Search results for: Fama French four factor model

Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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Authors: Hilya Mudrika Arini, Nur Aini Masruroh, Budi Hartono

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There are more than 20 terrorist threats from 2002 to 2012 in Indonesia. Despite of this fact, preventive solution through studies in the field of national security in Indonesia has not been conducted comprehensively. This study aims to provide a preventive solution by developing prediction model of the terrorist threat in Indonesia by using Bayesian network. There are eight stages to build the model, started from literature review, build and verify Bayesian belief network to what-if scenario. In order to build the model, four experts from different perspectives are utilized. This study finds several significant findings. First, news and the readiness of terrorist group are the most influent factor. Second, according to several scenarios of the news portion, it can be concluded that the higher positive news proportion, the higher probability of terrorist threat will occur. Therefore, the preventive solution to reduce the terrorist threat in Indonesia based on the model is by keeping the positive news portion to a maximum of 38%.

Keywords: Bayesian network, decision analysis, national security system, text mining

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Authors: Slah Eddine Ben Fadhel

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Despite the development of new pedagogic methods, current teaching practices put more emphasis on the learning products than on the processes learners deploy. In school syllabi, for instance, very little time is devoted to both the explanation and analysis of strategies aimed at resolving problems by means of targeting students’ metacognitive procedures. Within a cognitive framework, teaching/learning contexts are conceived of in terms of cognitive, metacognitive and affective activities intended for the treatment of information. During these activities, learners come to develop an array of knowledge and strategies which can be subsumed within an active and constructive process. Through the investigation of strategies and metacognition concepts, the purpose is to reflect upon the modalities at the heart of the learning process and to demonstrate, similarly, the inherent significance of a cognitive approach to learning. The scope of this paper is predicated on a study where the population is a group of 76 primary school pupils who experienced difficulty with learning French. The population was divided into two groups: the first group was submitted during three months to a strategy-based training to learn French. All through this phase, the teachers centred class activities round making learners aware of the strategies the latter deployed and geared them towards appraising the steps these learners had themselves taken by means of a variety of tools, most prominent among which is the logbook. The second group was submitted to the usual learning context with no recourse whatsoever to any strategy-oriented tasks. The results of both groups point out the improvement of linguistic competences in the French language in the case of those pupils who were trained by means of strategic procedures. Furthermore, this improvement was noted in relation with the native language (Arabic), a fact that tends to highlight the importance of the interdisciplinary investigation of (meta-)cognitive strategies. These results show that strategic learning promotes in pupils the development of a better awareness of their own processes, which contributes to improving their general linguistic competences.

Keywords: constructive approach, cognitive strategies, metacognition, learning

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Authors: Ahmed Elsebaay, Maged A. Abu Adma, Mahmoud Ramadan

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This study presents a technique clarifying the effect of ambient air temperature and loads power factor changing from standard values on electric generator power rating. The study introduces an optimized technique for selecting the correct electric generator power rating for certain application and operating site ambient temperature. The de-rating factors due to the previous effects will be calculated to be applied on a generator to select its power rating accurately to avoid unsafe operation and save its lifetime. The information in this paper provides a simple, accurate, and general method for synchronous generator selection and eliminates common errors.

Keywords: ambient temperature, de-rating factor, electric generator, power factor

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Authors: Alexey V. Klyuev, Arkady V. Yakimov, Mikhail I. Ryzhkin, Andrey V. Klyuev

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Fluctuations of Schottky diode parameters in a structure of the mixer are investigated. These fluctuations are manifested in two ways. At the first, they lead to fluctuations in the transfer factor that is lead to the amplitude fluctuations in the signal of intermediate frequency. On the basis of the measurement data of 1/f noise of the diode at forward current, the estimation of a spectrum of relative fluctuations in transfer factor of the mixer is executed. Current dependence of the spectrum of relative fluctuations in transfer factor of the mixer and dependence of the spectrum of relative fluctuations in transfer factor of the mixer on the amplitude of the heterodyne signal are investigated. At the second, fluctuations in parameters of the diode lead to the occurrence of 1/f noise in the output signal of the mixer. This noise limits the sensitivity of the mixer to the value of received signal.

