Search results for: failure detection and prediction

Authors: Langa Hendrick Musawenkosi, Twala Bhekisipho

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The success or failure of students is a concern for every academic institution, college, university, governments and students themselves. Several approaches have been researched to address this concern. In this paper, a view is held that when a student enters a university or college or an academic institution, he or she enters an academic environment. The academic environment is unique concept used to develop the solution for making predictions effectively. This paper presents a model to determine the propensity of a student to succeed or fail in the French South African Schneider Electric Education Center (FSASEC) at the Vaal University of Technology (VUT). The Decision Tree algorithm is used to implement the model at FSASEC.

Keywords: FSASEC, academic environment model, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor, machine learning, popularity index, support vector machine

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Authors: Nasser-Eddine Attari

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After the earthquake many structures were classified as slightly damaged and, being uneconomic to replace them, at least in the short term, suitable means of repairs of the beam column joint area are being studied. Furthermore, there exist a large number of buildings that need retrofitting of the joints before the next earthquake. The paper reports the results of the experimental programme, constituted of three beam-column reinforced concrete joints at a scale of one to three (1/3) tested under the effect of a pre-stressing axial load acting over the column. The beams were subjected at their ends to an alternate cyclic loading under displacement control to simulate a seismic action. Strain and cracking fields were monitored with the help a digital recording camera. Following the analysis of the results, a comparison can be made between the performances in terms of ductility, strength, and mode of failure of the different strengthening solution considered.

Keywords: fibre reinforced polymers, joints, reinforced concrete, beam columns

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Authors: T. Hennedige

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Imaging plays a crucial role in the evaluation of the extent of peritoneal disease, which in turn determines prognosis and treatment choice. Despite advances in imaging technology, assessment of the peritoneum remains relatively challenging secondary to its large surface area, complex anatomy, and variety of imaging modalities available. This poster will review the mechanisms of spread, namely intraperitoneal dissemination, directly along peritoneal pathways, haematogeneous dissemination, and lymphatic spread. This will be followed by a side-by-side pictorial comparison of the detection of peritoneal deposits using CT, MRI, and PET/CT, depicting the advantages and shortcomings of each modality. An imaging selection framework will then be presented, which may aid the clinician in selecting the appropriate imaging modality for the malignancy in question.

Keywords: imaging, CT, malignancy, MRI, peritoneum, PET

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Authors: M. Humayun Kabir, Mahamuda Afroze, K. Maudood Elahi

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Since the late 1900s, unplanned and rapid urbanization processes have drastically altered the land, reduced water bodies, and decreased vegetation cover in the capital city of Bangladesh, Dhaka. The capitalist modes of urbanization results in the encroachment of the surface water bodies in this city. The main goal of this study is to investigate the change detection of water bodies in Dhaka city, analyzing spatial distribution of water bodies and calculating the changing rate of it. This effort aims to influence public policy for environmental justice initiatives around protecting water bodies for ensuring proper function of the urban ecosystem. This study accomplishes research goal by compiling satellite imageries into GIS software to understand the changes of water bodies in Dhaka city. The work focuses on the late 20th century to early 21st century to analyze this city before and after major infrastructural changes occurred in unplanned manner. The land use of the study area has been classified into four categories, and the areas of the different land use have been calculated using MS Excel and SPSS. The results reveal that the urbanization expanded from central to northern part and major encroachment occurred at the western and eastern part of the city. It has also been found that, in 1988, the total area of water bodies was 8935.38 hectares, and it gradually decreased, and in 1998, 2008, 2017, the total areas of water bodies reached 6065.73, 4853.32, 2077.56 hectares, respectively. Rapid population growth, unplanned urbanization, and industrialization have generated pressure to change the land use pattern in Dhaka city. These expansion processes are engulfing wetland, water bodies, and vegetation cover without considering environmental impact. In order to regain the wetland and surface water bodies, the concern authorities must implement laws and act as a legal instrument in this regard and take action against the violators of it. This research is the synthesis of time series data that provides a complete picture of the water body’s status of Dhaka city that might help to make plans and policies for water body conservation.

Keywords: ecosystem, GIS, industrialization, land use, remote sensing, urbanization

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Authors: M. Khoukhi

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Accurate prediction of the cooling/heating load and consequently, the sizing of the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning equipment require precise calculation of the heat transfer mainly by conduction through envelope components of a building. The thermal resistance of most thermal insulation materials depends on the operating temperature. The temperature to which the insulation materials are exposed varies, depending on the thermal resistance of the materials, the location of the insulation layer within the assembly system, and the effective temperature which depends on the amount of solar radiation received on the surface of the assembly. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the change of the thermal conductivity of polystyrene insulation material in terms of the temperature at the mid-thickness of the material and its effect on the cooling load required by the building.

