Search results for: uncertainty and decision making

Authors: Zhen Wu, David Lupien St-Pierre, Georges Abdul-Nour

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In decision making under strict uncertainty, decision makers have to choose a decision without any information about the states of nature. The classic criteria of Laplace, Wald, Savage, Hurwicz and Starr are introduced and compared in a case study of sewer network planning. Furthermore, results from different criteria are discussed and analyzed. Moreover, this paper discusses the idea that decision making under strict uncertainty (DMUSU) can be viewed as a two-player game and thus be solved by a solution concept in game theory: Nash equilibrium.

Keywords: decision criteria, decision making, sewer network planning, decision making, strict uncertainty

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Authors: H. D. Arora, Anjali Dhiman

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Uncertainty is found everywhere and its understanding is central to decision making. Uncertainty emerges as one has less information than the total information required describing a system and its environment. Uncertainty and information are so closely associated that the information provided by an experiment for example, is equal to the amount of uncertainty removed. It may be pertinent to point out that uncertainty manifests itself in several forms and various kinds of uncertainties may arise from random fluctuations, incomplete information, imprecise perception, vagueness etc. For instance, one encounters uncertainty due to vagueness in communication through natural language. Uncertainty in this sense is represented by fuzziness resulting from imprecision of meaning of a concept expressed by linguistic terms. Fuzzy set concept provides an appropriate mathematical framework for dealing with the vagueness. Both information theory, proposed by Shannon (1948) and fuzzy set theory given by Zadeh (1965) plays an important role in human intelligence and various practical problems such as image segmentation, medical diagnosis etc. Numerous approaches and theories dealing with inaccuracy and uncertainty have been proposed by different researcher. In the present communication, we generalize fuzzy entropy proposed by De Luca and Termini (1972) corresponding to Shannon entropy(1948). Further, some of the basic properties of the proposed measure were examined. We also applied the proposed measure to the real life decision making problem.

Keywords: entropy, fuzzy sets, fuzzy entropy, generalized fuzzy entropy, decision making

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, David Tolin, Lital Ruderman, Ariel Kirshenbaum, J. MacLaren Kelly, Christopher Pittenger, Ifat Levy

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Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) produces profound morbidity. Difficulties with decision making and intolerance of uncertainty are prominent clinical features of OCD. The nature and etiology of these deficits are poorly understood. We used a well-validated choice task, grounded in behavioral economic theory, to investigate differences in valuation and value-based choice during decision making under uncertainty in 20 unmedicated participants with OCD and 20 matched healthy controls. Participants’ choices were used to assess individual decision-making characteristics. Compared to controls, individuals with OCD were less consistent in their choices and less able to identify options that were unambiguously preferable. These differences correlated with symptom severity. OCD participants did not differ from controls in how they valued uncertain options when outcome probabilities were known (risk) but were more likely than controls to avoid uncertain options when these probabilities were imprecisely specified (ambiguity). These results suggest that the underlying neural mechanisms of valuation and value-based choices during decision-making are abnormal in OCD. Individuals with OCD show elevated intolerance of uncertainty, but only when outcome probabilities are themselves uncertain. Future research focused on the neural valuation network, which is implicated in value-based computations, may provide new neurocognitive insights into the pathophysiology of OCD. Deficits in decision-making processes may represent a target for therapeutic intervention.

Keywords: obsessive compulsive disorder, decision-making, uncertainty intolerance, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, valuation

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Authors: I. Khutsishvili, G. Sirbiladze, B. Ghvaberidze

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This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most profitable investments into several of the project using the method developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems. The article provides an example of the investment decision-making that explains the work of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: expert evaluations, investment decision making, OWA operator, possibility uncertainty

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: Rimac Smiljanic Ana, Pepur Sandra, Bulog Ivana

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Financial decision-making in the household is not simple, and it demands that the decision-maker has proper knowledge and skills. Usually, high uncertainty, risk, and stress surround household financial decision-making since it is extremely important and critical for household wealth accumulation and for the well-being of all household members. Generally, skilful people tend to have higher confidence in certain tasks they perform, and they achieve better results. Therefore, in the household context, the possession of certain skills by the ones who make financial decisions for the household is of particular importance. This paper addresses financial literacy as an important skill for household decision-making. Apart from financial literacy, the paper also considers other factors, such as employment, education, and age, as significant for household financial decision-making. The analysis is based on quantitative individual-level survey data. The data collection was conducted during January and February 2021 in Croatia through an online survey. To reach a wide variety of participants, the snowball sampling method was used. The result revealed interesting and somewhat puzzling results. Our results point to the importance of financial literacy skills for household decision-making.

