Search results for: statistically independent
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4059

Search results for: statistically independent

3789 Receptor-Independent Effects of Endocannabinoid Anandamide on Contractility and Electrophysiological Properties of Rat Ventricular Myocytes

Authors: Lina T. Al Kury, Oleg I. Voitychuk, Ramiz M. Ali, Sehamuddin Galadari, Keun-Hang Susan Yang, Frank Christopher Howarth, Yaroslav M. Shuba, Murat Oz

Abstract:

A role for anandamide (N-arachidonoyl ethanolamide; AEA), a major endocannabinoid, in the cardiovascular system in various pathological conditions has been reported in earlier studies. In the present work, we have hypothesized that the antiarrhythmic effects reported for AEA are due to its negative inotropic effect and altered action potential (AP) characteristics. Therefore, we tested the effects of AEA on contractility and electrophysiological properties of rat ventricular myocytes. Video edge detection was used to measure myocyte shortening. Intracellular Ca2+ was measured in cells loaded with the fluorescent indicator fura-2 AM. Whole-cell patch-clamp technique was employed to investigate the effect of AEA on the characteristics of APs. AEA (1 μM) caused a significant decrease in the amplitudes of electrically-evoked myocyte shortening and Ca2+ transients and significantly decreased the duration of AP. The effect of AEA on myocyte shortening and AP characteristics was not altered in the presence of pertussis toxin (PTX, 2 µg/ml for 4 h), AM251 and SR141716 (cannabinoid type 1 receptor antagonists) or AM630 and SR 144528 (cannabinoid type 2 receptor antagonists). Furthermore, AEA inhibited voltage-activated inward Na+ (INa) and Ca2+ (IL,Ca) currents; major ionic currents shaping the APs in ventricular myocytes, in a voltage and PTX-independent manner. Collectively, the results suggest that AEA depresses ventricular myocyte contractility, by decreasing the action potential duration (APD), and inhibits the function of voltage-dependent Na+ and L-type Ca2+ channels in a manner independent of cannabinoid receptors. This mechanism may be importantly involved in the antiarrhythmic effects of anandamide.

Keywords: action potential, anandamide, cannabinoid receptor, endocannabinoid, ventricular myocytes

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3788 Future Student Service Organization - Road Map

Authors: Michael Postert

Abstract:

The Studierendenwerke are legally independent public foundations with a one-century-old history in the German university community. Like the French CROUS, the Italian ANDISU or the Japanese University COOPs, they are set-up to serve the university and student needs. They are legally independent of their client institutions and student stakeholders. Initially set up as a support organization by students for students they have evolved to public business institutions with an annual turnover of EUR 100 Million or more. They are usually engaged in business areas such as student housing, restaurants, student grants, governmental scholarships and counselling services. These institutions are facing major changes over the next few years. The COVID19 pandemic and its impact on the educational system will unavoidably have an immense impact on the German student service organizations (Studierendenwerke). Issues such as digitalization and sustainability will have a huge impact on how the future business model of the Studierendenwerke will look like. The paper will discuss the aims and challenges of this development that started already before the COVID19 pandemic. In light of the way the educational system of the future will look like, the Studierendenwerke have to develop as well.

Keywords: business model, digitalization, education, student services

Procedia PDF Downloads 200
3787 Quality of Life and Renal Biomarkers in Feline Chronic Kidney Disease

Authors: Bárbara Durão, Pedro Almeida, David Ramilo, André Meneses, Rute Canejo-Teixeira

Abstract:

The importance of quality of life (QoL) assessment in veterinary medicine is an integral part of patient care. This is especially true in cases of chronic diseases, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD), where the ever more advanced treatment options prolong the patient’s life. Whether this prolongment of life comes with an acceptable quality of life remains has been called into question. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between CKD disease biomarkers and QoL in cats. Thirty-seven cats diagnosed with CKD and with no known concurrent illness were enrolled in an observational study. Through the course of several evaluations, renal biomarkers were assessed in blood and urine samples, and owners retrospectively described their cat’s quality of life using a validated instrument for this disease. Correlations between QoL scores (AWIS) and the biomarkers were assessed using Spearman’s rank test. Statistical significance was set at p-value < 0.05, and every serial sample was considered independent. Thirty-seven cats met the inclusion criteria, and all owners completed the questionnaire every time their pet was evaluated, giving a total of eighty-four questionnaires, and the average-weighted-impact-score was –0.5. Results showed there was a statistically significant correlation between the quality of life and most of 17 the studied biomarkers and confirmed that CKD has a negative impact on QoL in cats especially due to the management of the disease and secondary appetite disorders. To our knowledge, this is the attempt to assess the correlation between renal biomarkers and QoL in cats. Our results reveal a strong potential of this type of approach in clinical management, mainly in situations where it is not possible to measure biomarkers. Whilst health-related QoL is a reliable predictor of mortality and morbidity in humans; our findings can help improve the clinical practice in cats with CKD.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, biomarkers, quality of life, feline

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
3786 The Effect of Energy Consumption and Losses on the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector: Evidence from the ARDL Approach

Authors: Okezie A. Ihugba

Abstract:

The bounds testing ARDL (2, 2, 2, 2, 0) technique to cointegration was used in this study to investigate the effect of energy consumption and energy loss on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2020. The model was created to determine the relationship between these three variables while also accounting for interactions with control variables such as inflation and commercial bank loans to the manufacturing sector. When the dependent variables are energy consumption and energy loss, the bounds tests show that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run. Because electricity consumption is a critical factor in determining manufacturing value-added in Nigeria, some intriguing observations were made. According to the findings, the relationship between LELC and LMVA is statistically significant. According to the findings, electricity consumption reduces manufacturing value-added. The target variable (energy loss) is statistically significant and has a positive sign. In Nigeria, a 1% reduction in energy loss increases manufacturing value-added by 36% in the first lag and 35% in the second. According to the study, the government should speed up the ongoing renovation of existing power plants across the country, as well as the construction of new gas-fired power plants. This will address a number of issues, including overpricing of electricity as a result of grid failure.

