Search results for: generalized autoregressive score model
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 18621

Search results for: generalized autoregressive score model

15261 Regionalization of IDF Curves with L-Moments for Storm Events

Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

Abstract:

The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

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15260 Evaluating the Knowledge and Skill of Final Year Pharmacy Students in Maternal and Child Health at a University in South Africa

Authors: E. O. Egieyeh, N. Butler, R. Coetzee, M. Van Huyssteen, A. Bheekie

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Background: High rate of maternal and child mortality is a global concern. Nationally, it constitutes one of South Africa’s quadruple burdens of diseases. Pharmacists have a crucial role in maternal and child health care delivery and as such should be equipped with adequate knowledge and skill required to contribute to maternal and child well-being. The International Pharmaceutical Federation statement of policy (2013) outlines pharmacist-led interventions in accordance with the World Health Organisation’s interventions in maternal, new-born and child health care. The South African Pharmacy Council’s guideline on Good Pharmacy Practice (2010) also stipulates the minimum standards required to participate in reproductive, maternal and child care. Pharmacy schools are obliged to train pharmacy students to meet priority health needs of the population so that graduates are ‘fit for purpose’. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the knowledge and skill of final year pharmacy students at a university in South Africa to determine their preparedness to contribute effectively to maternal and child health care. Method: A quantitative, descriptive, non-randomized baseline study was conducted among the final year students at the School of Pharmacy. Data was collected using a questionnaire designed in sections to assess knowledge of contraception, maternal and child health directed at the primary care level and framed within the scope of practice required of an entry-level generalist pharmacist. Participants’ skill in infant growth assessment was assessed in a section of the questionnaire in a written format. Participants ticked the topics they had been exposed to on a curriculum content assessment tool which was not graded. A pilot study examined the clarity and suitability of question items, and duration to complete the questionnaire. A score of 50% in each section of the questionnaire indicated a pass. The questionnaire was delivered in campus lecture venue. Results: Of the 102 students in final year, 53 (52%) students consented to participate in the study. Only 13.2% of participants scored above 50% in each section. Forty five (85%) participants scored above 50% in the contraception section while 40 (75%) scored less than 50% in the skills assessment. Less than half (45.3%) of the participants had a total score above 50%. Being a parent or working part-time as pharmacist assistance did not have any influence on the performance of the participants. Evaluation of participants’ curriculum content exposure showed differences in exposure to the various topics. Exposure to contraception teaching received the most recognition. Conclusion: Maternal and child health curriculum content should be reviewed at the university to enhance the knowledge and skill of pharmacy graduates.

Keywords: final year pharmacy students, knowledge and skill, maternal and child health, South Africa

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15259 Probabilistic Graphical Model for the Web

Authors: M. Nekri, A. Khelladi

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The world wide web network is a network with a complex topology, the main properties of which are the distribution of degrees in power law, A low clustering coefficient and a weak average distance. Modeling the web as a graph allows locating the information in little time and consequently offering a help in the construction of the research engine. Here, we present a model based on the already existing probabilistic graphs with all the aforesaid characteristics. This work will consist in studying the web in order to know its structuring thus it will enable us to modelize it more easily and propose a possible algorithm for its exploration.

Keywords: clustering coefficient, preferential attachment, small world, web community

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15258 Application of Data Mining Techniques for Tourism Knowledge Discovery

Authors: Teklu Urgessa, Wookjae Maeng, Joong Seek Lee

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Application of five implementations of three data mining classification techniques was experimented for extracting important insights from tourism data. The aim was to find out the best performing algorithm among the compared ones for tourism knowledge discovery. Knowledge discovery process from data was used as a process model. 10-fold cross validation method is used for testing purpose. Various data preprocessing activities were performed to get the final dataset for model building. Classification models of the selected algorithms were built with different scenarios on the preprocessed dataset. The outperformed algorithm tourism dataset was Random Forest (76%) before applying information gain based attribute selection and J48 (C4.5) (75%) after selection of top relevant attributes to the class (target) attribute. In terms of time for model building, attribute selection improves the efficiency of all algorithms. Artificial Neural Network (multilayer perceptron) showed the highest improvement (90%). The rules extracted from the decision tree model are presented, which showed intricate, non-trivial knowledge/insight that would otherwise not be discovered by simple statistical analysis with mediocre accuracy of the machine using classification algorithms.

