Search results for: trends and variability of rainfall
2656 Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Mapping of Malaria in Thailand
Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit
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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4462655 Forecasting Nokoué Lake Water Levels Using Long Short-Term Memory Network
Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin
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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake
Procedia PDF Downloads 572654 Changing Trends and Attitudes towards Online Assessment
Authors: Renáta Nagy, Alexandra Csongor, Jon Marquette, Vilmos Warta
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The presentation aims at eliciting insight into the results of ongoing research regarding evolving trends and attitudes towards online assessment of English for Medical Purposes. The focus pinpointsonline as one of the most trending formsavailable during the global pandemic. The study was first initiated in 2019 in which its main target was to reveal the intriguing question of students’ and assessors’ attitudes towards online assessment. The research questions the attitudes towards the latest trends, possible online task types, their advantagesand disadvantages through an in-depth experimental process currently undergoing implementation. Material and methods include surveys, needs and wants analysis, and thorough investigations regarding candidates’ and assessors’ attitudes towards online tests in the field of Medicine. The examined test tasks include various online tests drafted in both English and Hungarian by student volunteers at the Medical School of the University of Pécs, Hungary. Over 400 respondents from more than 28 countries participated in the survey, which gives us an international and intercultural insight into how students with different cultural and educational background deal with the evolving online world. The results show the pandemic’s impact, which brought the slumbering online world of assessing roaring alive, fully operational andnowbearsphenomenalrelevancein today’s global education. Undeniably, the results can be used as a perspective in a vast array of contents. The survey hypothesized the generation of the 21st century expect everything readily available online, however, questions whether they are ready for this challenge are lurking in the background.Keywords: assessment, changes, english, ESP, online assessment, online, trends
Procedia PDF Downloads 1942653 Climate Teleconnections and Their Influence on the Spread of Dengue
Authors: Edilene Machado, Carolina Karoly, Amanda Britz, Luciane Salvi, Claudineia Brazil
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Climate teleconnections refer to the climatic relationships between geographically distant regions, where changes in one location can influence weather patterns in another. These connections can occur through atmospheric and oceanic processes, leading to variations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic elements. Studying teleconnections is crucial for better understanding the mechanisms that govern global climate and the potential consequences of climate change. A notable example of a teleconnection is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which involves the interaction between the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. During El Niño episodes, there is anomalous warming of the surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific, resulting in significant changes in global climate patterns. These changes can affect rainfall distribution, wind patterns, and temperatures in different parts of the world. The cold phase of ENSO, known as La Niña, is often associated with reduced precipitation and below-average temperatures in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Therefore, the objective of this research is to identify patterns between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in their different phases and dengue transmission. Meteorological data and dengue case records for the city of Porto Alegre, in the southern region of Brazil, were used for the development of this research. The study highlighted that the highest incidence of dengue cases occurred during the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Keywords: climate patterns, climate teleconnections, climate variability, dengue, El Niño-Southern oscillation
Procedia PDF Downloads 862652 Climate Change Vulnerability and Agrarian Communities: Insights from the Composite Vulnerability Index of Indian States of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka
Authors: G. Sridevi, Amalendu Jyotishi, Sushanta Mahapatra, G. Jagadeesh, Satyasiba Bedamatta
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Climate change is a main challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for millions of people in India. Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on climate and weather conditions. Among India’s population of more than one billion people, about 68% are directly or indirectly involved in the agricultural sector. This sector is particularly vulnerable to present-day climate variability. In this contest this paper examines the Socio-economic and climate analytical study of the vulnerability index in Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Using secondary data; it examines the vulnerability through five different sub-indicator of socio-demographic, agriculture, occupational, common property resource (CPR), and climate in respective states among different districts. Data used in this paper has taken from different sources, like census in India 2011, Directorate of Economics and Statistics of respective states governments. Rainfall data was collected from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In order to capture the vulnerability from two different states the composite vulnerability index (CVI) was developed and used. This indicates the vulnerability situation of different districts under two states. The study finds that Adilabad district in Andhra Pradesh and Chamarajanagar in Karnataka had highest level of vulnerability while Hyderabad and Bangalore in respective states have least level of vulnerability.Keywords: vulnerability, agriculture, climate change, global warming