Keywords: skill, financial literacy, decision-making, household financijal decision making

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Authors: Okay Gunes

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Unsatisfactory experiences due to an information shortage regarding the future pay-offs of actual choices, yield satisficing decision-making. This research will examine, for the first time in the literature, the motivation behind suboptimal decisions due to uncertainty by subjecting Adam Smith’s and Jeremy Bentham’s assumptions about the nature of the actions that lead to satisficing behavior, in order to clarify the theoretical background of a “consumption-based satisfactory time” concept. The contribution of this paper with respect to the existing literature is threefold: Firstly, it is showed in this paper that Adam Smith’s uncertainty is related to the problem of the constancy of ideas and not related directly to beliefs. Secondly, possessions, as in Jeremy Bentham’s oeuvre, are assumed to be just as pleasing, as protecting and improving the actual or expected quality of life, so long as they reduce any displeasure due to the undesired outcomes of uncertainty. Finally, each consumption decision incurs its own satisfactory time period, owed to not feeling hungry, being healthy, not having transportation…etc. This reveals that the level of satisfaction is indeed a behavioral phenomenon where its value would depend on the simultaneous satisfaction derived from all activities.

Keywords: decision-making, idea and belief, satisficing, uncertainty

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh, Bhaskar Bhowmick

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Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into during decision-making in product development and related areas. Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirms the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention criterion, ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.

Keywords: uncertainty, market, orientation, competitor, demand

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine Corbly, Ifat Levy

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Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design, the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on both expected value and variance. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across subjects. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. This novel double dissociation indicates that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, ambiguity, conflict, fMRI

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Authors: Mohammad Abdullah-Al-Wadud

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In the current era of automation and artificial intelligence, different systems have been increasingly keeping on depending on decision-making capabilities of machines. Such systems/applications may range from simple classifiers to sophisticated surveillance systems based on traditional sensors and related equipment which are becoming more common in the internet of things (IoT) paradigm. However, the available data for such problems are usually imprecise and incomplete, which leads to uncertainty in decisions made based on traditional probability-based classifiers. This requires a robust fusion framework to combine the available information sources with some degree of certainty. The theory of evidence can provide with such a method for combining evidence from different (may be unreliable) sources/observers. This talk will address the employment of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of evidence in some practical applications.

Keywords: decision making, dempster-shafer theory, evidence fusion, incomplete data, uncertainty

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Authors: Hossein Afzali

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Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. It is well noted that the accuracy of model predictions is strongly influenced by the appropriateness of model structuring. However, there is relatively inadequate methodological guidance surrounding this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. This presentation aims to discuss issues around model structuring within decision making with a focus on (1) the need for a transparent and evidence-based model structuring process to inform the most appropriate set of structural aspects as the base case analysis; (2) the need to characterise structural uncertainty (If there exist alternative plausible structural assumptions (or judgements), there is a need to appropriately characterise the related structural uncertainty). The presentation will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on how the guidelines developed by national funding bodies address the above issues and identify areas for further improvements. First, a review and analysis of the literature and guidelines developed by PBAC and NICE will be provided. Then, it will be discussed how the issues around model structuring (including structural uncertainty) are not handled and justified in a systematic way within the decision-making process, its potential impact on the quality of public funding decisions, and how it should be presented in submissions to national funding bodies. This presentation represents a contribution to the good modelling practice within the decision-making process. Although the presentation focuses on the PBAC and NICE guidelines, the discussion can be applied more widely to many other national funding bodies that use economic evaluation to inform funding decisions but do not transparently address model structuring issues e.g. the Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) in Australia or the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation, good modelling practice, structural uncertainty

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Authors: Markou Vasiliki, Serdaris Panagiotis

