Search results for: Statistical learning theory

Authors: Nazira Kakulia, Tsotne Zhghenti

Abstract:

The institutional development is one of the actual topics in economics science. New trends and directions of institutional development mostly depend on its structure and framework. Transformation of institutions is an important problem for every economy, especially for developing countries. The first research goal is to determine the importance and interactions between different institutions in Georgia. Using World Governance Indicators and Economic Freedom indexes it can be calculated the size for each institutional group. The second aim of this research is to evaluate Georgian institutional backwardness in comparison to other post-communist economies. We use statistical and econometric methods to evaluate the difference between the levels of institutional development in Georgia and in leading post-communist economies. Within the scope of this research, major findings are coefficients which are an assessment of their deviation (i.e. lag) of institutional indicators between Georgia and leading post-communist country which should be compared. The last part of the article includes analysis around the selected coefficients.

Keywords: Post-communist transition, institutions, economic growth, institutional development.

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Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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Authors: Tao Zhao, Xin Wang

Abstract:

With the increasing complexity of engineering problems, the traditional, single-objective and deterministic optimization method can not meet people-s requirements. A multi-objective fuzzy optimization model of resource input is built for M chlor-alkali chemical eco-industrial park in this paper. First, the model is changed into the form that can be solved by genetic algorithm using fuzzy theory. And then, a fitness function is constructed for genetic algorithm. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show that the method compared with traditional single-objective optimization method is more practical and efficient.

Keywords: Fitness function, genetic algorithm, multi-objectivefuzzy optimization, satisfaction degree membership function.

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Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

Abstract:

Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: Kazuo Komatsu, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

This paper discusses a design of nonlinear observer by a formal linearization method using an application of Chebyshev Interpolation in order to facilitate processes for synthesizing a nonlinear observer and to improve the precision of linearization. A dynamic nonlinear system is linearized with respect to a linearization function, and a measurement equation is transformed into an augmented linear one by the formal linearization method which is based on Chebyshev interpolation. To the linearized system, a linear estimation theory is applied and a nonlinear observer is derived. To show effectiveness of the observer design, numerical experiments are illustrated and they indicate that the design shows remarkable performances for nonlinear systems.

Keywords: nonlinear system, nonlinear observer, formal linearization, Chebyshev interpolation.

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Authors: Mounir Sayadi, Farhat Fnaiech

Abstract:

In the framework of adaptive parametric modelling of images, we propose in this paper a new technique based on the Chandrasekhar fast adaptive filter for texture characterization. An Auto-Regressive (AR) linear model of texture is obtained by scanning the image row by row and modelling this data with an adaptive Chandrasekhar linear filter. The characterization efficiency of the obtained model is compared with the model adapted with the Least Mean Square (LMS) 2-D adaptive algorithm and with the cooccurrence method features. The comparison criteria is based on the computation of a characterization degree using the ratio of "betweenclass" variances with respect to "within-class" variances of the estimated coefficients. Extensive experiments show that the coefficients estimated by the use of Chandrasekhar adaptive filter give better results in texture discrimination than those estimated by other algorithms, even in a noisy context.

Keywords: Texture analysis, statistical features, adaptive filters, Chandrasekhar algorithm.

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Authors: A. Karaali

Abstract:

This paper will seek to clarify important key terms such as home schooling and home education as well as the legalities attached to such terms. It will reflect on the recent proposed changes to terminology in NSW, Australia. The various pedagogical approaches to home education will be explored including their prominence in the Australian context. There is a strong focus on literature from Australia. The historical background of home education in Australia will be explained as well as the difference between distance education and home education. The future of home education in Australia will be discussed.

Keywords: Alternative education, e-learning, home education, home schooling, online resources, technology.

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah, Jianing Mi, Cheng Feng

Abstract:

The patronage of e-government services (demand side of e-government) is vital to the successful implementation of e-government initiatives. The purpose of this study is to explore the predictors determining the willingness of African students in China to adopt and use e-government services. The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) will be used as the theoretical foundation for this research. Research instrument will be developed and administered to 500 African students in China. Factors such as performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, facilitating conditions and culture will be investigated to determine its significant impact on the willingness to use e-government services. This study is a research in progress. The outcome of this study will provide valuable recommendations to improve the provision of public services through e-government.