Keywords: operating temperature, polystyrene insulation, thermal conductivity, cooling load

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Authors: Horea-Serban Raluca-Ioana, Istrate Marinela

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The first part of the paper analyzes the dynamics of the total fertility rate both at the national and regional level, pointing out the regional disparities in the distribution of this indicator. At the same time, we also focus on the collapse of the number of live births, on the changes in the fertility rate by birth rank, as well as on the failure of acquiring the desired number of children. The second part of the study centres upon a survey applied to urban families with 3 and more than 3 offspring. The preliminary analysis highlights the fact that an increased fertility (more than 3rd rank) is triggered by the parents’ above the average material condition and superior education. The current situation of Romania, which is still passing through a period of relatively rapid demographic changes, marked by numerous convulsions, requires a new approach, in compliance with the recent interpretations appropriate to a new post-transitional demographic regime.

Keywords: fertility rate, family size intention, third birth rank, regional disparities

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Authors: Sowmiyaa V. S., Tiruvengala Padma, Dhanasekaran B.

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Due to urbanization, traffic congestion, air pollution and fuel consumption underground metros are constructed in urban cities nowadays. These metros reduce the commutation time and makes the daily transportation in urban cities hassle free. To construct the underground metros deep excavations are to be carried out. These excavations should be supported by an appropriate earth retaining structures to provide stability and to prevent deformation failures. The failure of deep excavations is catastrophic and hence appropriate caution need to be carried out during design and construction stages. This paper covers the construction aspects, equipment, quality control, design aspects of one of the earth retaining systems the Diaphragm Walls.

Keywords: underground metros, diaphragm wall, quality control of diaphragm wall, design aspects of diaphragm wall

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Authors: Nordila Ahmad, Thamer Mohammad, Bruce W. Melville, Zuliziana Suif

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Current methods for predicting local scour at wide bridge piers, were developed on the basis of laboratory studies and very limited scour prediction were tested with field data. Laboratory wide pier scour equation from previous findings with field data were presented. A wide range of field data were used and it consists of both live-bed and clear-water scour. A method for assessing the quality of the data was developed and applied to the data set. Three other wide pier-scour equations from the literature were used to compare the performance of each predictive method. The best-performing scour equation were analyzed using statistical analysis. Comparisons of computed and observed scour depths indicate that the equation from the previous publication produced the smallest discrepancy ratio and RMSE value when compared with the large amount of laboratory and field data.

Keywords: field data, local scour, scour equation, wide piers

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Authors: Ankan Roy, Niharika, Samir Kumar Patra

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Anomalous nexus of complex topological assemblies and spatiotemporal epigenetic choreography at chromosomal territory may forms the most sophisticated regulatory layer of gene expression in cancer. Colon cancer is one of the leading malignant neoplasms of the lower gastrointestinal tract worldwide. There is still a paucity of information about the complex molecular mechanisms of colonic cancerogenesis. Bioinformatics prediction and analysis helps to identify essential genes and significant pathways for monitoring and conquering this deadly disease. The present study investigates and explores potential hub genes as biomarkers and effective therapeutic targets for colon cancer treatment. Colon cancer patient sample containing gene expression profile datasets, such as GSE44076, GSE20916, and GSE37364 were downloaded from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database and thoroughly screened using the GEO2R tool and Funrich software to find out common 2 differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Other approaches, including Gene Ontology (GO) and KEGG pathway analysis, Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) network construction and hub gene investigation, Overall Survival (OS) analysis, gene correlation analysis, methylation pattern analysis, and hub gene-Transcription factors regulatory network construction, were performed and validated using various bioinformatics tool. Initially, we identified 166 DEGs, including 68 up-regulated and 98 down-regulated genes. Up-regulated genes are mainly associated with the Cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction, IL17 signaling pathway, ECM-receptor interaction, Focal adhesion and PI3K-Akt pathway. Downregulated genes are enriched in metabolic pathways, retinol metabolism, Steroid hormone biosynthesis, and bile secretion. From the protein-protein interaction network, thirty hub genes with high connectivity are selected using the MCODE and cytoHubba plugin. Survival analysis, expression validation, correlation analysis, and methylation pattern analysis were further verified using TCGA data. Finally, we predicted COL1A1, COL1A2, COL4A1, SPP1, SPARC, and THBS2 as potential master regulators in colonic cancerogenesis. Moreover, our experimental data highlights that disruption of lipid raft and RAS/MAPK signaling cascade affects this gene hub at mRNA level. We identified COL1A1, COL1A2, COL4A1, SPP1, SPARC, and THBS2 as determinant hub genes in colon cancer progression. They can be considered as biomarkers for diagnosis and promising therapeutic targets in colon cancer treatment. Additionally, our experimental data advertise that signaling pathway act as connecting link between membrane hub and gene hub.

