Search results for: Energy Prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3774

Search results for: Energy Prediction

3414 The Prospective Assessment of Zero-Energy Dwellings

Authors: Jovana Dj. Jovanovic, Svetlana M. Stevovic

Abstract:

The highest priority of so called, projected passive houses is to meet the appropriate energy demand. Every single material and layer which is injected into a dwelling has a certain energy quantity stored. The passive houses include optimized insulation levels with minimal thermal bridges, minimum of air leakage through the building, utilization of passive solar and internal gains, and good circulation of air which leans on mechanical ventilation system. The focus of this paper is on passive house features, benefits and targets, their feasibility and energy demands which are set up during each project. Numerous passive house-standards outline the very significant role of zero-energy dwellings towards the modern label of sustainable development. It is clear that the performance of both built and existing housing stock must be addressed if the population across the world sets out the energy objectives. This scientific article examines passive house features since the many passive house cases are launched.

Keywords: Benefits, energy demands, passive houses, sustainable development.

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3413 Bioethanol - A Viable Answer to India-s Surging Energy Needs

Authors: Pranav Raghav Sood

Abstract:

India is currently the second most populous nation in the world with over 1.2 billion people, growing annually at the rate of 1.5%. It is experiencing a surge in energy demands, expected to grow more than three to four times in 25 years. Most of the energy requirements are currently satisfied by the import of fossil fuels – coal, petroleum-based products and natural gas. Biofuels can satisfy these energy needs in an environmentally benign and cost effective manner while reducing dependence on import of fossil fuels, thus providing National Energy Security. Among various forms of bioenergy, bioethanol is one of the major options for India because of availability of feed stock crops. This paper presents an overview on bioethanol production and technology, steps taken by the Indian government to facilitate and bring about optimal development and utilization of indigenous biomass feedstocks for production of this biofuel.

Keywords: Bioethanol, Fossil fuel, Biofuel, energy

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3412 Advancement of Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Technologies through Integrated Applications and Alternative Systems

Authors: S. Doyle, G. A. Aggidis

Abstract:

Wave energy converter technologies continue to show good progress in worldwide research. One of the most researched technologies, the Oscillating Water Column (OWC), is arguably one of the most popular categories within the converter technologies due to its robustness, simplicity and versatility. However, the versatility of the OWC is still largely untapped with most deployments following similar trends with respect to applications and operating systems. As the competitiveness of the energy market continues to increase, the demand for wave energy technologies to be innovative also increases. For existing wave energy technologies, this requires identifying areas to diversify for lower costs of energy with respect to applications and synergies or integrated systems. This paper provides a review of all OWCs systems integrated into alternative applications in the past and present. The aspects and variation in their design, deployment and system operation are discussed. Particular focus is given to the Multi-OWCs (M-OWCs) and their great potential to increase capture on a larger scale, especially in synergy applications. It is made clear that these steps need to be taken in order to make wave energy a competitive and viable option in the renewable energy mix as progression to date shows that stand alone single function devices are not economical. Findings reveal that the trend of development is moving toward these integrated applications in order to reduce the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) and will ultimately continue in this direction in efforts to make wave energy a competitive option in the renewable energy mix.

Keywords: Ocean energy, wave energy, oscillating water column, renewable energy, review.

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3411 Enhancing Temporal Extrapolation of Wind Speed Using a Hybrid Technique: A Case Study in West Coast of Denmark

Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

Abstract:

The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: Data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation.

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3410 Development of Accident Predictive Model for Rural Roadway

Authors: Fajaruddin Mustakim, Motohiro Fujita

Abstract:

This paper present the study carried out of accident analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050) Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23. Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment accident rates on multiple rural roadway.

Keywords: Accident Trends, Black Spot Study, Accident Prediction Model

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3409 Gaming for the Energy Neutral Development: A Case Study of Strijp-S

Authors: Q. Han, W. Schaefer, R. van den Berg

Abstract:

This paper deals with stakeholders’ decisions within energy neutral urban redevelopment processes. The decisions of these stakeholders during the process will make or break energy neutral ambitions. An extensive form of game theory model gave insight in the behavioral differences of stakeholders regarding energy neutral ambitions and the effects of the changing legislation. The results show that new legislation regarding spatial planning slightly influences the behavior of stakeholders. An active behavior of the municipality will still result in the best outcome. Nevertheless, the municipality becomes more powerful when acting passively and can make the use of planning tools to provide governance towards energy neutral urban redevelopment. Moreover, organizational support, recognizing the necessity for energy neutrality, keeping focused and collaboration among stakeholders are crucial elements to achieve the objective of an energy neutral urban (re)development.

