Search results for: consumer purchasing decision

Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

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Authors: Ashwin Belle, Bryce Benson, Mark Salamango, Fadi Islim, Rodney Daniels, Kevin Ward

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A reliable, real-time, and non-invasive system that can identify patients at risk for hemodynamic instability is needed to aid clinicians in their efforts to anticipate patient deterioration and initiate early interventions. The purpose of this pilot study was to explore the clinical capabilities of a real-time analytic from a single lead of an electrocardiograph to correctly distinguish between rapid response team (RRT) activations due to hemodynamic (H-RRT) and non-hemodynamic (NH-RRT) causes, as well as predict H-RRT cases with actionable lead times. The study consisted of a single center, retrospective cohort of 21 patients with RRT activations from step-down and telemetry units. Through electronic health record review and blinded to the analytic’s output, each patient was categorized by clinicians into H-RRT and NH-RRT cases. The analytic output and the categorization were compared. The prediction lead time prior to the RRT call was calculated. The analytic correctly distinguished between H-RRT and NH-RRT cases with 100% accuracy, demonstrating 100% positive and negative predictive values, and 100% sensitivity and specificity. In H-RRT cases, the analytic detected hemodynamic deterioration with a median lead time of 9.5 hours prior to the RRT call (range 14 minutes to 52 hours). The study demonstrates that an electrocardiogram (ECG) based analytic has the potential for providing clinical decision and monitoring support for caregivers to identify at risk patients within a clinically relevant timeframe allowing for increased vigilance and early interventional support to reduce the chances of continued patient deterioration.

Keywords: critical care, early warning systems, emergency medicine, heart rate variability, hemodynamic instability, rapid response team

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Authors: Dagmawit Tewahido

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Purpose: This qualitative study was conducted to explore social norms around adolescent girls’ marriage practices in West Hararghe, Ethiopia, where early marriage is prohibited by law. Methods: Twenty Focus Group Discussions were conducted with Married and Unmarried adolescent girls, adolescent boys and parents of girls using locally developed vignettes. A total of 32 in-depth interviews were conducted with married and unmarried adolescent girls, husbands of adolescent girls and mothers-in-law. Key informant interviews were conducted with 36 district officials. Data analysis was assisted by Open Code computer software. The Social Norms Analysis Plot (SNAP) framework developed by CARE guided the development and analysis of vignettes. A thematic data analysis approach was utilized to summarize the data. Results: Early marriage is seen as a positive phenomenon in our study context, and girls who are not married by the perceived ideal age of 15 are socially sanctioned. They are particularly influenced by their peers to marry. Marrying early is considered a chance given by God and a symbol of good luck. The two common types of marriage are decided: 1) by adolescent girl and boy themselves without seeking parental permission (’Jalaa-deemaa’- meaning ‘to go along’), and 2) by just informing girl’s parents (‘Cabsaa’- meaning ‘to break the culture’). Relatives and marriage brokers also arrange early marriages. Girls usually accept the first marriage proposal regardless of their age. Parents generally tend not to oppose marriage arrangements chosen by their daughters. Conclusions: In the study context social norms encourage early marriage despite the existence of a law prohibiting marriage before the age of eighteen years. Early marriage commonly happens through consensual arrangements between adolescent girls and boys. Interventions to reduce early marriage need to consider the influence of Reference Groups on the decision makers for marriages, especially girls’ own peers.

Keywords: adolescent girls, social norms, early marriage, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: D. Naranchimeg, G. Ulziisaikhan

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Student dropout problem has not been recently investigated within the Mongolian higher education. A student dropping out is a personal decision, but it may cause unemployment and other social problems including low quality of life because students who are not completed a degree cannot find better-paid jobs. The research aims to determine percentage of at-risk students, and understand reasons for dropouts and to find a way to predict. The study based on the students of the Mongolian National University of Education including its Arkhangai branch school, National University of Mongolia, Mongolian University of Life Sciences, Mongolian University of Science and Technology, Mongolian National University of Medical Science, Ikh Zasag International University, and Dornod University. We conducted the paper survey by method of random sampling and have surveyed about 100 students per university. The margin of error - 4 %, confidence level -90%, and sample size was 846, but we excluded 56 students from this study. Causes for exclusion were missing data on the questionnaire. The survey has totally 17 questions, 4 of which was demographic questions. The survey shows that 1.4% of the students always thought to dropout whereas 61.8% of them thought sometimes. Also, results of the research suggest that students’ dropouts from university do not have relationships with their sex, marital and social status, and peer and faculty climate, whereas it slightly depends on their chosen specialization. Finally, the paper presents the reasons for dropping out provided by the students. The main two reasons for dropouts are personal reasons related with choosing wrong study program, not liking the course they had chosen (50.38%), and financial difficulties (42.66%). These findings reveal the importance of early prevention of dropout where possible, combined with increased attention to high school students in choosing right for them study program, and targeted financial support for those who are at risk.

Keywords: at risk students, dropout, faculty climate, Mongolian universities, peer climate

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Authors: Nana Katsitadze, Tamar Atanelishvili, Mariam Kutateladze, Alexandre Tushishvili

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In the modern world, tourism has emerged as one of the most powerful economic sectors, and due to its high economic performance, it is attractive to the countries with various levels of economic development. The purpose of the present paper, dedicated to discussing the current problems of tourism development, is to find ways which will contribute to bringing more benefits to the country from the sector. Georgia has been successfully developing leisure tourism for the last ten years, and at the next stage of development business, tourism gains particular importance for Georgia as a means of mitigating the negative socio-economic effects caused by the seasonality of tourism and as a high-cost tourism market. Therefore, the object of the paper is to study the factors that contribute to the development of business tourism. The paper uses the research methods such as system analysis, synthesis, analogy, as well as historical, comparative, economic, and statistical methods of analysis. The information base for the research is made up of the statistics on the functioning of the tourism market of Georgia and foreign countries as well as official data provided by international organizations in the field of tourism. Based on the experience of business tourism around the world and identifying the successful start of business tourism development in Georgia and its causing factors, a business tourism development model for Georgia has been developed. The model might be useful as a methodological material for developing a business tourism development concept for the countries with limited financial resources but rich in tourism resources like Georgia. On the initial stage of development (in absence of conventional centers), the suggested concept of business tourism development involves organizing small and medium-sized meetings both in large cities and in regions by using high-class hotel infrastructure and event management services. Relocation of small meetings to the regions encourages inclusive development of the sector based on increasing the awareness of these regions as tourist sites as well as the increase in employment and sales of other tourism or consumer products. Business tourism increases the number of hotel visitors in the non-seasonal period and improves hotel performance indicators, which enhances the attractiveness of investing in the hotel business. According to the present concept of business tourism development, at the initial stage, development of business tourism is based on the existing markets, including internal market, neighboring markets and the markets of geographically relatively near countries and at the next stage, the concept involves generating tourists from other relatively distant target markets. As a result, by gaining experience in business tourism, enhancing professionalism, increasing awareness and stimulating infrastructure development, the country will prepare the basis to move to a higher stage of tourism development. In addition, the experience showed that for attracting large customers, peculiarities of the field require activation of state policy and active use of marketing mechanisms and tools of the state.

