Search results for: exchange rates.

Authors: Pavla Ruzickova, Petr Teply

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There are many debates now regarding undervalued and overvalued currencies currently traded on the world financial market. This paper contributes to these debates from a theoretical point of view. We present the three most commonly used methods of estimating the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (REER): macroeconomic balance approach, external sustainability approach and equilibrium real effective exchange rate approach in the reduced form. Moreover, we discuss key concepts of the calculation of the real exchange rate (RER) based on applied explanatory variables: nominal exchange rates, terms of trade and tradable and non-tradable goods. Last but not least, we discuss the three main driving forces behind real exchange rates movements which include terms of trade, relative productivity growth and the interest rate differential.

Keywords: real exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange, terms of trade

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Authors: Anders Schou Simonsen, Thomas Condra, Kim Sørensen

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Various processes are modelled using a discrete phase, where particles are seeded from a source. Such particles can represent liquid water droplets, which are affecting the continuous phase by exchanging thermal energy, momentum, species etc. Discrete phases are typically modelled using parcel, which represents a collection of particles, which share properties such as temperature, velocity etc. When coupling the phases, the exchange rates are integrated over the cell, in which the parcel is located. This can cause spikes and fluctuating exchange rates. This paper presents an alternative method of coupling a discrete and a continuous plug flow phase. This is done using triangular parcels, which span between nodes following the dynamics of single droplets. Thus, the triangular parcels are propagated using the corner nodes. At each time step, the exchange rates are spatially integrated over the surface of the triangular parcels, which yields a smooth continuous exchange rate to the continuous phase. The results shows that the method is more stable, converges slightly faster and yields smooth exchange rates compared with the steam tube approach. However, the computational requirements are about five times greater, so the applicability of the alternative method should be limited to processes, where the exchange rates are important. The overall balances of the exchanged properties did not change significantly using the new approach.

Keywords: CFD, coupling, discrete phase, parcel.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi, Kenneth A. Okpala

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This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques and vector error correction mechanism were adopted to explore the macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate fluctuation in Nigeria and to examine the influence of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. The exchange rate showed an unstable and volatile movement in Nigeria. Official exchange rate significantly impacted on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria and shock to previous manufacturing sector output caused 60.76% of the fluctuation in the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. Trade balance, trade openness and net international investments did not significantly determine exchange rate in Nigeria. However, own shock accounted for about 95% of the variation of exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and long-run. Among other macroeconomic variables, net international investment accounted for about 2.85% variation of the real effective exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and in the long-run. Monetary authorities should maintain stability of the exchange rates through proper management so as to encourage local production and government should formulate and implement policies that will develop other sectors of the economy as this will widen the country’s revenue base, reduce our over reliance on oil sector for our foreign exchange earnings and in turn reduce the shocks on our domestic economy.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, exchange rate determinants, manufacturing sector, official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate, real effective exchange rate.

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Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

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Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, M. G. M. Khan, Biman Prasad, Avlin Prasad

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The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the Tala/USD and Tala/AUD.

Keywords: Neural Network Forecasting Model, Autoregressive time series, Exchange rate, Tala/AUD, winters model.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Seung Yeon Son

Abstract:

In today’s rapidly changing and increasingly complex environment, organizations have relied on their members’ positive attitude toward their employers. In particular, employees’ organizational commitment (primarily, the affective component) has been recognized as an essential component of organizational functioning and success. Hence, identifying the determinants of affective commitment is one of the most important research issues. This study tested the influence of leader-member exchange (LMX) and exchange ideology on employee’s affective commitment. In addition, the interactive effect of LMX and exchange ideology was examined. Data from 198 members of the Korean military supports each of the hypotheses. Lastly, implications for research and directions for future research are discussed.

Keywords: Affective commitment, exchange ideology, leader-member exchange, commitment.

