Search results for: accident scenarios

Authors: Ibrahim H. Kilic, A. B. Tugrul

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Energy is a fundamental component in economic development and energy consumption is an index of prosperity and the standard of living. The consumption of energy per capita has increased significantly over the last decades, as the standard of living has improved. Turkey’s geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. Among the renewable sources, Turkey has very high wind energy potential. Information such as installation capacity of wind power plants in installation, under construction and license stages in the country are reported in detail. Some suggestions are presented in order to increase the wind power installation capacity of Turkey. Turkey’s economic and social development has led to a massive increase in demand for electricity over the last decades. Since the Turkey has no major oil or gas reserves, it is highly dependent on energy imports and is exposed to energy insecurity in the future. But Turkey does have huge potential for renewable energy utilization. There has been a huge growth in the construction of wind power plants and small hydropower plants in recent years. To meet the growing energy demand, the Turkish Government has adopted incentives for investments in renewable energy production. Wind energy investments evaluated the impact of feed-in tariffs (FIT) based on three scenarios that are optimistic, realistic and pessimistic with APLUS software that is developed for rational evaluation for energy market. Results of the three scenarios are evaluated in the view of electricity market for Turkey.

Keywords: APLUS, energy policy, renewable energy, wind power, Turkey

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Authors: Hatem Abou-Senna, Essam Radwan

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With increasing traffic and limited resources, accommodating left-turning traffic has been a challenge for traffic engineers as they seek balance between intersection capacity and safety; these are two conflicting goals in the operation of a signalized intersection that are mitigated through signal phasing techniques. Hence, to increase the left-turn capacity and reduce the delay at the intersections, the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) moves forward with a vision of optimizing intersection control using innovative intersection designs through the Transportation Systems Management & Operations (TSM&O) program. These alternative designs successfully eliminate the left-turn phase, which otherwise reduces the conventional intersection’s (CI) efficiency considerably, and divide the intersection into smaller networks that would operate in a one-way fashion. This study focused on the Crossover Displaced Left-turn intersections (XDL), also known as Continuous Flow Intersections (CFI). The XDL concept is best suited for intersections with moderate to high overall traffic volumes, especially those with very high or unbalanced left turn volumes. There is little guidance on determining whether partial XDL intersections are adequate to mitigate the overall intersection condition or full XDL is always required. The primary objective of this paper was to evaluate the overall intersection performance in the case of different partial XDL designs compared to a full XDL. The XDL alternative was investigated for 4 different scenarios; partial XDL on the east-west approaches, partial XDL on the north-south approaches, partial XDL on the north and east approaches and full XDL on all 4 approaches. Also, the impact of increasing volume on the intersection performance was considered by modeling the unbalanced volumes with 10% increment resulting in 5 different traffic scenarios. The study intersection, located in Orlando Florida, is experiencing recurring congestion in the PM peak hour and is operating near capacity with volume to a capacity ratio closer to 1.00 due to the presence of two heavy conflicting movements; southbound and westbound. The results showed that a partial EN XDL alternative proved to be effective and compared favorably to a full XDL alternative followed by the partial EW XDL alternative. The analysis also showed that Full, EW and EN XDL alternatives outperformed the NS XDL and the CI alternatives with respect to the throughput, delay and queue lengths. Significant throughput improvements were remarkable at the higher volume level with percent increase in capacity of 25%. The percent reduction in delay for the critical movements in the XDL scenarios compared to the CI scenario ranged from 30-45%. Similarly, queue lengths showed percent reduction in the XDL scenarios ranging from 25-40%. The analysis revealed how partial XDL design can improve the overall intersection performance at various demands, reduce the costs associated with full XDL and proved to outperform the conventional intersection. However, partial XDL serving low volumes or only one of the critical movements while other critical movements are operating near or above capacity do not provide significant benefits when compared to the conventional intersection.

Keywords: continuous flow intersections, crossover displaced left-turn, microscopic traffic simulation, transportation system management and operations, VISSIM simulation model

