Search results for: models of innovation

Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi, Abdulkareem Afolabi Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of modeling the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. We do a comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate, and novel quarantine adjusted incident rate in the models. The dynamics of the models yield disease free and endemic equilibrium states. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact for the individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models, and we found that stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, endemic state, mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

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Authors: Ahmed El-Banbi

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Several PVT models exist to represent how PVT properties are handled in sub-surface and surface engineering calculations for oil and gas production. The most commonly used models include black oil, modified black oil (MBO), and compositional models. These models are used in calculations that allow engineers to optimize and forecast well and reservoir performance (e.g., reservoir simulation calculations, material balance, nodal analysis, surface facilities, etc.). The choice of which model is dependent on fluid type and the production process (e.g., depletion, water injection, gas injection, etc.). Based on close to 2,000 reservoir fluid samples collected from different basins and locations, this paper presents some conclusions on the occurrence of reservoir fluids. It also reviews the common methods used to classify reservoir fluid types. Based on new criteria related to the production behavior of different fluids and economic considerations, an updated classification of reservoir fluid types is presented in the paper. Recommendations on the use of different PVT models to simulate the behavior of different reservoir fluid types are discussed. Each PVT model requirement is highlighted. Available methods for the calculation of PVT properties from each model are also discussed. Practical recommendations and tips on how to control the calculations to achieve the most accurate results are given.

Keywords: PVT models, fluid types, PVT properties, fluids classification

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Authors: Meng-Fei Cheng, Wei-Lun Chen, Han-Chang Ma, Chi-Che Tsai

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Recent K–12 Taiwan Science Education Curriculum Guideline emphasize the essential role of modeling curriculum in science learning; however, few modeling curricula have been designed and adopted in current science teaching. Therefore, this study aims to develop modeling curriculum on electric circuits to investigate any learning difficulties students have with modeling curriculum and further enhance modeling teaching. This study was conducted with 44 10th-grade students in Central Taiwan. Data collection included a students’ understanding of models in science (SUMS) survey that explored the students' epistemology of scientific models and modeling and a complex circuit problem to investigate the students’ modeling abilities. Data analysis included the following: (1) Paired sample t-tests were used to examine the improvement of students’ modeling abilities and conceptual understanding before and after the curriculum was taught. (2) Paired sample t-tests were also utilized to determine the students’ modeling abilities before and after the modeling activities, and a Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between students’ modeling abilities during the activities and on the posttest. (3) ANOVA analysis was used during different stages of the modeling curriculum to investigate the differences between the students’ who developed microscopic models and macroscopic models after the modeling curriculum was taught. (4) Independent sample t-tests were employed to determine whether the students who changed their models had significantly different understandings of scientific models than the students who did not change their models. The results revealed the following: (1) After the modeling curriculum was taught, the students had made significant progress in both their understanding of the science concept and their modeling abilities. In terms of science concepts, this modeling curriculum helped the students overcome the misconception that electric currents reduce after flowing through light bulbs. In terms of modeling abilities, this modeling curriculum helped students employ macroscopic or microscopic models to explain their observed phenomena. (2) Encouraging the students to explain scientific phenomena in different context prompts during the modeling process allowed them to convert their models to microscopic models, but it did not help them continuously employ microscopic models throughout the whole curriculum. The students finally consistently employed microscopic models when they had help visualizing the microscopic models. (3) During the modeling process, the students who revised their own models better understood that models can be changed than the students who did not revise their own models. Also, the students who revised their models to explain different scientific phenomena tended to regard models as explanatory tools. In short, this study explored different strategies to facilitate students’ modeling processes as well as their difficulties with the modeling process. The findings can be used to design and teach modeling curricula and help students enhance their modeling abilities.

