Search results for: process quality management method

Authors: Jing Zhang, Yvonne Reinwald, Nick Poulson, Alicia El Haj, Chung See, Mike Somekh, Melissa Mather

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Biomedical imaging of native tissue using light offers the potential to obtain excellent structural and functional information in a non-invasive manner with good temporal resolution. Image contrast can be derived from intrinsic absorption, fluorescence, or scatter, or through the use of extrinsic contrast. A major challenge in applying optical microscopy to in vivo tissue imaging is the effects of light attenuation which limits light penetration depth and achievable imaging resolution. Recently Selective Plane Illumination Microscopy (SPIM) has been used to map the 3D distribution of fluorophores dispersed in biological structures. In this approach, a focused sheet of light is used to illuminate the sample from the side to excite fluorophores within the sample of interest. Images are formed based on detection of fluorescence emission orthogonal to the illumination axis. By scanning the sample along the detection axis and acquiring a stack of images, 3D volumes can be obtained. The combination of rapid image acquisition speeds with the low photon dose to samples optical sectioning provides SPIM is an attractive approach for imaging biological samples in 3D. To date all implementations of SPIM rely on the use of fluorescence reporters be that endogenous or exogenous. This approach has the disadvantage that in the case of exogenous probes the specimens are altered from their native stage rendering them unsuitable for in vivo studies and in general fluorescence emission is weak and transient. Here we present for the first time to our knowledge a label-free implementation of SPIM that has downstream applications in the clinical setting. The experimental set up used in this work incorporates both label-free and fluorescent illumination arms in addition to a high specification camera that can be partitioned for simultaneous imaging of both fluorescent emission and scattered light from intrinsic sources of optical contrast in the sample being studied. This work first involved calibration of the imaging system and validation of the label-free method with well characterised fluorescent microbeads embedded in agarose gel. 3D constructs of mammalian cells cultured in agarose gel with varying cell concentrations were then imaged. A time course study to track cell proliferation in the 3D construct was also carried out and finally a native tissue sample was imaged. For each sample multiple images were obtained by scanning the sample along the axis of detection and 3D maps reconstructed. The results obtained validated label-free SPIM as a viable approach for imaging cells in a 3D gel construct and native tissue. This technique has the potential use in a near-patient environment that can provide results quickly and be implemented in an easy to use manner to provide more information with improved spatial resolution and depth penetration than current approaches.

Keywords: bioimaging, optics, selective plane illumination microscopy, tissue imaging

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Authors: Eleonora Di Salvo, Antonio Panebianco, Graziella Ziino

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Background: Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a human pathogen that is widely distributed in marine environments. It is frequently isolated from raw seafood, particularly shellfish. Consumption of raw or undercooked seafood contaminated with V. parahaemolyticus may lead to acute gastroenteritis. Vibrio spp. has excellent resistance to low temperatures so it can be found in frozen products for a long time. Recently, the viable but non-culturable state (VBNC) of bacteria has attracted great attention, and more than 85 species of bacteria have been demonstrated to be capable of entering this state. VBNC cells cannot grow in conventional culture medium but are viable and maintain metabolic activity, which may constitute an unrecognized source of food contamination and infection. Also V. parahaemolyticus could exist in VBNC state under nutrient starvation or low-temperature conditions. Aim: The aim of the present study was to optimize methods and investigate V. parahaemolyticus VBNC cells and their presence in frozen bivalve molluscs, regularly marketed. Materials and Methods: propidium monoazide (PMA) was integrated with real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) targeting the tl gene to detect and quantify V. parahaemolyticus in the VBNC state. PMA-qPCR resulted highly specific to V. parahaemolyticus with a limit of detection (LOD) of 10-1 log CFU/mL in pure bacterial culture. A standard curve for V. parahaemolyticus cell concentrations was established with the correlation coefficient of 0.9999 at the linear range of 1.0 to 8.0 log CFU/mL. A total of 77 samples of frozen bivalve molluscs (35 mussels; 42 clams) were subsequently subjected to the qualitative (on alkaline phosphate buffer solution) and quantitative research of V. parahaemolyticus on thiosulfate-citrate-bile salts-sucrose (TCBS) agar (DIFCO) NaCl 2.5%, and incubation at 30°C for 24-48 hours. Real-time PCR was conducted on homogenate samples, in duplicate, with and without propidium monoazide (PMA) dye, and exposed for 45 min under halogen lights (650 W). Total DNA was extracted from cell suspension in homogenate samples according to bolliture protocol. The Real-time PCR was conducted with species-specific primers for V. parahaemolitycus. The RT-PCR was performed in a final volume of 20 µL, containing 10 µL of SYBR Green Mixture (Applied Biosystems), 2 µL of template DNA, 2 µL of each primer (final concentration 0.6 mM), and H2O 4 µL. The qPCR was carried out on CFX96 TouchTM (Bio-Rad, USA). Results: All samples were negative both to the quantitative and qualitative detection of V. parahaemolyticus by the classical culturing technique. The PMA-qPCR let us individuating VBNC V. parahaemolyticus in the 20,78% of the samples evaluated with a value between the Log 10-1 and Log 10-3 CFU/g. Only clams samples were positive for PMA-qPCR detection. Conclusion: The present research is the first evaluating PMA-qPCR assay for detection of VBNC V. parahaemolyticus in bivalve molluscs samples, and the used method was applicable to the rapid control of marketed bivalve molluscs. We strongly recommend to use of PMA-qPCR in order to identify VBNC forms, undetectable by the classic microbiological methods. A precise knowledge of the V.parahaemolyticus in a VBNC form is fundamental for the correct risk assessment not only in bivalve molluscs but also in other seafood.

Keywords: food safety, frozen bivalve molluscs, PMA dye, Real-time PCR, VBNC state, Vibrio parahaemolyticus

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Authors: Z. Giagkazoglou, D. Loukovitis, C. Gubili, A. Imsiridou

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Along with the increase in human population, demand for seafood has increased. Despite the strict labeling regulations that exist for most marketed species in the European Union, seafood substitution remains a persistent global issue. Food fraud occurs when food products are traded in a false or misleading way. Mislabeling occurs when one species is substituted and traded under the name of another, and it can be intentional or unintentional. Crustaceans are one of the most regularly consumed seafood in Greece. Shrimps, prawns, lobsters, crayfish, and crabs are considered a delicacy and can be encountered in a variety of market presentations (fresh, frozen, pre-cooked, peeled, etc.). With most of the external traits removed, products as such are susceptible to species substitution. DNA barcoding has proven to be the most accurate method for the detection of fraudulent seafood products. To our best knowledge, the DNA barcoding methodology is used for the first time in Greece, in order to investigate the labeling practices for crustacean products available in the market. A total of 100 tissue samples were collected from various retailers and markets across four Greek cities. In an effort to cover the highest range of products possible, different market presentations were targeted (fresh, frozen and cooked). Genomic DNA was extracted using the DNeasy Blood & Tissue Kit, according to the manufacturer's instructions. The mitochondrial gene selected as the target region of the analysis was the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI). PCR products were purified and sequenced using an ABI 3500 Genetic Analyzer. Sequences were manually checked and edited using BioEdit software and compared against the ones available in GenBank and BOLD databases. Statistical analyses were conducted in R and PAST software. For most samples, COI amplification was successful, and species-level identification was possible. The preliminary results estimate moderate mislabeling rates (25%) in the identified samples. Mislabeling was most commonly detected in fresh products, with 50% of the samples in this category labeled incorrectly. Overall, the mislabeling rates detected by our study probably relate to some degree of unintentional misidentification, and lack of knowledge surrounding the legal designations by both retailers and consumers. For some species of crustaceans (i.e. Squila mantis) the mislabeling appears to be also affected by the local labeling practices. Across Greece, S. mantis is sold in the market under two common names, but only one is recognized by the country's legislation, and therefore any mislabeling is probably not profit-motivated. However, the substitution of the speckled shrimp (Metapenaus monoceros) for the distinct, giant river prawn (Macrobranchium rosenbergii), is a clear example of deliberate fraudulent substitution, aiming for profit. To our best knowledge, no scientific study investigating substitution and mislabeling rates in crustaceans has been conducted in Greece. For a better understanding of Greece's seafood market, similar DNA barcoding studies in other regions with increased touristic importance (e.g., the Greek islands) should be conducted. Regardless, the expansion of the list of species-specific designations for crustaceans in the country is advised.

Keywords: COI gene, food fraud, labelling control, molecular identification

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Authors: Bensaid A., Mostephaoui T., Nedjai R.

