Search results for: total error rate

Authors: Abdulsalam M. Alhawsawi

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Estimation of a radiation detector's efficiency plays a significant role in calculating the activity of radioactive samples. Detector efficiency is measured using sources that emit a variety of energies from low to high-energy photons along the energy spectrum. Some photon energies are hard to find in lab settings either because check sources are hard to obtain or the sources have short half-lives. This work aims to develop a method to determine the efficiency of a High Purity Germanium Detector (HPGe) based on the 662 keV gamma ray photon emitted from Cs-137. Cesium-137 is readily available in most labs with radiation detection and health physics applications and has a long half-life of ~30 years. Several photon efficiencies were calculated using the MCNP5 simulation code. The simulated efficiency of the 662 keV photon was used as a base to calculate other photon efficiencies in a point source and a Marinelli Beaker form. In the Marinelli Beaker filled with water case, the efficiency of the 59 keV low energy photons from Am-241 was estimated with a 9% error compared to the MCNP5 simulated efficiency. The 1.17 and 1.33 MeV high energy photons emitted by Co-60 had errors of 4% and 5%, respectively. The estimated errors are considered acceptable in calculating the activity of unknown samples as they fall within the 95% confidence level.

Keywords: MCNP5, MonteCarlo simulations, efficiency calculation, absolute efficiency, activity estimation, Cs-137

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Authors: Joseph Bostick

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A method of decreasing the heating load of HVAC systems in a single-dwelling model of a multifamily building, by controlling movable insulation through the optimization of flux, time, surface incident solar radiation, and temperature thresholds. Simulations are completed using a co-simulation between EnergyPlus and MATLAB as an optimization tool to find optimal control thresholds. Optimization of the control thresholds leads to a significant decrease in total heating energy expenditure.

Keywords: energy plus, MATLAB, simulation, energy efficiency

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Authors: Abhijeet Ostawal, Parmjit Lall

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The run times for a large strategic model that we were managing had become too long leading to delays in project delivery, increased costs and loss in productivity. Software developers are continuously working towards developing more efficient tools by changing their algorithms and processes. The issue faced by our team was how do you apply the latest technologies on validated existing models which are based on much older versions of software that do not have the latest software capabilities. The multi-model transport model that we had could only be run in sequential assignment order. Recent upgrades to the software now allowed the assignment to be run in parallel, a concept called parallelization. Parallelization is a Python script working only within the latest version of the software. A full model transfer to the latest version was not possible due to time, budget and the potential changes in trip assignment. This article is to show the method to adapt and update the Python script in such a way that it can be used in older software versions by calling the latest version and then recalling the old version for assignment model without affecting the results. Through a process of trial-and-error run time savings of up to 30-40% have been achieved. Assignment results were maintained within the older version and through this learning process we’ve applied this methodology to other even older versions of the software resulting in huge time savings, more productivity and efficiency for both client and consultant.

Keywords: model run time, demand model, parallelisation, python scripting

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Authors: Ana C. Sousa, Beatriz C. Santos, Fátima N. Serralha

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The Tagus estuary is heavily affected by industrial and urban activities, making bioremediation studies crucial for environmental preservation. Fuel contamination in the area can arise from various anthropogenic sources, such as oil spills from shipping, fuel storage and transfer operations, and industrial discharges. These pollutants can cause severe harm to the ecosystem and the organisms, including humans, that inhabit it. Nonetheless, there are always natural organisms with the ability to resist these pollutants and transform them into non-toxic or harmless substances, which defines the process of bioremediation. Exploring the microbial communities existing in soil and their capacity to break down hydrocarbons has the potential to enhance the development of more efficient bioremediation approaches. The aim of this investigation was to explore the existence of hydrocarbonoclastic microorganisms in six locations within the Tagus estuary, three on the north bank: Trancão River, Praia Fluvial do Cais das Colinas and Praia de Algés, and three on the south bank: Praia Fluvial de Alcochete, Praia Fluvial de Alburrica, and Praia da Trafaria. In all studied locations, native microorganisms of the genus Pseudomonas were identified. The bioremediation rate of common hydrocarbons like gasoline, hexane, and toluene was assessed using the redox indicator 2,6-dichlorophenolindophenol (DCPIP). Effective hydrocarbon-degrading bacterial strains were identified in all analyzed areas, despite adverse environmental conditions. The highest bioremediation rates were achieved for gasoline (68%) in Alburrica, hexane (65%) in Algés, and toluene (79%) in Algés. Generally, the bacteria demonstrated efficient degradation of hydrocarbons added to the culture medium, with higher rates of aerobic biodegradation of hydrocarbons observed. These findings underscore the necessity for further in situ studies to better comprehend the relationship between native microbial communities and the potential for pollutant degradation in soil.

Keywords: biodegradability rate, hydrocarbonoclastic microorganisms, soil bioremediation, tagus estuary

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Authors: Faruk Guven, Nurtekin Erkmen, Samet Aktas, Cengiz Taskin

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The aim of this study was to determine effects of field sizes on technical parameters of small-sided games in football players. Eight amateur football players (27.23±3.08 years, heigth: 171.01±5.36 cm, body weigth: 66.86±4.54 kg, sports experience: 12.88±3.28 years) performed 4-a-side small-sided games (SSG) with different field sizes. In SSGs, field sizes were 30 x 40 m and 26 mx24 m. SSGs was conducted as a series of 3 bouts of 6 min with 5 min recovery durations. All SSGs were video recorded using two digital video camcorder positioned on a tripot. Shoot on taget, passes, succesful passes, unsuccesful passes, dripling, tackle, possession in SSGs were counted by Mathball Match Analysis System. The effects of bouts on technical score were examined separately using a Friedman’s test. Mann Whitney U test was applied to analyse differences between field sizes. There were no significant differences in shoots on target, total pass, successful pass, tackle, interception, possession between bouts in 30x40 m field size (p>0.05). Unsuccessful pass in bout 3 for 30x40 m field size was lower than bout 1 and bout 2 (p<0.05) and dripling in bout 3 was lower than bout 2 (p<0.05). There was no significant difference in technical actions between bouts for 26x34 m field size (p>0.05). Shoot on target in SSG with 26 x 34 m field size was higher than SSG with 30x40 m field size (p<0.05). Unsuccessful pass for 26x34 m field size in bout 3 was higher than SSG with 30x40 m field size (p<0.05). There was no significant difference in technical actions between field sizes (p>0.05). In conclusion; in this study demonstrates that technical actions in a-4-side SSG are not influenced by different field sizes (for 30x40 m and 26x34 m field sizes). This consequence is same for both total SSG time and each bout. Dripling and unsuccessful pass decrease in bout 3 during SSG in 30 x 40 m field size.