Keywords: L60, Q43, H81, C52, E31, ARDL, cointegration, Nigeria's manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
3785 Rehabilitation of CP Using Pediatric Functional Independent Measure (WeeFIM) as Indicator Instruments Suitable for CP: Saudi's Perspective

Authors: Bara M. Yousef

Abstract:

Kingdome of Saudi Arabia (KSA). High numbers of traffic accidents with sever, moderate and mild level of impairments admits to Sultan bin Abdulaziz humanitarian city. Over a period of 4 months the city received 111 male and 79 female subjects with CP, who received 4-6 weeks of rehabilitation and using WeeFIM score to measure rehabilitation outcomes. WeeFIM measures and covers various domains, such as: self-care, mobility, locomotion, communication and other psycho-social aspects. Our findings shed the light on the fact that nearly 85% of people at admission got better after rehabilitation program services at individual sever moderate and mild and has arrange of (59 out of 128 WeeFIM score) and by the time of discharge they leave the city with better FIM score close to (72 out of 128 WeeFIM score) for the entire study sample. WeeFIM score is providing fair evidence to rehabilitation specialists to assess their outcomes. However there is a need to implement other instruments and compare it to WeeFIM in order to reach better outcomes at discharge level.

Keywords: Cerepral Palsy (CP), pediatric Functional Independent Measure (WeeFIM), rehabilitation, disability

Procedia PDF Downloads 200
3784 Parental Bonding and Cognitive Emotion Regulation

Authors: Fariea Bakul, Chhanda Karmaker

Abstract:

The present study was designed to investigate the effects of parental bonding on adult’s cognitive emotion regulation and also to investigate gender differences in parental bonding and cognitive emotion regulation. Data were collected by using convenience sampling technique from 100 adult students (50 males and 50 females) of different universities of Dhaka city, ages between 20 to 25 years, using Bengali version of Parental Bonding Inventory and Bengali version of Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire. The obtained data were analyzed by using multiple regression analysis and independent samples t-test. The results revealed that fathers care (β =0.317, p < 0.05) was only significantly positively associated with adult’s cognitive emotion regulation. Adjusted R² indicated that the model explained 30% of the variance in adult’s adaptive cognitive emotion regulation. No significant association was found between parental bonding and less adaptive cognitive emotion regulations. Results from independent samples t-test also revealed that there was no significant gender difference in both parental bonding and cognitive emotion regulations.

Keywords: cognitive emotion regulation, parental bonding, parental care, parental over-protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 341
3783 Comparison between the Quadratic and the Cubic Linked Interpolation on the Mindlin Plate Four-Node Quadrilateral Finite Elements

Authors: Dragan Ribarić

Abstract:

We employ the so-called problem-dependent linked interpolation concept to develop two cubic 4-node quadrilateral Mindlin plate finite elements with 12 external degrees of freedom. In the problem-independent linked interpolation, the interpolation functions are independent of any problem material parameters and the rotation fields are not expressed in terms of the nodal displacement parameters. On the contrary, in the problem-dependent linked interpolation, the interpolation functions depend on the material parameters and the rotation fields are expressed in terms of the nodal displacement parameters. Two cubic 4-node quadrilateral plate elements are presented, named Q4-U3 and Q4-U3R5. The first one is modelled with one displacement and two rotation degrees of freedom in every of the four element nodes and the second element has five additional internal degrees of freedom to get polynomial completeness of the cubic form and which can be statically condensed within the element. Both elements are able to pass the constant-bending patch test exactly as well as the non-zero constant-shear patch test on the oriented regular mesh geometry in the case of cylindrical bending. In any mesh shape, the elements have the correct rank and only the three eigenvalues, corresponding to the solid body motions are zero. There are no additional spurious zero modes responsible for instability of the finite element models. In comparison with the problem-independent cubic linked interpolation implemented in Q9-U3, the nine-node plate element, significantly less degrees of freedom are employed in the model while retaining the interpolation conformity between adjacent elements. The presented elements are also compared to the existing problem-independent quadratic linked-interpolation element Q4-U2 and to the other known elements that also use the quadratic or the cubic linked interpolation, by testing them on several benchmark examples. Simple functional upgrading from the quadratic to the cubic linked interpolation, implemented in Q4-U3 element, showed no significant improvement compared to the quadratic linked form of the Q4-U2 element. Only when the additional bubble terms are incorporated in the displacement and rotation function fields, which complete the full cubic linked interpolation form, qualitative improvement is fulfilled in the Q4-U3R5 element. Nevertheless, the locking problem exists even for the both presented elements, like in all pure displacement elements when applied to very thin plates modelled by coarse meshes. But good and even slightly better performance can be noticed for the Q4-U3R5 element when compared with elements from the literature, if the model meshes are moderately dense and the plate thickness not extremely thin. In some cases, it is comparable to or even better than Q9-U3 element which has as many as 12 more external degrees of freedom. A significant improvement can be noticed in particular when modeling very skew plates and models with singularities in the stress fields as well as circular plates with distorted meshes.

Keywords: Mindlin plate theory, problem-independent linked interpolation, problem-dependent interpolation, quadrilateral displacement-based plate finite elements

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3782 Diabetes Mellitus and Blood Glucose Variability Increases the 30-day Readmission Rate after Kidney Transplantation

Authors: Harini Chakkera

Abstract:

Background: Inpatient hyperglycemia is an established independent risk factor among several patient cohorts with hospital readmission. This has not been studied after kidney transplantation. Nearly one-third of patients who have undergone a kidney transplant reportedly experience 30-day readmission. Methods: Data on first-time solitary kidney transplantations were retrieved between September 2015 to December 2018. Information was linked to the electronic health record to determine a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and extract glucometeric and insulin therapy data. Univariate logistic regression analysis and the XGBoost algorithm were used to predict 30-day readmission. We report the average performance of the models on the testing set on five bootstrapped partitions of the data to ensure statistical significance. Results: The cohort included 1036 patients who received kidney transplantation, and 224 (22%) experienced 30-day readmission. The machine learning algorithm was able to predict 30-day readmission with an average AUC of 77.3% (95% CI 75.30-79.3%). We observed statistically significant differences in the presence of pretransplant diabetes, inpatient-hyperglycemia, inpatient-hypoglycemia, and minimum and maximum glucose values among those with higher 30-day readmission rates. The XGBoost model identified the index admission length of stay, presence of hyper- and hypoglycemia and recipient and donor BMI values as the most predictive risk factors of 30-day readmission. Additionally, significant variations in the therapeutic management of blood glucose by providers were observed. Conclusions: Suboptimal glucose metrics during hospitalization after kidney transplantation is associated with an increased risk for 30-day hospital readmission. Optimizing the hospital blood glucose management, a modifiable factor, after kidney transplantation may reduce the risk of 30-day readmission.