Procedia PDF Downloads 4552651 Wharton's Jelly-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells Modulate Heart Rate Variability and Improve Baroreflex Sensitivity in Septic Rats
Authors: Cóndor C. José, Rodrigues E. Camila, Noronha L. Irene, Dos Santos Fernando, Irigoyen M. Claudia, Andrade Lúcia
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Sepsis induces alterations in hemodynamics and autonomic nervous system (ASN). The autonomic activity can be calculated by measuring heart rate variability (HRV) that represents the complex interplay between ASN and cardiac pacemaker cells. Wharton’s jelly mesenchymal stem cells (WJ-MSCs) are known to express genes and secreted factors involved in neuroprotective and immunological effects, also to improve the survival in experimental septic animals. We hypothesized, that WJ-MSCs present an important role in the autonomic activity and in the hemodynamic effects in a cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) model of sepsis. Methods: We used flow cytometry to evaluate WJ-MSCs phenotypes. We divided Wistar rats into groups: sham (shamoperated); CLP; and CLP+MSC (106 WJ-MSCs, i.p., 6 h after CLP). At 24 h post-CLP, we recorded the systolic arterial pressure (SAP) and heart rate (HR) over 20 min. The spectral analysis of HR and SAP; also the spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity (measure by bradycardic and tachycardic responses) were evaluated after recording. The one-way ANOVA and the post hoc Student– Newman– Keuls tests (P< 0.05) were used to data comparison Results: WJ-MSCs were negative for CD3, CD34, CD45 and HLA-DR, whereas they were positive for CD73, CD90 and CD105. The CLP group showed a reduction in variance of overall variability and in high-frequency power of HR (heart parasympathetic activity); furthermore, there is a low-frequency reduction of SAP (blood vessels sympathetic activity). The treatment with WJ-MSCs improved the autonomic activity by increasing the high and lowfrequency power; and restore the baroreflex sensitive. Conclusions: WJ-MSCs attenuate the impairment of autonomic control of the heart and vessels and might therefore play a protective role in sepsis. (Supported by FAPESP).Keywords: baroreflex response, heart rate variability, sepsis, wharton’s jelly-derived mesenchymal stem cells
Procedia PDF Downloads 2942650 Diurnal Circle of Rainfall and Convective Properties over West and Central Africa
Authors: Balogun R. Ayodeji, Adefisan E. Adesanya, Adeyewa Z. Debo, E. C. Okogbue
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The need to investigate diurnal weather circles in West Africa is coined in the fact that complex interactions often results from diurnal weather patterns. This study investigates diurnal circles of wind, rainfall and convective properties using six (6) hour interval data from the ERA-Interim and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The seven distinct zones, used in this work and classified as rainforest (west-coast, dry, Nigeria-Cameroon), Savannah (Nigeria, and Central Africa and South Sudan (CASS)), Sudano-Sahel, and Sahel, were clearly indicated by the rainfall pattern in each zones. Results showed that the land‐ocean warming contrast was more strongly sensitive to seasonal cycle and has been very weak during March-May (MAM) but clearly spelt out during June-September (JJAS). Dipoles of wind convergence/divergence and wet/dry precipitation, between CASS and Nigeria Savannah zones, were identified in morning and evening hours of MAM, whereas distinct night and day anomaly, in the same location of CASS, were found to be consistent during the JJAS season. Diurnal variation of convective properties showed that stratiform precipitation, due to the extremely low occurrence of flashcount climatology, was dominant during morning hours for both MAM and JJAS than other periods of the day. On the other hand, diurnal variation of the system sizes showed that small system sizes were most dominant during the day time periods for both MAM and JJAS, whereas larger system sizes were frequent during the evening, night, and morning hours. The locations of flashcount and system sizes agreed with earlier results that morning and day-time hours were dominated by stratiform precipitation and small system sizes respectively. Most results clearly showed that the eastern locations of Sudano and Sahel were consistently dry because rainfall and precipitation features were predominantly few. System sizes greater than or equal to 800 km² were found in the western axis of the Sudano and Sahel zones, whereas the eastern axis, particularly in the Sahel zone, had minimal occurrences of small/large system sizes. From the results of locations of extreme systems, flashcount greater than 275 in one single system was never observed during the morning (6Z) diurnal, whereas, the evening (18Z) diurnal had the most frequent cases (at least 8) of flashcount exceeding 275 in one single system. Results presented had shown the importance of diurnal variation in understanding precipitation, flashcount, system sizes patterns at diurnal scales, and understanding land-ocean contrast, precipitation, and wind field anomaly at diurnal scales.Keywords: convective properties, diurnal circle, flashcount, system sizes
Procedia PDF Downloads 1252649 A Questionnaire-Based Survey: Therapists Response towards Upper Limb Disorder Learning Tool
Authors: Noor Ayuni Che Zakaria, Takashi Komeda, Cheng Yee Low, Kaoru Inoue, Fazah Akhtar Hanapiah