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Authors: Chen-Yin Kuo

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This paper fist examines three set of bivariate cointegrations between any two of current accounts, stock markets, and currency exchange markets in ten Asian countries. Furthermore, we examined the effect of country characters on this bivariate cointegration. Our findings suggest that for three sets of cointegration test, each sample country at least exists one cointegration. India consistently exhibited a bi-directional causal relationship between any two of three indicators. Unlike Pan et al. (2007) and Phylaktis and Ravazzolo (2005), we found that such cointegration is influenced by three characteristics: capital control; flexibility in foreign exchange rates; and the ratio of trade to GDP. These characteristics are the result of liberalization in each Asian country. This implies that liberalization policies are effective on improving the cointegration between any two of financial markets and current account for ten Asian countries.

Keywords: Current account, stock price, foreign exchange rate, country characteristics, bivariate cointegration, bi-directional causal relationships.

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Authors: Cheng-Chi Lee, Min-Shiang Hwang, Shu-Yin Hsiao

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Network exchange is now widely used. However, it still cannot avoid the problems evolving from network exchange. For example. A buyer may not receive the order even if he/she makes the payment. For another example, the seller possibly get nothing even when the merchandise is sent. Some studies about the fair exchange have proposed protocols for the design of efficiency and exploited the signature property to specify that two parties agree on the exchange. The information about purchased item and price are disclosed in this way. This paper proposes a new fair network payment protocol with off-line trusted third party. The proposed protocol can protect the buyers- purchase message from being traced. In addition, the proposed protocol can meet the proposed requirements. The most significant feature is Non-transfer property we achieved.

Keywords: E-commerce, digital signature, fair exchange, security.

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Authors: Nikolaos Sariannidis, Grigoris Giannarakis, Nikolaos Litinas, Nikos Kartalis

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This study investigates the relationship between 10 year bond value, Yen/U.S dollar exchange rate, non-farm payrolls (all employs) and crude oil to U.S. Dow Jones Sustainability Index. A GARCH model is used to test these relationships for the period January 1st 1999 to January 31st 2008 using monthly data. Results show that an increase of the 10 year bond and non farm payrolls (all employs) lead to an increase of the D.J.S.I returns. On the contrary the volatility of the Yen/U.S dollar exchange rates as well as the increase of crude oil returns has negative effects on the U.S D.J.S.I returns. This study aims at assisting investors to understand the influences certain macroeconomic indicators have on the companies- stock returns as reported by the D.J.S.I.

Keywords: Bond value, Corporate Social Responsibility, Crudeoil, D.J.S.I United States, Exchange rate, GARCH, Non-farmpayrolls.

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Authors: Mogari I. Rapoo, Diteboho Xaba

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This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.

Keywords: ARIMA, artificial neural networks models, error metrics, exchange rates.

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Authors: Wong Hock Tsen

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on real export in Malaysia. The moving standard deviation with order three (MSD(3)) is used for the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The conventional and partially asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are used in the estimations. This study finds exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real total export and some sub-categories of real total export. Moreover, this study finds that the positive or negative exchange rate volatility tends to have positive or negative impact on real export. Exchange rate volatility can be harmful to export of Malaysia.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, autoregressive distributed lag, export, Malaysia.

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Authors: Berna Ulutas

Abstract:

Single Minute Exchange of Dies (SMED) mainly focuses on recognition of internal and external activities. It is concerned particularly with transferring internal activities into external ones in as many numbers as possible, by also minimizing the internal ones. The validity of the method and procedures are verified by an application a Styrofoam manufacturing process where setup times are critical for time reduction. Significant time savings have been achieved with minimum investment. Further, the issues related with employer safety and ergonomics principles during die exchange are noted.

Keywords: Die exchange, internal-external set-up, lean manufacturing, single minute die exchange.

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Authors: Ivan Lovrinović, Gordana Kordić, Martina Nakić

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There are little subjects in macroeconomics that are so widely discussed, but at the same time controversial and without a clear solution such as the choice of exchange rate regime. National authorities need to take into consideration numerous fundamentals, trying to fulfil goals of economic growth, low and stable inflation and international stability. This paper focuses on the countries of ex- Yugoslavia and their exchange rate history as independent states. We follow the development of the regimes in 6 countries during the transition through the financial crisis of the second part of the 2000s to the prospects of their final goal: full membership in the European Union. Main question is to what extent has the exchange regime contributed to their economic success, considering other objective factors.