Keywords: kidney, transplant, diabetes, insulin

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3781 Collaboration between Dietician and Occupational Therapist, Promotes Independent Functional Eating in Tube Weaning Process of Mechanical Ventilated Patients

Authors: Inbal Zuriely, Yonit Weiss, Hilla Zaharoni, Hadas Lewkowicz, Tatiana Vander, Tarif Bader

Abstract:

early active movement, along with adjusting optimal nutrition, prevents aggravation of muscle degeneracy and functional decline. Eating is a basic activity of daily life, which reflects the patient's independence. When eating and feeding are experienced successfully, they lead to a sense of pleasure and satisfaction. However, when they are experienced as a difficulty, they might evoke feelings of helplessness and frustration. This stresses the essential process of gradual weaning off the enteral feeding tube. the work describes the collaboration of a dietitian, determining the nutritional needs of patients undergoing enteral tube weaning as part of the rehabilitation process, with the suited treatment of an occupational therapist. Occupational therapy intervention regarding eating capabilities focuses on improving the required motor and cognitive components, along with environmental adjustments and aids, imparting eating strategies and training to patients and their families. The project was conducted in the long-term, ventilated patients’ department at the Herzfeld Rehabilitation Geriatric Medical Center on patients undergoing enteral tube weaning with the staff’s assistance. Establishing continuous collaboration between the dietician and the occupational therapist, starting from the beginning of the feeding-tube weaning process: 1.The dietician updates the occupational therapist about the start of the process and the approved diet. 2.The occupational therapist performs cognitive, motor, and functional assessments and treatments regarding the patient’s eating capabilities and recommends the required adjustments for independent eating according to the FIM (Functional Independence Measure) scale. 3.The occupational therapist closely follows up on the patient’s degree of independence in eating and provides a repeated update to the dietician. 4.The dietician accordingly guides the ward staff on whether and how to feed the patient or allow independent eating. The project aimed to promote patients toward independent feeding, which leads to a sense of empowerment, enjoyment of the eating experience, and progress of functional ability, along with performing active movements that will motivate mobilization. From the beginning of 2022, 26 patients participated in the project. 79% of all patients who started the weaning process from tube feeding achieved different levels of independence in feeding (independence levels ranged from supervision (FIM-5) to complete independence (FIM-7). The integration of occupational therapy and dietary treatment is based on a patient-centered approach while considering the patient’s personal needs, preferences, and goals. This interdisciplinary partnership is essential for meeting the complex needs of prolonged mechanically ventilated patients and promotes independent functioning and quality of life.

Keywords: dietary, mechanical ventilation, occupational therapy, tube feeding weaning

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3780 “Uninformed” Religious Orientation Can Lead to Violence in Any Given Community: The Case of African Independence Churches in South Africa

Authors: Ngwako Daniel Sebola

Abstract:

Introductory Statement: Religions are necessary as they offer and teach something to their adherence. People in one religion may not have a complete understanding of the Supreme Being (Deity) in a certain religion other than their own. South Africa, like other countries in the world, consists of various religions, including Christianity. Almost 80% of South African population adheres to the Christian faith, though in different denominations and sects. Each church fulfils spiritual needs that perhaps others cannot fill. African Independent Churches is one of the denominations in the country. These churches arose as a protest to the Western forms and expressions of Christianity. Their major concern was to develop an indigenous expression of Christianity. The relevance of African Independent Churches includes addressing the needs of the people holistically. Controlling diseases was an important aspect of change in different historical periods. Through healing services, leaders of African churches are able to attract many followers. The healing power associated with the founders of many African Initiated Churches leads to people following and respecting them as true leaders within many African communities. Despite its strong points, African Independent Churches, like many others, face a variety of challenges, especially conflicts. Ironically, destructive conflicts resulted in violence.. Such violence demonstrates a lack of informed religious orientation among those concerned. This paper investigates and analyses the causes of conflict and violence in the African Independent Church. The researcher used the Shembe and International Pentecostal Holiness Churches, in South Africa, as a point of departure. As a solution to curb violence, the researcher suggests useful strategies in handling conflicts. Methodology: Comparative and qualitative approaches have been used as methods of collecting data in this research. The intention is to analyse the similarities and differences of violence among members of the Shembe and International Pentecostal Holiness Churches. Equally important, the researcher aims to obtain data through interviews, questionnaires, focus groups, among others. The researcher aims to interview fifteen individuals from both churches. Finding: Leadership squabbles and power struggle appear to be the main contributing factors of violence in many Independent Churches. Ironically, violence resulted in the loss of life and destruction of properties, like in the case of the Shembe and International Pentecostal Holiness Churches. Violence is an indication that congregations and some leaders have not been properly equipped to deal with conflict. Concluding Statement: Conflict is a common part of every human existence in any given community. The concern is when such conflict becomes contagious; it leads to violence. There is a need to understand consciously and objectively towards devising the appropriate measures to handle the conflict. Conflict management calls for emotional maturity, self-control, empathy, patience, tolerance and informed religious orientation.

Keywords: African, church, religion, violence

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
3779 The Impact of Blended Learning on Developing the students' Writing Skills and the Perception of Instructors and Students: Hawassa University in Focus

Authors: Mulu G. Gencha, Gebremedhin Simon, Menna Olango

Abstract:

This study was conducted at Hawassa University (HwU) in the Southern Nation Nationalities Peoples Regional State (SNNPRS) of Ethiopia. The prime concern of this study was to examine the writing performances of experimental and control group students, perception of experimental group students, and subject instructors. The course was blended learning (BL). Blended learning is a hybrid of classroom and on-line learning. Participants were eighty students from the School of Computer Science. Forty students attended the BL delivery involved using Face-to-Face (FTF) and campus-based online instruction. All instructors, fifty, of School of Language and Communication Studies along with 10 FGD members participated in the study. The experimental group went to the computer lab two times a week for four months, March-June, 2012, using the local area network (LAN), and software (MOODLE) writing program. On the other hand, the control group, forty students, took the FTF writing course five times a week for four months in similar academic calendar. The three instruments, the attitude questionnaire, tests and FGD were designed to identify views of students, instructors, and FGD participants on BL. At the end of the study, students’ final course scores were evaluated. Data were analyzed using independent samples t-tests. A statistically, significant difference was found between the FTF and BL (p<0.05). The analysis showed that the BL group was more successful than the conventional group. Besides, both instructors and students had positive attitude towards BL. The final section of the thesis showed the potential benefits and challenges, considering the pedagogical implications for the BL, and recommended possible avenues for further works.