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The consumer behavior and decision-making process of consumers is a process that is affected by the factor of uncertainty. The onslaught of the Covid 19 pandemic has changed the consumer decision-making process in many ways. This change can be seen both in the buying process (how and where they shop) but also in the types of goods and services they are looking for. In addition, due to the mainly economic uncertainty that came from this event, but also the effects on both society and the economy in general, new consumer behaviors were created. Traditional forms of shopping are no longer a primary choice, consumers have turned to digital channels such as e-commerce and social media to fulfill needs. The purpose of this particular article is to examine how much the consumer's decision-making process has been affected after the pandemic and if consumer behavior has changed. An online survey was conducted to examine the change in decision making. Essentially, the demographic factors that influence the decision-making process were examined, as well as the social and economic factors. The research is divided into two parts. The first part included a literature review of the research that has been carried out to identify the factors, and the second part where the empirical investigation was carried out using a questionnaire and was done electronically with the help of Google Forms. The questionnaire was divided into several sections. They included questions about consumer behavior, but mainly about how they make decisions today, whether those decisions have changed due to the pandemic, and whether those changes are permanent. Also, for decision-making, goods were divided into essential products, high-tech products, transactions with the state and others. Αbout 500 consumers aged between 18 and 75 participated in the research. The data was processed with both descriptive statistics and econometric models. The results showed that the consumer behavior and decision-making process has changed. Now consumers widely use the internet for shopping, consumer behaviors and consumer patterns have changed. Social and economic factors play an important role. Income, gender and other factors were found to be statistically significant. In addition, it is worth noting that the percentage who made purchases during the pandemic through the internet for the first time was remarkable and related to age. Essentially, the arrival of the pandemic caused uncertainty for individuals, mainly financial, and this affected the decision-making process. In addition, shopping through the internet is now the first choice, especially among young people, and it seems that it is about to become established.

Keywords: consumer behavior, decision making, COVID-19, Greece, behavior change

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Authors: Li-Wei Wu, Chung-Yu Wang

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Recently, interest has been generated in the search for a new reference framework for value creation that is centered on the co-creation process. Co-creation implies cooperative value creation between service firms and customers and requires the building of experiences as well as the resolution of problems through the combined effort of the parties in the relationship. For customers, values are always co-created through their participation in services. Customers can ultimately determine the value of the service in use. This new approach emphasizes that a customer’s participation in the service process is considered indispensable to value co-creation. An important feature of service in the context of exchange is co-production, which implies that a certain amount of participation is needed from customers to co-produce a service and hence co-create value. Co-production no doubt helps customers better understand and take charge of their own roles in the service process. Thus, this proposal is to encourage co-production, thus facilitating value co-creation of that is reflected in both customers and service firms. Four determinants of co-production are identified in this study, namely, commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty. Commitment is an essential dimension that directly results in successful cooperative behaviors. Trust helps establish a relational environment that is fundamental to cross-border cooperation. Asset specificity motivates co-production because this determinant may enhance return on asset investment. Decision-making uncertainty prompts customers to collaborate with service firms in making decisions. In other words, customers adjust their roles and are increasingly engaged in co-production when commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty are enhanced. Although studies have examined the preceding effects, to our best knowledge, none has empirically examined the simultaneous effects of all the curvilinear relationships in a single study. When these determinants are excessive, however, customers will not engage in co-production process. In brief, we suggest that the relationships of commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty with co-production are curvilinear or are inverse U-shaped. These new forms of curvilinear relationships have not been identified in existing literature on co-production; therefore, they complement extant linear approaches. Most importantly, we aim to consider both the bright and the dark sides of the determinants of co-production.

Keywords: co-production, commitment, trust, asset specificity, decision-making uncertainty

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Authors: Benlakhdar Mohamed Larbi, Yagoub Asma

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Purpose: This study aims at highlighting the significance and importance of utilizing marketing information system (MKIS) on decision-making, by clarifying the need for quick and efficient decision-making due to time saving and preventing of duplication of work. Design, methodology, approach: The study shows the roles of each part of MKIS for developing marketing strategy, which present a real challenge to individuals and institutions in an era characterized by uncertainty and clarifying the importance of each part separately, depending on decision type and the nature of the situation. The empirical research method was evaluated by specialized experts, conducted by means of questionnaires. Correlation analysis was employed to test the validity of the procedure. Results: The empirical study findings confirmed positive relationships between the level of utilizing and adopting ‘decision support system and marketing intelligence’ and the success of an organizational decision-making, and provide the organization with a competitive advantage as it allows the organization to solve problems. Originality/value: The study offer better understanding of performance- increasing market share as an organizational decision making based on marketing information system.

Keywords: database, marketing research, marketing intelligence, decision support system, decision-making

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Authors: Ahmet Ali Turk, Muhterem Bayram

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In this study, it is intended to determine that what kind of traps military leaders fall into during the decision making and how they make take a measure against them. In the study, the domestic and foreign literature on the military leadership has been reviewed and military decision-making process of the different countries has been introduced and study has been designed by making interviews as a sample with 50 people who had made military leadership. The issues resulting from the literature review that led to wrong decisions of military leaders and the points obtained as a result of interview have been evaluated by comparing. As a result, it has been emerged that the personnel who have made especially military leadership are in tendency of making the wrong decision due to decision traps such as excessive self-confidence, lack of experience, unplanned movement, hasty decision making and prohibitive conditions and also the need for increased situational awareness about this condition has been emerged.