Keywords: current-voltage characteristic, fluctuations, mixer, Schottky diode, 1/f noise

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Authors: Margareth E. Bolla, Ludfi Djakfar, Achmad Wicaksono

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The increase in the number of motorcycle users in Indonesia is in line with the increase in accidents involving motorcycles. Several previous studies have shown that humans are the biggest factor causing accidents, and the driver's personality factor will affect his behavior on the road. This study was conducted to see how a person's personality traits will affect the probability of having an accident while driving. The Big Five Inventory (BFI) questionnaire and the Honda Riding Trainer (HRT) simulator were used as measuring tools, while the analysis carried out was logistic regression analysis. The results of the descriptive analysis of the respondent's personality based on the BFI show that the majority of drivers have the dominant character of neuroticism (34%), while the smallest group is the driver with the dominant type of openness character (6%). The percentage of motorists who were not involved in an accident was 54%. The results of the logistic regression analysis form a mathematical model as follows Y = -3.852 - 0.288 X1 + 0.596 X2 + 0.429 X3 - 0.386 X4 - 0.094 X5 + 0.436 X6 + 0.162 X7, where the results of hypothesis testing indicate that the variables openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, history of traffic accidents and age at starting driving did not have a significant effect on the probability of a motorcyclist being involved in an accident.

Keywords: accidents, BFI, probability, simulator

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Authors: Athena Daniilidou, Maria Platsidou

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Resilience is considered to greatly affect the personal and occupational wellbeing and efficacy of individuals; therefore, it has been widely studied in the social and behavioral sciences. Given its significance, several scales have been created to assess resilience of children and adults. However, most of these scales focus on examining only the internal protective or risk factors that affect the levels of resilience. The aim of the present study is to create a reliable scale that assesses both the internal and the external protective factors that affect Greek teachers’ levels of resilience. Participants were 136 secondary school teachers (89 females, 47 males) from urban areas of Greece. Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-Risc) and Resilience Scale for Adults (RSA) were used to collect the data. First, exploratory factor analysis was employed to investigate the inner structure of each scale. For both scales, the analyses revealed a differentiated factor solution compared to the ones proposed by the creators. That prompt us to create a scale that would combine the best fitting subscales of the CD-Risc and the RSA. To this end, the items of the four factors with the best fit and highest reliability were used to create the ‘Teachers' resilience scale’. Exploratory factor analysis revealed that the scale assesses the following protective/risk factors: Personal Competence and Strength (9 items, α=.83), Family Cohesion Spiritual Influences (7 items, α=.80), Social Competence and Peers Support (7 items, α=.78) and Spiritual Influence (3 items, α=.58). This four-factor model explained 49,50% of the total variance. In the next step, a confirmatory factor analysis was performed on the 26 items of the derived scale to test the above factor solution. The fit of the model to the data was good (χ2/292 = 1.245, CFI = .921, GFI = .829, SRMR = .074, CI90% = .026-,056, RMSEA = 0.43), indicating that the proposed scale can validly measure the aforementioned four aspects of teachers' resilience and thus confirmed its factorial validity. Finally, analyses of variance were performed to check for individual differences in the levels of teachers' resilience in relation to their gender, age, marital status, level of studies, and teaching specialty. Results were consistent to previous findings, thus providing an indication of discriminant validity for the instrument. This scale has the advantage of assessing both the internal and the external protective factors of resilience in a brief yet comprehensive way, since it consists 26 items instead of the total of 58 of the CD-Risc and RSA scales. Its factorial inner structure is supported by the relevant literature on resilience, as it captures the major protective factors of resilience identified in previous studies.

Keywords: protective factors, resilience, scale development, teachers

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Authors: Abd Elrahman Elgamala, N. Darwish, I. Bondouk, Sh. Hamada

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Available experimental angular distributions for ⁶Li elastically scattered from ¹⁶O nucleus in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV are investigated and reanalyzed using optical model of the conventional phenomenological potential and also using double folding optical model of different interaction models: DDM3Y1, CDM3Y1, CDM3Y2, and CDM3Y3. All the involved models of interaction are of M3Y Paris except DDM3Y1 which is of M3Y Reid and the main difference between them lies in the different values for the parameters of the incorporated density distribution function F(ρ). We have extracted the renormalization factor N_R for ⁶Li+¹⁶O nuclear system in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV using the aforementioned interaction models.