Keywords: Energy neutrality urban (re)development, stakeholder behavior, legislation, game theory.

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3408 Power Management Strategy for Solar-Wind-Diesel Stand-alone Hybrid Energy System

Authors: Md. Aminul Islam, Adel Merabet, Rachid Beguenane, Hussein Ibrahim

Abstract:

This paper presents a simulation and mathematical model of stand-alone solar-wind-diesel based hybrid energy system (HES). A power management system is designed for multiple energy resources in a stand-alone hybrid energy system. Both Solar photovoltaic and wind energy conversion system consists of maximum power point tracking (MPPT), voltage regulation, and basic power electronic interfaces. An additional diesel generator is included to support and improve the reliability of stand-alone system when renewable energy sources are not available. A power management strategy is introduced to distribute the generated power among resistive load banks. The frequency regulation is developed with conventional phase locked loop (PLL) system. The power management algorithm was applied in Matlab®/Simulink® to simulate the results.

Keywords: Solar photovoltaic, wind energy, diesel engine, hybrid energy system, power management, frequency and voltage regulation.

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3407 Granger Causal Nexus between Financial Development and Energy Consumption: Evidence from Cross Country Panel Data

Authors: Rudra P. Pradhan

Abstract:

This paper examines the Granger causal nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the group of 35 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Countries over the period 1988-2012. The study uses two financial development indicators such as private sector credit and stock market capitalization and seven energy consumption indicators such as coal, oil, gas, electricity, hydro-electrical, nuclear and biomass. Using panel cointegration tests, the study finds that financial development and energy consumption are cointegrated, indicating the presence of a long-run relationship between the two. Using a panel vector error correction model (VECM), the study detects both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between financial development and energy consumption. The variation of this causality is due to the use of different proxies for both financial development and energy consumption. The policy implication of this study is that economic policies should recognize the differences in the financial development-energy consumption nexus in order to maintain sustainable development in the selected 35 FATF countries.

Keywords: Financial development, energy consumption, Panel VECM, FATF countries.

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3406 Evaluation of Context Information for Intermittent Networks

Authors: S. Balaji, E. Golden Julie, Y. Harold Robinson

Abstract:

The context aware adaptive routing protocol is presented for unicast communication in intermittently connected mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). The selection of the node is done by the Kalman filter prediction theory and it also makes use of utility functions. The context aware adaptive routing is defined by spray and wait technique, but the time consumption in delivering the message is too high and also the resource wastage is more. In this paper, we describe the spray and focus routing scheme for avoiding the existing problems.

Keywords: Context aware adaptive routing, Kalman filter prediction, spray and wait, spray and focus, intermittent networks.

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3405 Application of Vortex Induced Vibration Energy Generation Technologies to the Offshore Oil and Gas Platform: The Preliminary Study

Authors: M. A. Zahari, S. S. Dol

Abstract:

The global demand for continuous and eco-friendly renewable energy as alternative to fossils fuels is large and ever growing in nowadays. This paper will focus on capability of Vortex Induced Vibration (VIV) phenomenon in generating alternative energy for offshore platform application. In order to maximize the potential of energy generation, the effects of lock in phenomenon and different geometries of cylinder were studied in this project. VIV is the motion induced on bluff body which creates alternating lift forces perpendicular to fluid flow. Normally, VIV is unwanted in order to prevent mechanical failure of the vibrating structures. But in this project, instead of eliminating these vibrations, VIV will be exploited to transform these vibrations into a valuable resource of energy.

Keywords: Vortex Induced Vibration, Vortex Shedding, Renewable Energy

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3404 Solar Energy Generation Based Urban Development: A Case of Jodhpur City

Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

Abstract:

India has the most year-round favorable sunny conditions along with the second-highest solar irradiation in the world, the country holds the potential to become the global solar hub. The solar and wind-based generation capacity has skyrocketed in India with the successful effort of the Ministry of Renewable Energy, whereas the potential of rooftop based solar power generation has yet to be explored for proposed solar cities in India. The research aims to analyze the gap in the energy scenario in Jodhpur City and proposes interventions of solar energy generation systems as a catalyst for urban development. The research is based on the system concept which deals with simulation between the city system as a whole and its interactions between different subsystems. A system-dynamics based mathematical model is developed by identifying the control parameters using regression and correlation analysis to assess the gap in energy sector. The base model validation is done using the past 10 years timeline data collected from secondary sources. Further, energy consumption and solar energy generation-based projection are made for testing different scenarios to conclude the feasibility for maintaining the city level energy independence till 2031.