Keywords: small-sided games, football, technical actions, sport science

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Authors: Mohammad Taghi Karbalaei Aghamolki, Mohd Khanif Yusop, Fateh Chand Oad, Hamed Zakikhani, Hawa Zee Jaafar, Sharifh Kharidah, Mohamed Hanafi Musa, Shahram Soltani

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The high temperatures during sensitive growth phases are changing rice morphology as well as influencing yield. In the glass house study, the treatments were: growing conditions [normal growing (32oC+2) and heat stress (38oC+2) day time and 22oC+2 night time], growth stages (booting, flowering and ripening) and four cultivars (Hovaze, Hashemi, Fajr, as exotic and MR219 as indigenous). The heat chamber was prepared covered with plastic, and automatic heater was adjusted at 38oC+2 (day) and 22oC+2 (night) for two weeks in every growth stages. Rice morphological and yield under the influence of heat stress during various growth stages showed taller plants in Hashsemi due to its tall character. The total tillers per hill were significantly higher in Fajr receiving heat stress during booting stage. In all growing conditions and growth stages, Hashemi recorded higher panicle exertion and flag leaf length. The flag leaf width in all situations was found higher in Hovaze. The total tillers per hill were more in Fajr, although heat stress was imposed during booting and flowering stages. The indigenous MR219 in all situations of growing conditions, growth stages recorded higher grain yield. However, its grain yield slightly decreased when heat stress was imposed during booting and flowering. Similar results were found in all other exotic cultivars recording to lower grain yield in the heat stress condition during booting and flowering. However, plants had no effect on heat stress during ripening stage.

Keywords: rice, growth, heat, temperature, stress, morphology, yield

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Authors: Nabeeha Hassan Abdel Jalil, Robert Barigye, Hamda Al Alawi, Afra Al Dhaheri, Fatma Graiban Al Muhairi, Maryam Al Khateri, Nouf Al Alalawi, Susan Olet, Khaja Mohteshamuddin, Ahmad Al Aiyan, Mohamed Elfatih Hamad

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A serological survey was carried out to determine the seroprevalence of Brucella spp, Coxiella burnetii, Chlamydophila abortus, and Toxoplasma gondii in sheep and goat herds in the UAE. A total of 915 blood samples [n= 222, [sheep]; n= 215, [goats]) were collected from livestock farms in the Emirates of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah and Ras Al-Khaimah (RAK). An additional 478 samples (n= 244, [sheep]; n= 234, (goats]) were collected from the Al Ain livestock central market and tested by indirect ELISA for pathogen-specific antibodies with the Brucella antibodies being further corroborated by the Rose-Bengal agglutination test. Seropositivity for the four pathogens is variably documented in sheep and goats from the study area. Respectively, the overall livestock farm prevalence rates for Brucella spp, C. burnetii, C. abortus, and T. gondii were 2.7%, 27.9%, 8.1%, and 16.7% for sheep, and 0.0%, 31.6%, 9.3%, and 5.1% for goats. Additionally, the seroprevalence rates Brucella spp, C. burnetii, C. abortus, and T. gondii in samples from the livestock market were 7.4%, 21.7%, 16.4%, and 7.0% for sheep, and 0.9%, 32.5%, 19.2%, and 11.1% for goats respectively. Overall, sheep had 12.59 more chances than goats of testing seropositive for Brucella spp (OR, 12.59 [95% CI 2.96-53.6]) but less likely to be positive for C. burnetii-antibodies (OR, 0.73 [95% CI 0.54-0.97]). Notably, the differences in the seroprevalence rates of C. abortus and T. gondii in sheep and goats were not statistically significant (p > 0.0500). The present data indicate that all the four study pathogens are present in sheep and goat populations in the UAE where coxiellosis is apparently the most seroprevalent followed by chlamydophilosis, toxoplasmosis, and brucellosis. While sheep from the livestock market were more likely than those from farms to be Brucella-seropositive than those, the overall exposure risk of C. burnetii appears to be greater for goats than sheep. As more animals from the livestock market were more likely to be seropositive to Chlamydophila spp, it is possible that under the UAE animal production conditions, at least, coxiellosis and chlamydophilosis are more likely to increase the culling rate of domesticated small ruminants than toxoplasmosis and brucellosis. While anecdotal reports have previously insinuated that brucellosis may be a significant animal health risk in the UAE, the present data suggest C. burnetii, C. abortus and T. gondii to be more significant pathogens of sheep and goats in the country. Despite this possibility, the extent to which these pathogens may nationally be contributing to reproductive failure in sheep and goat herds is not known and needs to be investigated. Potentially, these agents may also carry a potentially zoonotic risk that needs to be investigated in risk groups like farm workers, and slaughter house personnel. An ongoing study is evaluating the seroprevalence of bovine coxiellosis in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and the data thereof will further elucidate on the broader epidemiological dynamics of the disease in the national herd.

Keywords: Brucella spp, Chlamydophila abortus, goat, sheep, Toxoplasma gondii, UAE

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Authors: Debalke Dale, Bezabh Geneta, Yohannes Amene, Yordanos Bergene, Mohammed Yimam

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Background: A drug therapy problem (DTP) is an event or circumstance that involves drug therapies that actually or potentially interfere with the desired outcome and requires professional judgment to resolve. Heart failure is an emerging worldwide threat whose prevalence and health loss burden constantly increase, especially in the young and in low-to-middle-income countries. There is a lack of population-based incidence and prevalence of heart failure (HF) studies in sub-Saharan African countries, including Ethiopia. Objective: The aim of this study was designed to assess drug therapy problems and associated factors among patients with HF in the medical ward of Arba Minch General Hospital(AGH), Ethiopia, from June 5 to August 20, 2022. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 180 patients with HF who were admitted to the medical ward of AGH. Data were collected from patients' cards by using questionnaires. The data were categorized and analyzed by using SPSS version 25.0 software, and data were presented in tables and words based on the nature of the data. Result: Out of the total, 85 (57.6%) were females, and 113 (75.3%) patients were aged over fifty years. Of the 150 study participants, 86 (57.3%) patients had at least one DTP identified, and a total of 116 DTPs were identified, which is 0.77 DTPs per patient. The most common types of DTP were unnecessary drug therapy (32%), followed by the need for additional drug therapy (36%), and dose too low (15%). Patients who used polypharmacy were 5.86 (AOR) times more likely to develop DTPs than those who did not (95% CI = 1.625–16.536, P = 0.005), and patients with more co-morbid conditions developed 3.68 (AOR) times more DTPs than those who had fewer co-morbidities (95% CI = 1.28–10.5, P = 0.015). Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that drug therapy problems were common among medical ward patients with heart failure. These problems are adversely affecting the treatment outcomes of patients, so it requires the special attention of healthcare professionals to optimize them.

