Search results for: meteorological model

Authors: Nina Miklavčič, Urška Kugovnik, Natalia Galkina, Primož Ribarič, Rudi Vončina

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Today, the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas, from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely, in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is also critical for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models. In the article, we focused on the estimation of measurement uncertainty of the diagnostic microscale meteorological model CALMET. For the purposes of our research, we used a network of meteorological stations spread in the area of our interest, which enables a side-by-side comparison of measured meteorological values with the values calculated with the help of CALMET and the measurement uncertainty estimation as a final result.

Keywords: uncertancy, meteorological model, meteorological measurment, CALMET

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Nebila Lichiheb, LaToya Myles, William Pendergrass, Bruce Hicks, Dawson Cagle

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Atmospheric transport of hazardous materials in urban areas is increasingly under investigation due to the potential impact on human health and the environment. In response to health and safety concerns, several dispersion models have been developed to analyze and predict the dispersion of hazardous contaminants. The models of interest usually rely on meteorological information obtained from the meteorological models of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS). However, due to the complexity of the urban environment, NWS forecasts provide an inadequate basis for dispersion computation in urban areas. A dense meteorological network in Washington, DC, called DCNet, has been operated by NOAA since 2003 to support the development of urban monitoring methodologies and provide the driving meteorological observations for atmospheric transport and dispersion models. This study focuses on the comparison of wind observations from the DCNet station on the U.S. Department of Commerce Herbert C. Hoover Building against the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model outputs for the period 2017-2019. The goal is to develop a simple methodology for modifying NAM outputs so that the dispersion requirements of the city and its urban area can be satisfied. This methodology will allow us to quantify the prediction errors of the NAM model and propose adjustments of key variables controlling dispersion model calculation.

Keywords: meteorological data, Washington D.C., DCNet data, NAM model

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

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The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used as regional climate model to dynamically downscale the ECHAM5 Global Climate Model projection for the regional climate change impact on air quality–related meteorological conditions in the upper northern Thailand. The analyses were focused on meteorological variables that potentially impact on the regional air quality such as sea level pressure, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), surface temperature, wind speed and ventilation. Comparisons were made between the present (1990–2009) and future (2045–2064) climate downscaling results during majority air pollution season (dry season, January-April). Analyses showed that the sea level pressure will be stronger in the future, suggesting more stable atmosphere. Increases in temperature were obvious observed throughout the region. Decreases in surface wind and PBLH were predicted during air pollution season, indicating weaker ventilation rate in this region. Consequently, air quality-related meteorological variables were predicted to change in almost part of the upper northern Thailand, yielding a favorable meteorological condition for pollutant accumulation in the future.

Keywords: climate change, climate impact, air quality, air pollution, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

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In 2016, Clements, Hurn, and Li proposed a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting, reporting an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.36% on an 11-years dataset for the Queensland region in Australia. We present an adaptation of their model to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province in Canada. More precisely, we take into account two additional meteorological variables — cloudiness and wind speed — on top of temperature, as well as the use of multiple meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. We also consider other minor improvements. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1:79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Slim Amami

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A model is developed to prevent the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a farmer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is mainly based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By a simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is deduced from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. Optimal premium is then deduced, and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect their harvest. The application to wheat production in the French Oise department illustrates the reliability of the present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost every agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, database, meteorological factors, production model, optimal price

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Laidi Maamar, Hanini Salah

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The present work investigates the potential of artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the horizontal global solar radiation (HGSR). The ANN is developed and optimized using three years meteorological database from 2011 to 2013 available at the meteorological station of Blida (Blida 1 university, Algeria, Latitude 36.5°, Longitude 2.81° and 163 m above mean sea level). Optimal configuration of the ANN model has been determined by minimizing the Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and maximizing the correlation coefficient (R2) between observed and predicted data with the ANN model. To select the best ANN architecture, we have conducted several tests by using different combinations of parameters. A two-layer ANN model with six hidden neurons has been found as an optimal topology with (RMSE=4.036 W/m²) and (R²=0.999). A graphical user interface (GUI), was designed based on the best network structure and training algorithm, to enhance the users’ friendliness application of the model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, global solar radiation, solar energy, prediction, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 471

Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

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Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: scaffolding, health and safety at work, temperature, wind velocity

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Nadia Nisar

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Background: In the temperate regions Influenza activities occur sporadically all year round with peaks coinciding during cold months. Meteorological and environmental conditions play significant role in the transmission of influenza globally. In this study, we assessed the relationship between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in two geographical areas of Pakistan. Methods: Influenza data were collected from Islamabad (north) and Multan (south) regions of national influenza surveillance system during 2010-2015. Meteorological database was obtained from National Climatic Data Center (Pakistan). Logistic regression model with a stepwise approach was used to explore the relationship between meteorological parameters with influenza peaks. In statistical model, we used the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples to represent Influenza activity with metrological parameters as the covariates (temperature, humidity and precipitation). We also evaluate the link between environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: 'cold-dry' and 'humid-rainy'. Results: We found that temperature and humidity was positively associated with influenza in north and south both locations (OR = 0.927 (0.88-0.97)) & (OR = 0.1.078 (1.027-1.132)) and (OR = 1.023 (1.008-1.037)) & (OR = 0.978 (0.964-0.992)) respectively, whilst precipitation was negatively associated with influenza (OR = 1.054 (1.039-1.070)) & (OR = 0.949 (0.935-0.963)). In both regions, temperature and humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to the precipitation. We revealed that the p-value for all of climate parameters is <0.05 by Independent-sample t-test. These results demonstrate that there were significant relationships between climate factors and influenza infection with correlation coefficients: 0.52-0.90. The total contribution of these three climatic variables accounted for 89.04%. The reported number of influenza cases increased sharply during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. Conclusion: Our findings showed that measures of temperature, humidity and cold-dry season (winter) can be used as indicators to forecast influenza infections. Therefore integrating meteorological parameters for influenza forecasting in the surveillance system may benefit the public health efforts in reducing the burden of seasonal influenza. More studies are necessary to understand the role of these parameters in the viral transmission and host susceptibility process.

Keywords: influenza, climate, metrological, environmental

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

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The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Ayoub Moufid, Najib Bennis, Soumia El Hani

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The objective of greenhouse climate control is to improve the culture development and to minimize the production costs. A greenhouse is an open system to external environment and the challenge is to regulate the internal climate despite the strong meteorological disturbances. The internal state of greenhouse considered in this work is defined by too relevant and coupled variables, namely inside temperature and hygrometry. These two variables are chosen to describe the internal state of greenhouses due to their importance in the development of plants and their sensitivity to external climatic conditions, sources of weather disturbances. A multivariable model is proposed and validated by considering a greenhouse as black-box system and the least square method is applied to parameters identification basing on collected experimental measures. To regulate the internal climate, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme. This one considers the measured meteorological disturbances and the physical and operational constraints on the control and state variables. A successful feasibility study of the proposed controller is presented, and simulation results show good performances despite the high interaction between internal and external variables and the strong external meteorological disturbances. The inside temperature and hygrometry are tracking nearly the desired trajectories. A comparison study with an On/Off control applied to the same greenhouse confirms the efficiency of the MPC approach to inside climate control.

Keywords: climate control, constraints, identification, greenhouse, model predictive control, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Flavia Cordeiro, Fabio Silva, Alvaro Eiras, Jose Luiz Acebal