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Previous studies have shown that there are arguments regarding the reliability and validity of the Ashworth and Modified Ashworth Scale towards evaluating patients diagnosed with upper limb disorders. These evaluations depended on the raters’ experiences. This initiated us to develop an upper limb disorder part-task trainer that is able to simulate consistent upper limb disorders, such as spasticity and rigidity signs, based on the Modified Ashworth Scale to improve the variability occurring between raters and intra-raters themselves. By providing consistent signs, novice therapists would be able to increase training frequency and exposure towards various levels of signs. A total of 22 physiotherapists and occupational therapists participated in the study. The majority of the therapists agreed that with current therapy education, they still face problems with inter-raters and intra-raters variability (strongly agree 54%; n = 12/22, agree 27%; n = 6/22) in evaluating patients’ conditions. The therapists strongly agreed (72%; n = 16/22) that therapy trainees needed to increase their frequency of training; therefore believe that our initiative to develop an upper limb disorder training tool will help in improving the clinical education field (strongly agree and agree 63%; n = 14/22).Keywords: upper limb disorder, clinical education tool, inter/intra-raters variability, spasticity, modified Ashworth scale
Procedia PDF Downloads 3072648 Analyzing the Climate Change Impact and Farmer's Adaptability Strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Sonia
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The agriculture sector is deemed more vulnerable to climate change as its variation can directly affect the crop’s productivity, but farmers’ adaptation strategies play a vital role in climate change-agriculture relationship. Therefore, this research has been undertaken to assess the Climate Change impact on wheat productivity and farmers’ adaptability strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. The panel dataset was analyzed to gauge the impact of changing climate variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on wheat productivity from 1985 to 2015. Amid the study period, the fixed effect estimates confirmed an inverse relationship of temperature and rainfall on the wheat yield. The impact of temperature is observed to be detrimental as compared to the rainfall, causing 0.07 units reduction in the production of wheat with 1C upsurge in temperature. On the flip side, humidity revealed a positive association with the wheat productivity by confirming that high humidity could be beneficial to the production of the crop over time. Thus, this study ensures significant nexus between agricultural production and climatic parameters. However, the farming community in the underlying study area has limited knowledge about the adaptation strategies to lessen the detrimental impact of changing climate on crop yield. It is recommended that farmers should be well equipped with training and advanced agricultural management practices under the realm of climate change. Moreover, innovative technologies pertinent to the agriculture system should be encouraged to handle the challenges arising due to variations in climate factors.Keywords: climate change, fixed effect model, panel data, wheat productivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 1142647 Hypergraph Models of Metabolism
Authors: Nicole Pearcy, Jonathan J. Crofts, Nadia Chuzhanova
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In this paper, we employ a directed hypergraph model to investigate the extent to which environmental variability influences the set of available biochemical reactions within a living cell. Such an approach avoids the limitations of the usual complex network formalism by allowing for the multilateral relationships (i.e. connections involving more than two nodes) that naturally occur within many biological processes. More specifically, we extend the concept of network reciprocity to complex hyper-networks, thus enabling us to characterize a network in terms of the existence of mutual hyper-connections, which may be considered a proxy for metabolic network complexity. To demonstrate these ideas, we study 115 metabolic hyper-networks of bacteria, each of which can be classified into one of 6 increasingly varied habitats. In particular, we found that reciprocity increases significantly with increased environmental variability, supporting the view that organism adaptability leads to increased complexities in the resultant biochemical networks.Keywords: complexity, hypergraphs, reciprocity, metabolism
Procedia PDF Downloads 2902646 Energy Policy and Interactions with Politics and Economics
Authors: A. Beril Tugrul
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Demand on production and thereby the global need of energy is growing continuously. Each country has different trends on energy demand and supply according to their geopolitical and geographical locations, underground reserves, weather conditions and level of industrialization. Conventional energy resources such as oil, gas and coal –in other words fossil resources- remain dominant on primary energy supply in spite of causing of environmental problems. Energy supply and demand securities are essential within the energy importing and exporting countries. This concept affected all sectors, but especially impressed on political aspects of the countries and also global economic views.Keywords: energy policy, energy economics, energy strategy, global trends, petro-dollar recycling
Procedia PDF Downloads 4692645 Analysis of Rainfall Hazard in North East of Algeria
Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi
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The design of sewerage systems is directly related to rainfall, which has a highly random character. Showers are usually described by three characteristics: intensity, volume and duration. Several studies considered only in two of the three models. The objective of our work is to perform an analysis of the impact of three variables on put in charge of sewerage system, responsible for misbehavior, origin of urban flooding. 30 events were considered events for the longest, most rushed and most intense period which runs from 1986 -2001. We built the IDF curves and heavy projects double symmetrical triangles associated with this selection. A simulation of the operation, with the model canoe, sewage from the city of Annaba (Algeria) in the three rain solicitation project, double triangles associated with events considered. It appears that the sewage of the city of Annaba, in terms of charging, is much more sensitive to rain most precipitous, and the more intense causing loadings and last the longest. Further analysis of all the rain and the field measurements are underway to confirm the test simulations.Keywords: intensity, volume, duration, sewerage, design, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4412644 Trends and Perspectives of Agrotourism Development in Georgia
Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili
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The development of agrotourism in Georgia has significant potential. The trend of population growth and demand for agrotourism products makes the interest and importance of the development of this field even more relevant. The article studies the trends in the development of agrotourism in Georgia; SWOT analysis reveals the potential for the development of agrotourism and assesses the perspectives, examines the factors hindering the development of agrotourism, assesses the role of the state in the development of agrotourism. Objectives: The purpose of the study is to determine the development trends of agrotourism in Georgia and to develop recommendations for prospective directions based on the assessment of the field's potential. Methodologies: Research methods are used: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison, statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend) and other methods, as well as SWOT analysis. Contributions: A positive trend in the development of agrotourism has been revealed. It is also shown that the demand for agrotourism products is growing. The agro touristic potential of Georgia was assessed and prospective directions for the development of the field have been determined. Conclusions: are drawn on the problems identified in the work and recommendations are proposed on ways to effectively use the potential opportunities of agrotourism and ways of long-term development.Keywords: agrotourism, agrotourism products, agrotourism potential, development prospects.
Procedia PDF Downloads 832643 The Fall of Cultural Consumption in Spain during the Economic Crisis of 2008: Lessons for the Upcoming Crisis
Authors: Pau Rausell-Koster, Jordi Sanjuan-Belda
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The economic crisis of 2008 had a special impact on cultural consumption in Spain. It fell by almost 30% in a few years, and its share of total family spending decreased from 3.19% in 2007 to 2.38% in 2015. In 2017, unlike other indicators, cultural consumption levels were still far from recovering their pre-crisis values. In times of economic difficulties, the satisfaction of primary subsistence needs takes priority over that of social, cultural and experiential needs, among which cultural consumption would mostly be framed. However, its evolution cannot be attributed exclusively to macroeconomic trends. In parallel to these, technological advances mainly related to the Internet have been disseminated in recent years, which have a very marked impact on the consumption patterns of some cultural sectors. Thus, the aim of this study is to define the causes of the decline in cultural consumption in Spain in recent years, and analyse what type of products, territories and population profiles suffered it especially. From the data analysis of the Family Budget Survey, the study seeks to improve the understanding of the determinants of cultural consumption and their behaviour in the face of macroeconomic trends, as well as identify and extract some policy implications regarding to the upcoming crisis caused by COVID-19.Keywords: consume patterns, cultural consumption, economic crisis, economic trends
Procedia PDF Downloads 1232642 Determination of the Runoff Coefficient in Urban Regions, an Example from Haifa, Israel
Authors: Ayal Siegel, Moshe Inbar, Amatzya Peled
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This study examined the characteristic runoff coefficient in different urban areas. The main area studied is located in the city of Haifa, northern Israel. Haifa spreads out eastward from the Mediterranean seacoast to the top of the Carmel Mountain range with an elevation of 300 m. above sea level. For this research project, four watersheds were chosen, each characterizing a different part of the city; 1) Upper Hadar, a spacious suburb on the upper mountain side; 2) Qiryat Eliezer, a crowded suburb on a level plane of the watershed; 3) Technion, a large technical research university which is located halfway between the top of the mountain range and the coast line. 4) Keret, a remote suburb, on the southwestern outskirts of Haifa. In all of the watersheds found suitable, instruments were installed to continuously measure the water level flowing in the channels. Three rainfall gauges scattered in the study area complete the hydrological requirements for this research project. The runoff coefficient C in peak discharge events was determined by the Rational Formula. The main research finding is the significant relationship between the intensity of rainfall, and the impervious area which is connected to the drainage system of the watershed. For less intense rainfall, the full potential of the connected impervious area will not be exploited. As a result, the runoff coefficient value decreases as do the peak discharge rate and the runoff yield from the storm event. The research results will enable application to other areas by means of hydrological model to be be set up on GIS software that will make it possible to estimate the runoff coefficient of any given city watershed.Keywords: runoff coefficient, rational method, time of concentration, connected impervious area.
