Search results for: damage prediction

Authors: Bingying Liu, Dandong Ge, Xinlan Zhang, Haoyang Liang

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Over the past two years, a new generation of No-Pile Bike sharing, represented by the Ofo, Mobike and HelloBike, has sprung up in various cities in China, and spread rapidly in countries such as Britain, Japan, the United States and Singapore. As a new green public transportation mode, bike sharing can bring a series of benefits to urban space. At first, this paper analyzes the specific impact of bike sharing on urban space in China. Based on the market research and data analyzing, it is found that bike sharing can improve the quality of urban space in three aspects: expanding the radius of public transportation service, filling service blind spots, alleviating urban traffic congestion, and enhancing the vitality of urban space. On the other hand, due to the immature market and the imperfect system, bike sharing has gradually revealed some difficulties, such as parking chaos, malicious damage, safety problems, imbalance between supply and demand, and so on. Then the paper investigates the characteristics of shared bikes, business model, operating mechanism on Chinese market currently. Finally, in order to make bike sharing serve urban construction better, this paper puts forward some specific countermeasures from four aspects. In terms of market operations, it is necessary to establish a public-private partnership model and set up a unified bike-sharing integrated management platform. From technical methods level, the paper proposes to develop an intelligent parking system for regulating parking. From policy formulation level, establishing a bike-sharing assessment mechanism would strengthen supervision. As to urban planning, sharing data and redesigning slow roadway is beneficial for transportation and spatial planning.

Keywords: bike sharing, impact analysis, improvement strategy, urban space

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Authors: Arzu K. Kamberli, Tolga Ulusoy

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Technological developments and the resulting global communication have made the 21st century when large capitals are moved from one end to the other via a button. As a result, the flow of capital inflows has accelerated, and capital inflow has brought with it crisis-related infectiousness. Considering the irrational human behavior, the financial crisis in the world under the influence of the whole world has turned into the basic problem of the countries and increased the interest of the researchers in the reasons of the crisis and the period in which they lived. Therefore, the complex nature of the financial crises and its linearly unexplained structure have also been included in the new discipline, econophysics. As it is known, although financial crises have prediction mechanisms, there is no definite information. In this context, in this study, using the concept of electric field from the electrostatic part of physics, an early econophysical approach for global financial crises was studied. The aim is to define a model that can take place before the financial crises, identify financial fragility at an earlier stage and help public and private sector members, policy makers and economists with an econophysical approach. 2001 Turkey crisis has been assessed with data from Turkish Central Bank which is covered between 1992 to 2007, and for 2001 Argentina crisis, data was taken from IMF and the Central Bank of Argentina from 1997 to 2007. As an econophysical method, an analogy is used between the Gauss's law used in the calculation of the electric field and the forecasting of the financial crisis. The concept of Φ (Financial Flux) has been adopted for the pre-warning of the crisis by taking advantage of this analogy, which is based on currency movements and money mobility. For the first time used in this study Φ (Financial Flux) calculations obtained by the formula were analyzed by Matlab software, and in this context, in 2001 Turkey and Argentina Crisis for Φ (Financial Flux) crisis of values has been confirmed to give pre-warning.

Keywords: econophysics, financial crisis, Gauss's Law, physics

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Ozoemelam Ikechukwu Lazarus, Nizamuddin B. Zainuddin, Abdul Kafi

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Numerous studies have been carried out on Green Logistics Management Practices (GLMPs) across the globe. The study on the practices and performance of green chain practices in Africa in particular has not gained enough scholarly attention. Again, the majority of supply chain sustainability research being conducted focus on environmental sustainability. Logistics has been a major cause of supply chain resource waste and environmental damage. Many sectors of the economy that engage in logistical operations significantly rely on vehicles, which emit pollutants into the environment. Due to urbanization and industrialization, the logistical operations of manufacturing companies represent a serious hazard to the society and human life, making the sector one of the fastest expanding in the world today. Logistics companies are faced with numerous difficulties when attempting to implement logistics practices along their supply chains. In Nigeria, manufacturing companies aspire to implement reverse logistics in response to stakeholders’ requirements to reduce negative environmental consequences. However, implementing this is impeded by a criteria framework, and necessitates the careful analysis of how such criteria interact with each other in the presence of uncertainty. This study integrates most of the green logistics management practices (GLMPs) into the Nigerian firms to improve generalizability, and credibility. It examines the effect of Green Logistics Management Practices on environmental performance, social performance, market performance, and financial performance in the logistics industries. It seeks to identify the critical success factors in order to develop a model that incorporates different factors from the perspectives of the technology, organization, human and environment to inform the adoption and use of technologies for logistics supply chain social sustainability in Nigeria. It uses exploratory research approach to collect and analyse the data.

Keywords: logistics, managemernt, suatainability, environment, operations

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Authors: Nyimas Annissa Mutiara Andini

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Every year, children develop hydrocephalus during the first year of life. If it is not treated, hydrocephalus can lead to brain damage, a loss in mental and physical abilities, and even death. To be treated, first, we have to do a proper diagnosis using some examinations especially to detect hydrocephalus earlier. One of the examination that could be done is using a head circumference measurement. Increased head circumference is a first and main sign of hydrocephalus, especially in infant (0-1 year age). Head circumference is a measurement of a child's head largest area. In this measurement, we want to get the distance from above the eyebrows and ears and around the back of the head using a measurement tape. If the head circumference of an infant is larger than normal, this infant might potentially suffer hydrocephalus. If early diagnosis and timely treatment of hydrocephalus could be done most children can recover successfully. There are some problems with early detection of hydrocephalus using regular tape for head circumference measurement. One of the problem is the infant’s comfort. We need to make the infant feel comfort along the head circumference measurement to get a proper result of the examination. For that, we can use a helpful stuff, like a hat. This paper is aimed to describe the possibility of using a head circumference measuring instrument for early detection of hydrocephalus in an infant with a mike hat, coloured-tape-in-hat. In the first life, infants’ head size is about 35 centimeters. First three months after that infants will gain 2 centimeters each month. The second three months, infant’s head circumference will increase 1 cm each month. And for the six months later, the rate is 0.5 cm per month, and end up with an average of 47 centimeters. This formula is compared to the WHO’s head circumference growth chart. The shape of this tape-in-hat is alike an upper arm measurement. This tape-in-hat diameter is about 47 centimeters. It contains twelve different colours range by age. If it is out of the normal colour, the infant potentially suffers hydrocephalus. This examination should be done monthly. If in two times of measurement there still in the same range abnormal of head circumference, or a rapid growth of the head circumference size, the infant should be referred to a pediatrician. There are the pink hat for girls and blue hat for boys. Based on this paper, we know that this measurement can be used to help early detection of hydrocephalus in an infant.