Keywords: City, consumption, energy, generation.

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3403 Constructing a Bayesian Network for Solar Energy in Egypt Using Life Cycle Analysis and Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy.

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3402 Investigation of Improved Chaotic Signal Tracking by Echo State Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptron via Training of Extended Kalman Filter Approach

Authors: Farhad Asadi, S. Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

This paper presents a prediction performance of feedforward Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Echo State Networks (ESN) trained with extended Kalman filter. Feedforward neural networks and ESN are powerful neural networks which can track and predict nonlinear signals. However, their tracking performance depends on the specific signals or data sets, having the risk of instability accompanied by large error. In this study we explore this process by applying different network size and leaking rate for prediction of nonlinear or chaotic signals in MLP neural networks. Major problems of ESN training such as the problem of initialization of the network and improvement in the prediction performance are tackled. The influence of coefficient of activation function in the hidden layer and other key parameters are investigated by simulation results. Extended Kalman filter is employed in order to improve the sequential and regulation learning rate of the feedforward neural networks. This training approach has vital features in the training of the network when signals have chaotic or non-stationary sequential pattern. Minimization of the variance in each step of the computation and hence smoothing of tracking were obtained by examining the results, indicating satisfactory tracking characteristics for certain conditions. In addition, simulation results confirmed satisfactory performance of both of the two neural networks with modified parameterization in tracking of the nonlinear signals.

Keywords: Feedforward neural networks, nonlinear signal prediction, echo state neural networks approach, leaking rates, capacity of neural networks.

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3401 Modeling Residential Space Heating Energy for Romania

Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption in Romania. The particularity of the model is that it is putting in competition both tangible technologies and thermal insulation projects with different financing modes. The model is optimizing the energy system by minimizing the global discounted cost in household sector, by integrating residential lighting, space heating, hot water, combined space heating – hot water, as well as space cooling, in a monolithic model. Another demand sector included is the passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating part, analyzing technical and economic issues related to investment decisions to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: Consumer behavior, energy modelling, Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model.

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3400 Meteorological Data Study and Forecasting Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Authors: S. Esfandeh, M. Sedighizadeh

Abstract:

Weather systems use enormously complex combinations of numerical tools for study and forecasting. Unfortunately, due to phenomena in the world climate, such as the greenhouse effect, classical models may become insufficient mostly because they lack adaptation. Therefore, the weather forecast problem is matched for heuristic approaches, such as Evolutionary Algorithms. Experimentation with heuristic methods like Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm can lead to the development of new insights or promising models that can be fine tuned with more focused techniques. This paper describes a PSO approach for analysis and prediction of data and provides experimental results of the aforementioned method on realworld meteorological time series.

Keywords: Weather, Climate, PSO, Prediction, Meteorological

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3399 Application and Assessment of Artificial Neural Networks for Biodiesel Iodine Value Prediction

Authors: Raquel M. de Sousa, Sofiane Labidi, Allan Kardec D. Barros, Alex O. Barradas Filho, Aldalea L. B. Marques

Abstract:

Several parameters are established in order to measure biodiesel quality. One of them is the iodine value, which is an important parameter that measures the total unsaturation within a mixture of fatty acids. Limitation of unsaturated fatty acids is necessary since warming of higher quantity of these ones ends in either formation of deposits inside the motor or damage of lubricant. Determination of iodine value by official procedure tends to be very laborious, with high costs and toxicity of the reagents, this study uses artificial neural network (ANN) in order to predict the iodine value property as an alternative to these problems. The methodology of development of networks used 13 esters of fatty acids in the input with convergence algorithms of back propagation of back propagation type were optimized in order to get an architecture of prediction of iodine value. This study allowed us to demonstrate the neural networks’ ability to learn the correlation between biodiesel quality properties, in this caseiodine value, and the molecular structures that make it up. The model developed in the study reached a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.99 for both network validation and network simulation, with Levenberg-Maquardt algorithm.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Biodiesel, Iodine Value, Prediction.