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Nowadays, wetlands are the subject of contradictory debates opposing scientific, political and administrative meanings. Indeed, given their multiple services (drinking water, irrigation, hydrological regulation, mineral, plant and animal resources...), wetlands concentrate many socio-economic and biodiversity issues. In some regions, they can cover vast areas (>100 thousand ha) of the landscape, such as the Camargue area in the south of France, inside the Rhone delta. The high biological productivity of wetlands, the strong natural selection pressures and the diversity of aquatic environments have produced many species of plants and animals that are found nowhere else. These environments are tremendous carbon sinks and biodiversity reserves depending on their age, composition and surrounding environmental conditions, wetlands play an important role in global climate projections. Covering more than 3% of the earth's surface, wetlands have experienced since the beginning of the 1990s a tremendous revival of interest, which has resulted in the multiplication of inventories, scientific studies and management experiments. The geographical and physical characteristics of the wetlands of the central region conceal a large number of natural habitats that harbour a great biological diversity. These wetlands, one of the natural habitats, are still influenced by human activities, especially agriculture, which affects its layout and functioning. In this perspective, decision-makers need to delimit spatial objects (natural habitats) in a certain way to be able to take action. Thus, wetlands are no exception to this rule even if it seems to be a difficult exercise to delimit a type of environment as whose main characteristic is often to occupy the transition between aquatic and terrestrial environment. However, it is possible to map wetlands with databases, derived from the interpretation of photos and satellite images, such as the European database Corine Land cover, which allows quantifying and characterizing for each place the characteristic wetland types. Scientific studies have shown limitations when using high spatial resolution images (SPOT, Landsat, ASTER) for the identification and characterization of small wetlands (1 hectare). To address this limitation, it is important to note that these wetlands generally represent spatially complex features. Indeed, the use of very high spatial resolution images (>3m) is necessary to map small and large areas. However, with the recent evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning methods for satellite image processing have shown a much better performance compared to traditional processing based only on pixel structures. Our research work is also based on spectral and textural analysis on THR images (Spot and IRC orthoimage) using two object-oriented approaches, the nearest neighbour approach (k-NN) and the Super Vector Machine approach (SVM). The k-NN approach gave good results for the delineation of wetlands (wet marshes and moors, ponds, artificial wetlands water body edges, ponds, mountain wetlands, river edges and brackish marshes) with a kappa index higher than 85%.

Keywords: land development, GIS, sand dunes, segmentation, remote sensing

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Authors: N. Reza Pour, S. Chuah, T. Vo

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Background: Vertebral artery dissection (VAD) is a rare complication of pregnancy. It can occur spontaneously or following a traumatic event. The pathogenesis is unclear. Predisposing factors include chronic hypertension, Marfan’s syndrome, fibromuscular dysplasia, vasculitis and cystic medial necrosis. Physiological changes of pregnancy have also been proposed as potential mechanisms of injury to the vessel wall. The clinical presentation varies and it can present as a headache, neck pain, diplopia, transient ischaemic attack, or an ischemic stroke. Isolated cases of VAD in pregnancy and puerperium have been reported in the literature. One case was found to have posterior circulation stroke as a result of bilateral VAD and labour was induced at 37 weeks gestation for preeclampsia. Another patient at 38 weeks with severe neck pain that persisted after induction for elevated blood pressure and arteriography showed right VAD postpartum. A single case of lethal VAD in pregnancy with subsequent massive subarachnoid haemorrhage has been reported which was confirmed by the autopsy. Case Presentation: We report two cases of vertebral artery dissection in pregnancy. The first patient was a 32-year-old primigravida presented at the 38th week of pregnancy with the onset of early labour and blood pressure (BP) of 130/70 on arrival. After 2 hours, the patient developed a severe headache with blurry vision and BP was 238/120. Despite treatment with an intravenous antihypertensive, she had eclamptic fit. Magnesium solfate was started and Emergency Caesarean Section was performed under the general anaesthesia. On the second day after the operation, she developed left-sided neck pain. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) angiography confirmed a short segment left vertebral artery dissection at the level of C3. The patient was treated with aspirin and remained stable without any neurological deficit. The second patient was a 33-year-old primigavida who was admitted to the hospital at 36 weeks gestation with BP of 155/105, constant headache and visual disturbances. She was medicated with an oral antihypertensive agent. On day 4, she complained of right-sided neck pain. MRI angiogram revealed a short segment dissection of the right vertebral artery at the C2-3 level. Pregnancy was terminated on the same day with emergency Caesarean Section and anticoagulation was started subsequently. Post-operative recovery was complicated by rectus sheath haematoma requiring evacuation. She was discharged home on Aspirin without any neurological sequelae. Conclusion: Because of collateral circulation, unilateral vertebral artery dissections may go unrecognized and may be more common than suspected. The outcome for most patients is benign, reflecting the adequacy of the collateral circulation in young patients. Spontaneous VAD is usually treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelet therapy for a minimum of 3-6 months to prevent future ischaemic events, allowing the dissection to heal on its own. We had two cases of VAD in the context of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy with an acceptable outcome. A high level of vigilance is required particularly with preeclamptic patients presenting with head/neck pain to allow an early diagnosis. This is as we hypothesize, early and aggressive management of vertebral artery dissection may potentially prevent further complications.

Keywords: eclampsia, preeclampsia, pregnancy, Vertebral Artery Dissection

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Authors: Johnas Buhori, Meinrad Haule Lembuka

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Introduction: Social work expands its boundary to accommodate indigenous knowledge and practice for better competence and services. In Tanzania, Mama Mkubwa Mkubwa (MMM) (Mother’s elder sister) is an indigenous practice of alternative child care that represents other traditional practices across African societies known as Ubuntu practice. Ubuntu is African Humanism with values and approaches that are connected to the social work. MMM focuses on using the elder sister of a deceased mother or father, a trusted elder woman from the extended family or indigenous community to provide alternative care to an orphan or vulnerable child. In Ubuntu's perspective, it takes a whole village or community to raise a child, meaning that every person in the community is responsible for child care. Methodology: A desk review method guided by Ubuntu theory was applied to enrich the study. Findings: MMM resembles the Ubuntu ideal of traditional child protection of those in need as part of alternative child care throughout Tanzanian history. Social work practice, along with other formal alternative child care, was introduced in Tanzania during the colonial era in 1940s and socio-economic problems of 1980s affected the country’s formal social welfare system, and suddenly HIV/AIDS pandemic triggered the vulnerability of children and hampered the capacity of the formal sector to provide social welfare services, including alternative child care. For decades, AIDS has contributed to an influx of orphans and vulnerable children that facilitated the re-emerging of traditional alternative child care at the community level, including MMM. MMM strongly practiced in regions where the AIDS pandemic affected the community, like Njombe, Coastal region, Kagera, etc. Despite of existing challenges, MMM remained to be the remarkably alternative child care practiced in both rural and urban communities integrated with social welfare services. Tanzania envisions a traditional mechanism of family or community environment for alternative child care with the notion that sometimes institutionalization care fails to offer children all they need to become productive members of society, and later, it becomes difficult to reconnect in the society. Implications to Social Work: MMM is compatible with social work by using strengths perspectives; MMM reflects Ubuntu's perspective on the ground of humane social work, using humane methods to achieve human goals. MMM further demonstrates the connectedness of those who care and those cared for and the inextricable link between them as Ubuntu-inspired models of social work that view children from family, community, environmental, and spiritual perspectives. Conclusion: Social work and MMM are compatible at the micro and mezzo levels; thus, application of MMM can be applied in social work practice beyond Tanzania when properly designed and integrated into other systems. When MMM is applied in social work, alternative care has the potential to support not only children but also empower families and communities. Since MMM is a community-owned and voluntary base, it can relieve the government, social workers, and other formal sectors from the annual burden of cost in the provision of institutionalized alternative child care.

Keywords: ubuntu, indigenous social work, african social work, ubuntu social work, child protection, child alternative care

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Authors: Alaa Abdellatif, Gabrièle Breda

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Background. Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMPs) are innovative therapies that mainly target orphan diseases and high unmet medical needs. ATMP includes gene therapy medicinal products (GTMP), somatic cell therapy medicinal products (CTMP), and tissue-engineered therapies (TEP). Since legislation opened the way in 2007, 25 ATMPs have been approved in the EU, which is about the same amount as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. However, not all of the ATMPs that have been approved have successfully reached the market and retained their approval. Objectives. We aim to understand all the factors limiting the market access to very promising therapies in a systemic approach, to be able to overcome these problems, in the future, with scientific, regulatory and commercial innovations. Further to recent reviews that focus either on specific countries, products, or dimensions, we will address all the challenges faced by ATMP development today. Methodology. We used mixed methods and a multi-level approach for data collection. First, we performed an updated academic literature review on ATMP development and their scientific and market access challenges (papers published between 2018 and April 2023). Second, we analyzed industry feedback from cell and gene therapy webinars and white papers published by providers and pharmaceutical industries. Finally, we established a comparative analysis of the regulatory guidelines published by EMA and the FDA for ATMP approval. Results: The main challenges in bringing these therapies to market are the high development costs. Developing ATMPs is expensive due to the need for specialized manufacturing processes. Furthermore, the regulatory pathways for ATMPs are often complex and can vary between countries, making it challenging to obtain approval and ensure compliance with different regulations. As a result of the high costs associated with ATMPs, challenges in obtaining reimbursement from healthcare payers lead to limited patient access to these treatments. ATMPs are often developed for orphan diseases, which means that the patient population is limited for clinical trials which can make it challenging to demonstrate their safety and efficacy. In addition, the complex manufacturing processes required for ATMPs can make it challenging to scale up production to meet demand, which can limit their availability and increase costs. Finally, ATMPs face safety and efficacy challenges: dangerous adverse events of these therapies like toxicity related to the use of viral vectors or cell therapy, starting material and donor-related aspects. Conclusion. As a result of our mixed method analysis, we found that ATMPs face a number of challenges in their development, regulatory approval, and commercialization and that addressing these challenges requires collaboration between industry, regulators, healthcare providers, and patient groups. This first analysis will help us to address, for each challenge, proper and innovative solution(s) in order to increase the number of ATMPs approved and reach the patients

Keywords: advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMPs), product development, market access, innovation

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Authors: Islam Sherif, Ahmed Ashour, Ahmed Hassan, Hatem Osman

