Search results for: average of average run length

Authors: Somtop Keawchuer

Abstract:

The objective of this research was to study the factors related to the satisfaction of consumers who purchased a Toyota SUV Fortuner. This paper was a survey data which collected 400 samples from 65 car dealerships. The survey was conducted mainly in Bangkok, Thailand. The statistics utilized in this paper included percentage, mean, standard deviation and Pearson Product-Moment. The findings revealed that the majority of respondent were male with an undergraduate degree, married and live together. The average income of the respondents was between 20,001 - 30,000 baht. Most of them worked for private companies. Most of them had a family with the average of 4 members. The hypotheses testing revealed that the factors of marketing mix in terms of product (ability, gas mileage, and safety) were related to overall satisfaction at the medium level. However, the findings also revealed that the factors of marketing mix in terms of product (image), price, and promotion, and service center were related to the overall satisfaction at the low level.

Keywords: Car Consumers, Factors related, Overall Satisfaction.

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Authors: Manal H. Saleh

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A numerical study has been carried out to investigate the heat transfer by natural convection of nanofluid taking Cu as nanoparticles and the water as based fluid in a three dimensional annulus enclosure filled with porous media (silica sand) between two horizontal concentric cylinders with 12 annular fins of 2.4mm thickness attached to the inner cylinder under steady state conditions. The governing equations which used are continuity, momentum and energy equations under an assumptions used Darcy law and Boussinesq-s approximation which are transformed to dimensionless equations. The finite difference approach is used to obtain all the computational results using the MATLAB-7. The parameters affected on the system are modified Rayleigh number (10 ≤Ra*≤ 1000), fin length Hf (3, 7 and 11mm), radius ratio Rr (0.293, 0.365 and 0.435) and the volume fraction(0 ≤ ¤ò ≤ 0 .35). It was found that the average Nusselt number depends on (Ra*, Hf, Rr and φ). The results show that, increasing of fin length decreases the heat transfer rate and for low values of Ra*, decreasing Rr cause to decrease Nu while for Ra* greater than 100, decreasing Rr cause to increase Nu and adding Cu nanoparticles with 0.35 volume fraction cause 27.9% enhancement in heat transfer. A correlation for Nu in terms of Ra*, Hf and φ, has been developed for inner hot cylinder.

Keywords: Annular fins, laminar free convection, nanofluid, porous media, three dimensions horizontal annulus.

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Authors: Brian H. Marsh

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Self-propelled forage harvesters in the 850 horsepower range were tested over three years for fuel consumption, throughput and quality of chop for corn silage. Cut length had a significant effect on fuel consumption, throughput and some aspects of chop quality. Measure cut length was often different than theoretical length of cut. Where cut length was equivalent fuel consumption and throughput were equivalent across brands. Shortening cut length from 17 to 11mm increases fuel consumption 53 percent measured as Mg of silage harvested per gallon of fuel used and a 42 percent decrease in capacity as tons of fresh material per hour run time.

Keywords: Corn silage, forage harvester, fuel use, length of cut.

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Authors: Routsukol Sunalai

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This research purpose is to study and compare the administration of Buddhist monks at northeastern Thailand. The samples used in the study are the priest in the Northeast by simple random sampling for 190 sampling. The tools used in this study is questioner were created in the 40 question items. The statistics used for data analysis were percentage, average, and standard deviation. The research found that the human resources management for the Buddhist monks as a whole is moderate. But it was found that the highest average is the policy followed by the management information. The Buddhist monks aged less than 25 years old with the overall difference was not significant. The priests who are less than 10 years in the monk experience and the priest has long held in the position for 10 years are not different in the significant level.

Keywords: Buddhist monks, human resources management, Northeastern Thailand, hotel industry, the administration of Buddhist monks.

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

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This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: Classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER.

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Authors: Amjad Abdullah, Amjad Yahya, Bushra Aljohani, Amani S. Alghamdi

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Change point detection is an important part of data analysis. The presence of a change point refers to a significant change in the behavior of a time series. In this article, we examine the detection of multiple change points of parameters of the exponential Lomax distribution, which is broad and flexible compared with other distributions while fitting data. We used the Schwarz information criterion and binary segmentation to detect multiple change points in publicly available data on the average temperature in the ozone layer. The change points were successfully located.

Keywords: Binary segmentation, change point, exponential Lomax distribution, information criterion.