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Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Every day many people die or get disabled or injured on roads around the world, which necessitates more specific treatments for transportation safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) model is one of the comprehensive road safety models which accounting for many factors that affect road safety in a cost-effective way in low and middle income countries. In iRAP model road safety has been divided into five star ratings from 1 star (the lowest level) to 5 star (the highest level). These star ratings are based on star rating score which is calculated by iRAP methodology depending on road attributes, traffic volumes and operating speeds. The outcome of iRAP methodology are the treatments that can be used to improve road safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) numbers. These countermeasures can be used separately as a single countermeasure or mix as multiple countermeasures for a location. There is general agreement that the adequacy of a countermeasure is liable to consistent losses when it is utilized as a part of mix with different countermeasures. That is, accident diminishment appraisals of individual countermeasures cannot be easily added together. The iRAP model philosophy makes utilization of a multiple countermeasure adjustment factors to predict diminishments in the effectiveness of road safety countermeasures when more than one countermeasure is chosen. A multiple countermeasure correction factors are figured for every 100-meter segment and for every accident type. However, restrictions of this methodology incorporate a presumable over-estimation in the predicted crash reduction. This study aims to adjust this correction factor by developing new models to calculate the effect of using multiple countermeasures on the number of fatalities for a location or an entire road. Regression models have been used to establish relationships between crash frequencies and the factors that affect their rates. Multiple linear regression, negative binomial regression, and Poisson regression techniques were used to develop models that can address the effectiveness of using multiple countermeasures. Analyses are conducted using The R Project for Statistical Computing showed that a model developed by negative binomial regression technique could give more reliable results of the predicted number of fatalities after the implementation of road safety multiple countermeasures than the results from iRAP model. The results also showed that the negative binomial regression approach gives more precise results in comparison with multiple linear and Poisson regression techniques because of the overdispersion and standard error issues.

Keywords: international road assessment program, negative binomial, road multiple countermeasures, road safety

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Authors: Nur Azha Putra Abdul Azim, Denise Cheong, S. Nivedita

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Currently, there are no nuclear power reactors among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states (AMS) but there are seven operational nuclear research reactors, and Indonesia is about to construct the region’s first experimental power reactor by the end of the decade. If successful, the experimental power reactor will lay the foundation for the country’s and region’s first nuclear power plant. Despite projecting confidence during the period of nuclear power renaissance in the region in the last decade, none of the AMS has committed to a political decision on the use of nuclear energy and this is largely due to the Fukushima nuclear power accident in 2011. Of the ten AMS, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia have demonstrated the most progress in developing nuclear energy based on the nuclear power infrastructure development assessments made by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Of these three states, Vietnam came closest to building its first nuclear power plant but decided to delay construction further due to safety and security concerns. Meanwhile, Vietnam along with Indonesia and Malaysia continue with their nuclear power infrastructure development and the remaining SEA states, with the exception of Brunei and Singapore, continue to build their expertise and capacity for nuclear power energy. At the current rate of progress, Indonesia is expected to make a national decision on the use of nuclear power by 2023 while Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand have included the use of nuclear power in their mid to long-term power development plans. Vietnam remains open to nuclear power but has not placed a timeline. The medium to short-term power development projection in the region suggests that the use of nuclear energy in the region is a matter of 'when' rather than 'if'. In lieu of the prospects for nuclear energy in Southeast Asia (SEA), this presentation will review the literature on ASEAN radiological emergency and preparedness response (EPR) plans and examine ASEAN’s disaster management and emergency framework. Through a combination of institutional mapping and stakeholder analysis methods, which we examine in the context of the international EPR, and nuclear safety and security regimes, we will identify the issues and challenges in developing a regional radiological EPR framework in the SEA. We will conclude with the observation that ASEAN faces serious structural, institutional and governance challenges due to the AMS inherent political structures and history of interstate conflicts, and propose that ASEAN should either enlarge the existing scope of its disaster management and response framework or that its radiological EPR framework should exist as a separate entity.

Keywords: nuclear power, nuclear accident, ASEAN, Southeast Asia

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Authors: Reza Hedayati, Meysam Jahanbakhshi

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Elastic energy absorbers which consist of a ring-liked plate and springs can be a good choice for increasing the impact duration during an accident. In the current project, an energy absorber system is optimized using four optimizing methods Kuhn-Tucker, Sequential Linear Programming (SLP), Concurrent Subspace Design (CSD), and Pshenichny-Lim-Belegundu-Arora (PLBA). Time solution, convergence, Programming Length and accuracy of the results were considered to find the best solution algorithm. Results showed the superiority of PLBA over the other algorithms.

Keywords: Concurrent Subspace Design (CSD), Kuhn-Tucker, Pshenichny-Lim-Belegundu-Arora (PLBA), Sequential Linear Programming (SLP)

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Authors: Samra Naz, Aneeqa Ahmed, Qurat-ul-ain Mubarak, Irum Nausheen

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Driver safety systems protect driver from accidents by sensing signs of drowsiness. The paper proposes a technique which can detect the signs of drowsiness and make corresponding decisions to make the driver alert. This paper presents a technique in which the driver will be continuously monitored by a camera and his eyes, head and mouth movements will be observed. If the drowsiness signs are detected on the basis of these three movements under the predefined criteria, driver will be declared as sleepy and he will get alert with the help of alarms. Three robust techniques of drowsiness detection are combined together to make a robust system that can prevent form accident.