Keywords: elastic scattering, optical model, folding potential, density distribution

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Authors: Tehrrie Konig, Cassiano Bortolozo, Daniel Metodiev, Rodolfo Mendes, Marcio Andrade, Marcio Moraes

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Gravitational mass movements are recurrent events in Brazil, usually triggered by intense rainfall. When these events occur in urban areas, they end up becoming disasters due to the economic damage, social impact, and loss of human life. To identify the landslide-susceptible areas, it is important to know the geotechnical parameters of the soil, such as cohesion, internal friction angle, unit weight, hydraulic conductivity, and hydraulic diffusivity. The measurement of these parameters is made by collecting soil samples to analyze in the laboratory and by using geophysical methodologies, such as Vertical Electrical Survey (VES). The geophysical surveys analyze the soil properties with minimal impact in its initial structure. Statistical analysis and mathematical models of physical basis are used to model and calculate the Factor of Safety for steep slope areas. In general, such mathematical models work from the combination of slope stability models and hydrological models. One example is the mathematical model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope- Stability Model) which calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety of a determined study area. The model relies on changes in pore-pressure and soil moisture during a rainfall event. TRIGRS was written in the Fortran programming language and associates the hydrological model, which is based on the Richards Equation, with the stability model based on the principle of equilibrium limit. Therefore, the aims of this work are modeling the slope stability of Campos do Jordão with TRIGRS, using geotechnical and geophysical methodologies to acquire the soil properties. The study area is located at southern-east of Sao Paulo State in the Mantiqueira Mountains and has a historic landslide register. During the fieldwork, soil samples were collected, and the VES method applied. These procedures provide the soil properties, which were used as input data in the TRIGRS model. The hydrological data (infiltration rate and initial water table height) and rainfall duration and intensity, were acquired from the eight rain gauges installed by Cemaden in the study area. A very high spatial resolution digital terrain model was used to identify the slopes declivity. The analyzed period is from March 6th to March 8th of 2017. As results, the TRIGRS model calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety within a 72-hour period in which two heavy rainfall events stroke the area and six landslides were registered. After each rainfall, the Factor of Safety declined, as expected. The landslides happened in areas identified by the model with low values of Factor of Safety, proving its efficiency on the identification of landslides susceptible areas. This study presents a critical threshold for landslides, in which an accumulated rainfall higher than 80mm/m² in 72 hours might trigger landslides in urban and natural slopes. The geotechnical and geophysics methods are shown to be very useful to identify the soil properties and provide the geological characteristics of the area. Therefore, the combine geotechnical and geophysical methods for soil characterization and the modeling of landslides susceptible areas with TRIGRS are useful for urban planning. Furthermore, early warning systems can be developed by combining the TRIGRS model and weather forecast, to prevent disasters in urban slopes.

Keywords: landslides, susceptibility, TRIGRS, vertical electrical survey

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Recurrent infant diarrhea is studied using daily data collected in Salvador, Brazil over one year and three months. A logistic regression model is fitted instead of Aalen's additive model using the same covariates that were used in the analysis with the additive model. The model gives reasonably similar results to that using additive regression model. In addition, the problem with the estimated conditional probabilities not being constrained between zero and one in additive model is solved here. Also martingale residuals that have been used to judge the goodness of fit for the additive model are shown to be useful for judging the goodness of fit of the logistic model.

Keywords: additive model, cumulative probabilities, infant diarrhoea, recurrent event

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Authors: Park, Yoon Hong, Wang, Jung Kab, Choi Seong-Won, Kim, Hong Kyu

