Search results for: Aristeidis Samitas

Authors: Aristeidis Samitas, Stathis Polyzos

Abstract:

As the UK and the EU prepare to start negotiations for Brexit, it is important for both sides to comprehend the full extent of the consequences of this process. In this paper, we employ an object oriented simulation framework in order to test for the short-term and long-term effects of Brexit on both sides of the Channel. The relative strength of the UK economy and the banking sector vis-à-vis the EU is taken under consideration. Our results confirm predictions in the relevant literature regarding the output cost of Brexit, with particular emphasis on the EU. Furthermore, we show that financial stability is also an important issue on both sides, with the banking system suffering significant losses, particularly over the longer term. Our findings suggest that policymakers should be extremely careful in handling Brexit negotiations, making sure to consider dynamic effects that may be caused by UK bank assets moving to the EU after Brexit. The model results show that, as the UK banking system loses its assets, the end state of the UK economy is deteriorated while the end state of EU economy is improved.

Keywords: Banking Crises, Brexit, Financial Stability, VBanking

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Nikolaos Konstantopoulos, Aristeidis Samitas, Vasileiou Evangelos

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to examine if the financial trends influence not only the stock markets’ returns, but also their anomalies. We choose to study the day of the week effect (DOW) for the Greek stock market during the Euro period (2002-12), because during the specific period there are not significant structural changes and there are long term financial trends. Moreover, in order to avoid possible methodological counterarguments that usually arise in the literature, we apply several linear (OLS) and nonlinear (GARCH family) models to our sample until we reach to the conclusion that the TGARCH model fits better to our sample than any other. Our results suggest that in the Greek stock market there is a long term predisposition for positive/negative returns depending on the weekday. However, the statistical significance is influenced from the financial trend. This influence may be the reason why there are conflict findings in the literature through the time. Finally, we combine the DOW’s empirical findings from 1985-2012 and we may assume that in the Greek case there is a tendency for long lived turn of the week effect.

Keywords: day of the week effect, GARCH family models, Athens stock exchange, economic growth, crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Aristeidis Samitas, Evangelos Vasileiou

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to examine the month and the trading month effect under changing financial trends. We choose the Greek stock market to implement our assumption because there are clear and long term periods of financial growth and recession. Daily financial data from Athens Exchange General Index for the period 2002-2012 are considered. The paper employs several linear and non-linear models, although the TGARCH asymmetry model best fits in this sample and for this reason we mainly present the TGARCH results. Empirical results show that changing economic and financial conditions influences the calendar effects. Especially, the trading month effect totally changes in each fortnight according to the financial trend. On the other hand, in Greece the January effect exists during the growth periods, although it does not exist when the financial trend changes. The findings are helpful to anybody who invest and deals with the Greek stock market. Moreover, they may pave the way for an alternative calendar anomalies research approach, so it may be useful to investors who take into account these anomalies when they draw their investment strategy.

Keywords: month effect, trading month effect, economic cycles, crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Konstantopoulos N., Samitas A., E. Vasileiou, Kinias I.

Abstract:

This article introduces a new view on the month effect study. Applying a Markov Switching Regime model on data from the Greek Time Deposits (TDs) market for the time span January 2003 to October 2013, we examine if there is a month effect on the Greek banking industry. The empirical findings provide convincing evidence for a new king of monthly anomaly. The explanation for the specific abnormality may be the upward deposits window dressing. Further research should be done in order to examine if the specific calendar effect exists in other countries or it is only a Greek phenomenon.

Keywords: calendar anomalies, banking crisis, month effect, Greek banking industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 335