Search results for: risk prediction model

Authors: Alexandra Sargent, Sarah Ferris, Ioannis Theofanous

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The Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV test (RealTime HPV) is one of five assays clinically validated and approved by the English NHS Cervical Screening Programme (CSP) for HPV triage of low grade dyskaryosis and test-of-cure of treated Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia. The assay is a highly automated multiplex real-time PCR test for detecting 14 high risk (hr) HPV types, with simultaneous differentiation of HPV 16 and HPV 18 versus non-HPV 16/18 hrHPV. An endogenous internal control ensures sample cellularity, controls extraction efficiency and PCR inhibition. The original cervical specimen collected in SurePath (SP) liquid-based cytology (LBC) medium (BD Diagnostics) and the SP post-gradient cell pellets (SPG) after cytological processing are both CE marked for testing with the RealTime HPV test. During the 2011 NHSCSP validation of new tests only the original aliquot of SP LBC medium was investigated. Residual sample volume left after cytology slide preparation is low and may not always have sufficient volume for repeat HPV testing or for testing of other biomarkers that may be implemented in testing algorithms in the future. The SPG samples, however, have sufficient volumes to carry out additional testing and necessary laboratory validation procedures. This study investigates the correlation of RealTime HPV results of cervical specimens collected in SP LBC medium from women with low grade cytological abnormalities observed with matched pairs of original SP LBC medium and SP post-gradient cell pellets (SPG) after cytology processing. Matched pairs of SP and SPG samples from 750 women with borderline (N = 392) and mild (N = 351) cytology were available for this study. Both specimen types were processed and parallel tested for the presence of hrHPV with RealTime HPV according to the manufacturer´s instructions. HrHPV detection rates and concordance between test results from matched SP and SPGCP pairs were calculated. A total of 743 matched pairs with valid test results on both sample types were available for analysis. An overall-agreement of hrHPV test results of 97.5% (k: 0.95) was found with matched SP/SPG pairs and slightly lower concordance (96.9%; k: 0.94) was observed on 392 pairs from women with borderline cytology compared to 351 pairs from women with mild cytology (98.0%; k: 0.95). Partial typing results were highly concordant in matched SP/SPG pairs for HPV 16 (99.1%), HPV 18 (99.7%) and non-HPV16/18 hrHPV (97.0%), respectively. 19 matched pairs were found with discrepant results: 9 from women with borderline cytology and 4 from women with mild cytology were negative on SPG and positive on SP; 3 from women with borderline cytology and 3 from women with mild cytology were negative on SP and positive on SPG. Excellent correlation of hrHPV DNA test results was found between matched pairs of SP original fluid and post-gradient cell pellets from women with low grade cytological abnormalities tested with the Abbott RealTime High-Risk HPV assay, demonstrating robust performance of the test with both specimen types and reassuring the utility of the assay for cytology triage with both specimen types.

Keywords: Abbott realtime test, HPV, SurePath liquid based cytology, surepath post-gradient cell pellet

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Authors: Sumitra Nuanmeesri

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The research focus on study, analyze and design the model of the infrastructure and computer networks for distance education, online learning via new media, e-learning and blended learning. The collected information from study and analyze process that information was evaluated by the index of item objective congruence (IOC) by 9 specialists to design model. The results of evaluate the model with the mean and standard deviation by the sample of 9 specialists value is 3.85. The results showed that the infrastructure and computer networks are designed to be appropriate to a great extent appropriate to a great extent.

Keywords: blended learning, new media, infrastructure and computer network, tele-education, online learning

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Authors: Hiba Hamdi, Thomas Corpetti, Laure Roupioz, Xavier Briottet

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Air temperatures are generally higher in cities than in their rural surroundings. The overheating of cities is a direct consequence of increasing urbanization, characterized by the artificial filling of soils, the release of anthropogenic heat, and the complexity of urban geometry. This phenomenon, referred to as urban heat island (UHI), is more prevalent during heat waves, which have increased in frequency and intensity in recent years. In the context of global warming and urban population growth, helping urban planners implement UHI mitigation and adaptation strategies is critical. In practice, the study of UHI requires air temperature information at the street canyon level, which is difficult to obtain. Many urban air temperature simulation models have been proposed (mostly based on physics or statistics), all of which require a variety of input parameters related to urban morphology, land use, material properties, or meteorological conditions. In this paper, we build and evaluate a neural network model based on Urban Weather Generator (UWG) model simulations and data from meteorological stations that simulate air temperature over Toulouse, France, on days favourable to UHI.

