Search results for: Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Authors: Jihyung Kim, Taejin Kim, Sungho Park, Jun-Dong Cho

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In this paper, we address the problem of reducing the switching activity (SA) in on-chip buses through the use of a bus binding technique in high-level synthesis. While many binding techniques to reduce the SA exist, we present yet another technique for further reducing the switching activity. Our proposed method combines bus binding and data sequence reordering to explore a wider solution space. The problem is formulated as a multiple traveling salesman problem and solved using simulated annealing technique. The experimental results revealed that a binding solution obtained with the proposed method reduces 5.6-27.2% (18.0% on average) and 2.6-12.7% (6.8% on average) of the switching activity when compared with conventional binding-only and hybrid binding-encoding methods, respectively.

Keywords: low power, bus binding, switching activity, multiple traveling salesman problem, data sequence reordering

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Authors: Shubhajit Roy Chowdhury, Aritra Banerjee, Aniruddha Roy, Hiranmay Saha

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The paper proposes the novel design of a 3T XOR gate combining complementary CMOS with pass transistor logic. The design has been compared with earlier proposed 4T and 6T XOR gates and a significant improvement in silicon area and power-delay product has been obtained. An eight transistor full adder has been designed using the proposed three-transistor XOR gate and its performance has been investigated using 0.15um and 0.35um technologies. Compared to the earlier designed 10 transistor full adder, the proposed adder shows a significant improvement in silicon area and power delay product. The whole simulation has been carried out using HSPICE.

Keywords: XOR gate, full adder, improvement in speed, area minimization, transistor count minimization.

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Authors: K. Kalaiselvan, A. Elango

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To achieve reliable welds with minimum distortion for the fabrication of components in aerospace industry laser beam welding is attempted. Laser welding can provide a significant benefit for the welding of Titanium and Aluminium thin sheet alloys of its precision and rapid processing capability. For laser welding, pulse shape, energy, duration, repetition rate and peak power are the most important parameters that influence directly the quality of welds. In this experimental work for joining 1mm thick TI6AL4V and AA2024 alloy and JK600 Nd:YAG pulsed laser units used. The distortions at different welding power and speed of titanium and aluminium thin sheet alloys are investigated. Test results reveal that increase in welding speed increases distortion in weldment

Keywords: Laser Beam Welding, Titanium, Aluminium alloy sheets and distortion.

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Authors: Labar Hocine, Rekik Badri, Bounaya Kamel, Kelaiaia Mounia Samira

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Diagnostic goal of transformers in service is to detect the winding or the core in fault. Transformers are valuable equipment which makes a major contribution to the supply security of a power system. Consequently, it is of great importance to minimize the frequency and duration of unwanted outages of power transformers. So, Frequency Response Analysis (FRA) is found to be a useful tool for reliable detection of incipient mechanical fault in a transformer, by finding winding or core defects. The authors propose as first part of this article, the coupled circuits method, because, it gives most possible exhaustive modelling of transformers. And as second part of this work, the application of FRA in low frequency in order to improve and simplify the response reading. This study can be useful as a base data for the other transformers of the same categories intended for distribution grid.

Keywords: Diagnostic, Coupled Circuit Method, FRA, Transformer Faults

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Authors: James Kuria, John Kihiu

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A mathematical model for determining the overall efficiency of a multistage tractor gearbox including all gear, lubricant, surface finish related parameters and operating conditions is presented. Sliding friction, rolling friction and windage losses were considered as the main sources of power loss in the gearing system. A computer code in FORTRAN was developed to simulate the model. Sliding friction contributes about 98% of the total power loss for gear trains operating at relatively low speeds (less than 2000 rpm input speed). Rolling frictional losses decrease with increased load while windage losses are only significant for gears running at very high speeds (greater than 3000 rpm). The results also showed that the overall efficiency varies over the path of contact of the gear meshes ranging between 94% to 99.5%.

Keywords: Efficiency, multistage gear train, rolling friction, slidingfriction, windage losses.