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3398 Towards the Use of Renewable Energy Sources in the Home

Authors: Adriana Alexandru, Elena Jitaru, Rayner Mayer

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of the European EIE project “Realising the potential for small scale renewable energy sources in the home – Kyotointhehome". The project's global aim is to inform and educate teachers, students and their families so that they can realise the need and can assess the potential for energy efficiency (EE) measures and renewable energy sources (RES) in their homes. The project resources were translated and trialled by 16 partners in 10 European countries. A web-based methodology which will enable families to assess how RES can be incorporated into energy efficient homes was accomplished. The web application “KYOTOINHOME" will help the citizens to identify what they can do to help their community meet the Kyoto target for greenhouse gas reductions and prevent global warming. This application provides useful information on how the citizens can use renewable energy sources in their home to provide space heating and cooling, hot water and electricity. A methodology for assessing heat loss in a dwelling and application of heat pump system was elaborated and will be implemented this year. For schools, we developed a set of practical activities concerned with preventing climate change through using renewable energy sources. Complementary resources will also developed in the Romanian research project “Romania Contribution to the European Targets Regarding the Development of Renewable Energy Sources" - PROMES.

Keywords: Education, energy policy, Internet, renewable energy sources.

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3397 Functionally Graded MEMS Piezoelectric Energy Harvester with Magnetic Tip Mass

Authors: M. Derayatifar, M. Packirisamy, R.B. Bhat

Abstract:

Role of piezoelectric energy harvesters has gained interest in supplying power for micro devices such as health monitoring sensors. In this study, in order to enhance the piezoelectric energy harvesting in capturing energy from broader range of excitation and to improve the mechanical and electrical responses, bimorph piezoelectric energy harvester beam with magnetic mass attached at the end is presented. In view of overcoming the brittleness of piezo-ceramics, functionally graded piezoelectric layers comprising of both piezo-ceramic and piezo-polymer is employed. The nonlinear equations of motions are derived using energy method and then solved analytically using perturbation scheme. The frequency responses of the forced vibration case are obtained for the near resonance case. The nonlinear dynamic responses of the MEMS scaled functionally graded piezoelectric energy harvester in this paper may be utilized in different design scenarios to increase the efficiency of the harvester.

Keywords: Energy harvesting, functionally graded piezoelectric material, magnetic force, MEMS piezoelectric, perturbation method.

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3396 High Capacity Data Hiding based on Predictor and Histogram Modification

Authors: Hui-Yu Huang, Shih-Hsu Chang

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a high capacity image hiding technology based on pixel prediction and the difference of modified histogram. This approach is used the pixel prediction and the difference of modified histogram to calculate the best embedding point. This approach can improve the predictive accuracy and increase the pixel difference to advance the hiding capacity. We also use the histogram modification to prevent the overflow and underflow. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method within the same average hiding capacity can still keep high quality of image and low distortion

Keywords: data hiding, predictor

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3395 Overview of Different Approaches Used in Optimal Operation Control of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

Authors: K. Kusakana

Abstract:

A hybrid energy system is a combination of renewable energy sources with back up, as well as a storage system used to respond to given load energy requirements. Given that the electrical output of each renewable source is fluctuating with changes in weather conditions, and since the load demand also varies with time; one of the main attributes of hybrid systems is to be able to respond to the load demand at any time by optimally controlling each energy source, storage and back-up system. The induced optimization problem is to compute the optimal operation control of the system with the aim of minimizing operation costs while efficiently and reliably responding to the load energy requirement. Current optimization research and development on hybrid systems are mainly focusing on the sizing aspect. Thus, the aim of this paper is to report on the state-of-the-art of optimal operation control of hybrid renewable energy systems. This paper also discusses different challenges encountered, as well as future developments that can help in improving the optimal operation control of hybrid renewable energy systems.

Keywords: Renewable energies, hybrid systems, optimization, operation control.

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3394 Prediction of Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Dynamics in an Iowan Agriculture Watershed

Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

Abstract:

In this study, a physically-based, modeling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modeling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the Ksat field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured Ksat values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of Ksat variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities. 

Keywords: Saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools.

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3393 Introduction to Electron Spectroscopy for Surfaces Characterization

Authors: Abdelkader Benzian

Abstract:

Spectroscopy is the study of the spectrum produced by the radiation-matter interaction which requires the study of electromagnetic radiation (or electrons) emitted, absorbed, or scattered by matter. Thus, the spectral analysis is using spectrometers which enables us to obtain curves that express the distribution of the energy emitted (spectrum). Analysis of emission spectra can therefore constitute several methods depending on the range of radiation energy. The most common methods used are Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) and Electron Energy Losses Spectroscopy (EELS), which allow the determination of the atomic structure on the surface. This paper focalized essentially on the Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy.

