Search results for: Sowing term
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 978

Search results for: Sowing term

858 Screening of Strategic Management Criterions in Hospitals Using Delphi-Fuzzy Method

Authors: Helia Moayedi, Mahdi Moaidi

Abstract:

Nowadays, the managing and planning of hospitals is facing many problems. Failure to recognize the main criteria for strategic management to ensure long-term hospital performance can lead to many health problems. To achieve this goal, a qualitative-quantitate method titled Delphi-Fuzzy has been applied. This strategy makes it possible for experts to screen among the most important criteria in strategic management. To conduct this operation, a statistical society consisting of 20 experts in Ahwaz hospitals has been questioned. The final model confirms the key criterions after three stages of Delphi. This model provides the possibility to focus on the basic criteria and can determine the organization’s main orientation.

Keywords: Delphi-Fuzzy Method, hospital management, long-term planning, qualitative-quantitate method, screening of strategic criteria, strategic planning.

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857 Performance Evaluation of an Ontology-Based Arabic Sentiment Analysis

Authors: Salima Behdenna, Fatiha Barigou, Ghalem Belalem

Abstract:

Due to the quick increase in the volume of Arabic opinions posted on various social media, Arabic sentiment analysis has become one of the most important areas of research. Compared to English, there is very little works on Arabic sentiment analysis, in particular aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA). In ABSA, aspect extraction is the most important task. In this paper, we propose a semantic ABSA approach for standard Arabic reviews to extract explicit aspect terms and identify the polarity of the extracted aspects. The proposed approach was evaluated using HAAD datasets. Experiments showed that the proposed approach achieved a good level of performance compared with baseline results. The F-measure was improved by 19% for the aspect term extraction tasks and 55% aspect term polarity task.

Keywords: Sentiment analysis, opinion mining, Arabic, aspect level, opinion, polarity.

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856 Assessment of the Environmental Destructive Effects of Building Dams

Authors: Mohammad Reza Pirestani, Mehdi Shafaghati, Amir Ahmad Dehghani

Abstract:

From the beginning of creation, human being has ever fought against the ecosystem by changes has made in environment. The most environmental changes on the nature have been done after starting the concentrated life in the same region. Dams are one of the most important buildings in water resources and transferring. These buildings have been made from old times without access to hydrological, hydraulically, hydro mechanical information. Dams have positive and negative effects on environment. Constructing a dam relatively causes equal ecological consequences. According to different criteria, environmental effects of dams can lead short term and long term damages. These effects may influence on the situation and treatment of meteorology, biology, culture, ancient works, etc and severely causes to change and complicate it. So considering importance of positive effects of dam construction, it is necessary to minimize negative environmental effects of dams to achieve a stable development. In this article the considered effects and their solutions in influencing on assessment of destructive environmental effects of dams construction have been surveyed and presented.

Keywords: Dam, Environment, Water Resources, Assessment

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855 Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Multiple Gaussian Process Models

Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi

Abstract:

This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric load forecasting.

Keywords: Direct method, electric load forecasting, Gaussian process model, genetic algorithm, separable least-squares method.

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854 Evaluating Accuracy of Foetal Weight Estimation by Clinicians in Christian Medical College Hospital, India and Its Correlation to Actual Birth Weight: A Clinical Audit

Authors: Aarati Susan Mathew, Radhika Narendra Patel, Jiji Mathew

Abstract:

A retrospective study conducted at Christian Medical College (CMC) Teaching Hospital, Vellore, India on 14th August 2014 to assess the accuracy of clinically estimated foetal weight upon labour admission. Estimating foetal weight is a crucial factor in assessing maternal and foetal complications during and after labour. Medical notes of ninety-eight postnatal women who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were studied to evaluate the correlation between their recorded Estimated Foetal Weight (EFW) on admission and actual birth weight (ABW) of the newborn after delivery. Data concerning maternal and foetal demographics was also noted. Accuracy was determined by absolute percentage error and proportion of estimates within 10% of ABW. Actual birth weights ranged from 950-4080g. A strong positive correlation between EFW and ABW (r=0.904) was noted. Term deliveries (≥40 weeks) in the normal weight range (2500-4000g) had a 59.5% estimation accuracy (n=74) compared to pre-term (<40 weeks) with an estimation accuracy of 0% (n=2). Out of the term deliveries, macrosomic babies (>4000g) were underestimated by 25% (n=3) and low birthweight (LBW) babies were overestimated by 12.7% (n=9). Registrars who estimated foetal weight were accurate in babies within normal weight ranges. However, there needs to be an improvement in predicting weight of macrosomic and LBW foetuses. We have suggested the use of an amended version of the Johnson’s formula for the Indian population for improvement and a need to re-audit once implemented.

Keywords: Clinical palpation, estimated foetal weight, pregnancy, India, Johnson’s formula.

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853 Volterra Filter for Color Image Segmentation

Authors: M. B. Meenavathi, K. Rajesh

Abstract:

Color image segmentation plays an important role in computer vision and image processing areas. In this paper, the features of Volterra filter are utilized for color image segmentation. The discrete Volterra filter exhibits both linear and nonlinear characteristics. The linear part smoothes the image features in uniform gray zones and is used for getting a gross representation of objects of interest. The nonlinear term compensates for the blurring due to the linear term and preserves the edges which are mainly used to distinguish the various objects. The truncated quadratic Volterra filters are mainly used for edge preserving along with Gaussian noise cancellation. In our approach, the segmentation is based on K-means clustering algorithm in HSI space. Both the hue and the intensity components are fully utilized. For hue clustering, the special cyclic property of the hue component is taken into consideration. The experimental results show that the proposed technique segments the color image while preserving significant features and removing noise effects.

Keywords: Color image segmentation, HSI space, K–means clustering, Volterra filter.

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852 Consolidating Service Engineering Ontologies Building Service Ontology from SOA Modeling Language (SoaML)

Authors: Purnomo Yustianto, Robin Doss, Suhardi, Novianto Budi Kurniawan

Abstract:

As a term for characterizing a process of devising a service system, the term ‘service engineering’ is still regarded as an ‘open’ research challenge due to unspecified details and conflicting perspectives. This paper presents consolidated service engineering ontologies in collecting, specifying and defining relationship between components pertinent within the context of service engineering. The ontologies are built by way of literature surveys from the collected conceptual works by collating various concepts into an integrated ontology. Two ontologies are produced: general service ontology and software service ontology. The software-service ontology is drawn from the informatics domain, while the generalized ontology of a service system is built from both a business management and the information system perspective. The produced ontologies are verified by exercising conceptual operationalizations of the ontologies in adopting several service orientation features and service system patterns. The proposed ontologies are demonstrated to be sufficient to serve as a basis for a service engineering framework.

Keywords: Engineering, ontology, service, SoaML.

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851 A Model for Business Network Governance: Case Study in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Authors: Emil Crişan, Matthias Klumpp

Abstract:

This paper discusses the theory behind the existence of an idealistic model for business network governance and uses a clarifying case-study, containing governance structures and processes within a business network framework. The case study from a German pharmaceutical industry company complements existing literature by providing a comprehensive explanation of the relations between supply chains and business networks, and also between supply chain management and business network governance. Supply chains and supply chain management are only one side of the interorganizational relationships and ensure short-term performance, while real-world governance structures are needed for ensuring the long-term existence of a supply chain. Within this context, a comprehensive model for business governance is presented. An interesting finding from the case study is that multiple business network governance systems co-exist within the evaluated supply chain.

Keywords: Business network, pharmaceutical industry, supply chain governance, supply chain management.