Procedia PDF Downloads 3462641 Bilateral Trade Costs Analysis of Policy Barriers for Growth Oriented Strategies in Exports
Authors: Shabana Noureen, Zafar Mahmood
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Economies consistently engage in trade across borders and face tariff, non-tariff barriers and other quotas that constitute trade costs. The trade costs imposed by policy barriers on exports are considered an impediment in the export growth rate. This work aims to measure over-year trends in total and bilateral trade costs and their trends in relevance to policy barriers (tariff and non-tariff). The analysis through the micro-founded theoretically based gravity model showed that the total trade costs have a general decreasing trend in the world while in the case of developing countries, the rate by which these trends decline is very low. Bilateral trade cost estimates associated with the policy barriers represent that the non-tariff barriers in a developing country have a major role in sustaining the high trade costs as compared to the tariff barriers. This ultimately leads to a low net declining rate. This work emphasizes that for developing countries the non-tariff barriers are a major factor that renders their exports and to be uncompetitive in the world market.Keywords: trade costs, policy barriers, tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers, trade policies, export growth
Procedia PDF Downloads 2542640 Indigenous Healers and Indigenous Trauma: Healing at the Intersections of Colonial, Intergenerational, and Individual Trauma for Indigenous Peoples in Canada
Authors: Suzanne L. Stewart, Mikaela D. Gabriel
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Background: Indigenous People face multiple barriers to successful life transitions, including housing, employment, education, and health. Current statistical trends paint devastating life transitions for Indigenous Peoples, but colonization and its intergenerational impacts are typically lacking as the crucial context in which these trends occur. This presentation will illustrate the massive impact of colonization on Indigenous Peoples; its intergenerational transmission, and how it impacts Indigenous clients seeking mental health treatment today. Methods: A qualitative, narrative inquiry methodology was used to honour Indigenous storytelling and knowledge transmission. Indigenous Elders, outreach workers, and homeless clients were interviewed and narratively analyzed for in-depth trends and themes. Impact: This research provides a wealth of in-depth information as to the life transition needs of Indigenous clients, identify the systemic impacts of colonization to the health and wellbeing of Indigenous People, and strategies for mental health treatment.Keywords: indigenous trauma, indigenous peoples of canada, intergenerational trauma, colonial trauma and treatment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1792639 One-Step Time Series Predictions with Recurrent Neural Networks
Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin
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Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 2242638 Day of the Week Patterns and the Financial Trends' Role: Evidence from the Greek Stock Market during the Euro Era
Authors: Nikolaos Konstantopoulos, Aristeidis Samitas, Vasileiou Evangelos
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The purpose of this study is to examine if the financial trends influence not only the stock markets’ returns, but also their anomalies. We choose to study the day of the week effect (DOW) for the Greek stock market during the Euro period (2002-12), because during the specific period there are not significant structural changes and there are long term financial trends. Moreover, in order to avoid possible methodological counterarguments that usually arise in the literature, we apply several linear (OLS) and nonlinear (GARCH family) models to our sample until we reach to the conclusion that the TGARCH model fits better to our sample than any other. Our results suggest that in the Greek stock market there is a long term predisposition for positive/negative returns depending on the weekday. However, the statistical significance is influenced from the financial trend. This influence may be the reason why there are conflict findings in the literature through the time. Finally, we combine the DOW’s empirical findings from 1985-2012 and we may assume that in the Greek case there is a tendency for long lived turn of the week effect.Keywords: day of the week effect, GARCH family models, Athens stock exchange, economic growth, crisis
Procedia PDF Downloads 4042637 Increasing Number of NGOs and Their Conduct: A Case Study of Far Western Region of Nepal
Authors: Raju Thapa
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Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) are conducting activities in Nepal with the overall objective to strengthen peace, progress and prosperity in the society. Based on the research objectives, this study has tried to trace out the reasons behind massive growth of NGOs and the trends that have shaped the handling and functioning of NGOs in the Kailali district. The outcomes of this research are quite embarrassing for NGOs officials. Based on the findings of this research, NGOs are expected to review their guiding principal, integrity and conduct for the betterment of the society.Keywords: NGO, trends, increasing, conduct, integrity, guiding principle, legal, governance, human resources, public trust, financial, collaboration, networking
Procedia PDF Downloads 4042636 Hemoglobin Levels at a Standalone Dialysis Unit
Authors: Babu Shersad, Partha Banerjee