Keywords: drowsiness, eye closure, fatigue detection, yawn detection

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Authors: N. Anusree, P. Sughosh, G. L. Sivakumar Babu

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Municipalities throughout the world are marred with serious issues related to the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) collection, treatment, and safe disposal. While the Waste Management sector contributes around 3-9 % of the overall anthropogenic methane emission, measures towards mitigating these emissions are rarely given attention in developing countries. In the case of Bangalore, India, around 5680 tons of MSW is generated in a day, and its collection and treatment efficiency are around 90-95 % and 26.4 %, respectively. About 33.4 % of the waste collected is directly landfilled without any treatment, further aggravating the situation. The potential of reducing the emissions emanating from the MSW of Bangalore city without any severe consequences on the current MSW management practices is evaluated in this study. Three emission scenarios consisting of the baseline condition (current practices – Case-1), the application of biocovers for methane oxidation in the dumpsites (case-2), and the diversion of Organic Fraction of MSW (OFMSW) along with the application of biocovers (case-3) are evaluated and compared with each other. The emissions are calculated based on the aerobic and anaerobic stochiometric relations for the three scenarios. Laboratory scale column studies are carried out to determine the methane oxidation potential of three different biocover material (digested MBT (mechanically biologically treated) waste, Fresh MBT waste, and charcoal amended with fresh MBT waste). The results shown that around 40 % and 83 % reduction in carbon emissions can be achieved in case 3 and 2 in comparison to the baseline condition. The study clearly shows that with minor changes in the waste management practices, substantial reductions in the carbon emissions can be attained in Bangalore City.

Keywords: MSW, biocover, composting, carbon emission

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Authors: Maryam Amiri, Ali Rajabzade, Gholam Reza Goudarzi, Reza Heidari

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Growth of technology and environmental changes are so fast and therefore, companies and industries have much tendency to do activities of R&D for active participation in the market and achievement to a competitive advantages. Aviation industry and its subdivisions have high level technology and play a special role in economic and social development of countries. So, in the aviation industry for getting new technologies and competing with other countries aviation industry, there is a requirement for capability in R&D. Considering of appropriate R&D strategy is supportive that day technologies of the world can be achieved. Biofuel technology is one of the newest technologies that has allocated discussion of the world in aviation industry to itself. The purpose of this research has been formulation of R&D strategy of biofuel technology in aviation industry of Iran. After reviewing of the theoretical foundations of the methods and R&D strategies, finally we classified R&D strategies in four main categories as follows: internal R&D, collaboration R&D, out sourcing R&D and in-house R&D. After a review of R&D strategies, a model for formulation of R&D strategy with the aim of developing biofuel technology in aviation industry in Iran was offered. With regard to the requirements and aracteristics of industry and technology in the model, we presented an integrated approach to R&D. Based on the techniques of decision making and analyzing of structured expert opinion, 4 R&D strategies for different scenarios and with the aim of developing biofuel technology in aviation industry in Iran were recommended. In this research, based on the common features of the implementation process of R&D, a logical classification of these methods are presented as R&D strategies. Then, R&D strategies and their characteristics was developed according to the experts. In the end, we introduced a model to consider the role of aviation industry and biofuel technology in R&D strategies. And lastly, for conditions and various scenarios of the aviation industry, we have formulated a specific R&D strategy.

Keywords: aviation industry, biofuel technology, R&D, R&D strategy

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Authors: Christos Theoharatos, Dimitris Tsourounis, Spiros Oikonomou, Andreas Makedonas

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This paper focuses on the problem of visually inspecting and recognizing the road conditions in front of moving vehicles, targeting automotive scenarios. The goal of road inspection is to identify whether the road is slippery or not, as well as to detect possible anomalies on the road surface like potholes or body bumps/humps. Our work is based on an artificial intelligence methodology for real-time monitoring of road conditions in autonomous driving scenarios, using state-of-the-art deep convolutional neural network (CNN) techniques. Initially, the road and ego lane are segmented within the field of view of the camera that is integrated into the front part of the vehicle. A novel classification CNN is utilized to identify among plain and slippery road textures (e.g., wet, snow, etc.). Simultaneously, a robust detection CNN identifies severe surface anomalies within the ego lane, such as potholes and speed bumps/humps, within a distance of 5 to 25 meters. The overall methodology is illustrated under the scope of an integrated application (or system), which can be integrated into complete Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) systems that provide a full range of functionalities. The outcome of the proposed techniques present state-of-the-art detection and classification results and real-time performance running on AI accelerator devices like Intel’s Myriad 2/X Vision Processing Unit (VPU).