Keywords: air temperature, neural network model, urban heat island, urban weather generator

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Authors: Hossein Afzali

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Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. It is well noted that the accuracy of model predictions is strongly influenced by the appropriateness of model structuring. However, there is relatively inadequate methodological guidance surrounding this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. This presentation aims to discuss issues around model structuring within decision making with a focus on (1) the need for a transparent and evidence-based model structuring process to inform the most appropriate set of structural aspects as the base case analysis; (2) the need to characterise structural uncertainty (If there exist alternative plausible structural assumptions (or judgements), there is a need to appropriately characterise the related structural uncertainty). The presentation will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on how the guidelines developed by national funding bodies address the above issues and identify areas for further improvements. First, a review and analysis of the literature and guidelines developed by PBAC and NICE will be provided. Then, it will be discussed how the issues around model structuring (including structural uncertainty) are not handled and justified in a systematic way within the decision-making process, its potential impact on the quality of public funding decisions, and how it should be presented in submissions to national funding bodies. This presentation represents a contribution to the good modelling practice within the decision-making process. Although the presentation focuses on the PBAC and NICE guidelines, the discussion can be applied more widely to many other national funding bodies that use economic evaluation to inform funding decisions but do not transparently address model structuring issues e.g. the Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) in Australia or the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation, good modelling practice, structural uncertainty

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Authors: Nauman Idrees

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Modeling and simulation during the conceptual design phase are the most effective means of system testing resulting in time and cost savings as compared to the testing of hardware prototypes, which are mostly not available during the conceptual design phase. This paper uses the model-based design (MBD) method in designing the fly-by-wire flight controls system of a fighter aircraft using Simulink. The process begins with system definition and layout where modeling requirements and system components were identified, followed by hierarchical system layout to identify the sequence of operation and interfaces of system with external environment as well as the internal interface between the components. In the second step, each component within the system architecture was modeled along with its physical and functional behavior. Finally, all modeled components were combined to form the fly-by-wire flight controls system of a fighter aircraft as per system architecture developed. The system model developed using this method can be simulated using any simulation software to ensure that desired requirements are met even without the development of a physical prototype resulting in time and cost savings.

Keywords: fly-by-wire, flight controls system, model based design, Simulink

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Authors: Ozgu Turgut

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Water scarcity is a problem for many regions which requires immediate action, and solutions cannot be postponed for a long time. It is known that farming consumes a significant portion of usable water. Although in recent years, the efforts to make the transition to dripping or spring watering systems instead of using surface watering started to pay off. It is also known that this transition is not necessarily translated into an increase in the capacity dedicated to other water consumption channels such as city water or power usage. In order to control and allocate the water resource more purposefully, new watering systems have to be used with monitoring abilities that can limit the usage capacity for each farm. In this study, a decision support model which relies on a bi-objective stochastic linear optimization is proposed, which takes crop yield and price volatility into account. The model generates annual planting plans as well as water usage limits for each farmer in the region while taking the total value (i.e., profit) of the overall harvest. The mathematical model is solved using the L-shaped method optimally. The decision support model can be especially useful for regional administrations to plan next year's planting and water incomes and expenses. That is why not only a single optimum but also a set of representative solutions from the Pareto set is generated with the proposed approach.

Keywords: decision support, farming, water, tactical planning, optimization, stochastic, pareto

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Authors: Sh. Heidari, A. J. Andrews, A. Oberoi

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Electrochemical storage of hydrogen in activated carbon electrodes as part of a reversible fuel cell offers a potentially attractive option for storing surplus electrical energy from inherently variable solar and wind energy resources. Such a system – which we have called a proton flow battery – promises to have a roundtrip energy efficiency comparable to lithium ion batteries, while having higher gravimetric and volumetric energy densities. In this paper, a theoretical model is presented of the process of H+ ion (proton) conduction through an acid electrolyte into a highly porous activated carbon electrode where it is neutralised and absorbed on the inner surfaces of pores. A Butler-Volmer type equation relates the rate of adsorption to the potential difference between the activated carbon surface and the electrolyte. This model for the hydrogen storage electrode is then incorporated into a more general computer model based on MATLAB software of the entire electrochemical cell including the oxygen electrode. Hence a theoretical voltage-current curve is generated for given input parameters for a particular activated carbon electrode. It is shown that theoretical VI curves produced by the model can be fitted accurately to experimental data from an actual electrochemical cell with the same characteristics. By obtaining the best-fit values of input parameters, such as the exchange current density and charge transfer coefficient for the hydrogen adsorption reaction, an improved understanding of the adsorption reaction is obtained. This new model will assist in designing improved proton flow batteries for storing solar and wind energy.