Keywords: European Union, exchange rate regime, ex- Yugoslavia countries

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

A dynamic development of financial market is accompanied by the emergence of new products on stock exchanges which give absolutely new possibilities of investing money. Currently, the most innovative financial instruments offered to investors are exchange traded products (ETP). They can be defined as financial instruments whose price depends on the value of the underlying instrument. Thus, they offer investors a possibility of making a profit that results from the change in value of the underlying instrument without having to buy it. Currently, the Warsaw Stock Exchange offers many types of ETPs. They are investment products with full or partial capital protection, products without capital protection as well as leverage products, issued on such underlying instruments as indices, sector indices, commodity indices, prices of energy commodities, precious metals, agricultural produce or prices of shares of domestic and foreign companies. This paper presents the mechanism of functioning of ETP available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the results of the analysis of statistical data on these financial instruments.

Keywords: Exchange traded products, financial market, investment, stock exchange.

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Authors: Joshua S. Valeta, Marc C. Verdegem

Abstract:

A study was undertaken to assess the potential of an Algal Turf Scrubber to remove nitrogen from aquaculture effluent to reduce environmental pollution. High total ammonia nitrogen concentrations were introduced to an Algal Turf Scrubber developed under varying hydraulic surface loading rates of African catfish (Clarius gariepinus) effluent in a recirculating aquaculture system. Nutrient removal rates were not affected at total suspended solids concentration of up to 0.04g TSS/l (P > 0.05). Nitrogen removal rates 0.93-0.99g TAN/m²/d were recorded at very high loading rates 3.76-3.81 g TAN/m²/d. Total ammonia removal showed ½ order kinetics between 1.6 to 2.3mg/l Total Ammonia Nitrogen concentrations. Nitrogen removal increased with its loading, which increased with hydraulic surface loading rate. Total Ammonia Nitrogen removal by Algal turf scrubber was higher than reported values for fluidized bed filters and trickling filters. The algal turf scrubber also effectively removed nitrate thereby reducing the need for water exchange.

Keywords: Algal turf, loading rate, nitrogen, organic matter, removal rate.

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Authors: Souleymane Oumtanaga, Falilu Abudul Kadiri

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Internet is without any doubt the fastest and effective mean of communication making it possible to reach a great number of people in the world. It draws its base from exchange points. Indeed exchange points are used to inter-connect various Internet suppliers and operators in order to allow them to exchange traffic and it is with these interconnections that Internet made its great strides. They thus make it possible to limit the traffic delivered via the operators of transits. This limitation allows a significant improvement of the quality of service, a reduction in the latency time just as a reduction of the cost of connection for the final subscriber. Through this article we will show how the installation of an IXP allows an improvement and a diversification of the services just as a reduction of the Internet connection costs.

Keywords: Quality of service, Exchange point, interconnection, Service providers, bandwidth, traffic, routers, routing table.

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Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, F. Allahyari

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Soil stabilization has been widely used to improve soil strength and durability or to prevent erosion and dust generation. Generally to reduce problems of clayey soils in engineering work and to stabilize these soils additional materials are used. The most common materials are lime, fly ash and cement. Using this materials, although improve soil property , but in some cases due to financial problems and the need to use special equipment are limited .One of the best methods for stabilization clayey soils is neutralization the clay particles. For this purpose we can use ion exchange materials. Ion exchange solution like CBR plus can be used for soil stabilization. One of the most important things in using CBR plus is determination the amount of this solution for various soils with different properties. In this study a laboratory experiment is conduct to evaluate the ion exchange capacity of three soils with various plasticity index (PI) to determine amount or required CBR plus solution for soil stabilization.

