Search results for: uncertainty quantification.

Authors: S. Sadi-Nezhad, K. Khalili Damghani, N. Pilevari

Abstract:

In this article, a mathematical programming model for choosing an optimum portfolio of investments is developed. The investments are considered as investment projects. The uncertainties of the real world are associated through fuzzy concepts for coefficients of the proposed model (i. e. initial investment costs, profits, resource requirement, and total available budget). Model has been coded by using LINGO 11.0 solver. The results of a full analysis of optimistic and pessimistic derivative models are promising for selecting an optimum portfolio of projects in presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: Fuzzy Programming, Fuzzy Knapsack, FuzzyCapital Budgeting, Fuzzy Project Selection

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Authors: A. M. Hassanain, Nader M. A. Mohamed, M. Naguib Aly, Alya A. Badawi, M. A. Gaheen

Abstract:

The thermal, epithermal and fast fluxes were calculated for three irradiation channels at Egypt Second Research Reactor (ETRR-2) using CITVAP code. The validity of the calculations was verified by experimental measurements. There are some deviations between measurements and calculations. This is due to approximations in the calculation models used, homogenization of regions, condensation of energy groups and uncertainty in nuclear data used. Neutron flux data for the three irradiation channels are now available. This would enable predicting the irradiation conditions needed for future radioisotope production.

Keywords: ETRR-2, Neutron flux, Radioisotope production, CITVAP

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Authors: J. Silvestre, L. Almeida, R. Marau, P. Pedreiras

Abstract:

Currently, there are many local area industrial networks that can give guaranteed bandwidth to synchronous traffic, particularly providing CBR channels (Constant Bit Rate), which allow improved bandwidth management. Some of such networks operate over Ethernet, delivering channels with enough capacity, specially with compressors, to integrate multimedia traffic in industrial monitoring and image processing applications with many sources. In these industrial environments where a low latency is an essential requirement, JPEG is an adequate compressing technique but it generates VBR traffic (Variable Bit Rate). Transmitting VBR traffic in CBR channels is inefficient and current solutions to this problem significantly increase the latency or further degrade the quality. In this paper an R(q) model is used which allows on-line calculation of the JPEG quantification factor. We obtained increased quality, a lower requirement for the CBR channel with reduced number of discarded frames along with better use of the channel bandwidth.

Keywords: Industrial Networks, Multimedia.

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Authors: B. Kettana

Abstract:

Nowadays, financial and economic crises are growing more and reach more countries and sectors. These events have, as a result, a considerable impact on the activities of the firms which think unstable and in danger. But besides this heavy uncertainty which weighs on the different firms, the family firm, object of our research, is not only confronted with these external difficulties but also with an internal challenge and of size: that of transmission. Indeed, the transmission of an organization from one generation to another can succeed as it can fail; leaving considerable damage. Our research registers as part of these problems since we tried to understand relation between the behavior of two main actors of the process of succession, predecessor and successor; and the success of transmission.

Keywords: Family business, transmission, success, predecessor, successor.

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Authors: A. Ehsani, A. Karimizadeh, H. Fallahi, A. Jalali

Abstract:

In an electric power system, spinning reserve requirements can be determined by using deterministic and/or probabilistic measures. Although deterministic methods are usual in many systems, application of probabilistic methods becomes increasingly important in the new environment of the electric power utility industry. This is because of the increased uncertainty associated with competition. In this paper 1) a new probabilistic method is presented which considers the reliability of transmission system in a simplified manner and 2) deterministic and probabilistic methods are compared. The studied methods are applied to the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS).

Keywords: Reliability, Spinning Reserve, Risk, Transmission, Unit Commitment.

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Authors: Ali Salehipour

Abstract:

After presenting the theory of calendar function of Iran-s cross-vaults especially “Niasar" cross-vault in recent years, there has been lots of doubts and uncertainty about this theory by astrologists and archaeologists. According to this theory “Niasar cross-vault and other cross-vaults of Iran has calendar function and are constructed in a way that sunrise and sunset can be seen from one of its openings in the beginning and middle of each season of year". But, mentioning historical documentaries we conclude here that the theory of calendar function of Iran-s cross-vaults does not have any strong basis and individual cross-vaults had only religious function in Iran.