Keywords: electrochemical hydrogen storage, proton flow battery, butler-volmer equation, activated carbon

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Authors: Endeshaw Assefa Derso, Maria Gabriella Campolo, Angela Alibrandi

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Objectives:Early childhood malnutrition can have long-term and irreversible effects on a child's health and development. This study uses the Bayesian method with spatial variation to investigate the flexible trends of metrical covariates and to identify communities at high risk of injury. Methods: Cross-sectional data on underweight are collected from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). The Bayesian geo-additive model is performed. Appropriate prior distributions were provided for scall parameters in the models, and the inference is entirely Bayesian, using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) stimulation. Results: The results show that metrical covariates like child age, maternal body mass index (BMI), and maternal age affect a child's underweight non-linearly. Lower and higher maternal BMI seem to have a significant impact on the child’s high underweight. There was also a significant spatial heterogeneity, and based on IDW interpolation of predictive values, the western, central, and eastern parts of the country are hotspot areas. Conclusion: Socio-demographic and community- based programs development should be considered compressively in Ethiopian policy to combat childhood underweight malnutrition.

Keywords: bayesX, Ethiopia, malnutrition, MCMC, semi-parametric bayesian analysis, spatial distribution, P- splines

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Authors: Shingo Murakami, Shinichi Enoki

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In structures, stress concentration is a factor of fatigue fracture. Basically, the stress concentration is a phenomenon that should be avoided. However, it is difficult to avoid the stress concentration. Therefore, relaxation of the stress concentration is important. The stress concentration arises from notches and circular holes. There is a relaxation method that a composite patch covers a notch and a circular hole. This relaxation method is used to repair aerial wings, but it is not systematized. Composites are more expensive than single materials. Accordingly, we propose the relaxation method that a single material patch covers a notch and a circular hole, and aim to systematize this relaxation method. We performed FEA (Finite Element Analysis) about an object by using a three-dimensional FEA model. The object was that a patch adheres to a plate with a circular hole. And, a uniaxial tensile load acts on the patched plate with a circular hole. In the three-dimensional FEA model, it is not easy to model the adhesion layer. Basically, the yield stress of the adhesive is smaller than that of adherents. Accordingly, the adhesion layer gets to plastic deformation earlier than the adherents under the yield stress of adherents. Therefore, we propose the three-dimensional FEA model which is applied a nonlinear elastic region to the adhesion layer. The nonlinear elastic region was calculated by a bilinear approximation. We compared the analysis results with the tensile test results to confirm whether the analysis model has usefulness. As a result, the analysis results agreed with the tensile test results. And, we confirmed that the analysis model has usefulness. As a result that the three-dimensional FEA model was used to the analysis, it was confirmed that an out-of-plane deformation occurred to the patched plate with a circular hole. The out-of-plane deformation causes stress increase of the patched plate with a circular hole. Therefore, we investigate that the out-of-plane deformation affects relaxation of the stress concentration in the plate with a circular hole on this relaxation method. As a result, it was confirmed that the out-of-plane deformation inhibits relaxation of the stress concentration on the plate with a circular hole.

Keywords: stress concentration, patch, out-of-plane deformation, Finite Element Analysis

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Authors: Seema Paul, Jesper Oppelstrup, Roger Thunvik, Vladimir Cvetkovic

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Lake Victoria is the second largest fresh water body in the world, located in East Africa with a catchment area of 250,000 km², of which 68,800 km² is the actual lake surface. The hydrodynamic processes of the shallow (40–80 m deep) water system are unique due to its location at the equator, which makes Coriolis effects weak. The paper describes a St.Venant shallow water model of Lake Victoria developed in COMSOL Multiphysics software, a general purpose finite element tool for solving partial differential equations. Depth soundings taken in smaller parts of the lake were combined with recent more extensive data to resolve the discrepancies of the lake shore coordinates. The topography model must have continuous gradients, and Delaunay triangulation with Gaussian smoothing was used to produce the lake depth model. The model shows large-scale flow patterns, passive tracer concentration and water level variations in response to river and tracer inflow, rain and evaporation, and wind stress. Actual data of precipitation, evaporation, in- and outflows were applied in a fifty-year simulation model. It should be noted that the water balance is dominated by rain and evaporation and model simulations are validated by Matlab and COMSOL. The model conserves water volume, the celerity gradients are very small, and the volume flow is very slow and irrotational except at river mouths. Numerical experiments show that the single outflow can be modelled by a simple linear control law responding only to mean water level, except for a few instances. Experiments with tracer input in rivers show very slow dispersion of the tracer, a result of the slow mean velocities, in turn, caused by the near-balance of rain with evaporation. The numerical and hydrodynamical model can evaluate the effects of wind stress which is exerted by the wind on the lake surface that will impact on lake water level. Also, model can evaluate the effects of the expected climate change, as manifest in changes to rainfall over the catchment area of Lake Victoria in the future.