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Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries are common among athletes and individuals participating in sports with sudden stops, pivots, and changes in direction. Arthroscopic surgery is the gold standard for ACL reconstruction, aiming to restore knee stability and function. Recent years have witnessed significant advancements in arthroscopic surgery techniques, graft materials, and technological innovations, revolutionizing the field of ACL reconstruction. This presentation delves into the latest advancements in arthroscopic surgery techniques for ACL reconstruction and their potential impact on patient outcomes. Traditionally, autografts from the patellar tendon, hamstring tendon, or quadriceps tendon have been commonly used for ACL reconstruction. However, recent studies have explored the use of allografts, synthetic scaffolds, and tissue-engineered grafts as viable alternatives. This abstract evaluates the benefits and potential drawbacks of each graft type, considering factors such as graft incorporation, strength, and risk of graft failure. Moreover, the application of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies in surgical planning and intraoperative navigation has gained traction. AR and VR platforms provide surgeons with detailed 3D anatomical reconstructions of the knee joint, enhancing preoperative visualization and aiding in graft tunnel placement during surgery. We discuss the integration of AR and VR in arthroscopic ACL reconstruction procedures, evaluating their accuracy, cost-effectiveness, and overall impact on surgical outcomes. Beyond graft selection and surgical navigation, patient-specific planning has gained attention in recent research. Advanced imaging techniques, such as MRI-based personalized planning, enable surgeons to tailor ACL reconstruction procedures to each patient's unique anatomy. By accounting for individual variations in the femoral and tibial insertion sites, this personalized approach aims to optimize graft placement and potentially improve postoperative knee kinematics and stability. Furthermore, rehabilitation and postoperative care play a crucial role in the success of ACL reconstruction. This abstract explores novel rehabilitation protocols, emphasizing early mobilization, neuromuscular training, and accelerated recovery strategies. Integrating technology, such as wearable sensors and mobile applications, into postoperative care can facilitate remote monitoring and timely intervention, contributing to enhanced rehabilitation outcomes. In conclusion, this presentation provides an overview of the cutting-edge advancements in arthroscopic surgery techniques for ACL reconstruction. By embracing innovative graft materials, augmented reality, patient-specific planning, and technology-driven rehabilitation, orthopedic surgeons and sports medicine specialists can achieve superior outcomes in ACL injury management. These developments hold great promise for improving the functional outcomes and long-term success rates of ACL reconstruction, benefitting athletes and patients alike.

Keywords: arthroscopic surgery, ACL, autograft, allograft, graft materials, ACL reconstruction, synthetic scaffolds, tissue-engineered graft, virtual reality, augmented reality, surgical planning, intra-operative navigation

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Authors: Valentina Dolmova

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What consumers choose to buy and who voters select on election days are two questions that have captivated the interest of both academics and practitioners for many decades. The importance of understanding what influences the behavior of those groups and whether or not we can predict or control it fuels a steady stream of research in a range of fields. By looking only at the past 40 years, more than 70 thousand scientific papers have been published in each field – consumer behavior and political psychology, respectively. From marketing, economics, and the science of persuasion to political and cognitive psychology - we have all remained heavily engaged. The ever-evolving technology, inevitable socio-cultural shifts, global economic conditions, and much more play an important role in choice-equations regardless of context. On one hand, this makes the research efforts always relevant and needed. On the other, the relatively low number of cross-field collaborations, which seem to be picking up only in more in recent years, makes the existing findings isolated into framed bubbles. By performing systematic research across both areas of psychology and building a parallel between theories and factors of influence, however, we find that there is not only a definitive common ground between the behaviors of consumers and voters but that we are moving towards a global model of choice. This means that the lines between contexts are fading which has a direct implication on what we should focus on when predicting or navigating buyers and voters’ behavior. Internal and external factors in four main categories determine the choices we make as consumers and as voters. Together, personal, psychological, social, and cultural create a holistic framework through which all stimuli in relation to a particular product or a political party get filtered. The analogy “consumer-voter” solidifies further. Leading academics suggest that this fundamental parallel is the key to managing successfully political and consumer brands alike. However, we distinguish additional four key stimuli that relate to those factor categories (1/ opportunity costs; 2/the memory of the past; 3/recognisable figures/faces and 4/conflict) arguing that the level of expertise a person has determines the prevalence of factors or specific stimuli. Our efforts take into account global trends such as the establishment of “celebrity politics” and the image of “ethically concerned consumer brands” which bridge the gap between contexts to an even greater extent. Scientists and practitioners are pushed to accept the transformative nature of both fields in social psychology. Existing blind spots as well as the limited number of research conducted outside the American and European societies open up space for more collaborative efforts in this highly demanding and lucrative field. A mixed method of research tests three main hypotheses, the first two of which are focused on the level of irrelevance of context when comparing voting or consumer behavior – both from the factors and stimuli lenses, the third on determining whether or not the level of expertise in any field skews the weight of what prism we are more likely to choose when evaluating options.

Keywords: buyers’ behaviour, decision-making, voters’ behaviour, social psychology

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Authors: Eiji Nakamachi, Tsuyoshi Eguchi, Sayo Yamamoto, Yusuke Morita, H. Sakamoto

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In this study, we aim to reveal the relationship between the meniscal tearing and the articular cartilage injury of knee joint by using the dynamic explicit finite element (FE) method. Meniscal injuries reduce its functional ability and consequently increase the load on the articular cartilage of knee joint. In order to prevent the induction of osteoarthritis (OA) caused by meniscal injuries, many medical treatment techniques, such as artificial meniscus replacement and meniscal regeneration, have been developed. However, it is reported that these treatments are not the comprehensive methods. In order to reveal the fundamental mechanism of OA induction, the mechanical characterization of meniscus under the condition of normal and injured states is carried out by using FE analyses. At first, a FE model of the human knee joint in the case of normal state – ‘intact’ - was constructed by using the magnetron resonance (MR) tomography images and the image construction code, Materialize Mimics. Next, two types of meniscal injury models with the radial tears of medial and lateral menisci were constructed. In FE analyses, the linear elastic constitutive law was adopted for the femur and tibia bones, the visco-hyperelastic constitutive law for the articular cartilage, and the visco-anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive law for the meniscus, respectively. Material properties of articular cartilage and meniscus were identified using the stress-strain curves obtained by our compressive and the tensile tests. The numerical results under the normal walking condition revealed how and where the maximum compressive stress occurred on the articular cartilage. The maximum compressive stress and its occurrence point were varied in the intact and two meniscal tear models. These compressive stress values can be used to establish the threshold value to cause the pathological change for the diagnosis. In this study, FE analyses of knee joint were carried out to reveal the influence of meniscal injuries on the cartilage injury. The following conclusions are obtained. 1. 3D FE model, which consists femur, tibia, articular cartilage and meniscus was constructed based on MR images of human knee joint. The image processing code, Materialize Mimics was used by using the tetrahedral FE elements. 2. Visco-anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive equation was formulated by adopting the generalized Kelvin model. The material properties of meniscus and articular cartilage were determined by curve fitting with experimental results. 3. Stresses on the articular cartilage and menisci were obtained in cases of the intact and two radial tears of medial and lateral menisci. Through comparison with the case of intact knee joint, two tear models show almost same stress value and higher value than the intact one. It was shown that both meniscal tears induce the stress localization in both medial and lateral regions. It is confirmed that our newly developed FE analysis code has a potential to be a new diagnostic system to evaluate the meniscal damage on the articular cartilage through the mechanical functional assessment.

Keywords: finite element analysis, hyperelastic constitutive law, knee joint injury, meniscal tear, stress concentration

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Authors: Zhao Gao, Eran Edirisinghe

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The production of an accurate sketch of a suspect based on a verbal description obtained from a witness is an essential task for most criminal investigations. The criminal investigation system employs specifically trained professional artists to manually draw a facial image of the suspect according to the descriptions of an eyewitness for subsequent identification. Within the advancement of Deep Learning, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have shown great promise in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Additionally, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have also proven to be very effective in image generation. In this study, a trained GAN conditioned on textual features such as keywords automatically encoded from a verbal description of a human face using an RNN is used to generate photo-realistic facial images for criminal investigations. The intention of the proposed system is to map corresponding features into text generated from verbal descriptions. With this, it becomes possible to generate many reasonably accurate alternatives to which the witness can use to hopefully identify a suspect from. This reduces subjectivity in decision making both by the eyewitness and the artist while giving an opportunity for the witness to evaluate and reconsider decisions. Furthermore, the proposed approach benefits law enforcement agencies by reducing the time taken to physically draw each potential sketch, thus increasing response times and mitigating potentially malicious human intervention. With publically available 'CelebFaces Attributes Dataset' (CelebA) and additionally providing verbal description as training data, the proposed architecture is able to effectively produce facial structures from given text. Word Embeddings are learnt by applying the RNN architecture in order to perform semantic parsing, the output of which is fed into the GAN for synthesizing photo-realistic images. Rather than the grid search method, a metaheuristic search based on genetic algorithms is applied to evolve the network with the intent of achieving optimal hyperparameters in a fraction the time of a typical brute force approach. With the exception of the ‘CelebA’ training database, further novel test cases are supplied to the network for evaluation. Witness reports detailing criminals from Interpol or other law enforcement agencies are sampled on the network. Using the descriptions provided, samples are generated and compared with the ground truth images of a criminal in order to calculate the similarities. Two factors are used for performance evaluation: The Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) and the Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR). A high percentile output from this performance matrix should attribute to demonstrating the accuracy, in hope of proving that the proposed approach can be an effective tool for law enforcement agencies. The proposed approach to criminal facial image generation has potential to increase the ratio of criminal cases that can be ultimately resolved using eyewitness information gathering.