Keywords: heart failure, drug therapy problems, Arba Minch general hospital, Ethiopia

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Authors: Ambra Giovannelli, Erika Maria Archilei

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The electrical power consumption related to refrigeration systems is evaluated to be in the order of 15% of the total electricity consumption worldwide. For this reason, in the last years several energy saving techniques have been suggested to reduce the power demand of refrigeration and air conditioning plants. The research work deals with the development of an innovative internal power recovery system for industrial cryogenic cooling plants. Such system is based on a Compressor-Expander Group (CEG). Both the expander and the compressor have been designed starting from automotive turbocharging components, strongly modified to take refrigerant fluid properties and specific system requirements into consideration. A preliminary choice of the machines (radial compressors and expanders) among existing components available on the market was realised according to the rules of the similarity theory. Once the expander was selected, it was strongly modified and performance verified by means of steady-state 3D CFD simulations. This paper focuses the attention on the development of the second CEG main component: the compressor. Once the preliminary selection has been done, the compressor geometry has been modified to take the new boundary conditions into account. In particular, the impeller has been machined to address the required total enthalpy increase. Such evaluation has been carried out by means of a simplified 1D model. Moreover, a vaneless diffuser has been added, modifying the shape of casing rear and front disks. To verify the performance of the modified compressor geometry and suggest improvements, a numerical fluid dynamic model has been set up and the commercial Ansys-CFX software has been used to perform steady-state 3D simulations. In this work, all the numerical results will be shown, highlighting critical aspects and suggesting further developments to increase compressor performance and flexibility.

Keywords: vapour compression systems, energy saving, refrigeration plant, organic fluids, centrifugal compressor

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Authors: Jalal Fazli Amiri, Mohammad Hossein Shahir, Mohammad Hossein Nemati, Afshin Heidarinia

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The current study was performed to investigate the effects of arginine, threonine, and glutamine supplementation in excess of requirements in the starter period (17 days) on performance, intestinal morphology, and immune response of broilers. Four hundred and sixteen male day-old chicks were assigned in a 2×2×2 factorial arrangement to a completely randomized design with four replicates (13 birds per replicate ). Treatments were: a control group that received the basal diet, basal diet plus 1% glutamine, basal diet plus 0.2% threonine, basal diet plus 0.75 % arginine, and combination of these three amino acids (glutamine+arginine, glutamine+threonine, arginine+threonine and arginine+ glutamine+threonine). The effect of glutamine supplementation on feed intake was significant in week 4 (p < 0.05), week 6 (p < 0.001), and total feed intake (p < 0.05) and caused declined feed intake. No significant differences of glutamine addition were observed on intestinal morphology (villi height, crypt depth, villi height to crypt depth ratio, villi width). Threonine supplementation caused increased weight gain in week 2 (p < 0.001) and 3 and a decrease of total feed intake (p < 0.05). Duodenum and jejunum villi height, crypt depth, villi height to crypt depth ratio, villi width were not affected. The effect of arginine supplementation was the increase of breast percentage (p < 0.05) and a decrease of jejunum villi high (p < 0.05) and Jejunum crypt depth (p < 0.05). Supplementation of arginine, threonine, and glutamine had no significant effects on blood titer of antibodies against Newcastle disease, infectious bronchitis, avian influenza. Overall, it seems that the supplementation of arginine, threonine, and glutamine in excess of requirements in the starter period had no effect on performance in subsequent periods and intestinal morphology.

Keywords: intestinal morphology, immunity, broiler chickens, glutamine, arginine, threonine

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Authors: Ebuwa Osagie, Chet Biliyok, Yeung Hoi

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Regeneration energy requirement and ways to reduce it is the main aim of most CO2 capture researches currently being performed and thus, post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) option is identified to be the most suitable for the natural gas-fired power plants. From current research and development (R&D) activities worldwide, two main areas are being examined in order to reduce the regeneration energy requirement of amine-based PCC, namely: (a) development of new solvents with better overall performance than 30wt% monoethanolamine (MEA) aqueous solution, which is considered as the base-line solvent for solvent-based PCC, (b) Integration of the PCC Plant to the power plant. In scaling-up a PCC pilot plant to the size required for a commercial-scale natural gas-fired power plant, process modelling and simulation is very essential. In this work, an integrated process made up of a 482MWe natural gas-fired power plant, an MEA-based PCC plant which is developed and validated has been modelled and simulated. The PCC plant has four absorber columns and a single stripper column, the modelling and simulation was performed with Aspen Plus® V8.4. The gas turbine, the heat recovery steam generator and the steam cycle were modelled based on a 2010 US DOE report, while the MEA-based PCC plant was modelled as a rate-based process. The scaling of the amine plant was performed using a rate based calculation in preference to the equilibrium based approach for 90% CO2 capture. The power plant was integrated to the PCC plant in three ways: (i) flue gas stream from the power plant which is divided equally into four stream and each stream is fed into one of the four absorbers in the PCC plant. (ii) Steam draw-off from the IP/LP cross-over pipe in the steam cycle of the power plant used to regenerate solvent in the reboiler. (iii) Condensate returns from the reboiler to the power plant. The integration of a PCC plant to the NGCC plant resulted in a reduction of the power plant output by 73.56 MWe and the net efficiency of the integrated system is reduced by 7.3 % point efficiency. A secondary aim of this study is the parametric studies which have been performed to assess the impacts of natural gas on the overall performance of the integrated process and this is achieved through investigation of the capture efficiencies.