Keywords: Dielectric, plasmon, mean free path, spectroscopy of electron energy losses.

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3392 Optimization of Energy Consumption in Sequential Distillation Column

Authors: M.E. Masoumi, S. Kadkhodaie

Abstract:

Distillation column is one of the most common operations in process industries and is while the most expensive unit of the amount of energy consumption. Many ideas have been presented in the related literature for optimizing energy consumption in distillation columns. This paper studies the different heat integration methods in a distillation column which separate Benzene, Toluene, Xylene, and C9+. Three schemes of heat integration including, indirect sequence (IQ), indirect sequence with forward energy integration (IQF), and indirect sequence with backward energy integration (IQB) has been studied in this paper. Using shortcut method these heat integration schemes were simulated with Aspen HYSYS software and compared with each other with regarding economic considerations. The result shows that the energy consumption has been reduced 33% in IQF and 28% in IQB in comparison with IQ scheme. Also the economic result shows that the total annual cost has been reduced 12% in IQF and 8% in IQB regarding with IQ scheme. Therefore, the IQF scheme is most economic than IQB and IQ scheme.

Keywords: Optimization, Distillation Column Sequence, Energy Savings

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3391 The Effect of Tmax in Energy Consumption in 0IEEE 802.16e with Traffic Load

Authors: Mohammadreza Sahebi, Arash Azizi Mazreah, Asadollah Shahbahrami, Bahram Bakhshi

Abstract:

Energy consumption is an important design issue for Mobile Subscriber Station (MSS) in the standard IEEE 802.16e. Because mobility of MSS implies that energy saving becomes an issue so that lifetime of MSS can be extended before re-charging. Also, the mechanism in efficiently managing the limited energy is becoming very significant since a MSS is generally energized by battery. For these, sleep mode operation is recently specified in the MAC (Medium Access Control) protocol. In order to reduce the energy consumption, we focus on the sleep-mode and wake-mode of the MAC layer, which are included in the IEEE 802.16 standards [1- 2].

Keywords: IEEE 802.16e, Sleep-mode, Wake-mode, Downlink, Mobile Subscriber Station.

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3390 Towards Benchmarking English Residential Gas Consumption

Authors: J.Morris, D.Allinson, J.Harrison, K.J. Lomas

Abstract:

The UK Government has emphasized the role of Local Authorities as a key player in its flagship residential energy efficiency strategies, by identifying and targeting areas for energy efficiency improvements. Residential energy consumption in England is characterized by significant geographical variation in energy demand, which makes centralized targeting of areas for energy efficiency intervention difficult. This paper draws on research which aims to understand how demographic, social, economic, urban form and climatic factors influence the geographical variations in English residential gas consumption. The paper reports the findings of a multiple regression model that shows how 64% of the geographical variation in residential gas consumption is accounted for by variations in these factors. Results from this study, after further refinement and validation, can be used by Local Authorities to identify areas within their boundaries that have higher than expected gas consumption, these may be prime targets for energy efficiency initiatives.

Keywords: UK Housing, Heating Energy, Socio-Economics, Statistical Modelling

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3389 Determining the Width and Depths of Cut in Milling on the Basis of a Multi-Dexel Model

Authors: Jens Friedrich, Matthias A. Gebele, Armin Lechler, Alexander Verl

Abstract:

Chatter vibrations and process instabilities are the most important factors limiting the productivity of the milling process. Chatter can leads to damage of the tool, the part or the machine tool. Therefore, the estimation and prediction of the process stability is very important. The process stability depends on the spindle speed, the depth of cut and the width of cut. In milling, the process conditions are defined in the NC-program. While the spindle speed is directly coded in the NC-program, the depth and width of cut are unknown. This paper presents a new simulation based approach for the prediction of the depth and width of cut of a milling process. The prediction is based on a material removal simulation with an analytically represented tool shape and a multi-dexel approach for the workpiece. The new calculation method allows the direct estimation of the depth and width of cut, which are the influencing parameters of the process stability, instead of the removed volume as existing approaches do. The knowledge can be used to predict the stability of new, unknown parts. Moreover with an additional vibration sensor, the stability lobe diagram of a milling process can be estimated and improved based on the estimated depth and width of cut.