Keywords: hotel industry development, MICE model, MICE strategy, MICE tourism in Georgia

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Authors: Aynura Valiyeva, Basil John Thomas

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Intra-firm communication is critical for building synergy amongst internal business units of a firm, where employees from various functional departments and ranks incorporate their decision-making, understanding of organizational objectives, as well as common norms and culture for better organizational effectiveness. This study builds on and assesses a framework of the causes and consequences of effective communication in business interactions between customer and supplier firms, and the path for efficient communication within a firm. The proposed study’s structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis based on 352 sample responses collected from firm representatives at different job positions ranging from marketing to logistics operations, reveals that, in the frame of reference of intra-organizational communication, organization characteristics and shared values, top management support and style of leadership, as well as information technology, are all significantly related to communication effectiveness. Furthermore, the frequency and variety of interactions enhance the outcome of communication, that improves a company’s performance. The results reveal that cultural factors are significantly related to communication effectiveness, as well as the shared beliefs and goals. In terms of organizational factors, leadership style, top management support and information technology are significant determinants of effective communication. Among the contextual factors, interaction frequency and diversity are found to be priority factors. This study also tests the relationship between supplier and supplier firm performance in the context of communication effectiveness, and finds that they are closely related, when trust and commitment is built between business partners. When firms do business in other multicultural contexts, language and shared values with destination country must be considered significant elements of communication process.

Keywords: business performance, intra-firm communication, inter-firm communication, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Hafiz Mushtaq Ahmad, Syed Faizan Ali Shah, Bushra Hussain, Muneeb Iqbal

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of organizational culture on internet marketing adoption. Moreover, the study intends to explore the role of organizational culture in the internet marketing adoption that helps business to achieve organizational growth and augmented market share. Background: With the enormous expansion of technology, organizations now need technology-based marketing paradigm in order to capture larger group of customers. Organizational culture plays a dominant and prominent role in the internet marketing adoption. Changes in the world economy have demolished current organizational competition and generating new technology standards and strategies. With all the technological advances, e-marketing has become one of the essential part of marketing strategies. Organizations require advance internet marketing strategies in order to compete in a global market. Methodology: The population of this study consists of telecom sector organizations of Pakistan. The sample size consists of 200 telecom sector employees. Data were gathered through the questionnaire instrument. The research strategy of this study is survey. The study uses a deductive approach. The sampling technique of this study is convenience sampling. Tentative Results: The study reveals that organizational culture played a vital role in the internet marketing adoption. The results show that there is a strong association between the organizational culture and internet marketing adoption. The results further show that flexible organizational culture helps organization to easily adopt internet marketing. Conclusion: The study discloses that flexible organizational culture helps organizations to easily adopt e-marketing. The study guides decision-makers and owners of organizations to recognize the importance of internet marketing strategy and help them to increase market share by using e-marketing. The study offers solution to the managers to develop flexible organizational culture that helps in internet marketing adoption.

Keywords: internet technology, internet marketing, marketing paradigm, organizational culture

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Authors: Elida Tafupenji Kamanga

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Cancer of the cervix remains one of the high causes of death among Malawian women. Despite the government introduction of free screening services throughout the country, patronage still remains low and lack of knowledge high. Given the critical role mass media plays in relaying different information to the public including health and its influence on health behaviours, the study sought to analyse Malawi media coverage of the disease and its effectiveness. The findings of the study will help inform media advocacy directed at changing any coverage impeding the effective dissemination of cervical cancer message which consequently will help increase awareness and accessing of screening behaviours among women. A content analysis of 29 newspapers and promotional messages on cervical from a local radio station was conducted for the period from 2012 to 2015. Overall the results showed media coverage in terms of content and frequency increased for the four-year period. However, of concern was the quality of information both media presented to the public. The lapse in information provided means there is little education taking place through the media which could be contributing to the knowledge gap the women have thereby affecting their decision to screen. Also lack of adequate funding to media institutions and lack of collaboration between media institutions and stakeholders involved in the fight against the disease were noted as other contributing factors to low coverage of the disease. Designing messages that are not only informative and educative but also innovative may help increase awareness; improve the knowledge gap and potential adoption of preventive screening behaviour by Malawian women. Conversely, good communication between the media institutions and researchers involved in the fight against the disease through the channelling of new findings back to the public as well as increasing funding towards similar cause should be considered.