Keywords: natural gas-fired, power plant, MEA, CO2 capture, modelling, simulation

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Authors: Madhulika Pathak, Polani Seshagiri, Vani Venkatappa

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Blastocyst hatching is an indispensable process for successful implantation. One of the major reasons for implantation failure in IVF clinic is poor quality of embryo, which are not development/hatching-competent. Therefore, attempts are required to develop or enhance the culture system with a molecule recapitulating the autocrine/paracrine factors containing the environment of in-vivo endometrial milieu. We have tried to explore the functional molecules involved in the hamster hatching phenomenon. Blastocyst hatching is governed by several molecules that are entwined and regulate this process, among which cytokines are known to be expressed and are still least explored. Two of such cytokines we have used for our study are IL-1β and its natural antagonist IL-1ra to understand the functional dynamics of cytokines involved in the hatching process. Using hamster, an intriguing experimental model for hatching behavior, we have shown the mRNA (qPCR) and protein (ICC) expression of IL-1β, IL-1ra and IL-1 receptor type 1 throughout all the stages of morula, blastocyst and hatched blastocyst. Post-asserting the expression, the functional role is shown by supplementation studies, where IL-1β supplementation showed enhancement in hatching level (IL-1β treated: 84.1 ± 4.2% vs control: 63.7 ± 3.1 %, N=11), further confirmed by the diminishing effect of IL-1ra on hatching rate (IL-1ra treated: 27.5 ± 11.1% vs control: 67.9 ± 3.1%). The exogenous supplementation of IL-1ra decreased the survival rate of embryos and affected the viability in dose-dependent manner, establishing the importance of IL-1β in blastocyst cell survival. Previously, the cathepsin L and B were established as the proteases that were involved in the hamster hatching process. The inducing effect of IL-1β was correlated with enhanced mRNA level, as analyzed by qPCR, for both CAT L (by 1.9 ± 0.5 fold) and CAT B (by 3.5 ± 0.1) fold which was diminished in presence of IL-1ra (Cat L by 88 percent and Cat B by 94 percent. Moreover, using a specific fluorescent substrate-based assay kit, the enzymatic activity of these proteases was found to be increased in presence of IL-1β (Cat L by 2.1 ± 0.1 fold and CAT B by 2.3 ± 0.7 fold) and was curtailed in presence of IL-1ra. These observations provide functional insights with respect to the involvement of cytokines in the hatching process. This has implications in understanding the hatching biology and improving the embryo development quality in IVF clinics.

Keywords: Blastocyst, Cytokines, Hatching, Interleukin

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Authors: Maniyarasan Rajendran

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Every design has a process, and every architect deals in the ways best known to them. The design translation from the concept to completion change in accordance with their design philosophies, their tools, availability of resources, and at times the clients and the context of the design as well. The approach to understanding the design process requires formalisation of the design intents. The design process is characterised by change, with the time and the technology. The design flow is just indicative and never exhaustive. The knowledge and experience of stakeholders remain limited to the part they played in the project, and their ability to remember, and is through the Photographs. These artefacts, when circulated can hardly tell what the project is. They can never tell the narrative behind. In due course, the design processes are lost. The Design junctions are lost in the journey. Photographs acted as major source materials, along with its importance in architectural revivalism in the 19th century. From the history, we understand that it has been photographs, that act as the dominant source of evidence. The idea of recording is also followed with the idea of getting inspired from the records and documents. The design concept, the architectural firms’ philosophies, the materials used, the special needs, the numerous ‘Trial-and-error’ methods, design methodology, experience of failures and success levels, and the knowledge acquired, etc., and the various other aspects and methods go through in every project, and they deserve/ought to be recorded. The knowledge can be preserved and passed through generations, by documenting the design processes involved. This paper explores the idea of a process documentation as a tool of self-reflection, creation of architectural firm’ repository, and these implications proceed with the design evolution of the team.

Keywords: architecture, design, documentation, records

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Authors: Salwa Obeisat

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Obesity had become a global issue and a major public health concern, because of its impact on the public health. Obstetric and midwifery evidences reported that maternal obesity an important issue, because of its associated complications like obstructed labors, infections, and hemorrhage. People who are obese are often stigmatized and blamed for their weight. Health care providers are not immune to obesity-related prejudice, and the literature features several examples of their negative attitudes towards obese patients. In Jordan, few studies were conducted to investigate obesity prevalence rate and its associated factors. The purposes of this study were to assess the health care providers' attitudes toward overweight and obese women during the childbirth in the North of Jordan and to investigate the relationships between health care providers' socio-demographic characteristics and their attitudes. A descriptive, cross-sectional design was utilized. A convenient sample was consisted of 95 midwives, 30 nurses and 62 obstetricians, who were working in the labor rooms. A self-administered questionnaire consisted of three sections: demographical data, Arabic version of Fat Phobia Scale (FPS), and Arabic version of Nurses' Attitudes toward Obesity and Obese Patients Scale (NATOOPS). Results: The study findings revealed that the majority of Jordanian health care providers held negative attitudes toward overweight and obese women during childbirth. Midwives held less negative attitudes than did obstetricians and nurses. The majority of participants were perceived the overweight and obese pregnant women during childbirth as overate people, shapeless, slow and unattractive. Age, specialty, education and years of experience were found to be associated with health care providers’ attitudes. The Conclusion: Health care providers negative attitudes toward overweight and obese pregnant women are a cause for concern. Therefore, maternal obesity was needed to be more adequately addressed in basic education courses, and in the continuing professional education classes of practicing health care providers.

Keywords: attitudes, obesity, prevalence rate, nurses, midwives, obstetrician, childbirth

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Authors: Maia Kharadze, Indira Djaparidze, Maia Vanidze, Aleko Kalandia

