Search results for: infant mortality rate

Authors: G. I. Onwuka, A. Danbaba, S. U. Gulumbe

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This study investigated of Infant Mortality Rate as observed at a general hospital in Kaduna-South, Kaduna State, North West Nigeria. The causes of infant Mortality were examined. The data used for this analysis were collected at the statistics unit of the Hospital. The analysis was carried out on the data using Multiple Linear regression Technique and this showed that there is linear relationship between the dependent variable (death) and the independent variables (malaria, measles, anaemia, and coronary heart disease). The resultant model also revealed that a unit increment in each of these diseases would result to a unit increment in death recorded, 98.7% of the total variation in mortality is explained by the given model. The highest number of mortality was recorded in July, 2005 and the lowest mortality recorded in October, 2009.Recommendations were however made based on the results of the study.

Keywords: infant mortality rate, multiple linear regression, diseases, serial correlation

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Authors: Alcino Panguana

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All Portuguese-speaking African countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region that has high infant mortality rates, being responsible for 49.6% of deaths in Portuguese-speaking African countries, Angola has levels of infant mortality among children, where 2017, 156 children who died before reaching 1 year of life in 1000 live births. Although there is an increase in studies that document trends and specific causes of infant mortality in each country, historical-comparative studies of infant mortality among these countries remain rare. Understanding the trend of this indicator is important for policymakers and planners in order to improve access to successful child survival operations. Lusophone Africa continues with high infant mortality rates in the order of 64 deaths per thousand births. Assuming heterogeneities that can characterize these countries, raise an analysis investigated indicator at the country level to understand the pattern and historical trend of infant mortality within Lusophone Africa from the year 2021. The result is to understand the levels and evolution of infant mortality in Portuguese-speaking African countries.

Keywords: child mortality, levels, trends, lusophone African countries

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Authors: Narendra Kumar

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This study uses data from the ‘National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) 2005-06’ to investigate the predictors of infant and child mortality among low economic households in East and Northeast region. The cross tabulation, life table survival estimates and Cox proportional hazard model techniques have been used to estimate the predictors of infant and child mortality. The life table survival estimates for infant and child mortality shows that infant mortality in female child is lower in comparison to male child but with child mortality, the rates are higher for female in comparison to male child and the Cox proportional hazard model also give highly significant in female in comparison to male child. The infant and child mortality rates among poor households highest in the Central region followed by North and Northeast region and the lowest in South region in comparison to all regions of India. Education of respondent has been found a significant characteristics in both analyzes, further birth interval, respondent occupation, caste/tribe and place of delivery has substantial impact on infant and child mortality among low economic households in East and Northeast region. Finally these findings specified that an increase in parents’ education, improve health care services and improve socioeconomic conditions of low economic households which should in turn raise infant and child survival and should decrease child mortality among low economic households in India.

Keywords: infant, child, mortality, socio-economic, India

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Authors: Luh Eka Suryani, Purhadi

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Poisson regression is a non-linear regression model with response variable in the form of count data that follows Poisson distribution. Modeling for a pair of count data that show high correlation can be analyzed by Poisson Bivariate Regression. Data, the number of infant mortality and maternal mortality, are count data that can be analyzed by Poisson Bivariate Regression. The Poisson regression assumption is an equidispersion where the mean and variance values are equal. However, the actual count data has a variance value which can be greater or less than the mean value (overdispersion and underdispersion). Violations of this assumption can be overcome by applying Generalized Poisson Regression. Characteristics of each regency can affect the number of cases occurred. This issue can be overcome by spatial analysis called geographically weighted regression. This study analyzes the number of infant mortality and maternal mortality based on conditions in East Java in 2016 using Geographically Weighted Bivariate Generalized Poisson Regression (GWBGPR) method. Modeling is done with adaptive bisquare Kernel weighting which produces 3 regency groups based on infant mortality rate and 5 regency groups based on maternal mortality rate. Variables that significantly influence the number of infant and maternal mortality are the percentages of pregnant women visit health workers at least 4 times during pregnancy, pregnant women get Fe3 tablets, obstetric complication handled, clean household and healthy behavior, and married women with the first marriage age under 18 years.

Keywords: adaptive bisquare kernel, GWBGPR, infant mortality, maternal mortality, overdispersion

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Authors: Sheraz Ahmad Choudhary

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Health plays a vital role in the growth. The study examined the effect of health indicator on the growth of Pakistan. ARDL model is used to check the growth rate which is affected by the health by using the time series date of Pakistan from 1990 to 2017. Health indicator, fertility rate, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and infant mortality rate are variables Where the unit root is applied to check the stationarity of the model. consequences find a significant relationship between GDP, foreign direct investment, fertility rate, and life expectancy in the short run, whereas mortality rate effected negatively to economic growth but have significant values. In the long run, foreign direct investment (FDI) and fertility rate(FR) have significantly influenced the GDP. The results show thateconomic growth is positively stimulated by most of the health indicators. The study accomplishes that nations can achieve a high level of economic growth by increasing wellbeing human capital.