Keywords: cervical cancer, effectiveness, media coverage, screening

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Authors: Gertrude I. Hewapathirana, Loi A. Nguyen, Mohammed M. Mostafa

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Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and tools are swiftly integrating into many functions of all organizations as a competitive drive to enhance innovations, productivity, efficiency, faster and precise decision making to keep up with rapid changes in the global business arena. Despite increasing research on AI technologies in production, manufacturing, and information management, AI in human resource disciplines is still lagging. Though a few research studies on HR informatics, recruitment, and HRM in general, how to integrate AI in other HR functional disciplines (e.g., compensation, training, mentoring and coaching, employee motivation) is rarely researched. Many inconsistencies of research hinder developing up-to-date knowledge on AI in HR disciplines. Therefore, exploring eight research questions, using bibliometric network analysis combined with a meta-analysis of published research literature. The authors attempt to generate knowledge on the role of AI in improving the efficiency of HR functional disciplines. To advance the knowledge for the benefit of researchers, academics, policymakers, and practitioners, the study highlights the types of AI innovations and outcomes, trends, gaps, themes and topics, fast-moving disciplines, key players, and future directions.AI in HR informatics in high tech firms is the dominant theme in many research publications. While there is increasing attention from researchers and practitioners, there are many gaps between the promise, potential, and real AI applications in HR disciplines. A higher knowledge gap raised many unanswered questions regarding legal, ethical, and morale aspects of AI in HR disciplines as well as the potential contributions of AI in HR disciplines that may guide future research directions. Though the study provides the most current knowledge, it is limited to peer-reviewed empirical, theoretical, and conceptual research publications stored in the WoS database. The implications for theory, practice, and future research are discussed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, human resources, bibliometric analysis, research directions

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Authors: Claudeny Simone Alves Santana, Alexandre Simas De Medeiros, Marcelino Aurélio Vieira Da Silva

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The aim of the study was to assess the performance of pavements over time, considering the principles of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and the ability to withstand vehicle loads and associated environmental impacts. Within the study boundary, pavement design was conducted using the Mechanistic-Empirical Method, adopting criteria based on pavement cracking and wheel path rutting while also considering factors such as soil characteristics, material thickness, and the distribution of forces exerted by vehicles. The Ecoinvent® 3.6 database and SimaPro® software were employed to calculate emissions, and SICRO 3 information was used to estimate costs. Consequently, the study sought to identify the service that had the greatest impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The results were compared for design life periods of 10 and 30 years, considering structural performance and load-bearing capacity. Additionally, environmental impacts in terms of CO2 emissions per standard axle and construction costs in dollars per standard axle were analyzed. Based on the conducted analyses, it was possible to determine which pavement exhibited superior performance over time, considering technical, environmental, and economic criteria. One of the findings indicated that the mechanical characteristics of the soils used in the pavement layer directly influence the thickness of the pavement and the quantity of greenhouse gases, with a difference of approximately 7000 Kg CO2 Eq. The transportation service was identified as having the most significant negative impact. Other notable observations are that the study can contribute to future project guidelines and assist in decision-making regarding the selection of the most suitable pavement in terms of durability, load-bearing capacity, and sustainability.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, greenhouse gases, urban paving, service cost

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Authors: Calvin Rong, Regina Agassian, Mindy Engle-Friedman

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Climate changes, including rising sea levels and increases in global temperature, can have major effects on resource availability, leading to increased competition for resources and rising food prices. The abstract nature and often delayed consequences of many ecological problems cause people focus on immediate, specific, and personal events and circumstances that compel immediate and emotional involvement. This finding may be explained by the challenges humans have in imagining themselves in the future, a shortcoming that interferes with decision-making involving far-off rewards, and leads people to indicate a lower concern toward the future than to present circumstances. The present study sought to assess whether priming people to think of themselves in the future might strengthen the connection to their future selves and stimulate environmentally-protective behavior. We hypothesize that priming participants to think about themselves in the future would increase concern for the future environment. 45 control participants were primed to think about themselves in the present, and 42 participants were primed to think about themselves in the futures. After priming, the participants rated their concern over access to clean water, food, and energy on a scale of 1 to 10. They also rated their predicted care levels for the environment at age points 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 on a scale of 1(not at all) to 10 (very much). Predicted care levels at age 90 for the experimental group was significantly higher than for the control group. Overall the experimental group rated their concern for resources higher than the control. In comparison to the control group (M=7.60, SD=2.104) participants in the experimental group had greater concern for clean water (M=8.56, SD=1.534). In comparison to the control group (M=7.49, SD=2.041) participants in the experimental group were more concerned about food resources (M=8.41, SD=1.830). In comparison to the control group (M=7.22, SD=1.999) participants in the experimental group were more concerned about energy resources (M=8.07, SD=1.967). This study assessed whether a priming strategy could be used to encourage pro-environmental practices that protect limited resources. Future-self priming helped participants see past short term issues and focus on concern for the future environment.

Keywords: climate change, future, priming, global warming

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Authors: Julia Terlet, Thomas H. Beach, Yacine Rezgui

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Urbanization, population growth, climate change and the current increase in water demand have made the adoption of innovative demand management strategies crucial to the water industry. Water conservation in urban areas has to be improved by encouraging consumers to adopt more sustainable habits and behaviours. This includes informing and educating them about their households’ water consumption and advising them about ways to achieve significant savings on a daily basis. This paper presents a study conducted in the context of the European FP7 WISDOM Project. By integrating innovative Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) frameworks, this project aims at achieving a change in water savings. More specifically, behavioural change will be attempted by implementing smart meters and in-home displays in a trial group of selected households within Cardiff (UK). Using this device, consumers will be able to receive feedback and information about their consumption but will also have the opportunity to compare their consumption to the consumption of other consumers and similar households. Following an initial survey, it appeared necessary to implement these in-home displays in a way that matches consumer's motivations to save water. The results demonstrated the importance of various factors influencing people’s daily water consumption. Both the relevant literature on the subject and the results of our survey therefore led us to include within the in-home device a variety of elements. It first appeared crucial to make consumers aware of the economic aspect of water conservation and especially of the significant financial savings that can be achieved by reducing their household’s water consumption on the long term. Likewise, reminding participants of the impact of their consumption on the environment by making them more aware of water scarcity issues around the world will help increasing their motivation to save water. Additionally, peer pressure and social comparisons with neighbours and other consumers, accentuated by the use of online social networks such as Facebook or Twitter, will likely encourage consumers to reduce their consumption. Participants will also be able to compare their current consumption to their past consumption and to observe the consequences of their efforts to save water through diverse graphs and charts. Finally, including a virtual water game within the display will help the whole household, children and adults, to achieve significant reductions by providing them with simple tips and advice to save water on a daily basis. Moreover, by setting daily and weekly goals for them to reach, the game will expectantly generate cooperation between family members. Members of each household will indeed be encouraged to work together to reduce their water consumption within different rooms of the house, such as the bathroom, the kitchen, or the toilets. Overall, this study will allow us to understand the elements that attract consumers the most and the features that are most commonly used by the participants. In this way, we intend to determine the main factors influencing water consumption in order to identify the measures that will most encourage water conservation in both the long and short term.