Keywords: military leadership, decision making, military decision making, military decision making traps

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Authors: P. Bharathiraja

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Computer Aided decision making system is used to enhance diagnosis and prognosis of diseases and also to assist clinicians and junior doctors in clinical decision making. Medical Data used for decision making should be definite and consistent. Data Mining and soft computing techniques are used for cleaning the data and for incorporating human reasoning in decision making systems. Fuzzy rule based inference technique can be used for classification in order to incorporate human reasoning in the decision making process. In this work, missing values are imputed using the mean or mode of the attribute. The data are normalized using min-ma normalization to improve the design and efficiency of the fuzzy inference system. The fuzzy inference system is used to handle the uncertainties that exist in the medical data. Equal-width-partitioning is used to partition the attribute values into appropriate fuzzy intervals. Fuzzy rules are generated using Class Based Associative rule mining algorithm. The system is trained and tested using heart disease data set from the University of California at Irvine (UCI) Machine Learning Repository. The data was split using a hold out approach into training and testing data. From the experimental results it can be inferred that classification using fuzzy inference system performs better than trivial IF-THEN rule based classification approaches. Furthermore it is observed that the use of fuzzy logic and fuzzy inference mechanism handles uncertainty and also resembles human decision making. The system can be used in the absence of a clinical expert to assist junior doctors and clinicians in clinical decision making.

Keywords: decision making, data mining, normalization, fuzzy rule, classification

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Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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Authors: I. Teotónio, C.O. Cruz, C.M. Silva, M. Manso

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Diverse stakeholders show different concerns when choosing green roof systems. Also, green roof solutions vary in their cost and performance. Therefore, decision-makers continually face the difficult task of balancing benefits against green roofs costs. Decision analysis methods, as multicriteria analysis, can be used when the decision‑making process includes different perspectives, multiple objectives, and uncertainty. The present study adopts a multicriteria decision model to evaluate the installation of green roofs in buildings, determining the solution with the best trade-off between costs and benefits in agreement with the preferences of the users/investors. This methodology was applied to a real decision problem, assessing the preferences between different green roof systems in an existing building in Lisbon. This approach supports the decision-making process on green roofs and enables robust and informed decisions on urban planning while optimizing buildings retrofitting.

Keywords: decision making, green roofs, investors preferences, multicriteria analysis, sustainable development

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Authors: I. Arockiarani

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The focus of the paper is to furnish the entropy measure for a neutrosophic set and neutrosophic soft set which is a measure of uncertainty and it permeates discourse and system. Various characterization of entropy measures are derived. Further we exemplify this concept by applying entropy in various real time decision making problems.

Keywords: entropy measure, Hausdorff distance, neutrosophic set, soft set

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Authors: B. Güney, Ç. Teke

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In recent years, rapid and correct decision making is crucial for both people and enterprises. However, uncertainty makes decision-making difficult. Fuzzy logic is used for coping with this situation. Thus, fuzzy linear programming models are developed in order to handle uncertainty in objective function and the constraints. In this study, a problem of a factory in food industry is investigated, required data is obtained and the problem is figured out as a fuzzy linear programming model. The model is solved using Zimmerman approach which is one of the approaches for fuzzy linear programming. As a result, the solution gives the amount of production for each product type in order to gain maximum profit.

Keywords: food industry, fuzzy linear programming, fuzzy logic, linear programming

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Authors: Eva Štěpánková

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The decision-making process is theoretically clearly defined. Generally, it includes the problem identification and analysis, data gathering, goals and criteria setting, alternatives development and optimal alternative choice and its implementation. In practice however, various modifications of the theoretical decision-making process can occur. The managers can consider some of the phases to be too complicated or unfeasible and thus they do not carry them out and conversely some of the steps can be overestimated. The aim of the paper is to reveal and characterize the perception of the individual phases of decision-making process by the managers. The research is concerned with managers in the military environment–commanders. Quantitative survey is focused cross-sectionally in the individual levels of management of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. On the total number of 135 respondents the analysis focuses on which of the decision-making process phases are problematic or not carried out in practice and which are again perceived to be the easiest. Then it is examined the reasons of the findings.