Keywords: economic growth, health expenditures, fertility rate, human capital, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and infant mortality rate

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Authors: K. A. Adeleke

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Often in epidemiological research, introducing stratified Cox model can account for the existence of interactions of some inherent factors with some major/noticeable factors. This research work aimed at modelling correlated variables in infant mortality with the existence of some inherent factors affecting the infant survival function. An alternative semiparametric Stratified Cox model is proposed with a view to take care of multilevel factors that have interactions with others. This, however, was used as a tool to model infant mortality data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) with some multilevel factors (Tetanus, Polio, and Breastfeeding) having correlation with main factors (Sex, Size, and Mode of Delivery). Asymptotic properties of the estimators are also studied via simulation. The tested model via data showed good fit and performed differently depending on the levels of the interaction of the strata variable Z*. An evidence that the baseline hazard functions and regression coefficients are not the same from stratum to stratum provides a gain in information as against the usage of Cox model. Simulation result showed that the present method produced better estimates in terms of bias, lower standard errors, and or mean square errors.

Keywords: stratified Cox, semiparametric model, infant mortality, multilevel factors, cofounding variables

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Authors: Jevonte Abioye, Dylan Savary

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The aim of this research is to present a disaggregated geostatistical analysis of the subnational provincial trends of child mortality variation in Zimbabwe from a child health policy perspective. Soon after gaining independence in 1980, the government embarked on efforts towards promoting equitable health care, namely through the provision of primary health care. Government intervention programmes brought hope and promise, but achieving equity in primary health care coverage was hindered by previous existing disparities in maternal health care disproportionately concentrated in urban settings to the detriment of rural communities. The article highlights policies and programs adopted by the government during the millennium development goals period between 1990-2015 as a response to the inequities that characterised the country’s maternal health care. A longitudinal comparative method for a spatial variation on child mortality rates across provinces is developed based on geostatistical analysis. Cross-sectional and time-series data was extracted from the World Health Organisation (WHO) global health observatory data repository, demographic health survey reports, and previous academic and technical publications. Results suggest that although health care policy was uniform across provinces, not all provinces received the same antenatal and perinatal services. Accordingly, provincial rates of child mortality growth between 1994 and 2015 varied significantly. Evidence on the trends of child mortality rates and maternal health policies in Zimbabwe can be valuable for public child health policy planning and public service delivery design both in Zimbabwe and across developing countries pursuing the sustainable development agenda.

Keywords: antenatal care, perinatal care, infant mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, millennium development goals, sustainable development agenda

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Authors: Kathryn Rooney, Kaitlyn Eddy, Evan Landers, Weihui Li

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The international mortality rate for neonates and infants has been declining at a disproportionally low rate when compared to the overall decline in child mortality in recent decades. A significant portion of infant deaths could be prevented with the implementation of low-cost and easy to use physiological monitoring devices, by enabling early identification of symptoms before they progress into life-threatening illnesses. The oral diagnostic device discussed in this paper serves to continuously monitor the key vital signs of body temperature, respiratory rate, heart rate, and oxygen saturation. The device mimics an infant pacifier, designed to be easily tolerated by infants as well as orthodontically inert. The fundamental measurements are gathered via thermistors and a pulse oximeter, each encapsulated in medical-grade silicone and wired internally to a microcontroller chip. The chip then translates the raw measurements into physiological values via an internal algorithm, before outputting the data to a liquid crystal display screen and an Android application. Additionally, a biological sample collection chamber is incorporated into the internal portion of the device. The movement within the oral chamber created by sucking on the pacifier-like device pushes saliva through a small check valve in the distal end, where it is accumulated and stored. The collection chamber can be easily removed, making the sample readily available to be tested for various diseases and analytes. With the vital sign monitoring and sample collection offered by this device, abnormal fluctuations in physiological parameters can be identified and appropriate medical care can be sought. This device enables preventative diagnosis for infants who may otherwise have gone undiagnosed, due to the inaccessibility of healthcare that plagues vast numbers of underprivileged populations.

Keywords: neonate mortality, infant mortality, low-cost diagnostics, vital signs, saliva testing, preventative care

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Authors: Emmanuel Olamijuwon

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Despite laws against child marriage - a violation against child rights, the practice remains widespread in sub-Saharan Africa and globally partly because of persistent poverty, gender inequality, protection and the need to reinforce family ties. Using pooled data from the recent demographic and health surveys of 20-sub-Saharan African countries with a regional representative sample of 36,943 girls under 18 years, this study explores the prevalence, pattern and infant mortality implications of this marriage type while also examining its regional variations. Indications from the study are that child marriage is still very high in the region with variations above one-tenth in West, Central and Southern Africa regions except in the East African region where only about 7% of children under 18 were already married. Preliminary findings also suggest that about one-in-ten infant deaths were to child brides many of whom were residing in poor households, rural residence, unemployed and have less than secondary education. Based on these findings, it is, therefore, important that government of African countries addresses critical issues through increased policies towards increasing enrollment of girl children in schools as many of these girls are not likely to have any economic benefit to the region if the observed pattern continues.