Keywords: behavioural change, ICT technologies, water consumption, water conservation

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Naoki Suzuki, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Swastika Roshni, Paras Nath, Alok Kalla

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Albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) is one of the commercially important species of tuna in the North Pacific region. Despite the long history of albacore fisheries in the Pacific, its ecological characteristics are not sufficiently understood. The effects of changing climate on numerous commercially and ecologically important fish species including albacore tuna have been documented over the past decades. The objective of this study was to explore and elucidate the relationship of environmental variables with the stock parameters of albacore tuna. The relationship of the North Pacific albacore tuna recruitment (R), spawning stock biomass (SSB) and recruits per spawning biomass (RPS) from 1970 to 2012 with the environmental factors of sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific warm pool index (PWI) was construed. SST and PDO were used as independent variables with SSB to construct stock reproduction models for R and RPS as they showed most significant relationship with the dependent variables. ENSO and PWI were excluded due to collinearity effects with SST and PDO. Model selections were based on R2 values, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and significant parameter estimates at p<0.05. Models with single independent variables of SST, PDO, ENSO and PWI were also constructed to illuminate their individual effect on albacore R and RPS. From the results it can be said that SST and PDO resulted in the most significant models for reproducing North Pacific albacore tuna R and RPS time series. SST has the highest impact on albacore R and RPS when comparing models with single environmental variables. It is important for fishery managers and decision makers to incorporate the findings into their albacore tuna management plans for the North Pacific Oceanic region.

Keywords: Albacore tuna, El Niño southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Sarah Ullrich, Juliane Rolle, Christian Beste, Nicole Wolff

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Inhibition and cognitive flexibility are essential parts of executive functions in our daily lives, as they enable the avoidance of unwanted responses or selectively switch between mental processes to generate appropriate behavior. There is growing interest in improving inhibition and response selection through brief mindfulness-based meditations. Arguably, open-monitoring meditation (OMM) improves inhibitory and flexibility performance by optimizing cognitive control and information processing. Yet, the underlying neurophysiological processes have been poorly studied. Using the Simon-Go/Nogo paradigm, the present work examined the effect of a single 15-minute smartphone app-based OMM on inhibitory performance and response selection in meditation novices. We used both behavioral and neurophysiological measures (event-related potentials, ERPs) to investigate which subprocesses of response selection and inhibition are altered after OMM. The study was conducted in a randomized crossover design with N = 32 healthy adults. We thereby investigated Go and Nogo trials in the paradigm. The results show that as little as 15 minutes of OMM can improve response selection and inhibition at behavioral and neurophysiological levels. More specifically, OMM reduces the rate of false alarms, especially during Nogo trials regardless of congruency. It appears that OMM optimizes conflict processing and response inhibition compared to no meditation, also reflected in the ERP N2 and P3 time windows. The results may be explained by the meta control model, which argues in terms of a specific processing mode with increased flexibility and inclusive decision-making under OMM. Importantly, however, the effects of OMM were only evident when there was the prior experience with the task. It is likely that OMM provides more cognitive resources, as the amplitudes of these EKPs decreased. OMM novices seem to induce finer adjustments during conflict processing after familiarization with the task.

Keywords: EEG, inhibition, meditation, Simon Nogo

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Authors: Eyob Seife, Tesfalem Teshome, Bereket Seyoum, Behailu Getachew, Yohans Demis

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Developing countries continue to face preventable communicable diseases, such as vaccine-preventable diseases. The Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) was established by the World Health Organization in 1974 to control these diseases. Health data use is crucial in decision-making, but ensuring data quality remains challenging. The study aimed to assess the accuracy ratio, timeliness, and quality index of regular immunization programme data in the Birkod district of the Somali Region, Ethiopia. For poor data quality, technical, contextual, behavioral, and organizational factors are among contributors. The study used a quantitative cross-sectional design conducted in September 2022GC using WHO-recommended data quality self-assessment tools. The accuracy ratio and timeliness of reports on regular immunization programmes were assessed for two health centers and three health posts in the district for one fiscal year. Moreover, the quality index assessment was conducted at the district level and health facilities by trained assessors. The study found poor data quality in the accuracy ratio and timeliness of reports at all health units, which includes zeros. Overreporting was observed for most facilities, particularly at the health post level. Health centers showed a relatively better accuracy ratio than health posts. The quality index assessment revealed poor quality at all levels. The study recommends that responsible bodies at different levels improve data quality using various approaches, such as the capacitation of health professionals and strengthening the quality index components. The study highlighted the need for attention to data quality in general, specifically at the health post level, and improving the quality index at all levels, which is essential.

Keywords: Birkod District, data quality, quality index, regular immunization programme, Somali Region-Ethiopia

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Authors: Caren Hilger, Silke Burkert, Friederike Kendel

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Men with localized prostate cancer (PCa) have to choose among different treatment options, such as active surveillance (AS) and radical prostatectomy (RP). All available treatment options may be accompanied by specific psychological or physiological side effects. Depending on the nature and extent of these side effects, patients are more or less likely to be satisfied or to struggle with their treatment decision in the long term. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess and explain decisional regret in men with localized PCa. The role of erectile functioning as one of the main physiological side effects of invasive PCa treatment, depressive symptoms as a common psychological side effect, and the association of erectile functioning and depressive symptoms with decisional regret were investigated. Men with localized PCa initially managed with AS or RP (N=292) were matched according to length of therapy (mean 47.9±15.4 months). Subjects completed mailed questionnaires assessing decisional regret, changes in erectile functioning, depressive symptoms, and sociodemographic variables. Clinical data were obtained from case report forms. Differences among the two treatment groups (AS and RP) were calculated using t-tests and χ²-tests, relationships of decisional regret with erectile functioning and depressive symptoms were computed using multiple regression. Men were on average 70±7.2 years old. The two treatment groups differed markedly regarding decisional regret (p<.001, d=.50), changes in erectile functioning (p<.001, d=1.2), and depressive symptoms (p=.01, d=.30), with men after RP reporting higher values, respectively. Regression analyses showed that after adjustment for age, tumor risk category, and changes in erectile functioning, depressive symptoms were still significantly associated with decisional regret (B=0.52, p<.001). Additionally, when predicting decisional regret, the interaction of changes in erectile functioning and depressive symptoms reached significance for men after RP (B=0.52, p<.001), but not for men under AS (B=-0.16, p=.14). With increased changes in erectile functioning, the association of depressive symptoms with decisional regret became stronger in men after RP. Decisional regret is a phenomenon more prominent in men after RP than in men under AS. Erectile functioning and depressive symptoms interact in their prediction of decisional regret. Screening and treating depressive symptoms might constitute a starting point for interventions aiming to reduce decisional regret in this target group.