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Authors: Pablo Ampuero, Claudia Labarca

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The current research paper assesses how the narrative of Chilean businesspeople about China shapes a new Orientalism Analyses on the role of non-state actors in foreign policy that have hitherto theorized about Orientalism as a narrative of hegemonic power. Hence, it has been instrumental to the efforts of imperialist powers to justify their mission civilisatrice. However, such conceptualization can seldom explain new complexities of international interactions at the height of globalization. Hence, we assessed the case of Chile, a small Latin American country, and its relationship with China, its largest trading partner. Through a discourse analysis of interviews with Chilean businesspeople engaged in the Chinese market, we could determine that Chile is building an Orientalist image of China. This new business Orientalism reinforces a relation of alterity based on commercial opportunities, traditional values, and natural dispositions. Hence, the perception of the Chinese Other amongst Chilean business people frames a new set of representations as part of the essentially commercial nature of current bilateral relations. It differs from previous frames, such as the racial bias frame of the early 20^th century, or the anti-communist frame in reaction to Mao’s leadership. As in every narrative of alterity, there is not only a construction of the Other but also a definition of the Self. Consequently, this analysis constitutes a relevant case of the role of non-state actors in asymmetrical bilateral relations, where the non-state actors of the minor power build and act upon an Orientalist frame, which is not representative of its national status in the relation. This study emerges as a contribution on the relation amongst non-state actors in asymmetrical relations, where the smaller power’s business class acts on a negative prejudice of its interactions with its counterpart. The research builds upon the constructivist approach to international relations, linking the idea of Nation Branding with Orientalism in the case of Chile-China relations.

Keywords: New business Orientalism, small power, framing, Chile-China relations.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

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In healthy humans, the cortical brain rhythm shows specific mu (~6-14 Hz) and beta (~18-24 Hz) band patterns in the cases of both real and imaginary motor movements. As cerebellar ataxia is associated with impairment of precise motor movement control as well as motor imagery, ataxia is an ideal model system in which to study the role of the cerebellocortical circuit in rhythm control. We hypothesize that the EEG characteristics of ataxic patients differ from those of controls during the performance of a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) task. Ataxia and control subjects showed a similar distribution of mu power during cued relaxation. During cued motor imagery, however, the ataxia group showed significant spatial distribution of the response, while the control group showed the expected decrease in mu-band power (localized to the motor cortex).

Keywords: Brain-computer interface, EEG, modulation, ataxia.

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Authors: González-Izal M., Rodríguez-Carreño I, Mallor-Giménez F, Malanda A, Izquierdo M

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The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare new indices based on the discrete wavelet transform with another spectral parameters proposed in the literature as mean average voltage, median frequency and ratios between spectral moments applied to estimate acute exercise-induced changes in power output, i.e., to assess peripheral muscle fatigue during a dynamic fatiguing protocol. 15 trained subjects performed 5 sets consisting of 10 leg press, with 2 minutes rest between sets. Surface electromyography was recorded from vastus medialis (VM) muscle. Several surface electromyographic parameters were compared to detect peripheral muscle fatigue. These were: mean average voltage (MAV), median spectral frequency (Fmed), Dimitrov spectral index of muscle fatigue (FInsm5), as well as other five parameters obtained from the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) as ratios between different scales. The new wavelet indices achieved the best results in Pearson correlation coefficients with power output changes during acute dynamic contractions. Their regressions were significantly different from MAV and Fmed. On the other hand, they showed the highest robustness in presence of additive white gaussian noise for different signal to noise ratios (SNRs). Therefore, peripheral impairments assessed by sEMG wavelet indices may be a relevant factor involved in the loss of power output after dynamic high-loading fatiguing task.

Keywords: Median Frequency, EMG, wavelet transform, muscle fatigue

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Authors: Khalid M. Aamir, Mohammad A. Maud

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Power Spectral Density (PSD) computed by taking the Fourier transform of auto-correlation functions (Wiener-Khintchine Theorem) gives better result, in case of noisy data, as compared to the Periodogram approach. However, the computational complexity of Wiener-Khintchine approach is more than that of the Periodogram approach. For the computation of short time Fourier transform (STFT), this problem becomes even more prominent where computation of PSD is required after every shift in the window under analysis. In this paper, recursive version of the Wiener-Khintchine theorem has been derived by using the sliding DFT approach meant for computation of STFT. The computational complexity of the proposed recursive Wiener-Khintchine algorithm, for a window size of N, is O(N).

Keywords: Power Spectral Density (PSD), Wiener-KhintchineTheorem, Periodogram, Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT), TheSliding DFT.

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Authors: R.S Pugazenthi, Andy C. McIntosh

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Plasma Wind Tunnels (PWT) are extensively used for screening and qualification of re-entry Thermel Protection System (TPS) materials. Proper design of a supersonic diffuser for plasma wind tunnel is of importance for achieving good pressurerecovery (thereby reducing vacuum pumping requirement & run time costs) and isolating downstream stream fluctuations from propagating costs) and isolating downstream stream fluctuationnts the details of a rapid design methodology successfully employed for designing supersonic diffuser for high power (several megawatts)plasma wind tunnels and numerical performance analysis of a diffuser configuration designed for one megawatt power rated plasma wind tunnel(enthalpy ~ 30 MJ/kg) using FLUENT 6.3® solver for different diffuser operating sub-atmospheric back-pressures.