Keywords: hub genes, colon cancer, DNA methylation, epigenetic engineering, bioinformatic predictions

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Authors: Karan Sharma, Ajay Kumar

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Epileptic seizure is a type of disease due to which electrical charge in the brain flows abruptly resulting in abnormal activity by the subject. One percent of total world population gets epileptic seizure attacks.Due to abrupt flow of charge, EEG (Electroencephalogram) waveforms change. On the display appear a lot of spikes and sharp waves in the EEG signals. Detection of epileptic seizure by using conventional methods is time-consuming. Many methods have been evolved that detect it automatically. The initial part of this paper provides the review of techniques used to detect epileptic seizure automatically. The automatic detection is based on the feature extraction and classification patterns. For better accuracy decomposition of the signal is required before feature extraction. A number of parameters are calculated by the researchers using different techniques e.g. approximate entropy, sample entropy, Fuzzy approximate entropy, intrinsic mode function, cross-correlation etc. to discriminate between a normal signal & an epileptic seizure signal.The main objective of this review paper is to present the variations in the EEG signals at both stages (i) Interictal (recording between the epileptic seizure attacks). (ii) Ictal (recording during the epileptic seizure), using most appropriate methods of analysis to provide better healthcare diagnosis. This research paper then investigates the effects of a noninvasive healing therapy on the subjects by studying the EEG signals using latest signal processing techniques. The study has been conducted with Reiki as a healing technique, beneficial for restoring balance in cases of body mind alterations associated with an epileptic seizure. Reiki is practiced around the world and is recommended for different health services as a treatment approach. Reiki is an energy medicine, specifically a biofield therapy developed in Japan in the early 20th century. It is a system involving the laying on of hands, to stimulate the body’s natural energetic system. Earlier studies have shown an apparent connection between Reiki and the autonomous nervous system. The Reiki sessions are applied by an experienced therapist. EEG signals are measured at baseline, during session and post intervention to bring about effective epileptic seizure control or its elimination altogether.

Keywords: EEG signal, Reiki, time consuming, epileptic seizure

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Authors: Kelaiaia Mounia Samira, Labar Hocine, Mesbah Tarek, Kelaiaia samia

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The photovoltaic panel produces green power, and because of its availability across the globe, it can supply isolated loads (site away of the electrical network or difficult of access). Unfortunately this energy remains very expensive. The most application of these types of power needs storage devices, the Lithium batteries are commonly used because of its powerful storage capability. Using a solar panel or an array of panels without a controller that can perform MPPT will often result in wasted power, which results in the need to install more panels for the same power requirement. For devices that have the battery connected directly to the panel, this will also result in premature battery failure or capacity loss. In this paper it is proposed a modified P&O algorithm for the MPPT which takes in account the battery’s internal resistance vs temperature and stage of charging. Of course the temperature variation and irradiation of the PV panel are also introduced.

Keywords: modeling, battery, MPPT, charging, PV Panel

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Authors: Béla Kovács, Éva Bódi, Farzaneh Garousi, Szilvia Várallyay, Dávid Andrási

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For analysis of elements in different food, feed and food raw material samples generally a flame atomic absorption spectrometer (FAAS), a graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometer (GF-AAS), an inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer (ICP-OES) and an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) are applied. All the analytical instruments have different physical and chemical interfering effects analysing food and food raw material samples. The smaller the concentration of an analyte and the larger the concentration of the matrix the larger the interfering effects. Nowadays, it is very important to analyse growingly smaller concentrations of elements. From the above analytical instruments generally the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer is capable of analysing the smallest concentration of elements. The applied ICP-MS instrument has Collision Cell Technology (CCT) also. Using CCT mode certain elements have better detection limits with 1-3 magnitudes comparing to a normal ICP-MS analytical method. The CCT mode has better detection limits mainly for analysis of selenium (arsenic, germanium, vanadium, and chromium). To elaborate an analytical method for selenium with an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer the most important interfering effects (problems) were evaluated: 1) isobaric elemental, 2) isobaric molecular, and 3) physical interferences. Analysing food and food raw material samples an other (new) interfering effect emerged in ICP-MS, namely the effect of various matrixes having different evaporation and nebulization effectiveness, moreover having different quantity of carbon content of food, feed and food raw material samples. In our research work the effect of different water-soluble compounds furthermore the effect of various quantity of carbon content (as sample matrix) were examined on changes of intensity of selenium. So finally we could find “opportunities” to decrease the error of selenium analysis. To analyse selenium in food, feed and food raw material samples, the most appropriate inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer is a quadrupole instrument applying a collision cell technique (CCT). The extent of interfering effect of carbon content depends on the type of compounds. The carbon content significantly affects the measured concentration (intensities) of Se, which can be corrected using internal standard (arsenic or tellurium).

Keywords: selenium, ICP-MS, food, food raw material

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Authors: Wenyu Guo, Malachy O’Rourke, Mark Bowkett, Michael Gilchrist

