Search results for: incremental lifetime cancer risk

Authors: A. Shukla, A. Tarsauliya, R. Tiwari, S. Sharma

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Cancer classification to their corresponding cohorts has been key area of research in bioinformatics aiming better prognosis of the disease. High dimensionality of gene data has been makes it a complex task and requires significance data identification technique in order to reducing the dimensionality and identification of significant information. In this paper, we have proposed a novel approach for classification of oral cancer into metastasis positive and negative patients. We have used significance analysis of microarrays (SAM) for identifying significant genes which constitutes gene signature. 3 different gene signatures were identified using SAM from 3 different combination of training datasets and their classification accuracy was calculated on corresponding testing datasets using k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN), Fuzzy C-Means Clustering (FCM), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN). A final gene signature of only 9 genes was obtained from above 3 individual gene signatures. 9 gene signature-s classification capability was compared using same classifiers on same testing datasets. Results obtained from experimentation shows that 9 gene signature classified all samples in testing dataset accurately while individual genes could not classify all accurately.

Keywords: Cancer, Gene Signature, SAM, Classification.

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Authors: Hromada Martin

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Risk analysis is considered as a fundamental aspect relevant for ensuring the level of critical infrastructure protection, where the critical infrastructure is seen as system, asset or its part which is important for maintaining the vital societal functions. Article actually discusses and analyzes the potential application of selected tools of information support for the implementation and within the framework of risk analysis and critical infrastructure protection. Use of the information in relation to their risk analysis can be viewed as a form of simplifying the analytical process. It is clear that these instruments (information support) for these purposes are countless, so they were selected representatives who have already been applied in the selected area of critical infrastructure, or they can be used. All presented fact were the basis for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation methodology development.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Protection, Resilience, Risk Analysis.

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Authors: Monica Dudian , Raluca Andreea Popa

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This article analyses the relationship between sovereign credit risk rating and gross domestic product for Central and Eastern European Countries for the period 1996 – 2010. In order to study the metioned relationship, we have used a numerical transformation of the risk qualification, thus: we marked 0 the lowest risk; then, we went on ascending, with a pace of 5, up to the score of 355 corresponding to the maximum risk. The used method of analysis is that of econometric modelling with EViews 7.0. programme. This software allows the analysis of data into a pannel type system, involving a mix of periods of time and series of data for different entities. The main conclusion of the work is the one confirming the negative relationship between the sovereign credit risk and the gross domestic product for the Central European and Eastern countries during the reviewed period.

Keywords: credit rating agencies, economic growth, gross domestic product, sovereign credit risk rating.

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Authors: Avelino Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov, Xavier Muianga

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This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.

Keywords: ICT, KM, scenario planning, backcasting and flood risk management.

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: Decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques.

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Authors: B. O. Diyaolu, O. O. Oyerinde

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This study examined the effect of sexuality education training programs on the knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior among secondary school adolescents in Ibadan North Local Government area of Oyo State. A total of 105 students were sampled from two schools in the Local Government area. 70 students constituted the experimental group while 35 constituted the control group. Pretest-Posttest control group quasi-experimental design was adopted. A self-developed questionnaire was used to test participants’ knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior before and after the training (α = .62, .82 and .74). Analysis indicated a significant effect of sexuality education training on participants’ knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior, a significant gender difference in knowledge of sexual risk behavior but no significant age and gender difference in the practice of sexual risk behavior. It was thus concluded that sexuality education should be taught in schools and emphasized at homes with no age or gender restrictions.

Keywords: Early adolescent, health risk, sexual risk behavior, sexuality education.

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Authors: A. Allirani, M. Suganthi

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Data gathering is an essential operation in wireless sensor network applications. So it requires energy efficiency techniques to increase the lifetime of the network. Similarly, clustering is also an effective technique to improve the energy efficiency and network lifetime of wireless sensor networks. In this paper, an energy efficient cluster formation protocol is proposed with the objective of achieving low energy dissipation and latency without sacrificing application specific quality. The objective is achieved by applying randomized, adaptive, self-configuring cluster formation and localized control for data transfers. It involves application - specific data processing, such as data aggregation or compression. The cluster formation algorithm allows each node to make independent decisions, so as to generate good clusters as the end. Simulation results show that the proposed protocol utilizes minimum energy and latency for cluster formation, there by reducing the overhead of the protocol.