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Modern scientific world studies chemical components and antioxidant activity of different kinds of vines according to their breed purity and location. To our knowledge, this kind of research has not been conducted in Georgia yet. The object of our research was to study Chkhaveri vine, which is included in the oldest varieties of the Black Sea basin vine. We have studied different-altitude Chkaveri grapes, juice, and wine (half dry rose-colored produced with European technologies) and their technical markers, qualitative and quantitive composition of their biologically active compounds and their antioxidant activity. We were determining the amount of phenols using Folin-Ciocalteu reagent, Flavonoids, Catechins and Anthocyanins using Spectral method and antioxidant activity using DPPH method. Several compounds were identified using –HPLC-UV-Vis, UPLC-MS methods. Six samples of Chkhaveri species– 5, 300, 360, 380, 400, 780 meter altitudes were taken and analyzed. The sample taken from 360 m altitude is distinguished by its cluster mass (383.6 grams) and high amount of sugar (20.1%). The sample taken from the five-meter altitude is distinguished by having high acidity (0.95%). Unlike other grapes varieties, such concentration of sugar and relatively low levels of citric acid ultimately leads to Chkhaveri wine individuality. Biologically active compounds of Chkhaveri were researched in 2014, 2015, 2016. The amount of total phenols in samples of 2016 fruit varies from 976.7 to 1767.0 mg/kg. Amount of Anthocians is 721.2-1630.2 mg/kg, and the amount of Flavanoids varies from 300.6 to 825.5 mg/kg. Relatively high amount of anthocyanins was found in the Chkhaveri at 780-meter altitude - 1630.2 mg/kg. Accordingly, the amount of Phenols and Flavanoids is high- 1767.9 mg/kg and 825.5 mg/kg. These characteristics are low in samples gathered from 5 meters above sea level, Anthocyanins-721.2 mg/ kg, total Phenols-976.7 mg/ kg, and Flavanoids-300.6 mg/kg. The highest amount of bioactive compounds can be found in the Chkhaveri samples of high altitudes because with rising height environment becomes harsh, the plant has to develop a better immune system using Phenolic compounds. The technology that is used for the production of wine also plays a huge role in the composition of the final product. Optimal techniques of maceration and ageing were worked out. While squeezing Chkhaveri, there are no anthocyanins in the juice. However, the amount of Anthocyanins rises during maceration. After the fermentation of dregs, the amount of anthocyanins is 55%, 521.3 gm/l, total Phenols 80% 1057.7 mg/l and Flavanoids 23.5 mg/l. Antioxidant activity of samples was also determined using the effect of 50% inhibition of the samples. All samples have high antioxidant activity. For instance, in samples at 780 meters above the sea-level antioxidant activity was 53.5%. It is relatively high compared to the sample at 5 m above sea-level with the antioxidant activity of 30.5%. Thus, there is a correlation between the amount Anthocyanins and antioxidant activity. The designated project has been fulfilled by financial support of the Georgia National Science Foundation (Grant AP/96/13, Grant 216816), Any idea in this publication is possessed by the author and may not represent the opinion of the Georgia National Science Foundation.

Keywords: antioxidants, bioactive content, wine, chkhaveri

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Authors: Maria Reznakova, Michala Strnadova, Lukas Reznak

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The global financial crisis that erupted in 2008 is associated mainly with the debt crisis. It quickly spread globally through financial markets, international banks and trade links, and affected many economic sectors. Measured by the index of the year-on-year change in GDP and industrial production, the consequences of the global financial crisis manifested themselves with some delay also in the Czech economy. This can be considered a result of the overwhelming export orientation of Czech industrial enterprises. These events offer an important opportunity to study how financial and macroeconomic instability affects corporate performance. Corporate performance factors have long been given considerable attention. It is therefore reasonable to ask whether the findings published in the past are also valid in the times of economic instability and subsequent recession. The decisive factor in effective corporate performance measurement is the existence of an appropriate system of indicators that are able to assess progress in achieving corporate goals. Performance measures may be based on non-financial as well as on financial information. In this paper, financial indicators are used in combination with other characteristics, such as the firm size and ownership structure. Financial performance is evaluated based on traditional performance indicators, namely, return on equity and return on assets, supplemented with indebtedness and current liquidity indices. As investments are a very important factor in corporate performance, their trends and importance were also investigated by looking at the ratio of investments to previous year’s sales and the rate of reinvested earnings. In addition to traditional financial performance indicators, the Economic Value Added was also used. Data used in the research were obtained from a questionnaire survey administered in industrial enterprises in the Czech Republic and from AMADEUS (Analyse Major Database from European Sources), from which accounting data of companies were obtained. Respondents were members of the companies’ senior management. Research results unequivocally confirmed that corporate performance dropped significantly in the 2010-2012 period, which can be considered a result of the global financial crisis and a subsequent economic recession. It was reflected mainly in the decreasing values of profitability indicators and the Economic Value Added. Although the total year-on-year indebtedness declined, intercompany indebtedness increased. This can be considered a result of impeded access of companies to bank loans due to the credit crunch. Comparison of the results obtained with the conclusions of previous research on a similar topic showed that the assumption that firms under foreign control achieved higher performance during the period investigated was not confirmed.

Keywords: corporate performance, foreign control, intercompany indebtedness, ratio of investment

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Authors: Vladimíra Čavojová, Eva Ballová Mikušková

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In this study we tried to replicate the unconscious thought advantage (UTA), which states that complex decisions are better handled by unconscious thinking. We designed an experiment in e-prime using similar material as the original study (choosing between four different apartments, each described by 12 attributes). A total of 73 participants (52 women (71.2%); 18 to 62 age: M=24.63; SD=8.7) took part in the experiment. We did not replicate the results suggested by UTT. However, from the present study we cannot conclude whether this was the case of flaws in the theory or flaws in our experiment and we discuss several ways in which the issue of UTA could be examined further.

Keywords: decision making, unconscious thoughts, UTT, complex decisions

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Authors: H. M. Zakir Hossain

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Cenozoic mudstone samples, obtained from drilled cored and outcrop in northeastern Bengal Basin of Bangladesh were organic geochemically analyzed to identify vertical variations of organic facies, thermal maturity, hydrocarbon potential and depositional environments. Total organic carbon (TOC) content ranges from 0.11 to 1.56 wt% with an average of 0.43 wt%, indicating a good source rock potential. Total sulphur content is variable with values ranging from ~0.001 to 1.75 wt% with an average of 0.065 wt%. Rock-Eval S1 and S2 yields range from 0.03 to 0.14 mg HC/g rock and 0.01 to 0.66 mg HC/g rock, respectively. The hydrogen index values range from 2.71 to 56.09 mg HC/g TOC. These results revealed that the samples are dominated by type III kerogene. Tmax values of 426 to 453 °C and vitrinite reflectance of 0.51 to 0.66% indicate the organic matter is immature to mature. Saturated hydrocarbon ratios such as pristane, phytane, steranes, and hopanes, indicate mostly terrigenous organic matter with small influence of marine organic matter. Organic matter in the succession was accumulated in three different environmental conditions based on the integration of biomarker proxies. First phase (late Eocene to early Miocene): Deposition occurred entirely in seawater-dominated oxic conditions, with high inputs of land plants organic matter including angiosperms. Second phase (middle to late Miocene): Deposition occurred in freshwater-dominated anoxic conditions, with phytoplanktonic organic matter and a small influence of land plants. Third phase (late Miocene to Pleistocene): Deposition occurred in oxygen-poor freshwater conditions, with abundant input of planktonic organic matter and high influx of angiosperms. The lower part (middle Eocene to early Miocene) of the succession with moderate TOC contents and primarily terrestrial organic matter could have generated some condensates and oils in and around the study area.