Keywords: E-government, e-government services, predictors UTAUT.

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Authors: Li-Li Li, Jinghai Feng, Lixin Song

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the dividend payments for general claim size distributions in the presence of a dividend barrier. The surplus of a company is modeled using the classical risk process perturbed by diffusion, and in addition, it is assumed to accrue interest at a constant rate. After presenting the integro-differential equation with initial conditions that dividend payments satisfies, the paper derives a useful expression of the dividend payments by employing the theory of Volterra equation. Furthermore, the optimal value of dividend barrier is found. Finally, numerical examples illustrate the optimality of optimal dividend barrier and the effects of parameters on dividend payments.

Keywords: Dividend payout, Integro-differential equation, Jumpdiffusion model, Volterra equation

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Authors: M. Chen, S-Q. Zhang, X. Wang, D. Tate

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical solution, namely limit and shakedown analysis, to predict the safety state of smart structures made of heterogeneous materials under unknown cyclic loadings, for instance, the flexure hinge in the micro-positioning stage driven by piezoelectric actuator. In combination of homogenization theory and finite-element method (FEM), the safety evaluation problem is converted to a large-scale nonlinear optimization programming for an acceptable bounded loading as the design reference. Furthermore, a general numerical scheme integrated with the FEM and interior-point-algorithm based optimization tool is developed, which makes the practical application possible.

Keywords: Limit state, shakedown analysis, homogenization, heterogeneous structure.

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Authors: M. Ebrahimi Shohani, S. M. Taheri, S. M. Golgoun

Abstract:

Environmental radiation dosimeter is a kind of detector that measures the dose of the radiation area. Dosimeter registers the radiation and converts it to the dose according to the calibration parameters. The limit of a dose is different at each radiation area and this limit should be notified and reported to the user and health physics department. The stochastic nature of radiation is the reason for the fluctuation of any gamma detector dosimetry. In this research we investigated Geiger-Muller type of dosimeter and tried to improve the dose measurement. Geiger-Muller dosimeter is a counter that converts registered radiation to the dose. Therefore, for better data analysis, it is necessary to apply an algorithm to smooth statistical variations of registered radiation. We proposed a method to smooth these fluctuations much more and also proposed a dynamic way to trace rapid changes of radiations. Results show that our method is fast and reliable method in comparison the traditional method.

Keywords: Geiger-Muller, radiation detection, smoothing algorithms, dosimeter, dose calculation.

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Authors: Wen-Chieh, Hsieh

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to analyze the islands tourist travel information sources, as well as for the satisfaction of the tourist destination services. This study used questionnaires to the island of Taiwan to the Penghu Islands to engage in tourism activities tourist adopt the designated convenience sampling method, a total of 889 valid questionnaires were collected. After statistical analysis, this study found that: 1. tourists to the Penghu Islands travel information source for “friends and family came to Penghu". 2. Tourists feel the service of the outlying islands of Penghu, the highest feelings of “friendly local residents". 3. There are different demographic variables affect the tourist travel information source and service satisfaction. Based on the findings of this study not only for Penghu's tourism industry with the unit in charge of the proposed operating and suggestions for future research to other researchers.

Keywords: Island tourism, destination, travel information, service satisfaction.

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Authors: M. R. Haboğlu, A. Kurşun, Ş. Aksoy, H. Aykul, N. B. Bektaş

Abstract:

Athermal elastic stress analysis of steel fiber reinforced aluminum laminated composite plate is investigated. Four sides of the composite plate are clamped and subjected to a uniform temperature load. The analysis is performed both analytically and numerically. Laminated composite is manufactured via hot pressing method. The investigation of the effects of the orientation angle is provided. Different orientation angles are used such as [0°/90°]s, [30°/-30°]s, [45°/-45°]s, and [60/-60]s. The analytical solution is obtained via classical laminated composite theory and the numerical solution is obtained by applying finite element method via ANSYS.