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Reduction in haemoglobin levels has been implicated to be a cause for reduced exercise tolerance and cardiovascular complications of chronic renal diseases. Trends of hemoglobin levels in patients on haemodialysis could be an indicator of efficacy of hemodialysis and an indicator of quality of life in haemodialysis patients. In the UAE, the rate of growth (of patients on dialysis) is 10 to 15 per cent per year. The primary mode of haemodialysis in the region is based on in-patient hospital-based hemodialysis units. The increase in risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular morbidity as well as mortality in pre-dialysis Chronic Renal Disease has been reported. However, data on the health burden on haemodialysis in standalone dialysis facilities is very scarce. This is mainly due to the paucity of ambulatory centres for haemodialysis in the region. AMSA is the first center to offer standalone dialysis in the UAE and a study over a one year period was performed. Patient data was analyzed using a questionnaire for 45 patients with an average of 2.5 dialysis sessions per week. All patients were on chronic haemodialysis as outpatients. The trends of haemoglobin levels as an independent variable were evaluated. These trends were interpreted in comparison with other parameters of renal function (creatinine, uric acid, blood pressure and ferritin). Trends indicate an increase in hemoglobin levels with increased supplementation of iron and erythropoietin over time. The adequacy of hemodialysis shows improvement concomitantly. This, in turn, correlates with better patient outcomes and has a direct impact on morbidity and mortality. This study is a pilot study and further studies are indicated so that objective parameters can be studied and validated for hemodialysis in the region.Keywords: haemodialysis, haemoglobin in haemodialysis, haemodialysis parameters, erythropoietic agents in haemodialysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 2832635 A Machine Learning-Based Approach to Capture Extreme Rainfall Events
Authors: Willy Mbenza, Sho Kenjiro
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Increasing efforts are directed towards a better understanding and foreknowledge of extreme precipitation likelihood, given the adverse effects associated with their occurrence. This knowledge plays a crucial role in long-term planning and the formulation of effective emergency response. However, predicting extreme events reliably presents a challenge to conventional empirical/statistics due to the involvement of numerous variables spanning different time and space scales. In the recent time, Machine Learning has emerged as a promising tool for predicting the dynamics of extreme precipitation. ML techniques enables the consideration of both local and regional physical variables that have a strong influence on the likelihood of extreme precipitation. These variables encompasses factors such as air temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, aerosol concentration, among others. In this study, we develop an ML model that incorporates both local and regional variables while establishing a robust relationship between physical variables and precipitation during the downscaling process. Furthermore, the model provides valuable information on the frequency and duration of a given intensity of precipitation.Keywords: machine learning (ML), predictions, rainfall events, regional variables
Procedia PDF Downloads 802634 Research Trends on Magnetic Graphene for Water Treatment: A Bibliometric Analysis
Authors: J. C. M. Santos, J. C. A. Sousa, A. J. Rubio, L. S. Soletti, F. Gasparotto, N. U. Yamaguchi
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Magnetic graphene has received widespread attention for their capability of water and wastewater treatment, which has been attracted many researchers in this field. A bibliometric analysis based on the Web of Science database was employed to analyze the global scientific outputs of magnetic graphene for water treatment until the present time (2012 to 2017), to improve the understanding of the research trends. The publication year, place of publication, institutes, funding agencies, journals, most cited articles, distribution outputs in thematic categories and applications were analyzed. Three major aspects analyzed including type of pollutant, treatment process and composite composition have further contributed to revealing the research trends. The most relevant research aspects of the main technologies using magnetic graphene for water treatment were summarized in this paper. The results showed that research on magnetic graphene for water treatment goes through a period of decline that might be related to a saturated field and a lack of bibliometric studies. Thus, the result of the present work will lead researchers to establish future directions in further studies using magnetic graphene for water treatment.Keywords: composite, graphene oxide, nanomaterials, scientometrics
Procedia PDF Downloads 2382633 Research Trends in Early Childhood Education Graduate Theses: A Content Analysis
Authors: Seden Demirtaş, Feyza Tantekin Erden
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The importance of research in early childhood education is growing all around the world. This study aims to investigate research trends in graduate theses written in Turkey in the area of early childhood education. Descriptive, contextual and methodological aspects of graduate theses were analyzed to investigate the trends. A sample of the study consisted of 1000 graduate theses (n= 1000) including both MS theses and Ph.D. dissertations. Theses and dissertations were obtained from the thesis database of Council of Higher Education (CoHE). An investigation form was developed by the researcher to analyze graduate theses. The investigation forms validated by expert opinion from early childhood education department. To enhance the reliability of the investigation form, inter-coder agreement was measured by Cohen’s Kappa value (.86). Data were gathered via using the investigation form, and content analysis method was used to analyze the data. Results of the analysis were presented by descriptive statistics and frequency tables. Analysis of the study is on-going and preliminary results of the study show that master theses related to early childhood education have started to be written in 1986, and the number of the theses has increased gradually. In most of the studies, sample group consisted of children especially in between 5-6 age group. Child development, activities (applied in daily curriculum of preschools) and teaching methods are the mostly examined concepts in graduate theses. Qualitative and quantitative research methods were referred equally by researchers in these theses.Keywords: content analysis, early childhood education, graduate thesis, research trends