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural networks, road condition classification, embedded systems

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Authors: Sabita Subedi, Bhojan Dhakal, Shankar Raj Pant, Naba Raj Devkota

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An assessment was made about the available feed resources, its utilization pattern, specifically, roughage and concentrate, produced from the Manaslu Conservation Area (MCA) of Nepal to formulate the appropriate strategies in satisfying the annual dietary requirements of the livestock covering its present production and management scenarios. A comparative study was done by employing a purposively conducted survey to deduct the distribution of forage sources in the area. Findings revealed that natural vegetation, seasonally available crop residues, and dried grasses were major feed resources, whereas their contribution to the total supply varied significantly (p < 0.01). The amount of feed obtained from various sources was calculated by standard conversion and using primary household data. Findings revealed that farmers practice significantly higher (p < 0.01) number of grazing days and hours per day for large ruminants such as Yak and Chauries as compared to small ruminants such as goats and sheep. The findings also indicated seasonal variations of feed supply, whereas January to March is the period of short supply (p < 0.01). It was relatively in good supply from June to September though average roughage and crude protein supplement for the animals was far below than optimum requirements. These scenarios suggest the need for immediate attention to improve the range productivity in the MCA as the deteriorating situations of the rangelands may raise questions on the sustainability of livestock herders.

Keywords: altitude, carrying capacity, dietary requirement, feed resources, rangeland, ruminant

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Authors: Mihail Nagea, Olivera Lupescu, Elena Taina Avramescu, Cristina Patru

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Classical education of orthopedic surgeons involves lectures, self study, workshops and cadaver dissections, and sometimes supervised practical training within surgery, which quite seldom gives the young surgeons the feeling of being unable to apply what they have learned especially in surgical practice. The purpose of this paper is to present a different approach from the classical one, which enhances the practical skills of the orthopedic trainees and prepare them for future practice. The paper presents the content of the research project 2015-1-RO01-KA202-015230, ERASMUS+ VET ‘Collaborative learning for enhancing practical skills for patient-focused interventions in gait rehabilitation after orthopedic surgery’ which, using e learning as a basic tool , delivers to the trainees not only courses, but especially practical information through videos and case scenarios including gait analysis in order to build patient focused therapeutic plans, adapted to the characteristics of each patient. The outcome of this project is to enhance the practical skills in orthopedic surgery and the results are evaluated following the answers to the questionnaires, but especially the reactions within the case scenarios. The participants will thus follow the idea that any mistake within solving the cases might represent a failure of treating a real patient. This modern approach, besides using interactivity to evaluate the theoretical and practical knowledge of the trainee, increases the sense of responsibility, as well as the ability to react properly in real cases.

Keywords: interdisciplinary approach, gait analysis, orthopedic surgery, vocational training

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: B. E. Tarazona-Romero, J. G. Ascanio-Villabona, O. Lengerke-Perez, A. D. Rincon-Quintero, C. L. Sandoval-Rodriguez

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Desalination offers solutions for the shortage of water in the world, however, the process of eliminating salts generates a by-product known as brine, generally eliminated in the environment through techniques that mitigate its impact. Brine treatment techniques are vital to developing an environmentally sustainable desalination process. Consequently, this document evaluates three different geometric configurations of solar stills as an alternative for brine treatment to be integrated into a low-scale desalination process. The geometric scenarios to be studied were selected because they have characteristics that adapt to the concept of appropriate technology; low cost, intensive labor and material resources for local manufacturing, modularity, and simplicity in construction. Additionally, the conceptual design of the collectors was carried out, and the ray tracing methodology was applied through the open access software SolTrace and Tonatiuh. The simulation process used 600.00 rays and modified two input parameters; direct normal radiation (DNI) and reflectance. In summary, for the scenarios evaluated, the ladder-type distiller presented higher efficiency values compared to the pyramid-type and single-slope collectors. Finally, the efficiency of the collectors studied was directly related to their geometry, that is, large geometries allow them to receive a greater number of solar rays in various paths, affecting the efficiency of the device.

Keywords: appropriate technology, brine treatment techniques, desalination, monte carlo ray tracing

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Authors: Tianyou Wang

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Students' own intrinsic motivation is the main source of energy for learning activities, and their self-efficacy becomes a key factor affecting the learning effect. In today's increasingly common situation of online vocal music teaching, virtualized teaching scenarios have brought a considerable impact on students' personal efficacy. Since personal efficacy is the result of the interaction between environmental factors and subject characteristics, an empirical study was conducted to investigate the changes in students' self-efficacy, influencing factors, and characteristics in online vocal teaching scenarios based on the three dimensions of teachers, students, and technology. One hundred valid questionnaires were studied through a quantitative survey. The results showed that students' personal efficacy was significantly lower in online learning environments compared to offline vocal teaching and showed significant differences due to factors such as gender and class type; students' self-efficacy in online vocal teaching was significantly affected by factors such as technological environment, teaching style, and information technology ability. Based on the results of the study, it is recommended to pay attention to inquiry and practice in the teaching design, use singing projects as the teaching organization, grasp the learning process with the orientation of problem-solving, push the applicable vocal music teaching resources in time, lead students to explore and refine the problems and push students to learn independently according to the goals and plans.