Keywords: blended learning, computer attitudes, computer usefulness, computer liking, computer confidence, computer phobia

Procedia PDF Downloads 391
3778 An Exploration of Promoting EFL Students’ Language Learning Autonomy Using Multimodal Teaching - A Case Study of an Art University in Western China

Authors: Dian Guan

Abstract:

With the wide application of multimedia and the Internet, the development of teaching theories, and the implementation of teaching reforms, many different university English classroom teaching modes have emerged. The university English teaching mode is changing from the traditional teaching mode based on conversation and text to the multimodal English teaching mode containing discussion, pictures, audio, film, etc. Applying university English teaching models is conducive to cultivating lifelong learning skills. In addition, lifelong learning skills can also be called learners' autonomous learning skills. Learners' independent learning ability has a significant impact on English learning. However, many university students, especially art and design students, don't know how to learn individually. When they become university students, their English foundation is a relative deficiency because they always remember the language in a traditional way, which, to a certain extent, neglects the cultivation of English learners' independent ability. As a result, the autonomous learning ability of most university students is not satisfactory. The participants in this study were 60 students and one teacher in their first year at a university in western China. Two observations and interviews were conducted inside and outside the classroom to understand the impact of a multimodal teaching model of university English on students' autonomous learning ability. The results were analyzed, and it was found that the multimodal teaching model of university English significantly affected learners' autonomy. Incorporating classroom presentations and poster exhibitions into multimodal teaching can increase learners' interest in learning and enhance their learning ability outside the classroom. However, further exploration is needed to develop multimodal teaching materials and evaluate multimodal teaching outcomes. Despite the limitations of this study, the study adopts a scientific research method to analyze the impact of the multimodal teaching mode of university English on students' independent learning ability. It puts forward a different outlook for further research on this topic.

Keywords: art university, EFL education, learner autonomy, multimodal pedagogy

Procedia PDF Downloads 54
3777 An Exploration of the Association Between the Physical Activity and Academic Performance in Internship Medical Students

Authors: Ali Ashraf, Ghazaleh Aghaee, Sedigheh Samimian, Mohaya Farzin

Abstract:

Objectives: Previous studies have indicated the positive effect of physical activity and sports on different aspects of health, such as muscle endurance and sleep cycle. However, in university students, particularly medical students, who have limited time and a stressful lifestyle, there have been limited studies exploring this matter with proven statistical results. In this regard, this study aims to find out how regular physical activity can influence the academic performance of medical students during their internship period. Methods: This was a descriptive-analytical study. Overall, 160 medical students (including 80 women and 88 men) voluntarily participated in the study. The Baecke Physical Activity Questionnaire was applied to determine the student’s physical activity levels. The student's academic performance was determined based on their total average academic scores. The data were analyzed in SPSS version 16 software using the independent t-test, Pearson correlation, and linear regression. Results: The average age of the students was 26.0±1.5 years. Eighty-eight students (52.4%) were male, and 142 (84.5%) were single. The student's mean total average academic score was 16.2±1.2, and their average physical activity score was 8.3±1.1. The student's average academic score was not associated with their gender (P=0.427), marital status (P=0.645), and age (P=0.320). However, married students had a significantly lower physical activity level compared to single students (P=0.020). The results indicated a significant positive correlation between student's physical activity levels and average academic scores (r=+0.410 and P<0.001). This correlation was independent of the student’s age, gender, and marital status based on the regression analysis. Conclusion: The results of the current study suggested that the physical activity level in medical students was low to moderate in most cases, and there was a significant direct relationship between student’s physical activity level and academic performance, independent of age, gender, and marital status.

Keywords: exercise, education, physical activity, academic performance

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3776 Empowering Children through Co-creation: Writing a Book with and for Children about Their First Steps Towards Urban Independence

Authors: Beata Patuszynska

Abstract:

Children are largely absent from Polish social discourse, a fact which is mirrored in urban planning processes. Their absence creates a vicious circle – an unfriendly urban space discourages children from going outside on their own, meaning adults do not see a need to make spaces more friendly for a group, not present. The pandemic and lockdown, with their closed schools and temporary ban on unaccompanied minors on the streets, have only reinforced this. The project – co-writing with children a book concerning their first steps into urban independence - aims at empowering children, enabling them to find their voice when it comes to urban space. The foundation for the book was data collected during research and workshops with children from Warsaw primary schools, aged 7-10 - the age they begin independent travel in the city. The project was carried out with the participation and involvement of children at each creative step. Children were (1) models: the narrator is an 7-year-old boy getting ready for urban independence. He shares his experience as well as the experience of his school friends and his 10-year-old sister, who already travels on her own. Children were (2) teachers: the book is based on authentic children’s stories and experience, along with the author’s findings from research undertaken with children. The material was extended by observations and conclusions made during the pandemic. Children were (3) reviewers: a series of draft chapters from the book underwent review by children during workshops performed in a school. The process demonstrated that all children experience similar pleasures and worries when it comes to interaction with urban space. Furthermore, they also have similar needs that need satisfying. In my article, I will discuss; (1) the advantages of creating together with children; (2) my conclusions on how to work with children in participatory processes; (3) research results: perceptions of urban space by children age 7-10, when they begin their independent travel in the city; the barriers to and pleasures derived from independent urban travel; the influence of the pandemic on children’s feelings and their behaviour in urban spaces.