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Itaewon-Ro is a special place where the Seoul Metropolitan city designated as the fist are of tourism, specially with the commercial supremacy that foreigners may like. It is the place that grew with regional specialty. Study on the vitalization factors of commercialist were analyzed on consumer shop choice factor, Physical environment based on commercial supremacy vitalization, Functional side of the road and regional specialty. However, since Itaewon seemed to take great place in the cultural factor, Because of its regional specialty, Research was processed. This study is the analysis on the vitalization of Itaewon commercialist that looked for important factors with AHP analysis on consumers use as commercialist. Based on the field study and preceded study, top three factors were distinguished with physical factor, cultural factor, landscape factor, and thirteen detail contents were found. This study focused on the choice of the consumer and with a consumer-based questionnaire, we analyzed the importance of vitalization factors. Results of the research are shown in the following paragraphs. In the Itaewon commercial market, mostly women in the 20~30s were the main consumers for meeting and hopping. Vitalization category that the consumer thinks it most importantly was 'attraction', 'various businesses', and 'convenience of transportation'. 'Attraction that cannot be seen in other places', Which was chosen as the most important factor was judged that Itaewon holds cultural identity that is shown in the process of development, Instead of showing artificial and physical composition.

Keywords: commercialist, vitalization factor, regional specialty, cultural factor, AHP analysis

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Authors: Ayesha Waqar Khan, Mariam Altaf, Jamil Ahmad, Shaheen Shahzad

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Kidney fibrosis is an anticipated outcome of possibly all types of progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD). Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) signaling pathway is responsible for production of matrix-producing fibroblasts and myofibroblasts in diseased kidney. In this study, a discrete model of TGF-beta (transforming growth factor) and CTGF (connective tissue growth factor) was constructed using Rene Thomas formalism to investigate renal fibrosis turn over. The kinetic logic proposed by Rene Thomas is a renowned approach for modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs). This modeling approach uses a set of constraints which represents the dynamics of the BRN thus analyzing the pathway and predicting critical trajectories that lead to a normal or diseased state. The molecular connection between TGF-beta, Smad 2/3 (transcription factor) phosphorylation and CTGF is modeled using GenoTech. The order of BRN is CTGF, TGF-B, and SMAD3 respectively. The predicted cycle depicts activation of TGF-B (TGF-β) via cleavage of its own pro-domain (0,1,0) and presentation to TGFR-II receptor phosphorylating SMAD3 (Smad2/3) in the state (0,1,1). Later TGF-B is turned off (0,0,1) thereby activating SMAD3 that further stimulates the expression of CTGF in the state (1,0,1) and itself turns off in (1,0,0). Elevated CTGF expression reactivates TGF-B (1,1,0) and the cycle continues. The predicted model has generated one cycle and two steady states. Cyclic behavior in this study represents the diseased state in which all three proteins contribute to renal fibrosis. The proposed model is in accordance with the experimental findings of the existing diseased state. Extended cycle results in enhanced CTGF expression through Smad2/3 and Smad4 translocation in the nucleus. The results suggest that the system converges towards organ fibrogenesis if CTGF remains constructively active along with Smad2/3 and Smad 4 that plays an important role in kidney fibrosis. Therefore, modeling regulatory pathways of kidney fibrosis will escort to the progress of therapeutic tools and real-world useful applications such as predictive and preventive medicine.

Keywords: CTGF, renal fibrosis signaling pathway, system biology, qualitative modeling

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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Authors: Paul Koffitse Agobia

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In 2020 the Ministry of Education in Ghana and the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment (NaCCA) rolled out a new curriculum, Common Core Programme (CCP) for Basic 7 to 10, that lays emphasis on character building and values which are important to the Ghanaian society by providing education that will produce character–minded learners, with problem solving skills, who can play active roles in dealing with the increasing challenges facing Ghana and the global society. Therefore, learning and teaching approaches that prioritise the use of digital learning resources and active learning are recommended. The new challenge facing Ghanaian teachers is the ability to use new technologies together with the appropriate content pedagogical knowledge to help learners develop, aside the communication skills in French, the essential 21st century skills as recommended in the new curriculum. This article focusses on the pedagogical approaches that are recommended by NaCCA. The study seeks to examine French language teachers’ understanding of the recommended pedagogical approaches and how they use digital learning resources in class to foster the development of these essential skills and values. 54 respondents, comprised 30 teachers and 24 head teachers, were selected in 6 Junior High schools in rural districts (both private and public) and 6 from Junior High schools in an urban setting. The schools were selected in three regions: Volta, Central and Western regions. A class observation checklist and an interview guide were used to collect data for the study. The study reveals that some teachers adopt teaching techniques that do not promote active learning. They demonstrate little understanding of the core competences and values, therefore, fail to integrate them in their lessons. However, some other teachers, despite their lack of understanding of learning and teaching philosophies, adopted techniques that can help learners develop some of the core competences and values. In most schools, digital learning resources are not utilized, though teachers have smartphones or laptops.