Keywords: RNN, GAN, NLP, facial composition, criminal investigation

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Authors: Eda Ozkara San

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Nurse educators have been charged by several nursing organizations and accrediting bodies to provide innovative and evidence-based educational experiences, both didactic and clinical, to help students to develop the knowledge, skills, and attitudes needed to provide culturally competent nursing care to patients. Clinical simulation, which offers the opportunity for students to practice nursing skills in a risk-free, controlled environment and helps develop self-efficacy (confidence) within the nursing role. As one simulation method, the standardized patients (SPs) simulation helps educators to teach nursing students variety of skills in nursing, medicine, and other health professions. It can be a helpful tool for nurse educators to enhance cultural competence of nursing students. An alarming gap exists within the literature concerning the effectiveness of SP strategy to enhance cultural competence development of diverse student groups, who must work with patients from various backgrounds. This grant-supported, longitudinal, one-group, pretest and post-test educational intervention study aimed to examine the effect of the Diverse Standardized Patient Simulation (DSPS) cultural competence education strategy on students’ (n = 53) transcultural self-efficacy (TSE). The researcher-developed multidimensional DSPS strategy involved careful integration of transcultural nursing skills guided by the Cultural Competence and Confidence (CCC) model. As a carefully orchestrated teaching and learning strategy by specifically utilizing the SP pedagogy, the DSPS also followed international guidelines and standards for the design, implementation, evaluation, and SP training; and had content validity review. The DSPS strategy involved two simulation scenarios targeting underrepresented patient populations (Muslim immigrant woman with limited English proficiency and Irish-Italian American gay man with his partner (Puerto Rican) to be utilized in a second-semester, nine-credit, 15-week medical-surgical nursing course at an urban public US university. Five doctorally prepared content experts reviewed the DSPS strategy for content validity. The item-level content validity index (I-CVI) score was calculated between .80-1.0 on the evaluation forms. Jeffreys’ Transcultural Self-Efficacy Tool (TSET) was administered as a pretest and post-test to assess students’ changes in cognitive, practical, and affective dimensions of TSE. Results gained from this study support that the DSPS cultural competence education strategy assisted students to develop cultural competence and caused statistically significant changes (increase) in students’ TSE perceptions. Results also supported that all students, regardless of their background, benefit (and require) well designed cultural competence education strategies. The multidimensional DSPS strategy is found to be an effective way to foster nursing students’ cultural competence development. Step-by-step description of the DSPS provides an easy adaptation of this strategy with different student populations and settings.

Keywords: cultural competence development, the cultural competence and confidence model, CCC model, educational intervention, transcultural self-efficacy, TSE, transcultural self-efficacy tool, TSET

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Authors: Xiaoqing Peng, Aijing Luo, Yang Chen

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Background: Cyberchondria, as an "emerging risk" accompanied by the information era, is a new abnormal pattern characterized by excessive or repeated online searches for health-related information and escalating health anxiety, which endangers people's physical and mental health and poses a huge threat to public health. Objective: To explore and discuss the research status, hotspots and trends of Cyberchondria. Methods: Based on a total of 77 articles regarding "Cyberchondria" extracted from Web of Science from the beginning till October 2019, the literature trends, countries, institutions, hotspots are analyzed by bibliometric analysis, the concept definition of Cyberchondria, instruments, relevant factors, treatment and intervention are discussed as well. Results: Since "Cyberchondria" was put forward for the first time in 2001, the last two decades witnessed a noticeable increase in the amount of literature, especially during 2014-2019, it quadrupled dramatically at 62 compared with that before 2014 only at 15, which shows that Cyberchondria has become a new theme and hot topic in recent years. The United States was the most active contributor with the largest publication (23), followed by England (11) and Australia (11), while the leading institutions were Baylor University(7) and University of Sydney(7), followed by Florida State University(4) and University of Manchester(4). The WoS categories "Psychiatry/Psychology " and "Computer/ Information Science "were the areas of greatest influence. The concept definition of Cyberchondria is not completely unified in the world, but it is generally considered as an abnormal behavioral pattern and emotional state and has been invoked to refer to the anxiety-amplifying effects of online health-related searches. The first and the most frequently cited scale for measuring the severity of Cyberchondria called “The Cyberchondria Severity Scale (CSS) ”was developed in 2014, which conceptualized Cyberchondria as a multidimensional construct consisting of compulsion, distress, excessiveness, reassurance, and mistrust of medical professionals which was proved to be not necessary for this construct later. Since then, the Brazilian, German, Turkish, Polish and Chinese versions were subsequently developed, improved and culturally adjusted, while CSS was optimized to a simplified version (CSS-12) in 2019, all of which should be worthy of further verification. The hotspots of Cyberchondria mainly focuses on relevant factors as follows: intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety sensitivity, obsessive-compulsive disorder, internet addition, abnormal illness behavior, Whiteley index, problematic internet use, trying to make clear the role played by “associated factors” and “anxiety-amplifying factors” in the development of Cyberchondria, to better understand the aetiological links and pathways in the relationships between hypochondriasis, health anxiety and online health-related searches. Although the treatment and intervention of Cyberchondria are still in the initial stage of exploration, there are kinds of meaningful attempts to seek effective strategies from different aspects such as online psychological treatment, network technology management, health information literacy improvement and public health service. Conclusion: Research on Cyberchondria is in its infancy but should be deserved more attention. A conceptual consensus on Cyberchondria, a refined assessment tool, prospective studies conducted in various populations, targeted treatments for it would be the main research direction in the near future.

Keywords: cyberchondria, hypochondriasis, health anxiety, online health-related searches

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Authors: Kusno Kamil, Andi Asni, Sungkono

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According to a report of the World Food and Agriculture Agency (FAO): the post-harvest fish losses in Indonesia reaches 30 percent from 170 trillion rupiahs of marine fisheries reserves, then the potential loss reaches 51 trillion rupiahs (end of 2016 data). This condition is caused by traditionally vulnerable fish catches damaged due to disruption of the cold chain of preservation. The physical and chemical changes in fish flesh increase rapidly, especially if exposed to the scorching heat in the middle of the sea, exacerbated by the low awareness of catch hygiene; many unclean catches which contain blood are often treated without special attention and mixed with freshly caught fish, thereby increasing the potential for faster fish spoilage. This background encourages research on traditional fisherman catch preservation methods that aim to find the best and most affordable methods and/or combinations of fish preservation methods so that they can help fishermen increase their fishing duration without worrying that their catch will be damaged, thereby reducing their economic value when returning to the beach to sell their catches. This goal is expected to be achieved through experimental methods of treatment of fresh fish catches in containers with the addition of anti-bacterial copper, liquid smoke solution, and the use of vacuum containers. The other three treatments combined the three previous treatment variables with an electrically powered cooler (temperature 0~4 ᵒC). As a control specimen, the untreated fresh fish (placed in the open air and in the refrigerator) were also prepared for comparison for 1, 3, and 6 days. To test the level of freshness of fish for each treatment, physical observations were used, which were complemented by tests for bacterial content in a trusted laboratory. The content of copper (Cu) in fish meat (which is suspected of having a negative impact on consumers) was also part of the examination on the 6th day of experimentation. The results of physical observations on the test specimens (organoleptic method) showed that preservation assisted by the use of coolers was still better for all treatment variables. The specimens, without cooling, sequentially showed that the best preservation effectiveness was the addition of copper plates, the use of vacuum containers, and then liquid smoke immersion. Especially for liquid smoke, soaking for 6 days of preservation makes the fish meat soft and easy to crumble, even though it doesn't have a bad odor. The visual observation was then complemented by the results of testing the amount of growth (or retardation) of putrefactive bacteria in each treatment of test specimens within similar observation periods. Laboratory measurements report that the minimum amount of putrefactive bacteria achieved by preservation treatment combining cooler with liquid smoke (sample A+), then cooler only (D+), copper layer inside cooler (B+), vacuum container inside cooler (C+), respectively. Other treatments in open air produced a hundred times more putrefactive bacteria. In addition, treatment of the copper layer contaminated the preserved fresh fish more than a thousand times bigger compared to the initial amount, from 0.69 to 1241.68 µg/g.

Keywords: fish, preservation, traditional, fishermen, boat

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Duncan Wallace, M-Tahar Kechadi

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In recent years, Machine Learning (ML) approaches have been successfully applied to an analysis of patient symptom data in the context of disease diagnosis, at least where such data is well codified. However, much of the data present in Electronic Health Records (EHR) are unlikely to prove suitable for classic ML approaches. Furthermore, as scores of data are widely spread across both hospitals and individuals, a decentralized, computationally scalable methodology is a priority. The focus of this paper is to develop a method to predict outliers in an out-of-hours healthcare provision center (OOHC). In particular, our research is based upon the early identification of patients who have underlying conditions which will cause them to repeatedly require medical attention. OOHC act as an ad-hoc delivery of triage and treatment, where interactions occur without recourse to a full medical history of the patient in question. Medical histories, relating to patients contacting an OOHC, may reside in several distinct EHR systems in multiple hospitals or surgeries, which are unavailable to the OOHC in question. As such, although a local solution is optimal for this problem, it follows that the data under investigation is incomplete, heterogeneous, and comprised mostly of noisy textual notes compiled during routine OOHC activities. Through the use of Deep Learning methodologies, the aim of this paper is to provide the means to identify patient cases, upon initial contact, which are likely to relate to such outliers. To this end, we compare the performance of Long Short-Term Memory, Gated Recurrent Units, and combinations of both with Convolutional Neural Networks. A further aim of this paper is to elucidate the discovery of such outliers by examining the exact terms which provide a strong indication of positive and negative case entries. While free-text is the principal data extracted from EHRs for classification, EHRs also contain normalized features. Although the specific demographical features treated within our corpus are relatively limited in scope, we examine whether it is beneficial to include such features among the inputs to our neural network, or whether these features are more successfully exploited in conjunction with a different form of a classifier. In this section, we compare the performance of randomly generated regression trees and support vector machines and determine the extent to which our classification program can be improved upon by using either of these machine learning approaches in conjunction with the output of our Recurrent Neural Network application. The output of our neural network is also used to help determine the most significant lexemes present within the corpus for determining high-risk patients. By combining the confidence of our classification program in relation to lexemes within true positive and true negative cases, with an inverse document frequency of the lexemes related to these cases, we can determine what features act as the primary indicators of frequent-attender and non-frequent-attender cases, providing a human interpretable appreciation of how our program classifies cases.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, data-mining, machine learning, medical informatics