Keywords: children, urban space, co-creation, participation, human rights

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
3775 Modeling the Impacts of Road Construction on Lands Values

Authors: Maha Almumaiz, Harry Evdorides

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Change in land value typically occurs when a new interurban road construction causes an increase in accessibility; this change in the adjacent lands values differs according to land characteristics such as geographic location, land use type, land area and sale time (appraisal time). A multiple regression model is obtained to predict the percent change in land value (CLV) based on four independent variables namely land distance from the constructed road, area of land, nature of land use and time from the works completion of the road. The random values of percent change in land value were generated using Microsoft Excel with a range of up to 35%. The trend of change in land value with the four independent variables was determined from the literature references. The statistical analysis and model building process has been made by using the IBM SPSS V23 software. The Regression model suggests, for lands that are located within 3 miles as the straight distance from the road, the percent CLV is between (0-35%) which is depending on many factors including distance from the constructed road, land use, land area and time from works completion of the new road.

Keywords: interurban road, land use types, new road construction, percent CLV, regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
3774 A Near-Optimal Domain Independent Approach for Detecting Approximate Duplicates

Authors: Abdelaziz Fellah, Allaoua Maamir

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We propose a domain-independent merging-cluster filter approach complemented with a set of algorithms for identifying approximate duplicate entities efficiently and accurately within a single and across multiple data sources. The near-optimal merging-cluster filter (MCF) approach is based on the Monge-Elkan well-tuned algorithm and extended with an affine variant of the Smith-Waterman similarity measure. Then we present constant, variable, and function threshold algorithms that work conceptually in a divide-merge filtering fashion for detecting near duplicates as hierarchical clusters along with their corresponding representatives. The algorithms take recursive refinement approaches in the spirit of filtering, merging, and updating, cluster representatives to detect approximate duplicates at each level of the cluster tree. Experiments show a high effectiveness and accuracy of the MCF approach in detecting approximate duplicates by outperforming the seminal Monge-Elkan’s algorithm on several real-world benchmarks and generated datasets.

Keywords: data mining, data cleaning, approximate duplicates, near-duplicates detection, data mining applications and discovery

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3773 Comparison of Selected Behavioural Patterns of German Shepherd Puppies in Open-Field Test by Practical Assessment Report

Authors: Igor Miňo, Lenka Lešková

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Over the past 80 years, open-field method has evolved as a commonly used tool for the analysis of animal behaviour. The study was carried out using 50 kennel-reared purebred puppies of the German Shepherd dog breed. All dogs were tested in 5th, 7th, and 9th week of age. For the purpose of behavioural analysis, an open-field evaluation report was designed prior to testing to ensure the most convenient, rapid, and suitable way to assess selected behavioural patterns in field conditions. Onset of vocalisation, intensity of vocalisation, level of physical activity, response to sound, and overall behaviour was monitored in the study. Correlations between measures of height, weight and chest circumference, and behavioural characteristics in the 5th, 7th, and 9th week of age were not statistically significant. Onset of vocalisation, intensity of vocalisation, level of physical activity and response to sound differed on statistically significant level between 5th, 7th, and 9th week of age. Results suggest that our practical assessment report may be used as an applicable method to evaluate the suitability of service dog puppies for future working roles.

Keywords: dog, behaviour, open-field, testing

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3772 Evaluation of Prehabilitation Prior to Surgery for an Orthopaedic Pathway

Authors: Stephen McCarthy, Joanne Gray, Esther Carr, Gerard Danjoux, Paul Baker, Rhiannon Hackett

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Background: The Go Well Health (GWH) platform is a web-based programme that allows patients to access personalised care plans and resources, aimed at prehabilitation prior to surgery. The online digital platform delivers essential patient education and support for patients prior to undergoing total hip replacements (THR) and total knee replacements (TKR). This study evaluated the impact of an online digital platform (ODP) in terms of functional health outcomes, health related quality of life and hospital length of stay following surgery. Methods: A retrospective cohort study comparing a cohort of patients who used the online digital platform (ODP) to deliver patient education and support (PES) prior to undergoing THR and TKR surgery relative to a cohort of patients who did not access the ODP and received usual care. Routinely collected Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) data was obtained on 2,406 patients who underwent a knee replacement (n=1,160) or a hip replacement (n=1,246) between 2018 and 2019 in a single surgical centre in the United Kingdom. The Oxford Hip and Knee Score and the European Quality of Life Five-Dimensional tool (EQ5D-5L) was obtained both pre-and post-surgery (at 6 months) along with hospital LOS. Linear regression was used to compare the estimate the impact of GWH on both health outcomes and negative binomial regressions were used to impact on LOS. All analyses adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Score and either pre-operative Oxford Hip/Knee scores or pre-operative EQ-5D scores. Fractional polynomials were used to represent potential non-linear relationships between the factors included in the regression model. Findings: For patients who underwent a knee replacement, GWH had a statistically significant impact on Oxford Knee Scores and EQ5D-5L utility post-surgery (p=0.039 and p=0.002 respectively). GWH did not have a statistically significant impact on the hospital length of stay. For those patients who underwent a hip replacement, GWH had a statistically significant impact on Oxford Hip Scores and EQ5D-5L utility post (p=0.000 and p=0.009 respectively). GWH also had a statistically significant reduction in the hospital length of stay (p=0.000). Conclusion: Health Outcomes were higher for patients who used the GWH platform and underwent THR and TKR relative to those who received usual care prior to surgery. Patients who underwent a hip replacement and used GWH also had a reduced hospital LOS. These findings are important for health policy and or decision makers as they suggest that prehabilitation via an ODP can maximise health outcomes for patients following surgery whilst potentially making efficiency savings with reductions in LOS.