Keywords: electric circuits, modeling curriculum, science learning, scientific model

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Authors: R. Hellmuth

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The method of factory planning has changed a lot, especially when it is about planning the factory building itself. Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the building of a factory. Regular restructuring is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A digital factory model is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable tool. Furthermore, digital building models are increasingly being used in factories to support facility management and manufacturing processes. The main research question of this paper is, therefore: What kind of digital factory model is suitable for the different areas of application during the operation of a factory? First, different types of digital factory models are investigated, and their properties and usabilities for use cases are analysed. Within the scope of investigation are point cloud models, building information models, photogrammetry models, and these enriched with sensor data are examined. It is investigated which digital models allow a simple integration of sensor data and where the differences are. Subsequently, possible application areas of digital factory models are determined by means of a survey and the respective digital factory models are assigned to the application areas. Finally, an application case from maintenance is selected and implemented with the help of the appropriate digital factory model. It is shown how a completely digitalized maintenance process can be supported by a digital factory model by providing information. Among other purposes, the digital factory model is used for indoor navigation, information provision, and display of sensor data. In summary, the paper shows a structuring of digital factory models that concentrates on the geometric representation of a factory building and its technical facilities. A practical application case is shown and implemented. Thus, the systematic selection of digital factory models with the corresponding application cases is evaluated.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, maintenance

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Authors: Yoko Yamada, Chizumi Yamada

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Narrative psychology is based on the dialogical relationship between self and other. The dialogue can consist of divided, competitive, or opposite communication between self and other. We constructed models of coexistent dialogue in which self and other were positioned side by side and communicated sympathetically. We propose new mediation models for narrative relationships. The mediation models are based on triadic relationships that incorporate a medium or a mediator along with self and other. We constructed three types of mediation model. In the first type, called the “Joint Attention Model”, self and other are positioned side by side and share attention with the medium. In the second type, the “Triangle Model”, an agent mediates between self and other. In the third type, the “Caring Model”, a caregiver stands beside the communication between self and other. We apply the three models to the illness narratives of medical professionals and patients. As these groups have different views and experiences of disease or illness, triadic mediation facilitates the ability to see things from the other person’s perspective and to bridge differences in people’s experiences and feelings. These models would be useful for medical education in various situations, such as in considering the relationships between senior and junior doctors and between old and young patients.

Keywords: illness narrative, mediation, psychology, model, medical education

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Authors: Aleksandra Czubek

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As AI systems increasingly shape content creation, existing copyright frameworks face significant challenges in determining liability for AI-generated outputs. Current legal discussions largely focus on who bears responsibility for infringing works, be it developers, users, or entities benefiting from AI outputs. This paper introduces a novel concept of algorithmic obligations, proposing that AI developers be subject to proactive duties that ensure their models prevent copyright infringement before it occurs. Building on principles of obligations law traditionally applied to human actors, the paper suggests a shift from reactive enforcement to proactive legal requirements. AI developers would be legally mandated to incorporate copyright-aware mechanisms within their systems, turning optional safeguards into enforceable standards. These obligations could vary in implementation across international, EU, UK, and U.S. legal frameworks, creating a multi-jurisdictional approach to copyright compliance. This paper explores how the EU’s existing copyright framework, exemplified by the Copyright Directive (2019/790), could evolve to impose a duty of foresight on AI developers, compelling them to embed mechanisms that prevent infringing outputs. By drawing parallels to GDPR’s “data protection by design,” a similar principle could be applied to copyright law, where AI models are designed to minimize copyright risks. In the UK, post-Brexit text and data mining exemptions are seen as pro-innovation but pose risks to copyright protections. This paper proposes a balanced approach, introducing algorithmic obligations to complement these exemptions. AI systems benefiting from text and data mining provisions should integrate safeguards that flag potential copyright violations in real time, ensuring both innovation and protection. In the U.S., where copyright law focuses on human-centric works, this paper suggests an evolution toward algorithmic due diligence. AI developers would have a duty similar to product liability, ensuring that their systems do not produce infringing outputs, even if the outputs themselves cannot be copyrighted. This framework introduces a shift from post-infringement remedies to preventive legal structures, where developers actively mitigate risks. The paper also breaks new ground by addressing obligations surrounding the training data of large language models (LLMs). Currently, training data is often treated under exceptions such as the EU’s text and data mining provisions or U.S. fair use. However, this paper proposes a proactive framework where developers are obligated to verify and document the legal status of their training data, ensuring it is licensed or otherwise cleared for use. In conclusion, this paper advocates for an obligations-centered model that shifts AI-related copyright law from reactive litigation to proactive design. By holding AI developers to a heightened standard of care, this approach aims to prevent infringement at its source, addressing both the outputs of AI systems and the training processes that underlie them.

