Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3430

Search results for: Gumbel distribution

3430 An Extension of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Authors: Serge Provost, Abdous Saboor


A q-analogue of the generalized extreme value distribution which includes the Gumbel distribution is introduced. The additional parameter q allows for increased modeling flexibility. The resulting distribution can have a finite, semi-infinite or infinite support. It can also produce several types of hazard rate functions. The model parameters are determined by making use of the method of maximum likelihood. It will be shown that it compares favourably to three related distributions in connection with the modeling of a certain hydrological data set.

Keywords: Extreme Value Theory, Gumbel distribution, generalized extreme value distribution, goodness-of-fit statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 169
3429 Parameter Estimation of Gumbel Distribution with Maximum-Likelihood Based on Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno Quasi-Newton

Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani


Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.

Keywords: Parameter Estimation, maximum likelihood, Gumbel distribution, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton

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3428 Reliability Analysis of Computer Centre at Yobe State University Using LRU Algorithm

Authors: V. V. Singh, Yusuf Ibrahim Gwanda, Rajesh Prasad


In this paper, we focus on the reliability and performance analysis of Computer Centre (CC) at Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The CC consists of three servers: one database mail server, one redundant and one for sharing with the client computers in the CC (called as a local server). Observing the different possibilities of the functioning of the CC, the analysis has been done to evaluate the various popular measures of reliability such as availability, reliability, mean time to failure (MTTF), profit analysis due to the operation of the system. The system can ultimately fail due to the failure of router, redundant server before repairing the mail server and switch failure. The system can also partially fail when a local server fails. The failed devices have restored according to Least Recently Used (LRU) techniques. The system can also fail entirely due to a cooling failure of the server, electricity failure or some natural calamity like earthquake, fire tsunami, etc. All the failure rates are assumed to be constant and follow exponential time distribution, while the repair follows two types of distributions: i.e. general and Gumbel-Hougaard family copula distribution.

Keywords: Reliability, availability Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, MTTF, internet data centre

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3427 Performance Analysis of LINUX Operating System Connected in LAN Using Gumbel-Hougaard Family Copula Distribution

Authors: V. V. Singh


In this paper we have focused on the study of a Linux operating system connected in a LAN (local area network). We have considered two different topologies STAR topology (subsystem-1) and BUS topology (subsystem-2) which are placed at two different places and connected to a server through a hub. In both topologies BUS topology and STAR topology, we have assumed 'n' clients. The system has two types of failure partial failure and complete failure. Further the partial failure has been categorized as minor partial failure and major partial failure. It is assumed that minor partial failure degrades the subsystem and the major partial failure brings the subsystem to break down mode. The system can completely failed due to failure of server hacking and blocking etc. The system is studied by supplementary variable technique and Laplace transform by taking different types of failure and two types of repairs. The various measures of reliability like availability of system, MTTF, profit function for different parametric values has been discussed.

Keywords: Hacking, blocking, star topology, bus topology, linux operating system, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, supplementary variable

Procedia PDF Downloads 313
3426 Determination of the Best Fit Probability Distribution for Annual Rainfall in Karkheh River at Iran

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi


This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Rainfall, Karkheh River, Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA

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3425 Reliability Analysis of Computer Centre at Yobe State University Nigeria under Different Repair Policies

Authors: Vijay Vir Singh


In this paper, we focus on the reliability and performance analysis of Computer Centre (CC) at Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The CC consists of three servers: one database mail server, one redundant and one for sharing with the client computers in the CC (called as local server). Observing the different possibilities of functioning of the CC, analysis has been done to evaluate the various reliability characteristics of the system. The system can completely fail due to failure of router, redundant server before repairing the mail server, and switch failure. The system can also partially fail when local server fails. The system can also fail completely due to a cooling failure, electricity failure or some natural calamity like earthquake, fire etc. All the failure rates are assumed to be constant while repair follows two types of distributions: general and Gumbel-Hougaard family copula.

Keywords: Reliability, availability Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, MTTF, internet data centre

Procedia PDF Downloads 343
3424 Estimation of the Upper Tail Dependence Coefficient for Insurance Loss Data Using an Empirical Copula-Based Approach

Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin


Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: Extreme Events, empirical copula, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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3423 Assessment Using Copulas of Simultaneous Damage to Multiple Buildings Due to Tsunamis

Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro


If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: Tsunamis, Copulas, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation

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3422 A Proposed Mechanism for Skewing Symmetric Distributions

Authors: M. T. Alodat


In this paper, we propose a mechanism for skewing any symmetric distribution. The new distribution is called the deflation-inflation distribution (DID). We discuss some statistical properties of the DID such moments, stochastic representation, log-concavity. Also we fit the distribution to real data and we compare it to normal distribution and Azzlaini's skew normal distribution. Numerical results show that the DID fits the the tree ring data better than the other two distributions.