Keywords: cross-vault, fire temple, Calendar function, Sassanid period

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Authors: L. Sterken, S. Sebben, L. Löfdahl

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In this paper an alternative visualisation approach of the wake behind different vehicle body shapes with simplified and fully-detailed underbody has been proposed and analysed. This allows for a more clear distinction among the different wake regions. This visualisation is based on a transformation of the cartesian coordinates of a chosen wake plane to polar coordinates, using as filter velocities lower than the freestream. This transformation produces a polar wake plot that enables the division and quantification of the wake in a number of sections. In this paper, local drag has been used to visualise the drag contribution of the flow by the different sections. Visually, a balanced wake can be observed by the concentric behaviour of the polar plots. Alternatively, integration of the local drag of each degree section as a ratio of the total local drag yields a quantifiable approach of the wake uniformity, where different sections contribute equally to the local drag, with the exception of the wheels.

Keywords: Coordinate transformation, ground vehicle, local drag, wake.

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Authors: Donatella R. Fiorino, Marzia Loddo

Abstract:

The practice of freeing monuments from subsequent additions crosses the entire history of conservation and it is traditionally connected to the aim of valorisation, both for cultural and educational purpose and recently even for touristic exploitation. Defence heritage has been widely interested by these cultural and technical moods from philological restoration to critic innovations. A renovated critical analysis of Italian episodes and in particular the Sardinian case of the area of San Pancrazio in Cagliari, constitute an important lesson about the limits of this practice and the uncertainty in terms of results, towards the definition of a sustainable good practice in the restoration of military architectures.

Keywords: Defensive architecture, Liberation, Valorisation for tourism, Historical restoration.

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Authors: Wajeeha A. Qazi, Mohammed-Hasham Azam, Umais A. Mehmood, Ghithaa A. Al-Mufragi, Noor-Alhuda Alrawahi, Mohammed F. M. Abushammala

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Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposed in landfill sites decompose under anaerobic conditions and produce gases which mainly contain carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄). Methane has the potential of causing global warming 25 times more than CO₂, and can potentially affect human life and environment. Thus, this research aims to determine MSW generation and the annual CH₄ emissions from the generated waste in Oman over the years 1971-2030. The estimation of total waste generation was performed using existing models, while the CH₄ emissions estimation was performed using the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) default method. It is found that total MSW generation in Oman might be reached 3,089 Gg in the year 2030, which approximately produced 85 Gg of CH₄ emissions in the year 2030.

Keywords: Methane, emissions, landfills, solid waste.

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Sergio Toniato, Ernesto Benini

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The flow field over a three dimensional pole barn characterized by a cylindrical roof has been numerically investigated. Wind pressure and viscous loads acting on the agricultural building have been analyzed for several incoming wind directions, so as to evaluate the most critical load condition on the structure. A constant wind velocity profile, based on the maximum reference wind speed in the building site (peak gust speed worked out for 50 years return period) and on the local roughness coefficient, has been simulated. In order to contemplate also the hazard due to potential air wedging between the stored hay and the lower part of the ceiling, the effect of a partial filling of the barn has been investigated. The distribution of wind-induced loads on the structure have been determined, allowing a numerical quantification of the effect of wind direction on the induced stresses acting on a hemicylindrical roof.

Keywords: CFD, wind, building, hemicylindrical roof.

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Authors: Kiurski J., Adamović S., Oros I., Krstić J., Đogo M.

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Most often the contaminants are not taken seriously into consideration, and this behavior comes out directly from the lack of monitoring and professional reporting about pollution in the printing facilities in Serbia. The goal of planned and systematic ozone measurements in ambient air of the screen printing facilities in Novi Sad is to examine of its impact on the employees health, and to track trends in concentration. In this study, ozone concentrations were determined by using discontinuous and continuous method during the automatic and manual screen printing process. Obtained results indicates that the average concentrations of ozone measured during the automatic process were almost 3 to 28 times higher for discontinuous and 10 times higher for continuous method (1.028 ppm) compared to the values prescribed by OSHA. In the manual process, average concentrations of ozone were within prescribed values for discontinuous and almost 3 times higher for continuous method (0.299 ppm).