Keywords: ip, technology, copyright, data, infringement, comparative analysis

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Authors: Fatima Ahdash

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Over the last 6-7 years, the UK has resorted to using the family courts and the family justice system more generally as a way of dealing with children and young people either traveling to or returning from ISIS territories in the Middle East. This is an important innovation in counter-terrorism laws and practices in the UK: never before have the family courts been used for the purpose of preventing and countering terrorism anywhere in the world. This paper will examine this innovation; it will explore how, why, and the implications of the interaction between family law and counter-terrorism, particularly on the human rights of the parents and children involved. It will question whether the use of the family courts provides a more useful, and perhaps human rights compliant, method of tackling terrorism and extremism when compared to other more Draconian legal and administrative methods.

Keywords: counter-terrorism, family justice, law, human rights

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Authors: A. A. A. Aboalnour, Ahmed M. Amasaib, Mohammed-Almujtaba A. Mohammed-Farah, Abdelhakam, A. Noreldien

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This paper presents a design and study of Parabolic Trough Solar Collector (PTC). Mathematical models were used in this work to find the direct and reflected solar radiation from the air layer on the surface of the earth per hour based on the total daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface. Also mathematical models had been used to calculate the radiation of the tilted surfaces. Most of the ingredients used in this project as previews data required on several solar energy applications, thermal simulation, and solar power systems. In addition, mathematical models had been used to study the flow of the fluid inside the tube (receiver), and study the effect of direct and reflected solar radiation on the pressure, temperature, speed, kinetic energy and forces of fluid inside the tube. Finally, the mathematical models had been used to study the (PTC) performances and estimate its thermal efficiency.

Keywords: CFD, experimental, mathematical models, parabolic trough, radiation

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models on two different realworld electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, machine learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias

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Authors: Julio Macedo

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Several methodologies are now available to conceive the improvements of a process so that it becomes competitive as for example total quality, process reengineering, six sigma, define measure analysis improvement control method. These improvements are of different nature and can be external to the process represented by an optimization model or a discrete simulation model. In addition, the process stakeholders are several and have different desired performances for the process. Hence, the methodologies above do not have a tool to aid in the conception of the required improvements. In order to fill this void we suggest the use of intelligent reference models. A reference model is a set of qualitative differential equations and an objective function that minimizes the gap between the current and the desired performance indexes of the process. The reference models are intelligent so when they receive the current state of the problematic process and the desired performance indexes they generate the required improvements for the problematic process. The reference models are fuzzy cognitive maps added with an objective function and trained using the improvements implemented by the high performance firms. Experiments done in a set of students show the reference models allow them to conceive more improvements than students that do not use these models.

Keywords: continuous improvement, fuzzy cognitive maps, process competitiveness, qualitative simulation, system dynamics

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Authors: M. F. Amado, A. Amado, F. Poggi, J. Correia de Freitas

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Today it is widely understood that global energy consumption patterns are directly related to the ongoing urban expansion and development process. This expansion is based on the natural growth of human activities and has left most urban areas totally dependent on fossil fuel derived external energy inputs. This status-quo of production, transportation, storage and consumption of energy has become inefficient and is set to become even more so when the continuous increases in energy demand are factored in. The territorial management of land use and related activities is a central component in the search for more efficient models of energy use, models that can meet current and future regional, national and European goals. In this paper, a methodology is developed and discussed with the aim of improving energy efficiency at the municipal level. The development of this methodology is based on the monitoring of energy consumption and its use patterns resulting from the natural dynamism of human activities in the territory and can be utilized to assess sustainability at the local scale. A set of parameters and indicators are defined with the objective of constructing a systemic model based on the optimization, adaptation and innovation of the current energy framework and the associated energy consumption patterns. The use of the model will enable local governments to strike the necessary balance between human activities, economic development, and the local and global environment while safeguarding fairness in the energy sector.