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Many devices for real-time monitoring of surface water have been developed in the past few years to provide early warning of pollutions and so to decrease the risk of environmental pollution efficiently. One of the most common methodologies used in the detection system is a colorimetric process, in which a container with fixed volume is filled with target ions and reagents to combine a colorimetric dye. The colorimetric ions can sensitively absorb a specific-wavelength radiation beam, and its absorbance rate is proportional to the concentration of the fully developed product, indicating the concentration of target nutrients in the pre-mixed water samples. In order to achieve precise and rapid detection effect, channels with dimensions in the order of micrometers, i.e., microfluidic systems have been developed and introduced into these diagnostics studies. Microfluidics technology largely reduces the surface to volume ratios and decrease the samples/reagents consumption significantly. However, species transport in such miniaturized channels is limited by the low Reynolds numbers in the regimes. Thus, the flow is extremely laminar state, and diffusion is the dominant mass transport process all over the regimes of the microfluidic channels. The objective of this present work has been to analyse the mixing effect and chemistry kinetics in a stop-flow microfluidic device measuring Nitride concentrations in fresh water samples. In order to improve the temporal resolution of the Nitride microfluidic sensor, we have used computational fluid dynamics to investigate the influence that the effectiveness of the mixing process between the sample and reagent within a microfluidic device exerts on the time to completion of the resulting chemical reaction. This computational approach has been complemented by physical experiments. The kinetics of the Griess reaction involving the conversion of sulphanilic acid to a diazonium salt by reaction with nitrite in acidic solution is set in the Laminar Finite-rate chemical reaction in the model. Initially, a methodology was developed to assess the degree of mixing of the sample and reagent within the device. This enabled different designs of the mixing channel to be compared, such as straight, square wave and serpentine geometries. Thereafter, the time to completion of the Griess reaction within a straight mixing channel device was modeled and the reaction time validated with experimental data. Further simulations have been done to compare the reaction time to effective mixing within straight, square wave and serpentine geometries. Results show that square wave channels can significantly improve the mixing effect and provides a low standard deviations of the concentrations of nitride and reagent, while for straight channel microfluidic patterns the corresponding values are 2-3 orders of magnitude greater, and consequently are less efficiently mixed. This has allowed us to design novel channel patterns of micro-mixers with more effective mixing that can be used to detect and monitor levels of nutrients present in water samples, in particular, Nitride. Future generations of water quality monitoring and diagnostic devices will easily exploit this technology.

Keywords: nitride detection, computational fluid dynamics, chemical kinetics, mixing effect

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Authors: I. B. Patel, K. A. Mistry, A. H. Prajapati

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Biologically synthesized colloidal Pd nanoparticles were impregnated on porous aluminium. In this paper, the obtained Pd/Al2O3 catalysts were characterized by XRD, SEM, and TEM. The effects of deposited films on the performances of Pd/Al2O3 in adsorption, reduction, and catalytic reaction of CO2 were investigated. The results showed that the deposited films can remarkably improve the dispersion of active components and enhance the reactivity of Pd/Al2O3 catalyst. The catalytic performance of Pd/Al2O3 in term of surface reaction is also enhanced in terms of sensitivity (SF = 850) obtained through conventional CBD method.

Keywords: palladium nanoparticles, Pd/Al2O3, carbon dioxide, aluminium catalyst

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Authors: I. Gkolfinopoulos, N. Chijiwa

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To evaluate the remaining capacity in concrete tensioned members, it is important to accurately estimate damage in precast concrete tendons. In this research Johnson-Cook model and damage parameters of high-strength steel material were calculated by static and dynamic uniaxial tensile tests. Replication of experimental results was achieved through finite element analysis for both single 8-noded three-dimensional element as well as the full-scale dob-bone shaped model and relevant model parameters are proposed. Finally, simulation results in terms of strain and deformation were verified using digital image correlation analysis.

Keywords: DIC analysis, Johnson-Cook, quasi-static, dynamic, rupture, tendon

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Authors: Quentin C.P. Bourgogne, Vanessa Bouchart, Pierre Chevrier, Emmanuel Dattoli

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This study presents an experimental and theoretical work conducted on a PolyPhenylene Sulfide reinforced with 40%wt of short glass fibers (PPS GF40) and its matrix. Thermoplastics are widely used in the automotive industry to lightweight automotive parts. The replacement of metallic parts by thermoplastics is reaching under-the-hood parts, near the engine. In this area, the parts are subjected to high temperatures and are immersed in cooling liquid. This liquid is composed of water and glycol and can affect the mechanical properties of the composite. The aim of this work was thus to quantify the evolution of mechanical properties of the thermoplastic composite, as a function of temperature and liquid aging effects, in order to develop a reliable design of parts. An experimental campaign in the tensile mode was carried out at different temperatures and for various glycol proportions in the cooling liquid, for monotonic and cyclic loadings on a neat and a reinforced PPS. The results of these tests allowed to highlight some of the main physical phenomena occurring during these solicitations under tough hydro-thermal conditions. Indeed, the performed tests showed that temperature and liquid cooling aging can affect the mechanical behavior of the material in several ways. The more the cooling liquid contains water, the more the mechanical behavior is affected. It was observed that PPS showed a higher sensitivity to absorption than to chemical aggressiveness of the cooling liquid, explaining this dominant sensitivity. Two kinds of behaviors were noted: an elasto-plastic type under the glass transition temperature and a visco-pseudo-plastic one above it. It was also shown that viscosity is the leading phenomenon above the glass transition temperature for the PPS and could also be important under this temperature, mostly under cyclic conditions and when the stress rate is low. Finally, it was observed that soliciting this composite at high temperatures is decreasing the advantages of the presence of fibers. A new phenomenological model was then built to take into account these experimental observations. This new model allowed the prediction of the evolution of mechanical properties as a function of the loading environment, with a reduced number of parameters compared to precedent studies. It was also shown that the presented approach enables the description and the prediction of the mechanical response with very good accuracy (2% of average error at worst), over a wide range of hydrothermal conditions. A temperature-humidity equivalence principle was underlined for the PPS, allowing the consideration of aging effects within the proposed model. Then, a limit of improvement of the reachable accuracy was determinate for all models using this set of data by the application of an artificial intelligence-based model allowing a comparison between artificial intelligence-based models and phenomenological based ones.