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Seyed Hossein Hosseini, Seyed Majid Hashemzadeh

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Solar energy is one of the remarkable renewable energy sources that have particular characteristics such as unlimited, no environmental pollution, and free access. Generally, solar energy can be used in thermal and photovoltaic (PV) types. The cost of installation of the PV system is very high. Additionally, due to dependence on environmental situations such as solar radiation and ambient temperature, electrical power generation of this system is unpredictable and without power electronics devices, there is no guarantee to maximum power delivery at the output of this system. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) should be used to achieve the maximum power of a PV string. MPPT is one of the essential parts of the PV system which without this section, it would be impossible to reach the maximum amount of the PV string power and high losses are caused in the PV system. One of the noticeable challenges in the problem of MPPT is the partial shading conditions (PSC). In PSC, the output photocurrent of the PV module under the shadow is less than the PV string current. The difference between the mentioned currents passes from the module's internal parallel resistance and creates a large negative voltage across shaded modules. This significant negative voltage damages the PV module under the shadow. This condition is called hot-spot phenomenon. An anti-paralleled diode is inserted across the PV module to prevent the happening of this phenomenon. This diode is known as the bypass diode. Due to the performance of the bypass diode under PSC, the P-V curve of the PV string has several peaks. One of the P-V curve peaks that makes the maximum available power is the global peak. Model-based Global MPPT (GMPPT) methods can estimate the optimal point with higher speed than other GMPPT approaches. Centralized, modular, and interleaved DC-DC converter topologies are the significant structures that can be used for GMPPT at a PV string. there are some problems in the centralized structure such as current mismatch losses at PV sting, loss of power of the shaded modules because of bypassing by bypass diodes under PSC, needing to series connection of many PV modules to reach the desired voltage level. In the modular structure, each PV module is connected to a DC-DC converter. In this structure, by increasing the amount of demanded power from the PV string, the number of DC-DC converters that are used at the PV system will increase. As a result, the cost of the modular structure is very high. We can implement the model-based GMPPT through the multi-input interleaved boost DC-DC converter to increase the power extraction from the PV string and reduce hot-spot and current mismatch error in a PV string under different environmental condition and variable load circumstances. The interleaved boost DC-DC converter has many privileges than other mentioned structures, such as high reliability and efficiency, better regulation of DC voltage at DC link, overcome the notable errors such as module's current mismatch and hot spot phenomenon, and power switches voltage stress reduction.

Keywords: solar energy, photovoltaic systems, interleaved boost converter, maximum power point tracking, model-based method, partial shading conditions

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: D. Ficai, A. Ficai, D. Gudovan, I. A. Gudovan, I. Ardelean, R. Trusca, E. Andronescu, V. Mitran, A. Cimpean

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In the last years, scientists struggled hardly to mimic bone structures to develop implants and biostructures which present higher biocompatibility and reduced rejection rate. One way to obtain this goal is to use similar materials as that of bone, namely collagen/hydroxyapatite composite materials. However, it is very important to tailor both compositions but also the microstructure of the bone that would ensure both the optimal osteointegartion and the mechanical properties required by the application. In this study, new collagen/hydroxyapatites composite materials doped with Cu, Li, Mn, Zn were successfully prepared. The synthesis method is described below: weight the Ca(OH)₂ mass, i.e., 7,3067g, and ZnCl₂ (0.134g), CuSO₄ (0.159g), LiCO₃ (0.133g), MnCl₂.4H₂O (0.1971g), and suspend in 100ml distilled water under magnetic stirring. The solution thus obtained is added a solution of NaH₂PO₄*H2O (8.247g dissolved in 50ml distilled water) under slow dropping of 1 ml/min followed by adjusting the pH to 9.5 with HCl and finally filter and wash until neutral pH. The as-obtained slurry was dried in the oven at 80°C and then calcined at 600°C in order to ensure a proper purification of the final product of organic phases, also inducing a proper sterilization of the mixture before insertion into the collagen matrix. The collagen/hydroxyapatite composite materials are tailored from morphological point of view to optimize their biocompatibility and bio-integration against mechanical properties whereas the addition of the dopants is aimed to improve the biological activity of the samples. The addition of transitional metals can improve the biocompatibility and especially the osteoblasts adhesion (Mn²⁺) or to induce slightly better osteoblast differentiation of the osteoblast, Zn²⁺ being a cofactor for many enzymes including those responsible for cell differentiation. If the amount is too high, the final material can become toxic and lose all of its biocompatibility. In order to achieve a good biocompatibility and not reach the cytotoxic effect, the amount of transitional metals added has to be maintained at low levels (0.5% molar). The amount of transitional metals entering into the elemental cell of HA will be verified using inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometric system. This highly sensitive technique is necessary, because, at such low levels of transitional metals, the difference between biocompatible and cytotoxic is a very thin line, thus requiring proper and thorough investigation using a precise technique. In order to determine the structure and morphology of the obtained composite materials, IR spectroscopy, X-Ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectrometry (EDS) were used. Acknowledgment: The present work was possible due to the EU-funding grant POSCCE-A2O2.2.1-2013-1, Project No. 638/12.03.2014, code SMIS-CSNR 48652. The financial contribution received from the national project “Biomimetic porous structures obtained by 3D printing developed for bone tissue engineering (BIOGRAFTPRINT), No. 127PED/2017 is also highly acknowledged.

Keywords: collagen, composite materials, hydroxyapatite, bone tissue engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Yobo Opare-Addo

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Ghana came under a military and democratic rule of the same leadership from 1981-2000. These were the Provisional National Defense Council (PNDC), a military government and a democratic government, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) both under the leadership of Flt. Lt. J.J. Rawlings. Meanwhile the year 1985 marked a turning point in the development of the tourism industry in Ghana. Interest in tourism among African governments and for that matter the ‘PNDC cum NDC Government’ (PNDC/NDC) arose because of adverse developments in intangible exports and a corresponding decline in commodity export earnings. The ‘PNDC/NDC Government’ undertook measures and policies to improve the tourism industry and at the same time embarked on export diversification to reap the foreign exchange that the industry could generate in Ghana. The objective of this paper is to examine the measures and policies of the PNDC/NDC to improve the tourism industry in order to reap the foreign exchange. It specifically interrogates the role of the government as an agent of tourism development, through its deliberate creation of a conducive environment for tourism to flourish, the involvement of the private sector both foreign and local and the provision of tourism facilities and infrastructure and how these factors impacted on the tourism industry in Ghana. In the final analysis it evaluates the degree of success of the PNDC/NDC Government in this arena of Ghana’s socio-cultural and economic development. Introduction The Provisional National Defense Council (PNDC), a military government under the leadership of Flt. Lt J.J. Rawlings overthrew a constitutionally elected government of People’s National Party in 1981. In 1992, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) won the general election conducted in December. Flt. Lt. J.J. Rawlings, the party’s leader became the President of the Fourth Republic from January 1993 to December 2000. It was refreshing to see Ghanaians embrace democracy with renewed energy, zeal, and enthusiasm. This paper takes a critical look at the efforts of the PNDC cum NDC Government (PNDC/NDC) to develop tourism in Ghana during the period from 1981-2000 Methodology: Qualitative method of research was adopted for the study. Data was collected from both primary and secondary sources, and analysis was done using descriptive analysis because descriptive analysis made it possible to describe or summarize the statistical data in the research. To gather data from primary sources, questionnaires, oral interviews, and semi-structured discussions were conducted. Respondents included public officials from Ghana Tourist Board, Ministry of Tourism, Hoteliers, restaurant operators and travel and tour operators in Accra. Secondary data sources included articles in journals, reports, magazines, bulletins, and books. The major findings included statistical data for tourism arrivals and receipts during the period and the status of the industry by the year 2000. Conclusion: The paper contributes to knowledge on political and historical aspects of tourism development in Ghana, which is almost non-existent, attitudes of the PNDC cum NDC government towards tourism development and the debates on the generation of foreign exchange to Ghana and third world countries.