Procedia PDF Downloads 2632632 Morphological and Molecular Characterization of Accessions of Black Fonio Millet (Digitaria Iburua Stapf) Grown in Selected Regions in Nigeria
Authors: Nwogiji Cletus Olando, Oselebe Happiness Ogba, Enoch Achigan-Dako
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Digitaria iburua, commonly known as black fonio, is a cereal crop native to Africa and extensively cultivated by smallholder farmers in Northern Benin, Togo, and Nigeria. This crop holds immense nutritional and socio-cultural value. Unfortunately, limited knowledge about its genetic diversity exists due to a lack of scientific attention. As a result, its potential for improvement in food and agriculture remains largely untapped. To address this gap, a study was conducted using 41 accessions of D. iburua stored in the genebank of the Laboratory of Genetics, Biotechnology, and Seed Science at Abomey-Calavi University, Benin. The study employed both morphological and simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers to evaluate the genetic variability of the accessions. Agro-morphological assessments were carried out during the 2020 cropping season, utilizing an alpha lattice design with three replications. The collected data encompassed qualitative and quantitative traits. Additionally, molecular variability was assessed using eleven SSR markers. The results revealed significant phenotypic variability among the evaluated accessions, leading to their classification into three main clusters. Furthermore, the eleven SSR markers identified a total of 50 alleles, averaging 4.55 alleles per locus. The primers exhibited an average polymorphic information content value of 0.43, with the DE-ARC019 primer displaying the highest value (0.59). These findings suggest a substantial degree of genetic heterogeneity within the evaluated accessions, and the SSR markers employed in the study proved highly effective in detecting and characterizing this genetic variability. In conclusion, this study highlights the presence of significant genetic diversity in black fonio and provides valuable insights for future efforts aimed at its genetic improvement and conservation.Keywords: genetic diversity, digitaria iburua, genetic improvement, simple sequence repeat markers, Nigeria, conservation
Procedia PDF Downloads 812631 Urban Flood Resilience Comprehensive Assessment of "720" Rainstorm in Zhengzhou Based on Multiple Factors
Authors: Meiyan Gao, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang, Qiuhua Liang
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Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of modern urbanization, the frequency of climate disasters such as extreme precipitation in cities around the world is gradually increasing. In this paper, Hi-PIMS model is used to simulate the "720" flood in Zhengzhou, and the continuous stages of flood resilience are determined with the urban flood stages are divided. The flood resilience curve under the influence of multiple factors were determined and the urban flood toughness was evaluated by combining the results of resilience curves. The flood resilience of urban unit grid was evaluated based on economy, population, road network, hospital distribution and land use type. Firstly, the rainfall data of meteorological stations near Zhengzhou and the remote sensing rainfall data from July 17 to 22, 2021 were collected. The Kriging interpolation method was used to expand the rainfall data of Zhengzhou. According to the rainfall data, the flood process generated by four rainfall events in Zhengzhou was reproduced. Based on the results of the inundation range and inundation depth in different areas, the flood process was divided into four stages: absorption, resistance, overload and recovery based on the once in 50 years rainfall standard. At the same time, based on the levels of slope, GDP, population, hospital affected area, land use type, road network density and other aspects, the resilience curve was applied to evaluate the urban flood resilience of different regional units, and the difference of flood process of different precipitation in "720" rainstorm in Zhengzhou was analyzed. Faced with more than 1,000 years of rainstorm, most areas are quickly entering the stage of overload. The influence levels of factors in different areas are different, some areas with ramps or higher terrain have better resilience, and restore normal social order faster, that is, the recovery stage needs shorter time. Some low-lying areas or special terrain, such as tunnels, will enter the overload stage faster in the case of heavy rainfall. As a result, high levels of flood protection, water level warning systems and faster emergency response are needed in areas with low resilience and high risk. The building density of built-up area, population of densely populated area and road network density all have a certain negative impact on urban flood resistance, and the positive impact of slope on flood resilience is also very obvious. While hospitals can have positive effects on medical treatment, they also have negative effects such as population density and asset density when they encounter floods. The result of a separate comparison of the unit grid of hospitals shows that the resilience of hospitals in the distribution range is low when they encounter floods. Therefore, in addition to improving the flood resistance capacity of cities, through reasonable planning can also increase the flood response capacity of cities. Changes in these influencing factors can further improve urban flood resilience, such as raise design standards and the temporary water storage area when floods occur, train the response speed of emergency personnel and adjust emergency support equipment.Keywords: urban flood resilience, resilience assessment, hydrodynamic model, resilience curve