Keywords: aging, analytical modeling, mechanical testing, polymer matrix composites, sequential model, thermomechanical

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Authors: Ahmed Auda, Manjree Agarwala, Giles Hardya, Yonglin Rena

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Botrytis cinerea is a major pest for many plants. It can attack a wide range of plant parts. It can attack buds, flowers, and leaves, stems, and fruit. However, B. cinerea can be mixed with other diseases that cause the same damage. There are many species of botrytis and more than one different strains of each. Botrytis might infect the foliage of nursery stock stored through winter in damp conditions. There are no known resistant plants. Botrytis must have nutrients or food source before it infests the plant. Nutrients leaking from wounded plant parts or dying tissue like old flower petals give the required nutrients. From this food, the fungus becomes more attackers and invades healthy tissue. Dark to light brown rot forms in the ill tissue. High humidity conditions support the growth of this fungus. However, we suppose that selection pressure can act on the morphological and neurophysiologic filter properties of the receiver and on both the biochemical and the physiological regulation of the signal. Communication is implied when signal and receiver evolves toward more and more specific matching, culminating. In other hand, receivers respond to portions of a body odor bouquet which is released to the environment not as an (intentional) signal but as an unavoidable consequence of metabolic activity or tissue damage. Each year Botrytis species can cause considerable economic losses to plant crops. Even with the application of strict quarantine and control measures, these fungi can still find their way into crops and cause the imposition of onerous restrictions on exports. Blueberry fruit mould caused by a fungal infection usually results in major losses during post-harvest storage. Therefore, the management of infection in early stages of disease development is necessary to minimize losses. The overall purpose of this study will develop sensitive, cheap, quick and robust diagnostic techniques for the detection of B. cinerea in blueberry. The specific aim was designed to investigate the performance of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the detection and discrimination of blueberry fruits infected by fungal pathogens with an emphasis on Botrytis in the early storage stage of post-harvest.

Keywords: botrytis cinerea, blueberry, GC/MS, VOCs

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Authors: Hafiz Gulfam Ahmad, Chuangdong Li, Zeeshan Ahmad

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In this paper, we proposed a parallel IDS and honeypot based approach to detect and analyze the unknown and known attack taxonomy for improving the IDS performance and protecting the network from intruders. The main theme of our approach is to record and analyze the intruder activities by using both the low and high interaction honeypots. Our architecture aims to achieve the required goals by combing signature based IDS, honeypots and generate the new signatures. The paper describes the basic component, design and implementation of this approach and also demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach reducing the probability of network attacks.

Keywords: network security, intrusion detection, honeypot, snort, nmap

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Authors: Pawel Twardowski, Maciej Tabaszewski, Jakub Czyżycki

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The main goal of the work was to use machine learning to predict cutting-edge wear. The research was carried out while milling hardened steel with sintered carbide cutters at various cutting speeds. During the tests, cutting-edge wear was measured, and vibration acceleration signals were also measured. Appropriate measures were determined from the vibration signals and served as input data in the machine-learning process. Two approaches were used in this work. The first one involved a two-state classification of the cutting edge - suitable and unfit for further work. In the second approach, prediction of the cutting-edge state based on vibration signals was used. The obtained research results show that the appropriate use of machine learning algorithms gives excellent results related to monitoring cutting edge during the process.

Keywords: milling of hardened steel, tool wear, vibrations, machine learning

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Authors: Manthan Patel, Vinit Ahlawat, Anshh Singh Claire, Pijush Samui

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This paper focuses on the analysis of quicksand condition for a dam foundation. The quicksand condition occurs in cohesion less soil when effective stress of soil becomes zero. In a dam, the saturated sediment may appear quite solid until a sudden change in pressure or shock initiates liquefaction. This causes the sand to form a suspension and lose strength hence resulting in failure of dam. A soil profile shows different properties at different points and the values obtained are uncertain thus reliability analysis is performed. The reliability is defined as probability of safety of a system in a given environment and loading condition and it is assessed as Reliability Index. The reliability analysis of dams under quicksand condition is carried by Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Reliability index and factor of safety relating to liquefaction of soil is analysed using GPR. The results of reliability analysis by GPR is compared to that of conventional method and it is demonstrated that on applying GPR the probabilistic analysis reduces the computational time and efforts.