Keywords: head circumference, hydrocephalus, infant, mike hat

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Authors: Samira Bensoltane, Smina Ait Hamlet, Samti Meriem, Semmasel Asma

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Living organisms in the soil are subject to regular fluctuations of abiotic parameters, as well as a chemical contamination of the environment due to human activities. They are subject to multiple stressors they face. The aim of our work was to study the effects of insecticide: thiamethoxam (neonicotinoid), and the potential reversibility of the effects by an antioxidant: ginger on a bioindicator species in ecotoxicology, the land snail Helix aspersa. The effects were studied by a targeted cell approach of evaluating the effect of these molecules on tissue and cellular aspect of hepatopancreas through histological study. Treatment with thiamethoxam concentrations 10, 20, and 40 mg/l shows signs of inflammation even at low concentrations and from the 5th day of treatment. Histological examination of the hepatopancreas of snails treated with thiamethoxam showed significant changes from the lowest concentrations tested , note intertubular connective tissue enlargement, necrosis deferent types of cells (cells with calcium , digestive, excretory) , also damage acini, alteration of the apical membrane and lysis of the basement membrane in a dose- dependent manner. After 10 days of treatment and with 40 mg/l, the same changes were observed with a very advanced degeneration of the wall of the member that could be confused with the cell debris. For cons, the histological study of the hepatopancreas in Helix aspersa treated with ginger for a period of 15 days after stopping treatment with thiamethoxam has shown a partial regeneration of hepatopancreatic tissue snails treated with all concentrations of thiamethoxam and especially in the intertubular connective tissue of the wall and hepatopancreatic digestive tubules. Finally, we can conclude that monitoring the effect of the insecticide thiamethoxam showed significant alterations, however, treatment with ginger shows regeneration of damaged cells themselves much sharper at low concentration (10 mg/L).

Keywords: Helix aspersa, insecticides, thiamethoxam, ginger, hepatopancreas

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Authors: Aastha Agarwal, Veena Sharma

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N-nitrosopyrollidine or NPYR is a tobacco-specific nitrosamine which upon intoxicated causes abnormal production of Reactive Oxygen Species disrupt the endogenous antioxidant system. The study was designed to evaluate the histological changes in lung tissue of Mus musculus in NPYR administered lungs and effect of isolated flavonoid 3,6-dihydroxy-(3’,4’,7’-trimethoxyphenyl)-chromen-4-one-7-glucoside (ITC) from experimental plant Indigofera tinctorial. Post treatment with isolated compound significantly restored the abnormal symptoms and changes in pulmonary tissue. Transverse section of mouse lung in control animals appeared as a thin lace. Histologically, most of the lung was arranged as alveoli which were thin walled structures made up of single layered squamous epithelial cells. In the transverse section of lung at 100 X will clearly show the component of alveoli, surround by a thin layer of connective tissue and blood vessels. Smaller bronchioles were lined by cuboidal epithelial cells while larger bronchioles were lined by ciliated columnar epithelium layer while in NPYR intoxicated lungs signs of vast pulmonary damages and carcinogenesis as alveolar damage, necrosis, DADs or defused alveolar damages hyperplasia, metaplasia, dysplasia and next stage of carcinogenesis were revealed. Treatment with ITC showed the significant positive changes in the lung tissue due to the side hydroxyl and methoxy groups in its structure which help in combating oxidative injuries and give protection from the free radicals generated during the metabolism of NPYR in body. Thus, histopathological analysis confirms the development of the cancerous conditions in the lung tissue in mice model and the protective effects of ITC.

Keywords: flavonoid, histopathology, Indigofera tinctoria, lung

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Authors: Hadi Allafta, Christian Opp

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Soil erosion is a major concern in the Shatt Al-Arab basin owing to the steepness of its topography as well as the remarkable altitudinal deference between the upstream and downstream parts of the basin. Such conditions resulted in soil vulnerability to erosion; huge amounts of soil are annually transported, creating enormous implications such as land degradation, structure damage, biodiversity loss, productivity decline, etc. Thus, evaluation of soil erosion risk and its spatial distribution is crucial to build adatabase for efficient control measures. The present study used revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) for depicting soil erosion hazard zones in the Shatt Al-Arab basin. The RUSLE model incorporated several parameters such as rainfall-runoff erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, land cover and management, and conservation support practice for soil erosion zonation. High to medium soil loss of 100 to 20 ton perhectare per year represents around 25% of the basin area, while the areas of low soil loss of less than 20 ton per hectare per year occupied the rest of the total area. The high soil loss rates are linked to areas of high rainfall levels, loamy soil domination, elevated terrains/plateau margins with steep side slope, and high cultivation activities. The findings of the current study can be useful for managers and policy makers in the implementation of a suitable conservation program to reduce soil erosion or to recommend soil conservation acts if development projects are to be continued at regions of high soil erosion risk.