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Authors: Eman. K. Ramadan, Abdelgawad. S. El-Tahawy

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of calving season on the production and economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. Our study was performed at dairy production farms in the Alexandria, Behera, and Kafr El-Sheikh provinces of Egypt from summer 2010 to winter 2013. The randomly selected dairy farms had herds consisting of Baladi, Holstein-Friesian, or cross-bred (Baladi × Holstein-Friesian) cows. The data were collected from production records and responses to a structured questionnaire. The average total return differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the different cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average total return was highest for the Holstein- Friesian cows that calved in the winter (29106.42 EGP/cow/year), and it was lowest for Baladi cows that calved in the summer (12489.79 EGP/cow/year). Differences in total returns between the cows that calved in the winter or summer or between the foreign and native breeds, as well as variations in calf prices, might have contributed to the differences in milk yield. The average net profit per cow differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average net profit values for the Baladi cows that calved in the winter or summer were 2413 and 2994.96 EGP/cow/year, respectively, and those for the Holstein- Friesian cows were 10744.17 and 7860.56 EGP/cow/year, respectively, whereas those for the cross-bred cows were 10174.86 and 7571.33 EGP/cow/year, respectively. The variations in net profit might have resulted from variation in the availability or price of feed materials, milk prices, or sales volumes. Our results show that the breed and calving season of dairy cows significantly affected the economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. The cows that calved in the winter produced more milk than those that calved in the summer, which may have been the result of seasonal influences, such as temperature, humidity, management practices, and the type of feed or green fodder available.

Keywords:

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Authors: A. G. Margaryan

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Ability of adaptation of the organism is considered as an important component of health in maintaining relative dynamic constancy of the hemostasis and functioning of all organs and systems. Among the various forms of adaptation (individual, species and mental), social adaptation of the organism has a particular role. The aim of this study was to evaluate the subjective perception of social factors, social welfare and the level of adaptability of Armenian physicians. The survey involved 2,167 physicians (592 men and 1,575 women). According to the survey, most physicians (75.1%) were married. It was found that 88.6% of respondents had harmonious family relationships, 7.6% of respondents – tense relationships, and 1.0% – marginal relationships. The results showed that the average monthly salary with all premium payments amounted to 88 263.6±5.0 drams, and 16.7% of physicians heavily relied on the material support of parents or other relatives. Low material welfare was also confirmed by the analysis of the living conditions. Analysis of the results showed that the degree of subjective perception of social factors of different specialties averaged 11.3±3.1 points, which corresponds to satisfactory results (a very good result – 4.0 points). The degree of social adaptation of physicians on average makes 4.13±1.9 points, which corresponds to poor results (allowable less than 3.0 points). The distribution of the results of social adaptation severity revealed that the majority of physicians (58.6%) showed low social adaptation, average social adaptation is observed in 22.4% of the physicians and high adaptation – in only 17.4% of physicians. In conclusions, the findings of this study suggest that the degree of social adaptation of currently practicing physicians is low.

Keywords: Physician's health, social adaptation, social factor, social health.

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Authors: Mamdouh Y. Saleh, Gaber EL Enany, Medhat H. Elzahar, Mohamed Z. Elshikhipy, Rana Hamouda

Abstract:

The heavy metals pollution in water, sediments and fish of Lake Manzala affected form the disposal of wastewater, industrial and agricultural drainage water into the lake on the environmental situation. A pilot plant with an industrial discharge flow of 135L/h designed according to the activated sludge plant to simulate between the biological and chemical treatment with the addition of alum to the aeration tank with dosages of 100, 150, 200 and 250 mg/L. The industrial discharge had concentrations of Lead and BOD₅ with an average range 1.22, 145mg/L respectively. That means the average Pb was high up to 25 times than the allowed permissible concentration. The optimization of the chemical-biological process using 200mg/L Alum dosage compared has improvement of Lead and BOD₅ removal efficiency to 61.76% and 56% respectively.

Keywords: Industrial wastewater, Activated sludge, BOD5, Lead, Alum salt.