Keywords: bathymetry, lake flow and steady state analysis, water level validation and concentration, wind stress

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Authors: Abhishek Jha, Manoj Kumar

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This paper proposes a new type of two wheels differential type odometry to estimate the next position and orientation of mobile robots. The proposed odometry is composed for two independent wheels with respective encoders. The two wheels rotate independently, and the change is determined by the difference in the velocity of the two wheels. Angular velocities of the two wheels are measured by rotary encoders. A mathematical model is proposed for the mobile robots to precisely move towards the goal. Using measured values of the two encoders, the current displacement vector of a mobile robot is calculated by kinematics of the mathematical model. Using the displacement vector, the next position and orientation of the mobile robot are estimated by proposed odometry. Result of simulator experiment by the developed odometry is shown.

Keywords: mobile robot, odometry, unicycle, differential type, encoders, infrared range sensors, kinematic model

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Authors: Joanna Grzybowska, Magdalena Igras, Mariusz Ziółko

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Association rule learning is an approach for discovering interesting relationships in large databases. The analysis of relations, invisible at first glance, is a source of new knowledge which can be subsequently used for prediction. We used this data mining technique (which is an automatic and objective method) to learn about interesting affects associations in a corpus of emergency phone calls. We also made an attempt to match revealed rules with their possible situational context. The corpus was collected and subjectively annotated by two researchers. Each of 3306 recordings contains information on emotion: (1) type (sadness, weariness, anxiety, surprise, stress, anger, frustration, calm, relief, compassion, contentment, amusement, joy) (2) valence (negative, neutral, or positive) (3) intensity (low, typical, alternating, high). Also, additional information, that is a clue to speaker’s emotional state, was annotated: speech rate (slow, normal, fast), characteristic vocabulary (filled pauses, repeated words) and conversation style (normal, chaotic). Exponentially many rules can be extracted from a set of items (an item is a previously annotated single information). To generate the rules in the form of an implication X → Y (where X and Y are frequent k-itemsets) the Apriori algorithm was used - it avoids performing needless computations. Then, two basic measures (Support and Confidence) and several additional symmetric and asymmetric objective measures (e.g. Laplace, Conviction, Interest Factor, Cosine, correlation coefficient) were calculated for each rule. Each applied interestingness measure revealed different rules - we selected some top rules for each measure. Owing to the specificity of the corpus (emergency situations), most of the strong rules contain only negative emotions. There are though strong rules including neutral or even positive emotions. Three examples of the strongest rules are: {sadness} → {anxiety}; {sadness, weariness, stress, frustration} → {anger}; {compassion} → {sadness}. Association rule learning revealed the strongest configurations of affects (as well as configurations of affects with affect-related information) in our emergency phone calls corpus. The acquired knowledge can be used for prediction to fulfill the emotional profile of a new caller. Furthermore, a rule-related possible context analysis may be a clue to the situation a caller is in.

Keywords: data mining, emergency phone calls, emotional profiles, rules

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Authors: Gul Nihal Gugul, Merih Aydinalp-Koksal

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In this study, hourly energy consumption model of a single detached house in Ankara, Turkey is developed using ESP-r building energy simulation software. Natural gas is used for space heating, cooking, and domestic water heating in this two story 4500 square feet four-bedroom home. Hourly electricity consumption of the home is monitored by an automated meter reading system, and daily natural gas consumption is recorded by the owners during 2013. Climate data of the region and building envelope data are used to develop the model. The heating energy consumption of the house that is estimated by the ESP-r model is then compared with the actual heating demand to determine the performance of the model. Scenarios are applied to the model to determine the amount of reduction in the total energy consumption of the house. The scenarios are using photovoltaic panels to generate electricity, ground source heat pumps for space heating and solar panels for domestic hot water generation. Alternative scenarios such as improving wall and roof insulations and window glazing are also applied. These scenarios are evaluated based on annual energy, associated CO2 emissions, and fuel expenditure savings. The pay-back periods for each scenario are also calculated to determine best alternative energy source or technology option for this home to reduce annual energy use and CO2 emission.