Keywords: active surveillance, decisional regret, depressive symptoms, erectile functioning, prostate cancer, radical prostatectomy

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Authors: Marina Shakleina, Konstantin Shaklein, Stanislav Yakiro

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The digitalization of modern human life over the last decade has facilitated the acquisition, storage, and processing of data, which are used to detect changes in consumer preferences and to improve the internal efficiency of the production process. This emerging trend has attracted academic interest in the use of big data in research. The study focuses on modeling the social comfort of the Russian population for the period 2010-2021 using big data. Big data provides enormous opportunities for understanding human interactions at the scale of society with plenty of space and time dynamics. One of the most popular big data sources is Google Trends. The methodology for assessing social comfort using big data involves several steps: 1. 574 words were selected based on the Harvard IV-4 Dictionary adjusted to fit the reality of everyday Russian life. The set of keywords was further cleansed by excluding queries consisting of verbs and words with several lexical meanings. 2. Search queries were processed to ensure comparability of results: the transformation of data to a 10-point scale, elimination of popularity peaks, detrending, and deseasoning. The proposed methodology for keyword search and Google Trends processing was implemented in the form of a script in the Python programming language. 3. Block and summary integral indicators of social comfort were constructed using the first modified principal component resulting in weighting coefficients values of block components. According to the study, social comfort is described by 12 blocks: ‘health’, ‘education’, ‘social support’, ‘financial situation’, ‘employment’, ‘housing’, ‘ethical norms’, ‘security’, ‘political stability’, ‘leisure’, ‘environment’, ‘infrastructure’. According to the model, the summary integral indicator increased by 54% and was 4.631 points; the average annual rate was 3.6%, which is higher than the rate of economic growth by 2.7 p.p. The value of the indicator describing social comfort in Russia is determined by 26% by ‘social support’, 24% by ‘education’, 12% by ‘infrastructure’, 10% by ‘leisure’, and the remaining 28% by others. Among 25% of the most popular searches, 85% are of negative nature and are mainly related to the blocks ‘security’, ‘political stability’, ‘health’, for example, ‘crime rate’, ‘vulnerability’. Among the 25% most unpopular queries, 99% of the queries were positive and mostly related to the blocks ‘ethical norms’, ‘education’, ‘employment’, for example, ‘social package’, ‘recycling’. In conclusion, the introduction of the latent category ‘social comfort’ into the scientific vocabulary deepens the theory of the quality of life of the population in terms of the study of the involvement of an individual in the society and expanding the subjective aspect of the measurements of various indicators. Integral assessment of social comfort demonstrates the overall picture of the development of the phenomenon over time and space and quantitatively evaluates ongoing socio-economic policy. The application of big data in the assessment of latent categories gives stable results, which opens up possibilities for their practical implementation.

Keywords: big data, Google trends, integral indicator, social comfort

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Authors: Charirat Kusonwiriyawong, Supha Photichan, Wannarut Chutibutr

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Soil test kits for rapid analysis of the organic matter, available phosphorus and exchangeable potassium were developed to drive a low-cost field testing kit to farmers. The objective was to provide a decision tool for improving soil fertility. One aspect of soil test kit development was ease of use which is a time requirement for completing organic matter, available phosphorus and exchangeable potassium test in one soil sample. This testing kit required only two extractions and utilized no filtration consuming approximately 15 minutes per sample. Organic matter was principally created by oxidizing carbon KMnO₄ using the standard color chart. In addition, modified single extractant (Mehlich I) was applied to extract available phosphorus and exchangeable potassium. Molybdenum blue method and turbidimetric method using standard color chart were adapted to analyze available phosphorus and exchangeable potassium, respectively. Modified single extractant using in soil test kits were highly significant matching with analytical laboratory results (r=0.959** and 0.945** for available phosphorus and exchangeable potassium, respectively). Linear regressions were statistically calculated between modified single extractant and standard laboratory analysis (y=0.9581x-12.973 for available phosphorus and y=0.5372x+15.283 for exchangeable potassium, respectively). These equations were calibrated to formulate a fertilizer rate recommendation for specific corps. To validate quality, soil test kits were distributed to farmers and extension workers. We found that the accuracy of soil test kits were 71.0%, 63.9% and 65.5% for organic matter, available phosphorus, and exchangeable potassium, respectively. The quantitative survey was also conducted in order to assess their satisfaction with soil test kits. The survey showed that more than 85% of respondents said these testing kits were more convenient, economical and reliable than the other commercial soil test kits. Based upon the finding of this study, soil test kits can be another alternative for providing soil analysis and fertility recommendations when a soil testing laboratory is not available.

Keywords: available phosphorus, exchangeable potassium, modified single extractant, organic matter, soil test kits

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Authors: Rosario Carmona

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This article aims to discuss the importance of indigenous people participation in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Specifically, it analyses different understandings of climate vulnerability among diverse actors involved in climate change policies in Chile: indigenous people, state officials, and academics. These data were collected through participant observation and interviews conducted during October 2017 and January 2019 in Chile. Following Karen O’Brien, there are two types of vulnerability, outcome vulnerability and contextual vulnerability. How vulnerability to climate change is understood determines the approach, which actors are involved and which knowledge is considered to address it. Because climate change is a very complex phenomenon, it is necessary to transform the institutions and their responses. To do so, it is fundamental to consider these two perspectives and different types of knowledge, particularly those of the most vulnerable, such as indigenous people. For centuries and thanks to a long coexistence with the environment, indigenous societies have elaborated coping strategies, and some of them are already adapting to climate change. Indigenous people from Chile are not an exception. But, indigenous people tend to be excluded from decision-making processes. And indigenous knowledge is frequently seen as subjective and arbitrary in relation to science. Nevertheless, last years indigenous knowledge has gained particular relevance in the academic world, and indigenous actors are getting prominence in international negotiations. There are some mechanisms that promote their participation (e.g., Cancun safeguards, World Bank operational policies, REDD+), which are not absent from difficulties. And since 2016 parties are working on a Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform. This paper also explores the incidence of this process in Chile. Although there is progress in the participation of indigenous people, this participation responds to the operational policies of the funding agencies and not to a real commitment of the state with this sector. The State of Chile omits a review of the structure that promotes inequality and the exclusion of indigenous people. In this way, climate change policies could be configured as a new mechanism of coloniality that validates a single type of knowledge and leads to new territorial control strategies, which increases vulnerability.