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850 Impact of Moderating Role of e-Administration on Training, Perfromance Appraisal and Organizational Performance

Authors: Ejaz Ali, Muhammad Younas, Tahir Saeed

Abstract:

In this age of information technology, organizations are revisiting their approach in great deal. E-administration is the most popular area to proceed with. Organizations in order to excel over their competitors are spending a substantial chunk of its resources on E-Administration as it is the most effective, transparent and efficient way to achieve their short term as well as long term organizational goals. E-administration being a tool of ICT plays a significant role towards effective management of HR practices resulting into optimal performance of an organization. The present research was carried out to analyze the impact of moderating role of e-administration in the relationships training and performance appraisal aligned with perceived organizational performance. The study is based on RBV and AMO theories, advocating that use of latest technology in execution of human resource (HR) functions enables an organization to achieve and sustain competitive advantage which leads to optimal firm performance.

Keywords: Human resource management, HR function, e-administration, performance appraisal, training, organizational performance.

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849 Regret, Choice, and Outcome

Authors: Olimpia Matarazzo, Lucia Abbamonte

Abstract:

In two studies we challenged the well consolidated position in regret literature according to which the necessary condition for the emergence of regret is a bad outcome ensuing from free decisions. Without free choice, and, consequently, personal responsibility, other emotions, such as disappointment, but not regret, are supposed to be elicited. In our opinion, a main source of regret is being obliged by circumstance out of our control to chose an undesired option. We tested the hypothesis that regret resulting from a forced choice is more intense than regret derived from a free choice and that the outcome affects the latter, not the former. Besides, we investigated whether two other variables – the perception of the level of freedom of the choice and the choice justifiability – mediated the relationships between choice and regret, as well as the other four emotions we examined: satisfaction, anger toward oneself, disappointment, anger towards circumstances. The two studies were based on the scenario methodology and implied a 2 x 2 (choice x outcome) between design. In the first study the foreseen short-term effects of the choice were assessed; in the second study the experienced long-term effects of the choice were assessed. In each study 160 students of the Second University of Naples participated. Results largely corroborated our hypotheses. They were discussed in the light of the main theories on regret and decision making.

Keywords: Choice, outcome, regret.

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848 Topological Sensitivity Analysis for Reconstruction of the Inverse Source Problem from Boundary Measurement

Authors: Maatoug Hassine, Mourad Hrizi

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a geometric inverse source problem for the heat equation with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary data. We will reconstruct the exact form of the unknown source term from additional boundary conditions. Our motivation is to detect the location, the size and the shape of source support. We present a one-shot algorithm based on the Kohn-Vogelius formulation and the topological gradient method. The geometric inverse source problem is formulated as a topology optimization one. A topological sensitivity analysis is derived from a source function. Then, we present a non-iterative numerical method for the geometric reconstruction of the source term with unknown support using a level curve of the topological gradient. Finally, we give several examples to show the viability of our presented method.

Keywords: Geometric inverse source problem, heat equation, topological sensitivity, topological optimization, Kohn-Vogelius formulation.

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847 Effects of Reclaimed Agro-Industrial Wastewater for Long-Term Irrigation of Herbaceous Crops on Soil Chemical Properties

Authors: E. Tarantino, G. Disciglio, G. Gatta, L. Frabboni, A. Libutti, A. Tarantino

Abstract:

Worldwide, about two-thirds of industrial and domestic wastewater effluent is discharged without treatment, which can cause contamination and eutrophication of the water. In particular, for Mediterranean countries, irrigation with treated wastewater would mitigate the water stress and support the agricultural sector. Changing global weather patterns will make the situation worse, due to increased susceptibility to drought, which can cause major environmental, social, and economic problems. The study was carried out in open field in an intensive agricultural area of the Apulian region in Southern Italy where freshwater resources are often scarce. As well as providing a water resource, irrigation with treated wastewater represents a significant source of nutrients for soil–plant systems. However, the use of wastewater might have further effects on soil. This study thus investigated the long-term impact of irrigation with reclaimed agro-industrial wastewater on the chemical characteristics of the soil. Two crops (processing tomato and broccoli) were cultivated in succession in Stornarella (Foggia) over four years from 2012 to 2016 using two types of irrigation water: groundwater and tertiary treated agro-industrial wastewater that had undergone an activated sludge process, sedimentation filtration, and UV radiation. Chemical analyses were performed on the irrigation waters and soil samples. The treated wastewater was characterised by high levels of several chemical parameters including TSS, EC, COD, BOD5, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NH4-N, PO4-P, K+, SAR and CaCO3, as compared with the groundwater. However, despite these higher levels, the mean content of several chemical parameters in the soil did not show relevant differences between the irrigation treatments, in terms of the chemical features of the soil.