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Aedes aegypti is present in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world and is a vector of several diseases such as dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya, zika etc. The growth in the number of arboviruses cases in the last decades became a matter of great concern worldwide. Meteorological factors like mean temperature and precipitation are known to influence the infestation by the species through effects on physiology and ecology, altering the fecundity, mortality, lifespan, dispersion behaviour and abundance of the vector. Models able to describe the dynamics of the vector population size should then take into account the meteorological variables. The relationship between meteorological factors and the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti adult females are studied to provide a good set of predictors to model the dynamics of the mosquito population size. The time-series data of capture of adult females of a public health surveillance program from the city of Lavras, MG, Brazil had its association with precipitation, humidity and temperature analysed through a set of statistical methods for time series analysis commonly adopted in Signal Processing, Information Theory and Neuroscience. Cross-correlation, multicollinearity test and whitened cross-correlation were applied to determine in which time lags would occur the influence of meteorological variables on the dynamics of the mosquito abundance. Among the findings, the studied case indicated strong collinearity between humidity and precipitation, and precipitation was selected to form a pair of descriptors together with temperature. In the techniques used, there were observed significant associations between infestation indicators and both temperature and precipitation in short, mid and long terms, evincing that those variables should be considered in entomological models and as public health indicators. A descriptive model used to test the results exhibits a strong correlation to data.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, cross-correlation, multicollinearity, meteorological variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Linta Rose, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Water-level information along the coast is very important for disaster management, navigation, planning shoreline management, coastal engineering and protection works, port and harbour activities, and for a better understanding of near-shore ocean dynamics. The water-level variation along a coast attributes from various factors like astronomical tides, meteorological and hydrological forcing. The study area is the Head Bay of Bengal which is highly vulnerable to flooding events caused by monsoons, cyclones and sea-level rise. The study aims to explore the extent to which wind and surface pressure can influence water-level elevation, in view of the low-lying topography of the coastal zones in the region. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model has been customized for the Head Bay of Bengal, discretized using flexible finite elements and validated against tide gauge observations. Monthly mean climatological wind and mean sea level pressure fields of ERA Interim reanalysis data was used as input forcing to simulate water-level variation in the Head Bay of Bengal, in addition to tidal forcing. The output water-level was compared against that produced using tidal forcing alone, so as to quantify the contribution of meteorological forcing to water-level. The average contribution of meteorological fields to water-level in January is 5.5% at a deep-water location and 13.3% at a coastal location. During the month of July, when the monsoon winds are strongest in this region, this increases to 10.7% and 43.1% respectively at the deep-water and coastal locations. The model output was tested by varying the input conditions of the meteorological fields in an attempt to quantify the relative significance of wind speed and wind direction on water-level. Under uniform wind conditions, the results showed a higher contribution of meteorological fields for south-west winds than north-east winds, when the wind speed was higher. A comparison of the spectral characteristics of output water-level with that generated due to tidal forcing alone showed additional modes with seasonal and annual signatures. Moreover, non-linear monthly mode was found to be weaker than during tidal simulation, all of which point out that meteorological fields do not cause much effect on the water-level at periods less than a day and that it induces non-linear interactions between existing modes of oscillations. The study signifies the role of meteorological forcing under fair weather conditions and points out that a combination of multiple forcing fields including tides, wind, atmospheric pressure, waves, precipitation and river discharge is essential for efficient and effective forecast modelling, especially during extreme weather events.

Keywords: ADCIRC, head Bay of Bengal, mean sea level pressure, meteorological forcing, water-level, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Jackson Simon Lusagalika, Lai Hsin-Chih, Dai Yu-Tung

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Particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 meters or less are referred to as "fine particulate matter" (PM₂.₅) are easily inhaled and can go deeper into the lungs than other particles in the atmosphere, where it may have detrimental health consequences. In this study, we use a hybrid model that combined CMAQ and AERMOD as well as initial meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of power plant PM₂.₅ emissions in South Taiwan since it frequently experiences higher PM₂.₅ levels. A specific date of March 3, 2022, was chosen as a result of a power outage that prompted the bulk of power plants to shut down. In some way, it is not conceivable anywhere in the world to turn off the power for the sole purpose of doing research. Therefore, this catastrophe involving a power outage and the shutdown of power plants offers a great occasion to evaluate the impact of air pollution driven by this power sector. As a result, four numerical experiments were conducted in the study using the Continuous Emission Data System (CEMS), assuming that the power plants continued to function normally after the power outage. The hybrid model results revealed that power plants have a minor impact in the study region. However, we examined the accumulation of PM₂.₅ in the study and discovered that once the vortex at 925hPa was established and moved to the north of Taiwan's coast, the study region experienced higher observed PM₂.₅ concentrations influenced by meteorological factors. This study recommends that decision-makers take into account not only control techniques, specifically emission reductions, but also the atmospheric and meteorological implications for future investigations.

