Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 11

Search results for: B. Güney

11 Fuzzy Linear Programming Approach for Determining the Production Amounts in Food Industry

Authors: B. Güney, Ç. Teke


In recent years, rapid and correct decision making is crucial for both people and enterprises. However, uncertainty makes decision-making difficult. Fuzzy logic is used for coping with this situation. Thus, fuzzy linear programming models are developed in order to handle uncertainty in objective function and the constraints. In this study, a problem of a factory in food industry is investigated, required data is obtained and the problem is figured out as a fuzzy linear programming model. The model is solved using Zimmerman approach which is one of the approaches for fuzzy linear programming. As a result, the solution gives the amount of production for each product type in order to gain maximum profit.

Keywords: food industry, fuzzy linear programming, fuzzy logic, linear programming

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10 Dividend Policy, Overconfidence and Moral Hazard

Authors: Richard Fairchild, Abdullah Al-Ghazali, Yilmaz Guney


This study analyses the relationship between managerial overconfidence, dividends, and firm value by developing theoretical models that examine the condition under which managerial overconfident, dividends, and firm value may be positive or negative. Furthermore, the models incorporate moral hazard, in terms of managerial effort shirking, and the potential for the manager to choose negative NPV projects, due to private benefits. Our models demonstrate that overconfidence can lead to higher dividends (when the manager is overconfident about his current ability) or lower dividends (when the manager is overconfident about his future ability). The models also demonstrate that higher overconfidence may result in an increase or a decrease in firm value. Numerical examples are illustrated for both models which interestingly support the models’ propositions.

Keywords: behavioural corporate finance, dividend policy, overconfidence, moral hazard

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9 Generalized Additive Model Approach for the Chilean Hake Population in a Bio-Economic Context

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme


The traditional bio-economic method for fisheries modeling uses some estimate of the growth parameters and the system carrying capacity from a biological model for the population dynamics (usually a logistic population growth model) which is then analyzed as a traditional production function. The stock dynamic is transformed into a revenue function and then compared with the extraction costs to estimate the maximum economic yield. In this paper, the logistic population growth model for the population is combined with a forecast of the abundance and location of the stock by using a generalized additive model approach. The paper focuses on the Chilean hake population. This method allows for the incorporation of climatic variables and the interaction with other marine species, which in turn will increase the reliability of the estimates and generate better extraction paths for different conservation objectives, such as the maximum biological yield or the maximum economic yield.

Keywords: bio-economic, fisheries, GAM, production

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8 Assessment of Material Type, Diameter, Orientation and Closeness of Fibers in Vulcanized Reinforced Rubbers

Authors: Ali Osman Güney, Bahattin Kanber


In this work, the effect of material type, diameter, orientation and closeness of fibers on the general performance of reinforced vulcanized rubbers are investigated using finite element method with experimental verification. Various fiber materials such as hemp, nylon, polyester are used for different fiber diameters, orientations and closeness. 3D finite element models are developed by considering bonded contact elements between fiber and rubber sheet interfaces. The fibers are assumed as linear elastic, while vulcanized rubber is considered as hyper-elastic. After an experimental verification of finite element results, the developed models are analyzed under prescribed displacement that causes tension. The normal stresses in fibers and shear stresses between fibers and rubber sheet are investigated in all models. Large deformation of reinforced rubber sheet also represented with various fiber conditions under incremental loading. A general assessment is achieved about best fiber properties of reinforced rubber sheets for tension-load conditions.

