Search results for: Multiresolution approach.
2858 Determination of the Economic Planning Depth for Assembly Process Planning
Authors: A. Kampker, P. Burggräf, Y. Bäumers
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In order to be competitive, companies have to reduce their production costs while meeting increasing quality requirements. Therefore, companies try to plan their assembly processes as detailed as possible. However, increasing product individualization leading to a higher number of variants, smaller batch sizes and shorter product life cycles raise the question to what extent the effort of detailed planning is still justified. An important approach in this field of research is the concept of determining the economic planning depth for assembly process planning based on production specific influencing factors. In this paper first solution hypotheses as well as a first draft of the resulting method will be presented.Keywords: Assembly process planning, economic planning depth, planning benefit, planning effort.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21212857 Musical Instrument Classification Using Embedded Hidden Markov Models
Authors: Ehsan Amid, Sina Rezaei Aghdam
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In this paper, a novel method for recognition of musical instruments in a polyphonic music is presented by using an embedded hidden Markov model (EHMM). EHMM is a doubly embedded HMM structure where each state of the external HMM is an independent HMM. The classification is accomplished for two different internal HMM structures where GMMs are used as likelihood estimators for the internal HMMs. The results are compared to those achieved by an artificial neural network with two hidden layers. Appropriate classification accuracies were achieved both for solo instrument performance and instrument combinations which demonstrates that the new approach outperforms the similar classification methods by means of the dynamic of the signal.Keywords: hidden Markov model (HMM), embedded hidden Markov models (EHMM), MFCC, musical instrument.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18912856 Self-tuned LMS Algorithm for Sinusoidal Time Delay Tracking
Authors: Jonah Gamba
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In this paper the problem of estimating the time delay between two spatially separated noisy sinusoidal signals by system identification modeling is addressed. The system is assumed to be perturbed by both input and output additive white Gaussian noise. The presence of input noise introduces bias in the time delay estimates. Normally the solution requires a priori knowledge of the input-output noise variance ratio. We utilize the cascade of a self-tuned filter with the time delay estimator, thus making the delay estimates robust to input noise. Simulation results are presented to confirm the superiority of the proposed approach at low input signal-to-noise ratios.Keywords: LMS algorithm, Self-tuned filter, Systemidentification, Time delay estimation, .
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15902855 Stability of Interconnected Systems under Structural Perturbation: Decomposition-Aggregation Approach
Authors: M. Kidouche, H. Habbi, M. Zelmat
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In this paper, the decomposition-aggregation method is used to carry out connective stability criteria for general linear composite system via aggregation. The large scale system is decomposed into a number of subsystems. By associating directed graphs with dynamic systems in an essential way, we define the relation between system structure and stability in the sense of Lyapunov. The stability criteria is then associated with the stability and system matrices of subsystems as well as those interconnected terms among subsystems using the concepts of vector differential inequalities and vector Lyapunov functions. Then, we show that the stability of each subsystem and stability of the aggregate model imply connective stability of the overall system. An example is reported, showing the efficiency of the proposed technique.Keywords: Composite system, Connective stability, Lyapunovfunctions.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15052854 The Challenges of Hyper-Textual Learning Approach for Religious Education
Authors: Elham Shirvani–Ghadikolaei, Seyed Mahdi Sajjadi
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State of the art technology has the tremendous impact on our life, in this situation education system have been influenced as well as. In this paper, tried to compare two space of learning text and hypertext with each other, and some challenges of using hypertext in religious education. Regarding the fact that, hypertext is an undeniable part of learning in this world and it has highly beneficial for the education process from class to office and home. In this paper tried to solve this question: the consequences and challenges of applying hypertext in religious education. Also, the consequences of this survey demonstrate the role of curriculum designer and planner of education to solve this problem.