Keywords: CBR plus, clayey soils, ion exchange, soil stabilization

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Authors: Aleksandre Ergeshidze

Abstract:

The exchange rate is a pivotal pricing instrument that simultaneously impacts various components of the economy. Depreciation of nominal exchange rate is export promoting, which might be a desired export-led growth policy, and particularly critical to closing-down the widening current account imbalance. However, negative effects resulting from high dollarization and high share of imported intermediate inputs can outweigh positive effect. The aim of this research is to quantify impact of change in nominal exchange rate and test contractionary depreciation hypothesis on Georgian economy using structural and Bayesian vector autoregression. According to the acquired results, appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to decrease inflation, monetary policy rate, interest rate on domestic currency loans and economic growth in the medium run; however, impact on economic growth in the short run is statistically not significant.

Keywords: Bayesian vector autoregression, contractionary depreciation, dollarization, nominal exchange rate, structural vector autoregression.

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Authors: M. Chomczyńska

Abstract:

The studies concerned an effect of six variants of ion exchange substrate (nutrient carriers with a different potential impact on pH of soil solution) on vegetation of orchard grass during two different periods (42 and 84 days). In the pot experiment plants were grown on sand (model of degraded soil) and six mixtures of sand and 2% (v/v) additions of particular variants of ion exchange substrate (with pH ranged from 5.5 to 8.0). The study results showed that the addition of the substrate at pH=6.5 caused the highest increase in plant yield after shorter vegetation period whereas the addition of the substrate at pH=5.5 increased dry stem and root biomass of orchard grass after longer vegetation period. Thus, the ion exchange substrate at pH=6.5 can be recommended for restoration of exhausted soils when shorter vegetation period is planned; the ion exchange substrate at pH=5.5 can be used for the same purpose when longer periods of vegetative growth are considered.

Keywords: ion exchanger, ion exchange substrate, soilrestoration

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Authors: Namchul Do, Jihun Cho

Abstract:

Modeling product configurations needs large amounts of knowledge about technical and marketing restrictions on the product. Previous attempts to automate product configurations concentrate on representations and management of the knowledge for specific domains in fixed and isolated computing environments. Since the knowledge about product configurations is subject to continuous change and hard to express, these attempts often failed to efficiently manage and exchange the knowledge in collaborative product development. In this paper, XML Topic Map (XTM) is introduced to represent and exchange the knowledge about product configurations in collaborative product development. A product configuration model based on XTM along with its merger and inference facilities enables configuration engineers in collaborative product development to manage and exchange their knowledge efficiently. A prototype implementation is also presented to demonstrate the proposed model can be applied to engineering information systems to exchange the product configuration knowledge.

Keywords: Knowledge exchange, product configurations, XML topic map.

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Authors: Hae-Soon Ahn, Eun-Jun Yoon

Abstract:

Three-party password authenticated key exchange (3PAKE) protocols are widely deployed on lots of remote user authentication system due to its simplicity and convenience of maintaining a human-memorable password at client side to achieve secure communication within a hostile network. Recently, an improvement of 3PAKE protocol by processing a built-in data attached to other party for identity authentication to individual data was proposed by some researchers. However, this paper points out that the improved 3PAKE protocol is still vulnerable to undetectable on-line dictionary attack and off-line dictionary attack.

Keywords: Three-party key exchange, 3PAKE, Passwordauthenticated key exchange, Network security, Dictionary attack

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Authors: A. Andreasyan, C. Connors

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The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature algorithm-based X509v3 certificates are becoming more popular due to their short public and private key sizes. Moreover, these certificates can be stored in Internet of Things (IoT) devices, with limited resources, using less memory and transmitted in network security protocols, such as Internet Key Exchange (IKE), Transport Layer Security (TLS) and Secure Shell (SSH) with less bandwidth. The proposed method gives another advantage, in that it increases the performance of the above-mentioned protocols in terms of key exchange by saving one scalar multiplication operation.

Keywords: Cryptography, elliptic curve digital signature algorithm, key exchange, network security protocols.

