a combination of the two. The instruments were: a) grammatical judgment task, b) Picture-cued task, and c) a translation task as pre-tests, post-tests and delayed post-tests seven weeks after the intervention. While testing is ongoing, preliminary results shows that the examination of participants' pre-test performance showed that all five groups - the processing instruction including both activities (RA), Traditional group (TI), Referential group (R), Affective group (A), and Control group - performed at a comparable chance or baseline level across the three outcome measures. However, at the post-test stage, the RA, TI, R, and A groups demonstrated significant improvement compared to the Control group in all tasks. Furthermore, significant difference was observed among PI groups (RA, R, and A) at post-test and delayed post-test on some of the tasks when compared to traditional group. Therefore, the findings suggest that the use of the sole application and/or the combination of the structured input activities has succeeded in helping Saudi learners of English make initial form-meaning connections and acquire RRCs in the short and the long term.

Keywords: input processing, processing instruction, MOGUL, structure input activities

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Nina Miklavčič, Urška Kugovnik, Natalia Galkina, Primož Ribarič, Rudi Vončina

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Today, the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas, from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely, in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is also critical for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models. In the article, we focused on the estimation of measurement uncertainty of the diagnostic microscale meteorological model CALMET. For the purposes of our research, we used a network of meteorological stations spread in the area of our interest, which enables a side-by-side comparison of measured meteorological values with the values calculated with the help of CALMET and the measurement uncertainty estimation as a final result.

Keywords: uncertancy, meteorological model, meteorological measurment, CALMET

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Authors: N. Sabiyath Fatima, R. K. Shanmugasundaram

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In Mobile Ad-hoc Networks (MANETS), every node performs both as transmitter and receiver. The existing backoff models do not exactly forecast the performance of the wireless network. Also, the existing models experience elevated packet collisions. Every time a collision happens, the station’s contention window (CW) is doubled till it arrives at the utmost value. The main objective of this paper is to diminish collision by means of contention window Multiplicative Increase Decrease Backoff (CWMIDB) scheme. The intention of rising CW is to shrink the collision possibility by distributing the traffic into an outsized point in time. Within wireless Ad hoc networks, the CWMIDB algorithm dynamically controls the contention window of the nodes experiencing collisions. During packet communication, the backoff counter is evenly selected from the given choice of [0, CW-1]. At this point, CW is recognized as contention window and its significance lies on the amount of unsuccessful transmission that had happened for the packet. On the initial transmission endeavour, CW is put to least amount value (C min), if transmission effort fails, subsequently the value gets doubled, and once more the value is set to least amount on victorious broadcast. CWMIDB is simulated inside NS2 environment and its performance is compared with Binary Exponential Backoff Algorithm. The simulation results show improvement in transmission probability compared to that of the existing backoff algorithm.

Keywords: backoff, contention window, CWMIDB, MANET

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Lola T. Alimkhodjaeva, Lola T. Zakirova, Soniya S. Ziyavidenova