Keywords: Hyper-textual, education, religious text, religious education.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14192853 Introduction of Open-Source e-Learning Environment and Resources: A Novel Approach for Secondary Schools in Tanzania
Authors: S. K. Lujara, M. M. Kissaka, L. Trojer, N. H. Mvungi
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The concept of e-Learning is now emerging in Sub Saharan African countries like Tanzania. Due to economic constraints and other social and cultural factors faced by these countries, the use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is increasing at a very low pace. The digital divide threat has propelled the Government of Tanzania to put in place the national ICT Policy in 2003 which defines the direction of all ICT activities nationally. Among the main focused areas is the use of ICT in education, since for the development of any country, there is a need of creating knowledge based society. This paper discusses the initiatives made so far to introduce the use of ICT tools to some secondary schools using open source software in e-content development to facilitate a self-learning environment
Keywords: e-content, e-Learning, ICT, Open Source Software.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18542852 Application of Robotics to Assemble a Used Fuel Container in the Canadian Used Fuel Packing Plant
Authors: Dimitrie Marinceu
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The newest Canadian Used Fuel Container (UFC)- (called also “Mark II”) modifies the design approach for its Assembly Robotic Cell (ARC) in the Canadian Used (Nuclear) Fuel Packing Plant (UFPP). Some of the robotic design solutions are presented in this paper. The design indicates that robots and manipulators are expected to be used in the Canadian UFPP. As normally, the UFPP design will incorporate redundancy of all equipment to allow expedient recovery from any postulated upset conditions. Overall, this paper suggests that robot usage will have a significant positive impact on nuclear safety, quality, productivity, and reliability.Keywords: Used fuel packing plant, robotic assembly cell, used fuel container, deep geological repository.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8762851 Stability Analysis in a Fractional Order Delayed Predator-Prey Model
Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li
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In this paper, we study the stability of a fractional order delayed predator-prey model. By using the Laplace transform, we introduce a characteristic equation for the above system. It is shown that if all roots of the characteristic equation have negative parts, then the equilibrium of the above fractional order predator-prey system is Lyapunov globally asymptotical stable. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the approach presented in this paper.
Keywords: Fractional predator-prey model, laplace transform, characteristic equation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24972850 Statistical Approach to Basis Function Truncation in Digital Interpolation Filters
Authors: F. Castillo, J. Arellano, S. Sánchez
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In this paper an alternative analysis in the time domain is described and the results of the interpolation process are presented by means of functions that are based on the rule of conditional mathematical expectation and the covariance function. A comparison between the interpolation error caused by low order filters and the classic sinc(t) truncated function is also presented. When fewer samples are used, low-order filters have less error. If the number of samples increases, the sinc(t) type functions are a better alternative. Generally speaking there is an optimal filter for each input signal which depends on the filter length and covariance function of the signal. A novel scheme of work for adaptive interpolation filters is also presented.Keywords: Interpolation, basis function, over-sampling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15552849 Web Service Security Method To SOA Development
Authors: Nafise Fareghzadeh
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Web services provide significant new benefits for SOAbased applications, but they also expose significant new security risks. There are huge number of WS security standards and processes. At present, there is still a lack of a comprehensive approach which offers a methodical development in the construction of secure WS-based SOA. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to address this needs, presenting a comprehensive method for Web Services Security guaranty in SOA. The proposed method defines three stages, Initial Security Analysis, Architectural Security Guaranty and WS Security Standards Identification. These facilitate, respectively, the definition and analysis of WS-specific security requirements, the development of a WS-based security architecture and the identification of the related WS security standards that the security architecture must articulate in order to implement the security services.Keywords: Kernel, Repository, Security Standards, WS Security Policy, WS specification.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14272848 Fuzzy Based Problem-Solution Data Structureas a Data Oriented Model for ABS Controlling
Authors: Ahmad Habibizad Navin, Mehdi Naghian Fesharaki, Mohamad Teshnelab, Ehsan Shahamatnia
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The anti-lock braking systems installed on vehicles for safe and effective braking, are high-order nonlinear and timevariant. Using fuzzy logic controllers increase efficiency of such systems, but impose a high computational complexity as well. The main concept introduced by this paper is reducing computational complexity of fuzzy controllers by deploying problem-solution data structure. Unlike conventional methods that are based on calculations, this approach is based on data oriented modeling.Keywords: ABS, Fuzzy controller, PSDS, Time-Memory tradeoff, Data oriented modeling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17362847 Application of Neural Network for Contingency Ranking Based on Combination of Severity Indices
Authors: S. Jadid, S. Jalilzadeh
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In this paper, an improved technique for contingency ranking using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed approach is based on multi-layer perceptrons trained by backpropagation to contingency analysis. Severity indices in dynamic stability assessment are presented. These indices are based on the concept of coherency and three dot products of the system variables. It is well known that some indices work better than others for a particular power system. This paper along with test results using several different systems, demonstrates that combination of indices with ANN provides better ranking than a single index. The presented results are obtained through the use of power system simulation (PSS/E) and MATLAB 6.5 software.Keywords: composite indices, transient stability, neural network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22252846 A Bi-Objective Model to Address Simultaneous Formulation of Project Scheduling and Material Ordering
Authors: Babak H. Tabrizi, Seyed Farid Ghaderi
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Concurrent planning of project scheduling and material ordering has been increasingly addressed within last decades as an approach to improve the project execution costs. Therefore, we have taken the problem into consideration in this paper, aiming to maximize schedules quality robustness, in addition to minimize the relevant costs. In this regard, a bi-objective mathematical model is developed to formulate the problem. Moreover, it is possible to utilize the all-unit discount for materials purchasing. The problem is then solved by the E-constraint method, and the Pareto front is obtained for a variety of robustness values. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed model is tested by different numerical instances, finally.Keywords: E-constraint method, material ordering, project management, project scheduling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20152845 Disturbance Observer-Based Predictive Functional Critical Control of a Table Drive System
Authors: Toshiyuki Satoh, Hiroki Hara, Naoki Saito, Jun-ya Nagase, Norihiko Saga
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This paper addresses a control system design for a table drive system based on the disturbance observer (DOB)-based predictive functional critical control (PFCC). To empower the previously developed DOB-based PFC to handle constraints on controlled outputs, we propose to take a critical control approach. To this end, we derive the transfer function representation of the PFC controller and yield a detailed design procedure. The effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed through an experimental evaluation.