Keywords: Normal Distribution, moments, Fisher information, symmetric distributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 463
3421 Stochastic Analysis of Linux Operating System through Copula Distribution

Authors: Vijay Vir Singh


This work is focused studying the Linux operating system connected in a LAN (local area network). The STAR topology (to be called subsystem-1) and BUS topology (to be called subsystem-2) are taken into account, which are placed at two different locations and connected to a server through a hub. In the both topologies BUS topology and STAR topology, we have assumed n clients. The system has two types of failures i.e. partial failure and complete failure. Further, the partial failure has been categorized as minor and major partial failure. It is assumed that the minor partial failure degrades the sub-systems and the major partial failure make the subsystem break down mode. The system may completely fail due to failure of server hacking and blocking etc. The system is studied using supplementary variable technique and Laplace transform by using different types of failure and two types of repair. The various measures of reliability for example, availability of system, reliability of system, MTTF, profit function for different parametric values have been discussed.

Keywords: Hacking, blocking, star topology, bus topology, linux operating system, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, supplementary variable

Procedia PDF Downloads 212
3420 A Flexible Pareto Distribution Using α-Power Transformation

Authors: Shumaila Ehtisham


In Statistical Distribution Theory, considering an additional parameter to classical distributions is a usual practice. In this study, a new distribution referred to as α-Power Pareto distribution is introduced by including an extra parameter. Several properties of the proposed distribution including explicit expressions for the moment generating function, mode, quantiles, entropies and order statistics are obtained. Unknown parameters have been estimated by using maximum likelihood estimation technique. Two real datasets have been considered to examine the usefulness of the proposed distribution. It has been observed that α-Power Pareto distribution outperforms while compared to different variants of Pareto distribution on the basis of model selection criteria.

Keywords: maximum likelihood estimation, pareto distribution, α-power transformation, moment generating function

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3419 Loss Analysis by Loading Conditions of Distribution Transformers

Authors: A. Bozkurt, C. Kocatepe, R. Yumurtaci, İ. C. Tastan, G. Tulun


Efficient use of energy, with the increase in demand of energy and also with the reduction of natural energy sources, has improved its importance in recent years. Most of the losses in the system from electricity produced until the point of consumption is mostly composed by the energy distribution system. In this study, analysis of the resulting loss in power distribution transformer and distribution power cable is realized which are most of the losses in the distribution system. Transformer losses in the real distribution system were analyzed by CYME Power Engineering Software program. These losses are disclosed for different voltage levels and different loading conditions.

Keywords: Power Cable, Distribution System, distribution transformer, technical losses

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
3418 Exponentiated Transmuted Weibull Distribution: A Generalization of the Weibull Probability Distribution

Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim


This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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3417 The Beta-Fisher Snedecor Distribution with Applications to Cancer Remission Data

Authors: K. A. Adepoju, O. I. Shittu, A. U. Chukwu


In this paper, a new four-parameter generalized version of the Fisher Snedecor distribution called Beta- F distribution is introduced. The comprehensive account of the statistical properties of the new distributions was considered. Formal expressions for the cumulative density function, moments, moment generating function and maximum likelihood estimation, as well as its Fisher information, were obtained. The flexibility of this distribution as well as its robustness using cancer remission time data was demonstrated. The new distribution can be used in most applications where the assumption underlying the use of other lifetime distributions is violated.

Keywords: outlier, maximum likelihood method, fisher-snedecor distribution, beta-f distribution

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3416 Wind Tunnel Tests on Ground-Mounted and Roof-Mounted Photovoltaic Array Systems