Keywords: geographic information system, revised universal soil loss equation, shatt Al-Arab basin, soil erosion

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Authors: Ali Etemadi, Claudia Fernanda Yasar

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Elevated water storage tank structures (EWSTs) are high elevated-ponderous structural systems and very vulnerable to seismic vibrations. In past earthquake events, many of these structures exhibit poor performance and experienced severe damage. The dynamic analysis of the EWSTs under earthquake loads is, therefore, of significant importance for the design of the structure and a key issue for the development of modern methods, such as active control design. In this study, a reduced model of the EWSTs is explained, which is based on a tuned mass damper model (TMD). Vibration analysis of a structure under seismic excitation is presented and then used to propose an active vibration controller. MATLAB/Simulink is employed for dynamic analysis of the system and control of the seismic response. A single degree of freedom (SDOF) and two degree of freedom (2DOF) models of ELSTs are going to be used to study the concept of active vibration control. Lab-scale experimental models similar to pendulum are applied to suppress vibrations in ELST under seismic excitation. One of the most important phenomena in liquid storage tanks is the oscillation of fluid due to the movements of the tank body because of its base motions during an earthquake. Simulation results illustrate that the EWSTs vibration can be reduced by means of an input shaping technique that takes into account the dominant mode shape of the structure. Simulations with which to guide many of our designs are presented in detail. A simple and effective real-time control for seismic vibration damping can be, therefore, design and built-in practice.

Keywords: elevated water storage tank, tuned mass damper model, real time control, shaping control, seismic vibration control, the laplace transform

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Authors: Marina S. Basta, Kirollos S. Basta

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Cosmetic dermatology procedures have witnessed exponential growth and diversification over the last 10 years. Thus, the purpose of this study was to collect data about the latest trends for cosmetic procedures reported by dermatologists during the year 2018. This study was performed by American Society for Dermatologic Surgery (ASDS) in 2018 through sending survey invitations to 3,358 practicing dermatologists in the U.S. containing streamline questions as well as statistical questions targeted to specific analysis of cosmetic dermatology trends. Out of the targeted physicians, only 596 dermatologists reply to the survey invitation (15% overall response rate). It was noted that data collected from that survey was generalized to represent all ASDS members. Results show that there is an increase in cosmetic dermatology procedures since 12.5 million procedures were reported for 2018 compared to only 7.8 million for 2012. Injectable neuromodulators and soft tissue fillers have topped the list with a 3.7 million procedure count. Body sculpting, chemical peeling, hair transplantation, and microneedling procedures were reported to be 1.57 million cases combined. Also, the top two procedures using laser were represented in wrinkle treatment as well as sun damage correction, while the lowest two trends for laser usage were for treatments of tattoos and birthmarks. Cryolipolysis was found to be at the head of body sculpting procedures with 287,435 cases, while tumescent liposuction was reported as the least performed body sculpting procedure (18,286 cases). In conclusion, comparing the procedural trends for the last 7 years has indicated that there has been a 78% increase in soft tissue filler treatment compared to 2012. In addition, it was further noted that laser procedures scored 74% increase in the last 7 years while body contouring procedures have had four folds increase in general compared to 2012.

Keywords: cosmetic dermatology, ASDS procedure survey, laser, body sculpting

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Authors: Wahiba Boudraa, Farah Chettibbi, Meriem Aberkane, Fatma Djamaa, Moussa Houhamdi

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The intensity of human activities in regions surrounding the Mediterranean Sea always has a strong long-term environmental impact resulting in coastal and marine degradation, as well as an aggravated risk of more serious damage. The available data on water quality show that most water resources in Algeria are polluted by uncontrolled discharges from municipal sewage and untreated industrial effluents. Annaba is a coastal town in Algeria; The Gulf of Annaba, responds to these changes as it receives the continental inputs and urban waste, industrial without prior treatment of a highly industrialized and urbanized city, subject to the same environmental problems that know the rest of the Algerian coast. In later year, the beaches of bacterial enumeration process waters showed relatively high levels of bacterial indicators of fecal contamination (group D streptococci, total and fecal coliforms), which reflect the risks to people attending these beaches. During the twelve months of our study, we isolated from three beaches in the city of Annaba (St. Cloud, El-Kettara, and Djenane El Bey) a number of pathogenic microorganisms considered, namely: Salmonella, Aeromonas, Citrobacter, Yersinia, Enterococcus, and E.coli. The microbial count revealed elevated levels of coliform bacteria, fecal coliforms and fecal streptococci quite high especially in urban beaches (St. Cloud and El-Kettara). They are widely popular during the summer by many vacationers. For the physico-chemical parameters, there exist some weak values which increase during the pluvial period, hivernal and festival saison. These values remain, nevertheless, weak to be able to cause an organic or metallic pollution.

Keywords: quality microbiology, pollution of water, fecal contamination, physico-chemistry, beaches of Annaba city, Algeria.

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Akash Soogumbur

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Tourniquets are commonly used in orthopaedic surgery to provide hemostasis during procedures on the upper and lower limbs. However, there is a risk of complications associated with tourniquet use, such as nerve damage, skin necrosis, and compartment syndrome. The British Orthopaedic Association (BOAST) guidelines recommend the use of tourniquets at a pressure of 300 mmHg or less for a maximum of 2 hours. Research Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a tourniquet checklist in improving compliance with the BOAST guidelines. Methodology: This was a retrospective study of all orthopaedic procedures performed at a single institution over a 12-month period. The study population included patients who had a tourniquet applied during surgery. Data were collected from the patients' medical records, including the duration of tourniquet use, the pressure used, and the method of exsanguination. Findings: The results showed that the use of the tourniquet checklist significantly improved compliance with the BOAST guidelines. Prior to the introduction of the checklist, compliance with the guidelines was 83% for the duration of tourniquet use and 73% for pressure used. After the introduction of the checklist, compliance increased to 100% for both duration of tourniquet use and pressure used. Theoretical Importance: The findings of this study suggest that the use of a tourniquet checklist can be an effective way to improve compliance with the BOAST guidelines. This is important because it can help to reduce the risk of complications associated with tourniquet use. Data Collection: Data were collected from the patients' medical records. The data included the following information: Patient demographics, procedure performed, duration of tourniquet use, pressure used, method of exsanguination. Analysis Procedures: The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The compliance with the BOAST guidelines was calculated as the percentage of patients who met the guidelines for the duration of tourniquet use and pressure used. Question Addressed: The question addressed by this study was whether the use of a tourniquet checklist could improve compliance with the BOAST guidelines. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the use of a tourniquet checklist can be an effective way to improve compliance with the BOAST guidelines. This is important because it can help to reduce the risk of complications associated with tourniquet use.