Keywords: Sensor networks, Low latency, Energy sorting protocol, data processing, Cluster formation.

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

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This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: Decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability.

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Authors: F. Saccucci

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Gamification has now started to take root in the post-secondary classroom. Educators have learned much about gamification to date but there is still a great deal to learn. One definition of gamification is the ability to engage post-secondary students with games that are fun and correlate to class room curriculum. There is no shortage of literature illustrating the advantages of gamification in the class room. This study is an extension of similar thought as well as an extension of a previous study where in class testing proved with the used of paired T-test that gamification did significantly improve the students’ understanding of subject material. Gamification itself in the class room can range from high end computer simulated software to paper based games of which both have advantages and disadvantages. This analysis used a paper based game to highlight certain qualitative advantages of gamification. The paper based game in this analysis was inexpensive, required low preparation time for the faculty member and consumed approximately 20 minutes of class room time. Data for the study was collected through in class student feedback surveys and narrative from the faculty member moderating the game. Students were randomly selected into groups of four. Qualitative advantages identified in this analysis included: 1. Students had a chance to meet, connect and know other students. 2. Students enjoyed the gamification process given there was a sense of fun and competition. 3. The post assessment that followed the simulation game was not part of their grade calculation therefore it was an opportunity to participate in a low risk activity whereby students could subsequently self-assess their understanding of the subject material. 4. In the view of the student, content knowledge did increase after the gamification process. These qualitative advantages identified in this analysis contribute to the argument that there should be an attempt to use gamification in today’s post-secondary class room. The analysis also highlighted that eighty (80) percent of the respondents believe twenty minutes devoted to the gamification process was appropriate, however twenty (20) percentage of respondents believed that rather than scheduling a gamification process and its post quiz in the last week, a review for the final exam may have been more useful. An additional study to this hopes to determine if the scheduling of the gamification had any correlation to a percentage of the students not wanting to be engaged in the process. As well, the additional study hopes to determine at what incremental level of time invested in class room gamification produce no material incremental benefits to the student as well as determine if any correlation exist between respondents preferring not to have it at the end of the semester to students not believing the gamification process added to the increase of their curricular knowledge.

Keywords: Gamification, inexpensive, qualitative advantages, post-secondary.

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Authors: MP. Mulaudzi, MA. Petersen, J. Mukuddem-Petersen , IM. Schoeman, B. de Waal, JM. Manale

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This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).

Keywords: Investors; Jump Diffusion Process, Structured Mortgage Products, Treasuries, Credit Risk, Credit Default Swaps, Tranching Risk, Counterparty Risk, Value-at-Risk, Swaps-at-Risk, Subprime Mortgage Crisis.

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Authors: Gabriela-Andreea Despescu, Mădălina-Elena Mavrodin, Gheorghe Lăzăroiu, Florin Adrian Grădinaru

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The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the enhancement of a hydroelectric plant protection by coordinating protection measures / existing security and introducing new measures under a risk management process. In addition, plan identifies key critical elements of a hydroelectric plant, from its level vulnerabilities and threats it is subjected to in order to achieve the necessary protection measures to reduce the level of risk.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, risk analysis, critical infrastructure protection, vulnerability, risk management, turbine, Impact analysis.

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Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

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Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

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Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: Capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based.