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Authors: Davood Shishebori, Mohammad Saber Fallah Nezhad, Sina Seifi

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In this paper, a variable multiple dependent state (MDS) sampling plan is developed based on the process capability index using Bayesian approach. The optimal parameters of the developed sampling plan with respect to constraints related to the risk of consumer and producer are presented. Two comparison studies have been done. First, the methods of double sampling model, sampling plan for resubmitted lots and repetitive group sampling (RGS) plan are elaborated and average sample numbers of the developed MDS plan and other classical methods are compared. A comparison study between the developed MDS plan based on Bayesian approach and the exact probability distribution is carried out.

Keywords: MDS sampling plan, RGS plan, sampling plan for resubmitted lots, process capability index, average sample number, Bayesian approach.

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Authors: Jihyung Kim, Taejin Kim, Sungho Park, Jun-Dong Cho

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In this paper, we address the problem of reducing the switching activity (SA) in on-chip buses through the use of a bus binding technique in high-level synthesis. While many binding techniques to reduce the SA exist, we present yet another technique for further reducing the switching activity. Our proposed method combines bus binding and data sequence reordering to explore a wider solution space. The problem is formulated as a multiple traveling salesman problem and solved using simulated annealing technique. The experimental results revealed that a binding solution obtained with the proposed method reduces 5.6-27.2% (18.0% on average) and 2.6-12.7% (6.8% on average) of the switching activity when compared with conventional binding-only and hybrid binding-encoding methods, respectively.

Keywords: low power, bus binding, switching activity, multiple traveling salesman problem, data sequence reordering

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Authors: Shih-Bin Wang, Ping Yuan, Syu-Fang Liu, Ming-Jun Kuo

Abstract:

By the application of an improved back-propagation neural network (BPNN), a model of current densities for a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) with 10 layers is established in this study. To build the learning data of BPNN, Taguchi orthogonal array is applied to arrange the conditions of operating parameters, which totally 7 factors act as the inputs of BPNN. Also, the average current densities achieved by numerical method acts as the outputs of BPNN. Comparing with the direct solution, the learning errors for all learning data are smaller than 0.117%, and the predicting errors for 27 forecasting cases are less than 0.231%. The results show that the presented model effectively builds a mathematical algorithm to predict performance of a SOFC stack immediately in real time. Also, the calculating algorithms are applied to proceed with the optimization of the average current density for a SOFC stack. The operating performance window of a SOFC stack is found to be between 41137.11 and 53907.89. Furthermore, an inverse predicting model of operating parameters of a SOFC stack is developed here by the calculating algorithms of the improved BPNN, which is proved to effectively predict operating parameters to achieve a desired performance output of a SOFC stack.

Keywords: a SOFC stack, BPNN, inverse predicting model of operating parameters, optimization of the average current density

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Authors: M. O. Welcome, Y. E. Razvodovsky, V. A. Pereverzev

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There is a variety of inconsistencies in the differences in alcohol use and related problems between male and female genders. This study was aimed at analyzing the gender differences in alcohol use and related problems among university students in Minsk, Belarus. A total of 465 male (average age of 21) and 1030 female (average age of 20.5) students from four major universities in Minsk, Belarus were administered WHO recommended standardized screening instruments – AUDIT, MAST, CAGE questionnaire, as well as other alcohol related questions. The male to female ratio for the prevalence of alcohol problems according to the AUDIT was 3.34, while the ratio for alcohol users was 0.97. There are a wide gender differences in the pattern of alcohol use and preference for different alcoholic beverages, cause for drinking, and other alcohol related problems like injuries and blackouts.

Keywords: Alcohol related problems, Gender differences, University students, Belarus.

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Authors: Bhaskar Thakker, Anoop Lal Vyas

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Wrist pulse analysis for identification of health status is found in Ancient Indian as well as Chinese literature. The preprocessing of wrist pulse is necessary to remove outlier pulses and fluctuations prior to the analysis of pulse pressure signal. This paper discusses the identification of irregular pulses present in the pulse series and intricacies associated with the extraction of time domain pulse features. An approach of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) has been utilized for the identification of outlier pulses in the wrist pulse series. The ambiguity present in the identification of pulse features is resolved with the help of first derivative of Ensemble Average of wrist pulse series. An algorithm for detecting tidal and dicrotic notch in individual wrist pulse segment is proposed.

Keywords: Wrist Pulse Segment, Ensemble Average, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), Pulse Similarity Vector.