Keywords: tourniquet, pressure, duration, complications, surgery

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Authors: Aysegul Alyamac, Sukru Gulec

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Ankaferd Blood Stopper (ABS) is a plant extract used to stop bleeding caused by injuries and surgical interventions. ABS also involved in wound healing of intestinal mucosal damage due to oxidative stress and inflammation. Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a common chronic disorder of the gastrointestinal tract that causes abdominal pain, diarrhea, and gastrointestinal bleeding, and increases the risk of colon cancer. Inflammation is an essential factor in the development of IBD. The various studies have been performed about the physiological effects of ABS; however, ABS dependent mechanism on colonic inflammation has not been elucidated. Thus, the protective effect of ABS on colonic inflammation was investigated in this study. The Caco-2 and RAW 264.7 murine macrophage cells were used as a model of in vitro colonic inflammation. RAW 264.7 cells were treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for 12 hours to induce the inflammation, and a conditional medium was obtained. Caco-2 cells were treated with 15 µl/ml ABS for 4 hours, then incubated with conditional medium and the cells also were incubated with 15 µl/ml ABS and conditional medium together for 4 hours. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) protein levels were targeted in testing inflammatory condition and its level was significantly increased (25 fold, p<0.001) compared to the control group by using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) method. The COX-2 mRNA level was used as a marker gene to show the possible anti-inflammatory effect of ABS in Caco-2 cells. RAW cells-derived conditional medium significantly (3.3 fold, p<0.001) induced cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) mRNA levels in Caco-2 cells. The pretreatment of Caco-2 cells caused a significant decrease (3.3 fold, p<0.001) in COX-2 mRNA levels relative to conditional medium given group. Furthermore, COX-2 mRNA level was significantly reduced (4,7 fold, p<0.001) in ABS and conditional medium treated group. These results suggest that ABS might have an anti-inflammatory effect in vitro.

Keywords: Ankaferd blood stopper, CaCo-2, colonic inflammation, RAW 264.7

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Authors: B. A. Alabadan, E. S. Ajayi, C. A. Okolo

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The storage losses recorded globally in maize (Zea mays) especially in the developing countries is worrisome. Certain degenerating changes in the physical characteristics (PC) of the grain occur due to the interaction between the stored maize and the immediate environment especially during long storage period. There has been tremendous reduction in the storage losses since the evolution of metallic silos. This study was carried out to assess the physical quality attributes of maize stored in 2500 MT and 1 MT metallic silos for a period of eight months. The PC evaluated includes percentage moisture content MC, insect damage ID, foreign matters FM, hectolitre weight HC, mould M and germinability VG. The evaluation of data obtained was done using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS 20) for windows evaluation version to determine significant levels and trend of deterioration (P < 0.05) for all the values obtained using Multiple Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and Duncan’s multivariate test. The result shows that the PC are significant with duration of storage at (P < 0.05) except MI and FM that are significant at (P > 0.05) irrespective of the size of the metallic silos. The average mean deviation for physical properties from the control in respect to duration of storage are as follows: MC 10.0 ±0.00%, HC 72.9 ± 0.44% ID 0.29 ± 0.00%, BG 0.55±0.05%, MI 0.00 ± 0.65%, FM 0.80± 0.20%, VG 100 ± 0.03%. The variables that were found to be significant (p < 0.05) with the position of grain in the bulk are VG, MI and ID while others are insignificant at (p > 0.05). Variables were all significant (p < 0.05) with the duration of storage with (0.00) significant levels, irrespective of the size of the metallic silos, but were insignificant with the position of the grain in the bulk (p > 0.05). From the results, it can be concluded that there is a slight decrease of the following variables, with time, HC, MC, and V, probably due to weather fluctuations and grain respiration, while FM, BG, ID and M were found to increase slightly probably due to insect activity in the bigger silos and loss of moisture. The size of metallic silos has no remarkable influence on the PC of stored maize (Zea mays). Germinability was found to be better with the 1 MT silos probably due to its hermetic nature. Smaller size metallic silos are preferred for storage of seeds but bigger silos largely depend on the position of the grains in the bulk.

Keywords: maize, storage, silo, physical characteristics

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Authors: Meng H. Lean, Wei-Ping L. Chu

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The effects of ferroelectric nanofiller size, shape, loading, and polarization, on bipolar charge injection, transport, and recombination through amorphous and semicrystalline polymers are studied. A 3D particle-in-cell model extends the classical electrical double layer representation to treat ferroelectric nanoparticles. Metal-polymer charge injection assumes Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, migration through field-dependent Poole-Frenkel mobility, and recombination with Monte Carlo selection based on collision probability. A boundary integral equation method is used for solution of the Poisson equation coupled with a second-order predictor-corrector scheme for robust time integration of the equations of motion. The stability criterion of the explicit algorithm conforms to the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy limit. Trajectories for charge that make it through the film are curvilinear paths that meander through the interspaces. Results indicate that charge transport behavior depends on nanoparticle polarization with anti-parallel orientation showing the highest leakage conduction and lowest level of charge trapping in the interaction zone. Simulation prediction of a size range of 80 to 100 nm to minimize attachment and maximize conduction is validated by theory. Attached charge fractions go from 2.2% to 97% as nanofiller size is decreased from 150 nm to 60 nm. Computed conductivity of 0.4 x 1014 S/cm is in agreement with published data for plastics. Charge attachment is increased with spheroids due to the increase in surface area, and especially so for oblate spheroids showing the influence of larger cross-sections. Charge attachment to nanofillers and nanocrystallites increase with vol.% loading or degree of crystallinity, and saturate at about 40 vol.%.