Keywords: Laminated Composites, Thermo Elastic Stress, Finite Element Method.

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Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

Abstract:

In statistics parameter theory, usually the parameter estimations have two kinds, one is the least-square estimation (LSE), and the other is the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE). Due to the determining theorem of minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE), the parameter estimation of BLUE in linear model is most ideal. But since the calculations are complicated or the covariance is not given, people are hardly to get the solution. Therefore, people prefer to use LSE rather than BLUE. And this substitution will take some losses. To quantize the losses, many scholars have presented many kinds of different relative efficiencies in different views. For the linear weighted regression model, this paper discusses the relative efficiencies of LSE of β to BLUE of β. It also defines two new relative efficiencies and gives their lower bounds.

Keywords: Linear weighted regression, Relative efficiency, Lower bound, Parameter estimation.

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Authors: Masoud Hekmatpanah, Mohammad Sadroddin, Saeid Shahbaz, Farhad Mokhtari, Farahnaz Fadavinia

Abstract:

The six sigma method is a project-driven management approach to improve the organization-s products, services, and processes by continually reducing defects in the organization. Understanding the key features, obstacles, and shortcomings of the six sigma method allows organizations to better support their strategic directions, and increasing needs for coaching, mentoring, and training. It also provides opportunities to better implement six sigma projects. The purpose of this paper is the survey of six sigma process and its impact on the organizational productivity. So I have studied key concepts , problem solving process of six sigmaas well as the survey of important fields such as: DMAIC, six sigma and productivity applied programme, and other advantages of six sigma. In the end of this paper, present research conclusions. (direct and positive relation between six sigma and productivity)

Keywords: Six sigma, project management, quality, theory, productivity.

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Authors: Hansung Wan, Hyungkwan Cho, Kiho Sung, Hongkyu Kim

Abstract:

The amount of urban artificial heat which affects the urban temperature rise in urban meteorology was investigated in order to clarify the relationships between urbanization and urban meteorology in this study. The results of calculation to identify how urban temperate was increased through the establishment of a model for measuring the amount of urban artificial heat and theoretical testing revealed that the amount of urban artificial heat increased urban temperature by plus or minus 0.23 ˚ C in 2007 compared with 1996, statistical methods (correlation and regression analysis) to clarify the relationships between urbanization and urban weather were as follows. New design techniques and urban growth management are necessary from urban growth management point of view suggested from this research at city design phase to decrease urban temperature rise and urban torrential rain which can produce urban disaster in terms of urban meteorology by urbanization.

Keywords: The amount of urban artificial heat, Urban growth management, Urbanization, Urban meteorology

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Authors: Elena Kotevska

Abstract:

This paper presents a generalization kernel for gravitational potential determination by harmonic splines. It was shown in [10] that the gravitational potential can be approximated using a kernel represented as a Newton integral over the real Earth body. On the other side, the theory of geopotential approximation by harmonic splines uses spherically oriented kernels. The purpose of this paper is to show that in the spherical case both kernels have the same type of representation, which leads us to conclusion that it is possible to consider the kernel represented as a Newton integral over the real Earth body as a kind of generalization of spherically harmonic kernels to real geometries.

Keywords: Geopotential, Reproducing Kernel, Approximation, Regular Surface

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Authors: Khalil A. Yaghi, Samer Barakat

Abstract:

Complex systems are composed of several plain interacting independent entities. Interaction between these entities creates a unified behavior at the global level that cannot be predicted by examining the behavior of any single individual component of the system. In this paper we consider a welded frame of an automobile trailer as a real example of Complex Technical Systems, The purpose of this paper is to introduce a Statistical method for predicting the life cycle of complex technical systems. To organize gathering of primary data for modeling the life cycle of complex technical systems an “Automobile Trailer Frame" were used as a prototype in this research. The prototype represents a welded structure of several pieces. Both information flows underwent a computerized analysis and classification for the acquisition of final results to reach final recommendations for improving the trailers structure and their operational conditions.