Keywords: Agro-industrial wastewater, broccoli, long-term re-use, tomato.

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846 Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Co-integrated Panel Analysis

Authors: S. Noor, M. W. Siddiqi

Abstract:

This study examines causal link between energy use and economic growth for five South Asian countries over period 1971-2006. Panel cointegration, ECM and FMOLS are applied for short and long run estimates. In short run unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption is found, but not vice versa. In long run one percent increase in per capita energy consumption tend to decrease 0.13 percent per capita GDP. i.e. Energy use discourage economic growth. This short and long run relationship indicate energy shortage crisis in South Asia due to increased energy use coupled with insufficient energy supply. Beside this long run estimated coefficient of error term suggest that short term adjustment to equilibrium are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium. Moreover, per capita energy consumption is responsive to adjustment back to equilibrium and it takes 59 years approximately. It specifies long run feedback between both variables.

Keywords: Energy consumption, Income, Panel co-integration, Causality.

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845 Globally Convergent Edge-preserving Reconstruction with Contour-line Smoothing

Authors: Marc C. Robini, Pierre-Jean Viverge, Yuemin Zhu, Jianhua Luo

Abstract:

The standard approach to image reconstruction is to stabilize the problem by including an edge-preserving roughness penalty in addition to faithfulness to the data. However, this methodology produces noisy object boundaries and creates a staircase effect. The existing attempts to favor the formation of smooth contour lines take the edge field explicitly into account; they either are computationally expensive or produce disappointing results. In this paper, we propose to incorporate the smoothness of the edge field in an implicit way by means of an additional penalty term defined in the wavelet domain. We also derive an efficient half-quadratic algorithm to solve the resulting optimization problem, including the case when the data fidelity term is non-quadratic and the cost function is nonconvex. Numerical experiments show that our technique preserves edge sharpness while smoothing contour lines; it produces visually pleasing reconstructions which are quantitatively better than those obtained without wavelet-domain constraints.

Keywords:

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844 Neural Network Ensemble-based Solar Power Generation Short-Term Forecasting

Authors: A. Chaouachi, R.M. Kamel, R. Ichikawa, H. Hayashi, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This paper presents the applicability of artificial neural networks for 24 hour ahead solar power generation forecasting of a 20 kW photovoltaic system, the developed forecasting is suitable for a reliable Microgrid energy management. In total four neural networks were proposed, namely: multi-layred perceptron, radial basis function, recurrent and a neural network ensemble consisting in ensemble of bagged networks. Forecasting reliability of the proposed neural networks was carried out in terms forecasting error performance basing on statistical and graphical methods. The experimental results showed that all the proposed networks achieved an acceptable forecasting accuracy. In term of comparison the neural network ensemble gives the highest precision forecasting comparing to the conventional networks. In fact, each network of the ensemble over-fits to some extent and leads to a diversity which enhances the noise tolerance and the forecasting generalization performance comparing to the conventional networks.