Keywords: digital prehabilitation, online digital platform, orthopaedics, surgery

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3771 Impact of Hormone Replacement Therapy on Body Composition Analysis of Women during Perimenopause: A Framework for Action

Authors: Varsha Chorsiya, Pooja Aneja, Dhananjay Kaushik, Abhinav Yadav

Abstract:

Intoduction: Women’s Health Initiatives (WHI) focuses on defining the risks and benefits of strategies that could potentially reduce the incidence of obesity, heart disease, breast cancer and colorectal cancer, and fractures in menopause women. The utility of the present research work determines to find the role of Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) in changing the different component of body composition during perimenopause period. Methods: A comparative cross-sectional study included 30 subjects, aged between 40 and 50 years which were assigned into 2 groups i.e. 15 subjects in HRT (Group A) and 15 subjects in non-HRT (Group B). The subjects were taken from the hospitals and clinics of Faridabad undergoing HRT in supervision of the consultant gynecologist. The informed consents were signed before including the participants in the study. The body composition and lipid profile were evaluated for all the subjects. Result and Discussion: The BMI, body density, percent body fats and fat mass in both groups showed statistically significant differences i.e. p < 0.05. Our study did not reveal any statistically significant difference between non-HRT and HRT for lipid profile composition of HDL, LDL, VLDL, ratio, triglycerides and total cholesterol although these indicators (LDL, VLDL, ratio, triglycerides and total cholesterol) showed difference clinically with a higher mean values for non-HRT as compared to HRT group. The mean value for HDL was higher for HRT group in contrast to non-HRT group. The result clearly showed that HRT group has a good lipid profile composition. Conclusion: In conclusion, our data show that HRT has statistically significant role in determining BMI, fat percent mass and fat mass. The lipid profile including LDL, HDL, VLDL, ratio, triglycerides and total cholesterol found to be clinically better in HRT group as compared to the non-HRT group. The rationale for non-significant lipid profile probably lie in the fact that hormonal changes need a particular time period and might become significant in post-menopausal period.

Keywords: body composition, hormone replacement therapy, perimenopause, women health

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3770 Relationships between Financial, Cultural, Emotional, and General Wellbeing: A Structural Equation Modeling Study

Authors: Michael Alsop, Hannah Heitz, Prathiba Natesan Batley, Marion Hambrick, Jason Immekus

Abstract:

The impacts of cultural engagement on individuals’ health and well-being have been well documented. The purposes of this study were to create an instrument to measure wellbeing constructs, including cultural wellbeing, and explore the relationships between cultural wellbeing and other wellbeing constructs (e.g., emotional, social, physical, spiritual). A sample of 358 participants attending concerts performed by a civic orchestra in the southeastern United States completed a questionnaire designed to measure eight wellbeing constructs. Split-half exploratory, confirmatory factor analyses resulted in the retention of four wellbeing constructs: general, emotional, financial, and cultural. Structural equation modeling showed statistically significant relationships between cultural wellbeing and other wellbeing constructs. In addition to the indirect effect of financial wellbeing on emotional and general wellbeing through cultural wellbeing, there were also direct statistically significant relationships (i.e., moderator). This highlights the importance of removing financial barriers to cultural engagement and the relationship between cultural wellbeing on emotional and general wellbeing. Additionally, the retained cultural wellbeing items focused primarily on community features, indicating the value of community-based cultural engagement opportunities.

Keywords: cultural wellbeing, cultural engagement, factor analysis, structural equation modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 50
3769 Assessing Female Students' Understanding of the Solar System Concepts by Implementing I-Cube Technology

Authors: Elham Ghazi Mohammad

Abstract:

This study examined the female students’ understanding for the solar system concepts through the utilization of the I-Cube technology as a virtual reality technology. The study conducted in Qatar University for samples of students of eighth and ninth preparatory grade students in the State of Qatar. The research framework comprises designated quantitative research designs and methods of data collection and analysis including pre- and post-conceptual exams. This research based on experimental method design that focuses on students’ performance and conceptual questions. A group of 120 students from the eighth and ninth groups were divided into two pools of 60 students each, where the two 60-student groups represent the designated control and treatment groups. It must be mentioned that the students were selected randomly from the eighth and ninth grades. The solar system lesson of interest was taught by teacher candidates (senior students at the college of Education at QU), who taught both the experimental group (integrating I-cube) in virtual lab in Qatar University and control group (without integrating this technology) in one of independent school in the State of Qatar. It is noteworthy to mention that the students usually face some difficulties to learn by imagining real situation such as solar system and inner planet lesson. Collected data was statistically analyzed using one-way ANOVA and one-way ANCOVA using SPSS Statistics. The obtained results revealed that integrating I-Cube technology has significantly enhanced female students’ conceptual understanding of the solar system. Interestingly, our findings demonstrated the applicability of utilizing integrating I-Cube technology toward enhancing the students’ understanding regarding subjects of interests within the landscapes of basic sciences.

Keywords: virtual lab, integrating technology, I-Cube, solar system

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3768 Relation between Copper, Lipid Profile, and Cognition in Elderly Jordanians

Authors: Eman Al-khateeba, Ebaa Al-Zayadneha, Osama Al-Dalahmahb, Zeinab Alawadib, Faisal Khatiba, Randa Naffaa, Yanal Shafagoj

Abstract:

The purpose of the current study was to examine the association of plasma copper and lipid concentrations with changes in cognitive function in elderly Jordanian individuals. The study population consisted of two groups; 52 subjects with dementia, and 50 controls. All individuals were screened with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Clock drawing test (CDT).Serum copper and lipid profile were assessed in all subjects, and the results were statistically evaluated at P < 0.05 level of significance. Dementia group had 10.1 % higher copper levels than controls however the difference was not statistically significant. No significant differences could be found between the two groups in lipid profile levels. There was no significant correlation between serum copper, lipid profile and cognitive decline in elderly Jordanians. Demographic variables indicate that educational level less than 12 years and illiterate demonstrated a 3.29 fold (p=0.026) and 6.29 fold (p=0.002) increase in risk of developing dementia, respectively. While coffee intake showed a protective effect against cognitive decline with 6.25 fold lower risk with increased coffee intake.

Keywords: copper, cholesterol, dementia, Alzheimer's disease, lipid profile, coffee

Procedia PDF Downloads 459
3767 Effect of Renin Angiotensin Pathway Inhibition on the Efficacy of Anti-programmed Cell Death (PD-1/L-1) Inhibitors in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients- Comparison of Single Hospital Retrospective Assessment to the Published Literature

Authors: Esther Friedlander, Philip Friedlander

Abstract:

The use of immunotherapy that inhibits programmed death-1 (PD-1) or its ligand PD-L1 confers survival benefits in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, approximately 45% of patients experience primary treatment resistance, necessitating the development of strategies to improve efficacy. While the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) has systemic hemodynamic effects, tissue-specific regulation exists along with modulation of immune activity in part through regulation of myeloid cell activity, leading to the hypothesis that RAS inhibition may improve anti-PD-1/L-1 efficacy. A retrospective analysis was conducted that included 173 advanced solid tumor cancer patients treated at Valley Hospital, a community Hospital in New Jersey, USA, who were treated with a PD-1/L-1 inhibitor in a defined time period showing a statistically significant relationship between RAS pathway inhibition (RASi through concomitant treatment with an ACE inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker) and positive efficacy to the immunotherapy that was independent of age, gender and cancer type. Subset analysis revealed strong numerical benefit for efficacy in both patients with squamous and nonsquamous NSCLC as determined by documented clinician assessment of efficacy and by duration of therapy. A PUBMED literature search was now conducted to identify studies assessing the effect of RAS pathway inhibition on anti-PD-1/L1 efficacy in advanced solid tumor patients and compare these findings to those seen in the Valley Hospital retrospective study with a focus on NSCLC specifically. A total of 11 articles were identified assessing the effects of RAS pathway inhibition on the efficacy of checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy in advanced cancer patients. Of the 11 studies, 10 assessed the effect on survival of RASi in the context of treatment with anti-PD-1/PD-L1, while one assessed the effect on CTLA-4 inhibition. Eight of the studies included patients with NSCLC, while the remaining 2 were specific to genitourinary malignancies. Of the 8 studies, two were specific to NSCLC patients, with the remaining 6 studies including a range of cancer types, of which NSCLC was one. Of these 6 studies, only 2 reported specific survival data for the NSCLC subpopulation. Patient characteristics, multivariate analysis data and efficacy data seen in the 2 NSLCLC specific studies and in the 2 basket studies, which provided data on the NSCLC subpopulation, were compared to that seen in the Valley Hospital retrospective study supporting a broader effect of RASi on anti-PD-1/L1 efficacy in advanced NSLCLC with the majority of studies showing statistically significant benefit or strong statistical trends but with one study demonstrating worsened outcomes. This comparison of studies extends published findings to the community hospital setting and supports prospective assessment through randomized clinical trials of efficacy in NSCLC patients with pharmacodynamic components to determine the effect on immune cell activity in tumors and on the composition of the tumor microenvironment.

Keywords: immunotherapy, cancer, angiotensin, efficacy, PD-1, lung cancer, NSCLC

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3766 Hematological Malignancies in Children and Parental Occupational Exposure

Authors: H. Kalboussi, A. Aloui, W. Boughattas, M. Maoua, A. Brahem, S. Chatti, O. El Maalel, F. Debbabi, N. Mrizak, Y. Ben Youssef, A. Khlif, I. Bougmiza

Abstract:

Background: In recent decades, the incidence of children's hematological malignancies has been increasing worldwide including Tunisia. Their severity is reflected in the importance of the medical, social and economic impact. This increase remains fully unexplained, and the involvement of genetic, environmental and occupational factors is strongly suspected. Materials and Methods: Our study is a cross-sectional survey of the type case-control conducted in the University Hospital of Farhat Hached of Sousse during the period ranging between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2012,and which included children with acute leukemia compared to children unharmed by neoplastic disease . Cases and controls were matched by age and gender. Our objective was to: - Describe the socio-occupational characteristics of the parents of children with acute leukemia. - Identify potential occupational factors implicated in the genesis of acute leukemia. Result: The number of acute leukemia cases in the Hematology Service and day hospital of the University Hospital of Farhat Hached during the study period was 66 cases divided into in 40 boys and 26 girls with a sex ratio of 1.53. Our cases and controls were matched by age and gender. The risk of incidence of leukemia in children from smoking fathers was higher (p = 0.02, OR = 2.24, IC = [1.11 - 4.52]). The risk of incidence of leukemia in children from alcoholic fathers was higher with p = 0,009, OR = 3.9; CI = [1.33 - 11.39]. After adjusting different variables, the difference persisted significantly with pa = 0.03 and ORa = 3.5; ICa = [1.09 -11.6]. 25.7 % of cases had a family history of blood disease and neoplasia, whereas no control presented that. The difference was statistically significant (p = 0.006), OR = 1.46, IC = [1.38 - 1.56]. The parental occupational exposures associated to the occurrence of acute leukemia in children were: - Pesticides with a statistically significant difference (p = 0.03), OR = 2.94, IC = [1.06 - 8.13]. This difference persisted after adjustment with different variables pa = 0.01, ORa 3.75; ICa = [1.27 - 11.03]. - Cement without a statistically non-significant difference (p = 0.2). This difference has become significant after adjustment with the different variables pa = 0.03; ORa = 2.67; ICa = [1.06 - 6.7]. Conclusion: Parental exposure to occupational risk factors may play a role in the pathogenesis of acute leukemia in children.

Keywords: hematological malignancies, children, parents, occupational exposure

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3765 Investigation of Possible Precancerous Viral Markers in Dental Follicles of Asymptomatic Impacted Teeth

Authors: Serap Keskin Tunç, Cennet Neslihan Eroğlu, Sevinç Şahin, Selda Seçkin

Abstract:

It has been suggested that various viruses may play a role in the pathogenesis of cancerous oral lesions in the literature. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of both possible precancerous viral markers (HPV, HHV8, HSV1, HSV2, and EBV), and p53 and Ki-67 in the dental follicles of asymptomatic impacted teeth. A hundred healthy volunteers, older than 18 years old, included in the study. Dental follicles of extracted impacted teeth were excised and fixated in 10% formaldehyde. Histopathological and immunohistochemical examinations using HPV (containing HPV 8 and HPV 11), p16 (containing HPV 16), HHV8, HSV1, HSV2, EBV, p53 and Ki-67 antibodies were carried out. Also, the immunohistochemical results were correlated with the clinicopathological feature by Chi-square test statistically No dysplasia or neoplasm was observed. 62% of the cases were positive for p16, 32% were positive for EBV, 26% were positive for HSV1, immunohistochemically. All cases were immunonegative for HPV, HSV2, and HHV8. There was statistically significant correlation between overexpression of p53 with both EBV and p16 positivity (p<0.05). Direct correlation between higher expression of Ki-67 between EBV immunopositivity was detected (p<0.05). Thus, these viruses may be suggested to show trophism to the dental follicles acting as a reservoir. In conclusion, all dental follicles of extracted impacted teeth should be examined histopathologically in order to detect and prevent possible viral oncogenesis.