Keywords: PM₂.₅ concentration, powerplants, hybrid air quality model, CEMS, Vorticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: K. D. Sharma, M. Parida, S. S. Jain, Anju Saini, V. K. Katiyar

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Air quality models form one of the most important components of an urban air quality management plan. Various statistical modeling techniques (regression, multiple regression and time series analysis) have been used to predict air pollution concentrations in the urban environment. These models calculate pollution concentrations due to observed traffic, meteorological and pollution data after an appropriate relationship has been obtained empirically between these parameters. Artificial neural network (ANN) is increasingly used as an alternative tool for modeling the pollutants from vehicular traffic particularly in urban areas. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to model traffic air pollution, specifically CO concentration using neural networks. In case of CO concentration, two scenarios were considered. First, with only classified traffic volume input and the second with both classified traffic volume and meteorological variables. The results showed that CO concentration can be predicted with good accuracy using artificial neural network (ANN).

Keywords: air quality management, artificial neural network, meteorological variables, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 488

Authors: B. S. Fatoyinbo, D. Stretch, O. T. Amoo, D. Allopi

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This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.

Keywords: catchment characteristics model, GIS, synthetic data, ungauged basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Ellen Nhedzi Gozo

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Unavailability of adequate hydro-meteorological data has always limited the analysis and understanding of hydrological behaviour of several dam catchments including Mazowe Dam in Zimbabwe. The problem of insufficient data for Mazowe Dam catchment analysis was solved by extracting catchment characteristics and aerial hydro-meteorological data from ASTER, LANDSAT, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission SRTM remote sensing (RS) images using ILWIS, ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine geographic information systems (GIS) software. Available observed hydrological as well as meteorological data complemented the use of the remotely sensed information. Ground truth land cover was mapped using a Garmin Etrex global positioning system (GPS) system. This information was then used to validate land cover classification detail that was obtained from remote sensing images. A bathymetry survey was conducted using a SONAR system connected to GPS. Hydrological modelling using the HBV model was then performed to simulate the hydrological process of the catchment in an effort to verify the reliability of the derived parameters. The model output shows a high Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient that is close to 1 indicating that the parameters derived from remote sensing and GIS can be applied with confidence in the analysis of Mazowe Dam catchment.

Keywords: geographic information systems, hydrological modelling, remote sensing, water resources management

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Goksel Ezgi Guzey, Bihrat Onoz

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The scarcity of streamflow gauging stations and the increasing effects of global warming cause designing water management systems to be very difficult. This study is a significant contribution to assessing regional regression models for estimating streamflow. In this study, simulated meteorological data was related to the observed streamflow data from 1971 to 2020 for 33 stream gauging stations of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Ordinary least squares regression was used to predict flow for 2020-2100 with the simulated meteorological data. CORDEX- EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were used with 0.11 and 0.22 grids, respectively, to estimate climate conditions under certain climate scenarios. Twelve meteorological variables simulated by two regional climate models, RCA4 and RegCM4, were used as independent variables in the ordinary least squares regression, where the observed streamflow was the dependent variable. The variability of streamflow was then calculated with 5-6 meteorological variables and watershed characteristics such as area and height prior to the application. Of the regression analysis of 31 stream gauging stations' data, the stations were subjected to a clustering analysis, which grouped the stations in two clusters in terms of their hydrometeorological properties. Two streamflow equations were found for the two clusters of stream gauging stations for every domain and every regional climate model, which increased the efficiency of streamflow estimation by a range of 10-15% for all the models. This study underlines the importance of homogeneity of a region in estimating streamflow not only in terms of the geographical location but also in terms of the meteorological characteristics of that region.

Keywords: hydrology, streamflow estimation, climate change, hydrologic modeling, HBV, hydropower

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Hiba Hamdi, Thomas Corpetti, Laure Roupioz, Xavier Briottet

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Air temperatures are generally higher in cities than in their rural surroundings. The overheating of cities is a direct consequence of increasing urbanization, characterized by the artificial filling of soils, the release of anthropogenic heat, and the complexity of urban geometry. This phenomenon, referred to as urban heat island (UHI), is more prevalent during heat waves, which have increased in frequency and intensity in recent years. In the context of global warming and urban population growth, helping urban planners implement UHI mitigation and adaptation strategies is critical. In practice, the study of UHI requires air temperature information at the street canyon level, which is difficult to obtain. Many urban air temperature simulation models have been proposed (mostly based on physics or statistics), all of which require a variety of input parameters related to urban morphology, land use, material properties, or meteorological conditions. In this paper, we build and evaluate a neural network model based on Urban Weather Generator (UWG) model simulations and data from meteorological stations that simulate air temperature over Toulouse, France, on days favourable to UHI.