Keywords: indigenous knowledge, climate change, vulnerability, Chile

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Authors: Akram Rasheed

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Background: Simulation in the health care field has been increasingly used over the last years in the training of resuscitation and life support practices. It has shown the advantage of improving the decision-making and technical skills through deliberate practice and return demonstration. Local Problem: This article reports on the integration of simulation-based training (SBT) in the training program about proper team dynamics and leadership skills during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Method and Intervention: Training of 180 critical care nurses was conducted using SBT between 1st January and 30th 2020. We had conducted 15 workshops, with the integration of SBT using high fidelity manikins and using demonstration and return-demonstration approach to train the nursing staff about proper team dynamics and leadership skills during CPR. Results: After completing the SBT session, all 180 nurses completed the evaluation form. The majority of evaluation items were rated over 95% for the effectiveness of the education; four items were less than 95% (88–94%). Lower rated items considered training and practice time, improved competency, and commitment to apply to learn. The team dynamics SBT was evaluated as an effective means to improve team dynamics and leadership skills during CPR in the intensive care unit (ICU). Conclusion: The use of simulation-based training to improve team dynamics and leadership skills is an effective method for better patient management during CPR. Besides skills competency, closed-loop communication, clear messages, clear roles, and assignments, knowing one’s limitations, knowledge sharing, constructive interventions, re-evaluating and summarizing, and mutual respect are all important concepts that should be considered during team dynamics training. However, participants reported the need for a repeated practice opportunity to build competency.

Keywords: cardiopulmonary resuscitation, high fidelity manikins, simulation-based training, team dynamics

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Authors: Tesfay Gidey, Emiru Birhane, Ashenafi Manaye, Hailemariam Kassa, Tesfay Atsbha, Negasi Solomon, Hadgu Hishe, Aklilu Negussie, Petr Madera, Jose G. Borges

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The globally endangered Dracaena ombet is one of the ten dragon multipurpose tree species in arid ecosystems. Anthropogenic and natural factors are now impacting the sustainability of the species. This study was conducted to prioritize criteria and alternative strategies for the conservation of the species using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model by involving all relevant stakeholders in the Desa'a dry Afromontane forest in northern Ethiopia. Information about the potential alternative strategies and the criteria for their evaluation was first collected from experts, personal experiences, and literature reviews. Afterward, they were validated using stakeholders' focus group discussions. Five candidate strategies with three evaluation criteria were considered for prioritization using the AHP techniques. The overall priority ranking value of the stakeholders showed that the ecological criterion was deemed as the most essential factor for the choice of alternative strategies, followed by the economic and social criteria. The minimum cut-off strategy, combining exclosures with the collection of only 5% of plant parts from the species, soil and water conservation, and silviculture interventions, was selected as the best alternative strategy for sustainable D. ombet conservation. The livelihood losses due to the selected strategy should be compensated by the collection of non-timber forest products, poultry farming, home gardens, rearing small ruminants, beekeeping, and agroforestry. This approach may be extended to study other dragon tree species and explore strategies for the conservation of other arid ecosystems.

Keywords: conservation strategies, analytical hierarchy process model, Desa'a forest, endangered species, Ethiopia, overexploitation

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Authors: Yusif Habib

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The Volta River Basin (VRB) is a transboundary resource shared by Six (6) the West African States. It’s utilization spans across irrigation, hydropower generation, domestic/household water use, transportation, industrial processing, among others. Simultaneously, mineral resources such as gold are mined within the VRB catchment. Typically, the extraction/mining operation is earth-surface excavation; known as Artisanal and Small-scale mining. We developed a conceptual framework in the context of Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus to delineate the trade-offs and synergies between the mineral extractive operation’s impact on Agricultural systems, specifically, cereal crops (e.g. Maize, Millet, and Rice) and the environment (water and soil quality, deforestation, etc.) on the VRB. Thus, the study examined the trade-offs and synergies through the WEF nexus lens to explore the extent of an eventual overarching mining preference for gold exploration with high economic returns as opposed to the presumably low yearly harvest and household income from food crops production to inform intervention prioritization. Field survey (household, expert, and stakeholder consultation), bibliometric analysis/literature review, scenario, and simulation models, including land-use land cover (LULC) analyses, were conducted. The selected study area(s) in Ghana was the location where the mineral extractive operation’s presence and impact are widespread co-exist with the Agricultural systems. Overall, the study proposes mechanisms of the virtuous cycle through FEW Nexus instead of the presumably existing vicious cycle to inform decision making and policy implementation.

Keywords: agriculture, environmental sustainability, gold Mining, synergies, trade-off, water-energy-food nexus

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Eyad H. R. Fadda, Jawaher K. Al Rashdieah, Aysha H. Al Rashdieh

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Urban Sprawl is a phenomenon that many regions in the Sultanate of Oman suffer from in general and in Welayat Barka in particular. It is considered a human phenomenon that causes many negative effects as it has increased in the last time clearly, and this study aims to diagnose the current status of urban growth taking place in Walayat Barka. The objective of this study is to monitor and follow up on the most prominent changes and developments taking place in Barka in the period from 2002 to 2019 and provide suggestions to the decision-makers to reduce the negative effects of the phenomenon. The study methodology depends on the descriptive and analytical approach to describe the phenomenon and its analysis and knowledge of the factors that helped in urban expansion in the Barka, using a number of studies and interviews with the specialists, both in governmental and private institutions, as well as with individuals who own land, real estate, and others. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (ERDAS software) have been used to analyze the satellite images that helped in obtaining results that reflect the changes Barka, in addition to knowing the natural and human determinants that stand on Urban Sprawl Expansion. The study concluded that the geographical location of Barka has a significant role in its urban expansion, as it is the closest state to the capital Muscat, as this expansion continues toward the southern and south-western directions, as this expansion has significant negative effects represented in the low number of agricultural lands due to the continuous change in land use. In addition, it was found that there are two types of natural determinants of urban expansion in Barka, which are consumed land from the Sea of Oman and from the western sands.