Keywords: ESP-r, building energy simulation, residential energy saving, CO2 reduction

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Authors: Busra Mutlu Ipek, Merve Mutlu, Ahmet Mutlu

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Novel coronavirus COVID-19, which has recently influenced the world, poses a great threat to humanity. In order to overcome this challenging situation, scientists are working on developing effective vaccine against coronavirus. Many experts and researchers have also produced articles and done studies on this highly important subject. In this direction, this special topic was chosen for article to make a contribution to this area. The purpose of this article is to perform RNA sequence analysis of selected virus forms in the Coronaviridae family and predict/classify SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) from other selected complete genomes in coronaviridae family using proposed Artificial Neural Network(ANN) algorithm.

Keywords: Coronaviridae family, COVID-19, RNA sequencing, ANN, neural network

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Authors: Sergey Sorokin, Irina Sorokina, Alexander Yazenin

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We present a solution to the Maxmin u/E parameters estimation problem of possibility distributions in m-dimensional case. Our method is based on geometrical approach, where minimal area enclosing ellipsoid is constructed around the sample. Also we demonstrate that one can improve results of well-known algorithms in fuzzy model identification task using Maxmin u/E parameters estimation.

Keywords: possibility distribution, parameters estimation, Maxmin u\E estimator, fuzzy model identification

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Authors: Sasan Chalaki, Seyed Ali Mirgholange, Touba Nadri, Saman Chalaki

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In the current world, proper poultry nutrition has garnered special attention as one of the fundamental factors for enhancing their health and performance. Concerns related to the excessive use of antibiotics in the poultry industry and their role in antibiotic resistance have transformed this issue into a global challenge in public health and the environment. On the other hand, poultry farming plays a vital role as a primary source of meat and eggs in human nutrition, and improving their health and performance is crucial. One effective approach to enhance poultry nutrition is the utilization of the antibiotic properties of plant-based ingredients. The use of plant-based alternatives as natural antibiotics in poultry nutrition not only aids in improving poultry health and performance but also plays a significant role in reducing the consumption of synthetic antibiotics and preventing antibiotic resistance-related issues. Plants contain various antibacterial compounds, such as flavonoids, tannins, and essential oils. These compounds are recognized as active agents in combating bacteria. Plant-based antibiotics are compounds extracted from plants with antibacterial properties. They are acknowledged as effective substitutes for chemical antibiotics in poultry diets. The advantages of plant-based antibiotics include reducing the risk of resistance to chemical antibiotics, increasing poultry growth performance, and lowering the risk of disease transmission.

Keywords: poultry, antibiotics, essential oils, plant-based

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Authors: Sagar Shiwakoti, Narendra Man Shakya

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The lumped conceptual hydrological model HBV is applied to the Karnali River Basin to estimate runoff at several gauging stations and to analyze the changes in catchment hydrology and future flood magnitude due to climate change. The performance of the model is analyzed to assess its suitability to simulate streamflow in snow fed mountainous catchments. Due to the structural complexity, the model shows difficulties in modeling low and high flows accurately at the same time. It is observed that the low flows were generally underestimated and the peaks were correctly estimated except for some sharp peaks due to isolated precipitation events. In this study, attempt has been made to evaluate the importance of snow melt discharge in the runoff regime of the basin. Quantification of contribution of snowmelt to annual, summer and winter runoff has been done. The contribution is highest at the beginning of the hot months as the accumulated snow begins to melt. Examination of this contribution under conditions of increased temperatures indicate that global warming leading to increase in average basin temperature will significantly lead to higher contributions to runoff from snowmelt. Forcing the model with the output of HadCM3 GCM and the A1B scenario downscaled to the station level show significant changes to catchment hydrology in the 2040s. It is observed that the increase in runoff is most extreme in June - July. A shift in the hydrological regime is also observed.

Keywords: hydrological modeling, HBV light, rainfall runoff modeling, snow melt, climate change

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Authors: Lívia B. Meirelles, Erika C. A. N. Chrisman, Flávia B. de Andrade, Lilian C. M. de Oliveira

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True Boiling Point distillation (TBP) is one of the most common experimental techniques for the determination of petroleum properties. This curve provides information about the performance of petroleum in terms of its cuts. The experiment is performed in a few days. Techniques are used to determine the properties faster with a software that calculates the distillation curve when a little information about crude oil is known. In order to evaluate the accuracy of distillation curve prediction, eight points of the TBP curve and specific gravity curve (348 K and 523 K) were inserted into the HYSYS Oil Manager, and the extended curve was evaluated up to 748 K. The methods were able to predict the curve with the accuracy of 0.6%-9.2% error (Software X ASTM), 0.2%-5.1% error (Software X Spaltrohr).