Keywords: Complex Technical System (CTS), AutomobileTrailer Frame, Automobile Service.

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Authors: Yanhui Zhang, Wenyu Yang

Abstract:

One of the difficulties of the vibration-based damage identification methods is the nonuniqueness of the results of damage identification. The different damage locations and severity may cause the identical response signal, which is even more severe for detection of the multiple damage. This paper proposes a new strategy for damage detection to avoid this nonuniqueness. This strategy firstly determines the approximates damage area based on the statistical pattern recognition method using the dynamic strain signal measured by the distributed fiber Bragg grating, and then accurately evaluates the damage information based on the Bayesian model updating method using the experimental modal data. The stochastic simulation method is then used to compute the high-dimensional integral in the Bayesian problem. Finally, an experiment of the plate structure, simulating one part of mechanical structure, is used to verify the effectiveness of this approach.

Keywords: Bayesian method, damage detection, fiber Bragg grating, structural health monitoring.

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Authors: Wajdi Bellil, Chokri Ben Amar, Adel M. Alimi

Abstract:

An application of Beta wavelet networks to synthesize pass-high and pass-low wavelet filters is investigated in this work. A Beta wavelet network is constructed using a parametric function called Beta function in order to resolve some nonlinear approximation problem. We combine the filter design theory with wavelet network approximation to synthesize perfect filter reconstruction. The order filter is given by the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network. In this paper we use only the first derivative of Beta function to illustrate the proposed design procedures and exhibit its performance.

Keywords: Beta wavelets, Wavenet, multiresolution analysis, perfect filter reconstruction, salient point detect, repeatability.

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Authors: Kaihong Zhao, Jiuqing Liu

Abstract:

In this letter, we considers a delayed predatory-prey system with Holling type II functional response. Under some sufficient conditions, the existence of multiple positive periodic solutions is obtained by using Mawhin’s continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory. An example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our results.

Keywords: Multiple positive periodic solutions, Predatory-prey system, Coincidence degree, Holling type II functional response.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan, Gürsel A. Süer

Abstract:

In this paper a genetic algorithm (GA) with dual-fitness function is proposed and applied to solve the deterministic identical machine scheduling problem. The mating fitness function value was used to determine the mating for chromosomes, while the selection fitness function value was used to determine their survivals. The performance of this algorithm was tested on deterministic identical machine scheduling using simulated data. The results obtained from the proposed GA were compared with classical GA and integer programming (IP). Results showed that dual-fitness function GA outperformed the classical single-fitness function GA with statistical significance for large problems and was competitive to IP, particularly when large size problems were used.

Keywords: Machine scheduling, Genetic algorithms, Due dates, Number of tardy jobs, Number of early jobs, Integer programming, Dual Fitness functions.

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Authors: Yasar Guneri Sahin, Mehmet Cudi Okur

Abstract:

In this presentation, we discuss the use of information technologies in the area of special education for teaching individuals with learning disabilities. Application software which was developed for this purpose is used to demonstrate the applicability of a database integrated information processing system to alleviate the burden of educators. The software allows the preparation of individualized education programs based on the predefined objectives, goals and behaviors.

Keywords: Special education, disabled individual, informationtechnology, individual education programs.

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Authors: Weng Ming Chu

Abstract:

When faced with stochastic networks with an uncertain duration for their activities, the securing of network completion time becomes problematical, not only because of the non-identical pdf of duration for each node, but also because of the interdependence of network paths. As evidenced by Adlakha & Kulkarni [1], many methods and algorithms have been put forward in attempt to resolve this issue, but most have encountered this same large-size network problem. Therefore, in this research, we focus on network reduction through a Series/Parallel combined mechanism. Our suggested algorithm, named the Activity Network Reduction Algorithm (ANRA), can efficiently transfer a large-size network into an S/P Irreducible Network (SPIN). SPIN can enhance stochastic network analysis, as well as serve as the judgment of symmetry for the Graph Theory.