Keywords: factor of safety, GPR, reliability index, quicksand

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Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

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Authors: Saran Toure

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Complex shaped parts manufactured using out of autoclave prepreg vacuum bagging has a high quality finish. This is not only due to in the control of resin to fibre ratio in prepregs, but also to a reduction in fibre misalignment, slippage and stresses occurring within plies during compaction. In a bid to further reduce deformation modes and control failure modes, we carried experiments where, we introduced wetted fabrics within a prepreg plybook during compaction. Here are presented the results obtained from the vacuum bagging of a complex shaped part. The shape is that of a turbine fan blade with smooth curves all throughout ending with sharp edged angles. The quality of the final part made from this blade is compared to that of the same blade made from standard vacuum bagging process of prepregs, without introducing wetted fabrics.

Keywords: complex shaped part, prepregs, drapability, vacuum bagging

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Authors: Somnath Bhattacharya, Kamal Sharma, Vaibhav Sonkar

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Composite materials emerged in the middle of the 20th century as a promising class of engineering materials providing new prospects for modern technology. Recently, a new class of composite materials known as functionally graded materials (FGMs) has drawn considerable attention of the scientific community. In general, FGMs are defined as composite materials in which the composition or microstructure or both are locally varied so that a certain variation of the local material properties is achieved. This gradual change in composition and microstructure of material is suitable to get gradient of properties and performances. FGMs are synthesized in such a way that they possess continuous spatial variations in volume fractions of their constituents to yield a predetermined composition. These variations lead to the formation of a non-homogeneous macrostructure with continuously varying mechanical and / or thermal properties in one or more than one direction. Lightweight functionally graded composites with high strength to weight and stiffness to weight ratios have been used successfully in aircraft industry and other engineering applications like in electronics industry and in thermal barrier coatings. In the present work, elastic-plastic crack growth problems (using Ramberg-Osgood Model) in an FGM plate under cyclic load has been explored by extended finite element method. Both edge and centre crack problems have been solved by taking additionally holes, inclusions and minor cracks under plane stress conditions. Both soft and hard inclusions have been implemented in the problems. The validity of linear elastic fracture mechanics theory is limited to the brittle materials. A rectangular plate of functionally graded material of length 100 mm and height 200 mm with 100% copper-nickel alloy on left side and 100% ceramic (alumina) on right side is considered in the problem. Exponential gradation in property is imparted in x-direction. A uniform traction of 100 MPa is applied to the top edge of the rectangular domain along y direction. In some problems, domain contains major crack along with minor cracks or / and holes or / and inclusions. Major crack is located the centre of the left edge or the centre of the domain. The discontinuities, such as minor cracks, holes, and inclusions are added either singly or in combination with each other. On the basis of this study, it is found that effect of minor crack in the domain’s failure crack length is minimum whereas soft inclusions have moderate effect and the effect of holes have maximum effect. It is observed that the crack growth is more before the failure in each case when hard inclusions are present in place of soft inclusions.

Keywords: elastic-plastic, fatigue crack, functionally graded materials, extended finite element method (XFEM)

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Authors: Merve Uzuner Sahin, Kumru D. Atalay, Berna Dengiz

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In today’s competitive market, there are many alternative products that can be used in similar manner and purpose. Therefore, the utility of the product is an important issue for the preferability of the brand. This utility could be measured in terms of its functionality, durability, reliability. These all are affected by the system capabilities. Reliability is an important system design criteria for the manufacturers to be able to have high availability. Availability is the probability that a system (or a component) is operating properly to its function at a specific point in time or a specific period of times. System availability provides valuable input to estimate the production rate for the company to realize the production plan. When considering only the corrective maintenance downtime of the system, mean time between failure (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) are used to obtain system availability. Also, the MTBF and MTTR values are important measures to improve system performance by adopting suitable maintenance strategies for reliability engineers and practitioners working in a system. Failure and repair time probability distributions of each component in the system should be known for the conventional availability analysis. However, generally, companies do not have statistics or quality control departments to store such a large amount of data. Real events or situations are defined deterministically instead of using stochastic data for the complete description of real systems. A fuzzy set is an alternative theory which is used to analyze the uncertainty and vagueness in real systems. The aim of this study is to present a novel approach to compute system availability using representation of MTBF and MTTR in fuzzy numbers. Based on the experience in the system, it is decided to choose 3 different spread of MTBF and MTTR such as 15%, 20% and 25% to obtain lower and upper limits of the fuzzy numbers. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed method is the first application that is used fuzzy MTBF and fuzzy MTTR for fuzzy system availability estimation. This method is easy to apply in any repairable production system by practitioners working in industry. It is provided that the reliability engineers/managers/practitioners could analyze the system performance in a more consistent and logical manner based on fuzzy availability. This paper presents a real case study of a repairable multi-stage production line in lead-acid battery production factory in Turkey. The following is focusing on the considered wet-charging battery process which has a higher production level than the other types of battery. In this system, system components could exist only in two states, working or failed, and it is assumed that when a component in the system fails, it becomes as good as new after repair. Instead of classical methods, using fuzzy set theory and obtaining intervals for these measures would be very useful for system managers, practitioners to analyze system qualifications to find better results for their working conditions. Thus, much more detailed information about system characteristics is obtained.