Keywords: nanocomposites, nanofillers, electrical double layer, bipolar charge transport

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Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

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Authors: Alejandra Betancur Sánchez, Carmen Elena Zapata Sánchez, Juan Bautista López Ortiz

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Adverse effects and increased air pollution has raised concerns about regulatory policies and has fostered the development of new air quality standards; this is due to the complexity of the composition and the poorly understood reactions in the atmospheric environment. Toxic compounds act as environmental agents having various effects, from irritation to death of cells and tissues. A toxic agent is defined an adverse response in a biological system. There is a particular class that produces some kind of alteration in the genetic material or associated components, so they are recognized as genotoxic agents. Within cells, they interact directly or indirectly with DNA, causing mutations or interfere with some enzymatic repair processes or in the genesis or polymerization of proteinaceous material involved in chromosome segregation. An air pollutant may cause or contribute to increased mortality or serious illness and even pose a potential danger to human health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect on the viability and the genotoxic potential on the cell lines CHO-K1 and Jurkat and peripheral blood of particulate matter PM T lymphocytes 2.5 obtained from filters collected three monitoring stations network air quality Aburrá Valley. Tests, reduction of MTT, trypan blue, NRU, comet assay, sister chromatid exchange (SCE) and chromosomal aberrations allowed evidence reduction in cell viability in cell lines CHO-K1 and Jurkat and damage to the DNA from cell line CHOK1, however, no significant effects were observed in the number of SCEs and chromosomal aberrations. The results suggest that PM2.5 material has genotoxic potential and can induce cancer development, as has been suggested in other studies.

Keywords: PM2.5, cell line Jurkat, cell line CHO-K1, cytotoxicity, genotoxicity

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Authors: A. Pietro Rimoldi, B. Anilkumar Gopinath, C. Minimol Korulla

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Coastal engineering structure is conventionally designed for a shorter planning horizon usually 20 years. These structures are subjected to different offshore climatic externalities like waves, tides, tsunamis etc. during the design life period. The probability of occurrence of these different offshore climatic externalities varies. The impact frequently caused by these externalities on the structures is of concern because it has a significant bearing on the capital /operating cost of the project. There can also be repeated short time occurrence of these externalities in the assumed planning horizon which can cause heavy damage to the conventional coastal structure which are mainly made of rock. A replacement of the damaged portion to prevent complete collapse is time consuming and expensive when dealing with hard rock structures. But if coastal structures are made of Geo-synthetic containment systems such replacement is quickly possible in the time period between two successive occurrences. In order to have a better knowledge and to enhance the predictive capacity of these occurrences, this study estimates risk of encounter within the design life period of various externalities based on the concept of exponential distribution. This gives an idea of the frequency of occurrences which in turn gives an indication of whether replacement is necessary and if so at what time interval such replacements have to be effected. To validate this theoretical finding, a pilot project has been taken up in the field so that the impact of the externalities can be studied both for a hard rock and a Geosynthetic tube structure. The paper brings out the salient feature of a case study which pertains to a project in which Geosynthetic tubes have been used for reformation of a seawall adjacent to a conventional rock structure in Alappuzha coast, Kerala, India. The effectiveness of the Geosystem in combatting the impact of the short-term externalities has been brought out.

Keywords: climatic externalities, exponential distribution, geosystems, planning horizon

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Authors: Abdullah Alnutayfat, Alexander Sutin

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One of the most important types of renewable energy resources is wind energy which can be produced by wind turbines. The blades of the wind turbine are exposed to the pressure of the harsh environment, which causes a significant issue for the wind power industry in terms of the maintenance cost and failure of blades. One of the reliable methods for blade inspection is the vibroacoustic structural health monitoring (SHM) method which examines information obtained from the structural vibrations of the blade. However, all vibroacoustic SHM techniques are based on comparing the structural vibration of intact and damaged structures, which places a practical limit on their use. Methods for nonlinear vibroacoustic SHM are more sensitive to damage and cracking and do not need to be compared to data from the intact structure. This paper presents the Vibro-Acoustic Modulation (VAM) method based on the modulation of high-frequency (probe wave) by low-frequency loads (pump wave) produced by the blade rotation. The blade rotation alternates bending stress due to gravity, leading to crack size variations and variations in the blade resonance frequency. This method can be used with the classical SHM vibration method in which the blade is excited by piezoceramic actuator patches bonded to the blade and receives the vibration response from another piezoceramic sensor. The VAM modification of this method analyzes the spectra of the detected signal and their sideband components. We suggest the VAM model as the simple mechanical oscillator, where the parameters of the oscillator (resonance frequency and damping) are varied due to low-frequency blade rotation. This model uses the blade vibration parameters and crack influence on the blade resonance properties from previous research papers to predict the modulation index (MI).

Keywords: wind turbine blades, damaged detection, vibro-acoustic structural health monitoring, vibro-acoustic modulation

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Authors: O. Delage, H. Bencherif, T. Portafaix, A. Bourdier

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The main purpose of time series analysis is to learn about the dynamics behind some time ordered measurement data. Two approaches are used in the literature to get a better knowledge of the dynamics contained in observation data sequences. The first of these approaches concerns time series decomposition, which is an important analysis step allowing patterns and behaviors to be extracted as components providing insight into the mechanisms producing the time series. As in many cases, time series are short, noisy, and non-stationary. To provide components which are physically meaningful, methods such as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT) or, more recently, Empirical Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition (EAWD) have been proposed. The second approach is to reconstruct the dynamics underlying the time series as a trajectory in state space by mapping a time series into a set of Rᵐ lag vectors by using the method of delays (MOD). Takens has proved that the trajectory obtained with the MOD technic is equivalent to the trajectory representing the dynamics behind the original time series. This work introduces the singular spectrum decomposition (SSD), which is a new adaptive method for decomposing non-linear and non-stationary time series in narrow-banded components. This method takes its origin from singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a nonparametric spectral estimation method used for the analysis and prediction of time series. As the first step of SSD is to constitute a trajectory matrix by embedding a one-dimensional time series into a set of lagged vectors, SSD can also be seen as a reconstruction method like MOD. We will first give a brief overview of the existing decomposition methods (EMD-EWT-EAWD). The SSD method will then be described in detail and applied to experimental time series of observations resulting from total columns of ozone measurements. The results obtained will be compared with those provided by the previously mentioned decomposition methods. We will also compare the reconstruction qualities of the observed dynamics obtained from the SSD and MOD methods.