Keywords: air temperature, neural network model, urban heat island, urban weather generator

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Stefano M. Spagocci

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The efficiency of photovoltaic panels can be calculated with such software packages as RETScreen that allow design engineers to take financial as well as technical considerations into account. RETScreen is interfaced with meteorological databases, so that efficiency calculations can be realistically carried out. The author has recently contributed to the development of solar modules with accumulation capability and an embedded water purifier, aimed at off-grid users such as users in developing countries. The software packages examined do not allow to take ancillary equipment into account, hence the decision to implement a technical and financial model of the system. The author realized that, rather than re-implementing the quite sophisticated model of RETScreen - a mathematical description of which is anyway not publicly available - it was possible to drastically simplify it, including the meteorological factors which, in RETScreen, are presented in a numerical form. The day-by-day efficiency of a photovoltaic solar panel was parametrized by the product of factors expressing, respectively, daytime duration, solar right ascension motion, solar declination motion, cloudiness, temperature. For the sun-motion-dependent factors, positional astronomy formulae, simplified by the author, were employed. Meteorology-dependent factors were fitted by simple trigonometric functions, employing numerical data supplied by RETScreen. The accuracy of our model was tested by comparing it to the predictions of RETScreen; the accuracy obtained was 11%. In conclusion, our study resulted in a model that can be easily implemented in a spreadsheet - thus being easily manageable by non-specialist personnel - or in more sophisticated software packages. The model was used in a number of design exercises, concerning photovoltaic solar panels and ancillary equipment like the above-mentioned water purifier.

Keywords: clean energy, energy engineering, mathematical modelling, photovoltaic panels, solar energy

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Authors: Houcine Naim, Abdelatif Hassini, Noureddine Benabadji, Alex Van Den Bossche

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In this paper, two models to estimate the overall monthly average daily radiation on a horizontal surface were applied to the site of Oran (35.38 ° N, 0.37 °W). We present a comparison between the first one is a regression equation of the Angstrom type and the second model is developed by the present authors some modifications were suggested using as input parameters: the astronomical parameters as (latitude, longitude, and altitude) and meteorological parameters as (relative humidity). The comparisons are made using the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE), and mean absolute bias error (MABE). This comparison shows that the second model is closer to the experimental values that the model of Angstrom.

Keywords: meteorology, global radiation, Angstrom model, Oran

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Authors: Chiang Wei, Hui-Chung Yeh, Yen-Chang Chen

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to estimate the rainfall using the new generation Himawari-8 meteorological satellite with multi-band, high-bit format, and high spatiotemporal resolution, ground rainfall data at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed of Joushuei River Basin (443.6 square kilometers) in Central Taiwan. Accurate and fine-scale rainfall information is essential for rugged terrain with high local variation for early warning of flood, landslide, and debris flow disasters. 10-minute and 2 km pixel-based rainfall of Typhoon Megi of 2016 and meiyu on June 1-4 of 2017 were tested to demonstrate the new generation Himawari-8 meteorological satellite can capture rainfall variation in the rugged mountainous area both at fine-scale and watershed scale. The results provide the valuable rainfall information for early warning of future disasters.

Keywords: estimation, Himawari-8, rainfall, satellite imagery

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Muhammad Abid

Abstract:

In this study, we performed the comparative exergetic and exergoeconomic analyses of a wind turbine over a period of twelve months from 1st January to 30th December 2011. The turbine is part of a wind-PV hybrid system with hydrogen storage, located on the roof of Mechanical Engineering Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The rated power output from this turbine is 1.7 W with a rated wind speed of 12 m/s and cut-in/cut-out wind speeds of 3/14 m/s. We utilize a wide range of experimental data in the analysis and assessment. We determine exergy efficiencies and their relation with meteorological variables, such as temperature and density. We also calculate exergoeconomic parameter R ̇_ex and its dependence on the temperature, using the average values for twelve months of the year considered for comparison purposes. The exergy efficiency changes from 0.12 to 0.31 while the density varies between 1.31 and 1.2 kg/m3 for different temperature values. The R ̇_ex has minimum and maximum values of 0.02 and 0.81, respectively, while the temperature is in the range of 8-24°C for various wind velocity values.