Keywords: classification algorithms, data mining, knowledge discovery, tourism

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15257 A Literature Review of the Trend towards Indoor Dynamic Thermal Comfort

Authors: James Katungyi

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The Steady State thermal comfort model which dominates thermal comfort practice and which posits the ideal thermal conditions in a narrow range of thermal conditions does not deliver the expected comfort levels among occupants. Furthermore, the buildings where this model is applied consume a lot of energy in conditioning. This paper reviews significant literature about thermal comfort in dynamic indoor conditions including the adaptive thermal comfort model and alliesthesia. A major finding of the paper is that the adaptive thermal comfort model is part of a trend from static to dynamic indoor environments in aspects such as lighting, views, sounds and ventilation. Alliesthesia or thermal delight is consistent with this trend towards dynamic thermal conditions. It is within this trend that the two fold goal of increased thermal comfort and reduced energy consumption lies. At the heart of this trend is a rediscovery of the link between the natural environment and human well-being, a link that was partially severed by over-reliance on mechanically dominated artificial indoor environments. The paper concludes by advocating thermal conditioning solutions that integrate mechanical with natural thermal conditioning in a balanced manner in order to meet occupant thermal needs without endangering the environment.

Keywords: adaptive thermal comfort, alliesthesia, energy, natural environment

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15256 Stress and Strain Analysis of Notched Bodies Subject to Non-Proportional Loadings

Authors: Ayhan Ince

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In this paper, an analytical simplified method for calculating elasto-plastic stresses strains of notched bodies subject to non-proportional loading paths is discussed. The method was based on the Neuber notch correction, which relates the incremental elastic and elastic-plastic strain energy densities at the notch root and the material constitutive relationship. The validity of the method was presented by comparing computed results of the proposed model against finite element numerical data of notched shaft. The comparison showed that the model estimated notch-root elasto-plastic stresses strains with good accuracy using linear-elastic stresses. The prosed model provides more efficient and simple analysis method preferable to expensive experimental component tests and more complex and time consuming incremental non-linear FE analysis. The model is particularly suitable to perform fatigue life and fatigue damage estimates of notched components subjected to non-proportional loading paths.

Keywords: elasto-plastic, stress-strain, notch analysis, nonprortional loadings, cyclic plasticity, fatigue

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15255 Quantum Decision Making with Small Sample for Network Monitoring and Control

Authors: Tatsuya Otoshi, Masayuki Murata

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With the development and diversification of applications on the Internet, applications that require high responsiveness, such as video streaming, are becoming mainstream. Application responsiveness is not only a matter of communication delay but also a matter of time required to grasp changes in network conditions. The tradeoff between accuracy and measurement time is a challenge in network control. We people make countless decisions all the time, and our decisions seem to resolve tradeoffs between time and accuracy. When making decisions, people are known to make appropriate choices based on relatively small samples. Although there have been various studies on models of human decision-making, a model that integrates various cognitive biases, called ”quantum decision-making,” has recently attracted much attention. However, the modeling of small samples has not been examined much so far. In this paper, we extend the model of quantum decision-making to model decision-making with a small sample. In the proposed model, the state is updated by value-based probability amplitude amplification. By analytically obtaining a lower bound on the number of samples required for decision-making, we show that decision-making with a small number of samples is feasible.

Keywords: quantum decision making, small sample, MPEG-DASH, Grover's algorithm

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15254 CNS Cryptococcoma in an Immunocompetent Adult from a Low Resource Setting: A Case Report

Authors: Ssembatya Joseph Mary

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Introduction: Cryptococcal infection in the Central Nervous System (CNS) is frequently seen in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients and others with low immunity as an opportunistic fungal infection. However, CNS cryptococcal granuloma (cryptococcoma) in immunocompetent patients is rare. We present a case of CNS cryptococcoma in an immunocompetent patient and review the literature to illustrate the diagnosis and treatment of such lesions. Case presentation: A 62-year-old, HIV-negative, immunocompetent female patient with no known chronic illness presented with 5 months history of a progressive headache associated with on and off episodic generalized tonic-clonic convulsions. She had been to several hospitals before she was referred to our center with a diagnosis of a brain tumor. Before referral and despite a negative CSF analysis result, she had received treatment for bacterial meningitis with no success. At Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH), she had surgery with an excision biopsy which showed features consistent with cryptococcosis on histology. The patient had a successful adjuvant treatment with antifungal drugs following surgery. Conclusion: The diagnosis of a parasitic CNS infection, particularly cryptococcal infection mimicking neoplastic lesions in an immunocompetent patient, was unusual. Surgical management of such lesions from different reports has a bad outcome and management remains totally conservative.

Keywords: Cryptococcal meningitis, immunocompetent patient, Uganda, low resource setting

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15253 Transfer Function Model-Based Predictive Control for Nuclear Core Power Control in PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor

Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The 1MWth PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP) in Malaysia Nuclear Agency has been operating more than 35 years. The existing core power control is using conventional controller known as Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA). It is technically challenging to keep the core power output always stable and operating within acceptable error bands for the safety demand of the RTP. Currently, the system could be considered unsatisfactory with power tracking performance, yet there is still significant room for improvement. Hence, a new design core power control is very important to improve the current performance in tracking and regulating reactor power by controlling the movement of control rods that suit the demand of highly sensitive of nuclear reactor power control. In this paper, the proposed Model Predictive Control (MPC) law was applied to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, MPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on point kinetics model, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The proposed MPC was presented in a transfer function model of the reactor core according to perturbations theory. The transfer function model-based predictive control (TFMPC) was developed to design the core power control with predictions based on a T-filter towards the real-time implementation of MPC on hardware. This paper introduces the sensitivity functions for TFMPC feedback loop to reduce the impact on the input actuation signal and demonstrates the behaviour of TFMPC in term of disturbance and noise rejections. The comparisons of both tracking and regulating performance between the conventional controller and TFMPC were made using MATLAB and analysed. In conclusion, the proposed TFMPC has satisfactory performance in tracking and regulating core power for controlling nuclear reactor with high reliability and safety.