Keywords: Bangladesh, geochemistry, hydrocarbon potential, mudstone

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Authors: Fabio L. Vieira, Micaelle F. C. Lemos, Luciano C. Lemos, Rafaela S. Oliveira, Ian A. Cunha

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Brazil has some challenges ahead related to population oral health, most of them associated with the need of expanding into the local level its promotion and prevention activities, offer equal access to services and promote changes in the lifestyle of the population. The program implemented an oral health initiative in public schools in the city of Salvador, Bahia. The mission was to improve oral health among students on primary and secondary education, from 2 to 15 years old, using the school as a pathway to increase access to healthcare. The main actions consisted of a team's visit to the schools with educational sessions for dental cavity prevention and individual assessment. The program incorporated a clinical surveillance component through a dental evaluation of every student searching for dental disease and caries, standardization of the dentists’ team to reach uniform classification on the assessments, and the use of an online platform to register data directly from the schools. Sequentially, the students with caries were referred for free clinical treatment on the program’s Health Centre. The primary purpose of this study was to analyze the effects and outcomes of this school-based oral health program. The study sample was composed by data of a period of 3 years - 2015 to 2017 - from 13 public schools on the suburb of the city of Salvador with a total number of assessments of 9,278 on this period. From the data collected the prevalence of children with decay on permanent teeth was chosen as the most reliable indicator. The prevalence was calculated for each one of the 13 schools using the number of children with 1 or more dental caries on permanent teeth divided by the total number of students assessed for school each year. Then the percentage change per year was calculated for each school. Some schools presented a higher variation on the total number of assessments in one of the three years, so for these, the percentage change calculation was done using the two years with less variation. The results show that 10 of the 13 schools presented significative improvements for the indicator of caries in permanent teeth. The mean for the number of students with caries percentage reduction on the 13 schools was 26.8%, and the median was 32.2% caries in permanent teeth institution. The highest percentage of improvement reached a decrease of 65.6% on the indicator. Three schools presented a rise in caries prevalence (8.9, 18.9 and 37.2% increase) that, on an initial analysis, seems to be explained with the students’ cohort rotation among other schools, as well as absenteeism on the treatment. In conclusion, the program shows a relevant impact on the reduction of caries in permanent teeth among students and the need for the continuity and expansion of this integrated healthcare approach. It has also been evident the significative of the articulation between health and educational systems representing a fundamental approach to improve healthcare access for children especially in scenarios such as presented in Brazil.

Keywords: primary care, public health, oral health, school-based oral health, data management

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Authors: Diana Larisa Vladoiu, Vasile Ostafe, Adriana Isvoran

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Molecular docking calculations reveal that pesticides provide favorable interactions with the bacterial chitinases. Pesticides interact with both hydrophilic and aromatic residues involved in the active site of the enzymes, their positions partially overlapping the substrate and the inhibitors locations. Molecular docking outcomes, in correlation with experimental literature data, suggest that the pesticides may be degraded or having an inhibitor effect on the activity of these enzymes, depending of the application dose and rate.

Keywords: chitinases, inhibition, molecular docking, pesticides

Procedia PDF Downloads 533

Authors: Amèdédjihundé H. J. Hounnou, Frédéric Dubas, François-Xavier Fifatin, Didier Chamagne, Antoine Vianou

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This paper presents the techno-economic evaluation of run-of-river small-hydropower plants. In this regard, a multi-objective optimization procedure is proposed for the optimal sizing of the hydropower plants, and NSGAII is employed as the optimization algorithm. Annual generated energy and investment cost are considered as the objective functions, and number of generator units (n) and nominal turbine flow rate (Q_T) constitute the decision variables. Site of Yeripao in Benin is considered as the case study. We have categorized the river of this site using its environmental characteristics: gross head, and first quartile, median, third quartile and mean of flow. Effects of each decision variable on the objective functions are analysed. The results gave Pareto Front which represents the trade-offs between annual energy generation and the investment cost of hydropower plants, as well as the recommended optimal solutions. We noted that with the increase of the annual energy generation, the investment cost rises. Thus, maximizing energy generation is contradictory with minimizing the investment cost. Moreover, we have noted that the solutions of Pareto Front are grouped according to the number of generator units (n). The results also illustrate that the costs per kWh are grouped according to the n and rise with the increase of the nominal turbine flow rate. The lowest investment costs per kWh are obtained for n equal to one and are between 0.065 and 0.180 €/kWh. Following the values of n (equal to 1, 2, 3 or 4), the investment cost and investment cost per kWh increase almost linearly with increasing the nominal turbine flowrate while annual generated. Energy increases logarithmically with increasing of the nominal turbine flowrate. This study made for the Yeripao river can be applied to other rivers with their own characteristics.

Keywords: hydropower plant, investment cost, multi-objective optimization, number of generator units

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Authors: James M. Wakiru, Liliane Pintelon, Peter Muchiri, Stanley Mburu

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Maintenance performance measurement (MPM) represents an integrated aspect that considers both operational and maintenance related aspects while evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of maintenance to ensure assets are working as they should. Three salient issues require to be addressed for an asset-intensive organization to employ an MPM-based framework to optimize maintenance. Firstly, the organization should establish important perfomance metric(s), in this case the maintenance objective(s), which they will be focuss on. The second issue entails aligning the maintenance objective(s) with maintenance optimization. This is achieved by deriving maintenance performance indicators that subsequently form an objective function for the optimization program. Lastly, the objective function is employed in an optimization program to derive maintenance decision support. In this study, we develop a framework that initially identifies the crucial maintenance performance measures, and employs them to derive maintenance decision support. The proposed framework is demonstrated in a case study of a geothermal drilling rig, where the objective function is evaluated utilizing a simulation-based model whose parameters are derived from empirical maintenance data. Availability, reliability and maintenance inventory are depicted as essential objectives requiring further attention. A simulation model is developed mimicking a drilling rig operations and maintenance where the sub-systems are modelled undergoing imperfect maintenance, corrective (CM) and preventive (PM), with the total cost as the primary performance measurement. Moreover, three maintenance spare inventory policies are considered; classical (retaining stocks for a contractual period), vendor-managed inventory with consignment stock and periodic monitoring order-to-stock (s, S) policy. Optimization results infer that the adoption of (s, S) inventory policy, increased PM interval and reduced reliance of CM actions offers improved availability and total costs reduction.