Keywords: active learning, core competences, digital learning resources, pedagogical approach, values.

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Authors: Yves Monette, Brad Loewen, Louise Pothier

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This study explores the first bog iron ore extraction activities which took place in colonial New France. Archaeological excavations carried on the founding site of Montreal in the last ten years have revealed the remains of Fort Ville-Marie erected in 1642. In a level related to the fort occupation between 1660 and 1680, kilos of scories, a dozen of half-finished iron artefacts and a light yellow clayey ore material have recovered that point to extractive metallurgy activities at the fort. Examples of scories, artefacts and of a possible bog iron ore were submitted to SEM-EDS analysis. The results clearly indicate that iron was extracted from local limonite ores in a bloomery. We discovered that the gangue material could be traced from the ore to the scories. However, some lime silicates and some accessory minerals found in the scories, like barite and celestine for example, were absent from the ore but present in dolomite fragments found in the same archaeological context. The tracing of accessory minerals suggests that the ironmaster introduced a lime flux in the bloomery charge to maximize the separation of the iron ore. Before the introduction of the blast furnace in Western Europe during the first half of the 18th Century, the use of fluxes in iron bloomery was not a common practice.

Keywords: bog iron ore, extractive metallurgy, French colonial America, Montreal, scanning electron microscopy (SEM)

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Authors: Dipak Sen, Rajdeep Ghosh

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This paper presents a computational study of steady state three dimensional very high turbulent flow and heat transfer characteristics in a constant temperature-surfaced circular duct fitted with 900 hemispherical inline baffles. The computations are based on realizable k-ɛ model with standard wall function considering the finite volume method, and the SIMPLE algorithm has been implemented. Computational Study are carried out for Reynolds number, Re ranging from 80000 to 120000, Prandtl Number, Pr of 0.73, Pitch Ratios, PR of 1,2,3,4,5 based on the hydraulic diameter of the channel, hydrodynamic entry length, thermal entry length and the test section. Ansys Fluent 15.0 software has been used to solve the flow field. Study reveals that circular pipe having baffles has a higher Nusselt number and friction factor compared to the smooth circular pipe without baffles. Maximum Nusselt number and friction factor are obtained for the PR=5 and PR=1 respectively. Nusselt number increases while pitch ratio increases in the range of study; however, friction factor also decreases up to PR 3 and after which it becomes almost constant up to PR 5. Thermal enhancement factor increases with increasing pitch ratio but with slightly decreasing Reynolds number in the range of study and becomes almost constant at higher Reynolds number. The computational results reveal that optimum thermal enhancement factor of 900 inline hemispherical baffle is about 1.23 for pitch ratio 5 at Reynolds number 120000.It also shows that the optimum pitch ratio for which the baffles can be installed in such very high turbulent flows should be 5. Results show that pitch ratio and Reynolds number play an important role on both fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics.

Keywords: friction factor, heat transfer, turbulent flow, circular duct, baffle, pitch ratio

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Authors: Jandot Aurélia

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In France, in the main media, the concern about nuclear safety and security has not really appeared before the beginning of the 1970s. The gradual changes in its perception are studied here through the arguments given in the main French news magazines, linked with several parameters. As this represents a considerable amount of copies and thus of information, are selected here the main articles as well as the main “mental images” aiming to persuade the readers and which have led the public awareness to evolve. Indeed, in the 1970s, in France, these evolutions were not made in one day. Indeed, over the period, many articles were still in favor of nuclear power plants and promoted the technological advances that were made in this field. They had to be taken into account. But, gradually, grew up arguments and mental images discrediting the perception of nuclear technology. Among these were the environmental impacts of this industry, as the question of pollution progressively appeared. So, between 1970 and 1979, the language has changed, as the perceptible objectives of the communication, allowing to discern the deepest intentions of the editorial staffs of the French news magazines. This is all these changes that are emphasized here, over a period when the safety and security concern linked to the nuclear technology, to there a field for specialists, has become progressively a social issue seemingly open to all.