Keywords: core power control, model predictive control, PUSPATI TRIGA reactor, TFMPC

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15252 Exploring a Teaching Model in Cultural Education Using Video-Focused Social Networking Apps: An Example of Chinese Language Teaching for African Students

Authors: Zhao Hong

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When international students study Chinese as a foreign or second language, it is important for them to form constructive viewpoints and possess an open mindset on Chinese culture. This helps them to make faster progress in their language acquisition. Observations from African students at Liaoning Institute of Science and Technology show that by integrating video-focused social networking apps such as Tiktok (“Douyin”) on a controlled basis, students raise their interest not only in making an effort in learning the Chinese language, but also in the understanding of the Chinese culture. During the last twelve months, our research group explored a teaching model using selected contents in certain classroom settings, including virtual classrooms during lockdown periods due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using interviews, a survey was conducted on international students from African countries at the Liaoning Institute of Science and Technology in Chinese language courses. Based on the results, a teaching model was built for Chinese language acquisition by entering the "mobile Chinese culture".

Keywords: Chinese as a foreign language, cultural education, social networking apps, teaching model

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15251 Simulation of Growth and Yield of Rice Under Irrigation and Nitrogen Management Using ORYZA2000

Authors: Mojtaba Esmaeilzad Limoudehi

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To evaluate the model ORYZA2000, under the management of irrigation and nitrogen fertilization experiment, a split plot with a randomized complete block design with three replications on hybrid cultivars (spring) in the 1388-1387 crop year was conducted at the Rice Research Institute. Permanent flood irrigation as the main plot in the fourth level, around 5 days, from 11 days to 8 days away, and the four levels of nitrogen fertilizer as the subplots 0, 90, 120, and 150 kg N Ha were considered. Simulated and measured values of leaf area index, grain yield, and biological parameters using the regression coefficient, t-test, the root mean square error (RMSE), and normalized root mean square error (RMSEn) were performed. Results, the normalized root mean square error of 10% in grain yield, the biological yield of 9%, and 23% of maximum LAI was determined. The simulation results show that grain yield and biological ORYZA2000 model accuracy are good but do not simulate maximum LAI well. The results show that the model can support ORYZA2000 test results and can be used under conditions of nitrogen fertilizer and irrigation management.

Keywords: evaluation, rice, nitrogen fertilizer, model ORYZA2000

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15250 Reliability Modeling on Drivers’ Decision during Yellow Phase

Authors: Sabyasachi Biswas, Indrajit Ghosh

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The random and heterogeneous behavior of vehicles in India puts up a greater challenge for researchers. Stop-and-go modeling at signalized intersections under heterogeneous traffic conditions has remained one of the most sought-after fields. Vehicles are often caught up in the dilemma zone and are unable to take quick decisions whether to stop or cross the intersection. This hampers the traffic movement and may lead to accidents. The purpose of this work is to develop a stop and go prediction model that depicts the drivers’ decision during the yellow time at signalised intersections. To accomplish this, certain traffic parameters were taken into account to develop surrogate model. This research investigated the Stop and Go behavior of the drivers by collecting data from 4-signalized intersections located in two major Indian cities. Model was developed to predict the drivers’ decision making during the yellow phase of the traffic signal. The parameters used for modeling included distance to stop line, time to stop line, speed, and length of the vehicle. A Kriging base surrogate model has been developed to investigate the drivers’ decision-making behavior in amber phase. It is observed that the proposed approach yields a highly accurate result (97.4 percent) by Gaussian function. It was observed that the accuracy for the crossing probability was 95.45, 90.9 and 86.36.11 percent respectively as predicted by the Kriging models with Gaussian, Exponential and Linear functions.