Keywords: maintenance, vendor-managed, decision support, performance, optimization

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Authors: E. O. Egieyeh, N. Butler, R. Coetzee, M. Van Huyssteen, A. Bheekie

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Background: High rate of maternal and child mortality is a global concern. Nationally, it constitutes one of South Africa’s quadruple burdens of diseases. Pharmacists have a crucial role in maternal and child health care delivery and as such should be equipped with adequate knowledge and skill required to contribute to maternal and child well-being. The International Pharmaceutical Federation statement of policy (2013) outlines pharmacist-led interventions in accordance with the World Health Organisation’s interventions in maternal, new-born and child health care. The South African Pharmacy Council’s guideline on Good Pharmacy Practice (2010) also stipulates the minimum standards required to participate in reproductive, maternal and child care. Pharmacy schools are obliged to train pharmacy students to meet priority health needs of the population so that graduates are ‘fit for purpose’. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the knowledge and skill of final year pharmacy students at a university in South Africa to determine their preparedness to contribute effectively to maternal and child health care. Method: A quantitative, descriptive, non-randomized baseline study was conducted among the final year students at the School of Pharmacy. Data was collected using a questionnaire designed in sections to assess knowledge of contraception, maternal and child health directed at the primary care level and framed within the scope of practice required of an entry-level generalist pharmacist. Participants’ skill in infant growth assessment was assessed in a section of the questionnaire in a written format. Participants ticked the topics they had been exposed to on a curriculum content assessment tool which was not graded. A pilot study examined the clarity and suitability of question items, and duration to complete the questionnaire. A score of 50% in each section of the questionnaire indicated a pass. The questionnaire was delivered in campus lecture venue. Results: Of the 102 students in final year, 53 (52%) students consented to participate in the study. Only 13.2% of participants scored above 50% in each section. Forty five (85%) participants scored above 50% in the contraception section while 40 (75%) scored less than 50% in the skills assessment. Less than half (45.3%) of the participants had a total score above 50%. Being a parent or working part-time as pharmacist assistance did not have any influence on the performance of the participants. Evaluation of participants’ curriculum content exposure showed differences in exposure to the various topics. Exposure to contraception teaching received the most recognition. Conclusion: Maternal and child health curriculum content should be reviewed at the university to enhance the knowledge and skill of pharmacy graduates.

Keywords: final year pharmacy students, knowledge and skill, maternal and child health, South Africa

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Authors: Lawong Damian Bernsah

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Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) are most predominant among the poor and rural populations and are endemic in 149 countries. These diseases are the most prevalent and responsible for infecting 1.4 billion people worldwide. There are 17 neglected tropical diseases recognized by WHO that constitute the fourth largest disease health and economic burden of all communicable diseases. Five of these 17 diseases are considered for the cost analysis of this paper: lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, schistosomiasis, and soil transmitted helminth infections. WHO has proposed a roadmap for eradication and elimination by 2020 and treatments have been donated through the London Declaration by pharmaceutical manufacturers. The paper estimates the cost of NTD control programme and elimination for each NTD disease and total in Nigeria. This is necessary as it forms the bases upon which programme budget and expenditure could be based. Again, given the opportunity cost the resources for NTD face it is necessary to estimate the cost so as to provide bases for comparison. Cost of NTDs control and elimination programme is estimated using the population at risk for each NTD diseases and for the total. The population at risk is gotten from the national master plan for the 2015 - 2020, while the cost per person was gotten for similar studies conducted in similar settings and ranges from US$0.1 to US$0.5 for Mass Administration of Medicine (MAM) and between US$1 to US$1.5 for each NTD disease. The combined cost for all the NTDs was estimated to be US$634.88 million for the period 2015-2020 and US$1.9 billion for each NTD disease for the same period. For the purpose of sensitivity analysis and for robustness of the analysis the cost per person was varied and all were still high. Given that health expenditure for Nigeria (% of GDP) averages 3.5% for the period 1995-2014, it is very clear that efforts have to be made to improve allocation to the health sector in general which is hoped could trickle to NTDs control and elimination. Thus, the government and the donor partners would need to step-up budgetary allocation and also to be aware of the costs of NTD control and elimination programme since they have alternative uses. Key Words: Neglected Tropical Disease, Cost Analysis, NTD Programme Control and Elimination, Cost per Person

Keywords: Neglected Tropical Disease, Cost Analysis, Neglected Tropical Disease Programme Control and Elimination, Cost per Person

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Authors: Nikhil Padhye

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Recently a new phenomenon for bonding of polymeric films in solid-state, at ambient temperatures well below the glass transition temperature of the polymer, has been reported. This is achieved by bulk plastic compression of polymeric films held in contact. Here we analyze the process of cold-rolling of polymeric films via finite element simulations and illustrate a flexible and modular experimental rolling-apparatus that can achieve bonding of polymeric films through cold-rolling. Firstly, the classical theory of rolling a rigid-plastic thin-strip is utilized to estimate various deformation fields such as strain-rates, velocities, loads etc. in rolling the polymeric films at the specified feed-rates and desired levels of thickness-reduction(s). Predicted magnitudes of slow strain-rates, particularly at ambient temperatures during rolling, and moderate levels of plastic deformation (at which Bauschinger effect can be neglected for the particular class of polymeric materials studied here), greatly simplifies the task of material modeling and allows us to deploy a computationally efficient, yet accurate, finite deformation rate-independent elastic-plastic material behavior model (with inclusion of isotropic-hardening) for analyzing the rolling of these polymeric films. The interfacial behavior between the roller and polymer surfaces is modeled using Coulombic friction; consistent with the rate-independent behavior. The finite deformation elastic-plastic material behavior based on (i) the additive decomposition of stretching tensor (D = De + Dp, i.e. a hypoelastic formulation) with incrementally objective time integration and, (ii) multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient (F = FeFp) into elastic and plastic parts, are programmed and carried out for cold-rolling within ABAQUS Explicit. Predictions from both the formulations, i.e., hypoelastic and multiplicative decomposition, exhibit a close match. We find that no specialized hyperlastic/visco-plastic model is required to describe the behavior of the blend of polymeric films, under the conditions described here, thereby speeding up the computation process .