Keywords: ghana, infrastructure, policies, privatization, tourism facilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Hongmei Wang, Ziyun Xiang, Ying liu, Li Yu, Dongsheng Yue

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Intro: The COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) has greatly changed the global economic, political and financial ecology. The mutation of the coronavirus in the UK in December 2020 has brought new panic to the world. Deep learning was performed on Chest Computed tomography (CT) of COVID-19 and Influenza and describes their characteristics. The predominant features of COVID-19 pneumonia was ground-glass opacification, followed by consolidation. Lesion density: most lesions appear as ground-glass shadows, and some lesions coexist with solid lesions. Lesion distribution: the focus is mainly on the dorsal side of the periphery of the lung, with the lower lobe of the lungs as the focus, and it is often close to the pleura. Other features it has are grid-like shadows in ground glass lesions, thickening signs of diseased vessels, air bronchi signs and halo signs. The severe disease involves whole bilateral lungs, showing white lung signs, air bronchograms can be seen, and there can be a small amount of pleural effusion in the bilateral chest cavity. At the same time, this year's flu season could be near its peak after surging throughout the United States for months. Chest CT for Influenza infection is characterized by focal ground glass shadows in the lungs, with or without patchy consolidation, and bronchiole air bronchograms are visible in the concentration. There are patchy ground-glass shadows, consolidation, air bronchus signs, mosaic lung perfusion, etc. The lesions are mostly fused, which is prominent near the hilar and two lungs. Grid-like shadows and small patchy ground-glass shadows are visible. Deep neural networks have great potential in image analysis and diagnosis that traditional machine learning algorithms do not. Method: Aiming at the two major infectious diseases COVID-19 and influenza, which are currently circulating in the world, the chest CT of patients with two infectious diseases is classified and diagnosed using deep learning algorithms. The residual network is proposed to solve the problem of network degradation when there are too many hidden layers in a deep neural network (DNN). The proposed deep residual system (ResNet) is a milestone in the history of the Convolutional neural network (CNN) images, which solves the problem of difficult training of deep CNN models. Many visual tasks can get excellent results through fine-tuning ResNet. The pre-trained convolutional neural network ResNet is introduced as a feature extractor, eliminating the need to design complex models and time-consuming training. Fastai is based on Pytorch, packaging best practices for in-depth learning strategies, and finding the best way to handle diagnoses issues. Based on the one-cycle approach of the Fastai algorithm, the classification diagnosis of lung CT for two infectious diseases is realized, and a higher recognition rate is obtained. Results: A deep learning model was developed to efficiently identify the differences between COVID-19 and influenza using chest CT.

Keywords: COVID-19, Fastai, influenza, transfer network

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: A. F. C. Nassar, D. K. Tessler, L. Okuda, C. Del Fava, D. P. Chiebao, A. H. C. N. Romaldini, A. P. Alvim, M. J. Sanchez-Vazquez, M. S. Rosa, J. C. Pompei, R. Harakava, M. C. S. Araujo, G. H. F. Marques, E. M. Pituco

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Glanders is a zoonotic disease of Equidae caused by the bacterium Burkholderia mallei presented in acute or chronic clinical forms with inflammatory nodules in the respiratory tract, lymphangitis and caseous lymph nodes. There is not a treatment with veterinary drugs to this life-threatening disease; thus, its occurrence must be notified to official animal health services and any infected animal must be eliminated. This study aims to detect B. mallei from horses euthanized in outbreaks of glanders in Brazil, providing a better understanding of the bacterial characteristics and determine a proper protocol for isolation. The work was carried out with the collaboration of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Sao Paulo State Animal Health Department, while its procedures were approved by the Committee of Ethics in Animal Experimentation from the Instituto Biologico (CETEA n°156/2017). To the present time, 16 horses from farms with outbreaks of glanders detected by complement fixation test (CFT) serology method were analyzed. During the necropsy, samples of possibly affected organs (lymph nodes, lungs, heart, liver, spleen, kidneys and trachea) were collected for bacterial isolation, molecular tests and pathology. Isolation was performed using two enriched mediums, a potato infusion agar with 5% sheep blood, 4% glycerol and antibiotics (penicilin100U/ mL), and another with the same ingredients except the antibiotic. A PCR protocol was modified for this study using primers design to identify a region of the Flip gen of B. mallei. Thru isolation, 12.5% (2/16) animals were confirmed positive using only the enriched medium with antibiotic and confirmed by PCR: from mediastinal and submandibular lymph nodes and lungs in one animal and from mediastinal lymph node in the other. The detection of the bacterium using PCR showed positivity of 100% (16/16) horses from 144 samples of organs. Pathology macroscopic lesions observed were catarrhal nasal discharge, fetlock ulcers, emaciation, lymphangitis in limbs, suppurative lymphangitis, lymph node enlargement, star shaped liver, and spleen scars, adherence of the renal capsule, pulmonary hemorrhage, and miliary nodules. Microscopic lesions were suppurative bronchopneumonia with microabscesses and Langhans giant cells in lungs; lymph nodes with abscesses and intense lymphoid reaction; hemosiderosis and abscesses in spleen. Positive samples on PCR will be sequenced later and analyzed comparing with previous records in the literature. A throughout description of the recent acute cases of glanders occurring in Brazil and characterization of the bacterium related will contribute to advances in the knowledge of the pathogenicity, clinical symptoms, and epidemiology of this zoonotic disease. Acknowledgment: This project is sponsored by FAPESP.

Keywords: equines, bacterial isolation, zoonosis, PCR, pathology

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Magdalena Chrabąszcz, Teresa Wolniewicz, Cezary Maciejewski, Joanna Czuwara

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BACKGROUND: Dermoscopy is a clinical tool known to improve the early detection of melanoma and other malignancies of the skin. Over the past few years melanoma has grown into a disease of socio-economic importance due to the increasing incidence and persistently high mortality rates. Early diagnosis remains the best method to reduce melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer– related mortality and morbidity. Dermoscopy is a noninvasive technique that consists of viewing pigmented skin lesions through a hand-held lens. This simple procedure increases melanoma diagnostic accuracy by up to 35%. Dermoscopy is currently the standard for clinical differential diagnosis of cutaneous melanoma and for qualifying lesion for the excision biopsy. Like any clinical tool, training is required for effective use. The introduction of small and handy dermoscopes contributed significantly to the switch of dermatoscopy toward a first-level useful tool. Non-dermatologist physicians are well positioned for opportunistic melanoma detection; however, education in the skin cancer examination is limited during medical school and traditionally lecture-based. AIM: The aim of this randomized study was to determine whether the adjunct of dermoscopy to the standard fourth year medical curriculum improves the ability of medical students to distinguish between benign and malignant lesions and assess acceptability and satisfaction with the intervention. METHODS: We performed a prospective study in 2 cohorts of fourth-year medical students at Medical University of Warsaw. Groups having dermatology course, were randomly assigned to:  cohort A: with limited access to dermatoscopy from their teacher only – 1 dermatoscope for 15 people  Cohort B: with a full access to use dermatoscopy during their clinical classes:1 dermatoscope for 4 people available constantly plus 15-minute dermoscopy tutorial. Students in both study arms got an image-based test of 10 lesions to assess ability to differentiate benign from malignant lesions and postintervention survey collecting minimal background information, attitudes about the skin cancer examination and course satisfaction. RESULTS: The cohort B had higher scores than the cohort A in recognition of nonmelanocytic (P < 0.05) and melanocytic (P <0.05) lesions. Medical students who have a possibility to use dermatoscope by themselves have also a higher satisfaction rates after the dermatology course than the group with limited access to this diagnostic tool. Moreover according to our results they were more motivated to learn dermatoscopy and use it in their future everyday clinical practice. LIMITATIONS: There were limited participants. Further study of the application on clinical practice is still needed. CONCLUSION: Although the use of dermatoscope in dermatology as a specialty is widely accepted, sufficiently validated clinical tools for the examination of potentially malignant skin lesions are lacking in general practice. Introducing medical students to dermoscopy in their fourth year curricula of medical school may improve their ability to differentiate benign from malignant lesions. It can can also encourage students to use dermatoscopy in their future practice which can significantly improve early recognition of malignant lesions and thus decrease melanoma mortality.

Keywords: dermatoscopy, early detection of melanoma, medical education, skin cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Begona del Pino, Beatriz Prieto, Alberto Prieto

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Two opposite approaches to teaching can be considered: in-class learning (teacher-oriented) versus virtual learning (student-oriented). The most known example of the latter is Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs). Both methodologies have pros and cons. Nowadays there is an increasing trend towards combining both of them. Blending learning is considered a valuable tool for improving learning since it combines student-centred interactive e-learning and face to face instruction. The aim of this contribution is to exchange and share the experience and research results of a blended-learning project that took place in the University of Granada (Spain). The research objective was to prove how combining didactic resources of a MOOC with in-class teaching, interacting directly with students, can substantially improve academic results, as well as student acceptance. The proposed methodology is based on the use of flipped learning technics applied to the subject ‘Fundamentals of Computer Science’ of the first course of two degrees: Telecommunications Engineering, and Industrial Electronics. In this proposal, students acquire the theoretical knowledges at home through a MOOC platform, where they watch video-lectures, do self-evaluation tests, and use other academic multimedia online resources. Afterwards, they have to attend to in-class teaching where they do other activities in order to interact with teachers and the rest of students (discussing of the videos, solving of doubts and practical exercises, etc.), trying to overcome the disadvantages of self-regulated learning. The results are obtained through the grades of the students and their assessment of the blended experience, based on an opinion survey conducted at the end of the course. The major findings of the study are the following: The percentage of students passing the subject has grown from 53% (average from 2011 to 2014 using traditional learning methodology) to 76% (average from 2015 to 2018 using blended methodology). The average grade has improved from 5.20±1.99 to 6.38±1.66. The results of the opinion survey indicate that most students preferred blended methodology to traditional approaches, and positively valued both courses. In fact, 69% of students felt ‘quite’ or ‘very’ satisfied with the classroom activities; 65% of students preferred the flipped classroom methodology to traditional in-class lectures, and finally, 79% said they were ‘quite’ or ‘very’ satisfied with the course in general. The main conclusions of the experience are the improvement in academic results, as well as the highly satisfactory assessments obtained in the opinion surveys. The results confirm the huge potential of combining MOOCs in formal undergraduate studies with on-campus learning activities. Nevertheless, the results in terms of students’ participation and follow-up have a wide margin for improvement. The method is highly demanding for both students and teachers. As a recommendation, students must perform the assigned tasks with perseverance, every week, in order to take advantage of the face-to-face classes. This perseverance is precisely what needs to be promoted among students because it clearly brings about an improvement in learning.