Keywords: decision-making decision, dilemma zone, surrogate model, Kriging

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15249 A Study on Improvement of the Torque Ripple and Demagnetization Characteristics of a PMSM

Authors: Yong Min You

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The study on the torque ripple of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs) has been rapidly progressed, which effects on the noise and vibration of the electric vehicle. There are several ways to reduce torque ripple, which are the increase in the number of slots and poles, the notch of the rotor and stator teeth, and the skew of the rotor and stator. However, the conventional methods have the disadvantage in terms of material cost and productivity. The demagnetization characteristic of PMSMs must be attained for electric vehicle application. Due to rare earth supply issue, the demand for Dy-free permanent magnet has been increasing, which can be applied to PMSMs for the electric vehicle. Dy-free permanent magnet has lower the coercivity; the demagnetization characteristic has become more significant. To improve the torque ripple as well as the demagnetization characteristics, which are significant parameters for electric vehicle application, an unequal air-gap model is proposed for a PMSM. A shape optimization is performed to optimize the design variables of an unequal air-gap model. Optimal design variables are the shape of an unequal air-gap and the angle between V-shape magnets. An optimization process is performed by Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), Kriging Method, and Genetic Algorithm (GA). Finite element analysis (FEA) is also utilized to analyze the torque and demagnetization characteristics. The torque ripple and the demagnetization temperature of the initial model of 45kW PMSM with unequal air-gap are 10 % and 146.8 degrees, respectively, which are reaching a critical level for electric vehicle application. Therefore, the unequal air-gap model is proposed, and then an optimization process is conducted. Compared to the initial model, the torque ripple of the optimized unequal air-gap model was reduced by 7.7 %. In addition, the demagnetization temperature of the optimized model was also increased by 1.8 % while maintaining the efficiency. From these results, a shape optimized unequal air-gap PMSM has shown the usefulness of an improvement in the torque ripple and demagnetization temperature for the electric vehicle.

Keywords: permanent magnet synchronous motor, optimal design, finite element method, torque ripple

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15248 Using Combination of Sets of Features of Molecules for Aqueous Solubility Prediction: A Random Forest Model

Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

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Generally, absorption and bioavailability increase if solubility increases; therefore, it is crucial to predict them in drug discovery applications. Molecular descriptors and Molecular properties are traditionally used for the prediction of water solubility. There are various key descriptors that are used for this purpose, namely Drogan Descriptors, Morgan Descriptors, Maccs keys, etc., and each has different prediction capabilities with differentiating successes between different data sets. Another source for the prediction of solubility is structural features; they are commonly used for the prediction of solubility. However, there are little to no studies that combine three or more properties or descriptors for prediction to produce a more powerful prediction model. Unlike available models, we used a combination of those features in a random forest machine learning model for improved solubility prediction to better predict and, therefore, contribute to drug discovery systems.

Keywords: solubility, random forest, molecular descriptors, maccs keys

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15247 WhatsApp as Part of a Blended Learning Model to Help Programming Novices

Authors: Tlou J. Ramabu

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Programming is one of the challenging subjects in the field of computing. In the higher education sphere, some programming novices’ performance, retention rate, and success rate are not improving. Most of the time, the problem is caused by the slow pace of learning, difficulty in grasping the syntax of the programming language and poor logical skills. More importantly, programming forms part of major subjects within the field of computing. As a result, specialized pedagogical methods and innovation are highly recommended. Little research has been done on the potential productivity of the WhatsApp platform as part of a blended learning model. In this article, the authors discuss the WhatsApp group as a part of blended learning model incorporated for a group of programming novices. We discuss possible administrative activities for productive utilisation of the WhatsApp group on the blended learning overview. The aim is to take advantage of the popularity of WhatsApp and the time students spend on it for their educational purpose. We believe that blended learning featuring a WhatsApp group may ease novices’ cognitive load and strengthen their foundational programming knowledge and skills. This is a work in progress as the proposed blended learning model with WhatsApp incorporated is yet to be implemented.

Keywords: blended learning, higher education, WhatsApp, programming, novices, lecturers

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15246 Cerrado and Vereda: A Survey of Portuguese Lexicon for Brazilian Biomes

Authors: Daniel Marra

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This paper analyses from a semantic-diachronic viewpoint the change of meanings that two lexical items of Brazilian-Portuguese language have gone through. Cerrado and Vereda designate currently the second largest Brazilian biome and one of its most important subsystems. Nevertheless, these two words have long individual histories that can be traced back to their Latin etymons. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to highlight the process by which meaning instantiated itself in these words’ formation and to discuss how semantic change installed subsequently in them. As this paper shows, the aforementioned words have been, in different past, synchronizes, created, and undergone changes of meanings by metaphor and metonymy. Besides, it is argued here that semantic change takes place due to external causes, such as generalization and specialization of meaning. It happens when a specialized use of a lexical item, restricted to a particular linguistic group, is adopted by other groups, having its meaning generalized by them. In these processes, the etymological idea of the word is generally lost, which gains, in the new group, less specific meaning in relation to its etymology, sometimes with no relation to the original idea. As a final point, it is claimed that both the creation of a lexical item and its change of meaning involve pragmatic goals, such as the need the language users have to express a new meaning related to a certain reality in the empirical world.