Keywords: Series/Parallel network, Stochastic network, Network reduction, Interdictive Graph, Complexity Index.

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Authors: H. Nouri, I. E. Achouri, A. Grimes, H. Ait Said, M. Aissou, Y. Zebboudj

Abstract:

This paper aims to analysis the behavior of DC corona discharge in wire-to-plate electrostatic precipitators (ESP). Currentvoltage curves are particularly analyzed. Experimental results show that discharge current is strongly affected by the applied voltage. The proposed method of current identification is to use the method of least squares. Least squares problems that of into two categories: linear or ordinary least squares and non-linear least squares, depending on whether or not the residuals are linear in all unknowns. The linear least-squares problem occurs in statistical regression analysis; it has a closed-form solution. A closed-form solution (or closed form expression) is any formula that can be evaluated in a finite number of standard operations. The non-linear problem has no closed-form solution and is usually solved by iterative.

Keywords: Electrostatic precipitator, current-voltage characteristics, Least Squares method, electric field, magnetic field.

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Authors: S. Nagheli, N. Samani, D. A. Barry

Abstract:

In this paper, the velocity potential and stream function of capture zone for a well field in an aquifer bounded by two parallel streams with or without a uniform regional flow of any directions are presented. The well field includes any number of extraction or injection wells or a combination of both types with any pumping rates. To delineate the capture envelope, the potential and streamlines equations are derived by conformal mapping method. This method can help us to release constrains of other methods. The equations can be applied as useful tools to design in-situ groundwater remediation systems, to evaluate the surface–subsurface water interaction and to manage the water resources.

Keywords: Complex potential, conformal mapping, groundwater remediation, image well theory, Laplace’s equation, superposition principle.

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Authors: H. Katkhuda, B. Hanayneh, N. Shatarat

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to determine the isolated effect of silica fume on tensile, compressive and flexure strengths on high strength lightweight concrete. Many experiments were carried out by replacing cement with different percentages of silica fume at different constant water-binder ratio keeping other mix design variables constant. The silica fume was replaced by 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25% for a water-binder ratios ranging from 0.26 to 0.42. For all mixes, split tensile, compressive and flexure strengths were determined at 28 days. The results showed that the tensile, compressive and flexure strengths increased with silica fume incorporation but the optimum replacement percentage is not constant because it depends on the water–cementitious material (w/cm) ratio of the mix. Based on the results, a relationship between split tensile, compressive and flexure strengths of silica fume concrete was developed using statistical methods.

Keywords: Silica fume, Lightweight, High strength concrete, and Strength.

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Authors: Jan Erik Stellet

Abstract:

This article presents a detailed analysis and comparative performance evaluation of model reference adaptive control systems. In contrast to classical control theory, adaptive control methods allow to deal with time-variant processes. Inspired by the works [1] and [2], two methods based on the MIT rule and Lyapunov rule are applied to a linear first order system. The system is simulated and it is investigated how changes to the adaptation gain affect the system performance. Furthermore, variations in the reference model parameters, that is changing the desired closed-loop behaviour are examinded.

Keywords: Adaptive control systems, Adaptation gain, MIT rule, Lyapunov rule, Model reference adaptive control.

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Authors: W. T. Hsu, H. L. Tsai

Abstract:

The rapid aging of the population is a common trend in the world. However, the progress of modern medical technology has increased the average life expectancy. The global population structure has changed dramatically, and the elderly population has risen rapidly. In the face of rapid population growth, it must be noted issues of the aging population must face up to, which are the physiological, psychological, and social problems associated with aging. This study aims to investigate how insurance agents are actively dealing with an aging society, their own aging anxiety, and their exercise habits. Purposive sampling was the sampling method of this study, a total of 204 respondents were surveyed and 204 valid surveys were returned. The returned valid ratio was 100%. Statistical method included descriptive statistics, t-test, and one-way ANOVA. The results of the study found that the insurance agent’s age, seniority, exercise habits to aging anxiety are significantly different.

Keywords: Insurance agent, aging anxiety, exercise habits, elderly.

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