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Authors: M.Ghazvini, S. A. Monadjemi, N. Movahhedinia, K. Jamshidi

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In this article, a method has been offered to classify normal and defective tiles using wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The proposed algorithm calculates max and min medians as well as the standard deviation and average of detail images obtained from wavelet filters, then comes by feature vectors and attempts to classify the given tile using a Perceptron neural network with a single hidden layer. In this study along with the proposal of using median of optimum points as the basic feature and its comparison with the rest of the statistical features in the wavelet field, the relational advantages of Haar wavelet is investigated. This method has been experimented on a number of various tile designs and in average, it has been valid for over 90% of the cases. Amongst the other advantages, high speed and low calculating load are prominent.

Keywords: Defect detection, tile and ceramic quality inspection, wavelet transform, classification, neural networks, statistical features.

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Authors: Hichem Sassi, Tawfik Najeh, Noureddine Liouane

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Information of nodes’ locations is an important criterion for lots of applications in Wireless Sensor Networks. In the hop-based range-free localization methods, anchors transmit the localization messages counting a hop count value to the whole network. Each node receives this message and calculates its own distance with anchor in hops and then approximates its own position. However the estimative distances can provoke large error, and affect the localization precision. To solve the problem, this paper proposes an algorithm, which makes the unknown nodes fix the nearest anchor as a reference and select two other anchors which are the most accurate to achieve the estimated location. Compared to the DV-Hop algorithm, experiment results illustrate that proposed algorithm has less average localization error and is more effective.

Keywords: Wireless Sensors Networks, Localization problem, localization average error, DV–Hop Algorithm, MATLAB.

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Authors: Z.Farhadpour, Mohammad.R.Meybodi

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A number of routing algorithms based on learning automata technique have been proposed for communication networks. How ever, there has been little work on the effects of variation of graph scarcity on the performance of these algorithms. In this paper, a comprehensive study is launched to investigate the performance of LASPA, the first learning automata based solution to the dynamic shortest path routing, across different graph structures with varying scarcities. The sensitivity of three main performance parameters of the algorithm, being average number of processed nodes, scanned edges and average time per update, to variation in graph scarcity is reported. Simulation results indicate that the LASPA algorithm can adapt well to the scarcity variation in graph structure and gives much better outputs than the existing dynamic and fixed algorithms in terms of performance criteria.

Keywords: Learning automata, routing, algorithm, sparse graph

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Authors: Sumeet S. Nisale, Chandan J. Bharambe, Vidya N.More

Abstract:

We propose our genuine research of geometric moments which detects the mineral inadequacy in the frail groundnut plant. This plant is prone to many deficiencies as a result of the variance in the soil nutrients. By analyzing the leaves of the plant, we detect the visual symptoms that are not recognizable to the naked eyes. We have collected about 160 samples of leaves from the nearby fields. The images have been taken by keeping every leaf into a black box to avoid the external interference. For the first time, it has been possible to provide the farmer with the stages of deficiencies. This paper has applied the algorithms successfully to many other plants like Lady-s finger, Green Bean, Lablab Bean, Chilli and Tomato. But we submit the results of the groundnut predominantly. The accuracy of our algorithm and method is almost 93%. This will again pioneer a kind of green revolution in the field of agriculture and will be a boon to that field.

Keywords: Component image, geometric moments, average intensity, average affected area, black box

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Authors: Mahmoud S. Ahmed, Hany A. Mohamed, Mohamed A. Omara, Mohamed F. Abdeen

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Experimental study of natural convection heat transfer inside smooth and rough surfaces of vertical and inclined equilateral triangular channels of different inclination angles with a uniformly heated surface are performed. The inclination angle is changed from 15º to 90º. Smooth and rough surface of average roughness (0.02mm) are used and their effect on the heat transfer characteristics are studied. The local and average heat transfer coefficients and Nusselt number are obtained for smooth and rough channels at different heat flux values, different inclination angles and different Rayleigh numbers (Ra) 6.48 × 105 ≤ Ra ≤ 4.78 × 106. The results show that the local Nusselt number decreases with increase of axial distance from the lower end of the triangular channel to a point near the upper end of channel, and then, it slightly increases. Higher values of local Nusselt number for rough channel along the axial distance compared with the smooth channel. The average Nusselt number of rough channel is higher than that of smooth channel by about 8.1% for inclined case at θ = 45o and 10% for vertical case. The results obtained are correlated using dimensionless groups for both rough and smooth surfaces of the inclined and vertical triangular channels.