Keywords: blended learning, educational paradigm, flipped classroom, flipped learning technologies, lessons learned, massive online open course, MOOC, teacher roles through technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: I. N. Nwafia, U. C. Ozumba, M. E. Ohanu, S. O. Ebede

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Antibiotic resistance is increasing globally and has become a major health challenge. Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase is clinically important because the ESBL gene are mostly plasmid encoded and these plasmids frequently carry genes encoding resistance to other classes of antimicrobials thereby limiting antibiotic options in the treatment of infections caused by these organisms. The specific objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of ESBLs production in Escherichia coli, to determine the antibiotic susceptibility pattern of ESBLs producing Escherichia coli, to detect TEM, SHV and CTX-M genes and the risk factors to acquisition of ESBL producing Escherichia coli. The protocol of the study was approved by Health Research and Ethics committee of the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital (UNTH), Enugu. It was a descriptive cross-sectional study that involved all hospitalized patients in UNTH from whose specimens Escherichia coli was isolated during the period of the study. The samples analysed were urine, wound swabs, blood and cerebrospinal fluid. These samples were cultured in 5% sheep Blood agar and MacConkey agar (Oxoid Laboratories, Cambridge UK) and incubated at 35-370C for 24 hours. Escherichia coli was identified with standard biochemical tests and confirmed using API 20E auxanogram (bioMerieux, Marcy 1'Etoile, France). The antibiotic susceptibility testing was done by disc diffusion method and interpreted according to the Clinical and Laboratory Standard Institute guideline. ESBL production was confirmed using ESBL Epsilometer test strips (Liofilchem srl, Italy). The ESBL bla genes were detected with polymerase chain reaction, after extraction of DNA with plasmid mini-prep kit (Jena Bioscience, Jena, Germany). Data analysis was with appropriate descriptive and inferential statistics. One hundred and six isolates (53.00%) out of the 200 were from urine, followed by isolates from different swabs specimens 53(26.50%) and the least number of the isolates 4(2.00) were from blood (P value = 0.096). Seventy (35.00%) out of the 200 isolates, were confirmed positive for ESBL production. Forty-two (60.00%) of the isolates were from female patients while 28(40.00%) were from male patients (P value = 0.13). Sixty-eight (97.14%) of the isolates were susceptible to imipenem while all of the isolates were resistant to ampicillin, chloramphenicol and tetracycline. From the 70 positive isolates the ESBL genes detected with polymerase chain reaction were blaCTX-M (n=26; 37.14%), blaTEM (n=7; 10.00%), blaSHV (n=2; 2.86%), blaCTX-M/TEM (n=7; 10.0%), blaCTX-M/SHV (n=14; 20.0%) and blaCTX-M/TEM/SHV (n=10; 14.29%). There was no gene detected in 4(5.71%) of the isolates. The most associated risk factors to infections caused by ESBL producing Escherichia coli was previous antibiotics use for the past 3 months followed by admission in the intensive care unit, recent surgery, and urinary catheterization. In conclusion, ESBLs was detected in 4 of every 10 Escherichia coli with the predominant gene detected being CTX-M. This knowledge will enable appropriate measures towards improvement of patient health care, antibiotic stewardship, research and infection control in the hospital.

Keywords: antimicrobial, Escherichia coli, extended spectrum beta lactamase, resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Henok Biruk Alemayehu, Kalkidan Berhane Tsegaye, Fozia Seid Ali, Nebiyat Feleke Adimassu, Getasew Alemu Mersha

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Background: Strabismus is a visual disorder where the eyes are misaligned and point in different directions. Untreated strabismus can lead to amblyopia, loss of binocular vision, and social stigma due to its appearance. Since it is assumed that knowledge is pertinent for early screening and prevention of strabismus, the main objective of this study was to assess knowledge and attitudes toward strabismus in Woreta town, Northwest Ethiopia. Providing data in this area is important for planning health policies. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was done in Woreta town from April–May 2020. The sample size was determined using a single population proportion formula by taking a 50% proportion of good knowledge, 95% confidence level, 5% margin of errors, and 10% non- response rate. Accordingly, the final computed sample size was 424. All four kebeles were included in the study. There were 42,595 people in total, with 39,684 adults and 9229 house holds. A sample fraction ’’k’’ was obtained by dividing the number of the household by the calculated sample size of 424. Systematic random sampling with proportional allocation was used to select the participating households with a sampling fraction (K) of 21 i.e. each household was approached in every 21 households included in the study. One individual was selected ran- domly from each household with more than one adult, using the lottery method to obtain a final sample size. The data was collected through a face-to-face interview with a pretested and semi-structured questionnaire which was translated from English to Amharic and back to English to maintain its consistency. Data were entered using epi-data version 3.1, then processed and analyzed via SPSS version- 20. Descriptive and analytical statistics were employed to summarize the data. A p-value of less than 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance. Result: A total of 401 individuals aged over 18 years participated, with a response rate of 94.5%. Of those who responded, 56.6% were males. Of all the participants, 36.9% were illiterate. The proportion of people with poor knowledge of strabismus was 45.1%. It was shown that 53.9% of the respondents had a favorable attitude. Older age, higher educational level, having a history of eye examination, and a having a family history of strabismus were significantly associated with good knowledge of strabismus. A higher educational level, older age, and hearing about strabismus were significantly associated with a favorable attitude toward strabismus. Conclusion and recommendation: The proportion of good knowledge and favorable attitude towards strabismus were lower than previously reported in Gondar City, Northwest Ethiopia. There is a need to provide health education and promotion campaigns on strabismus to the community: what strabismus is, its’ possible treatments and the need to bring children to the eye care center for early diagnosis and treatment. it advocate for prospective research endeavors to employ qualitative study design.Additionally, it suggest the exploration of studies that investigate causal-effect relationship.

Keywords: strabismus, knowledge, attitude, Woreta

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Authors: Huey-Yeu Yan, Ching-Ying Lee, Hung-Ru Lin

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Background: Physical assessment is a vital clinical nursing competence. The gap between conventional teaching method and the way e-generation students’ preferred could be bridged owing to the support of Internet technology, i.e. interacting with online media to manage learning works. Nursing instructors in the wake of new learning pattern of the e-generation students are challenged to actively adjust and make teaching contents and methods more versatile. Objective: The objective of this research is to explore the effects on teaching and learning with live webcast-assisted on a specific topic, Physical Assessment technique, on a designated group of young nursing majors. It’s hoped that, with a way of nursing instructing, more versatile learning resources may be provided to facilitate self-directed learning. Design: This research adopts a cross-sectional descriptive survey. The instructor demonstrated physical assessment techniques and operation procedures via live webcast broadcasted online to all students. It increased both the off-time interaction between teacher and students concerning teaching materials. Methods: A convenient sampling was used to recruit a total of 52 nursing-majors at a certain university. The nursing majors took two-hour classes of Physical Assessment per week for 18 weeks (36 hrs. in total). The instruction covered four units with live webcasting and then conducted an online anonymous survey of learning outcomes by questionnaire. The research instrument was the online questionnaire, covering three major domains—online media used, learning outcome evaluation and evaluation result. The data analysis was conducted via IBM SPSS Statistics Version 2.0. The descriptive statistics was undertaken to describe the analysis of basic data and learning outcomes. Statistical methods such as descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, and Pearson’s correlation were employed in verification. Results: Results indicated the following five major findings. (1) learning motivation, about four fifth of the participants agreed the online instruction resources are very helpful in improving learning motivation and raising the learning interest. (2) learning needs, about four fifth of participants agreed it was helpful to plan self-directed practice after the instruction, and meet their needs of repetitive learning and/or practice at their leisure time. (3) learning effectiveness, about two third agreed it was helpful to reduce pre-exam anxiety, and improve their test scores. (4) course objects, about three fourth agreed that it was helpful to achieve the goal of ‘executing the complete Physical Assessment procedures with proper skills’. (5) finally, learning reflection, about all of participants agreed this experience of online instructing, learning, and practicing is beneficial to them, they recommend instructor to share with other nursing majors, and they will recommend it to fellow students too. Conclusions: Live webcasting is a low-cost, convenient, efficient and interactive resource to facilitate nursing majors’ motivation of learning, need of self-directed learning and practice, outcome of learning. When live webcasting is integrated into nursing teaching, it provides an opportunity of self-directed learning to promote learning effectiveness, as such to fulfill the teaching objective.