Keywords: Polymer Plasticity, Bonding, Deformation Induced Mobility, Rolling

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Authors: Archana Surendran, Kalpana C. A.

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Vitamin D insufficiency is highly prevalent in women. Vitamin D bioavailability could be reduced in obesity due to increased sequestration by white adipose tissue. Increased sun exposure due to more frequent outdoor physical activity as well as a diet rich in vitamin D could be the common cause of both higher levels of 25(OH)D and a more favorable lipid profile. The study was conducted with the aim to assess the obesity status among selected working women in Coimbatore, determine their lifestyle and physical activity pattern, study their dietary intake, estimate the vitamin D and lipid profile of selected women and associate the relationship between Vitamin D and obesity among the selected women. A total of 100 working women (non pregnant, non lactating) working in IT sector, hotels and teaching staff were selected for the study. Anthropometric measurements and dietary recall were conducted for all. The women were further categorized as obese and non-obese based on their BMI. Fifteen obese and 15 non-obese women were selected and their fasting blood glucose level, serum Vitamin D and lipid profile were measured. Association between serum vitamin D, lipid profile, anthropometric measurements, food intake and sun exposure was correlated. Fifty six percent of women in the age group between 25-39 years and 44 percent of women in the age group between 40-45 years were obese. Waist and hip circumference of women in the age group between 40-45 years (89.7 and 107.4 cm) were higher than that of obese women in the age group between 25-39 years (88.6 and 102.8 cm). There were no women with sufficient vitamin D levels. In the age group between 40-45 years (obese women), serum Vitamin D was inversely proportional to waist-hip ratio and LDL cholesterol. There was an inverse relationship between body fat percentage and Total cholesterol with serum vitamin D among the women of the age group between 25-39 years. Consumption of milk and milk products were low among women. Intake of calcium was deficit among the women in both the age groups and showed a negative correlation. Sun exposure was less for all the women. Findings from the study revealed that obese women with a higher consumption of fat and less intake of calcium-rich foods have low serum Vitamin D levels than the non-obese women. Thus, it can be concluded that there is an association between Vitamin D status and obesity among adult women.

Keywords: obesity, sun exposure, vitamin D, women

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Authors: Pawel Flaszynski, Piotr Doerffer, Jan Holnicki-Szulc, Grzegorz Mikulowski

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Results of numerical simulations for transonic flow in a piezoelectric valve are presented. The valve is the main part of an adaptive pneumatic shock absorber. Flow structure in the valve domain and the influence of the flow non-uniformity in the valve on a mass flow rate is investigated. Numerical simulation results are compared with experimental data.

Keywords: pneumatic valve, transonic flow, numerical simulations, piezoelectric valve

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: E. Kotrotsiou, A. S. Topsioti, S. Mantzoukas, E. Dragioti, M. Gouva

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Introduction: The literature has demonstrated that individual and psychological factors have a direct effect on the perceptions and attitudes of women with cancer. Objectives: To investigate the relationship between the fear of cancer and anxiety. Aim: To examine the impact of the fear of cancer in women with state and trait anxiety of women. Methods: A community sample of 286 women (mean age 39.6 years, SD = 9.5 ranged 20-60) participated in the current study. The women completed a) State - Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and b) questionnaire concerning socio-demographic information and questions for fear of cancer. Results: The perception of fear in women with cancer is statistically independent from their age (t–test, p = 0.58), their family status (χ2, p = 0.519), their place of residency (χ2, p = 0.148), the manifestation of gynecological cancer (χ2, p = 0.979) or the manifestation of any type of cancer in the family (χ2, p = 0.277). In contrast, it was observed that there was a dependence in relation to a total of phobias (χ2, p = 0.003), the fear of illness (χ2, p< 0.001) and the fear of heights (χ2, p = 0.004). Furthermore, the participants that responded that they feared cancer displayed greater level of stress both as situation (t=-3.462; p=0.001) and as a trait of their personality (t=-4.377; p<0.001), and at the same time they displayed greater levels of depression in comparisons with the other participants. Furthermore, following multiple linear regression analysis it was observed that the participants that responded positively to the question if they feared cancer had 8, 3 units greater stress level as a personality trait in comparison to women that responded negatively to the question if they feared cancer (B=8.3; p=0.016; R2=0.506). Conclusion: Women’s fear of cancer is statistically independent from their age, family status, place of residency, the manifestation of gynaecological cancer and with the manifestation of cancer any type in the family. In contrast, there is a dependency with the total of phobias, fear of illness and fear of heights. Women that state that they have a fear of cancer manifest greater levels of stress from the rest of the participants both as situation and as a trait of their personality (p = 0.001 and p< 0.001 accordingly). In specific, the study demonstrated that the participants that positively to the question if they feared cancer had 8,3 units greater stress level as a personality trait in comparison to women that responded negatively.

Keywords: fear, women health, anxiety, psychology, cancer

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Authors: Mohammad Hossein Modarressi, Mozhgan Mondeali, Khabat Barkhordari, Ali Etemadi

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The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has led to significant concerns worldwide due to its catastrophic effects on public health. The SARS-CoV-2 infection is initiated with the binding of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) in its spike protein to the ACE2 receptor in the host cell membrane. Due to the error-prone entity of the viral RNA-dependent polymerase complex, the virus genome, including the coding region for the RBD, acquires new mutations, leading to the appearance of multiple variants. These variants can potentially impact transmission, virulence, antigenicity and evasive immune properties. S477N mutation located in the RBD has been observed in the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1. 529) variant. In this study, we investigated the consequences of S477N mutation at the molecular level using computational approaches such as molecular dynamics simulation, protein-protein interaction analysis, immunoinformatics and free energy computation. We showed that displacement of Ser with Asn increases the stability of the spike protein and its affinity to ACE2 and thus increases the transmission potential of the virus. This mutation changes the folding and secondary structure of the spike protein. Also, it reduces antibody neutralization, raising concern about re-infection, vaccine breakthrough and therapeutic values.

Keywords: S477N, COVID-19, molecular dynamic, SARS-COV2 mutations

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: average run length (ARL), bernoulli cusum (BC) chart, beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution, clinical indicator (CI), healthcare organization (HCO), highest posterior density (HPD) interval

Procedia PDF Downloads 193