Keywords: environmental impacts, media discourse, nuclear security, public awareness

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Authors: Arpit Panwar, Arvind Deshpande

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The study of external vehicle aerodynamics using Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model with adjoint method was conducted. The accessibility and ease of working with the Fluent module of ANSYS and OpenFOAM were considered. The objective of the study was to understand and analyze the possibility of bringing high-level aerodynamic simulation to the average consumer vehicle. A form-factor of BMW M6 vehicle was designed in Solidworks, which was analyzed in OpenFOAM and Fluent. The turbulence model being a single equation provides much faster convergence rate when clubbed with the adjoint method. Fluent being commercial software still does not allow us to solve Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model using the adjoint method. Hence, the turbulence model was solved using the SIMPLE method in Fluent. OpenFOAM being an open source provide flexibility in simulation but is not user-friendly. It supports solving the defined turbulence model with the adjoint method. The result generated from the simulation gives us acceptable values of drag, when validated with the result of percentage error in drag values for a notch-back vehicle model on an extensive simulation produced at 6th ANSA and μETA conference, Greece. The success of this approach will allow us to bring more aerodynamic vehicle body design to all segments of the automobile and not limiting it to just the high-end sports cars.

Keywords: Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model, OpenFOAM, adjoint method, SIMPLE method, vehicle aerodynamic design

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Authors: Kholil, Laksanto Utomo

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The food needs of the Indonesian people will continue increase year to year due to the increase of population growth. For ensuring food securityand and resilience, the government has developed a program food self-resilience village since 2006. Food resilience is a complex system, consisting of subsystem availability, distribution and consumption of the sufficiency of food consumed both in quantity and quality. Low access, and limited assets to food sources is the dominant factor vulnerable of food. Women have a major role in supporting the productive activities of the family to meet food sufficiency and resilience. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the model of food self-resilience village wich gender responsive by using a dynamic system model. Model will be developed into 3 level: family, vilage, and regency in accordance with the concept of village food resilience model wich has been developed by ministry of agriculture. Model development based on the results of experts discussion and field study. By some scenarios and simulation models we will able to develop appropriate policy strategies for family food resilience. The result of study show that food resilience was influenced by many factors: goverment policies, technology, human resource, and in the same time it will be a feed back for goverment policies and number of poor family.

Keywords: food availability, food sufficiency, gender, model dynamic, law enfrocement

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Authors: Mike Tsionas

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The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

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Authors: G. S. Walia, H. P. Singh, D. Padma

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The integration of wide variety of communication services is made possible with invention of 3G technology. Code Division Multiple Access 2000 operates on various RF channel bandwidths 1.2288 or 3.6864 Mcps (1x or 3x systems). It is a 3G system which offers high bandwidth and wireless broadband services but its efficiency is lowered due to various factors like fading, interference, scattering, absorption etc. This paper investigates the effect of diversity (MRC), roll off factor in Root Raised Cosine (RRC) filter for the BPSK and QPSK modulation schemes. It is possible to transmit data with minimum Inter symbol Interference and within limited bandwidth with proper pulse shaping technique. Bit error rate (BER) performance is analyzed by applying diversity technique by varying the roll off factor for BPSK and QPSK. Roll off factor reduces the ISI and diversity reduces the Fading.

Keywords: CDMA2000, root raised cosine, roll-off factor, ISI, diversity, interference, fading

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Authors: Yalong Jiang, Zheru Chi

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In this paper, we study the factors which determine the capacity of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model and propose the ways to evaluate and adjust the capacity of a CNN model for best matching to a specific pattern recognition task. Firstly, a scheme is proposed to adjust the number of independent functional units within a CNN model to make it be better fitted to a task. Secondly, the number of independent functional units in the capsule network is adjusted to fit it to the training dataset. Thirdly, a method based on Bayesian GAN is proposed to enrich the variances in the current dataset to increase its complexity. Experimental results on the PASCAL VOC 2010 Person Part dataset and the MNIST dataset show that, in both conventional CNN models and capsule networks, the number of independent functional units is an important factor that determines the capacity of a network model. By adjusting the number of functional units, the capacity of a model can better match the complexity of a dataset.