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Background: Breast cancer occupies the first place among the cancer in women in the world. It is urgent today to study the role of molecular markers which are capable of predicting the dynamics and outcome of the disease. The aim of this study is to define the prognostic value of the content of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), and amplification of HER-2 / neu oncoprotein by studying 3 and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival in 470 patients with primary operable and 280 patients with locally–advanced breast cancer. Materials and methods: Study results of 3 and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival, depending on the content of RE, PgR in primary operable patients showed that ER positive (+) and PgR (+) survival was 100 (96.2%) and 97.3 (94.6%), for ER negative (-) and PgR (-) - 69.2 (60.3%) and 65.4 (57.7%), for ER positive (+) and negative PgR (-) 87.4 (80.1%) and 81.5 (79.3%), for ER negative (-) and positive PgR (+) - 97.4 (93.4%) and 90.4 (88.5%), respectively. Survival results depended also on the level of HER-2 / neu expression. In patients with HER-2 / neu negative the survival rates were as follows: 98.6 (94.7%) and 96.2 (92.3%). In group of patients with the level of HER-2 / neu (2+) expression these figures were: 45.3 (44.3%) and 45.1 (40.2%), and in group of patients with the level of HER-2 / neu (3+) expression - 41.2 (33.1%) and 34.3 (29.4%). The combination of ER negative (-), PgR (-), HER-2 / neu (-) they were 27.2 (25.4%) and 19.5 (15.3%), respectively. In patients with locally-advanced breast cancer the results of 3 and 5-year OS and RFS for ER (+) and PgR (+) were 76.3 (69.3%) and 62.2 (61.4%), for ER (-) and RP (-) 29.1 (23.7%) and 18.3 (12.6%), for ER (+) and PgR (-) 61.2 (47.2%) and 39.4 (25.6%), for ER (-) and PgR (+) 54.3 (43.1%) and 41.3 (18.3%), respectively. The level of HER-2 / neu expression also affected the survival results. Therefore, in HER-2/ neu negative patients the survival rate was 74.1 (67.6%) and 65.1 (57.3%), with the level of expression (2+) 20.4 (14.2%) and 8.6 (6.4%), with the level of expression (3+) 6.2 (3.1%) and 1.2 (1.5%), respectively. The combination for ER, PgR, HER-2 / neu negative was 22.1 (14.3%) and 8.4 (1.2%). Conclusion: Thus, the presence of steroid hormone receptors in breast tumor tissues at primary operable and locally- advanced process as the lack of HER-2/neu oncoprotein correlates with the highest rates of 3- and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival. The absence of steroid hormone receptors as well as of HER-2/neu overexpression in malignant breast tissues significantly degrades the 3- and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival. Tumors with ER, PgR and HER-2/neu negative have the most unfavorable prognostics.

Keywords: breast cancer, estrogen receptor, oncoprotein, progesterone receptor

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Lim Sanny, Felix Christian

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The use of heavy equipment in Indonesia is always increasing. Cost reduction in procurement of spare parts is the aim of the company. The spare parts in this research are focused in the kind of filters. On the early step, the choosing of priority filter will be studied further by using the ABC analysis. To find out future demand of the filter, this research is using demand forecast by utilizing the QM software for windows. And to find out the best method of inventory control for each kind of filter is by comparing the total cost of Economic Order Quantity and Quick response inventory method. For the three kind of filters which are Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123, Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, and Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054, the best forecasting method is Linear regression. The best method for inventory control of Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123 and Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, is Quick Response Inventory, while the best method for Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054 is Economic Order Quantity.

Keywords: strategy, inventory, ABC analysis, forecasting, economic order quantity, quick response inventory

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Bahareh Golchin, Nooshin Riahi

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One of the most significant issues as attended a lot in recent years is that of recognizing the sentiments and emotions in social media texts. The analysis of sentiments and emotions is intended to recognize the conceptual information such as the opinions, feelings, attitudes and emotions of people towards the products, services, organizations, people, topics, events and features in the written text. These indicate the greatness of the problem space. In the real world, businesses and organizations are always looking for tools to gather ideas, emotions, and directions of people about their products, services, or events related to their own. This article uses the Twitter social network, one of the most popular social networks with about 420 million active users, to extract data. Using this social network, users can share their information and opinions about personal issues, policies, products, events, etc. It can be used with appropriate classification of emotional states due to the availability of its data. In this study, supervised learning and deep neural network algorithms are used to classify the emotional states of Twitter users. The use of deep learning methods to increase the learning capacity of the model is an advantage due to the large amount of available data. Tweets collected on various topics are classified into four classes using a combination of two Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory network and a Convolutional network. The results obtained from this study with an average accuracy of 93%, show good results extracted from the proposed framework and improved accuracy compared to previous work.

Keywords: emotion classification, sentiment analysis, social networks, deep neural networks

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Authors: Imdad Ullah Khan, Yongseok Yoon, Kyeung Uk Choi, Kwang Rae Jo, Namyul Kim, Eunbee Lee, Wan Hee Kim, Oh-Kyeong Kweon