Keywords: vocal pedagogy, self-efficacy, online learning, intrinsic motivation, information technology

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Authors: Vincenzo Russo, Rosella Giacometti

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The paper aims to assess the insurance industry's resilience under Solvency II against adverse scenarios. Starting from the economic balance sheet available under Solvency II for insurance and reinsurance undertakings, we assume that assets and liabilities follow a bivariate geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Then, using the results available under Margrabe's formula, we establish an analytical solution to calibrate the volatility of the asset-liability ratio. In such a way, we can estimate the probability of default and the probability of breaching the undertaking's Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). Furthermore, since estimating the volatility of the Solvency Ratio became crucial for insurers in light of the financial crises featured in the last decades, we introduce a novel measure that we call Resiliency Ratio. The Resiliency Ratio can be used, in addition to the Solvency Ratio, to evaluate the insurance industry's resilience in case of adverse scenarios. Finally, we introduce a simplified stress test tool to evaluate the economic balance sheet under stressed conditions. The model we propose is featured by analytical tractability and fast calibration procedure where only the disclosed data available under the Solvency II public reporting are needed for the calibration. Using the data published regularly by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) in an aggregated form by country, an empirical analysis has been performed to calibrate the model and provide the related results at the country level.

Keywords: Solvency II, solvency ratio, volatility of the asset-liability ratio, probability of default, probability to breach the SCR, resilience ratio, stress test

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Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

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Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: climate change, energy, IPCC, solar radiation

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Authors: Gulhan Sen

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Disasters could result in many deaths and injuries. In these difficult times, accessible resources are limited, demand and supply balance is distorted, and there is a need to make urgent interventions. Disproportionateness between accessible resources and intervention capacity makes triage a necessity in every stage of disaster response. Healthcare professionals, who are in charge of triage, have to evaluate swiftly and make ethical decisions about which patients need priority and urgent intervention given the limited available resources. For such critical times in disaster triage, 'doing the greatest good for the greatest number of casualties' is adopted as a code of practice. But there is no guide for healthcare professionals about ethical decision-making during disasters, and this study is expected to use as a source in the preparation of the guide. This study aimed to examine whether the qualities healthcare professionals in Izmir related to disaster triage were adequate and whether these qualities influence their capacity to make ethical decisions. The researcher used a survey developed for data collection. The survey included two parts. In part one, 14 questions solicited information about socio-demographic characteristics and knowledge levels of the respondents on ethical principles of disaster triage and allocation of scarce resources. Part two included four disaster scenarios adopted from existing literature and respondents were asked to make ethical decisions in triage based on the provided scenarios. The survey was completed by 215 healthcare professional working in Emergency-Medical Stations, National Medical Rescue Teams and Search-Rescue-Health Teams in Izmir. The data was analyzed with SPSS software. Chi-Square Test, Mann-Whitney U Test, Kruskal-Wallis Test and Linear Regression Analysis were utilized. According to results, it was determined that 51.2% of the participants had inadequate knowledge level of ethical principles of disaster triage and allocation of scarce resources. It was also found that participants did not tend to make ethical decisions on four disaster scenarios which included ethical dilemmas. They stayed in ethical dilemmas that perform cardio-pulmonary resuscitation, manage limited resources and make decisions to die. Results also showed that participants who had more experience in disaster triage teams, were more likely to make ethical decisions on disaster triage than those with little or no experience in disaster triage teams(p < 0.01). Moreover, as their knowledge level of ethical principles of disaster triage and allocation of scarce resources increased, their tendency to make ethical decisions also increased(p < 0.001). In conclusion, having inadequate knowledge level of ethical principles and being inexperienced affect their ethical decision-making during disasters. So results of this study suggest that more training on disaster triage should be provided on the areas of the pre-impact phase of disaster. In addition, ethical dimension of disaster triage should be included in the syllabi of the ethics classes in the vocational training for healthcare professionals. Drill, simulations, and board exercises can be used to improve ethical decision making abilities of healthcare professionals. Disaster scenarios where ethical dilemmas are faced should be prepared for such applied training programs.