Keywords: Neural network ensemble, Solar power generation, 24 hour forecasting, Comparative study

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843 The Creative Unfolding of “Reduced Descriptive Structures” in Musical Cognition: Technical and Theoretical Insights Based on the OpenMusic and PWGL Long-Term Feedback

Authors: Jacopo Baboni Schilingi

Abstract:

We here describe the theoretical and philosophical understanding of a long term use and development of algorithmic computer-based tools applied to music composition. The findings of our research lead us to interrogate some specific processes and systems of communication engaged in the discovery of specific cultural artworks: artistic creation in the sono-musical domain. Our hypothesis is that the patterns of auditory learning cannot be only understood in terms of social transmission but would gain to be questioned in the way they rely on various ranges of acoustic stimuli modes of consciousness and how the different types of memories engaged in the percept-action expressive systems of our cultural communities also relies on these shadowy conscious entities we named “Reduced Descriptive Structures”.

Keywords: Algorithmic sonic computation, corrected and self-correcting learning patterns in acoustic perception, morphological derivations in sensorial patterns, social unconscious modes of communication.

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842 Effect of Greywater Irrigation on Air-Water Interfacial area in Porous Medium

Authors: A. H. M. Faisal Anwar

Abstract:

In this study, the effect of greywater irrigation on airwater interfacial area is investigated. Several soil column experiments were conducted for different greywater irrigation to develop the pressure-saturation curves. Surface tension was measured for different greywater concentration and fitted for Gibbs adsorption equation. Pressure-saturation curves show that the reduction of capillary rise stops when it reaches its critical micelle concentration (CMC). A simple theory is derived from pressure-saturation curves for calculating air-water interfacial area in porous medium during greywater irrigation by introducing a term 'hydraulic radius' for the pores. This term diminishes any effect of pore shapes on the air-water interfacial area. The air-water interfacial area was calculated using the pressure-saturation curves and found that it decreases with increasing moisture content. But no significant effect was observed on air-water interfacial area for different greywater irrigation. A maximum of 10% variation in interfacial area was observed at the residual saturation zone.

Keywords: Greywater, Irrigation, Interfacial area, Surface tension, Porous medium.

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841 Improved Neutron Leakage Treatment on Nodal Expansion Method for PWR Reactors

Authors: Antonio Carlos Marques Alvim, Fernando Carvalho da Silva, Aquilino Senra Martinez

Abstract:

For a quick and accurate calculation of spatial neutron distribution in nuclear power reactors 3D nodal codes are usually used aiming at solving the neutron diffusion equation for a given reactor core geometry and material composition. These codes use a second order polynomial to represent the transverse leakage term. In this work, a nodal method based on the well known nodal expansion method (NEM), developed at COPPE, making use of this polynomial expansion was modified to treat the transverse leakage term for the external surfaces of peripheral reflector nodes. The proposed method was implemented into a computational system which, besides solving the diffusion equation, also solves the burnup equations governing the gradual changes in material compositions of the core due to fuel depletion. Results confirm the effectiveness of this modified treatment of peripheral nodes for practical purposes in PWR reactors.

Keywords: Transverse leakage, nodal expansion method, power density, PWR reactors

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840 Short Term Tests on Performance Evaluation of Water-washed and Dry-washed Biodiesel from Used Cooking Oil

Authors: Shumani Ramuhaheli, Christopher C. Enweremadu, Hilary L. Rutto

Abstract:

In this study, biodiesel from used cooking oil was produced as purified by washing with water (water wash) and amberlite (dry wash). The work presents the results of short term tests on performance characteristics of diesel engine using both biodiesel-fuel samples. In this investigation, the water wash biodiesel and dry wash biodiesel and diesel were compared for performance using a four-cylinder diesel engine. The torque, brake power, specific fuel consumption and brake thermal efficiency were analyzed. The tests showed that in all cases, dry wash biodiesel performed marginally poorer compared to water wash biodiesel. Except for brake thermal efficiency, diesel fuel had better engine performance characteristics compared to the biodiesel-fuel samples. According to these results, dry washing of biodiesel has a marginal effect on engine performance.

Keywords: Biodiesel, engine performance, used cooking oil, water wash, dry wash.