Keywords: child marriage, infant mortality, Africa, child brides

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Authors: Nicole Banton

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The maternal and infant mortality rate of Blacks is three times that of Whites in the US. Research indicates that breastfeeding lowers both. In this paper, the researcher examines how the ideas that Black/African American mothers had about breastfeeding before, during, and after pregnancy (postpartum) affected whether or not they initiated breastfeeding. The researcher used snowball sampling to recruit thirty African-American mothers from the Orlando area. At the time of her interview, each mother had at least one child who was at least three years old. Through in-depth face-to-face interviews, the researcher investigated how mothers’ healthcare providers affected their decision-making about infant feeding, as well as how the type of birth that she had (e.g., preterm, vaginal, c-section, full term) affected her actual versus idealized infant feeding practice. Through our discussions, we explored how pre-pregnancy perceptions, birth and postpartum experiences, social support, and the discourses surrounding motherhood within an African-American context affected the perceptions and experiences that the mothers in the study had with their infant feeding practice(s). Findings suggest that the pregnancy and birth experiences of the mothers in the study influenced whether or not they breastfed exclusively, combined breastfeeding and infant formula use, or used infant formula exclusively. Specifically, the interplay of invocation of agency (the ability to control their bodies before, during, and after birth), birth outcomes, and the interaction that the mothers in this study had with resources, human and material, had the highest impact on the initiation, duration, and attitude toward breastfeeding.

Keywords: African American mothers, maternal health, breastfeeding, birth, midwives, obstetricians, hospital birth, breast pumps, formula use, infant feeding, lactation consultant, postpartum, vaginal birth, c-section, familial support, social support, work, pregnancy

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Authors: Aytakin Huseynli

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The paper reports findings of the study which examined under-five mortality rate among resource-rich countries. Typically when countries obtain wealth citizens gain increased wellbeing. Societies with new wealth create equal opportunities for everyone including vulnerable groups. But scholars claim that this is not the case for developing resource-rich countries and natural resources become the curse for them rather than the blessing. Spillovers from natural resource curse affect the social wellbeing of vulnerable people negatively. They get excluded from the mainstream society, and their situation becomes tangible. In order to test this hypothesis, the study compared under-5 mortality rate among resource-rich countries by using independent sample one-way ANOVA. The data on under-five mortality rate came from the World Bank. The natural resources for this study are oil, gas and minerals. The list of 67 resource-rich countries was taken from Natural Resource Governance Institute. The sample size was categorized and 4 groups were created such as low, low-middle, upper middle and high-income countries based on income classification of the World Bank. Results revealed that there was a significant difference in the scores for low, middle, upper-middle and high-income countries in under-five mortality rate (F(3(29.01)=33.70, p=.000). To find out the difference among income groups, the Games-Howell test was performed and it was found that infant mortality was an issue for low, middle and upper middle countries but not for high-income countries. Results of this study are in agreement with previous research on resource curse and negative effects of resource-based development. Policy implications of the study for social workers, policy makers, academicians and social development specialists are to raise and discuss issues of marginalization and exclusion of vulnerable groups in developing resource-rich countries and suggest interventions for avoiding them.

Keywords: children, natural resource, extractive industries, resource-based development, vulnerable groups

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Authors: Maria L. G. Lourenço, Keylla H. N. P. Pereira, Viviane Y. Hibaru, Fabiana F. Souza, João C. P. Ferreira, Simone B. Chiacchio, Luiz H. A. Machado

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The neonatal mortality rates in dogs are considered high, varying between 5.7 and 21.2% around the world, and the causes of the deaths are often unknown. Data regarding canine neonatal mortality are scarce in Brazil. This study aims at describing the neonatal mortality rates in dogs, as well as the main causes of death. The study included 152 litters and 669 neonates admitted to the São Paulo State University (UNESP) Veterinary Hospital, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil between January 2018 and September 2019. The overall mortality rate was 16.7% (112/669), with 40% (61/152) of the litters presenting at least one case of stillbirth or neonatal mortality. The rate of stillbirths was 7.7% (51/669), while the neonatal mortality rate was 9% (61/669). The early mortality rate (0 to 2 days) was 13.7% (92/669), accounting for 82.1% (92/112) of all deaths. The late mortality rate (3 to 30 days) was 2.7% (18/669), accounting for 16% (18/112) of all deaths. Infection was the causa mortis in 51.8% (58/112) of the newborns, of which 30.3% (34/112) were caused by bacterial sepsis, and 21.4% (24/112) were caused by other bacterial, viral or parasite infections. Other causes of death included congenital malformations (15.2%, 17/112), of which 5.3% (6/112) happened through euthanasia due to malformations incompatible with life; asphyxia/hypoxia by dystocia (9.8%, 11/112); wasting syndrome in debilitated newborns (6.2%, 7/112); aspiration pneumonia (3.6%, 4/112); agalactia (2.7%, 3/112); trauma (1.8%, 2/112); administration of contraceptives to the mother (1.8%, 2/112) and unknown causes (7.1%, 8/112). The neonatal mortality rate was considered high, but they may be even higher in locations without adequate care for the mothers and neonates. Therefore, prenatal examinations and early neonatal care are of utmost importance for the survival of these patients.