Keywords: Compressible flow, plasma wind tunnel, re-entry, supersonic diffuser

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Authors: Prashant Kumar Tiwari, Yog Raj Sood

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This paper proposes an investment cost recovery based efficient and fast sequential optimization approach to optimal allocation of thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) in competitive power market. The optimization technique has been used with an objective to maximizing the social welfare and minimizing the device installation cost by suitable location and rating of TCSC in the system. The effectiveness of proposed approach for location of TCSC has been compared with some existing methods of TCSC placement, in terms of its impact on social welfare, TCSC investment recovery and optimal generation as well as load patterns. The results have been obtained on modified IEEE 14-bus system.

Keywords: Double auction market, Investment cost recovery, Optimal location, Social welfare, TCSC

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Authors: Heroe Wijanto, Sugihartono, Suhartono Tjondronegoro, Kuspriyanto

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The use of High Order Statistics (HOS) analysis is expected to provide so many candidates of features that can be selected for pattern recognition. More candidates of the feature can be extracted using simple manipulation through a specific mathematical function prior to the HOS analysis. Feature extraction method using HOS analysis combined with Difference to the Nth-Power manipulation has been examined in application for Automatic Modulation Recognition (AMR) to perform scheme recognition of three digital modulation signal, i.e. QPSK-16QAM-64QAM in the AWGN transmission channel. The simulation results is reported when the analysis of HOS up to order-12 and the manipulation of Difference to the Nth-Power up to N = 4. The obtained accuracy rate of AMR using the method of Simple Decision obtained 90% in SNR > 10 dB in its classifier, while using the method of Voted Decision is 96% in SNR > 2 dB.

Keywords: modulation, automatic modulation recognition, feature analysis, feature manipulation.

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Authors: G. Bago, P. Hedbávný, M. Kalichová

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The aim of the contribution is to project and consequently verify a testing battery which in practice would facilitate the selection of talented gymnasts for current concept of men´ s gymnastics. Based on study of professional literature a test array consisting of three parts projected – power testing, speed testing and flexibility testing– was projected. The evaluating scales used in the tests are standardized. This test array was applied to girls aged 6 - 7 during recruitment for Sokol Brno I. and SG Pelhrimov Gymnastic Club. After 6 months of training activity the projected set of tests was applied again. The results were evaluated through observation and questionnaire and they were consequently transformed into charts. Recommendation for practice was proposed based on these results.

Keywords: Talent selection, sports gymnastics, power testing, speed testing, flexibility testing.

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Authors: Osama H. Ghazal

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The intension in this work is to investigate the effect of different fuels type on engine performance for different engine speed. Brake Power, Brake Torque, and specific fuel consumption were calculated and presented to show the effect of varying fuel type on them for all cases considered. A special program used to carry out the calculations. A simulation model for one-cylinder spark ignition engine has been built and calculated.

The analysis of the results shows that for methanol the power increases about 30% at 1000 rpm and 16% at 6000 rpm comparing with methane. For the same compared fuels the increment in fuel consumption is about 100% at 1000 rpm and 115% at 6000 rpm. The increment in brake thermal efficiency for gasoline is around 11% comparing with methane at 1000 rpm and 7% for methanol comparing with methane at 4000 rpm.

Keywords: Natural gas fuel, spark ignition engines, performance, engine simulation.

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Authors: Amin Safari, Hossein Shayeghi

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This paper presents a novel approach for tuning unified power flow controller (UPFC) based damping controller in order to enhance the damping of power system low frequency oscillations. The design problem of damping controller is formulated as an optimization problem according to the eigenvalue-based objective function which is solved using iteration particle swarm optimization (IPSO). The effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated through eigenvalue analysis and nonlinear time-domain simulation studies under a wide range of loading conditions. The simulation study shows that the designed controller by IPSO performs better than CPSO in finding the solution. Moreover, the system performance analysis under different operating conditions show that the δE based controller is superior to the mB based controller.

Keywords: UPFC, Optimization Problem, Iteration ParticleSwarm Optimization, Damping Controller, Low FrequencyOscillations.