Keywords: distillation curve, petroleum distillation, simulation, true boiling point curve

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Authors: Masa Popovac, Philip Fine

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Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have altered our social environments, and young people in particular have immersed themselves in the digital age. Despite countless benefits, younger ICT users are being exposed to various online risks such as contact with strangers, viewing of risky content, sending or receiving sexually themed images or comments (i.e. ‘sexting’) as well as cyber bullying. Parents may not be fully aware of the online spaces their children inhabit and often struggle to implement effective mediation strategies. This quantitative study explored (i) three types of online risks (contact risks, content risks and conduct risks), (ii) cyber bullying victimization and perpetration, and (iii) parental mediation among a sample of 689 South African adolescents aged between 12-17 years. Survey data was also collected for 227 of their parents relating to their perceptions of their child’s online experiences. A comparison between adolescent behaviors and parental perceptions was examined on the three variables in the study. Findings reveal various online risk taking behaviors. In terms of contact risks, 56% of adolescents reported having contact with at least one online stranger, with many meeting these strangers in person. Content risks included exposure to harmful information such as websites promoting extreme diets or self-harm as well as inappropriate content: 84% of adolescents had seen violent content and 75% had seen sexual content online. Almost 60% of adolescents engaged in conduct risks such as sexting. Eight online victimization behaviors were examined in the study and 79% of adolescents had at least one of these negative experiences, with a third (34%) defining this experience as cyber bullying. A strong connection between victimization and perpetration was found, with 63% of adolescents being both a victim and perpetrator. Very little parental mediation of ICT use was reported. Inferential statistics revealed that parents consistently underestimated their child’s online risk taking behaviors as well as their cyber bullying victimization and perpetration. Parents also overestimated mediation strategies in the home. The generational gap in the knowledge and use of ICTs is a barrier to effective parental mediation and online safety, since many negative online experiences by adolescents go undetected and can continue for extended periods of time thereby exacerbating the potential psychological and emotional distress. The study highlights the importance of including parents in online safety efforts.

Keywords: cyber bullying, online risk behaviors, parental mediation, South Africa

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Authors: Emin Z. Mahmud

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This paper presents the observations from a series of shaking-table tests done on a 1:1 scaled confined masonry wall model, with opening for a door – specimens CMDuS (confined masonry wall with opening for a door before strengthening) and CMDS (confined masonry wall with opening for a door after strengthening). Frequency and stiffness changes before and after GFRP (Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic) wall strengthening are analyzed. Definition of dynamic properties of the models was the first step of the experimental testing, which enabled acquiring important information about the achieved stiffness (natural frequencies) of the model. The natural frequency was defined in the Y direction of the model by applying resonant frequency search tests. It is important to mention that both specimens CMDuS and CMDS are subjected to the same effects. The tests are realized in the laboratory of the Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS), Skopje. The specimens were examined separately on the shaking table, with uniaxial, in-plane excitation. After testing, samples were strengthened with GFRP and re-tested. The initial frequency of the undamaged model CMDuS is 13.55 Hz, while at the end of the testing, the frequency decreased to 6.38 Hz. This emphasizes the reduction of the initial stiffness of the model due to damage, especially in the masonry and tie-beam to tie-column connection. After strengthening of the damaged wall, the natural frequency increases to 10.89 Hz. This highlights the beneficial effect of the strengthening. After completion of dynamic testing at CMDS, the natural frequency is reduced to 6.66 Hz.

Keywords: behaviour of masonry structures, Eurocode, frequency, masonry, shaking table test, strengthening

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Authors: Nasrin Akter, Prem Chhetri, Shams Rahman

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The present study tested Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model to explain the formation of business customers’ intention to use 3PL services in Bangladesh. The findings show that the TPB model has a good fit to the data. Based on theoretical support and suggested modification indices, a refined TPB model was developed afterwards which provides a better predictive power for intention. Consistent with the theory, the results of a structural equation analysis revealed that the intention to use 3PL services is predicted by attitude and subjective norms but not by perceived behavioral control. Further investigation indicated that the paths between (attitude and intention) and (subjective norms and intention) did not statistically differ between 3PL user and non-user. Findings of this research provide an evidence base to formulate business strategies to increase the use of 3PL services in Bangladesh to enhance productivity and to gain economic efficiency.