Keywords: neonate dogs, puppies, mortality rate, neonatal death

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Nyimas Annissa Mutiara Andini

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Every year, children develop hydrocephalus during the first year of life. If it is not treated, hydrocephalus can lead to brain damage, a loss in mental and physical abilities, and even death. To be treated, first, we have to do a proper diagnosis using some examinations especially to detect hydrocephalus earlier. One of the examination that could be done is using a head circumference measurement. Increased head circumference is a first and main sign of hydrocephalus, especially in infant (0-1 year age). Head circumference is a measurement of a child's head largest area. In this measurement, we want to get the distance from above the eyebrows and ears and around the back of the head using a measurement tape. If the head circumference of an infant is larger than normal, this infant might potentially suffer hydrocephalus. If early diagnosis and timely treatment of hydrocephalus could be done most children can recover successfully. There are some problems with early detection of hydrocephalus using regular tape for head circumference measurement. One of the problem is the infant’s comfort. We need to make the infant feel comfort along the head circumference measurement to get a proper result of the examination. For that, we can use a helpful stuff, like a hat. This paper is aimed to describe the possibility of using a head circumference measuring instrument for early detection of hydrocephalus in an infant with a mike hat, coloured-tape-in-hat. In the first life, infants’ head size is about 35 centimeters. First three months after that infants will gain 2 centimeters each month. The second three months, infant’s head circumference will increase 1 cm each month. And for the six months later, the rate is 0.5 cm per month, and end up with an average of 47 centimeters. This formula is compared to the WHO’s head circumference growth chart. The shape of this tape-in-hat is alike an upper arm measurement. This tape-in-hat diameter is about 47 centimeters. It contains twelve different colours range by age. If it is out of the normal colour, the infant potentially suffers hydrocephalus. This examination should be done monthly. If in two times of measurement there still in the same range abnormal of head circumference, or a rapid growth of the head circumference size, the infant should be referred to a pediatrician. There are the pink hat for girls and blue hat for boys. Based on this paper, we know that this measurement can be used to help early detection of hydrocephalus in an infant.

Keywords: head circumference, hydrocephalus, infant, mike hat

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Authors: Monalisha Ghosh, Asit Mohanty

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The lack of sanitation increases living costs, decreases spend on education and nutrition, lowers income earning potential, and threatens safety and welfare. This is especially true for rural India. Only 32% of rural households have their own toilets and that less than half of Indian households have a toilet at home. Of the estimated billion people in the world who defecate in the open, more than half reside in rural India. It is empirically established that poor sanitation leads to high infant mortality rate and low income generation in rural India. In India, 1,600 children die every day before reaching their fifth birthday and 24% of girls drop out of school as the lack of basic sanitation. Above all, lack of sanitation is not a symptom of poverty but a major contributing factor. According to census 2011, 67.3% of the rural households in the country still did not have access to sanitation facilities. India’s sanitation deficit leads to losses worth roughly 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) according to World Bank estimates by raising the disease burden in the country. The dropout rate for girl child is thirty percent in schools in rural areas because of lack of sanitation facilities for girl students. The productivity loss per skilled labors during a year is calculated at Rs.44, 160 in Odisha. The performance of the state of Odisha has not been satisfactory in improving sanitation facilities. The biggest challenge is triggering behavior change in vast section of rural population regarding need to use toilets. Another major challenge is funding and implementation for improvement of sanitation facility. In an environment of constrained economic resources, Public Private Partnership in form of performance based management or maintenance contract will be all the more relevant to improve the sanitation status in rural sector.

Keywords: rural sanitation, infant mortality rate, income, granger causality, pooled OLS method test public private partnership

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Authors: W. Sriwattanapongse, S. Prasitwattanaseree, S. Wongtrangan

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The transportation accidents mortality is a major problem that leads to loss of human lives, and economic. The objective was to identify patterns of statistical modeling for estimating mortality rates due to transportation accidents in Thailand by using data from 2000 to 2009. The data was taken from the death certificate, vital registration database. The number of deaths and mortality rates were computed classifying by gender, age, year and region. There were 114,790 cases of transportation accidents deaths. The highest average age-specific transport accident mortality rate is 3.11 per 100,000 per year in males, Southern region and the lowest average age-specific transport accident mortality rate is 1.79 per 100,000 per year in females, North-East region. Linear, poisson and negative binomial models were chosen for fitting statistical model. Among the models fitted, the best was chosen based on the analysis of deviance and AIC. The negative binomial model was clearly appropriate fitted.