Authors: Chao-Yang Huang, Rwey-Hua Cherng, Chung-Lin Fu, Yuan-Lung Lo


Solar energy is one of the replaceable choices to reduce the CO2 emission produced by conventional power plants in the modern society. As an island which is frequently visited by strong typhoons and earthquakes, it is an urgent issue for Taiwan to make an effort in revising the local regulations to strengthen the safety design of photovoltaic systems. Currently, the Taiwanese code for wind resistant design of structures does not have a clear explanation on photovoltaic systems, especially when the systems are arranged in arrayed format. Furthermore, when the arrayed photovoltaic system is mounted on the rooftop, the approaching flow is significantly altered by the building and led to different pressure pattern in the different area of the photovoltaic system. In this study, L-shape arrayed photovoltaic system is mounted on the ground of the wind tunnel and then mounted on the building rooftop. The system is consisted of 60 PV models. Each panel model is equivalent to a full size of 3.0 m in depth and 10.0 m in length. Six pressure taps are installed on the upper surface of the panel model and the other six are on the bottom surface to measure the net pressures. Wind attack angle is varied from 0° to 360° in a 10° interval for the worst concern due to wind direction. The sampling rate of the pressure scanning system is set as high enough to precisely estimate the peak pressure and at least 20 samples are recorded for good ensemble average stability. Each sample is equivalent to 10-minute time length in full scale. All the scale factors, including timescale, length scale, and velocity scale, are properly verified by similarity rules in low wind speed wind tunnel environment. The purpose of L-shape arrayed system is for the understanding the pressure characteristics at the corner area. Extreme value analysis is applied to obtain the design pressure coefficient for each net pressure. The commonly utilized Cook-and-Mayne coefficient, 78%, is set to the target non-exceedance probability for design pressure coefficients under Gumbel distribution. Best linear unbiased estimator method is utilized for the Gumbel parameter identification. Careful time moving averaging method is also concerned in data processing. Results show that when the arrayed photovoltaic system is mounted on the ground, the first row of the panels reveals stronger positive pressure than that mounted on the rooftop. Due to the flow separation occurring at the building edge, the first row of the panels on the rooftop is most in negative pressures; the last row, on the other hand, shows positive pressures because of the flow reattachment. Different areas also have different pressure patterns, which corresponds well to the regulations in ASCE7-16 describing the area division for design values. Several minor observations are found according to parametric studies, such as rooftop edge effect, parapet effect, building aspect effect, row interval effect, and so on. General comments are then made for the proposal of regulation revision in Taiwanese code.

Keywords: Photovoltaic, wind tunnel test, aerodynamic force coefficient, ground-mounted, roof-mounted

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3415 Nonstationary Modeling of Extreme Precipitation in the Wei River Basin, China

Authors: Yiyuan Tao


Under the impact of global warming together with the intensification of human activities, the hydrological regimes may be altered, and the traditional stationary assumption was no longer satisfied. However, most of the current design standards of water infrastructures were still based on the hypothesis of stationarity, which may inevitably result in severe biases. Many critical impacts of climate on ecosystems, society, and the economy are controlled by extreme events rather than mean values. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the non-stationarity of precipitation extremes and model the precipitation extremes in a nonstationary framework. The Wei River Basin (WRB), located in a continental monsoon climate zone in China, is selected as a case study in this study. Six extreme precipitation indices were employed to investigate the changing patterns and stationarity of precipitation extremes in the WRB. To identify if precipitation extremes are stationary, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test, which is used to examine the occurrence of abrupt changes are adopted in this study. Extreme precipitation indices series are fitted with non-stationary distributions that selected from six widely used distribution functions: Gumbel, lognormal, Weibull, gamma, generalized gamma and exponential distributions by means of the time-varying moments model generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), where the distribution parameters are defined as a function of time. The results indicate that: (1) the trends were not significant for the whole WRB, but significant positive/negative trends were still observed in some stations, abrupt changes for consecutive wet days (CWD) mainly occurred in 1985, and the assumption of stationarity is invalid for some stations; (2) for these nonstationary extreme precipitation indices series with significant positive/negative trends, the GAMLSS models are able to capture well the temporal variations of the indices, and perform better than the stationary model. Finally, the differences between the quantiles of nonstationary and stationary models are analyzed, which highlight the importance of nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes in the WRB.

Keywords: non-stationary, extreme precipitation, GAMLSSS, Wei River Basin

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3414 Evaluation of Reliability Flood Control System Based on Uncertainty of Flood Discharge, Case Study Wulan River, Central Java, Indonesia

Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana


The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: Reliability, Uncertainty, hydrological model, design flood, Wulan river

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3413 Efficient Design of Distribution Logistics by Using a Model-Based Decision Support System

Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold


The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: Supply Chain Management, Distribution Logistics, Decision Support System, potential analyses

Procedia PDF Downloads 225
3412 Design of Distribution Network for Gas Cylinders in Jordan

Authors: Hazem J. Smadi


Performance of a supply chain is directly related to a distribution network that entails the location of storing materials or products and how products are delivered to the end customer through different stages in the supply chain. This study analyses the current distribution network used for delivering gas cylinders to end customer in Jordan. Evaluation of current distribution has been conducted across customer service components. A modification on the current distribution network in terms of central warehousing in each city in the country improves the response time and customer experience. 