Keywords: reinforced vulcanized rubbers, fiber properties, out of plane loading, finite element method

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7 Effects of Local Decongestive Agents at Trachea and Lungs

Authors: Sertac Arslan, Guven Guney, Ayse Ipek Akyuz Unsal, Emre Demir, Buket Demirci


Purpose: There is little histologic data concerning effects of nasal decongestants on the respiratory tract. We aimed to put forth the effects of nasal decongestants on the trachea and lower airways of rats. Materials and Methods: Four to six months old 60 male rats were randomly categorized into 6 groups. Experimental drugs were applied to the same nostril of rats twice daily for 8 weeks (Xylometazolin, Benzalkolyum, EDTA, Sorbitol and combined drug solutions). We applied normal saline solution (NaCl %0.9) for the control group. In the end, trachea and both lungs were dissected and kept in formaldehyde for histopathologic evaluation. Results: Inflammation and bronchial edema were most common findings. While all rats in sorbitol group had increased numbers of type 2 pneumocytes; 80% of BAC group had increased numbers of type 2 pneumocytes. Spillover of tracheal epithelium was seen mostly in sorbitol, EDTA and combined drug groups (60%, 87.5%, 50% respectively). Bronchial smooth muscle hypertrophy was seen mostly in BAC and EDTA group (70%, 62.5% respectively). The number of goblet cells showed the significant difference between control-combined drug (p=0.025) and control-BAC (p=0.001) groups. Conclusions: Nasal decongestants can cause permanent changes at lower respiratory tract in addition to changes in upper respiratory tract.

Keywords: decongestive agents, xylometazoline, lung, trachea

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6 Managerial Overconfidence, Payout Policy, and Corporate Governance: Evidence from UK Companies

Authors: Abdullah AlGhazali, Richard Fairchild, Yilmaz Guney


We examine the effect of managerial overconfidence on UK firms’ payout policy for the period 2000 to 2012. The analysis incorporates, in addition to common firm-specific factors, a wide range of corporate governance factors and managerial characteristics that have been documented to affect the relationship between overconfidence and payout policy. Our results are robust to several estimation considerations. The findings show that the influence of overconfident CEOs on the amount of, and the propensity to pay, dividends is significant within the UK context. Specifically, we detect that there is a reduction in dividend payments in firms managed by overconfident managers compared to their non-overconfident counterparts. Moreover, we affirm that cash flows, firm size and profitability are positively correlated, while leverage, firm growth and investment are negatively correlated with the amount of and propensity to pay dividends. Interestingly, we demonstrate that firms with the potential for undervaluation reduce dividend payments. Some of the corporate governance factors are shown to motivate firms to pay more dividends while these factors seem to have no influence on the propensity to pay dividends. The results also show that in general higher overconfidence leads to more share repurchases but the lower total payout. Overall, managerial overconfidence should be considered as an important factor influencing payout policy in addition to other known factors.

Keywords: dividends, repurchases, UK firms, overconfidence, corporate governance, undervaluation

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5 The Effect of Fetal Movement Counting on Maternal Antenatal Attachment

Authors: Esra Güney, Tuba Uçar


Aim: This study has been conducted for the purpose of determining the effects of fetal movement counting on antenatal maternal attachment. Material and Method: This research was conducted on the basis of the real test model with the pre-test /post-test control groups. The study population consists of pregnant women registered in the six different Family Health Centers located in the central Malatya districts of Yeşilyurt and Battalgazi. When power analysis is done, the sample size was calculated for each group of at least 55 pregnant women (55 tests, 55 controls). The data were collected by using Personal Information Form and MAAS (Maternal Antenatal Attachment Scale) between July 2015-June 2016. Fetal movement counting training was given to pregnant women by researchers in the experimental group after the pre-test data collection. No intervention was applied to the control group. Post-test data for both groups were collected after four weeks. Data were evaluated with percentage, chi-square arithmetic average, chi-square test and as for the dependent and independent group’s t test. Result: In the MAAS, the pre-test average of total scores in the experimental group is 70.78±6.78, control group is also 71.58±7.54 and so there was no significant difference in mean scores between the two groups (p>0.05). MAAS post-test average of total scores in the experimental group is 78.41±6.65, control group is also is 72.25±7.16 and so the mean scores between groups were found to have statistically significant difference (p<0.05). Conclusion: It was determined that fetal movement counting increases the maternal antenatal attachments.