Keywords: Natural heat transfer convection, constant heat flux, open channels, heat transfer.

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Authors: Sanjay Singh, M Sathish Kumar, H. S Mruthyunjaya

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Multicarrier transmission system such as Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) is a promising technique for high bit rate transmission in wireless communication system. OFDM is a spectrally efficient modulation technique that can achieve high speed data transmission over multipath fading channels without the need for powerful equalization techniques. However the price paid for this high spectral efficiency and less intensive equalization is low power efficiency. OFDM signals are very sensitive to nonlinear effects due to the high Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), which leads to the power inefficiency in the RF section of the transmitter. This paper investigates the effect of PAPR reduction on the performance parameter of multicarrier communication system. Performance parameters considered are power consumption of Power Amplifier (PA) and Digital-to-Analog Converter (DAC), power amplifier efficiency, SNR of DAC and BER performance of the system. From our analysis it is found that irrespective of PAPR reduction technique being employed, the power consumption of PA and DAC reduces and power amplifier efficiency increases due to reduction in PAPR. Moreover, it has been shown that for a given BER performance the requirement of Input-Backoff (IBO) reduces with reduction in PAPR.

Keywords: BER, Crest Factor (CF), Digital-to-Analog Converter(DAC), Input-Backoff (IBO), Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing(OFDM), Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), PowerAmplifier efficiency, SNR

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Authors: Teerapun Saeheaw, Nivit Charoenchai, Wichai Chattinnawat

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Simulation model is an easy way to build up models to represent real life scenarios, to identify bottlenecks and to enhance system performance. Using a valid simulation model may give several advantages in creating better manufacturing design in order to improve the system performances. This paper presents result of implementing a simulation model to design hard disk drive manufacturing process by applying line balancing to improve both productivity and quality of hard disk drive process. The line balance efficiency showed 86% decrease in work in process, output was increased by an average of 80%, average time in the system was decreased 86% and waiting time was decreased 90%.

Keywords: line balancing, arena, hard disk drive process, simulation, work in process (WIP)

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Authors: Dali Zhang, Baoqun Yin, Hongsheng Xi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a single sample path based algorithm with state aggregation to optimize the average rewards of singularly perturbed Markov reward processes (SPMRPs) with a large scale state spaces. It is assumed that such a reward process depend on a set of parameters. Differing from the other kinds of Markov chain, SPMRPs have their own hierarchical structure. Based on this special structure, our algorithm can alleviate the load in the optimization for performance. Moreover, our method can be applied on line because of its evolution with the sample path simulated. Compared with the original algorithm applied on these problems of general MRPs, a new gradient formula for average reward performance metric in SPMRPs is brought in, which will be proved in Appendix, and then based on these gradients, the schedule of the iteration algorithm is presented, which is based on a single sample path, and eventually a special case in which parameters only dominate the disturbance matrices will be analyzed, and a precise comparison with be displayed between our algorithm with the old ones which is aim to solve these problems in general Markov reward processes. When applied in SPMRPs, our method will approach a fast pace in these cases. Furthermore, to illustrate the practical value of SPMRPs, a simple example in multiple programming in computer systems will be listed and simulated. Corresponding to some practical model, physical meanings of SPMRPs in networks of queues will be clarified.

Keywords: Singularly perturbed Markov processes, Gradient of average reward, Differential reward, State aggregation, Perturbed close network.

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Authors: Yu-Jen Chang, Shih-Chieh Chen, Yu-Wei Kuo

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In this study, we are interested in the economic lot scheduling problem (ELSP) that considers manufacturing of the serviceable products and remanufacturing of the reworked products. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model for the ELSP with reworks using the basic period approach. In order to solve this problem, we propose a search algorithm to find the cyclic multiplier ki of each product that can be cyclically produced for every ki basic periods. This research also uses two heuristics to search for the optimal production sequence of all lots and the optimal time length of the basic period so as to minimize the average total cost. This research uses a numerical example to show the effectiveness of our approach.

Keywords: Economic lot, reworks, inventory, basic period.