Keywords: exergy, efficiency, renewable energy, wind energy, meteorological variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Ramiz M. Shubbar, Dong In Lee, Hatem A. Gzar, Arthur S. Rood

Abstract:

Air pollution is one of the biggest environmental problems in Baghdad, Iraq. The Daura refinery located nearest the center of Baghdad, represents the largest industrial area, which transmits enormous amounts of pollutants, therefore study the gaseous pollutants and particulate matter are very important to the environment and the health of the workers in refinery and the people whom leaving in areas around the refinery. Actually, some studies investigated the studied area before, but it depended on the basic Gaussian equation in a simple computer programs, however, that kind of work at that time is very useful and important, but during the last two decades new largest production units were added to the Daura refinery such as, PU_3 (Power unit_3 (Boiler 11&12)), CDU_1 (Crude Distillation unit_70000 barrel_1), and CDU_2 (Crude Distillation unit_70000 barrel_2). Therefore, it is necessary to use new advanced model to study air pollution at the region for the new current years, and calculation the monthly emission rate of pollutants through actual amounts of fuel which consumed in production unit, this may be lead to accurate concentration values of pollutants and the behavior of dispersion or transport in study area. In this study to the best of author’s knowledge CALPUFF model was used and examined for first time in Iraq. CALPUFF is an advanced non-steady-state meteorological and air quality modeling system, was applied to investigate the pollutants concentration of SO2, NO2, CO, and PM1-10μm, at areas adjacent to Daura refinery which located in the center of Baghdad in Iraq. The CALPUFF modeling system includes three main components: CALMET is a diagnostic 3-dimensional meteorological model, CALPUFF (an air quality dispersion model), CALPOST is a post processing package, and an extensive set of preprocessing programs produced to interface the model to standard routinely available meteorological and geophysical datasets. The targets of this work are modeling and simulation the four pollutants (SO2, NO2, CO, and PM1-10μm) which emitted from Daura refinery within one year. Emission rates of these pollutants were calculated for twelve units includes thirty plants, and 35 stacks by using monthly average of the fuel amount consumption at this production units. Assess the performance of CALPUFF model in this study and detect if it is appropriate and get out predictions of good accuracy compared with available pollutants observation. CALPUFF model was investigated at three stability classes (stable, neutral, and unstable) to indicate the dispersion of the pollutants within deferent meteorological conditions. The simulation of the CALPUFF model showed the deferent kind of dispersion of these pollutants in this region depends on the stability conditions and the environment of the study area, monthly, and annual averages of pollutants were applied to view the dispersion of pollutants in the contour maps. High values of pollutants were noticed in this area, therefore this study recommends to more investigate and analyze of the pollutants, reducing the emission rate of pollutants by using modern techniques and natural gas, increasing the stack height of units, and increasing the exit gas velocity from stacks.

Keywords: CALPUFF, daura refinery, Iraq, pollutants

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

Abstract:

Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safety navigation of ships

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Jelena Bašić, Višnjica Vučetić, Mislav Anić, Tomislav Bašić

Abstract:

Lack of precipitation combined with high temperatures causes great damage to the agriculture and economy in Croatia. Therefore, it is important to understand water circulation and balance. We decided to gain a better insight into the spatial distribution of water balance components (WBC) and their long-term changes in Croatia. WBC are precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture content (S), runoff (RO), recharge (R), and soil moisture loss (L). Since measurements of the mentioned components in Croatia are very rare, the Palmer model has been applied to estimate them. We refined method by setting into the account the corrective factor to include influence effects of the wind as well as a maximum soil capacity for specific soil types. We will present one hundred years’ time series of PET and ET showing the trends at few meteorological stations and a comparison of components of two climatological periods. The meteorological data from 109 stations have been used for the spatial distribution map of the WBC of Croatia.

Keywords: croatia, long-term trends, the palmer method, water balance components

Procedia PDF Downloads 109