Keywords: dental follicles, Ki67, p53, precancerous markers viral markers

Procedia PDF Downloads 261
3764 Behavior of Iran Stock Exchange and Impacts of US Oil and Financial Markets

Authors: Erfan Memarian, Seyyed Fazayel Alizadeh

Abstract:

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the oil and financial markets of the United States on Iran stock exchange and to develop an ARDL model to predict the short and long-term relationship between these markets. In this regard, all 713 weekly data between 28 July 1999 and 20 March 2013 were analyzed by using Microfit4.0 and Eviews7 econometric softwares. The independent variable of the study is the “Price and Yield Index (TEDPIX)” of Tehran Stock Exchange and the independent variables include S & P 500 Index, the US three-month treasury bill rate and West Texas Intermediate oil spot price index. The results show that the West Texas Intermediate oil spot price and the S&P 500 indices have significant positive relationships with Iran's TEDPIX. Also, there exists a significant negative relationship between Iran's TEDPIX and the US three-month Treasury bill rate.

Keywords: TEDPIX; Tehran Stock Exchange; S&P 500 index; USA three-month Treasury bill rate; West Texas Intermediate oil

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3763 Macro-Somatic Clonal Propagation of Tree-Borne Oil Seed Species (Calophyllum inophyllum Linn. and Pongamia pinnata Mer.)

Authors: Amelyn M. Ambal, Jose Hermis Patricio

Abstract:

A macro-somatic clonal propagation study was undertaken to determine the effects of method of propagation, rooting hormone, and level of rooting hormone concentration of TBOS (Calophyllum inophyllum Mer. and Pongamia pinnata L.). A factorial experiment in SSSPD with three replications was used in the study and analyzed using ANOVA and LSD. Open mist propagation is effective for rooting Calophyllum inophyllum and Pongamia pinnata cuttings as it gave statistically higher number of adventitious roots, longer length of roots, and higher rooting percentage. C. inophyllum cuttings exhibit statistically higher rooting percentage compared to P. pinnata cuttings when subjected to open mist method and treated with 600 ppm of NAA. NAA is more effective than IBA in terms of number and length of roots, and rooting percentage produced. However, levels of hormone concentration were not generally effective on the rooting performance and shoot production of both species.

Keywords: adventitious roots, Calophyllum, close-mist, macro-somatic clonal propagation, Pongamia, open-mist

Procedia PDF Downloads 432
3762 Effect of Reminiscence Therapy on the Sleep Quality of the Elderly Living in Nursing Homes

Authors: Güler Duru Aşiret

Abstract:

Introduction: Poor sleep quality is a common problem among the older people living in nursing homes. Our study aimed at assessing the effect of individual reminiscence therapy on the sleep quality of the elderly living in nursing homes. Methods: The study had 22 people in the intervention group and 24 people in the control group. The intervention group had reminiscence therapy once a week for 12 weeks in the form of individual sessions of 25-30 minutes. In our study, we first determined the dates suitable for the intervention group and researcher and planned the date and time of individual reminiscence therapies, which would take 12 weeks. While preparing this schedule, we considered subjects’ time schedules for their regular visits to health facilities and the arrival of their visitors. At this stage, the researcher informed the participants that their regular attendance in sessions would affect the intervention outcome. One topic was discussed every week. Weekly topics included: introduction in the first week; childhood and family life, school days, starting work and work life (a day at home for housewives), a fun day out of home, marriage (friendship for the singles), plants and animals they loved, babies and children, food and cooking, holidays and travelling, special days and celebrations, assessment and closure, in the following weeks respectively. The control group had no intervention. Study data was collected by using an introductory information form and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). Results: In our study, participants’ average age was 76.02 ± 7.31. 58.7% of them were male and 84.8% were single. All of them had at least one chronic disease. 76.1% did not need help for performing their daily life activities. The length of stay in the institution was 6.32 ± 3.85 years. According to the participants’ descriptive characteristics, there was no difference between groups. While there was no statistically significant difference between the pretest PSQI median scores (p > 0.05) of both groups, PSQI median score had a statistically significant decrease after 12 weeks of reminiscence therapy (p < 0.05). There was no statistically significant change in the median scores of the subcomponents of sleep latency, sleep duration, sleep efficiency, sleep disturbance and use of sleep medication before and after reminiscence therapy. After the 12-weeks reminiscence therapy, there was a statistically significant change in the median scores for the PSQI subcomponents of subjective sleep quality (p<0.05). Conclusion: Our study found that reminiscence therapy increased the sleep quality of the elderly living in nursing homes. Acknowledgment: This study (project no 2017-037) was supported by the Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Aksaray University. We thank the elderly subjects for their kind participation.

Keywords: nursing, older people, reminiscence therapy, sleep

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3761 The Effect of Enamel Surface Preparation on the Self-Etch Bonding of Orthodontic Tubes: An in Vitro Study

Authors: Fernandes A. C. B. C. J., de Jesus V. C., Sepideh N., Vilela OFGG, Somarin K. K., França R., Pinheiro F. H. S. L.

Abstract:

Objective: The purpose of this study was to look at the effect of pre-treatment of enamel with pumice and/or 37% phosphoric acid on the shear bond strength (SBS) of orthodontic tubes bonded to enamel while simultaneously evaluating the efficacy of orthodontic tubes bonded by self-etch primer (SEP). Materials and Methods: 39 of the crown halves were divided into 3 groups at random. Group, I was the control group utilizing both prophy paste and the conventional double etching pre-treatment method. Group II excluded the use of prophy paste prior to double etching. Group III excluded the use of both prophy paste and double etching and only utilized SEP. Bond strength of the orthodontic tubes was measured by SBS. One way ANOVA and Tukey’s HSD test were used to compare SBS values between the three groups. The statistical significance was set to p<0.05. Results: The difference in SBS values of groups I (36.672 ± 9.315 Mpa), II (34.242 ± 9.986 Mpa), and III (39.055 ± 5.565) were not statistically significant (P<0.05). Conclusion: This study suggested that the use of prophy paste or pre-acid etch of the enamel surface did not provide a statistically significant difference in SBS between the three groups.

Keywords: shear bond strength, orthodontic bracket, self-etch primer, pumice, prophy

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3760 Combining a Continuum of Hidden Regimes and a Heteroskedastic Three-Factor Model in Option Pricing

Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

Abstract:

This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

Procedia PDF Downloads 279