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839 The Influence of Forest Management Histories on Dead Wood and Habitat Trees in the Old Growth Forest in Northern Iran

Authors: Kiomars Sefidi

Abstract:

Dead wood and habitat tree such as fallen logs, snags, stumps and cracks and loos bark etc. are regarded as an important ecological component of forests on which many forest dwelling species depend on presence of them within forest ecosystems. Meanwhile its relation to management history in Caspian forest has gone unreported. The aim of research was to compare the amounts of dead wood and habitat trees in the forests with historically different intensities of management, including: forests with the long term implication of management (PS), the short term implication of management (NS) which were compared with semi virgin forest (GS). The number of 405 individual dead and habitat trees were recorded and measured at 109 sampling locations. ANOVA revealed volume of dead tree in the form and decay classes significantly differ within sites and dead volume in the semi virgin forest significantly higher than managed sites. Comparing the amount of dead and habitat tree in three sites showed that, dead tree volume related with management history and significantly differ in three study sites. Meanwhile, frequency of habitat trees was significantly different within sites. The highest amount of habitat trees including cavities, cracks and loose bark and fork split trees was recorded in virgin site and lowest recorded in the sites with the long term implication of management. It can be concluded that forest management cause reduction of the amount of dead and habitat tree specially in a large size, thus managing this forest according to ecological sustainable principles require a commitment to maintaining stand structure that allow, continued generation of dead trees in a full range of size.

Keywords: Cracks trees, forest biodiversity, fork split trees, nature conservation, sustainable management.

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838 An Evaluation Method of Accelerated Storage Life Test for Typical Mechanical and Electronic Products

Authors: Jinyong Yao, Hongzhi Li, Chao Du, Jiao Li

Abstract:

Reliability of long-term storage products is related to the availability of the whole system, and the evaluation of storage life is of great necessity. These products are usually highly reliable and little failure information can be collected. In this paper, an analytical method based on data from accelerated storage life test is proposed to evaluate the reliability index of the long-term storage products. Firstly, singularities are eliminated by data normalization and residual analysis. Secondly, with the preprocessed data, the degradation path model is built to obtain the pseudo life values. Then by life distribution hypothesis, we can get the estimator of parameters in high stress levels and verify failure mechanism consistency. Finally, the life distribution under the normal stress level is extrapolated via the acceleration model and evaluation of the actual average life is available. An application example with the camera stabilization device is provided to illustrate the methodology we proposed.

Keywords: Accelerated storage life test, failure mechanism consistency, life distribution, reliability.

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837 Gel-Based Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation (GACI) in the Knee: Multicentric Short Term Study

Authors: Shaival Dalal, Nilesh Shah, Dinshaw Pardiwala, David Rajan, Satyen Sanghavi, Charul Bhanji

Abstract:

Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation (ACI) is used worldwide since 1998 to treat cartilage defect. GEL based ACI is a new tissue-engineering technique to treat full thickness cartilage defect with fibrin and thrombin as scaffold for chondrocytes. Purpose of this study is to see safety and efficacy of gel based ACI for knee cartilage defect in multiple centres with different surgeons. Gel-based Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation (GACI) has shown effectiveness in treating isolated cartilage defect of knee joint. Long term results are still needed to be studied. This study was followed-up up to two years and showed benefit to patients. All enrolled patients with a mean age of 28.5 years had an average defect size of3 square centimeters, and were grade IV as per ICRS grading. All patients were followed up several times and at several intervals at 6th week, 8th week, 11th week, 17th week, 29th week, 57th week after surgery. The outcomes were measured based on the IKDC (subjective and objective) and MOCART scores.

Keywords: Knee, chondrocyte, autologous chondrocyte implantation, gel.

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836 A Study of Fatty Acid Production in the Batch Reactor via the Carbohydrate Fermentation by C. butyricum

Authors: H. Azan T., R. W. Lovitt, Nur K. T., N. Azwa. M. B.