Keywords: Supply Chain, jordan, distribution network, gas cylinder

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3411 A New Distribution and Application on the Lifetime Data

Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan


We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of real life data set.

Keywords: estimation, Marshall-Olkin distribution, maximum likelihood, Rayleigh distribution

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3410 The Current Situation of Ang Thong Province’s Court Doll Distribution

Authors: Phutthiwat Waiyawuththanapoom


This research is objected to study the pattern and channel of distribution of Ang Thong’s court doll OTOP product and try to develop the quality of distribution of the court doll product. The population of this research is 50 court doll manufacturers of Ang Thong’s court doll. The data and information was collected by using the questionnaire and use percentage, mean and standard deviation as an analysis tools. The distribution channel of Ang Thong’s court doll can be separated into 3 channels which are direct distribution from the manufacturer, via the middleman and via the co-operated manufacturing group. In the direct distribution from the manufacturer channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to how they keep the inventory. In the distribution via the middleman channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the distribution efficiency. But in the distribution via the co-operated manufacturing group, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the public relationship.

Keywords: Distribution, court doll, Ang Thong province, business and social sciences

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3409 Application of Hyperbinomial Distribution in Developing a Modified p-Chart

Authors: Shourav Ahmed, M. Gulam Kibria, Kais Zaman


Control charts graphically verify variation in quality parameters. Attribute type control charts deal with quality parameters that can only hold two states, e.g., good or bad, yes or no, etc. At present, p-control chart is most commonly used to deal with attribute type data. In construction of p-control chart using binomial distribution, the value of proportion non-conforming must be known or estimated from limited sample information. As the probability distribution of fraction non-conforming (p) is considered in hyperbinomial distribution unlike a constant value in case of binomial distribution, it reduces the risk of false detection. In this study, a statistical control chart is proposed based on hyperbinomial distribution when prior estimate of proportion non-conforming is unavailable and is estimated from limited sample information. We developed the control limits of the proposed modified p-chart using the mean and variance of hyperbinomial distribution. The proposed modified p-chart can also utilize additional sample information when they are available. The study also validates the use of modified p-chart by comparing with the result obtained using cumulative distribution function of hyperbinomial distribution. The study clearly indicates that the use of hyperbinomial distribution in construction of p-control chart yields much accurate estimate of quality parameters than using binomial distribution.

Keywords: control charts, cumulative distribution function, binomial distribution, hyper binomial distribution

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3408 A Study on Solutions to Connect Distribution Power Grid up to Renewable Energy Sources at KEPCO

Authors: Seung Yoon Hyun, Hyeong Seung An, Myeong Ho Choi, Sung Hwan Bae, Yu Jong Sim


In 2015, the southern part of the Korean Peninsula has 8.6 million poles, 1.25 million km power lines, and 2 million transformers, etc. It is the massive amount of distribution equipments which could cover a round-trip distance from the earth to the moon and 11 turns around the earth. These distribution equipments are spread out like capillaries and supplying power to every corner of the Korean Peninsula. In order to manage these huge power facility efficiently, KEPCO use DAS (Distribution Automation System) to operate distribution power system since 1997. DAS is integrated system that enables to remotely supervise and control breakers and switches on distribution network. Using DAS, we can reduce outage time and power loss. KEPCO has about 160,000 switches, 50%(about 80,000) of switches are automated, and 41 distribution center monitoring&control these switches 24-hour 365 days to get the best efficiency of distribution networks. However, the rapid increasing renewable energy sources become the problem in the efficient operation of distributed power system. (currently 2,400 MW, 75,000 generators operate in distribution power system). In this paper, it suggests the way to interconnect between renewable energy source and distribution power system.