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The primary spinal cord injury (SCI) causes mechanical damage to the neurons and blood vessels. It leads to secondary SCI, which activates multiple pathological pathways, which expand neuronal damage at the injury site. It is characterized by vascular disruption, ischemia, excitotoxicity, oxidation, inflammation, and apoptotic cell death. It causes nerve demyelination and disruption of axons, which perpetuate a loss of impulse conduction through the injured spinal cord. It also leads to the production of myelin inhibitory molecules, which with a concomitant formation of an astroglial scar, impede axonal regeneration. The pivotal role regarding the neuronal necrosis is played by oxidation and inflammation. During an early stage of spinal cord injury, there occurs an abundant expression of reactive oxygen species (ROS) due to defective mitochondrial metabolism and abundant migration of phagocytes (macrophages, neutrophils). ROS cause lipid peroxidation of the cell membrane, and cell death. Abundant migration of neutrophils, macrophages, and lymphocytes collectively produce pro-inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-1beta (IL-1β), matrix metalloproteinase, superoxide dismutase, and myeloperoxidases which synergize neuronal apoptosis. Therefore, it is crucial to control inflammation and oxidation injury to minimize the nerve cell death during secondary spinal cord injury. Therefore, in response to oxidation and inflammation, heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is induced by the resident cells to ameliorate the milieu. In the meanwhile, neurotrophic factors are induced to promote neuroregeneration. However, it seems that anti-stress enzyme (HO-1) and neurotrophic factor (BDNF) do not significantly combat the pathological events during secondary spinal cord injury. Therefore, optimum healing can be induced if anti-inflammatory and neurotrophic factors are administered in a higher amount through an exogenous source. During the first experiment, the inflammation and neuroregeneration were selectively targeted. HO-1 expressing MSCs (HO-1 MSCs) and BDNF expressing MSCs (BDNF MSC) were co-transplanted in one group (combination group) of dogs with subacute spinal cord injury to selectively control the expression of inflammatory cytokines by HO-1 and induce neuroregeneration by BDNF. We compared the combination group with the HO-1 MSCs group, BDNF MSCs group, and GFP MSCs group. We found that the combination group showed significant improvement in functional recovery. It showed increased expression of neural markers and growth-associated proteins (GAP-43) than in other groups, which depicts enhanced neuroregeneration/neural sparing due to reduced expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-alpha, IL-6 and COX-2; and increased expression of anti-inflammatory markers such as IL-10 and HO-1. Histopathological study revealed reduced intra-parenchymal fibrosis in the injured spinal cord segment in the combination group than in other groups. Thus it was concluded that selectively targeting the inflammation and neuronal growth with the combined use of HO-1 MSCs and BDNF MSCs more favorably promote healing of the SCI. HO-1 MSCs play a role in controlling the inflammation, which favors the BDNF induced neuroregeneration at the injured spinal cord segment of dogs.

Keywords: HO-1 MSCs, BDNF MSCs, neuroregeneration, inflammation, anti-inflammation, spinal cord injury, dogs

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Rabaa Tlili Yaakoubi, Hind Nakouri, Olivier Blanpain

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The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of the CARDIO project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 40 to 100%. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 60% of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 80 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: RTC, paradigm, optimization, automation

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: river stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform, Ensemble Empirical Decomposition Mode, multi-station modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: S. Y. Lin, C. H. Kuan, C. H. She, W. T. Wang

Abstract:

In this study, ultrasonic assisted machining (UAM) technique is applied in side-surface milling experiment for glass-ceramic workpiece material. The tungsten carbide cutting-tool with diamond coating is used in conjunction with two kinds of cooling/lubrication mediums such as water-soluble (WS) cutting fluid and minimum quantity lubricant (MQL). Full factorial process parameter combinations on the milling experiments are planned to investigate the effect of process parameters on cutting performance. From the experimental results, it tries to search for the better process parameter combination which the edge-indentation and the surface roughness are acceptable. In the machining experiments, ultrasonic oscillator was used to excite a cutting-tool along the radial direction producing a very small amplitude of vibration frequency of 20KHz to assist the machining process. After processing, toolmaker microscope was used to detect the side-surface morphology, edge-indentation and cutting tool wear under different combination of cutting parameters, and analysis and discussion were also conducted for experimental results. The results show that the main leading parameters to edge-indentation of glass ceramic are cutting depth and feed rate. In order to reduce edge-indentation, it needs to use lower cutting depth and feed rate. Water-soluble cutting fluid provides a better cooling effect in the primary cutting area; it may effectively reduce the edge-indentation and improve the surface morphology of the glass ceramic. The use of ultrasonic assisted technique can effectively enhance the surface finish cleanness and reduce cutting tool wear and edge-indentation.