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Authors: Khaled M. Khader, Mamdouh I. Elimy, Omayma A. Nada

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Sustainable development is the nominal goal of most countries at present. In general, fossil fuels are the development mainstay of most world countries. Regrettably, the fossil fuel consumption rate is very high, and the world is facing the problem of conventional fuels depletion soon. In addition, there are many problems of environmental pollution resulting from the emission of harmful gases and vapors during fuel burning. Thus, clean, renewable energy became the main concern of most countries for filling the gap between available energy resources and their growing needs. There are many renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and wave energy. Energy can be obtained from the motion of sea waves almost all the time. However, power generation from solar or wind energy is highly restricted to sunny periods or the availability of suitable wind speeds. Moreover, energy produced from sea wave motion is one of the cheapest types of clean energy. In addition, renewable energy usage of sea waves guarantees safe environmental conditions. Cheap electricity can be generated from wave energy using different systems such as oscillating bodies' system, pendulum gate system, ocean wave dragon system and oscillating water column device. In this paper, a multi-criteria model has been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to support the decision of selecting the most effective system for generating power from sea waves. This paper provides a widespread overview of the different design alternatives for sea wave energy converter systems. The considered design alternatives have been evaluated using the developed AHP model. The multi-criteria assessment reveals that the off-shore Oscillating Water Column (OWC) system is the most appropriate system for generating power from sea waves. The OWC system consists of a suitable hollow chamber at the shore which is completely closed except at its base which has an open area for gathering moving sea waves. Sea wave's motion pushes the air up and down passing through a suitable well turbine for generating power. Improving the power generation capability of the OWC system is one of the main objectives of this research. After investigating the effect of some design modifications, it has been concluded that selecting the appropriate settings of some effective design parameters such as the number of layers of Wells turbine fans and the intermediate distance between the fans can result in significant improvements. Moreover, simple dynamic analysis of the Wells turbine is introduced. Furthermore, this paper strives for comparing the theoretical and experimental results of the built experimental prototype.

Keywords: Renewable energy, oscillating water column, multi-criteria selection, wells turbine.

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Authors: Zebiri Chemseddine, Benabdelaziz Fatiha

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The effect of a chiral bianisotropic substrate on the complex resonant frequency of a rectangular microstrip resonator has been studied on the basis of the integral equation formulation. The analysis is based on numerical resolution of the integral equation using Galerkin procedure for moment method in the spectral domain. This work aim first to study the effect of the chirality of a bianisotopic substrate upon the resonant frequency and the half power bandwidth, second the effect of a magnetic anisotropy via an asymptotic approach for very weak substrate upon the resonant frequency and the half power bandwidth has been investigated. The obtained results are compared with previously published work [11-9], they were in good agreement.

Keywords: Microstrip antenna, bianisotropic media, resonant frequency, moment method.

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Authors: Damian Ramajo, Santiago Corzo, Norberto Nigro

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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: CFD, PHWR, Thermo-hydraulic, Two-phase flow.

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Authors: Hamdy M. Youssef, Eman A. Al-Lehaibi

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This paper presents an iteration method for the numerical solutions of a one-dimensional problem of generalized thermoelasticity with one relaxation time under given initial and boundary conditions. The thermoelastic material with variable properties as a power functional graded has been considered. Adomian’s decomposition techniques have been applied to the governing equations. The numerical results have been calculated by using the iterations method with a certain algorithm. The numerical results have been represented in figures, and the figures affirm that Adomian’s decomposition method is a successful method for modeling thermoelastic problems. Moreover, the empirical parameter of the functional graded, and the lattice design parameter have significant effects on the temperature increment, the strain, the stress, the displacement.

Keywords: Adomian, Decomposition Method, Generalized Thermoelasticity, algorithm, empirical parameter, lattice design.

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Authors: S.Shokri, S.Zahedi, M.Ahmadi Marvast, B. Baloochi, H.Ganji

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In this research, a systematic investigation was carried out to determine the optimum conditions of HDS reactor. Moreover, a suitable model was developed for a rigorous RTO (real time optimization) loop of HDS (Hydro desulfurization) process. A systematic experimental series was designed based on CCD (Central Composite design) and carried out in the related pilot plant to tune the develop model. The designed variables in the experiments were Temperature, LHSV and pressure. However, the hydrogen over fresh feed ratio was remained constant. The ranges of these variables were respectively equal to 320-380ºC, 1- 21/hr and 50-55 bar. a power law kinetic model was also developed for our further research in the future .The rate order and activation energy , power of reactant concentration and frequency factor of this model was respectively equal to 1.4, 92.66 kJ/mol and k0=2.7*109 .

Keywords: Statistical model, Multiphase Reactors, Gas oil, Hydrodesulfurization, Optimization, Kinetics

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Authors: N. Z. A. Hamid, M. S. M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly Ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: Chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method.