Keywords: renewable, Distribution, connect, DAS (Distribution Automation System)

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3407 Water Distribution Uniformity of Solid-Set Sprinkler Irrigation under Low Operating Pressure

Authors: Manal Osman


Sprinkler irrigation system became more popular to reduce water consumption and increase irrigation efficiency. The water distribution uniformity plays an important role in the performance of the sprinkler irrigation system. The use of low operating pressure instead of high operating pressure can be achieved many benefits including energy and water saving. An experimental study was performed to investigate the water distribution uniformity of the solid-set sprinkler irrigation system under low operating pressure. Different low operating pressures (62, 82, 102 and 122 kPa) were selected. The range of operating pressure was lower than the recommended in the previous studies to investigate the effect of low pressure on the water distribution uniformity. Different nozzle diameters (4, 5, 6 and 7 mm) were used. The outdoor single sprinkler test was performed. The water distribution of single sprinkler, the coefficients of uniformity such as coefficient of uniformity (CU), distribution uniformity of low quarter (DUlq), distribution uniformity of low half (DUlh), coefficient of variation (CV) and the distribution characteristics like rotation speed, throw radius and overlapping distance are presented in this paper.

Keywords: low operating pressure, sprinkler irrigation system, water distribution uniformity

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3406 Fault Location Detection in Active Distribution System

Authors: R. Rezaeipour, A. R. Mehrabi


Recent increase of the DGs and microgrids in distribution systems, disturbs the tradition structure of the system. Coordination between protection devices in such a system becomes the concern of the network operators. This paper presents a new method for fault location detection in the active distribution networks, independent of the fault type or its resistance. The method uses synchronized voltage and current measurements at the interconnection of DG units and is able to adapt to changes in the topology of the system. The method has been tested on a 38-bus distribution system, with very encouraging results.

Keywords: Micro Grids, fault location detection, active distribution system, network operators

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3405 The Effect of Human Capital and Oil Revenue on Income Distribution in Real Sample

Authors: Marjan Majdi, MohammadAli Moradi, Elham Samarikhalaj


Income distribution is one of the most topics in macro economic theories. There are many categories in economy such as income distribution that have the most influenced by economic policies. Human capital has an impact on economic growth and it has significant effect on income distributions. The results of this study confirm that the effects of oil revenue and human capital on income distribution are negative and significant but the value of the estimated coefficient is too small in a real sample in period time (1969-2006).

Keywords: Human Capital, Income Distribution, gini coefficient, oil revenue

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3404 Reliability Analysis in Power Distribution System

Authors: R. A. Deshpande, P. Chandhra Sekhar, V. Sankar


In this paper, we discussed the basic reliability evaluation techniques needed to evaluate the reliability of distribution systems which are applied in distribution system planning and operation. Basically, the reliability study can also help to predict the reliability performance of the system after quantifying the impact of adding new components to the system. The number and locations of new components needed to improve the reliability indices to certain limits are identified and studied.

Keywords: Distribution System, reliability indices, urban feeder, rural feeder

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3403 Social Media as a Distribution Channel for Thailand’s Rice Berry Product

Authors: Phutthiwat Waiyawuththanapoom, Wannapong Waiyawuththanapoom, Pimploi Tirastittam


Nowadays, it is a globalization era which social media plays an important role to the lifestyle as an information source, tools to connect people together and etc. This research is object to find out about the significant level of the social media as a distribution channel to the agriculture product of Thailand. In this research, the agriculture product is the Rice Berry which is the cross-bred unmilled rice producing dark violet grain, is a combination of Hom Nin Rice and Thai Jasmine/ Fragrant Rice 105. Rice Berry has a very high nutrition and nice aroma so the product is in the growth stage of the product cycle. The problem for the Rice Berry product in Thailand is the production and the distribution channel. This study is to confirm that the social media is another option as the distribution channel for the product which is not a mass production product. This will be the role model for the other niche market product to select the distribution channel.

Keywords: Social Media, Distribution, rice berry, distribution channel

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3402 High-Resolution Flood Hazard Mapping Using Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model Anuga: Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa


Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: Flood, Flood Modeling, ANUGA

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3401 Performance Assessment of Three Unit Redundant System with Environmental and Human Failure Using Copula Approach

Authors: V. V. Singh


We have studied the reliability measures of a system, which consists of two subsystems i.e. subsystem-1 and subsystem-2 in series configuration under different types of failure. The subsystem-1 has three identical units in parallel configuration and operating under 2-out-of-3: G policy and connected to subsystem-2 in series configuration. Each subsystem has different types of failure and repair rates. An important cause for failure of system is unsuitability of the environmental conditions, like overheating, weather conditions, heavy rainfall, storm etc. The environmental failure is taken into account in the proposed repairable system. Supplementary variable technique is used to study of system and some traditional measures such as; availability, reliability, MTTF and profit function are obtained for different values of parameters. In the proposed model, some particular cases of failure rates are explicitly studied.

Keywords: Reliability, Availability, MTTF, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, environmental failure, human failure, profit analysis

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