Abstract:

Carbohydrate can be used as a substrate that can be consumed by C. butyricum and converted to useful chemicals such as acetic and butyric acid. Influence of concentration and types of carbohydrate to cell growth, carbohydrate consumed, productivity and carbon balance have been explored. Batch reactor was selected in this study to avoid contamination due to simpler operation system. Glucose was preferred as first types of carbohydrate to be tested. Six concentrations were studied from 0 to 28g/L. Eventually, 15g/L has shown the best concentration for glucose in term of growth rate (2.63h-1) and carbon balance (99.76% recovery). Comparison for types of carbohydrate was also conducted. 15g/L of xylose (monosaccharide) and starch (complex carbohydrate) was tested.  In term of growth rate and productivity, glucose showed the best carbohydrates. Results for this study showed that glucose and xylose produced more than 80% of acetic acid and less than 20% of butyric acid. Meanwhile, 63.1% of acetic acid and 36.9% of butyric acid were produced from starch. 

Keywords: C. butyricum, glucose, starch, xylose, carbohydrate.

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835 Clustering Based Formulation for Short Term Load Forecasting

Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha

Abstract:

A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.

Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.

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834 Design of Extremum Seeking Control with PD Accelerator and its Application to Monod and Williams-Otto Models

Authors: Hitoshi Takata, Tomohiro Hachino, Masaki Horai, Kazuo Komatsu

Abstract:

In this paper, we are concerned with the design and its simulation studies of a modified extremum seeking control for nonlinear systems. A standard extremum seeking control has a simple structure, but it takes a long time to reach an optimal operating point. We consider a modification of the standard extremum seeking control which is aimed to reach the optimal operating point more speedily than the standard one. In the modification, PD acceleration term is added before an integrator making a principal control, so that it enables the objects to be regulated to the optimal point smoothly. This proposed method is applied to Monod and Williams-Otto models to investigate its effectiveness. Numerical simulation results show that this modified method can improve the time response to the optimal operating point more speedily than the standard one.

Keywords: Extremum seeking control, Monod model, Williams- Otto model, PD acceleration term, Optimal operating point.

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833 Analysis of Causality between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Mexico 1971-2011

Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to test the causality relationship between economic activity, trade openness and carbon dioxide emissions in Mexico (1971-2011). The results achieved in this research show that there are three long-run relationships between production, trade openness, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The EKC hypothesis was not verified in this research. Indeed, it was found evidence of a short-term unidirectional causality from GDP and GDP squared to carbon dioxide emissions, from GDP, GDP squared and TO to EC, and bidirectional causality between TO and GDP. Finally, it was found evidence of long-term unidirectional causality from all variables to carbon emissions. These results suggest that a reduction in energy consumption, economic activity, or an increase in trade openness would reduce pollution.

Keywords: Energy consumption, environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth, causality, co-integration.

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832 Planning of Road Infrastructure Financing: Computational Finance Viewpoint

Authors: Ornst J., Voracek J., Allouache A., Allouache D.

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Lack of resources for road infrastructure financing is a problem that currently affects not only eastern European economies but also many other countries especially in relation to the impact of global financial crisis. In this context, we are talking about the socalled short-investment problem as a result of long-term lack of investment resources. Based on an analysis of road infrastructure financing in the Czech Republic this article points out at weaknesses of current system and proposes a long-term planning methodology supported by system approach. Within this methodology and using created system dynamic model the article predicts the development of short-investment problem in the Country and in reaction on the downward trend of certain sources the article presents various scenarios resulting from the change of the structure of financial sources. In the discussion the article focuses more closely on the possibility of introduction of tax on vehicles instead of taxes with declining revenue streams and estimates its approximate price in relation to reaching various solutions of short-investment in time.