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Authors: Zachariah Sinkala

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A systems approach model for prostate cancer in prostate duct, as a sub-system of the organism is developed. It is accomplished in two steps. First this research work starts with a nonlinear system of coupled Fokker-Plank equations which models continuous process of the system like motion of cells. Then extended to PDEs that include discontinuous processes like cell mutations, proliferation and deaths. The discontinuous processes is modeled by using intensity poisson processes. The model incorporates the features of the prostate duct. The system of PDEs spatial coordinate is along the proximal distal axis. Its parameters depend on features of the prostate duct. The movement of cells is biased towards distal region and mutations of prostate cancer cells is localized in the proximal region. Numerical solutions of the full system of equations are provided, and are exhibit traveling wave fronts phenomena. This motivates the use of the standard transformation to derive a canonically related system of ODEs for traveling wave solutions. The results obtained show persistence of prostate cancer by showing that the non-negative cone for the traveling wave system is time invariant. The traveling waves have a unique global attractor is proved also. Biologically, the global attractor verifies that evolution of prostate cancer stem cells exhibit the avascular tumor growth. These numerical solutions show that altering prostate stem cell movement or mutation of prostate cancer cells lead to avascular tumor. Conclusion with comments on clinical implications of the model is discussed.

Keywords: Fokker-Plank equations, global attractor, stem cell.

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Authors: Gerard E. Sleefe

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There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that simultaneously optimizes innovation attributes along with traditional project management and system engineering attributes. To demonstrate the efficacy of the new riskbased approach, a comprehensive product development experiment was conducted. This experiment simultaneously managed the innovation risks and the product delivery risks through the proposed risk-based framework. Quantitative metrics for technology innovation were tracked and the experimental results indicate that the risk-based approach can simultaneously achieve both project deliverable and innovation objectives.

Keywords: innovation, risk assessment, product development, technology management.

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Authors: Mawloud Mosbah, Bachir Boucheham

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We present here the results for a comparative study of some techniques, available in the literature, related to the relevance feedback mechanism in the case of a short-term learning. Only one method among those considered here is belonging to the data mining field which is the K-nearest neighbors algorithm (KNN) while the rest of the methods is related purely to the information retrieval field and they fall under the purview of the following three major axes: Shifting query, Feature Weighting and the optimization of the parameters of similarity metric. As a contribution, and in addition to the comparative purpose, we propose a new version of the KNN algorithm referred to as an incremental KNN which is distinct from the original version in the sense that besides the influence of the seeds, the rate of the actual target image is influenced also by the images already rated. The results presented here have been obtained after experiments conducted on the Wang database for one iteration and utilizing color moments on the RGB space. This compact descriptor, Color Moments, is adequate for the efficiency purposes needed in the case of interactive systems. The results obtained allow us to claim that the proposed algorithm proves good results; it even outperforms a wide range of techniques available in the literature.

Keywords: CBIR, Category Search, Relevance Feedback (RFB), Query Point Movement, Standard Rocchio’s Formula, Adaptive Shifting Query, Feature Weighting, Optimization of the Parameters of Similarity Metric, Original KNN, Incremental KNN.

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

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The study aims to explore the relationship between risk perception of rockfall and revisit intention using a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis. A total of 573 valid questionnaires are collected from travelers to Taroko National Park, Taiwan. The findings show the majority of travelers have the medium perception of rockfall risk, and are willing to revisit the Taroko National Park. The revisit intention to Taroko National Park is influenced by hazardous preferences, willingness-to-pay, obstruction and attraction. The risk perception has an indirect effect on revisit intention through influencing willingness-to-pay. The study results can be a reference for mitigation the rockfall disaster.

Keywords: Risk perception, rockfall, revisit intention, structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Mohammad Hassan Heidari, Amir Hossein Goodarzi, Majid Azarniush

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Radiation doses to tissues and organs were measured using the anthropomorphic phantom as an equivalent to the human body. When high-energy X-rays are externally applied to treat laryngeal cancer, the absorbed dose at the laryngeal lumen is lower than given dose because of air space, which it should pass through, before reaching the lesion. Specially, in case of high-energy X-rays, the loss of dose is considerable. Three-dimensional absorbed dose distributions have been computed for high-energy photon radiation therapy of laryngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers, using a coaxial pair of opposing lateral beams in fixed positions. Treatment plans obtained under various conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: 3D Treatment Planning, anthropomorphic phantom, larynx cancer, radiotherapy.

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Authors: Azman, K., Sahar, M.R., Rohani, M.S.