Keywords: disaster triage, medical ethics, ethical principles of disaster triage, ethical decision-making

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Authors: Jeremy Faludi, Zhongyin Hu, Shahd Alrashed, Christopher Braunholz, Suneesh Kaul, Leulekal Kassaye

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Environmental impacts of six 3D printers using various materials were compared to determine if material choice drove sustainability, or if other factors such as machine type, machine size, or machine utilization dominate. Cradle-to-grave life-cycle assessments were performed, comparing a commercial-scale FDM machine printing in ABS plastic, a desktop FDM machine printing in ABS, a desktop FDM machine printing in PET and PLA plastics, a polyjet machine printing in its proprietary polymer, an SLA machine printing in its polymer, and an inkjet machine hacked to print in salt and dextrose. All scenarios were scored using ReCiPe Endpoint H methodology to combine multiple impact categories, comparing environmental impacts per part made for several scenarios per machine. Results showed that most printers’ ecological impacts were dominated by electricity use, not materials, and the changes in electricity use due to different plastics was not significant compared to variation from one machine to another. Variation in machine idle time determined impacts per part most strongly. However, material impacts were quite important for the inkjet printer hacked to print in salt: In its optimal scenario, it had up to 1/38th the impacts coreper part as the worst-performing machine in the same scenario. If salt parts were infused with epoxy to make them more physically robust, then much of this advantage disappeared, and material impacts actually dominated or equaled electricity use. Future studies should also measure DMLS and SLS processes / materials.

Keywords: 3D printing, additive manufacturing, sustainability, life-cycle assessment, design for environment

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Authors: Da LI, Peng Xu

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Recent extreme weather events, such as the 2021 European floods and North American heatwaves, have exposed the vulnerability of energy systems to both extreme demand scenarios and potential physical damage. Current integrated energy system designs often overlook performance under these challenging conditions. This research, focusing on a regional integrated energy system in Ningbo, China, proposes a distinct design method to optimize system reliability during extreme events. A multi-scenario model was developed, encompassing various extreme load conditions and potential system damages caused by severe weather. Based on this model, a comprehensive reliability improvement scheme was designed, incorporating a gradient approach to address different levels of disaster severity through the integration of advanced technologies like distributed energy storage. The scheme's effectiveness was validated through Monte Carlo simulations. Results demonstrate significant enhancements in energy supply reliability and peak load reduction capability under extreme scenarios. The findings provide several insights for improving energy system adaptability in the face of climate-induced challenges, offering valuable references for building reliable energy infrastructure capable of withstanding both extreme demands and physical threats across a spectrum of disaster intensities.

Keywords: extreme weather events, integrated energy systems, reliability improvement, climate change adaptation

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Authors: Leena Korpinen, Rauno Pääkkönen, Fabriziomaria Gobba

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The aim of this paper is to investigate accidents and close call situations connected to the use of mobile phones in working-age people ≥ 50 years old. The paper is part of a cross-sectional study that was carried out in 2002 in 15,000 working-age Finns. The study showed that mobile-phone-related accidents and close call situations, both at work and at leisure, are more common in people under 50 years that in people ≥ 50 years old. However, people under 50 use mobile phones more than those aged ≥ 50.

Keywords: mobile phone, age, accident, close call situation

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Authors: Pappu Kumar, Ajai Singh, Anshuman Singh

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There are different water user sectors such as rural, urban, mining, subsistence and commercial irrigated agriculture, commercial forestry, industry, power generation which are present in the catchment in Subarnarekha River Basin and Ranchi city. There is an inequity issue in the access to water. The development of the rural area, construction of new power generation plants, along with the population growth, the requirement of unmet water demand and the consideration of environmental flows, the revitalization of small-scale irrigation schemes is going to increase the water demands in almost all the water-stressed catchment. The WEAP Model was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to enable evaluation of planning and management issues associated with water resources development. The WEAP model can be used for both urban and rural areas and can address a wide range of issues including sectoral demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocation priorities, river flow simulation, reservoir operation, ecosystem requirements and project cost-benefit analyses. This model is a tool for integrated water resource management and planning like, forecasting water demand, supply, inflows, outflows, water use, reuse, water quality, priority areas and Hydropower generation, In the present study, efforts have been made to access the utility of the WEAP model for water supply and demand analysis for Ranchi city. A detailed works have been carried out and it was tried to ascertain that the WEAP model used for generating different scenario of water requirement, which could help for the future planning of water. The water supplied to Ranchi city was mostly contributed by our study river, Hatiya reservoir and ground water. Data was collected from various agencies like PHE Ranchi, census data of 2011, Doranda reservoir and meteorology department etc. This collected and generated data was given as input to the WEAP model. The model generated the trends for discharge of our study river up to next 2050 and same time also generated scenarios calculating our demand and supplies for feature. The results generated from the model outputs predicting the water require 12 million litter. The results will help in drafting policies for future regarding water supplies and demands under changing climatic scenarios.