Keywords: GIS applications, remote sensing, urbanization, urban sprawl expansion trends

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Authors: N. Nivedita, S. Durbha

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Critical Infrastructure (CI) consists of services and technological networks such as healthcare, transport, water supply, electricity supply, information technology etc. These systems are necessary for the well-being and to maintain effective functioning of society. Critical Infrastructures can be represented as nodes in a network where they are connected through a set of links depicting the logical relationship among them; these nodes are interdependent on each other and interact with each at other at various levels, such that the state of each infrastructure influences or is correlated to the state of another. Disruption in the service of one infrastructure nodes of the network during a disaster would lead to cascading and escalating disruptions across other infrastructures nodes in the network. The operation of Healthcare Infrastructure is one such Critical Infrastructure that depends upon a complex interdependent network of other Critical Infrastructure, and during disasters it is very vital for the Healthcare Infrastructure to be protected, accessible and prepared for a mass casualty. To reduce the consequences of a disaster on the Critical Infrastructure and to ensure a resilient Critical Health Infrastructure network, knowledge, understanding, modeling, and analyzing the inter-dependencies between the infrastructures is required. The paper would present inter-dependencies related to Healthcare Critical Infrastructure based on Hierarchical Coloured Petri Nets modeling approach, given a flood scenario as the disaster which would disrupt the infrastructure nodes. The model properties are being analyzed for the various state changes which occur when there is a disruption or damage to any of the Critical Infrastructure. The failure probabilities for the failure risk of interconnected systems are calculated by deriving a reachability graph, which is later mapped to a Markov chain. By analytically solving and analyzing the Markov chain, the overall vulnerability of the Healthcare CI HCPN model is demonstrated. The entire model would be integrated with Geographic information-based decision support system to visualize the dynamic behavior of the interdependency of the Healthcare and related CI network in a geographically based environment.

Keywords: critical infrastructure interdependency, hierarchical coloured petrinet, healthcare critical infrastructure, Petri Nets, Markov chain

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Authors: Matar Celine, Gaucel Sebastien, Gontard Nathalie, Guilbert Stephane, Guillard Valerie

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To increase the very short shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetable, Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) allows an optimal atmosphere composition to be maintained around the product and thus prevent its decay. This technology relies on the modification of internal packaging atmosphere due to equilibrium between production/consumption of gases by the respiring product and gas permeation through the packaging material. While, to the best of our knowledge, benefit of MAP for fresh fruits and vegetable has been widely demonstrated in the literature, its effect on shelf life increase has never been quantified and formalized in a clear and simple manner leading difficult to anticipate its economic and environmental benefit, notably through the decrease of food losses. Mathematical modelling of mass transfers in the food/packaging system is the basis for a better design and dimensioning of the food packaging system. But up to now, existing models did not permit to estimate food quality nor shelf life gain reached by using MAP. However, shelf life prediction is an indispensable prerequisite for quantifying the effect of MAP on food losses reduction. The objective of this work is to propose an innovative approach to predict shelf life of MAP food product and then to link it to a reduction of food losses and wastes. In this purpose, a ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was developed by coupling a new predictive deterioration model (based on visual surface prediction of deterioration encompassing colour, texture and spoilage development) with models of the literature for respiration and permeation. A major input of this modelling tool is the maximal percentage of deterioration (MAD) which was assessed from dedicated consumers’ studies. Strawberries of the variety Charlotte were selected as the model food for its high perishability, high respiration rate; 50-100 ml CO₂/h/kg produced at 20°C, allowing it to be a good representative of challenging post-harvest storage. A value of 13% was determined as a limit of acceptability for the consumers, permitting to define products’ shelf life. The ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was validated in isothermal conditions (5, 10 and 20°C) and in dynamic temperature conditions mimicking commercial post-harvest storage of strawberries. RMSE values were systematically lower than 3% for respectively, O₂, CO₂ and deterioration profiles as a function of time confirming the goodness of model fitting. For the investigated temperature profile, a shelf life gain of 0.33 days was obtained in MAP compared to the conventional storage situation (no MAP condition). Shelf life gain of more than 1 day could be obtained for optimized post-harvest conditions as numerically investigated. Such shelf life gain permitted to anticipate a significant reduction of food losses at the distribution and consumer steps. This food losses' reduction as a function of shelf life gain has been quantified using a dedicated mathematical equation that has been developed for this purpose.

Keywords: food losses and wastes, modified atmosphere packaging, mathematical modeling, shelf life prediction

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Authors: Dehni Abdellatif, Lounis Mourad

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The new approach of applied spatial geostatistics in materials sciences, agriculture accuracy, agricultural statistics, permitted an apprehension of managing and monitoring the water and groundwater qualities in a relationship with salt-affected soil. The anterior experiences concerning data acquisition, spatial-preparation studies on optical and multispectral data has facilitated the integration of correction models of electrical conductivity related with soils temperature (horizons of soils). For tomography apprehension, this physical parameter has been extracted from calibration of the thermal band (LANDSAT ETM+6) with a radiometric correction. Our study area is Oran region (Northern West of Algeria). Different spectral indices are determined such as salinity and sodicity index, the Combined Spectral Reflectance Index (CSRI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emissivity, Albedo, and Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR). The approach of geostatistical modeling of electrical conductivity (salinity), appears to be a useful decision support system for estimating corrected electrical resistivity related to the temperature of surface soils, according to the conversion models by substitution, the reference temperature at 25°C (where hydrochemical data are collected with this constraint). The Brightness temperatures extracted from satellite reflectance (LANDSAT ETM+) are used in consistency models to estimate electrical resistivity. The confusions that arise from the effects of salt stress and water stress removed followed by seasonal application of the geostatistical analysis in Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques investigation and monitoring the variation of the electrical conductivity in the alluvial aquifer of Es-Sénia for the salt-affected soil.