Keywords: CNN, convolutional neural network, capsule network, capacity optimization, character recognition, data augmentation, semantic segmentation

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Authors: G. Lei, P. C. Dong, X. Q. Cen, S. Y. Mo

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One of the most significant parameters, describing the effect of water flooding in porous media, is flood-response time, and it is an important index in oilfield development. The responding time in low permeability reservoir is usually calculated by the method of stable state successive substitution neglecting the effect of medium deformation. Numerous studies show that the media deformation has an important impact on the development for low permeability reservoirs and can not be neglected. On the base of streamline tube model, we developed a method to interpret responding time with medium deformation factor. The results show that: the media deformation factor, threshold pressure gradient and well spacing have a significant effect on the flood response time. The greater the media deformation factor, threshold pressure gradient or well spacing is, the lower the flood response time is. The responding time of different streamlines varies. As the angle with the main streamline increases, the water flooding response time delays as a "parabola" shape.

Keywords: low permeability, flood-response time, threshold pressure gradient, medium deformation

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Authors: A. Tavangari, N. Salehzadeh

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In the crack growth analysis, the Stress Intensity Factor (SIF) is a fundamental prerequisite. In the present study, the mode I stress intensity factor (SIF) of three-dimensional penny-Shaped crack is obtained in an isotropic elastic cylindrical medium with arbitrary dimensions under arbitrary loading at the top of the cylinder, by the semi-analytical method based on the Rayleigh-Ritz method. This method that is based on minimizing the potential energy amount of the whole of the system, gives a very close results to the previous studies. Defining the displacements (elastic fields) by hypothetical functions in a defined coordinate system is the base of this research. So for creating the singularity conditions at the tip of the crack the appropriate terms should be found.

Keywords: penny-shaped crack, stress intensity factor, fracture mechanics, Ritz method

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or OPEC announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study about the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated by the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: the price of the wellhead, domestic output, and GNP constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity

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Authors: Ritu Raj, Hrishikesh Dubey

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This paper presents the results of the experimental investigations carried out on two intricate plan shaped buildings to evaluate aerodynamic performance of the building. The purpose is to study the associated environment arising due to wind forces in isolated and interference conditions on a model of scale 1:300 with a prototype having 180m height. Experimental tests were carried out at the boundary layer wind tunnel considering isolated conditions with 0° to 180° isolated wind directions and four interference conditions of twin building (separately for both the models). The research has been undertaken in Terrain Category-II, which is the most widely available terrain in India. A comparative assessment of the two models is performed out in an attempt to comprehend the various consequences of diverse conditions that may emerge in real-life situations, as well as the discrepancies amongst them. Experimental results of wind pressure coefficients of Model-1 and Model-2 shows good agreement with various wind incidence conditions with minute difference in the magnitudes of mean Cp. On the basis of wind tunnel studies, it is distinguished that the performance of Model-2 is better than Model-1in both isolated as well as interference conditions for all wind incidences and orientations respectively.

Keywords: interference factor, tall buildings, wind direction, mean pressure-coefficients

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Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Heming Yao

Abstract:

Graphene-based percolative strain gauges could find applications in many places such as touch panels, artificial skins or human motion detection because of its advantages over conventional strain gauges such as flexibility and transparency. These strain gauges rely on a novel sensing mechanism that depends on strain-induced morphology changes. Once a compression or tension strain is applied to Graphene-based percolative strain gauges, the overlap area between neighboring flakes becomes smaller or larger, which is reflected by the considerable change of resistance. Tiny strain change on graphene-based percolative strain sensor can act as an important leverage to tremendously increase resistance of strain sensor, which equipped graphene-based percolative strain gauges with higher gauge factor. Despite ongoing research in the underlying sensing mechanism and the limits of sensitivity, neither suitable understanding has been obtained of what intrinsic factors play the key role in adjust gauge factor, nor explanation on how the strain gauge sensitivity can be enhanced, which is undoubtedly considerably meaningful and provides guideline to design novel and easy-produced strain sensor with high gauge factor. We here simulated the strain process by modeling graphene flakes and its percolative networks. We constructed the 3D resistance network by simulating overlapping process of graphene flakes and interconnecting tremendous number of resistance elements which were obtained by fractionizing each piece of graphene. With strain increasing, the overlapping graphenes was dislocated on new stretched simulation graphene flake simulation film and a new simulation resistance network was formed with smaller flake number density. By solving the resistance network, we can get the resistance of simulation film under different strain. Furthermore, by simulation on possible variable parameters, such as out-of-plane resistance, in-plane resistance, flake size, we obtained the changing tendency of gauge factor with all these variable parameters. Compared with the experimental data, we verified the feasibility of our model and analysis. The increase of out-of-plane resistance of graphene flake and the initial resistance of sensor, based on flake network, both improved gauge factor of sensor, while the smaller graphene flake size gave greater gauge factor. This work can not only serve as a guideline to improve the sensitivity and applicability of graphene-based strain sensors in the future, but also provides method to find the limitation of gauge factor for strain sensor based on graphene flake. Besides, our method can be easily transferred to predict gauge factor of strain sensor based on other nano-structured transparent optical conductors, such as nanowire and carbon nanotube, or of their hybrid with graphene flakes.