Keywords: time series analysis, adaptive time series decomposition, wavelet, phase space reconstruction, singular spectrum analysis

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Authors: Jogi Prayogo, Dwi Qaqa Prasetyatama, Rahmad Dwi Afandi, Kunto Arief Prasetyo, Viorel Herniza Leksono

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PT. Pertamina Trans Kontinental managed a fleet of 364 ships in 2018 - 2020. In that period, there were 8 incidents of ship damage, causing breakdown maintenance on 6 ships belonging to PT Pertamina Trans Kontinental throughout Indonesia's operational areas due to ropes entangled in propellers. The company's losses that were caused by the fouled propellers amounted to 306.35 Million Rupiah. Of the 8 incidents, Mooring Boat PSC I was taken as a pilot project for further analysis considering the location of the ship which is in Surabaya and Mooring Boat PSC I has experienced 2 incidents of rope entanglement that caused the company's losses due to the largest Breakdown Maintenance amounted to 200.99 Million Rupiah. After analyzing the rope entanglement in the ship's propeller based on the data of Mooring Boat PSC I related to the location of propellers that are often fouled in the conventional propulsion system, it was found that there is a suitable location for the implementation of SI KUMAN tool that serves to cut ropes to prevent the occurrence of rope entangled in ship propellers. The determination of SI KUMAN tool is based on the strength of the ship's material to be installed and a suitable design to prevent the occurrence of ropes being entangled in propellers. After the installation of the "SI KUMAN" tool and monitoring carried out for 1 year period (August 2020 - August 2021), it was found that SI KUMAN tool can eliminate the risk of fouled propeller incidents which previously occurred twice in one year so that the company's loss amounted to 200.99 Million Rupiah can be eliminated and SI KUMAN tool can still operate optimally.

Keywords: breakdown maintenance, mooring boat, fleet, fouled propeller, rope entangled, cut

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Authors: Marija Vitanovа, Igor Gjorgjiev, Viktor Hristovski, Vlado Micov

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Evaluation of stability is very important in the process of definition of optimal structural measures for maintenance of bridge structures and their strengthening. To define optimal measures for their repair and strengthening, it is necessary to evaluate their static and seismic stability. Presented in this paper are methodologies for evaluation of the seismic stability of existing reinforced concrete bridges designed without consideration of seismic effects and checking of structural justification of newly designed bridge structures. All bridges are located in the territory of the Republic of North Macedonia. A total of 26 existing bridges of different structural systems have been analyzed. Visual inspection has been carried out for all bridges, along with the definition of three main damage categories according to which structures have been categorized in respect to the need for their repair and strengthening. Investigations involving testing the quality of the built-in materials have been carried out, and dynamic tests pointing to the dynamic characteristics of the structures have been conducted by use of non-destructive methods of ambient vibration measurements. The conclusions drawn from the performed measurements and tests have been used for the development of accurate mathematical models that have been analyzed for static and dynamic loads. Based on the geometrical characteristics of the cross-sections and the physical characteristics of the built-in materials, interaction diagrams have been constructed. These diagrams along with the obtained section quantities under seismic effects, have been used to obtain the bearing capacity of the cross-sections. The results obtained from the conducted analyses point to the need for the repair of certain structural parts of the bridge structures. They indicate that the stability of the superstructure elements is not critical during a seismic effect, unlike the elements of the sub-structure, whose strengthening is necessary.

Keywords: existing bridges, newly designed bridges, reinforced concrete bridges, stability assessment

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Authors: Kalsoom Rani

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Tobacco contains nicotine, which causes addiction to many toxic chemicals. In the world, people consume it in the form of smoke, chew, and sniffing, smoke of it is composed of almost 7000 active chemicals, which are very harmful to human health as well as for eye health, inhalation of tobacco smoke and fumes can accelerate and cause many blinding eye diseases. Dry eye and smoking have not been covered extensively in researches; more studies are required to unveil the relationship between smoking and dry eye. This study was conducted to determine the quantity and quality of tears in smokers. 60 subjects participated in the study, which was divided into two groups on the basis of consumption of cigarettes per day with age matched non smokers of 15-50 years. All participants have gone through a study based questioner, eye examination, and diagnostic 'Dry Eye Tests' for evaporative tears evaluation and measurement of basal tear secretion. Subjects were included in the criteria of 10 cigarettes per day with a minimum duration of 1 year; passive smokers for control groups were excluded. The study was carried out in a Medina Teaching Hospital, Faisalabad, Pakistan, ophthalmology department for the duration of 8 months. Mean values for tear break up time (TBUT), was reported 10sec with SD of +3.74 in controlled group, 5sec with SD + 2.32 in smokers and 4sec SD +3.77 heavy smokers in right eye (RE) and left eye (LE) 10.35sec with SD of +3.88 in controlled 5sec with SD + 2.3 in smokers and much reduced TBUT in heavy smokers was 3.85sec SD+2.20. Smoking has a very strong association with TRUT with a significance of P=.00 both eyes. Mean Schirmer-I value of the subjects was reported 12.6mm with SD + 8.37 in RE and 12.59mm with SD + 8.96 LE. The mean Schirmer-II test value was reported in the right, and left eye with a mean value for control was 20.23mm with SD + 8.93, 20.75mm with SD + 8.84 respectively, and in Smokers 9.90mm with SD + 5.74, and 10.07mm with SD + 6.98, and in heavy smokers 7.7mm, SD + 3.22 and 6.9, SD + 3.50 mm, association with smoking showed p=.001 in RE and .003 in LE. Smoking has deteriorated effect on both evaporative tear and aqueous tear secretion and causing symptoms of dry eye burning, itching, redness, and watering with epithelial cell damage.