Keywords: Brazilian biomes, metaphor and metonymy, Portuguese lexicon, semantic change

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15245 Establishing Multi-Leveled Computability as a Living-System Evolutionary Context

Authors: Ron Cottam, Nils Langloh, Willy Ranson, Roger Vounckx

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We start by formally describing the requirements for environmental-reaction survival computation in a natural temporally-demanding medium, and develop this into a more general model of the evolutionary context as a computational machine. The effect of this development is to replace deterministic logic by a modified form which exhibits a continuous range of dimensional fractal diffuseness between the isolation of perfectly ordered localization and the extended communication associated with nonlocality as represented by pure causal chaos. We investigate the appearance of life and consciousness in the derived general model, and propose a representation of Nature within which all localizations have the character of quasi-quantal entities. We compare our conclusions with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and nonlocal teleportation, and maintain that computability is the principal influence on evolution in the model we propose.

Keywords: computability, evolution, life, localization, modeling, nonlocality

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15244 Verification and Proposal of Information Processing Model Using EEG-Based Brain Activity Monitoring

Authors: Toshitaka Higashino, Naoki Wakamiya

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Human beings perform a task by perceiving information from outside, recognizing them, and responding them. There have been various attempts to analyze and understand internal processes behind the reaction to a given stimulus by conducting psychological experiments and analysis from multiple perspectives. Among these, we focused on Model Human Processor (MHP). However, it was built based on psychological experiments and thus the relation with brain activity was unclear so far. To verify the validity of the MHP and propose our model from a viewpoint of neuroscience, EEG (Electroencephalography) measurements are performed during experiments in this study. More specifically, first, experiments were conducted where Latin alphabet characters were used as visual stimuli. In addition to response time, ERPs (event-related potentials) such as N100 and P300 were measured by using EEG. By comparing cycle time predicted by the MHP and latency of ERPs, it was found that N100, related to perception of stimuli, appeared at the end of the perceptual processor. Furthermore, by conducting an additional experiment, it was revealed that P300, related to decision making, appeared during the response decision process, not at the end. Second, by experiments using Japanese Hiragana characters, i.e. Japan's own phonetic symbols, those findings were confirmed. Finally, Japanese Kanji characters were used as more complicated visual stimuli. A Kanji character usually has several readings and several meanings. Despite the difference, a reading-related task and a meaning-related task exhibited similar results, meaning that they involved similar information processing processes of the brain. Based on those results, our model was proposed which reflects response time and ERP latency. It consists of three processors: the perception processor from an input of a stimulus to appearance of N100, the cognitive processor from N100 to P300, and the decision-action processor from P300 to response. Using our model, an application system which reflects brain activity can be established.

Keywords: brain activity, EEG, information processing model, model human processor

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15243 Examining K-12 In-Service Teachers’ Comfort Level with the Social Model of Disability and Its Impact on Inclusive Measures in the Classroom

Authors: Frederic Fovet

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Inclusive provisions have been statutorily mandated in North America for now over two decades. Despite a growing body of literature around inclusive practices, many in-service teachers continue to express difficulties when it comes to tangible implementation of inclusion in the everyday classroom. While there is debate around the various forms inclusion can take (UDL, differentiation, personalization, etc.), there appears to be a more significant hurdle in getting in-service teachers to fully embrace inclusion both as a goal and a practice. This paper investigates teachers’ degree of awareness around the Social Model of Disability. It argues that teachers often lack basic awareness of disability studies, more particularly of the Social Model of Disability, and that this has a direct impact on their capacity to conceptualize and embrace inclusion. The paper draws from the researcher’s experience as a graduate instructor with in-service teachers, as well as from his experience as a consultant working with schools and school boards. The methodology chosen here is phenomenology, and it draws on tools such as auto-ethnography. The paper opens a discussion around the reform and transformation of pre-service teacher training. It argues that disability studies should be integrated into teacher training as it plays a key role in having teachers develop a theoretical understanding of disability as a social construct.

Keywords: disability, K-12, inclusion, social model, in-service teachers

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15242 A Partially Accelerated Life Test Planning with Competing Risks and Linear Degradation Path under Tampered Failure Rate Model

Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: cause of failure, linear degradation path, reliability function, expectation-maximization algorithm, intensity, masked data

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15241 The Use of Stroke Journey Map in Improving Patients' Perceived Knowledge in Acute Stroke Unit