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Series of tellurite glass of the system 78TeO2-10PbO- 10Li2O-(2-x)Nd2O3-xEr2O3, where x = 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 was successfully been made. A study of upconversion luminescence of the Nd3+/Er3+ co-doped tellurite glass has been carried out. From Judd-Ofelt analysis, the experimental lifetime, exp. τ of the glass serie are found higher in the visible region as they varies from 65.17ms to 114.63ms, whereas in the near infrared region (NIR) the lifetime are varies from 2.133ms to 2.270ms. Meanwhile, the emission cross section,σ results are found varies from 0.004 x 1020 cm2 to 1.007 x 1020 cm2 with respect to composition. The emission spectra of the glass are found been contributed from Nd3+ and Er3+ ions by which nine significant transition peaks are observed. The upconversion mechanism of the co-doped tellurite glass has been shown in the schematic energy diagrams. In this works, it is found that the excited state-absorption (ESA) is still dominant in the upconversion excitation process as the upconversion excitation mechanism of the Nd3+ excited-state levels is accomplished through a stepwise multiphonon process. An efficient excitation energy transfer (ET) has been observed between Nd3+ as a donor and Er3+ as the acceptor. As a result, respective emission spectra had been observed.

Keywords: Tellurite glass, co-dopant, upconvertionluminescence spectra.

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Authors: Amaneh Javid, Shahin Ahmadian, Ali A. Saboury, Saeed Rezaei-Zarchi

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This study determines the effect of naked and heparinbased super-paramagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles on the human cancer cell lines of A2780. Doxorubicin was used as the anticancer drug, entrapped in the SPIO-NPs. This study aimed to decorate nanoparticles with heparin, a molecular ligand for 'active' targeting of cancerous cells and the application of modified-nanoparticles in cancer treatment. The nanoparticles containing the anticancer drug DOX were prepared by a solvent evaporation and emulsification cross-linking method. The physicochemical properties of the nanoparticles were characterized by various techniques, and uniform nanoparticles with an average particle size of 110±15 nm with high encapsulation efficiencies (EE) were obtained. Additionally, a sustained release of DOX from the SPIO-NPs was successful. Cytotoxicity tests showed that the SPIO-DOX-HP had higher cell toxicity than the individual HP and confocal microscopy analysis confirmed excellent cellular uptake efficiency. These results indicate that HP based SPIO-NPs have potential uses as anticancer drug carriers and also have an enhanced anticancer effect.

Keywords: Heparin, A2780 cells, ovarian cancer, nanoparticles, doxorubicin.

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Authors: Morakot Worachairungreung

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The objectives of the research are to study patterns of fire location distribution and develop techniques of Geographic Information System application in fire risk assessment for fire planning and management. Fire risk assessment was based on two factors: the vulnerability factor such as building material types, building height, building density and capacity for mitigation factor such as accessibility by road, distance to fire station, distance to hydrants and it was obtained from four groups of stakeholders including firemen, city planners, local government officers and local residents. Factors obtained from all stakeholders were converted into Raster data of GIS and then were superimposed on the data in order to prepare fire risk map of the area showing level of fire risk ranging from high to low. The level of fire risk was obtained from weighted mean of each factor based on the stakeholders. Weighted mean for each factor was obtained by Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

Keywords: Fire Risk Assessment, Geographic Information System: GIS, Raster Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

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Authors: Pamita Awasthi, Kirna, Shilpa Dogra, Manu Vatsal, Ritu Barthwal

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Doxorubicin, also known as Adriamycin, is an anthracycline class of drug used in cancer chemotherapy. It is used in the treatment of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, multiple myeloma, acute leukemia, breast cancer, lung cancer, endometrium cancer and ovary cancers. It functions via intercalating DNA and ultimately killing cancer cells. The major side effects of doxorubicin are hair loss, myelosuppression, nausea & vomiting, oesophagitis, diarrhea, heart damage and liver dysfunction. The minor modifications in the structure of compound exhibit large variation in the biological activity, has prompted us to carry out the synthesis of sulfonamide derivatives. Sulfonamide is an important feature with broad spectrum of biological activity such as antiviral, antifungal, diuretics, antiinflammatory, antibacterial and anticancer activities. Structure of the synthesized compound N-(1-methyl-2-oxo-2-N-methyl anilinoethyl) benzene sulfonamide confirmed by proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR),13C NMR, Mass and FTIR spectroscopic tools to assure the position of all protons and hence stereochemistry of the molecule. Further we have reported the binding potential of synthesized sulfonamide analogues in comparison to doxorubicin drug using Auto Dock 4.2 software. Computational binding energy (B.E.) and inhibitory constant (Ki) has been evaluated for the synthesized compound in comparison of doxorubicin against Poly (dA-dT).Poly (dA-dT) and Poly (dG-dC).Poly (dG-dC) sequences. The in vitro cytotoxic study against human breast cancer cell lines confirms the better anticancer activity of the synthesized compound over currently in use anticancer drug doxorubicin. The IC50 value of the synthesized compound is 7.12 μM whereas for doxorubicin is 7.2 μM.