Keywords: WEAP model, water demand analysis, Ranchi, scenarios

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Authors: Abdallah M. Fayed

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The study area is located in south Darb El Arbaieen, western desert of Egypt. It occupies the area between latitudes 22° 00/ and 22° 30/ North and Longitudes 29° 30/ and 30° 00/ East, from southern border of Egypt to the area north Bir Kuraiym and from the area East of East Owienat to the area west Tushka district, its area about 2750 Km2. The famous features; southern part of Darb El Arbaieen road, G Baraqat El Scab El Qarra, Bir Dibis, Bir El Shab and Bir Kuraiym, Interpretation of soil stratification shows layers that are related to Quaternary and Upper-Lower Cretaceous eras. It is dissected by a series of NE-SW striking faults. The regional groundwater flow direction is in SW-NE direction with a hydraulic gradient is 1m / 2km. Mathematical model program has been applied for evaluation of groundwater potentials in the main Aquifer –Nubian Sandstone- in the area of study and Remote sensing technique is considered powerful, accurate and saving time in this respect. These techniques are widely used for illustrating and analysis different phenomenon such as the new development in the desert (land reclamation), residential development (new communities), urbanization, etc. The major issues concerning water development objective of this work is to determine the new development areas in western desert of Egypt during the period from 2003 to 2015 using remote sensing technique, the impacts of the present and future development have been evaluated by using the two-dimensional numerical groundwater flow Simulation Package (visual modflow 4.2). The package was used to construct and calibrate a numerical model that can be used to simulate the response of the aquifer in the study area under implementing different management alternatives in the form of changes in piezometric levels and salinity. Total period of simulation is 100 years. After steady state calibration, two different scenarios are simulated for groundwater development. 21 production wells are installed at the study area and used in the model, with the total discharge for the two scenarios were 105000 m3/d, 210000 m3/d. The drawdown was 11.8 m and 23.7 m for the two scenarios in the end of 100 year. Contour maps for water heads and drawdown and hydrographs for piezometric head are represented. The drawdown was less than the half of the saturated thickness (the safe yield case).

Keywords: remote sensing, management of aquifer systems, simulation modeling, western desert, South Darb El Arbaieen

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Rafael Martins Manzano Silva, Jean-Francois Tremong

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Electrification of railway lines allows to increase speed, power, capacity and energetic efficiency of rolling stocks. However, this process of electrification is complex and costly. An electrification project is not just about design of catenary. It also includes installation of structures around electrification, as substation installation, electrical isolation, signalling, telecommunication and civil engineering structures. France has more than 30,000 km of railways, whose only 53% are electrified. The others 47% of railways use diesel locomotive and represent only 10% of the circulation (tons.km). For this reason, a new type of electrification, less expensive than the usual, is requested to enable the modernization of these railways. One solution could be the use of hybrids trains. This technology opens up new opportunities for less expensive infrastructure development such as the partial electrification of railway lines. In a partially electrified railway, the power supply of theses hybrid trains could be made either by the catenary or by the on-board energy storage system (ESS). Thus, the on-board ESS would feed the energetic needs of the train along the non-electrified zones while in electrified zones, the catenary would feed the train and recharge the on-board ESS. This paper’s objective deals with the technical and economic potential identification of partial electrification of railway lines. This study provides different scenarios of electrification by replacing the most expensive places to electrify using on-board ESS. The target is to reduce the cost of new electrification projects, i.e. reduce the cost of electrification infrastructures while not increasing the cost of rolling stocks. In this study, scenarios are constructed in function of the electrification’s cost of each structure. The electrification’s cost varies considerably because of the installation of catenary support in tunnels, bridges and viaducts is much more expensive than in others zones of the railway. These scenarios will be used to describe the power supply system and to choose between the catenary and the on-board energy storage depending on the position of the train on the railway. To identify the influence of each partial electrification scenario in the sizing of the on-board ESS, a model of the railway line and of the rolling stock is developed for a real case. This real case concerns a railway line located in the south of France. The energy consumption and the power demanded at each point of the line for each power supply (catenary or on-board ESS) are provided at the end of the simulation. Finally, the cost of a partial electrification is obtained by adding the civil engineering costs of the zones to be electrified plus the cost of the on-board ESS. The study of the technical and economic potential ends with the identification of the most economically interesting scenario of electrification.

Keywords: electrification, hybrid, railway, storage

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Authors: N. Gayathri Devi, K. Batri

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The advent of technology has increased the traffic hazards and the road accidents take place. Collision detection system in automobile aims at reducing or mitigating the severity of an accident. This project aims at avoiding Vehicle head on collision by means of collision detection algorithm. This collision detection algorithm predicts the collision and the avoidance or minimization have to be done within few seconds on confirmation. Under critical situation collision minimization is made possible by turning the vehicle to the desired turn radius so that collision impact can be reduced. In order to avoid the collision completely, the turning of the vehicle should be achieved at reduced speed in order to maintain the stability.