Keywords: solar urban planning, solar smart city, urban development, energy efficiency

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Authors: Suriya

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Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

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Authors: Khalid Soussi

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Implementing innovative teaching and learning methods is of pivotal importance for student motivation and teaching quality. At the center of such quality are teaching competencies. The present paper investigates three teachers’ core competencies related to their innovative teaching performance: educational/pedagogical competency, teaching competency, and social competency. The paper also attempts to describe the influence of social factors on innovation in higher education. Many recent studies highlight the technological competency as an independent one, but it is believed in this study that the latter makes part of the pedagogical competency. A Likert scale questionnaire was used to measure teachers’ judgements of core competencies role in innovative teaching performance. The study also attempted to demarcate the social variables that may affect innovative teaching in higher education. The findings indicate that teachers’ educational competency and teaching competency were generally confirmed to be either important or very important for innovation in teaching performance. Regarding social competency, the study also shows that satisfaction from job, daily working hours, amount of workload, flexibility in the functioning and the quality of students are the main factors that have a large effect on teachers’ innovative teaching performance.

Keywords: higher education, innovative teaching, teaching competencies, teaching performance

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

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Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian, and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling over-dispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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Authors: Axel Thallemer, Martin Danzer, Dominik Diensthuber, Aleksandar Kostadinov, Bernhard Rogler

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Nature has always inspired the creative mind, to a lesser or greater extent. Introduced around the 1950s, Biomimetics served as a systematic method to treat the natural world as a ‘pattern book’ for technical solutions with the aim to create innovative products. Unfortunately, this technique is prone to failure when performed as a mere reverse engineering of a natural system or appearance. Contrary to that, a solution which looks at the principles of a natural design, promises a better outcome. One such example is the here presented case study, which shows the design process of three distinctive grippers. The devices have biomimetic properties on two levels. Firstly, they use a kinematic chain found in beaks and secondly, they have a biomimetic structural geometry, which was realized using additive manufacturing. In a next step, the manufacturing method was evaluated to estimate its efficiency for commercial production. The results show that the fabrication procedure is still in its early stage and thus it is not able to guarantee satisfactory results. To summarize the study, we claim that a novel solution can be derived using principles from nature, however, for the solution to be actualized successfully, there are parameters which are beyond reach for designers. Nonetheless, industrial designers can contribute to product innovation using biomimetics.

Keywords: biomimetics, innovation, design process, additive manufacturing

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Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

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In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

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Authors: Sangyun Han, Minki Kim

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R&D outsourcing is a strategy for acquiring the competitiveness of firms as an open innovation strategy. As increasing total R&D investment of firms, the ratio of amount of R&D outsourcing in it is also increased in Korea. In this paper, we investigate the determinants and effects of R&D outsourcing of firms. Through analyzing the determinants of R&D outsourcing and effect on firm’s performance, we can find some academic and politic issues. Firstly, in the point of academic view, distinguishing the determinants of R&D outsourcing is linked why the firms do open innovation. It can be answered resource based view, core competence theory, and etc. Secondly, we can get some S&T politic implication for transferring the public intellectual properties to private area. Especially, for supporting the more SMEs or ventures, government can get the basement and the reason why and how to make the policies.

Keywords: determinants, effects, R&D, outsourcing

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Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The performance of wireless communication systems is affected mainly by the environment of its associated channel, which is characterized by dynamic and unpredictable behavior. In this paper, different statistical earth-satellite channel models are studied with emphasize on two main models, first is the Rice-Log normal model, due to its representation for the environment including shadowing and multi-path components that affect the propagated signal along its path, and a three-state model that take into account different fading conditions (clear area, moderate shadow and heavy shadowing). The provided models are based on AWGN, Rician, Rayleigh, and log-normal distributions were their Probability Density Functions (PDFs) are presented. The transmission system Bit Error Rate (BER), Peak-Average-Power Ratio (PAPR), and the channel capacity vs. fading models are measured and analyzed. These simulations are implemented using MATLAB tool, and the results had shown the performance of transmission system over different channel models.