Procedia PDF Downloads 362630 Hydrochemical Contamination Profiling and Spatial-Temporal Mapping with the Support of Multivariate and Cluster Statistical Analysis
Authors: Sofia Barbosa, Mariana Pinto, José António Almeida, Edgar Carvalho, Catarina Diamantino
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The aim of this work was to test a methodology able to generate spatial-temporal maps that can synthesize simultaneously the trends of distinct hydrochemical indicators in an old radium-uranium tailings dam deposit. Multidimensionality reduction derived from principal component analysis and subsequent data aggregation derived from clustering analysis allow to identify distinct hydrochemical behavioural profiles and to generate synthetic evolutionary hydrochemical maps.Keywords: Contamination plume migration, K-means of PCA scores, groundwater and mine water monitoring, spatial-temporal hydrochemical trends
Procedia PDF Downloads 2212629 Fiber-Reinforced Sandwich Structures Based on Selective Laser Sintering: A Technological View
Authors: T. Häfele, J. Kaspar, M. Vielhaber, W. Calles, J. Griebsch
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The demand for an increasing diversification of the product spectrum associated with the current huge customization desire and subsequently the decreasing unit quantities of each production lot is gaining more and more importance within a great variety of industrial branches, e.g. automotive industry. Nevertheless, traditional product development and production processes (molding, extrusion) are already reaching their limits or fail to address these trends of a flexible and digitized production in view of a product variability up to lot size one. Thus, upcoming innovative production concepts like the additive manufacturing technology basically create new opportunities with regard to extensive potentials in product development (constructive optimization) and manufacturing (economic individualization), but mostly suffer from insufficient strength regarding structural components. Therefore, this contribution presents an innovative technological and procedural conception of a hybrid additive manufacturing process (fiber-reinforced sandwich structures based on selective laser sintering technology) to overcome these current structural weaknesses, and consequently support the design of complex lightweight components.Keywords: additive manufacturing, fiber-reinforced plastics (FRP), hybrid design, lightweight design
Procedia PDF Downloads 2922628 Assessing the Current State of Software Engineering and Information Technology in Ghana
Authors: David Yartel
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Drawing on the current state of software engineering and information technology in Ghana, the study documents its significant contribution to the development of Ghanaian industries. The study focuses on the application of modern trends in technology and the barriers faced in the area of software engineering and information technology. A thorough analysis of a dozen of interviews with stakeholders in software engineering and information technology via interviews reveals how modern trends in software engineering pose challenges to the industry in Ghana. Results show that to meet the expectation of modern software engineering and information technology trends, stakeholders must have skilled professionals, adequate infrastructure, and enhanced support for technology startups. Again, individuals should be encouraged to pursue a career in software engineering and information technology, as it has the propensity to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of work-related activities. This study recommends that stakeholders in software engineering and technology industries should invest enough in training more professionals by collaborating with international institutions well-versed in the area by organizing frequent training and seminars. The government should also provide funding opportunities for small businesses in the technology sector to drive creativity and development in order to bring about growth and development.Keywords: software engineering, information technology, Ghana, development
Procedia PDF Downloads 852627 Evaluation of Research in the Field of Energy Efficiency and MCA Methods Using Publications Databases
Authors: Juan Sepúlveda
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Energy is a fundamental component in sustainability, the access and use of this resource is related with economic growth, social improvements, and environmental impacts. In this sense, energy efficiency has been studied as a factor that enhances the positive impacts of energy in communities; however, the implementation of efficiency requires strong policy and strategies that usually rely on individual measures focused in independent dimensions. In this paper, the problem of energy efficiency as a multi-objective problem is studied, using scientometric analysis to discover trends and patterns that allow to identify the main variables and study approximations related with a further development of models to integrate energy efficiency and MCA into policy making for small communities.Keywords: energy efficiency, MCA, scientometric, trends
Procedia PDF Downloads 363