Keywords: Anticancer, Auto Dock, Doxorubicin, Sulfonamide.

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Authors: Laila Seada, Nouf Al Gharbi, Shaimaa Dawa

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Although skin cancers are prevalent worldwide, it is uncommon in Ha’il region in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, mostly non-melanoma sub-type. During a 4-year period from 2014 to 2017, out of a total of 120 cases of skin lesions, 29 non-melanoma cancers were retrieved from histopathology files obtained from King Khalid Hospital. As part of the study, all cases of skin cancer diagnosed during 2014 -2017 have been revised and the clinicopathological data recorded. The results show that Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) was the most common neoplasm (36%), followed by cutaneous lymphomas (mostly mycosis fungoides 25%), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (21%) and dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans (DFSP) (11%). Only one case of metastatic carcinoma was recorded. BCC nodular type was the most prevalent, with a mean age 57.6 years and mean size 2.73 cm. SCC was mostly grade 2, with mean size 1.9 cm and an older mean age of 72.3 cm. Increased size of lesion positively correlated with older age (p = 0.001). Non-melanoma skin cancer in Ha’il region is not frequently encountered. BCC is the most frequent followed by cutaneous T-cell lymphomas and SCC. The findings in this study were in accordance with other parts of, but much lower than other parts of the world.

Keywords: Non melanoma skin cancer, Hail Region, histopathology, BCC.

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Authors: Ebrahim Farahmand, Ali Mahani

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Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) can facilitate continuous monitoring of patients and increase early detection of emergency conditions and diseases. High density WSNs helps us to accurately monitor a remote environment by intelligently combining the data from the individual nodes. Due to energy capacity limitation of sensors, enhancing the lifetime and the reliability of WSNs are important factors in designing of these networks. The clustering strategies are verified as effective and practical algorithms for reducing energy consumption in WSNs and can tackle WSNs limitations. In this paper, an Energy-efficient weight-based Clustering Protocol (EWCP) is presented. Artificial retina is selected as a case study of WSNs applied in body sensors. Cluster heads’ (CHs) selection is equipped with energy efficient parameters. Moreover, cluster members are selected based on their distance to the selected CHs. Comparing with the other benchmark protocols, the lifetime of EWCP is improved significantly.

Keywords: Clustering of WSNs, healthcare monitoring, weight-based clustering, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: Airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment.

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Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai

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Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.

Keywords: Tourism industry, extreme weather, multi-hazard, vulnerability analysis, loss exceeding probability, risk management.

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: Agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes.

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: Sepehr M.H.Jamarani, M.H.Moradi, H.Behnam, G.A.Rezai Rad

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for early breast cancer diagnostic by employing combination of artificial neural networks (ANN) and multiwaveletpacket based subband image decomposition. The microcalcifications correspond to high-frequency components of the image spectrum, detection of microcalcifications is achieved by decomposing the mammograms into different frequency subbands,, reconstructing the mammograms from the subbands containing only high frequencies. For this approach we employed different types of multiwaveletpacket. We used the result as an input of neural network for classification. The proposed methodology is tested using the Nijmegen and the Mammographic Image Analysis Society (MIAS) mammographic databases and images collected from local hospitals. Results are presented as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) performance and are quantified by the area under the ROC curve.

Keywords: Breast cancer, neural networks, diagnosis, multiwavelet packet, microcalcification.

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater.

In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: Drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement.

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