Authors: C. S. Chen, F. Y. Hui, B. S. Farhana, J. De Leon

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Introduction: Stroke can lead to long-term disability, affecting one’s quality of life. Providing stroke education to patient and family members is essential to optimize stroke recovery and prevent recurrent stroke. Currently, nurses conduct stroke education by handing out pamphlets and explaining their contents to patients. However, this is not always effective as nurses have varying levels of knowledge and depth of content discussed with the patient may not be consistent. With the advancement of information technology, health education is increasingly being disseminated via electronic software and studies have shown this to have benefitted patients. Hence, a multi-disciplinary team consisting of doctors, nurses and allied health professionals was formed to create the stroke journey map software to deliver consistent and concise stroke education. Research Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of using a stroke journey map software in improving patients’ perceived knowledge in the acute stroke unit during hospitalization. Methods: Patients admitted to the acute stroke unit were given stroke journey map software during patient education. The software consists of 31 interactive slides that are brightly coloured and 4 videos, based on input provided by the multi-disciplinary team. Participants were then assessed with pre-and-post survey questionnaires before and after viewing the software. The questionnaire consists of 10 questions with a 5-point Likert scale which sums up to a total score of 50. The inclusion criteria are patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke and are cognitively alert and oriented. This study was conducted between May 2017 to October 2017. Participation was voluntary. Results: A total of 33 participants participated in the study. The results demonstrated that the use of a stroke journey map as a stroke education medium was effective in improving patients’ perceived knowledge. A comparison of pre- and post-implementation data of stroke journey map revealed an overall mean increase in patients’ perceived knowledge from 24.06 to 40.06. The data is further broken down to evaluate patients’ perceived knowledge in 3 domains: (1) Understanding of disease process; (2) Management and treatment plans; (3) Post-discharge care. Each domain saw an increase in mean score from 10.7 to 16.2, 6.9 to 11.9 and 6.6 to 11.7 respectively. Project Impact: The implementation of stroke journey map has a positive impact in terms of (1) Increasing patient’s perceived knowledge which could contribute to greater empowerment of health; (2) Reducing need for stroke education material printouts making it environmentally friendly; (3) Decreasing time nurses spent on giving education resulting in more time to attend to patients’ needs. Conclusion: This study has demonstrated the benefit of using stroke journey map as a platform for stroke education. Overall, it has increased patients’ perceived knowledge in understanding their disease process, the management and treatment plans as well as the discharge process.

Keywords: acute stroke, education, ischemic stroke, knowledge, stroke

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15240 Investigation of Extreme Gradient Boosting Model Prediction of Soil Strain-Shear Modulus

Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Reza Bushehri

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One of the principal parameters defining the clay soil dynamic response is the strain-shear modulus relation. Predicting the strain and, subsequently, shear modulus reduction of the soil is essential for performance analysis of structures exposed to earthquake and dynamic loadings. Many soil properties affect soil’s dynamic behavior. In order to capture those effects, in this study, a database containing 1193 data points consists of maximum shear modulus, strain, moisture content, initial void ratio, plastic limit, liquid limit, initial confining pressure resulting from dynamic laboratory testing of 21 clays is collected for predicting the shear modulus vs. strain curve of soil. A model based on an extreme gradient boosting technique is proposed. A tree-structured parzan estimator hyper-parameter tuning algorithm is utilized simultaneously to find the best hyper-parameters for the model. The performance of the model is compared to the existing empirical equations using the coefficient of correlation and root mean square error.

Keywords: XGBoost, hyper-parameter tuning, soil shear modulus, dynamic response

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15239 Developing an Edutainment Game for Children with ADHD Based on SAwD and VCIA Model

Authors: Bruno Gontijo Batista

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This paper analyzes how the Socially Aware Design (SAwD) and the Value-oriented and Culturally Informed Approach (VCIA) design model can be used to develop an edutainment game for children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The SAwD approach seeks a design that considers new dimensions in human-computer interaction, such as culture, aesthetics, emotional and social aspects of the user's everyday experience. From this perspective, the game development was VCIA model-based, including the users in the design process through participatory methodologies, considering their behavioral patterns, culture, and values. This is because values, beliefs, and behavioral patterns influence how technology is understood and used and the way it impacts people's lives. This model can be applied at different stages of design, which goes from explaining the problem and organizing the requirements to the evaluation of the prototype and the final solution. Thus, this paper aims to understand how this model can be used in the development of an edutainment game for children with ADHD. In the area of education and learning, children with ADHD have difficulties both in behavior and in school performance, as they are easily distracted, which is reflected both in classes and on tests. Therefore, they must perform tasks that are exciting or interesting for them, once the pleasure center in the brain is activated, it reinforces the center of attention, leaving the child more relaxed and focused. In this context, serious games have been used as part of the treatment of ADHD in children aiming to improve focus and attention, stimulate concentration, as well as be a tool for improving learning in areas such as math and reading, combining education and entertainment (edutainment). Thereby, as a result of the research, it was developed, in a participatory way, applying the VCIA model, an edutainment game prototype, for a mobile platform, for children between 8 and 12 years old.