Keywords: availability analysis, battery production system, fuzzy sets, triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs)

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Authors: Fidelis E. Uwumiro, Chimaobi O. Nwevo, Favour O. Osemwota, Victory O. Okpujie, Emeka S. Obi, Omamuyovbi F. Nwoagbe, Ejiroghene Tejere, Joycelyn Adjei-Mensah, Christopher N. Ekeh, Charles T. Ogbodo

Abstract:

Several risk factors associated with cardiovascular events have been identified as specific to Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD). This study endeavors to validate these CKD-specific risk factors using up-to-date national-level data, thereby highlighting the crucial significance of confirming the validity and generalizability of findings obtained from previous studies conducted on smaller patient populations. The study utilized the nationwide inpatient sample database to identify adult hospitalizations for CKD from 2016 to 2020, employing validated ICD-10-CM/PCS codes. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify both traditional and CKD-specific risk factors associated with cardiovascular events. Risk factors and cardiovascular events were defined using a combination of ICD-10-CM/PCS codes and statistical commands. Only risk factors with specific ICD-10 codes and hospitalizations with complete data were included in the study. Cardiovascular events of interest included cardiac arrhythmias, sudden cardiac death, acute heart failure, and acute coronary syndromes. Univariate and multivariate regression models were employed to evaluate the association between chronic kidney disease-specific risk factors and cardiovascular events while adjusting for the impact of traditional CV risk factors such as old age, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, inactivity, and smoking. A total of 690,375 hospitalizations for CKD were included in the analysis. The study population was predominantly male (375,564, 54.4%) and primarily received care at urban teaching hospitals (512,258, 74.2%). The mean age of the study population was 61 years (SD 0.1), and 86.7% (598,555) had a CCI of 3 or more. At least one traditional risk factor for CV events was present in 84.1% of all hospitalizations (580,605), while 65.4% (451,505) included at least one CKD-specific risk factor for CV events. The incidence of CV events in the study was as follows: acute coronary syndromes (41,422; 6%), sudden cardiac death (13,807; 2%), heart failure (404,560; 58.6%), and cardiac arrhythmias (124,267; 18%). 91.7% (113,912) of all cardiac arrhythmias were atrial fibrillations. Significant odds of cardiovascular events on multivariate analyses included: malnutrition (aOR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.06–1.13; p<0.001), post-dialytic hypotension (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.26–1.42; p<0.001), thrombophilia (aOR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.29–1.65; p<0.001), sleep disorder (aOR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09–1.25; p<0.001), and post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy (aOR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.26–1.53; p<0.001). The study validated malnutrition, post-dialytic hypotension, thrombophilia, sleep disorders, and post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy, highlighting their association with increased risk for cardiovascular events in CKD patients. No significant association was observed between uremic syndrome, hyperhomocysteinemia, hyperuricemia, hypertriglyceridemia, leptin levels, carnitine deficiency, anemia, and the odds of experiencing cardiovascular events.

Keywords: cardiovascular events, cardiovascular risk factors in CKD, chronic kidney disease, nationwide inpatient sample

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Authors: Taher Abofol, Eldad Yechiam, Thorsten Pachur

Abstract:

In four studies, we examined whether seller and buyers differ not only in subjective price levels for objects (i.e., the endowment effect) but also in their relative accuracy given objects varying in expected value. If, as has been proposed, sellers stand to accrue a more substantial loss than buyers do, then their pricing decisions should be more sensitive to expected-value differences between objects. This is implied by loss aversion due to the steeper slope of prospect theory’s value function for losses than for gains, as well as by loss attention account, which posits that losses increase the attention invested in a task. Both accounts suggest that losses increased sensitivity to relative values of different objects, which should result in better alignment of pricing decisions to the objective value of objects on the part of sellers. Under loss attention, this characteristic should only emerge under certain boundary conditions. In Study 1 a published dataset was reanalyzed, in which 152 participants indicated buying or selling prices for monetary lotteries with different expected values. Relative EV sensitivity was calculated for participants as the Spearman rank correlation between their pricing decisions for each of the lotteries and the lotteries' expected values. An ANOVA revealed a main effect of perspective (sellers versus buyers), F(1,150) = 85.3, p < .0001 with greater EV sensitivity for sellers. Study 2 examined the prediction (implied by loss attention) that the positive effect of losses on performance emerges particularly under conditions of time constraints. A published dataset was reanalyzed, where 84 participants were asked to provide selling and buying prices for monetary lotteries in three deliberations time conditions (5, 10, 15 seconds). As in Study 1, an ANOVA revealed greater EV sensitivity for sellers than for buyers, F(1,82) = 9.34, p = .003. Importantly, there was also an interaction of perspective by deliberation time. Post-hoc tests revealed that there were main effects of perspective both in the condition with 5s deliberation time, and in the condition with 10s deliberation time, but not in the 15s condition. Thus, sellers’ EV-sensitivity advantage disappeared with extended deliberation. Study 3 replicated the design of study 1 but administered the task three times to test if the effect decays with repeated presentation. The results showed that the difference between buyers and sellers’ EV sensitivity was replicated in repeated task presentations. Study 4 examined the loss attention prediction that EV-sensitivity differences can be eliminated by manipulations that reduce the differential attention investment of sellers and buyers. This was carried out by randomly mixing selling and buying trials for each participant. The results revealed no differences in EV sensitivity between selling and buying trials. The pattern of results is consistent with an attentional resource-based account of the differences between sellers and buyers. Thus, asking people to price, an object from a seller's perspective rather than the buyer's improves the relative accuracy of pricing decisions; subtle changes in the framing of one’s perspective in a trading negotiation may improve price accuracy.