Keywords: fading channels, MIMO communication, RNS scheme, statistical modeling

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Authors: Debora Gottardello, Mireia Valverde Aparicio, Juan Llopis Taverner

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Globalization has given rise to a great diversity in the composition of people in organizations. Diversity management is therefore key to create growth in today’s competitive global marketplace. This work develops a literature review related to the existing models for managing diversity covering the period from 1980 until 2014. Furthermore, it identifies limitations in previous models. More specifically, the literature review reveals that there is a lack of information about how these models can be adapted from the headquarters to the subsidiaries. Therefore, the contribution of this paper is to suggest how the models should be adapted when they are directed to host countries. Our aim is to highlight the limitations of the developed models with regards to the translation of the diversity management practices to the subsidiaries. Accordingly, a model that will enable MNCs to ensure a global strategy is suggested. Taking advantage of the potential incorporated in a culturally diverse work team should be at the top of every international company’s aims. Executives from headquarters need to use different attitudes when transferring diversity practices towards their subsidiaries. Further studies should reassess local practices of diversity management to find out how this universal management model is translated.

Keywords: culture diversity, diversity management, human resources management, MNCs, subsidiaries, workforce diversity

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Authors: Aldin Justin Sundararaj, Austin Lord Tennyson, Divya Jose, A. N. Subash

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Blast waves are generated due to the explosions of high energy materials. An explosion yielding a blast wave has the potential to cause severe damage to buildings and its personnel. In order to understand the physics of effects of blast pressure on buildings, studies in the shock tube on generic configurations are carried out at various pressures on discrete models. The strength of shock wave is systematically varied by using different driver gases and diaphragm thickness. The basic material of the diaphragm is Aluminum. To simulate the effect of shock waves on discrete models a shock tube was used. Generic models selected for this study are suitably scaled cylinder, cone and cubical blocks. The experiments were carried out with 2mm diaphragm with burst pressure ranging from 28 to 31 bar. Numerical analysis was carried out over these discrete models. A 3D model of shock-tube with different discrete models inside the tube was used for CFD computation. It was found that cone has dissipated most of the shock pressure compared to cylinder and cubical block. The robustness and the accuracy of the numerical model were validation with the analytical and experimental data.

Keywords: shock wave, blast wave, discrete models, shock tube

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Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction

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Authors: Pavan K. Rallabandi, Kailash C. Patidar

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In this paper, we present an optimization technique or a learning algorithm using the hybrid architecture by combining the most popular sequence recognition models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Hidden Markov models (HMMs). In order to improve the sequence or pattern recognition/ classification performance by applying a hybrid/neural symbolic approach, a gradient descent learning algorithm is developed using the Real Time Recurrent Learning of Recurrent Neural Network for processing the knowledge represented in trained Hidden Markov Models. The developed hybrid algorithm is implemented on automata theory as a sample test beds and the performance of the designed algorithm is demonstrated and evaluated on learning the deterministic finite state automata.

Keywords: hybrid systems, hidden markov models, recurrent neural networks, deterministic finite state automata

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Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

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We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

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Authors: Claes Gunnarsson, Karin Fröding, Nina Hasche

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Innovation is a necessity for the evolution of societies and it is also a driving force in human life that leverages value creation among cross-sector participants in various network arrangements. Social innovations can be characterized as the creation and implementation of a new solution to a social problem, which is more effective and sustainable than existing solutions in terms of improvement of society’s conditions and in particular social inclusion processes. However, barriers exist which may restrict the potential of social innovations to live up to its promise as a societal welfare promoting driving force. The literature points at difficulties in tackling social problems primarily related to problem complexity, access to networks, and lack of financial muscles. Further research is warranted at detailed at detail clarification of these barriers, also connected to recognition of the interplay between institutional logics on the development of cross-sector collaborations in networks and the organizing processes to achieve innovation barrier break-through. There is also a need to further elaborate how obstacles that spur a difference between the actual and desired state of innovative value creating service systems can be overcome. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate barriers to social innovations, based on qualitative content analysis of 36 dialogue-based seminars (i.e. research circles) with nine Swedish focus groups including more than 90 individuals representing civil society organizations, private business, municipal offices, and politicians; and analyze patterns that reveal constituents of barriers to social innovations. The paper draws on central aspects of innovation barriers as discussed in the literature and analyze barriers basically related to internal/external and tangible/intangible characteristics. The findings of this study are that existing institutional structures highly influence the transformative potential of social innovations, as well as networking conditions in terms of building a competence-propelled strategy, which serves as an offspring for overcoming barriers of competence extension. Both theoretical and practical knowledge will contribute to how policy-makers and SI-practitioners can facilitate and support social innovation processes to be contextually adapted and implemented across areas and sectors.