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Authors: Yan Ma, ShunBao Li

Abstract:

A new approach is adopted in this paper based on Turk and Pentland-s eigenface method. It was found that the probability density function of the distance between the projection vector of the input face image and the average projection vector of the subject in the face database, follows Rayleigh distribution. In order to decrease the false acceptance rate and increase the recognition rate, the input face image has been recognized using two thresholds including the acceptance threshold and the rejection threshold. We also find out that the value of two thresholds will be close to each other as number of trials increases. During the training, in order to reduce the number of trials, the projection vectors for each subject has been averaged. The recognition experiments using the proposed algorithm show that the recognition rate achieves to 92.875% whilst the average number of judgment is only 2.56 times.

Keywords: Eigenface, Face Recognition, Threshold, Rayleigh Distribution, Feature Extraction

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Authors: Yongzheng Li, Hongfang Ma, Qiwen Sun, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying

Abstract:

Radial profiles of particle velocities were investigated in a 6.1m high methanol-to-olefins cold model experimental device using a TSI laser Doppler velocimeter. The effect of axial height on flow development was not obvious in fully developed region under the same operating condition. Superficial gas velocity and solid circulating rate had significant influence on particle velocity in the center region of the riser. Besides, comparisons among rising, descending and average particle velocity were conducted. The particle average velocity was similar to the rising particle velocity and higher than the descending particle velocity in radial locations except the wall region of riser.

Keywords: Circulating fluidized bed, laser doppler velocimeter, particle velocity, radial profile.

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Authors: Kiurski J., Adamović S., Oros I., Krstić J., Đogo M.

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Most often the contaminants are not taken seriously into consideration, and this behavior comes out directly from the lack of monitoring and professional reporting about pollution in the printing facilities in Serbia. The goal of planned and systematic ozone measurements in ambient air of the screen printing facilities in Novi Sad is to examine of its impact on the employees health, and to track trends in concentration. In this study, ozone concentrations were determined by using discontinuous and continuous method during the automatic and manual screen printing process. Obtained results indicates that the average concentrations of ozone measured during the automatic process were almost 3 to 28 times higher for discontinuous and 10 times higher for continuous method (1.028 ppm) compared to the values prescribed by OSHA. In the manual process, average concentrations of ozone were within prescribed values for discontinuous and almost 3 times higher for continuous method (0.299 ppm).

Keywords: indoor pollution, ozone, screen printing

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Authors: Hossein Taherian Far, Ali Bazaee

Abstract:

Achieving continuous sustained economic growth and following economic development can be the target for all countries which are looking for it. In this regard, distribution industry plays an important role in growth and development of any nation. So, estimating the efficiency and productivity of the so called industry and identifying factors influencing it, is very necessary. The objective of the present study is to measure the efficiency and productivity of seven branches of Nina Distribution Company using window data envelopment analysis and Malmquist productivity index from spring 2013 to summer 2015. In this study, using criteria of fixed assets, payroll personnel, operating costs and duration of collection of receivables were selected as inputs and people and net sales, gross profit and percentage of coverage to customers were selected as outputs. Then, the process of performance window data envelopment analysis was driven and process efficiency has been measured using Malmquist index. The results indicate that the average technical efficiency of window Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model and fluctuating trend is sustainable. But the average management efficiency in window DEA model is related with negative growth (decline) of about 13%. The mean scale efficiency in all windows, except in the second one which is faced with 8%, shows growth of 18% compared to the first window. On the other hand, the mean change in total factor productivity in all branches of the industry shows average negative growth (decrease) of 12% which are the result of a negative change in technology.

Keywords: Nina Distribution Company branches, window data envelopment analysis, Malmquist productivity index.

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Authors: Mogari I. Rapoo, Diteboho Xaba

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This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.

Keywords: ARIMA, artificial neural networks models, error metrics, exchange rates.

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Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

Abstract:

An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: Finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability.

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Authors: Tatiana A. Dolenko, Sergey A. Burikov, Alexander O. Efitorov, Sergey A. Dolenko

Abstract:

In this study, a comparative analysis of the approaches associated with the use of neural network algorithms for effective solution of a complex inverse problem – the problem of identifying and determining the individual concentrations of inorganic salts in multicomponent aqueous solutions by the spectra of Raman scattering of light – is performed. It is shown that application of artificial neural networks provides the average accuracy of determination of concentration of each salt no worse than 0.025 M. The results of comparative analysis of input data compression methods are presented. It is demonstrated that use of uniform aggregation of input features allows decreasing the error of determination of individual concentrations of components by 16-18% on the average.

Keywords: Inverse problems, multi-component solutions, neural networks, Raman spectroscopy.

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