Keywords: glass-ceramic, ultrasonic assisted machining, cutting performance, edge-indentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Yahya Asanoglu, Celaletdin Ergun

Abstract:

Ceramic-matrix composites (CMC) have significant prominence in various engineering applications because of their heat resistance associated with an ability to withstand the brittle type of catastrophic failure. In this study, specific raw materials have been chosen for the purpose of having suitable CMC material for high-temperature dielectric applications. CMC material will be manufactured through the polymer infiltration and pyrolysis (PIP) method. During the manufacturing process, vacuum infiltration and autoclave will be applied so as to decrease porosity and obtain higher mechanical properties, although this advantage leads to a decrease in the electrical performance of the material. Time and temperature adjustment in pyrolysis parameters provide a significant difference in the properties of the resulting material. The mechanical and thermal properties will be investigated in addition to the measurement of dielectric constant and tangent loss values within the spectrum of Ku-band (12 to 18 GHz). Also, XRD, TGA/PTA analyses will be employed to prove the transition of precursor to ceramic phases and to detect critical transition temperatures. Additionally, SEM analysis on the fracture surfaces will be performed to see failure mechanism whether there is fiber pull-out, crack deflection and others which lead to ductility and toughness in the material. In this research, the cost-effectiveness and applicability of the PIP method will be proven in the manufacture of CMC materials while optimization of pyrolysis time, temperature and cycle for specific materials is detected by experiment. Also, several resins will be shown to be a potential raw material for CMC radome and antenna applications. This research will be distinguished from previous related papers due to the fact that in this research, the combination of different precursors and fabrics will be experimented with to specify the unique cons and pros of each combination. In this way, this is an experimental sum of previous works with unique PIP parameters and a guide to the manufacture of CMC radome and antenna.

Keywords: CMC, PIP, precursor, quartz

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: V. Prodocimo, A. Malucelli, S. Reinehr

Abstract:

Organizations, driven by business digitization, have in software the main core of value generation and the main channel of communication with their clients. The software, as well as responding to momentary market needs, spans an extensive product family, ranging from mobile applications to multilateral platforms. Thus, the software specification needs to represent solutions focused on consumer problems and market needs. However, requirements engineering, whose approach is strongly linked to technology, becomes deficient and ineffective when the problem is not well defined or when looking for an innovative solution, thus needing a complementary approach. Research has cited the combination of design thinking and requirements engineering, many correlating design thinking as a support technique for the elicitation step, however, little is known about the real benefits and challenges that this combination can bring. From the point of view of the development process, there is little empirical evidence of how Design Thinking interactions with requirements engineering occur. Given this scenario, this paper aims to understand how design thinking practices are applied in each of the requirements engineering stages in software projects. To elucidate these interactions, a qualitative and exploratory research was carried out through the application of the case study method in IT organizations in Brazil that work in the development of software projects. The results indicate that design thinking has aided requirements engineering, both in projects that adopt agile methods and those that adopt the waterfall process, bringing a complementary thought that seeks to build the best software solution design for business problems. It was also possible to conclude that organizations choose to use design thinking not based on a specific software family (e.g. mobile or desktop applications), but given the characteristics of the software projects, such as: vague nature of the problem, complex problems and/or need for innovative solutions.

Keywords: software engineering, requirements engineering, design thinking, innovative solutions

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Fhulufhelo Ramukhithi, Kgothatso Masethe, Tlou Chokoe, Ayanda Maqhashu, Julius Sebei, Tshililo Raphulu, Joseph Mugwabana

Abstract:

Phenotypic characterisation ensures that the physical appearance of an animal is well documented. The information provided by this phenotypic characterisation study is important for planning management and the use of animal genetic resources. The aim of this study was to characterise the phenotypic characteristics of Bapedi sheep. Bapedi sheep are at risk of extinction like most of the indigenous breeds. As a result, a total of 196 Bapedi ewes and 35 rams were used. Phenotypic-qualitative characteristics were evaluated through visual appraisal. Phenotypic-quantitative characteristics such as body parts measurements were obtained using a flexible tape (cm), while body weight were obtained by using a weighing scale (kg). Bapedi rams (97 %) had higher satisfactory body condition when compared to ewes (75 %). A higher proportion of Bapedi sheep that did not have ticks observed (ewes = 87 % and rams = 91 %). Brown and white colour combination (head x body) was dominating in Bapedi sheep (80 % ewes and 91 % rams). Bapedi ewes did not have any horns; however, 3 % of rams had them. Bapedi sheep had a higher proportion of brown eyes, moderate neck, stiff sideways ears and normal front legs. Bapedi rams had a higher proportion of well-balanced and good attached testicles. Bapedi ewes had average (45 %), small (40 %) and big udders (15 %). Bapedi rams had a significantly higher body weight, height, depth, hearth girth circumference, rump width, hind leg width and length compared to ewes. However, both Bapedi rams and ewes had similar age, body condition score, tail length, length below hock and knee. In conclusion, Bapedi sheep had a higher satisfactory body condition and brown and white colour combination. Some of Bapedi rams’ quantitative characteristics were higher compared to ewes.

Keywords: extinction, indigenous, phenotypic, smallstock

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: J. F. Pollo Gaspary, F. Peron Gaspary, E. M. Simão, R. Concatto Beltrame, G. Orengo de Oliveira, M. S. Ristow Ferreira, F. Sartori Thies, I. F. Minello, F. dos Santos de Oliveira

Abstract:

Background: The immune system has evolved several mechanisms to protect the host against cancer, and it has now been suggested that the expansion of its functions may prevent tumor growth and control the symptoms of cancer patients. Two techniques, ozone therapy and pulsed electromagnetic fields (PEMF), are independently associated with an increase in the immune system functions and they maybe help palliative care of patients in these conditions. Case Report: A patient with rectal adenocarcinoma with metastases decides to interrupt the clinical chemotherapy protocol due to refractoriness and side effects. As a palliative care alternative treatment it is suggested to the patient the use of ozone therapy associated with PEMF techniques. Results: The patient reports an improvement in well-being, in autonomy and in pain control. Imaging tests confirm a pause in tumor growth despite more than 60 days without using classic treatment. These results associated with palliative care alternative treatment stimulate the return to the chemotherapy protocol. Discussion: This case illustrates that these two techniques can contribute to the control of tumor growth and refractory symptoms, such as pain, probably by enhancing the immune system. Conclusions: The potential use of the combination of these two therapies, ozone therapy and PEMF therapy, can contribute to palliation of cancer patients, alone or in combination with pharmacological therapies. The conduct of future investigations on this paradigm can elucidate how much these techniques contribute to the survival and well-being of these patients.

Keywords: cancer, complementary and alternative medicine , ozone therapy, palliative care, PEMF therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Adrian Reynaldo Sudirman, Siti Farida, Aisyah Aminy Maulidina, Caren Andika Surbakti

Abstract:

Sedentary lifestyle and imbalance consumption pattern has made metabolic syndrome as the global time bomb phenomenon in the world. The increasing tendency of people in consuming high amount of fructose and cholesterol food has worsened this issue in the society. Pancreas steatosis become one of the most comorbid when early diagnosis and prompt treatment has not been applied on hyperglycemic and hyperlipidemic condition in metabolic syndrome patient. Gemfibrozil become the drug of choice to prevent this issue, yet the efficacy of this regiment was still questionable. Acalypha indica Linn. is the herb that has protective effect on hyperlipidemic and hyperglycemic condition. This study was aimed to compare therapeutic effect of gemfibrozil (G) and Acalypha indica Linn. (AI) on high fructose and cholesterol diet-induced pancreas steatosis in Sprague-Dawley mice. The post induction mice were divided into four groups: control, gemfibrozil, AI extract, and G+AI combination regiment. Each group received four weeks intervention. The result of statistical analysis using the One-Way ANOVA test and Tukey Post Hoc test showed significant decrease in pancreatic steatosis between the control group and administered Acalypha indica group (p = 0.004, 95% CI: 0.170-0.959) and the group administered with a combination of Gemfibrozil-Acalypha indica (p = 0.023, 95% CI: 0.537-0.813). The protective effect of Acalypha indica Linn. shows that this plant has the potential as therapeutic option in overcoming the condition of pancreas steatosis in metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: Acalypha Indica Linn., Cholesterol, Fructose, Gemfibrozil, Pancreas Steatosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 307