Keywords: Dexel, process stability, material removal, milling.

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3388 Assessment of Energy Consumption in Cluster Redevelopment: A Case Study of Bhendi Bazar in Mumbai

Authors: Insiya Kapasi, Roshni Udyavar Yehuda

Abstract:

Cluster Redevelopment is a new concept in the city of Mumbai. Its regulations were laid down by the government in 2009. The concept of cluster redevelopment encompasses a group of buildings defined by a boundary as specified by the municipal authority (in this case, Mumbai), which may be dilapidated or approved for redevelopment. The study analyses the effect of cluster redevelopment in the form of renewal of old group of buildings as compared to refurbishment or restoration - on energy consumption. The methodology includes methods of assessment to determine increase or decrease in energy consumption in cluster redevelopment based on different criteria such as carpet area of the units, building envelope and its architectural elements. Results show that as the area and number of units increase the Energy consumption increases and the EPI (energy performance index) decreases as compared to the base case. The energy consumption per unit area declines by 29% in the proposed cluster redevelopment as compared to the original settlement. It is recommended that although the development is spacious and provides more light and ventilation, aspects such as glass type, traditional architectural features and consumer behavior are critical in the reduction of energy consumption.

Keywords: Cluster redevelopment, energy consumption, energy efficiency, typologies.

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3387 Post Occupancy Life Cycle Analysis of a Green Building Energy Consumption at the University of Western Ontario in London - Canada

Authors: M. Bittencourt, E. K. Yanful, D. Velasquez, A. E. Jungles

Abstract:

The CMLP building was developed to be a model for sustainability with strategies to reduce water, energy and pollution, and to provide a healthy environment for the building occupants. The aim of this paper is to investigate the environmental effects of energy used by this building. A LCA (life cycle analysis) was led to measure the real environmental effects produced by the use of energy. The impact categories most affected by the energy use were found to be the human health effects, as well as ecotoxicity. Natural gas extraction, uranium milling for nuclear energy production, and the blasting for mining and infrastructure construction are the processes contributing the most to emissions in the human health effect. Data comparing LCA results of CMLP building with a conventional building results showed that energy used by the CMLP building has less damage for the environment and human health than a conventional building.

Keywords: Environmental Impacts, Green buildings, Life CycleAnalysis, Sustainability

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3386 Investigation of Some Technical Indexes inStock Forecasting Using Neural Networks

Authors: Myungsook Klassen

Abstract:

Training neural networks to capture an intrinsic property of a large volume of high dimensional data is a difficult task, as the training process is computationally expensive. Input attributes should be carefully selected to keep the dimensionality of input vectors relatively small. Technical indexes commonly used for stock market prediction using neural networks are investigated to determine its effectiveness as inputs. The feed forward neural network of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied to perform one step ahead forecasting of NASDAQ and Dow stock prices.

Keywords: Stock Market Prediction, Neural Networks, Levenberg-Marquadt Algorithm, Technical Indexes

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3385 Wind Power Assessment for Turkey and Evaluation by APLUS Code

Authors: Ibrahim H. Kilic, A. B. Tugrul

Abstract:

Energy is a fundamental component in economic development and energy consumption is an index of prosperity and the standard of living. The consumption of energy per capita has increased significantly over the last decades, as the standard of living has improved. Turkey’s geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. Among the renewable sources, Turkey has very high wind energy potential. Information such as installation capacity of wind power plants in installation, under construction and license stages in the country are reported in detail. Some suggestions are presented in order to increase the wind power installation capacity of Turkey. Turkey’s economic and social development has led to a massive increase in demand for electricity over the last decades. Since the Turkey has no major oil or gas reserves, it is highly dependent on energy imports and is exposed to energy insecurity in the future. But Turkey does have huge potential for renewable energy utilization. There has been a huge growth in the construction of wind power plants and small hydropower plants in recent years. To meet the growing energy demand, the Turkish Government has adopted incentives for investments in renewable energy production. Wind energy investments evaluated the impact of feed-in tariffs (FIT) based on three scenarios that are optimistic, realistic and pessimistic with APLUS software that is developed for rational evaluation for energy market. Results of the three scenarios are evaluated in the view of electricity market for Turkey.

Keywords: APLUS, energy policy, renewable energy, wind power, Turkey.

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