Keywords: tear break-up time, basal tear secretion, smokers, dry eye

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Authors: Fatema-Tuz-Zohra Khanam, Ali Al-Naji, Asanka G. Perera, Kim Gibson, Javaan Chahl

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Conventional contact-based vital signs monitoring sensors such as pulse oximeters or electrocardiogram (ECG) may cause discomfort, skin damage, and infections, particularly in neonates with fragile, sensitive skin. Therefore, remote monitoring of the vital sign is desired in both clinical and non-clinical settings to overcome these issues. Camera-based vital signs monitoring is a recent technology for these applications with many positive attributes. However, there are still limited camera-based studies on neonates in a clinical setting. In this study, the heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) of eight infants at the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) in Flinders Medical Centre were remotely monitored using a digital camera applying color and motion-based computational methods. The region-of-interest (ROI) was efficiently selected by incorporating an image decomposition method. Furthermore, spatial averaging, spectral analysis, band-pass filtering, and peak detection were also used to extract both HR and RR. The experimental results were validated with the ground truth data obtained from an ECG monitor and showed a strong correlation using the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) 0.9794 and 0.9412 for HR and RR, respectively. The RMSE between camera-based data and ECG data for HR and RR were 2.84 beats/min and 2.91 breaths/min, respectively. A Bland Altman analysis of the data also showed a close correlation between both data sets with a mean bias of 0.60 beats/min and 1 breath/min, and the lower and upper limit of agreement -4.9 to + 6.1 beats/min and -4.4 to +6.4 breaths/min for both HR and RR, respectively. Therefore, video camera imaging may replace conventional contact-based monitoring in NICU and has potential applications in other contexts such as home health monitoring.

Keywords: neonates, NICU, digital camera, heart rate, respiratory rate, image decomposition

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Authors: Camilo A. Guerrero-Martin, Erik Montes Paez, Marcia C. K. Oliveira, Jonathan Campos, Elizabete F. Lucas

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Asphaltenes precipitation is considered as a formation damage problem, which can reduce the oil recovery factor. It fouls piping and surface installations, as well as cause serious flow assurance complications and decline oil well production. Therefore, researchers have shown an interest in chemical treatments to control this phenomenon. The aim of this paper is to assess the asphaltenes precipitation onset of crude oils in the presence of cardanol, by titrating the crude with n-heptane. Moreover, based on this results obtained at atmosphere pressure, the asphaltenes precipitation onset pressure were calculated to predict asphaltenes precipitation in the reservoir, by using differential liberation and refractive index data of the oils. The influence of cardanol concentrations in the asphaltenes stabilization of three Brazilian crude oils samples (with similar API densities) was studied. Therefore, four formulations of cardanol in toluene were prepared: 0, 3, 5, 10 and 15 m/m%. The formulations were added to the crude at 2:98 ratio. The petroleum samples were characterized by API density, elemental analysis and differential liberation test. The asphaltenes precipitation onset (APO) was determined by titrating with n-heptane and monitoring with near-infrared (NIR). UV-Vis spectroscopy experiments were also done to assess the precipitate asphaltenes content. The asphaltenes precipitation envelopes (APE) were also determined by numerical simulation (Multiflash). In addition, the adequate artificial lift systems (ALS) for the oils were selected. It was based on the downhole well profile and a screening methodology. Finally, the oil flowrates were modelling by NODAL analysis production system in the PIPESIM software. The results of this study show that the asphaltenes precipitation onset of the crude oils were 2.2, 2.3 and 6.0 mL of n-heptane/g of oil. The cardanol was an effective inhibitor of asphaltenes precipitation for the crude oils used in this study, since it displaces the precipitation pressure of the oil to lower values. This indicates that cardanol can increase the oil wells productivity.

Keywords: asphaltenes, NODAL analysis production system, precipitation pressure onset, inhibitory molecule

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Wala Abou Saoud, Aymen Amine Assadi, Monia Guiza, Abdelkrim Bouzaza, Wael Aboussaoud, Abdelmottaleb Ouederni, Dominique Wolbert

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Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) constitute one of the most important families of chemicals involved in atmospheric pollution, causing damage to the environment and human health, and need, consequently, to be eliminated. Among the promising technologies, dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma - photocatalysis coupling reveals very interesting prospects in terms of process synergy of compounds mineralization’s, with low energy consumption. In this study, the removal of organic compounds such butyraldehyde (BUTY) and dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) (exhaust gasses from animal quartering centers.) in air mixture using DBD plasma coupled with photocatalysis was tested, in order to determine whether or not synergy effect was present. The removal efficiency of these pollutants, a selectivity of CO₂ and CO, and byproducts formation such as ozone formation were investigated in order to evaluate the performance of the combined process. For this purpose, a series of experiments were carried out in a continuous reactor. Many operating parameters were also investigated such as the specific energy of discharge, the inlet concentration of pollutant and the flowrate. It appears from this study that, the performance of the process has enhanced and a synergetic effect is observed. In fact, we note an enhancement of 10 % on removal efficiency. It is interesting to note that the combined system leads to better CO₂ selectivity than for plasma. Consequently, intermediates by-products have been reduced due to various other species (O•, N, OH•, O₂•-, O₃, NO₂, NOx, etc.). Additionally, the behavior of combining DBD plasma and photocatalysis has shown that the ozone can be easily also decomposed in presence of photocatalyst.

Keywords: combined process, DBD plasma, photocatalysis, pilot scale, synergetic effect, VOCs

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Authors: Geovanna dos Santos Romeiro, Polintia Rayza Brito da Silva, Luis Henrique Moura, Izadora Moreira Do Amaral, Marília Vitória Pinto Milhomem

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Introduction: The nose is one of the most likely sites for the appearance of malignancy on the face. This can be associated with its unique position of exposure to environmental damage, lack of photoprotection and because it is an area susceptible to greater sun exposure. It is already known that the most common type of nasal tumor is basal cell carcinoma. Squamous cell carcinoma is less common but considerably more aggressive, with a tendency to grow rapidly and metastasize. Nasal skin cancer can have a good prognosis, regardless of the type of treatment chosen, i.e., surgery, radiotherapy or electrodissection. However, tumors that are not diagnosed and treated quickly can be harmful and have a greater chance of metastasizing. When curative surgery is performed, therapies and reconstructive surgical procedures are usually required. Objective: The objective is to review the literature on nasal skin tumors and their types and specific locations. Forty-four articles published in Pubmed related to the location of skin cancer in the specific nasal areas region were analyzed. Twelve were excluded for being prior to the year 2000, three with inconclusive results, and one with unbiased conclusions. Results and Conclusion: Regarding the prevalence of types of nasal tumors, basal cell carcinoma comprises the majority, occurring predominantly in the ala, tip and root; squamous cell carcinoma, on the other hand, is more common in the lateral borders and columella. Even so, 2 articles report that the prevalence of metastasis has a higher incidence in squamous cell carcinomas. All of this points to the importance of early location, including regions that are often overlooked in the examination if the patient is wearing glasses. This topic needs further investigation for a greater correlation between anatomy and clinical-surgical implications.