Keywords: collision avoidance system, time to collision, time to turn, turn radius

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Authors: William Li

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Lane-change path planning is a crucial and yet complex task in autonomous driving. The traditional path planning approach based on a system of carefully-crafted rules to cover various driving scenarios becomes unwieldy as more and more rules are added to deal with exceptions and corner cases. This paper proposes to divide the entire path planning to two stages. In the first stage the ego vehicle travels longitudinally in the source lane to reach a safe state. In the second stage the ego vehicle makes lateral lane-change maneuver to the target lane. The paper derives the safe state conditions based on lateral lane-change maneuver calculation to ensure collision free in the second stage. To determine the acceleration sequence that minimizes the time to reach a safe state in the first stage, the paper proposes three schemes, namely, kinetic model based optimization, deep reinforcement learning, and 5G vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications. The paper investigates these schemes via simulation. The model-based optimization is sensitive to the model assumptions. The deep reinforcement learning is more flexible in handling scenarios beyond the model assumed by the optimization. The 5G V2V eliminates uncertainty in predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles by sharing driving intents and enabling cooperative driving.

Keywords: lane change, path planning, autonomous driving, deep reinforcement learning, 5G, V2V communications, connected vehicles

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Authors: Bahram Khan, Anderson Rocha Ramos, Rui R. Paulo, Fernando J. Velez

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With the growing demand for a new blend of applications, the users dependency on the internet is increasing day by day. Mobile internet users are giving more attention to their own experiences, especially in terms of communication reliability, high data rates and service stability on move. This increase in the demand is causing saturation of existing radio frequency bands. To address these challenges, researchers are investigating the best approaches, Carrier Aggregation (CA) is one of the newest innovations, which seems to fulfill the demands of the future spectrum, also CA is one the most important feature for Long Term Evolution - Advanced (LTE-Advanced). For this purpose to get the upcoming International Mobile Telecommunication Advanced (IMT-Advanced) mobile requirements (1 Gb/s peak data rate), the CA scheme is presented by 3GPP, which would sustain a high data rate using widespread frequency bandwidth up to 100 MHz. Technical issues such as aggregation structure, its implementations, deployment scenarios, control signal techniques, and challenges for CA technique in LTE-Advanced, with consideration of backward compatibility, are highlighted in this paper. Also, performance evaluation in macro-cellular scenarios through a simulation approach is presented, which shows the benefits of applying CA, low-complexity multi-band schedulers in service quality, system capacity enhancement and concluded that enhanced multi-band scheduler is less complex than the general multi-band scheduler, which performs better for a cell radius longer than 1800 m (and a PLR threshold of 2%).

Keywords: component carrier, carrier aggregation, LTE-advanced, scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Adriana Martínez-Arias, John Josephraj Selvaraj, Luis Octavio González-Salcedo

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In the Colombian Pacific, Dorado fish (Coryphaena hippurus L.) fisheries is of great commercial interest. However, its habitat and fisheries may be affected by climatic change especially by the actual increase in sea surface temperature. Hence, it is of interest to study the dynamics of these species fishing zones. In this study, we developed Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models to predict Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) as an indicator of species abundance. The model was based on four oceanographic variables (Chlorophyll a, Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly and Bathymetry) derived from satellite data. CPUE datasets for model training and cross-validation were obtained from logbooks of commercial fishing vessel. Sea surface Temperature for Colombian Pacific were projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CPUE maps were created. Our results indicated that an increase in sea surface temperature reduces the potential fishing zones of this species in the Colombian Pacific. We conclude that ANN is a reliable tool for simulation of climate change effects on the potential fishing zones. This research opens a future agenda for other species that have been affected by climate change.

Keywords: climatic change, artificial neural networks, dorado fish, CPUE

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Authors: Emna Bahri Hammami, Zammouri Mounira, Tarhouni Jamila

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The Nadhour Saouaf Sisseb El Alem (NSSA) system comprises some of the most intensively exploited aquifers in central Tunisia. Since the 1970s, the growth in economic productivity linked to intensive agriculture in this semiarid region has been sustained by increasing pumping rates of the system’s groundwater. Exploitation of these aquifers has increased rapidly, ultimately causing their depletion. With the aim to better understand the behavior of the aquifer system and to predict its evolution, the paper presents a finite difference model of the groundwater flow and solute transport. The model is based on the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) and was calibrated using data from 1970 to 2010. Groundwater levels observed in 1970 were used for the steady-state calibration. Groundwater levels observed from 1971 to 2010 served to calibrate the transient state. The impact of pumping discharge on the evolution of groundwater levels was studied through three hypothetical pumping scenarios. The first two scenarios replicated the approximate drawdown in the aquifer heads (about 17 m in scenario 1 and 23 m in scenario 2 in the center of NSSA) following an increase in pumping rates by 30% and 50% from their current values, respectively. In addition, pumping was stopped in the third scenario, which could increase groundwater reserves by about 7 Mm3/year. NSSA groundwater reserves could be improved considerably if the pumping rules were taken seriously.

Keywords: pumping, depletion, groundwater modeling system GMS, Nadhour Saouaf

Procedia PDF Downloads 222