Keywords: transportation accidents, mortality, modeling, analysis of deviance

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Authors: Mohd Asrul Affedi, Nyi Nyi Naing

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Overdispersion is present in count data, and basically when a phenomenon happened, a Negative Binomial (NB) is commonly used to replace a standard Poisson model. Analysis of count data event, such as mortality cases basically Poisson regression model is appropriate. Hence, the model is not appropriate when existing a zero values. The zero-inflated negative binomial model is appropriate. In this article, we modelled the mortality cases as a dependent variable by age categorical. The objective of this study to determine existing overdispersion in mortality data of AIDS co-infection patients in Kelantan.

Keywords: negative binomial death rate, overdispersion, zero-inflation negative binomial death rate, AIDS

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Authors: Aftab Yusuf Raj

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Human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs) are complex carbohydrates. They are 3rd most abundant solid component found in breast milk, after lactose and lipids. HMO has profound beneficial health benefit effects on infants and toddlers. They have diverse roles, in immuno-modulation, development of neonatal gut, influencing the commensal microbiota of developing gut, and anti-inflammatory functions. HMOs, gut and commensal microbiota of the gut work synergistically to bring positive impact on infant and toddler health. HMO influences the gut-brain axis, maintains good mental health and cognitive function and inhibits neuronal inflammation. HMOs are now applied in infant nutrition, and supplementation of HMOs in infant formula is a promising innovation for infant nutrition.

Keywords: HMO’s, gut, epigenetic modulation, bacteria

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Authors: Mahadev Bhise, Nabanita Majumder

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Recent studies have found association between air pollutants and mortality, particularly how concentration of air pollutant explains under-five mortality across the countries. Thus, the present study evaluates the relationship between Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and under-five mortality, while controlling other well-being determinant of Under-five mortality in 100 countries using panel unbalanced cross sectional data. We have used PCSE and GMM model for the period 1990-2011 to meet our objectives. Our findings suggest that, the positive relationship between lagged periods of carbon dioxide and under-five mortality; the percentage of rural population with access of improved water is negatively associated with under-five mortality, while in case of urban population with access of improved water, is positively related to under-five mortality. Access of sanitation facility, food production index, GDP per capita, and concentration of urban population have significant negative impact on under-five mortality. Further, total fertility rate is significantly associated (positive) with under-five mortality which indicates relative change in fertility is related to relative change in under-five mortality.

Keywords: arbon dioxide (CO2), under-five mortality (0q5), gross domestic product (GDP), urban population, food production, panel corrected standard errors (PCSE), generalized method of moments (GMM)

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Authors: Lei Zhou, Chao Li, Ruiqi Ren, Dan Li, Yali Wang, Daxin Ni, Zijian Feng, Qun Li

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Background: Since the first human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) case was reported in China on 31 March 2013, five epidemics have been observed in China through February 2013 and September 2017. Though the overall mortality rate of H7N9 has remained as high as around 40% throughout the five epidemics, the specific mortality rate in Mainland China varied by provinces. We conducted a descriptive analysis of mortality rates of H7N9 cases to explore the various severity features of the disease and then to provide clues of further analyses of potential factors associated with the severity of the disease. Methods: The data for analysis originated from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report and Surveillance System (NNIDRSS). The surveillance system and identification procedure for H7N9 infection have not changed in China since 2013. The definition of a confirmed H7N9 case is as same as previous reports. Mortality rates of H7N9 cases are described and compared by time and location of reporting, age and sex, and genetic features of H7N9 virus strains. Results: The overall mortality rate, the male and female specific overall rates of H7N9 is 39.6% (608/1533), 40.3% (432/1072) and 38.2% (176/461), respectively. There was no significant difference between the mortality rates of male and female. The age-specific mortality rates are significantly varied by age groups (χ²=38.16, p < 0.001). The mortality of H7N9 cases in the age group between 20 and 60 (33.17%) and age group of over 60 (51.16%) is much higher than that in the age group of under 20 (5.00%). Considering the time of reporting, the mortality rates of cases which were reported in the first (40.57%) and fourth (42.51%) quarters of each year are significantly higher than the mortality of cases which were reported in the second (36.02%) and third (27.27%) quarters (χ²=75.18, p < 0.001). The geographic specific mortality rates vary too. The mortality rates of H7N9 cases reported from the Northeast China (66.67%) and Westeast China (56.52%) are significantly higher than that of H7N9 cases reported from the remained area of mainland China. The mortality rate of H7N9 cases reported from the Central China is the lowest (34.38%). The mortality rates of H7N9 cases reported from rural (37.76%) and urban (38.96%) areas are similar. The mortality rate of H7N9 cases infected with the highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (48.15%) is higher than the rate of H7N9 cases infected with the low pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (37.57%), but the difference is not statistically significant. Preliminary analyses showed that age and some clinical complications such as respiratory failure, heart failure, and septic shock could be potential risk factors associated with the death of H7N9 cases. Conclusions: The mortality rates of H7N9 cases varied by age, sex, time of reporting and geographical location in mainland China. Further in-depth analyses and field investigations of the factors associated with the severity of H7N9 cases need to be considered.