Keywords: antenatal maternal attachment, fetal movement counting, pregnancy, midwifery

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4 Narrating Atatürk Cultural Center as a Place of Memory and a Space of Politics

Authors: Birge Yildirim Okta


This paper aims to narrate the story of Atatürk Cultural Center in Taksim Square, which was demolished in 2018 and discuss its architectonic as a social place of memory and its existence and demolishment as the space of politics. The paper uses narrative discourse analysis to research Atatürk Cultural Center (AKM) as a place of memory and space of politics from the establishment of the Turkish Republic (1923) until today. After the establishment of the Turkish Republic, one of the most important implementations in Taksim Square, reflecting the internationalist style, was the construction of the Opera Building in Prost Plan. The first design of the opera building belonged to Aguste Perret, which could not be implemented due to economic hardship during World War II. Later the project was designed by architects Feridun Kip and Rüknettin Güney in 1946 but could not be completed due to the 1960 military coup. Later the project was shifted to another architect Hayati Tabanlıoglu, with a change in its function as a cultural center. Eventually, the construction of the building was completed in 1969 in a completely different design. AKM became a symbol of republican modernism not only with its modern architectural style but also with it is function as the first opera building of the Republic, reflecting the western, modern cultural heritage by professional groups, artists, and the intelligentsia. In 2005, Istanbul’s council for the protection of cultural heritage decided to list AKM as a grade 1 cultural heritage, ending a period of controversy which saw calls for the demolition of the center as it was claimed, it ended its useful lifespan. In 2008 the building was announced to be closed for repairs and restoration. Over the following years, the building was demolished piece by piece silently while the Taksim mosque has been built just in front of Atatürk Cultural Center. Belonging to the early republican period AKM was a representation of the cultural production of modern society for the emergence and westward looking, secular public space in Turkey. Its erasure from the Taksim scene under the rule of the conservative government, Justice, and Development Party, and the construction of the Taksim mosque in front of AKM’s parcel is also representational. The question of governing the city through space has always been an important aspect for governments, those holding political power since cities are the chaotic environments that are seen as a threat for the governments, carrying the tensions of the proletariat or the contradictory groups. The story of AKM as a dispositive or a regulatory apparatus demonstrates how space itself is becoming a political medium, to transform the socio-political condition. The paper narrates the existence and demolishment of the Atatürk Cultural Center by discussing the constructed and demolished building as a place of memory and space of politics.

Keywords: space of politics, place of memory, Atatürk Cultural Center, Taksim square, collective memory

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3 As a Secure Bridge Country about Oil and Gas Sources Transfer after Arab Spring: Turkey

Authors: Fatih Ercin Guney, Hami Karagol


Day by day, humanity's energy needs increase, to facilitate access to energy sources by energy importing countries is of great importance in terms of issues both in terms of economic security and political security. The geographical location of the oil exporting countries in the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar) today, it is observed that evaluated by emerging Arab Spring(from Tunisia to Egypt) and freedom battles(in Syria) with security issues arise sourced from terrorist activities(ISIS). Progresses related with limited natural resources, energy and it's transportation issues which worries the developing countries, the energy in the region is considered to how to transfer safely. North Region of the Black Sea , the beginning of the conflict in the regional nature formed between Russia and Ukraine (2010), followed by the relevant regions of the power transmission line (From Russia to Europe) the discovery is considered to be the east's hand began to strengthen in terms of both the economical and political sides. With the growing need for safe access to the west of the new energy transmission lines are followed by Turkey, re-interest is considered to be shifted to the Mediterranean and the Middle East by West. Also, Russia, Iran and China (three axis of east) are generally performing as carry out parallel policies about energy , economical side and security in both United Nations Security Council (Two of Five Permanent Members are Russia and China) and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In addition, Eastern Mediterranean Region Tension are rapidly increasing about research new oil and natural gas sources by Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, Lebanon. This paper provides, new energy corridor(s) are needed to transfer sources (Oil&Natural Gas) by Europe from East to West. So The West needs either safe bridge country to transfer natural sources to Europe in region or is needed to discovery new natural sources in extraterritorial waters of Eastern Mediterranean Region. But in two opportunities are evaluated with secure transfer corridors form region to Europe in safely. Even if the natural sources can be discovered, they are considered to transfer in safe manner. This paper involved, Turkey’s importance as a leader country in region over both of political and safe energy transfer sides as bridge country between south and north of Turkey why natural sources shall be transferred over Turkey, Even if diplomatic issues-For Example; Cyprus membership in European Union, Turkey membership candidate duration, Israel-Cyprus- Egypt-Lebanon researches about new natural sources in Mediterranean - occurred. But politic balance in Middle-East is changing quickly because of lack of democratic governments in region. So it is evaluated that the alliance of natural sources researches may not be long-time relations due to share sources after discoveries. After evaluating over causes and reasons, aim to reach finding foresight about future of region for energy transfer periods in secure manner.