Keywords: indoor pollution, ozone, screen printing

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Authors: Wei Lo, Ming-En Kuo

Abstract:

While to minimize the overall project cost is always one of the objectives of construction managers, to obtain the maximum economic return is definitely one the ultimate goals of the project investors. As there is a trade-off relationship between the project time and cost, and the project delivery time directly affects the timing of economic recovery of an investment project, to provide a method that can quantify the relationship between the project delivery time and cost, and identify the optimal delivery time to maximize economic return has always been the focus of researchers and industrial practitioners. Using genetic algorithms, this study introduces an optimization model that can quantify the relationship between the project delivery time and cost and furthermore, determine the optimal delivery time to maximize the economic return of the project. The results provide objective quantification for accurately evaluating the project delivery time and cost, and facilitate the analysis of the economic return of a project.

Keywords: Time-Cost Trade-Off, Genetic Algorithms, Resource Integration, Economic return.

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Authors: Hae-Yeoun Lee

Abstract:

Quantification of cardiac function is performed by calculating blood volume and ejection fraction in routine clinical practice. However, these works have been performed by manual contouring, which requires computational costs and varies on the observer. In this paper, an automatic left ventricle segmentation algorithm on cardiac magnetic resonance images (MRI) is presented. Using knowledge on cardiac MRI, a K-mean clustering technique is applied to segment blood region on a coil-sensitivity corrected image. Then, a graph searching technique is used to correct segmentation errors from coil distortion and noises. Finally, blood volume and ejection fraction are calculated. Using cardiac MRI from 15 subjects, the presented algorithm is tested and compared with manual contouring by experts to show outstanding performance.

Keywords: Cardiac MRI, Graph searching, Left ventricle segmentation, K-means clustering.

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Authors: Werner Reichenfelser, Harald Hackl, Josef Hufgard, Karin Gstaltner, Margit Gfoehler

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Training with Functional Electrical Stimulation (FES) has both physiological and psychological benefits for spinal cord injured subjects. Commonly used methods for quantification of spasticity have shown controversial reliability. In this study we propose a method for quick determination of spasticity in spinal cord injured subjects on a cycling and measurement system. 23 patients did training sessions on an instrumented mobile FES cycle three times a week over two months as part of their clinical rehabilitation program. Spasticity (MAS) and the legs resistance to the pedaling motion were assessed before and after the FES training and measurements were done on the subjects ability to pedal with our without motor assistance. Measurements with test persons with incomplete spastic paraplegia have shown that spasticity is decreased after a 30 min cycling training with functional electrical stimulation (FES).

Keywords: Spasticity, paraplegia, spinal cord injury, functional electrical stimulation.

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Authors: Naoya Ozaki, Takuya Watanabe, Ryosuke Matsumoto, Noriko Fukasawa

Abstract:

In the metropolitan areas in Japan, in many stations, shopping areas are set up, and escalators and elevators are installed to make the stations be barrier-free. Further, many areas around the stations are being redeveloped. Railway business operators want to know how much effect these circumstances have on attractiveness of the station or number of passengers using the station. So, we performed a questionnaire survey of the station users in the metropolitan areas for finding factors to affect the attractiveness of stations. Then, based on the analysis of the survey, we developed a method to quantitatively evaluate attractiveness of the stations. We also developed an estimation method for number of passengers based on combination of attractiveness of the station quantitatively evaluated and the residential and labor population around the station. Then, we derived precise linear regression models estimating the attractiveness of the station and number of passengers of the station.

Keywords: Attractiveness of the station, estimation method, number of passengers of the station, redevelopment around the station, renovation of the station.