Keywords: innovative teaching, learning effectiveness, live webcasting, physical assessment technique

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Authors: Milada Krejci, Martin Hill, Vaclav Hosek, Dobroslava Jandova, Jiri Kajzar, Pavel Blaha

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The paper declares effects of exercise intervention of the research project “Basic research of balance changes in seniors”, granted by the Czech Science Foundation. The objective of the presented study is to define predictors, which influence bio-psycho-social consequences and effects of balance ability in senior 65 years old and above. We focused on the Fall-Efficacy Scale changes evaluation in seniors. Comprehensive hypothesis of the project declares, that motion uncertainty (dyskinesia) can negatively affect the well-being of a senior in bio-psycho-social context. In total, random selection and testing of 100 seniors (30 males, 70 females) from Prague and Central Bohemian region was provided. The sample was divided by stratified random selection into experimental and control groups, who underwent input and output testing. For diagnostics the methods of Medical Anamnesis, Functional anthropological examinations, Tinetti Balance Assessment Tool, SF-36 Health Survey, Anamnestic comparative self-assessment scale were used. Intervention method called "Life in Balance" based on yoga techniques was applied in four-week cycle. Results of multivariate regression were verified by repeated measures ANOVA: subject factor, phase of intervention (between-subject factor), body fluid (within-subject factor) and phase of intervention × body fluid interaction). ANOVA was performed with a repetition involving the factors of subjects, experimental/control group, phase of intervention (independent variable), and x phase interaction followed by Bonferroni multiple comparison assays with a test strength of at least 0.8 on the probability level p < 0.05. In the paper results of the first-year investigation of the three years running project are analysed. Results of balance tests confirmed no significant difference between females and males in pre-test. Significant improvements in balance and walking ability were observed in experimental group in females comparing to males (F = 128.4, p < 0.001). In the females control group, there was no significant change in post- test, while in the female experimental group positive changes in posture and spine flexibility in post-tests were found. It seems that females even in senior age react better to incentives of intervention in balance and spine flexibility. On the base of results analyses, we can declare the significant improvement in social balance markers after intervention in the experimental group (F = 10.5, p < 0.001). In average, seniors are used to take four drugs daily. Number of drugs can contribute to allergy symptoms and balance problems. It can be concluded that static balance and walking ability of seniors according Tinetti Balance scale correlate significantly with psychic and social monitored markers.

Keywords: exercises, balance, seniors 65+, health, mental and social balance

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Authors: Doriane Delafosse, Dominique Fontvieille

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Background: Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) generally display significant efficacy in virus retention yet, are sometimes highly variable, partly in relation to large fluctuating loads at the head of the plant and partly because of episodic dysfunctions in some treatment processes. The problem is especially sensitive when human enteric viruses, such as human Noroviruses Genogroup I or Adenoviruses, are in concern: their release downstream WWTP, in environments often interconnected to recreational areas, may be very harmful to human communities even at low concentrations. It points out the importance of WWTP permanent monitoring from which their internal treatment processes could be adjusted. One way to adjust primary treatments is to add coagulants and flocculants to sewage ahead settling tanks to improve decantation. In this work, sludge produced by three coagulants (two organics, one mineral), four flocculants (three cationic, one anionic), and their combinations were studied for their efficacy in human enteric virus retention. Sewage samples were coming from a WWTP in the vicinity of the laboratory. All experiments were performed three times and in triplicates in laboratory pilots, using Murine Norovirus (MNV-1), a surrogate of human Norovirus, as an internal control (spiking). Viruses were quantified by (RT-)qPCR after nucleic acid extraction from both treated water and sediment. Results: Low values of sludge virus retention (from 4 to 8% of the initial sewage concentration) were observed with each cationic organic flocculant added to wastewater and no coagulant. The largest part of the virus load was detected in the treated water (48 to 90%). However, it was not counterbalancing the amount of the introduced virus (MNV-1). The results pertained to two types of cationic flocculants, branched and linear, and in the last case, to two percentages of cations. Results were quite similar to the association of a linear cationic organic coagulant and an anionic flocculant, though suggesting that differences between water and sludges would sometimes be related to virus size or virus origins (autochthonous/allochthonous). FeCl₃, as a mineral coagulant associated with an anionic flocculant, significantly increased both auto- and allochthonous virus retention in the sediments (15 to 34%). Accordingly, virus load in treated water was lower (14 to 48%) but with a total that still does not reach the amount of the introduced virus (MNV-1). It also appeared that the virus retrieval in a bare 0.1M NaCl suspension varied rather strongly according to the FeCl₃ concentration, suggesting an inhibiting effect on the molecular analysis used to detect the virus. Finally, no viruses were detected in both phases (sediment and water) with the combination branched cationic coagulant-linear anionic flocculant, which was later demonstrated as an effect, here also, of polymers on the virus detection-molecular analysis. Conclusions: The combination of FeCl₃-anionic flocculant gave its highest performance to the decantation-based virus removal process. However, large unbalanced values in spiking experiments were observed, suggesting that polymers cast additional obstacles to both elution buffer and lysis buffer on their way to reach the virus. The situation was probably even worse with autochthonous viruses already embedded into sewage's particulate matter. Polymers and FeCl₃ also appeared to interfere in some steps of molecular analyses. More attention should be paid to such impediments wherever chemical additives are considered to be used to enhance WWTP processes. Acknowledgments: This research was supported by the ABIOLAB laboratory (Montbonnot Saint-Martin, France) and by the ASPOSAN association. Field experiments were possible thanks to the Grand Chambéry WWTP authorities (Chambéry, France).

Keywords: flocculants-coagulants, polymers, enteric viruses, wastewater sedimentation treatment plant

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Authors: Abubakar Bello Usman, Alhassan Muhammad Gani, Kolo Ibrahim

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The use of botanical raw materials to produce pharmaceuticals, herbal remedies, teas, spirits, cosmetics, sweets, dietary supplements, special industrial compounds and crude materials constitute an important global resource in terms of healthcare and economy. In Nigeria and other developing countries, the indigenous knowledge on the uses of plants lies with the older generation and the traditional healers. However, these custodians are decreasing in number due to death and other unforeseen occurrences. An Ethno-botanical survey was carried out to obtain information on the ethno medical values of wide range of plants used by the people of Gombe State, North-Eastern Nigeria, in the practice of healing and cure of typhoid (enteric) fever. Oral interviews were conducted so as to consider those with low literacy level who are involved in the practice of traditional medicine and thirty four (34) informants availed themselves for the interview and were consulted. All relevant information obtained from the respondents was recorded. A recent and valid nomenclature, along with local names, family names, part of the plant(s) used, methods of preparation and administration and fifty four (54) plant species belonging to 27 families as well as 7 unidentified species that are commonly used by the people of the state in ethnomedical treatment of the ailment were tabulated. Those interviewed included traditional practitioners, local herb sellers, traditional rulers, hunters, farmers and patients. Specific questions were asked and information supplied by informants was promptly documented. Results showed that the people of Gombe State are knowledgeable on herbal medicine in the treatment of diseases and ailments. Furthermore, the aqueous leaf extracts of Senna siamea, the plant species with the highest PPK (percentage of people who have knowledge about the use of a species for treating typhoid fever) in this ethnobotanical survey, was tested for its activity against clinical isolates of Salmonella typhi using the agar well diffusion method. The aqueous extracts showed some activity (zones of inhibition 11, 9, 7.5, 3.5, 1.3 mm) at 2000, 1800, 1600, 1400, 1200 µg/ml concentrations respectively. Preliminary phytochemical studies of the aqueous leaf extracts of the plant revealed the presence of secondary metabolites such as alkaloids, saponins, tannins, flavonoids and cardiac glycosides. Though a large number of traditionally used plants for the treatment of enteric fever were identified, further scientific validation of the traditional claims of anti-typhoid properties is imperative. This would establish their candidature for any possible future research for active principles and the possible development of new cheaper and more effective anti-typhoid drugs, as well as in the conservation of this rich diversity of medicinal plants.

Keywords: antimicrobial activities, ethnobotany, gombe state, north-eastern Nigeria, phytochemical screening, senna siamea, typhoid fever

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Alondra Balbuena Medina, Carlos Diaz Delgado, Aleida Yadira Vilchis Fránces

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In Mexico, each year news is disseminated about the ravages of floods, such as the total loss of housing, damage to the fields; the increase of the costs of the food, derived from the losses of the harvests, coupled with health problems such as skin infection, etc. In addition to social problems such as delinquency, damage in education institutions and the population in general. The flooding is a consequence of heavy rains, tropical storms and or hurricanes that generate excess water in drainage systems that exceed its capacity. In urban areas, heavy rains can be one of the main factors in causing flooding, in addition to excessive precipitation, dam breakage, and human activities, for example, excessive garbage in the strainers. In agricultural areas, these can hardly achieve large areas of cultivation. It should be mentioned that for both areas, one of the significant impacts of floods is that they can permanently affect the livelihoods of many families, cause damage, for example in their workplaces such as farmlands, commercial or industry areas and where services are provided. In recent years, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have had an accelerated development, being reflected in the growth and the exponential evolution of the innovation giving; as a result, the daily generation of new technologies, updates, and applications. Innovation in the development of Information Technology applications has impacted on all areas of human activity. They influence all the orders of life of individuals, reconfiguring the way of perceiving and analyzing the world such as, for instance, interrelating with people as individuals and as a society, in the economic, political, social, cultural, educational, environmental, etc. Therefore the present work describes the creation of a system of calculation of flood costs for housing areas, retail establishments and agricultural areas from the Mexican Republic, based on the use and application of geotechnical tools being able to be useful for the benefit of the sectors of public, education and private. To generate analysis of hydrometereologic affections and with the obtained results to realize the Geoinformatics tool was constructed from two different points of view: the geoinformatic (design and development of GIS software) and the methodology of flood damage validation in order to integrate a tool that provides the user the monetary estimate of the effects caused by the floods. With information from the period 2000-2014, the functionality of the application was corroborated. For the years 2000 to 2009 only the analysis of the agricultural and housing areas was carried out, incorporating for the commercial establishment's information of the period 2010 - 2014. The method proposed for the resolution of this research project is a fundamental contribution to society, in addition to the tool itself. Therefore, it can be summarized that the problems that are in the physical-geographical environment, conceiving them from the point of view of the spatial analysis, allow to offer different alternatives of solution and also to open up slopes towards academia and research.

Keywords: floods, technological innovation, monetary estimation, spatial analysis

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