Keywords: skin cancer, melanoma, non-melanoma, surgery

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Authors: Naylya Djumaeva

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Since the end of 2019, the world has been shaken by an infection that has claimed the lives of more than six and a half million patients. Currently, SARS-CoV-2 not only causes acute damage but has long-term consequences affecting every organ and has brought a wave of a new chronic disabling condition called Long-Covid..This preliminary study describes an application of un-explored properties of low-level laser radiation with laser- light emitter in the field of which is placed Copegus (Ribavirin) with the aim of treatment of patients with Long-Covid syndrome. The difference from the traditional use of the drug is that Copegus was not prescribed to the patient by the traditional method - orally or intravenously, and the medicinal properties of the drug were introduced into the patient’s body using the un-explored properties of low-power laser radiation. Ninety eight patients with Long- Covid syndrome were observed. The obtained findings suggest that under the influence of the field formed into the laser- light emitter with a Copegus placed inside the field, the remote transfer of pharmacological properties of Сopegus occurs. Conclusions about the produced effect of exposure were made based on improvement in the condition of patients, the disappearance of complaints, and positive changes in various diagnostic tests performed by the patients. Biography: Djumaeva N completed her PhD from the Institute of Epidemiology, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in 2000. In her dissertation work devoted to the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection, she presented data on the possible influence of Complex Homeopathic Preparations on the organization of bound intracellular water in the cells of the body. She is the Consultant (Neurologist) at the Scientific-Research Institute for Virology, Uzbekistan, and an expert in “medicament testing” method (30 years). She has published 43 papers, including 2 patents.

Keywords: long covid, low level laser, copegus, laser- light emmiter

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Authors: Nitin Kumar

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Purpose: The current research work focuses mainly on evolving a delivery system for ginseng extract (GE), which in turn will ameliorate the neuroprotective potential by means of enhancing the ginsenoside (Rb1) bio-availability (BA). For more noteworthy enhancement in oral bioavailability (OBA) along with pharmacological properties, the drug carriers’ performance can be strengthened by utilizing phytosomes-loaded microspheres (PM) delivery system. Methods: For preparing the disparate phytosome complexes (F1, F2, and F3), an aqueous extract of ginseng roots (GR) along with phospholipids were reacted in disparate ratio. Considering the outcomes, F3 formulation (spray-dried) was chosen for preparing the phytosomes powder (PP), PM, and extract microspheres (EM). PM was made by means of loading of F3 into Gum Arabic (GA) in addition to maltodextrin polymer mixture, whereas EM was prepared by means of the addition of extract directly into the same polymer mixture. For investigating the neuroprotective effect (NPE) in addition to their pharmacokinetic (PK) properties, PP, PM, and EM formulations were assessed. Results: F3 formulation gave enhanced entrapment efficiency (EE) (i.e., 50.61%) along with good homogeneity of spherical shaped particle size (PS) (42.58 ± 1.4 nm) with least polydispersity index (PDI) (i.e., 0.193 ± 0.01). The sustained release (up to 24 h) of ginsenoside Rb1 (GRb1) is revealed by the dissolution study of PM. A significantly (p < 0.05) greater anti-oxidant (AO) potential of PM can well be perceived as of the diminution in the lipid peroxidase level in addition to the rise in the glutathione superoxide dismutase (SOD) in addition to catalase levels. It also showed a greater neuroprotective potential exhibiting significant (p < 0.05) augmentation in the nociceptive threshold together with the diminution in damage to nerves. A noteworthy enhancement in the relative BA (157.94%) of GRb1 through the PM formulation can well be seen in the PK studies. Conclusion: It is exhibited that the PM system is an optimistic and feasible strategy to enhance the delivery of GE for the effectual treatment of neuropathic pain.

Keywords: ginseng, neuropathic, phytosome, pain

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Urban flooding is a common occurrence throughout Asia. Almost every city is vulnerable to urban floods in some fashion, and city people are particularly vulnerable. Pluvial and fluvial flooding are the most prominent causes of urban flooding in the Gomti Nagar region of Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India. The pluvial flooding is regarded to be less damaging because it is caused by heavy rainfall, Seasonal rainfall fluctuations, water flows off concrete infrastructures, blockages of the drainage system, and insufficient drainage capacity or low infiltration capacity. However, this study considers pluvial flooding in Lucknow to be a significant source of cumulative damage over time, and the risks of such events are increasing as a result of changes in ageing infrastructure, hazard exposure, rapid urbanization, massive water logging and global warming. As a result, urban flooding has emerged as a critical field of study. The popularity of analytical approaches to project the spatial extent of flood dangers has skyrocketed. To address future urban flood resilience, more effort is needed to enhance both hydrodynamic models and analytical tools to simulate risks under present and forecast conditions. Proper urban planning with drainage system and ample space for high infiltration capacity are required to reduce urban flooding. A better India with no urban flooding is a pipe dream that can be realized by putting household rooftop rainwater collection systems in every structure. According to the current study, domestic RTRWHs are strongly recommended as an alternative source of water, as well as to prevent surface runoff and urban floods in this region of Lucknow, urban areas of India.

Keywords: rooftop rainwater harvesting, urban flood, pluvial flooding, fluvial flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 70