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Authors: Qingqing Wang, Baocheng Chen, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of stability criteria for Markovian jumping BAM neural networks with leakage and discrete delays has been investigated. Some new sufficient condition are derived based on a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach. These new criteria based on delay partitioning idea are proved to be less conservative because free-weighting matrices method and a convex optimization approach are considered. Finally, one numerical example is given to illustrate the the usefulness and feasibility of the proposed main results.

Keywords: Stability, Markovian jumping neural networks, Timevarying delays, Linear matrix inequality.

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Authors: Alia Alghosoun, Nabil El Moçayd, Mohammed Seaid

Abstract:

Modeling dam-break flows over non-flat beds requires an accurate representation of the topography which is the main source of uncertainty in the model. Therefore, developing robust and accurate techniques for reconstructing topography in this class of problems would reduce the uncertainty in the flow system. In many hydraulic applications, experimental techniques have been widely used to measure the bed topography. In practice, experimental work in hydraulics may be very demanding in both time and cost. Meanwhile, computational hydraulics have served as an alternative for laboratory and field experiments. Unlike the forward problem, the inverse problem is used to identify the bed parameters from the given experimental data. In this case, the shallow water equations used for modeling the hydraulics need to be rearranged in a way that the model parameters can be evaluated from measured data. However, this approach is not always possible and it suffers from stability restrictions. In the present work, we propose an adaptive optimal control technique to numerically identify the underlying bed topography from a given set of free-surface observation data. In this approach, a minimization function is defined to iteratively determine the model parameters. The proposed technique can be interpreted as a fractional-stage scheme. In the first stage, the forward problem is solved to determine the measurable parameters from known data. In the second stage, the adaptive control Ensemble Kalman Filter is implemented to combine the optimality of observation data in order to obtain the accurate estimation of the topography. The main features of this method are on one hand, the ability to solve for different complex geometries with no need for any rearrangements in the original model to rewrite it in an explicit form. On the other hand, its achievement of strong stability for simulations of flows in different regimes containing shocks or discontinuities over any geometry. Numerical results are presented for a dam-break flow problem over non-flat bed using different solvers for the shallow water equations. The robustness of the proposed method is investigated using different numbers of loops, sensitivity parameters, initial samples and location of observations. The obtained results demonstrate high reliability and accuracy of the proposed techniques.

Keywords: Optimal control, ensemble Kalman Filter, topography reconstruction, data assimilation, shallow water equations.

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Authors: N. Lokeshwari, G Srinikethan, S. G. Joshi, I. Shasikala, B. Srikanth, Bashirahmed, L. Sushma

Abstract:

Water pollution is a major concern for the pulp and paper industry due to the large quantities of effluents generated. Biodegradation of industrial Lignin and AOX by a fungal isolate identified as Aspergillus flavus, white rot fungi which was isolated from Pulp and Paper effluent was studied in batch flask system with industrial effluent and synthetic solution. The flasks were operated at temperature 32°C at 200rpm for eight days in continuous mode. The average overall pH, Temperature, DO, C.O.D, T.D.S, T.S.S, Lignin, AOX were up to 4.56, 32oC, 4.2mg/l, 104mg/l, 6000 mg/l, 4000mg/l, 575.5mg/l, 2195 mg/l respectively after treatment. The Aspergillus flavus sp was the most effective in the biodegradation of Lignin of pulp industry for 94% at 480nm, AOX for 62% at 510nm and of chemical oxygen demand levels for 45% after 8 days of incubation. The optimal conditions found were 4 pH and 32oC temperature for lignin and AOX degradation.

Keywords: Aspergillus flavus, Lignin, Optimal conditions, Quantification studies.

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Authors: Omid Jadidi, Fatemeh Firouzi, Enzo Bagliery

Abstract:

Supplier selection, in real situation, is affected by several qualitative and quantitative factors and is one of the most important activities of purchasing department. Since at the time of evaluating suppliers against the criteria or factors, decision makers (DMS) do not have precise, exact and complete information, supplier selection becomes more difficult. In this case, Grey theory helps us to deal with this problem of uncertainty. Here, we apply Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method to evaluate and select the best supplier by using interval fuzzy numbers. Through this article, we compare TOPSIS with some other approaches and afterward demonstrate that the concept of TOPSIS is very important for ranking and selecting right supplier.

