Search results for: Adandedji M. Firmin

2 Forecasting Nokoué Lake Water Levels Using Long Short-Term Memory Network

Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

Abstract:

The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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1 Borassus aethiopum Mart Mature Fruits Macro-Composition, Drying Temperature Effect on Its Pulp Protein, Fat, Sugars, Metabolizable Energy, and Fatty Acids Profile

Authors: Tagouelbe Tiho, Amissa Augustin Adima, Yao Casimir Brou, Nabayo Traore, Gouha Firmin Kouassi, Thierry Roland Kouame, Maryline Kouba

Abstract:

The work aimed to study Borassus aethiopum Mart (B.a) dried pulp nutritional value for its incorporation in human and poultry diets. Firstly, the mature fruit macro-composition was assessed. Secondly, the pulp was dried at 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80ᵒC. Thereafter, the analysis was performed for fat, protein, total sugars, Ca, P, Mg, and fatty acid profile monitoring. As a result, the fruits weighed 1,591.35, delivered 516.73, and 677.82 grams of pulp and seeds, respectively. Mainly, increasing heat adversely affected the outputs. Consequently, the fat results were 14.12, 12.97, 8.93, 8.89ᶜ, and 5.56%; protein contents were 11.64, 10.15, 8.97, 8.84, and 8.42%; total sugar deliveries were 6.28, 6.05, 5.26, 5.02, and 4.76% (P < 0.01). Thereafter, the metabolizable energies were 3,785.22; 3,834.28; 3,616.62; 3,667.03; and 3,608.33 kcal/kg (DM). Additionally, Calcium (Ca) contents were 0.51, 0.55, 0.69, 0.77, and 0.81%, while phosphorus (P) mean was 0.17%, and the differences were not significant (P < 0.01). So, the Ca/P ratios were 2.79, 3.04, 4.10, 4.71, and 4.95. Finally, fatty acids (FA) assessments revealed 22.33 saturated (SFA), 77.67 unsaturated (UFA), within which 67.59% were monounsaturated (MUFA). Interestingly, the rising heat depressed n-6/n-3 ratios that were 1.1, 1.1, 0.45 and 0.38, respectively at 40, 50, 70 and 80ᵒC. In short, drying did not only enhance the product shelf life but it also improved the nutritional value. Thus, B.a mature fruit pulps dried at 70ᵒC are good functional foods, with more than 66% MUFA, and energy source for human and poultry nutrition.

Keywords: Borassus aethiopum Mart, fatty acids, metabolizable energy, minerals, protein

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