Keywords: ADHD, edutainment, SAwD, VCIA

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15238 Broadening the Roles of Masjid: Reviving Prophetic Holistic Model in Fostering Islamic Education and Arabic Language in South-Western Nigeria

Authors: Ahmad Tijani Surajudeen, Muhammad Zahiri Awang Mat, Aliy Abdulwahid Adebisi

Abstract:

With arrival of Islam in the South-Western Nigeria in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries, various masājid established in different parts of the area played vital roles towards the betterment and unity of the Muslims. However, despite the fact that the masājid in the South-Western part of Nigeria contributed immensely to the spiritual and educational enhancement of the Muslims, it has not fully captured the holistic educational roles as a unique model used by the Prophet (S.A.W). Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to investigate and broaden the roles of masjid towards its compartmentalized and holistic contributions among the Muslims in the south-western Nigeria. The findings from the paper have identified five holistic roles of masjid, namely, spiritual, intellectual, physical, social and emotional contributions which have been exemplified in the prophetic model of masjid. The paper has argued that the five factors must be unreservedly unified towards the betterment of the Muslims and enhancement of Islamic education and Arabic Language in the South-Western Nigeria. However, the challenges of masjid management in the South-Western Nigeria are the main hindrance in achieving the holistic roles of masjid. It is thereby suggested that, the management of masjid should take the identified prophetic model of masjid into account in order to positively improve the affairs of Muslims as well as promoting the teaching and learning of Islamic education and Arabic language among the Muslims in the South-Western Nigeria.

Keywords: worship, Islamic education, Arabic language, prophetic holistic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 326
15237 Mathematical Modelling of Human Cardiovascular-Respiratory System Response to Exercise in Rwanda

Authors: Jean Marie Ntaganda, Froduald Minani, Wellars Banzi, Lydie Mpinganzima, Japhet Niyobuhungiro, Jean Bosco Gahutu, Vincent Dusabejambo, Immaculate Kambutse

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a nonlinear dynamic model for the interactive mechanism of the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The model is designed and analyzed for human during physical exercises. In order to verify the adequacy of the designed model, data collected in Rwanda are used for validation. We have simulated the impact of heart rate and alveolar ventilation as controls of cardiovascular and respiratory system respectively to steady state response of the main cardiovascular hemodynamic quantities i.e., systemic arterial and venous blood pressures, arterial oxygen partial pressure and arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure, to the stabilised values of controls. We used data collected in Rwanda for both male and female during physical activities. We obtained a good agreement with physiological data in the literature. The model may represent an important tool to improve the understanding of exercise physiology.

Keywords: exercise, cardiovascular/respiratory, hemodynamic quantities, numerical simulation, physical activity, sportsmen in Rwanda, system

Procedia PDF Downloads 237
15236 The Problems of Women over 65 with Incontinence Diagnosis: A Case Study in Turkey

Authors: Birsel Canan Demirbag, Kıymet Yesilcicek Calik, Hacer Kobya Bulut

Abstract:

Objective: This study was conducted to evaluate the problems of women over 65 with incontinence diagnosis. Methods: This descriptive study was conducted with women over 65 with incontinence diagnosis in four Family Health Centers in a city in Eastern Black Sea region between November 1, and December 20, 2015. 203, 107, 178, 180 women over 65 were registered in these centers and 262 had incontinence diagnosis at least once and had an ongoing complaint. 177 women were volunteers for the study. During home visits and using face-to-face survey methodology, participants were given socio-demographic characteristics survey, Sandvik severity scale, Incontinence Quality of Life Scale, Urogenital Distress Inventory and a questionnaire including challenges experienced due to incontinence developed by the researcher. Data were analyzed with SPSS program using percentages, numbers, Chi-square, Man-Whitney U and t test with 95% confidence interval and a significance level p <0.05. Findings: 67 ± 1.4 was the mean age, 2.05 ± 0.04 was parity, 44.5 ± 2.12 was menopause age, 66.3% were primary school graduates, 45.7% had deceased spouse, 44.4% lived in a large family, 67.2% had their own room, 77.8% had income, 89.2% could meet self- care, 73.2% had a diagnosis of mixed incontinence, 87.5% suffered for 6-20 years % 78.2 had diuretics, antidepressants and heart medicines, 20.5% had urinary fecal cases, 80.5% had bladder training at least once, 90.1% didn’t have bladder diary calendar/control training programs, 31.1% had hysterectomy for prolapse, 97.1'i% was treated with lower urinary tract infection at least once, 66.3% saw a doctor to get drug in the last three months, 76.2 could not go out alone, 99.2 % had at least one chronic disease, 87.6 % had constipation complain, 2.9% had chronic cough., 45.1% fell due to a sudden rise for toilet. Incontinence Impact Questionnaire Average score was (QOL) 54.3 ± 21.1, Sandvik score was 12.1 ± 2.5, Urogenital Distress Inventory was 47.7 ± 9.2. Difficulties experienced due to incontinence were 99.5% feeling of unhappiness, 67.1% constant feeling of urine smell due to failing to change briefs frequently, % 87.2 move away from social life, 89.7 unable to use pad, 99.2% feeling of disturbing households / other individuals, 87.5% feel dizziness/fall due to sudden rise, 87.4% feeling of others’ imperceptions about the situation, % 94.3 insomnia, 78.2 lack of assistance, 84.7% couldn’t afford urine protection briefs. Results: With this study, it was found out that there were a lot of unsolved issues at individual and community level affecting the life quality of women with incontinence. In accordance with this common problem in women, to facilitate daily life it is obvious that regular home care training programs at institutional level in our country will be effective.