Keywords: H7N9 virus, Avian Influenza, mortality, China

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Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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Authors: Yi-Chuan Cheng, Li-Chi Huang, Yu-Shan Chang

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Introduction: The main purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between the learning number, care knowledge, care skills and maternal confidence in preterm infant care in Taiwan. Background: Preterm infants care has been stressful for mother caring at home. Many programs have been applied for improving the infant care maternal confident. But less to know the learning behavior in mothers of preterm infant. Methods: The sample consisted of 55 mothers with preterm infants were recruited in a neonatal intermediate unit at a medical center in central Taiwan. The self-reported questionnaires including knowledge and skills of preterm infant care scales and maternal confidence scale were used to evaluation, which were conducted during hospitalization, before hospital discharge, and one month after discharge. We performed by using Pearson correlation of the collected data using SPSS 18. Results: The study showed that the learning number and knowledge in preterm infant care was a significant positive correlation (r = .40), and the skills and confidence preterm infant care was positively correlated (r = .89). Conclusions: Study results showed the mother had more learning number in preterm infant care will be stronger knowledge, and the skills and confidence in preterm infant care were also positively correlated. Thus, we found the learning behavior change significant care knowledge. And the maternal confidence change significant with skill on preterm infant’s care. But bondage still needs further study and develop the participation in hospital-based instructional programs, which could lead to greater long-term retention of learning.

Keywords: learning behavior, care knowledge, care skills, maternal confidence

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Authors: Tzu-Jung Tseng, Pei-Hsuen Han, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

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Background: Choropleth mortality map is commonly used to identify areas with higher mortality risk. However, the use of choropleth map alone might result in the misinterpretation of differences in mortality rates between areas. Two areas with different color shades might not actually have a significant difference in mortality rates. The mortality rates estimated for an area with a small population would be less stable. We suggest of bringing the 95% confidence intervals (CI) into the choropleth mortality map to help users interpret the areal mortality rate difference more properly. Method: In the first choropleth mortality map, we used only three color to indicate standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for each district in Tainan, Taiwan. The red color denotes that the SMR of that district was significantly higher than the Tainan average; on the contrary, the green color suggests that the SMR of that district was significantly lower than the Tainan average. The yellow color indicates that the SMR of that district was not statistically significantly different from the Tainan average. In the second choropleth mortality map, we used traditional sequential color scheme (color ramp) for different SMR in 37 districts in Tainan City with bar chart of each SMR with 95% CI in which the users could examine if the line of 95% CI of SMR of two districts overlapped (nonsignificant difference). Results: The all-causes SMR of each district in Tainan for 2008 to 2013 ranged from 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80) in East District to 1.39 Beimen (95% CI 1.25 to 1.52). In the first choropleth mortality map, only 16 of 37 districts had red color and 8 districts had green color. For different causes of death, the number of districts with red color differed. In the first choropleth mortality map we added a bar chart with line of 95% CI of SMR in each district, in which the users could visualize the SMR differences between districts. Conclusion: Through the use of 95% CI the users could interpret the aral mortality differences more properly.

Keywords: choropleth map, small area variation, standardized mortality ratio (SMR), Taiwan

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Authors: Kamel Abdelaziz Mohamed

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Intoduction:Inadequate knowledge about obstetric admission and infrequent dealing with the obstetric patients in ICU results in high mortality and morbidity. Aim of the work:To evaluate the indications, course, severity of illness, and outcome of obstetric patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Patients and Methods: We collected baseline data and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores. ICU mortality was the primary outcome. Results: Seventy obstetric patients were admitted to the ICU over 3 years, 36 of these patients (51.4 %) were admitted during the antepartum period. The primary obstetric indication for ICU admission was pregnancy-induced hypertension (22 patients, 31.4%), followed by sepsis (8 patients, 11.4%) as the leading non-obstetric admission. The mean APACHE II score was 19.6. The predicted mortality rate based on the APACHE II score was 22%, however, only 4 maternal deaths (5.7%) were among the obstetric patients admitted to the ICU. Conclusion: Evaluation of obstetric patients by (APACHE II) scores showed higher predicted mortality rate, however the overall mortality was lower. Regular follow up, together with early detection of complications and prompt ICU admission necessitating proper management by specialized team can improve mortality.