Keywords: geostatistical modelling, landsat, brightness temperature, conductivity

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Authors: Eric Wilson Santos Cabral, Marta Monteiro Da Costa Cruz, Rodrigo Pirola Pestana, Vivian Andréa Parreira

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In the transportation sector in Brazil, there is a great challenge that is the maintenance of profit in the face of the great variation in the price of diesel. This directly affects the variable cost of transport companies. Within the railways, part of the great challenges is to overcome the annual budget, cargo and ore transported, thus reducing costs compared to previous years, becoming more efficient each year. Within this scenario, the railway companies are looking for effective measures, aiming at reducing the ratio of liter of diesel consumed by KTKB (Kilometer Gross Ton multiplied by thousand). This ratio represents the indicator of energy efficiency of some railroads in Brazil and in other countries. In this study, we sought to analyze the behavior of the energy efficiency indicator on two parts: The first, with the application of technologies used in locomotives, such as the start-stop system of the diesel engine and the system of tracking and monitoring of fuel. The second, evaluation of the behavior of the variation of the type of cargo transported (loading mix). The study focused on locomotive technology will be carried out using statistical analysis, behavioral evaluation in different operating conditions, such as maneuvers for trains, service trains and freight trains. The analysis will also cover the evaluation of the loading mix made using statistical analysis of the existing railroad database, comparing the energy efficiency per loading mine and type of product. With the completion of this study, the railway undertakings should be able to better target decision-making in order to achieve substantial reductions in transport costs.

Keywords: railway transport, energy efficiency, railway technology, fuel consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Alokananda Ghosh, Shraban Sarkar

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The study aims to identify suitable sites for new hospitals with critical obstetric care facilities in Birbhum, one of the vulnerable and underserved districts of Eastern India, considering six main and 14 sub-criteria, using GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) approach. The criteria were identified through field surveys and previous literature. After collecting expert decisions, a pairwise comparison matrix was prepared using the Saaty scale to calculate the weights through AHP. On the contrary, objective weighting methods, i.e., Entropy and Criteria Importance through Interaction Correlation (CRITIC), were used to perform the MAUT. Finally, suitability maps were prepared by weighted sum analysis. Sensitivity analyses of AHP were performed to explore the effect of dominant criteria. Results from AHP reveal that ‘maternal death in transit’ followed by ‘accessibility and connectivity’, ‘maternal health care service (MHCS) coverage gap’ were three important criteria with comparatively higher weighted values. Whereas ‘accessibility and connectivity’ and ‘maternal death in transit’ were observed to have more imprint in entropy and CRITIC, respectively. While comparing the predictive suitable classes of these three models with the layer of existing hospitals, except Entropy-MAUT, the other two are pointing towards the left-over underserved areas of existing facilities. Only 43%-67% of existing hospitals were in the moderate to lower suitable class. Therefore, the results of the predictive models might bring valuable input in future planning.

Keywords: hospital site suitability, analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, entropy, criteria importance through interaction correlation, multi-criteria decision analysis

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Authors: Luke Power, Paul O'Leary

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Research has long described the enhancement of student engagement as a fundamental aim of delivering a consistent, lifelong benefit to student success across the multitude of dimensions a quality HE (higher education) experience offers. Engagement may take many forms, with Universities and Institutes across the world attempting to define the parameters which constitutes a successful student engagement framework and implementation strategy. These efforts broadly include empowering students, encouraging involvement, and the transfer of decision-making power through a variety of methods with the goal of obtaining a meaningful partnership between students and staff. As the Republic of Ireland continues to observe an increasing population transferring directly from secondary education to HE institutions, it falls on these institutions to research and develop effective strategies which insures the growing student population have every opportunity to engage with their education, research community, and staff. This research systematically reviews SPAs (student partnership agreements) which are currently in the process of being defined, and/or have been adopted at HE institutions, worldwide. Despite the demonstrated importance of a student-staff partnership to the overall student engagement experience, there is no obvious framework or model by which to begin this process. This work will therefore provide a novel analysis of student-staff agreements which will focus on examining the factors of success common to each and builds towards a workable and applicable framework using critical review, analysis of the key words, phraseology, student involvement, and the broadly applicable HE traits and values. Following the analysis, this work proposes SPA ‘toolkit’ with input from key stakeholders such as students, staff, faculty, and alumni. The resulting implications for future research and the lessons learned from the development and implementation of the SPA will aid the systematic implementation of student-staff agreements in Ireland and beyond.

Keywords: student engagement, student partnership agreements, student-staff partnerships, higher education, systematic review, democratising students, empowering students, student unions

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Authors: Abdel-Monem Sayed Mohamed

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Egypt rapidly growing development is accompanied by increasing levels of standard living particular in its urban areas. However, there is a limited experience in quantifying the sources of risk management in Egypt and in designing efficient strategies to keep away serious impacts of earthquakes. From the historical point of view and recent instrumental records, there are some seismo-active regions in Egypt, where some significant earthquakes had occurred in different places. The special tectonic features in Egypt: Aswan, Greater Cairo, Red Sea and Sinai Peninsula regions are the territories of a high seismic risk, which have to be monitored by up-to date technologies. The investigations of the seismic events and interpretations led to evaluate the seismic hazard for disaster prevention and for the safety of the dense populated regions and the vital national projects as the High Dam. In addition to the monitoring of the recent crustal movements, the most powerful technique of satellite geodesy GPS are used where geodetic networks are covering such seismo-active regions. The results from the data sets are compared and combined in order to determine the main characteristics of the deformation and hazard estimation for specified regions. The final compiled output from the seismological and geodetic analysis threw lights upon the geodynamical regime of these seismo-active regions and put Aswan and Greater Cairo under the lowest class according to horizontal crustal strains classifications. This work will serve a basis for the development of so-called catastrophic models and can be further used for catastrophic risk management. Also, this work is trying to evaluate risk of large catastrophic losses within the important regions including the High Dam, strategic buildings and archeological sites. Studies on possible scenarios of earthquakes and losses are a critical issue for decision making in insurance as a part of mitigation measures.

Keywords: b-value, Gumbel distribution, seismic and GPS data, strain parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 444