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Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

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The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of information and communication technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies. In this study, input-output (IO) and statistical approaches are used as analysis instruments. More specifically, this study employs Leontief IO coefficients and constrained multivariate regression (CMR) model in order to achieve the purpose. The periods of initial and forecast in this study are 2005 and 2015, respectively. In this study, ICT is represented by ICT capital stocks. This study conducts two levels of analysis, namely macro and micro. The results of macro level analysis show that the dynamics of Japanese economies on the forecast period, relative to the initial period, are not so high. We focus on (1) commerce, (2) business services and office supplies, and (3) personal services sectors when conducting the analysis of the micro level. Further, we analyze its specific IO coefficients when doing this analysis. The results of the analysis explain that ICT gives a strong influence on the changes of these coefficients from initial to forecast periods.

Keywords: Forecast, ICT, Structural changes, Japanese economies.

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Authors: Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos

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Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed

Keywords: Macroeconomic Models, Mamdani Rule Based- FCMs(MBFCMs), Qualitative and Dynamics System, Simulation.

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Authors: H. Sediki, Dj. Ould Abdeslam, T. Otmane-cherif, A. Bechouche, K. Mesbah

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This paper explores steady-state characteristics of grid-connected doubly fed induction motor (DFIM) in case of unity power factor operation. Based on the synchronized mathematical model, analytic determination of the control laws is presented and illustrated by various figures to understand the effect of the applied rotor voltage on the speed and the active power. On other hand, unlike previous works where the stator resistance was neglected, in this work, stator resistance is included such that the equations can be applied to small wind turbine generators which are becoming more popular. Finally the work is crowned by integration of the studied induction generator in a wind system where an open loop control is proposed confers a remarkable simplicity of implementation compared to the known methods.

Keywords: DFIM, equivalent circuit, induction machine, steady state

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Authors: Sudipta Majumdar, Amarendra Kumar Mishra

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This paper proposes empirical mode decomposition (EMD) together with wavelet transform (WT) based analytic signal for power quality (PQ) events assessment. EMD decomposes the complex signals into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF). As the PQ events are non stationary, instantaneous parameters have been calculated from these IMFs using analytic signal obtained form WT. We obtained three parameters from IMFs and then used KNN classifier for classification of PQ disturbance. We compared the classification of proposed method for PQ events by obtaining the features using Hilbert transform (HT) method. The classification efficiency using WT based analytic method is 97.5% and using HT based analytic signal is 95.5%.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, Hilbert transform, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam

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Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization.

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

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During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Keywords: Tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy, Microsoft Excel.

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Authors: T. R. Alencar, P. T. Leite

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Several optimization algorithms specifically applied to the problem of Operation Planning of Hydrothermal Power Systems have been developed and are used. Although providing solutions to various problems encountered, these algorithms have some weaknesses, difficulties in convergence, simplification of the original formulation of the problem, or owing to the complexity of the objective function. Thus, this paper presents the development of a computational tool for solving optimization problem identified and to provide the User an easy handling. Adopted as intelligent optimization technique, Genetic Algorithms and programming language Java. First made the modeling of the chromosomes, then implemented the function assessment of the problem and the operators involved, and finally the drafting of the graphical interfaces for access to the User. The program has managed to relate a coherent performance in problem resolution without the need for simplification of the calculations together with the ease of manipulating the parameters of simulation and visualization of output results.

Keywords: Energy, Optimization, Hydrothermal Power Systemsand Genetic Algorithms

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Authors: Alex Ellery

Abstract:

Geoengineering approaches to climate change mitigation are unpopular and regarded with suspicion. Of these, space-based approaches are regarded as unworkable and enormously costly. Here, a space-based approach is presented that is modest in cost, fully controllable and reversible, and acts as a natural spur to the development of solar power satellites over the longer term as a clean source of energy. The low-cost approach exploits self-replication technology which it is proposed may be enabled by 3D printing technology. Self-replication of 3D printing platforms will enable mass production of simple spacecraft units. Key elements being developed are 3D-printable electric motors and 3D-printable vacuum tube-based electronics. The power of such technologies will open up enormous possibilities at low cost including space-based geoengineering.

Keywords: 3D printing, in-situ resource utilization, self-replication technology, space-based geoengineering.

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Authors: C. Y. Chen

Abstract:

As the global climate changes, the threat from landslides and debris flows increases. Learning how a watershed initiates landslides under abnormal rainfall conditions and predicting landslide magnitude and frequency distribution is thus important. Landslides show a power-law distribution in the frequency-area distribution. The distribution curve shows an exponent gradient 1.0 in the Sandpile model test. Will the landslide frequency-area statistics show a distribution similar to the Sandpile model under extreme rainfall conditions? The purpose of the study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan. Results of the analysis show that a lower gradient of landslide frequency-area distribution could be attributed to the transportation and deposition of debris flow areas that are included in the landslide area.

Keywords: Landslide, power-law distribution, GIS.

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