Keywords: obstetric, complication, postpartum, sepsis

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Authors: Yu-Chuan Huang

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Introduction: There is a higher mortality rate for unplanned transfer to intensive care units. It also needs a longer length of stay and makes the intensive care unit beds cannot be effectively used. It affects the immediate medical treatment of critically ill patients, resulting in a drop in the quality of medical care. Purpose: The purpose of this study was using SOFA and APACHEII score to analyze the mortality rate of the cases transferred from ED to ICU. According to the score that should be provide an appropriate care as early as possible. Methods: This study was a descriptive experimental design. The sample size was estimated at 220 to reach a power of 0.8 for detecting a medium effect size of 0.30, with a 0.05 significance level, using G-power. Considering an estimated follow-up loss, the required sample size was estimated as 242 participants. Data were calculated by medical system of SOFA and APACHEII score that cases transferred from ED to ICU in 2016. Results: There were 233 participants meet the study. The medical records showed 33 participants’ mortality. Age and sex with QSOFA , SOFA and sex with APACHEII showed p>0.05. Age with APCHHII in ED and ICU showed r=0.150, 0,268 (p < 0.001**). The score with mortality risk showed: ED QSOFA is r=0.235 (p < 0.001**), exp(B)=1.685(p = 0.007); ICU SOFA 0.78 (p < 0.001**), exp(B)=1.205(p < 0.001). APACHII in ED and ICU showed r= 0.253, 0.286 (p < 0.001**), exp(B) = 1.041,1.073(p = 0.017,0.001). For SOFA, a cutoff score of above 15 points was identified as a predictor of the 95% mortality risk. Conclusions: The SOFA and APACHE II were calculated based on initial laboratory data in the Emergency Department, and during the first 24 hours of ICU admission. In conclusion, the SOFA and APACHII score is significantly associated with mortality and strongly predicting mortality. Early predictors of morbidity and mortality, which we can according the predicting score, and provide patients with a detail assessment and proper care, thereby reducing mortality and length of stay.

Keywords: SOFA, APACHEII, mortality, ICU

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Authors: Ch. Sridevi, A. Chalapathi Rao, P. Srinivasulu

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The location accuracy of data products is a critical parameter in assessing the geometric performance of satellite sensors. This study focuses on reliability analysis of onboard sensors to evaluate their performance in terms of location accuracy performance over time. The analysis utilizes field failure data and employs the weibull distribution to determine the reliability and in turn to understand the improvements or degradations over a period of time. The analysis begins by scrutinizing the location accuracy error which is the root mean square (RMS) error of differences between ground control point coordinates observed on the product and the map and identifying the failure data with reference to time. A significant challenge in this study is to thoroughly analyze the possibility of an infant mortality phase in the data. To address this, the Weibull distribution is utilized to determine if the data exhibits an infant stage or if it has transitioned into the operational phase. The shape parameter beta plays a crucial role in identifying this stage. Additionally, determining the exact start of the operational phase and the end of the infant stage poses another challenge as it is crucial to eliminate residual infant mortality or wear-out from the model, as it can significantly increase the total failure rate. To address this, an approach utilizing the well-established statistical Laplace test is applied to infer the behavior of sensors and to accurately ascertain the duration of different phases in the lifetime and the time required for stabilization. This approach also helps in understanding if the bathtub curve model, which accounts for the different phases in the lifetime of a product, is appropriate for the data and whether the thresholds for the infant period and wear-out phase are accurately estimated by validating the data in individual phases with Weibull distribution curve fitting analysis. Once the operational phase is determined, reliability is assessed using Weibull analysis. This analysis not only provides insights into the reliability of individual sensors with regards to location accuracy over the required period of time, but also establishes a model that can be applied to automate similar analyses for various sensors and parameters using field failure data. Furthermore, the identification of the best-performing sensor through this analysis serves as a benchmark for future missions and designs, ensuring continuous improvement in sensor performance and reliability. Overall, this study provides a methodology to accurately determine the duration of different phases in the life data of individual sensors. It enables an assessment of the time required for stabilization and provides insights into the reliability during the operational phase and the commencement of the wear-out phase. By employing this methodology, designers can make informed decisions regarding sensor performance with regards to location accuracy, contributing to enhanced accuracy in satellite-based applications.

Keywords: bathtub curve, geometric performance, Laplace test, location accuracy, reliability analysis, Weibull analysis

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Authors: Cecília M. Antão, Paulo Jorge Nogueira

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Breast cancer (BC) is the first cause of cancer mortality among Portuguese women. This retrospective observational study aimed at identifying comorbidities associated with BC female patients admitted to Portuguese public hospitals (2010-2018), investigating the effect of comorbidities on BC mortality rate, and building a predictive model using logistic regression. Results showed that the BC mortality in Portugal decreased in this period and reached 4.37% in 2018. Adjusted odds ratio indicated that secondary malignant neoplasms of liver, of bone and bone marrow, congestive heart failure, and diabetes were associated with an increased chance of dying from breast cancer. Although the Lisbon district (the most populated area) accounted for the largest percentage of BC patients, the logistic regression model showed that, besides patient’s age, being resident in Bragança, Castelo Branco, or Porto districts was directly associated with an increase of the mortality rate.