Keywords: decision making, endowment effect, pricing, loss aversion, loss attention

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Uraib Sharaha, Ahmad Salman, Eladio Rodriguez-Diaz, Elad Shufan, Klaris Riesenberg, Irving J. Bigio, Mahmoud Huleihel

Abstract:

Antimicrobial drugs have an important role in controlling illness associated with infectious diseases in animals and humans. However, the increasing resistance of bacteria to a broad spectrum of commonly used antibiotics has become a global health-care problem. Rapid determination of antimicrobial susceptibility of a clinical isolate is often crucial for the optimal antimicrobial therapy of infected patients and in many cases can save lives. The conventional methods for susceptibility testing like disk diffusion are time-consuming and other method including E-test, genotyping are relatively expensive. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) microscopy is rapid, safe, and low cost method that was widely and successfully used in different studies for the identification of various biological samples including bacteria. The new modern infrared (IR) spectrometers with high spectral resolution enable measuring unprecedented biochemical information from cells at the molecular level. Moreover, the development of new bioinformatics analyses combined with IR spectroscopy becomes a powerful technique, which enables the detection of structural changes associated with resistivity. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the potential of the FTIR microscopy in tandem with machine learning algorithms for rapid and reliable identification of bacterial susceptibility to antibiotics in time span of few minutes. The bacterial samples, which were identified at the species level by MALDI-TOF and examined for their susceptibility by the routine assay (micro-diffusion discs), are obtained from the bacteriology laboratories in Soroka University Medical Center (SUMC). These samples were examined by FTIR microscopy and analyzed by advanced statistical methods. Our results, based on 550 E.coli samples, were promising and showed that by using infrared spectroscopic technique together with multivariate analysis, it is possible to classify the tested bacteria into sensitive and resistant with success rate higher than 85% for eight different antibiotics. Based on these preliminary results, it is worthwhile to continue developing the FTIR microscopy technique as a rapid and reliable method for identification antibiotic susceptibility.

Keywords: antibiotics, E. coli, FTIR, multivariate analysis, susceptibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Anindya Ghosh

Abstract:

Structural parameters, yarn to yarn friction, strength of ring, rotor, air-jet and open-end friction spun yarns and the strength of fabrics made from these yarns are measured. The ratio of fabric strip strength per yarn and corresponding single yarn strength is considered as a measure of quantifying the fabric assistance. Mechanism of yarn failure inside the fabric is different as that of single yarn and the former exhibit more fibre rupture. Fabrics made from weaker yarns have higher ratio of strip strength to single yarn strength than that made from stronger yarns due to larger increase in the percentage of rupture fibres in the former. The fabric assistance also depends to some extent on the degree of gripping of the yarns that is influenced by the yarn to yarn friction, extent of yarn flattening and yarn diameter.

Keywords: fabric assistance, fabric strength, yarn diameter, yarn friction, yarn strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Khairi El Battawy, Monika Skalicki

Abstract:

The present investigation has been done on pure Egyptian Arabian mares that reared in private horse studs. Fifty non-pregnant mares were selected and examined to classify them as either being reproductively healthy or subfertile mares including clinical endometritis, early embryonic death, granulosa cell tumor, repeat breeder (post-breeding endometritis), and anoestrus mares. The purpose of the study was to assess oxidative/antioxidant biochemical metabolites, lipogram, trace elements and reproductive hormones throughout reproductive conditions in mares during regular estrous, anestrum, early pregnancy, granulose cell tumor, ovulation failure, and endometritis. Results showed intensification of the free radical-dependent process in the blood of infertile mare, especially mares with endometritis. Ultrasonography as a diagnostic tool diagnosis of endometritis in mares was an important step as it revealed much information concerning infertility problem.

Keywords: endometritis, ovulation, oxidative, mare

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Sajjad Asefi, Hossein Afrakhte

Abstract:

This paper presents the evaluation of reliability indices of an electrical distribution system using Monte Carlo simulation technique accounting Time To Switch (TTS) for each section. In this paper, the distribution system has been assumed by accounting random repair time omission. For simplicity, we have assumed the reliability analysis to be based on exponential law. Each segment has a specified rate of failure (λ) and repair time (r) which will give us the mean up time and mean down time of each section in distribution system. After calculating the modified mean up time (MUT) in years, mean down time (MDT) in hours and unavailability (U) in h/year, TTS have been added to the time which the system is not available, i.e. MDT. In this paper, we have assumed the TTS to be a random variable with Log-Normal distribution.

Keywords: distribution system, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, repair time, time to switch (TTS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 430