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Authors: R. Mechgoug, A. Titaouine

Abstract:

Fuzzy systems have been successfully used for exchange rate forecasting. However, fuzzy system is very confusing and complex to be designed by an expert, as there is a large set of parameters (fuzzy knowledge base) that must be selected, it is not a simple task to select the appropriate fuzzy knowledge base for an exchange rate forecasting. The researchers often look the effect of fuzzy knowledge base on the performances of fuzzy system forecasting. This paper proposes a genetic fuzzy predictor to forecast the future value of daily US Dollar/Euro exchange rate time’s series. A range of methodologies based on a set of fuzzy predictor’s which allow the forecasting of the same time series, but with a different fuzzy partition. Each fuzzy predictor is built from two stages, where each stage is performed by a real genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rate, time series forecasting, Fuzzy System, and Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Monis Akhlaq, M Noman Jafri, Muzammil A Khan, Baber Aslam

Abstract:

The Ad Hoc on demand distance vector (AODV) routing protocol is designed for mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). AODV offers quick adaptation to dynamic link conditions; it is characterized by low memory overhead and low network utilization. The security issues related to the protocol remain challenging for the wireless network designers. Numerous schemes have been proposed for establishing secure communication between end users, these schemes identify that the secure operation of AODV is a bi tier task (routing and secure exchange of information at separate levels). Our endeavor in this paper would focus on achieving the routing and secure data exchange in a single step. This will facilitate the user nodes to perform routing, mutual authentications, generation and secure exchange of session key in one step thus ensuring confidentiality, integrity and authentication of data exchange in a more suitable way.

Keywords: AODV, key management, security, wirelessnetworks.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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Authors: C. Thassana, W. Techitdheera

Abstract:

This calculation focus on the effect of exchange interaction J and Coulomb interaction U on spin magnetic moments (ms) of MnO by using the local spin density approximation plus the Coulomb interaction (LSDA+U) method within full potential linear muffin-tin orbital (FP-LMTO). Our calculated results indicated that the spin magnetic moments correlated to J and U. The relevant results exhibited the increasing spin magnetic moments with increasing exchange interaction and Coulomb interaction. Furthermore, equations of spin magnetic moment, which h good correspondence to the experimental data 4.58μB, are defined ms = 0.11J +4.52μB and ms = 0.03U+4.52μB. So, the relation of J and U parameter is obtained, it is obviously, J = -0.249U+1.346 eV.

Keywords: exchange interaction J, the Coulomb interaction U, spin magnetic moment, LSDA+U, MnO.

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Bordbar, Timo Hyppänen

Abstract:

The radiative exchange method is introduced as a numerical method for the simulation of radiative heat transfer in an absorbing, emitting and isotropically scattering media. In this method, the integro-differential radiative balance equation is solved by using a new introduced concept for the exchange factor. Even though the radiative source term is calculated in a mesh structure that is coarser than the structure used in computational fluid dynamics, calculating the exchange factor between different coarse elements by using differential integration elements makes the result of the method close to that of integro-differential radiative equation. A set of equations for calculating exchange factors in two and threedimensional Cartesian coordinate system is presented, and the method is used in the simulation of radiative heat transfer in twodimensional rectangular case and a three-dimensional simple cube. The result of using this method in simulating different cases is verified by comparing them with those of using other numerical radiative models.

Keywords: Exchange factor, Numerical simulation, Thermal radiation.

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Authors: Aye Sandar Win

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates design and construction of microcontroller-based telephone exchange system and the aims of this paper is to study telecommunication, connection with PIC16F877A and DTMF MT8870D. In microcontroller system, PIC 16F877 microcontroller is used to control the call processing. Dial tone, busy tone and ring tone are provided during call progress. Instead of using ready made tone generator IC, oscillator based tone generator is used. The results of this telephone exchange system are perfect for homes and small businesses needing the extensions. It requires the phone operation control system, the analog interface circuit and the switching circuit. This exchange design will contain eight channels. It is the best low cost, good quality telephone exchange for today-s telecommunication needs. It offers the features available in much more expensive PBX units without using high-priced phones. It is for long distance telephone services.

Keywords: Control software, DTMF receiver and decoder, hooksensing, microcontroller system, power supply, ring generator andoscillator based tone generator.

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