Keywords: Middle East, natural gas, oil, Turkey

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2 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme


Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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1 Supplier Carbon Footprint Methodology Development for Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers

Authors: Nur A. Özdemir, Sude Erkin, Hatice K. Güney, Cemre S. Atılgan, Enes Huylu, Hüseyin Y. Altıntaş, Aysemin Top, Özak Durmuş


Carbon emissions produced during a product’s life cycle, from extraction of raw materials up to waste disposal and market consumption activities are the major contributors to global warming. In the light of the science-based targets (SBT) leading the way to a zero-carbon economy for sustainable growth of the companies, carbon footprint reporting of the purchased goods has become critical for identifying hotspots and best practices for emission reduction opportunities. In line with Ford Otosan's corporate sustainability strategy, research was conducted to evaluate the carbon footprint of purchased products in accordance with Scope 3 of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG). The purpose of this paper is to develop a systematic and transparent methodology to calculate carbon footprint of the products produced by automotive OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) within the context of automobile supply chain management. To begin with, primary material data were collected through IMDS (International Material Database System) corresponds to company’s three distinct types of vehicles including Light Commercial Vehicle (Courier), Medium Commercial Vehicle (Transit and Transit Custom), Heavy Commercial Vehicle (F-MAX). Obtained material data was classified as metals, plastics, liquids, electronics, and others to get insights about the overall material distribution of produced vehicles and matched to the SimaPro Ecoinvent 3 database which is one of the most extent versions for modelling material data related to the product life cycle. Product life cycle analysis was calculated within the framework of ISO 14040 – 14044 standards by addressing the requirements and procedures. A comprehensive literature review and cooperation with suppliers were undertaken to identify the production methods of parts used in vehicles and to find out the amount of scrap generated during part production. Cumulative weight and material information with related production process belonging the components were listed by multiplying with current sales figures. The results of the study show a key modelling on carbon footprint of products and processes based on a scientific approach to drive sustainable growth by setting straightforward, science-based emission reduction targets. Hence, this study targets to identify the hotspots and correspondingly provide broad ideas about our understanding of how to integrate carbon footprint estimates into our company's supply chain management by defining convenient actions in line with climate science. According to emission values arising from the production phase including raw material extraction and material processing for Ford OTOSAN vehicles subjected in this study, GHG emissions from the production of metals used for HCV, MCV and LCV account for more than half of the carbon footprint of the vehicle's production. Correspondingly, aluminum and steel have the largest share among all material types and achieving carbon neutrality in the steel and aluminum industry is of great significance to the world, which will also present an immense impact on the automobile industry. Strategic product sustainability plan which includes the use of secondary materials, conversion to green energy and low-energy process design is required to reduce emissions of steel, aluminum, and plastics due to the projected increase in total volume by 2030.

Keywords: automotive, carbon footprint, IMDS, scope 3, SimaPro, sustainability

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