Keywords: decision making, decision making process, decision problems, concrete organization

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Authors: Ivana Bulog

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Decision making is a vital part of the business world and any other field of human endeavor. Which way a business organization will take, and where that way will lead it, depends on broad range of decisions made by managers in the managerial structure. Strategic decisions are of the greatest importance for organizational success. Although much empirical research has been done trying to describe and explain its nature and effectiveness, knowledge about strategic decision making is still incomplete. This paper explores the nature of strategic decision making in particular setting - in Croatian companies. The main focus of this research is on the style that decision makers on strategic management level are following when making decisions of life importance for their companies. Two main decision making style that explain the way decision maker collects and processes available information and performs all the activities in strategic decision making process were empirical tested: rational and intuitive one. Besides analyzing their existence on strategic management level in Croatian companies, their effectiveness is analyzed as well. Results showed that decision makers at strategic management level are following both styles somewhat equally in order to function effectively, and that intuitive style is more effective when considering decisions outcomes.

Keywords: decision making style, decision making effectiveness, strategic decisions, management sciences

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Authors: Agoston Restas

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Introduction: In case of managing disasters decision makers can face many times such a special situation where any pre-sign of the drastically change is missing therefore the improvised decision making can be required. The complexity, ambiguity, uncertainty or the volatility of the situation can require many times the improvisation as decision making. It can be taken at any level of the management (strategic, operational and tactical) but at tactical level the main reason of the improvisation is surely time pressure. It is certainly the biggest problem during the management. Methods: The author used different tools and methods to achieve his goals; one of them was the study of the relevant literature, the other one was his own experience as a firefighting manager. Other results come from two surveys that are referred to; one of them was an essay analysis, the second one was a word association test, specially created for the research. Results and discussion: This article proves that, in certain situations, the multi-criteria, evaluating decision-making processes simply cannot be used or only in a limited manner. However, it can be seen that managers, directors or commanders are many times in situations that simply cannot be ignored when making decisions which should be made in a short time. The functional background of decisions made in a short time, their mechanism, which is different from the conventional, was studied lately and this special decision procedure was given the name recognition-primed decision. In the article, author illustrates the limits of the possibilities of analytical decision-making, presents the general operating mechanism of recognition-primed decision-making, elaborates on its special model relevant to managers at tactical level, as well as explore and systemize the factors that facilitate (catalyze) the processes with an example with fire managers.

Keywords: decision making, disaster managers, recognition primed decision, model for making decisions in emergencies

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Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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Authors: Harleen Kaur, Deepika Jindal Singla

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Buying decision making is a complicated process, in which consumer’s decision is under the impact of others. The buying decision making is directed in a way that they have to act as customers in the society. Media and family are key socialising agents for adolescents’. Moreover, changes in the socio-cultural environment in India necessitate that adolescents’ influence in family’s buying decision-making should be investigated. In comparison to Western society, Indian is quite different, when compared in terms of family composition and structure, behaviour, values and norms which effect adolescents’ buying decision-making.

Keywords: adolescents, buying behavior, Indian urban families, consumer socialization

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Authors: Rhenan D. Estacio

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This research presents the career decision making difficulty and emotional quotient of one hundred fifty (150) college students of City College of Angeles, Academic Year 2016-2017. Independent sample T-test and Pearson r correlation were done to shifter and non-shifter in terms of their career decision making difficulty and emotional quotient. A significant positive correlation revealed (r=.302) on career decision making difficulty and emotional quotient. Also, a significant negative correlation revealed (r=-.329) on career decision making difficulty and a moderating variable which is age. The finding significantly shows that emotional quotient was associated and adds a significant incremental variance with career decision making difficulty. Moreover, age shows a moderating effect on career decision making difficulty by having a significant decline and increment on variables. Furthermore, categorization of career decision making difficulty and emotional quotient of said participants are described in this study. In addition, career guidance interventions were suggested based on the results of this study.