Keywords: barriers, research circles, social innovation, service systems

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Authors: Manoj Reghu, Prabhu Rajagopal, C. V. Krishnamurthy, Krishnan Balasubramaniam

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A thorough understanding of guided ultrasonic wave behavior in structures is essential for the application of existing Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technologies, as well as for the development of new methods. However, the analysis of guided wave phenomena is challenging because of their complex dispersive and multimodal nature. Although numerical solution procedures have proven to be very useful in this regard, the increasing complexity of features and defects to be considered, as well as the desire to improve the accuracy of inspection often imposes a large computational cost. Hybrid models that combine numerical solutions for wave scattering with faster alternative methods for wave propagation have long been considered as a solution to this problem. However usually such models require modification of the base code of the solution procedure. Here we aim to develop Generic Hybrid models that can be directly applied to any two different solution procedures. With this goal in mind, a Numerical Hybrid model and an Analytical-Numerical Hybrid model has been developed. The concept and implementation of these Hybrid models are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: guided ultrasonic waves, Finite Element Method (FEM), Hybrid model

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Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

Abstract:

Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: Richard Roberts, Anna Kravtcova

Abstract:

Introduction: The realisation that personality can change over the course of a lifetime has led to a new companion model to the Big Five, the behavioural, emotional, and social skills approach (BESSA). BESSA hypothesizes that this set of skills represents how the individual is thinking, feeling, and behaving when the situation calls for it, as opposed to traits, which represent how someone tends to think, feel, and behave averaged across situations. The five major skill domains share parallels with the Big Five Factor (BFF) model creativity and innovation (openness), self-management (conscientiousness), social engagement (extraversion), cooperation (agreeableness), and emotional resilience (emotional stability) skills. We point to noteworthy limitations in the current operationalisation of BESSA skills (i.e., via Likert-type items) and offer up a different measurement approach: forced choice. Method: In this forced-choice paradigm, individuals were given three skill items (e.g., managing my time) and asked to select one response they believed they were “worst at” and “best at”. The Thurstonian IRT models allow these to be placed on a normative scale. Two multivariate studies (N = 1178) were conducted with a 22-item forced-choice version of the BESSA, a published measure of the BFF, and various criteria. Findings: Confirmatory factor analysis of the forced-choice assessment showed acceptable model fit (RMSEA<0.06), while reliability estimates were reasonable (around 0.70 for each construct). Convergent validity evidence was as predicted (correlations between 0.40 and 0.60 for corresponding BFF and BESSA constructs). Notable was the extent the forced-choice BESSA assessment improved upon test-criterion relationships over and above the BFF. For example, typical regression models find BFF personality accounting for 25% of the variance in life satisfaction scores; both studies showed incremental gains over the BFF exceeding 6% (i.e., BFF and BESSA together accounted for over 31% of the variance in both studies). Discussion: Forced-choice measurement models offer up the promise of creating equated test forms that may unequivocally measure skill gains and are less prone to fakability and reference bias effects. Implications for practitioners are discussed, especially those interested in selection, succession planning, and training and development. We also discuss how the forced choice method can be applied to other constructs like emotional immunity, cross-cultural competence, and self-estimates of cognitive ability.

Keywords: Big Five, forced-choice method, BFF, methods of measurements

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Authors: H. Zormati, J. Chebil, J. Bel Hadj Tahar

Abstract:

Next generation wireless transmission technology (5G) is expected to support the development of channel models for higher frequency bands, so clarification of high frequency bands is the most important issue in radio propagation research for 5G, multiple urban microcellular measurements have been carried out at 60 GHz. In this paper, the collected data is uniformly analyzed with focus on the path loss (PL), the objective is to compare simulation results of some studied channel models with the purpose of testing the performance of each one.

Keywords: 5G, channel model, 60GHz channel, millimeter-wave, urban microcell

Procedia PDF Downloads 319