Keywords: graphene, gauge factor, percolative transport, strain sensor

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Authors: Shivan Sirdy

Abstract:

In this study, we discuss the properties of absolute void space or the universe at zero seconds, and how these properties play a vital role in creating a mechanism in which the very first particle gets created simultaneously everywhere. We find the limit in which when the absolute void volume reaches will lead to the collapse that leads to the creation of the first particle. This discussion is made following the elementary dimensions theory study that was peer-reviewed at the end of 2020; everything in the universe is made from four elementary dimensions, these dimensions are the three spatial dimensions (X, Y, and Z) and the Void resistance as the factor of change among the four. Time itself was not considered as the fourth dimension. Rather time corresponds to a factor of change, and during the research, it was found out that the Void resistance is the factor of change in the absolute Void space, where time is a hypothetical concept that represents changes during certain events compared to a constant change rate event. Therefore, time does exist, but as a factor of change as the Void resistance: Time= factor of change= Void resistance.

Keywords: elementary dimensions, absolute void, time alternative, early universe, universe at zero second, Void resistant, Hydrogen atom, Hadron field, Lepton field

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Authors: Kedar Hardikar, Joe Varghese

Abstract:

Conductive adhesives have found wide-ranging applications in electronics industry ranging from fixing a defective conductor on printed circuit board (PCB) attaching an electronic component in an assembly to protecting electronics components by the formation of “Faraday Cage.” The reliability requirements for the conductive adhesive vary widely depending on the application and expected product lifetime. While the conductive adhesive is required to maintain the structural integrity, the electrical performance of the associated sub-assembly can be affected by the degradation of conductive adhesive. The degradation of the adhesive is dependent upon the highly varied use case. The conventional approach to assess the reliability of the sub-assembly involves subjecting it to the standard environmental test conditions such as high-temperature high humidity, thermal cycling, high-temperature exposure to name a few. In order to enable projection of test data and observed failures to predict field performance, systematic development of an acceleration factor between the test conditions and field conditions is crucial. Common acceleration factor models such as Arrhenius model are based on rate kinetics and typically rely on an assumption of linear degradation in time for a given condition and test duration. The application of interest in this work involves conductive adhesive used in an electronic circuit of a capacitive sensor. The degradation of conductive adhesive in high temperature and humidity environment is quantified by the capacitance values. Under such conditions, the use of established models such as Hallberg-Peck model or Eyring Model to predict time to failure in the field typically relies on linear degradation rate. In this particular case, it is seen that the degradation is nonlinear in time and exhibits a square root t dependence. It is also shown that for the mechanism of interest, the presence of moisture is essential, and the dominant mechanism driving the degradation is the diffusion of moisture. In this work, a framework is developed to incorporate nonlinear degradation of the conductive adhesive for the development of an acceleration factor. This method can be extended to applications where nonlinearity in degradation rate can be adequately characterized in tests. It is shown that depending on the expected product lifetime, the use of conventional linear degradation approach can overestimate or underestimate the field performance. This work provides guidelines for suitability of linear degradation approximation for such varied applications

Keywords: conductive adhesives, nonlinear degradation, physics of failure, acceleration factor model.

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