Keywords: TOPSIS, fuzzy number, MADM, Supplier selection

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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Authors: Panam. Zarfam, Mohsen. Javan Pour

Abstract:

Recently, analysis and designing of the structures based on the Reliability theory have been the center of attention. Reason of this attention is the existence of the natural and random structural parameters such as the material specification, external loads, geometric dimensions etc. By means of the Reliability theory, uncertainties resulted from the statistical nature of the structural parameters can be changed into the mathematical equations and the safety and operational considerations can be considered in the designing process. According to this theory, it is possible to study the destruction probability of not only a specific element but also the entire system. Therefore, after being assured of safety of every element, their reciprocal effects on the safety of the entire system can be investigated.

Keywords: Probability, Reliability, Statistics, Uncertainty

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Authors: Adam Niewiadomski

Abstract:

Political transition of agricultural properties in Poland and the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) after 1989 had to include not only Reprivatization but also the issue of returning the properties in kind to their former owners. Restitution in kind applied in GDR to all forms of ownership which were subject to expropriation between 1933 and 1989 except for properties taken over during Soviet occupation in 1945-49. This issue was one of the flashpoints during the process of ownership changes. Privatization, limited as it was, took place in unequal legal environment where only one group of owners was privileged. Executing restitution in kind created a feeling of uncertainty among potential real estate buyers.

Keywords: Reprivatization, agricultural properties, German Democratic Republic, Privatization

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Authors: B. Medjahed, M. A. Didi, B. Guezzen

Abstract:

This work concerns with the experimental study of the adsorption of the Ni(II) on bentonite. The effects of various parameters such as contact time, stirring rate, initial concentration of Ni(II), masse of clay, initial pH of aqueous solution and temperature on the adsorption yield, were carried out. The study of the effect of the ionic strength on the yield of adsorption was examined by the identification and the quantification of the present chemical species in the aqueous phase containing the metallic ion Ni(II). The adsorbed species were investigated by a calculation program using CHEAQS V. L20.1 in order to determine the relation between the percentages of the adsorbed species and the adsorption yield. The optimization process was carried out using 2³ factorial designs. The individual and combined effects of three process parameters, i.e. initial Ni(II) concentration in aqueous solution (2.10⁻³ and 5.10⁻³ mol/L), initial pH of the solution (2 and 6.5), and mass of bentonite (0.03 and 0.3 g) on Ni(II) adsorption, were studied.

Keywords: Adsorption, bentonite, factorial design, Nickel(II).

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Authors: Ali Haroonabadi, Mohammad Teshnehlab

Abstract:

None of the processing models in the software development has explained the software systems performance evaluation and modeling; likewise, there exist uncertainty in the information systems because of the natural essence of requirements, and this may cause other challenges in the processing of software development. By definition an extended version of UML (Fuzzy- UML), the functional requirements of the software defined uncertainly would be supported. In this study, the behavioral description of uncertain information systems by the aid of fuzzy-state diagram is crucial; moreover, the introduction of behavioral diagrams role in F-UML is investigated in software performance modeling process. To get the aim, a fuzzy sub-profile is used.

Keywords: Fuzzy System, Software Development Model, Software Performance Evaluation, UML

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Authors: Dominykas Broga

Abstract:

Until recently it would have been unusual to consider classifying population movements and refugees as security problem. However, efforts at shaping our world to make ourselves secure have paradoxically led to ever greater insecurity. The feeling of uncertainty, pertinent throughout all discourses of security, has led to the creation of security production into seemingly benign routines of everyday life. Yet, the paper argues, neither of security discourses accounted for, disclosed and challenged the fundamental aporias embedded in Western security narratives. In turn, the paper aims to unpick the conventional security wisdom, which is haunted with strong ontologies, embedded in the politics of Orientalism, and (in)security nexus. The paper concludes that current security affair conceals the integral impossibility of fulfilling its very own promise of assured security. The paper also provides suggestions about alternative security discourse based on mutual dialogue.