Keywords: health problems, incontinence, incontinence quality of life questionnaire, old age, urinary urogenital distress inventory, Sandviken severity, women

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15235 Determinants of Rural Household Effective Demand for Biogas Technology in Southern Ethiopia

Authors: Mesfin Nigussie

Abstract:

The objectives of the study were to identify factors affecting rural households’ willingness to install biogas plant and amount willingness to pay in order to examine determinants of effective demand for biogas technology. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select 120 respondents for the study. The binary probit regression model was employed to identify factors affecting rural households’ decision to install biogas technology. The probit model result revealed that household size, total household income, access to extension services related to biogas, access to credit service, proximity to water sources, perception of households about the quality of biogas, perception index about attributes of biogas, perception of households about installation cost of biogas and availability of energy source were statistically significant in determining household’s decision to install biogas. Tobit model was employed to examine determinants of rural household’s amount of willingness to pay. Based on the model result, age of the household head, total annual income of the household, access to extension service and availability of other energy source were significant variables that influence willingness to pay. Providing due considerations for extension services, availability of credit or subsidy, improving the quality of biogas technology design and minimizing cost of installation by using locally available materials are the main suggestions of this research that help to create effective demand for biogas technology.

Keywords: biogas technology, effective demand, probit model, tobit model, willingnes to pay

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15234 A Framework for ERP Project Evaluation Based on BSC Model: A Study in Iran

Authors: Mohammad Reza Ostad Ali Naghi Kashani, Esfanji Elia

Abstract:

Nowadays, the amounts of companies which tend to have an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) application are increasing particularly in developing countries like Iran. ERP projects are expensive, time consuming, and complex, in addition the failure rate is high among these projects. It is important to know whether these projects could meet their goals or not. Furthermore, the area which should be improved should be identified. In this paper we made a framework to evaluate ERP projects success implementation. First, based on literature review we made a framework based on BSC model, financial, customer, processes, learning and knowledge, because of the importance of change management it was added to model. Then an organization was divided in three layers. We choose corporate, managerial, and operational levels. Then to find criteria to assess each aspect, we use Delphi method in two rounds. And for the second round we made a questionnaire and did some statistical tasks on them. Based on the statistical results some of them are accepted and others are rejected.

Keywords: ERP, BSC, ERP project evaluation, IT projects

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15233 MULTI-FLGANs: Multi-Distributed Adversarial Networks for Non-Independent and Identically Distributed Distribution

Authors: Akash Amalan, Rui Wang, Yanqi Qiao, Emmanouil Panaousis, Kaitai Liang

Abstract:

Federated learning is an emerging concept in the domain of distributed machine learning. This concept has enabled General Adversarial Networks (GANs) to benefit from the rich distributed training data while preserving privacy. However, in a non-IID setting, current federated GAN architectures are unstable, struggling to learn the distinct features, and vulnerable to mode collapse. In this paper, we propose an architecture MULTI-FLGAN to solve the problem of low-quality images, mode collapse, and instability for non-IID datasets. Our results show that MULTI-FLGAN is four times as stable and performant (i.e., high inception score) on average over 20 clients compared to baseline FLGAN.

Keywords: federated learning, generative adversarial network, inference attack, non-IID data distribution

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15232 Dynamic Effects of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, International Trade and Urbanization on Environmental Degradation in Nigeria

Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

Abstract:

Motivation: A crucial but difficult goal for governments and policymakers in Nigeria in recent years has been the sustainability of economic growth. This goal must be accomplished by regulating or lowering greenhouse gas emissions, which calls for switching to a low- or zero-carbon production system. The lack of in-depth empirical studies on the environmental impact of socioeconomic variables on Nigeria and a number of unresolved issues from earlier research is what led to the current study. Objective: This study fills an important empirical gap by investigating the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and the long and short-run dynamic impact of socioeconomic variables on ecological sustainability in Nigeria. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2020 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique in the presence of structural breaks were adopted for this study. Results: The empirical findings support the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Nigeria in the long and short run. Energy consumption and total import exacerbate environmental deterioration in the long and short run, whereas total export improves environmental quality in the long and short run. Financial development, which contributed to a conspicuous decrease in the level of environmental destruction in the long run, escalated it in the short run. In contrast, urbanization caused a significant increase in environmental damage in the long run but motivated a decrease in biodiversity loss in the short run. Implications: The government, policymakers, and all energy stakeholders should take additional measures to ensure the implementation and diversification of energy sources to accommodate more renewable energy sources that emit less carbon in order to promote efficiency in Nigeria's production processes and lower carbon emissions. In order to promote the production and trade of environmentally friendly goods, they should also revise and strengthen environmental policies. With affordable, dependable, and sustainable energy use for higher productivity and inclusive growth, Nigeria will be able to achieve its long-term development goals of good health and wellbeing.

Keywords: economic growth, energy consumption, environmental degradation, environmental Kuznets curve, urbanization, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 47