Keywords: Road financing, road infrastructure development, system dynamics

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831 Long-Term Treatment of Puerariae Radix Extract Ameliorated Hyperparathyroidism Induced by Ovariectomy in Mature Female Rats

Authors: Xiao-Li Dong, Quan-Gui Gao, Sa-Sa Gu, Hao-Tian Feng, Man-Sau Wong, Liya Denney

Abstract:

Postmenopausal osteoporosis is a disorder characterized by the progressive bone loss induced by estrogen deficiency in postmenopausal women. This imbalance affects calcium–phosphate metabolism and results in secondary hyperparathyroidism. Purariae Radix (PR), the root of P. lobata (Wild.) Ohwi, is one of the earliest medicinal herbs employed in ancient China. PR contains a high quantity of isoflavones and their glycosides, which are regarded as phytoestrogen. Few investigations of PR are related to its osteoprotective effects. The present study is designed to administer PR water extract to ovariectomized (OVX) female rats, for the investigation of its possibly protective actions on bone and to delineate the potential mechanisms involved. Our results demonstrated that long-term treatment of PR could not significantly improve bone properties, whereas it greatly ameliorated the condition of secondary hyperparathyroidism induced by ovariectomy in those animals. PR might be useful as alternative regimen for protecting against postmenopausal bone loss.

Keywords: Hyperparathyroidism, Ovariectomy, Postmenopausal Osteoporosis, Purariae Radix

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830 Long Term Stability of an Experimental Insulated-Model Salinity-Gradient Solar Pond

Authors: N. W. K. Jayatissa, R. Attalage, Prabath Hewageegana, P. A. A. Perera, M. A. Punyasena

Abstract:

Per capita energy usage in any country is exponentially increasing with their development. As a result, the country’s dependence on the fossil fuels for energy generation is also increasing tremendously creating economic and environmental concerns. Tropical countries receive considerable amount of solar radiation throughout the year, use of solar energy with different energy storage and conversion methodologies is a viable solution to minimize the ever increasing demand for the depleting fossil fuels. Salinity gradient solar pond is one such solar energy application. This paper reports the characteristics and performance of a thermally insulated, experimental salinity-gradient solar pond, built at the premises of the University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. Particular stress is given to the behavior of the evolution of the three layer structure exist at the stable state of a salinity gradient solar pond over a long period of time, under different environmental conditions. The operational procedures required to maintain the long term thermal stability are also reported in this article.

Keywords: Salt-gradient, solar pond, solar radiation, renewable energy.

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829 IRIS: An Interactive Video Game for Children with Long-Term Illness in Hospitals

Authors: Ganetsou Evanthia, Koutsikos Emmanouil, Austin Anna Maria

Abstract:

Information technology has long served the needs of individuals for learning and entertainment, but much less for children in sickness. The aim of the proposed online video game is to provide immersive learning opportunities as well as essential social and emotional scenarios for hospital-bound children with long-term illness. Online self-paced courses on chosen school subjects, including specialized software and multisensory assessments, aim at enhancing children’s academic achievement and sense of inclusion, while doctor minigames familiarize and educate young patients on their medical conditions. Online ethical dilemmas will offer children opportunities to contemplate on the importance of medical procedures and following assigned medication, often challenging for young patients; they will therefore reflect on their condition, re-evaluate their perceptions about hospitalization, and assume greater personal responsibility for their progress. Children’s emotional and psychosocial needs are addressed by engaging in social conventions, such as interactive, daily, collaborative mini games with other hospitalized peers, like virtual competitive sports games, weekly group psychodrama sessions, and online birthday parties or sleepovers. Social bonding is also fostered by having a virtual pet to interact with and take care of, as well as a virtual nurse to discuss and reflect on the mood of the day, engage in constructive dialogue and perspective-taking, and offer reminders. Access to the platform will be available throughout the day depending on the patient’s health status. The program is designed to minimize escapism and feelings of exclusion and can flexibly be adapted to offer post-treatment and a support online system at home.

Keywords: Hospitalized children, interactive games, long-term illness, cognitive enhancement, socioemotional development.

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