Keywords: Bangladesh, intention, third-party logistics, Theory of Planned Behavior

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Authors: B. Roostaii, H. Kazeminejad, S. Khakshournia

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The evolution of volume porosity previously obtained by using the existing low temperature high burn-up gaseous swelling model with progressive recrystallization for UO₂ fuel is utilized to study the degradation of irradiated UO₂ thermal conductivity calculated by the FRAPCON model of thermal conductivity. A porosity correction factor is developed based on the assumption that the fuel morphology is a three-phase type, consisting of the as-fabricated pores and pores due to intergranular bubbles whitin UO₂ matrix and solid fission products. The predicted thermal conductivity demonstrates an additional degradation of 27% due to porosity formation at burn-up levels around 120 MWd/kgU which would cause an increase in the fuel temperature accordingly. Results of the calculations are compared with available data.

Keywords: irradiation-induced recrystallization, matrix swelling, porosity evolution, UO₂ thermal conductivity

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Authors: Brian W. Mandikiana

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Homestead food production has the potential to alleviate hunger, improve health and nutrition for children and adults. This article examines the relationship between self-reported hunger and homestead food production using the ordered probit model. A sample of households participating in homestead food production was drawn from the first wave of the South African National Income Dynamics Survey, a nationally representative cross-section. The sample selection problem was corrected using an ordered probit model with sample selection approach. The findings show that homestead food production exerts a positive and significant impact on children and adults’ ability to cope with hunger and malnutrition. Yet, on the contrary, potential gains of homestead food production are threatened by shocks such as crop failure.

Keywords: agriculture, hunger, nutrition, sample selection

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Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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Authors: Anteneh Berhane Yeyi, Tefera Belachew

Abstract:

Any woman who could become pregnant is at risk of having a baby with neural tube defects (NTDs). A spontaneous aborted women with immediately preceding pregnancy may have an increased risk of develop NTDs. Ethiopia has one of the highest rates of micronutrient deficiencies, including folate and iron deficiency. Currently, in Ethiopia, NTDs is emerged as a public health concern. Even if Ethiopia, has implement different strategies for reducing maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity, there is no room in the health care system and lack of integration for preventing the risk of NTDs for those women who aborted spontaneously and women who discontinue long acting contraception to become pregnant. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of preconception picture-based nutrition education on knowledge and adherence to iron-folic acid supplement (IFAS) intake to reduce the risk of developing neural tube defects (NTDs) and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) among women who had a planned to pregnancy in Ethiopia, a country with a high burden of NTDs. Methodology: This study was conducted in Eastern Ethiopia. A double blinded parallel randomized controlled trial design was employed among women in the age group of 18-45 years who requested to interrupt modern contraceptive who have an intention to be pregnant and women with spontaneous abortion who refused to take a contraceptive. The interventional arm (n=122) received a preconception picture-based nutrition education with iron-folic acid supplement, and the control arm (n=122) received only preconception IFAS. In this study male partners were participated. Result: After three months of intervention the proportion of adherence to IFAS was 23% (n=56). With regard to adherence within the groups, 42.6% (n=52) in the intervention group and 3.3% (n=4) in the control group and the intervention group were significantly higher than in control group. In the intervention group the proportion of adherence to IFAS intake among participants increased by 40.1% and there were statistically difference (P<0.0001). The difference in difference between the two groups of adherence to IFAS intake was 37.6% and there were a statistical significance (P<0.0001). Level of knowledge between the groups did differ before and after intervention (P= 0.87 Vs P<0.0001). The overall the mean change in knowledge Mean (+SE) between group was 0.9 (+3.04 SE) and there were significant differences between two groups (P<0.001). Conclusion: In general this intervention is effective toward adherence to IFAS and a critical milestone to improve maternal health and reduce the neonate mortality due to NTDs and other advert effect of pregnancy and birth outcomes. This intervention is very short, simple, and cost effective and has potential for adaptation, feasible development to large-scale implementation in the existing health care system. Furthermore, this type of interventional approach has the potential to reduce the country's ANC program dropout rates and increase male partner’s participation on reproductive health.

Keywords: NTDs, IFAS, WRA, Ethiopia

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Authors: Poramatdha Chutimant

Abstract:

The objective of the research was to propose a model of teacher leadership in history instruction for utilization. Everett M. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations Theory is applied as theoretical framework. Qualitative method is to be used in the study, and the interview protocol used as an instrument to collect primary data from best practices who awarded by Office of National Education Commission (ONEC). Open-end questions will be used in interview protocol in order to gather the various data. Then, information according to international context of history instruction is the secondary data used to support in the summarizing process (Content Analysis). Dendrogram is a key to interpret and synthesize the primary data. Thus, secondary data comes as the supportive issue in explanation and elaboration. In-depth interview is to be used to collected information from seven experts in educational field. The focal point is to validate a draft model in term of future utilization finally.