Keywords: Identity, (in)security, migration, ontology

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Authors: R. Oonsivilai, N. Chaijareonudomroung, Y. Huantanom, A. Oonsivilai

Abstract:

The optimal extraction condition of dried Echinocactus grusonii powder was studied. The three independent variables are raw material drying temperature, extraction temperature, and extraction time. The dependent variables are both yield percentage of crude extract and total phenolic quantification as gallic acid equivalent in crude extract. The experimental design was based on central composite design. Highest yield percentage of crude extract could get from extraction condition at raw material drying temperature at 60°C, extraction temperature at 15°C, and extraction time for 25 min °C. Moreover, the crude extract with highest phenolic occurred by extraction condition of raw material drying temperature at 60°C, extraction temperature at 35 °C, and extraction lasting 25 min.

Keywords: Drying temperature, Extraction temperature, Optimal condition, Total phenolic

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Authors: A. Aydarous, M. El Ghazaly

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate the response of the newly released Gafchromic HD-V2 film for alpha particle of 5.5 MeV. Gafchromic HD-V2 was exposed to alpha particles of energy 5 MeV from 241Am for different durations. Then the films were scanned with a flatbed scanner. The dose response curve up to 2200 Gy has been achieved. The film’s reproducibility and sensitivity were evaluated. The results obtained show that the net optical density increases almost exponentially with the increase in the exposure time, and it becomes saturated after prolonged exposure times. The red channel shows the highest sensitivity, with a value of 4 x 10-3 Gy-1 at netOD of 0.4. The inter-film reproducibility was measured and the relative uncertainty found was 1.7 %, 2.1 % and 2.3 % for grey, red and green channels, respectively.

Keywords: Alpha dosimetry, 241Am, Gafchromic film.

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Authors: Musbah M. Aqel, P. K. Mahanti, Soumya Banerjee

Abstract:

This paper describes a simulation model for analyzing artificial emotion injected to design the game characters. Most of the game storyboard is interactive in nature and the virtual characters of the game are equipped with an individual personality and dynamic emotion value which is similar to real life emotion and behavior. The uncertainty in real expression, mood and behavior is also exhibited in game paradigm and this is focused in the present paper through a fuzzy logic based agent and storyboard. Subsequently, a pheromone distribution or labeling is presented mimicking the behavior of social insects.

Keywords: Artificial Emotion, Fuzzy logic, Game character, Pheromone label

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Authors: Bogdan Walek, Vladimir Bradac, Radim Farana

Abstract:

Distance learning systems offer useful methods of learning and usually contain a final course test or another form of test. The paper proposes a web application for evaluating tests using an expert system in distance learning systems. The proposed web application is appropriate for didactic tests or tests with results for subsequent studying follow-up courses. The web application works with test questions and uses an expert system and LFLC tool for test evaluation. After test evaluation, the results are visualized and shown to the student.

Keywords: Distance learning, test, uncertainty, fuzzy, expert system, student.

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Authors: V. I. Thajudin Ahamed, P. Dhanasekaran, A. Naseem, N. G. Karthick, T. K. Abdul Jaleel, Paul K.Joseph

Abstract:

It is established that the instantaneous heart rate (HR) of healthy humans keeps on changing. Analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has become a popular non invasive tool for assessing the activities of autonomic nervous system. Depressed HRV has been found in several disorders, like diabetes mellitus (DM) and coronary artery disease, characterised by autonomic nervous dysfunction. A new technique, which searches for pattern repeatability in a time series, is proposed specifically for the analysis of heart rate data. These set of indices, which are termed as pattern repeatability measure and pattern repeatability ratio are compared with approximate entropy and sample entropy. In our analysis, based on the method developed, it is observed that heart rate variability is significantly different for DM patients, particularly for patients with diabetic foot ulcer.

Keywords: Autonomic nervous system, diabetes mellitus, heart rate variability, pattern identification, sample entropy

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