Keywords: breast cancer, comorbidities, logistic regression, adjusted odds ratio

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Authors: Matthew Heidman, Susan Dallabrida, Analice Costa

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For infant caregivers, choosing an infant formula for their child can be a difficult task in an already stressful environment of caring for a newborn. There exist several channels that influence purchasing decision of infant formula such as, friends and family and their experiences, health care professionals, social media influencers, as well as standard media marketing. This study sought to identify the key channels by which caregivers obtain information regarding infant formula and help them make their purchasing decision. A digital survey was issued for 90 days in the US (n=121) and 30 days in Mexico (n=88) targeting respondents with children ≤4 years of age. Respondents were asked two key questions regarding the influences on their purchasing decisions: 1) “When choosing a formula brand, what do you do to help you make your decision?”, and 2) “When choosing a formula brand, what is most important to you?”. A list of potential answers was provided for each question and respondents were asked to select all that apply to them. Lastly, respondents were provided a 5-point Likert scale and asked to respond to the statement 3) “I am more likely to buy a particular formula brand if my pediatrician recommends it to me”. For question 1, in the US and Mexico, 76% and 95% of respondents respectively, selected “I ask my pediatrician” which represented the top selection. For question 2, 52% and 45% of respondents respectively, selected “On package “Pediatrician Recommended” claim…” which also represented the top selection. For statement 3, 82% and 89% of respondents respectively, stated that they either “somewhat agree” or “strongly agree” with the statement. For infant caregivers, the pediatrician is a very important channel of influence when it comes to purchasing decision of infant formula. Caregivers clearly see the pediatrician as the arbiter of their child’s nutrition and seek their recommendations for infant formula use. For infant formula manufacturers, it is important that they see the pediatrician as the gatekeeper to this market, and they put resources into medical marketing communication to this health care professional group to ensure success.

Keywords: infant formula, pediatrician, purchasing driver, caregiver

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Authors: Nemeh Ahmad Al-Akour, Ibrahem Alfaouri

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Objective: To examine the level of maternal awareness of SIDS and its prevention amongst Jordanian mothers in the north of Jordan, as well as to determine their SIDS-related infant care practices. Design: A cross-sectional design. Setting: The study was conducted in maternal out-patients clinics of two teaching hospitals and three maternal and child health clinic in three major health care centers in Northern Jordan. Participants: A total of 356 mothers of infants attending the maternal and child health clinics were included in this study. Measurements and findings: A self-administered questionnaire was used for collecting data study. In this study, 64%of mothers didn’t hear about SIDS, while only 7% of mothers were able to identify factors risk-reducing recommendations. Avoidance of prone sleeping was the most frequently identified recommendation (5%). There were 67.7% of mothers who put their infant in a lateral position to sleep, 61% used soft mattress surface for their babies sleep and 25.8% who shared a bed with their babies. Employed mother, mothers of higher age, and mothers living within a nuclear family were the only factors associated with maternal awareness of SIDS. Friends were the highest a source of knowledge of SIDS for mothers (44.7%). Key conclusions: There was a low level of awareness of SIDS and its associated risk factor among the mothers in Jordan. The mothers' misconception about smoking and sleeping position for their infants requires further efforts. Implications for practice: To ensure raising awareness of infant care practice regarding SIDS, a national educational intervention on SIDS risk reduction strategies and recommendations is necessary for maintaining a low rate of SIDS in the population.

Keywords: bed sharing, infant care, Jordan, sleep position, sudden infant death

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Authors: Adrita Banerjee, Ajeet Kumar Singh

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Antenatal care (ANC) from a skilled provider is important to monitor the pregnancy and reduce the risk of morbidity for mother and baby during pregnancy and delivery. The quality of antenatal care can be monitored through the content of services received and the kind of information mothers are given during their visit. Objective: The paper tries to examine the association between ANC check-ups and size/ birth weight. It also focuses on investigating the relationship between utilization of recommended prenatal care for mothers and its effect on infant survival in Nepal. Data and methods: This paper uses data from Nepal demographic Health Survey 2011. To understand the relationship bi-variate statistical analysis and logistic regressions has been done. Maternal health care utilization include ANC check-ups i.e. the type of ante-natal care providers, the number and timing of the visit. The various components of the check-ups include intake of iron tablets/syrups, intestinal parasitic drugs, etc. Results: The results show that women who had no antenatal care visits about 40% had small sized babies at the time of birth compared to women to had at least 3 ANC check up. Women who had at least 3 check-ups 17% of the babies have a small size. It has also been found that about 50 % of the women prefer ANC check-ups during pregnancies which have resulted in lowering the infant mortality by about 40% during 1996-2011. Conclusion: Ante natal care check is care and monitoring of the pregnant woman and her foetus throughout pregnancy. ANC checks have an effect on the infant health and child survival. A woman who had at least three check-ups the possibilities of adverse effect on infant health and infant survival was significantly lower. The findings argue for a more enhanced focus on ANC check-ups for improving the maternal and child health in Nepal.

Keywords: maternal, health, pregnancy, outcome

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