Keywords: history study, nationalism, patriotism, responsible citizenship, teacher leadership

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Authors: Armin Bodaghkhani, Bruce Colbourne, Yuri S. Muzychka

Abstract:

The process of spray-cloud formation and flow kinematics produced from breaking wave impact on vertical and slant lab-scale bow-shaped models were experimentally investigated. Bubble Image Velocimetry (BIV) and Image Processing (IP) techniques were applied to study the various types of wave-model impacts. Different wave characteristics were generated in a tow tank to investigate the effects of wave characteristics, such as wave phase velocity, wave steepness on droplet velocities, and behavior of the process of spray cloud formation. The phase ensemble-averaged vertical velocity and turbulent intensity were computed. A high-speed camera and diffused LED backlights were utilized to capture images for further post processing. Various pressure sensors and capacitive wave probes were used to measure the wave impact pressure and the free surface profile at different locations of the model and wave-tank, respectively. Droplet sizes and velocities were measured using BIV and IP techniques to trace bubbles and droplets in order to measure their velocities and sizes by correlating the texture in these images. The impact pressure and droplet size distributions were compared to several previously experimental models, and satisfactory agreements were achieved. The distribution of droplets in front of both models are demonstrated. Due to the highly transient process of spray formation, the drag coefficient for several stages of this transient displacement for various droplet size ranges and different Reynolds number were calculated based on the ensemble average method. From the experimental results, the slant model produces less spray in comparison with the vertical model, and the droplet velocities generated from the wave impact with the slant model have a lower velocity as compared with the vertical model.

Keywords: spray charachteristics, droplet size and velocity, wave-body interactions, bubble image velocimetry, image processing

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: M. S. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri, F. Abbasi-Davani

Abstract:

Dosimetry is an indispensable and precious factor in patient treatment planning; to minimize the absorbed dose in vital tissues. In this study, In accordance with the proper characteristics of DOTATOC and ¹⁷⁷Lu, after preparing ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC at the optimal conditions for the first time in Iran, radionuclidic and radiochemical purity of the solution was investigated using an HPGe spectrometer and ITLC method, respectively. The biodistribution of the compound was assayed for treatment of adenocarcinoma breast cancer in bearing BALB/c mice. The results have demonstrated that ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC is a profitable selection for therapy of the tumors. Because of the vital role of internal dosimetry before and during therapy, the effort to improve the accuracy and rapidity of dosimetric calculations is necessary. For this reason, a new method was accomplished to calculate the absorbed dose through mixing between compartmental model, animal dosimetry and extrapolated data from animal to human and using MIRD method. Despite utilization of compartmental model based on the experimental data, it seems this approach may increase the accuracy of dosimetric data, confidently.

Keywords: ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC, biodistribution modeling, compartmental model, internal dosimetry

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Eugenia V. Klicheva

Abstract:

In modern conditions, scientific judgment of problems in developing mechanisms of value creation and risk management acquires special relevance. Formation of economic knowledge has resulted in the constant analysis of consumer behavior for all players from national and world markets. Effective mechanisms development of the demand analysis, crucial for consumer's characteristics of future production, and the risks connected with the development of this production are the main objectives of control systems in modern conditions. The modern period of economic development is characterized by a high level of globalization of business and rigidity of competition. At the same time, the considerable share of new products and services costs has a non-material intellectual nature. The most successful in Russia is the contemporary development of small innovative firms. Such firms, through their unique technologies and new approaches to process management, which form the basis of their intellectual capital, can show flexibility and succeed in the market. As a rule, such enterprises should have very variable structure excluding the tough scheme of submission and demanding essentially new incentives for inclusion of personnel in innovative activity. Realization of similar structures, as well as a new approach to management, can be constructed based on value-oriented management which is directed to gradual change of consciousness of personnel and formation from groups of adherents included in the solution of the general innovative tasks. At the same time, valuable changes can gradually capture not only innovative firm staff, but also the structure of its corporate partners. Introduction of new technologies is the significant factor contributing to the development of new valuable imperatives and acceleration of the changing values systems of the organization. It relates to the fact that new technologies change the internal environment of the organization in a way that the old system of values becomes inefficient in new conditions. Introduction of new technologies often demands change in the structure of employee’s interaction and training in their new principles of work. During the introduction of new technologies and the accompanying change in the value system, the structure of the management of the values of the organization is changing. This is due to the need to attract more staff to justify and consolidate the new value system and bring their view into the motivational potential of the new value system of the organization.

Keywords: value, risk, creation, problems, organization

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