Keywords: career, decision-making, difficulty, emotional, quotient

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Authors: Kirsi Snellman, Johannes Gartner, , Katja Upadaya

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A transition towards a future where the economy serves society so that it evolves within the safe operating space of the planet calls for fundamental changes in the way managers think, feel and act, and make decisions that relate to social and environmental issues. Sustainable decision-making in organizations are often challenging tasks characterized by trade-offs between environmental, social and financial aspects, thus often bringing forth ethical concerns. Although there have been significant developments in incorporating uncertainty into environmental decision-making and measuring constructs and dimensions in ethical behavior in organizations, the majority of sustainable decision-making models are rationalist-based. Moreover, research in psychology indicates that one’s readiness to make a decision depends on the individual’s state of mind, the feasibility of the implied change, and the compatibility of strategies and tactics of implementation. Although very informative, most of this extant research is limited in the sense that it often directs attention towards the rational instead of the emotional. Hence, little is known about the role of emotions in sustainable decision making, especially in situations where decision-makers evaluate a variety of options and use their feelings as a source of information in tackling the uncertainty. To fill this lacuna, and to embrace the uncertainty and perceived risk involved in decisions that touch upon social and environmental aspects, it is important to add emotion to the evaluation when aiming to reach the one right and good ethical decision outcome. This analysis builds on recent findings in moral psychology that associate feelings and intuitions with ethical decisions and suggests that emotions can sensitize the manager to evaluate the rightness or wrongness of alternatives if ethical concerns are present in sustainable decision making. Capturing such sensitive evaluation as triggered by intuitions, we suggest that rational justification can be complemented by using emotions as a tool to tune in to what feels right in making sustainable decisions. This analysis integrates ethical decision-making theories with recent advancements in emotion theories. It determines the conditions under which emotions play a role in sustainability decisions by contributing to a personal equilibrium in which intuition and rationality are both activated and in accord. It complements the rationalist ethics view according to which nothing fogs the mind in decision making so thoroughly as emotion, and the concept of cheater’s high that links unethical behavior with positive affect. This analysis contributes to theory with a novel theoretical model that specifies when and why managers, who are more emotional, are, in fact, more likely to make ethical decisions than those managers who are more rational. It also proposes practical advice on how emotions can convert the manager’s preferences into choices that benefit both common good and one’s own good throughout the transition towards a more sustainable future.

Keywords: emotion, ethical decision making, intuition, sustainability

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Authors: Mariam Shah

Abstract:

This paper will examine the potential influence and role of unconscious cognition on judicial decision making. The theoretical underpinnings of this paper rest on phenomenological theory grounded predominantly in Schutzian phenomenology. Aspects of Husserlian and Gadamerian phenomenology will be included within the phenomenological framework put forward in this paper, in an attempt to provide a more complete and thorough account of how unconscious cognition can influence judicial decision making. This paper has far reaching implications, as the framework provides a foundation for unconscious cognitive factors which can work to influence decision making more generally.

Keywords: decision making, Gadamer, Gadamerian, Husserl, Husserlian, judicial decision making, phenomenology, Schutz, Schutzian

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Authors: Malte Brettel, David Bendig, Michael Keller, Marius Rosenberg

Abstract:

What are the core competences necessary in order to sustain manufacturing in high-wage countries? Aspiring countries all over the world gain market share in manufacturing and rapidly close the productivity and quality gap that has until now protected some parts of the industry in Europe and the United States from dislocation. However, causal production planning and manufacturing, the basis for productivity and quality, is challenged by the ever-greater need for flexibility and customized products in an uncertain business environment. This article uses a case-study-based approach to assess how production managers in high-wage countries can apply decision-making principals from successful entrepreneurs. 'Effectuation' instead of causal decision making can be applied to handle uncertainty of mass customization, to seek the right partners in alliances and to advance towards virtual production. The findings help managers to use their resources more efficiently and contribute to bridge the gap between production research and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: case studies, decision-making behavior, effectuation, production planning

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Authors: Norfiza Ibrahim, Norshuhada Shiratuddin, Siti Mahfuzah Sarif

Abstract:

Decision-making system is used to facilitate people in making the right choice for their important daily activities. For the youth, proper guidance in making important decisions is needed. Their skills in decision-making aid decisions will indirectly affect their future. For that reason, this study focuses on the intelligent aspects in the development of intelligent decision support application. The aid apparently integrates Personality Traits (PT) and Multiple Intelligence (MI) data in development of a computerized personal decision aid for youth named as Youth Personal Decision Aid (Youth PDA). This study is concerned with the aid’s helpfulness based on the hybrid intelligent process. There are four main items involved which are reliability, decision making effort, confidence, as well as decision process awareness. Survey method was applied to the actual user of this system, namely the school and the Institute of Higher Education (IPT)’s students. An establish instrument was used to evaluate the study. The results of the analysis and findings in the assessment indicates a high mean value of the four dimensions in helping Youth PDA to be accepted as a useful tool for the youth in decision-making.

Keywords: decision support, multiple intelligent, personality traits, youth personal decision aid

Procedia PDF Downloads 632