Keywords: Critical control, disturbance observer, mechatronics, motion control, predictive functional control, table drive systems.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18772844 Continual Improvement with Integrated Management System
Authors: Sharareh Mirsaeidi Farahani , Gholamreza Chitsaz
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Management Systems are powerful tools for businesses to manage quality , environmental and occupational health and safety requirements . where once these systems were considered as stand alone control mechanisms , industry is now opting to increase the efficiency of these documented systems through a more integrated approach . System integration offers a significant step forward, where there are similarities between system components , reducing duplication and adminstration costs and increasing efficiency . At first , this paper reviews integrated management system structure and its benefits. The second part of this paper focuses on the one example implementation of such a system at Imam Khomeini Hospital and in final part of the paper will be discuss outcomes of that proccess .Keywords: environmental management , Integratedmanagement systems, occupational healt and safetymanagement , quality management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32432843 An Investigation into the Isolation and Bandwidth Characteristics of X-Band Chireix PA Combiners
Authors: D. P. Clayton, E. A. Ball
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This paper describes an investigation into the isolation characteristics and bandwidth performance of radio frequency (RF) combiners that are used as part of Chireix power amplifier (PA) architectures, designed for use in the X-Band range of frequencies. Combiner designs investigated are the typical Chireix and Wilkinson configurations which also include simulation of the Wilkinson using manufacturer’s data for the isolation resistor. Another simulation was the less common approach of using a Branchline coupler to form the combiner, as well as simulation results from adding an additional stage. This paper presents the findings of this investigation and compares the bandwidth performance and isolation characteristics to determine suitability.
Keywords: Bandwidth, Chireix, couplers, outphasing, power amplifiers, Wilkinson, X-Band.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1882842 Delay-Distribution-Dependent Stability Criteria for BAM Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays
Authors: J.H. Park, S. Lakshmanan, H.Y. Jung, S.M. Lee
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This paper is concerned with the delay-distributiondependent stability criteria for bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays. Based on the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and stochastic analysis approach, a delay-probability-distribution-dependent sufficient condition is derived to achieve the globally asymptotically mean square stable of the considered BAM neural networks. The criteria are formulated in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked efficiently by use of some standard numerical packages. Finally, a numerical example and its simulation is given to demonstrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed results.Keywords: BAM neural networks, Probabilistic time-varying delays, Stability criteria.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14182841 Design for Reliability and Manufacturing Yield (Study and Modeling of Defects in Integrated Circuits for their Reliability Analysis)
Authors: G. Ait Abdelmalek, R. Ziani
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In this document, we have proposed a robust conceptual strategy, in order to improve the robustness against the manufacturing defects and thus the reliability of logic CMOS circuits. However, in order to enable the use of future CMOS technology nodes this strategy combines various types of design: DFR (Design for Reliability), techniques of tolerance: hardware redundancy TMR (Triple Modular Redundancy) for hard error tolerance, the DFT (Design for Testability. The Results on largest ISCAS and ITC benchmark circuits show that our approach improves considerably the reliability, by reducing the key factors, the area costs and fault tolerance probability.Keywords: Design for reliability, design for testability, fault tolerance, manufacturing yield.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20632840 Design of Multiplier-free State-Space Digital Filters
Authors: Tamal Bose, Zhurun Zhang, Miloje Radenkovic, Ojas Chauhan
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In this paper, a novel approach is presented for designing multiplier-free state-space digital filters. The multiplier-free design is obtained by finding power-of-2 coefficients and also quantizing the state variables to power-of-2 numbers. Expressions for the noise variance are derived for the quantized state vector and the output of the filter. A “structuretransformation matrix" is incorporated in these expressions. It is shown that quantization effects can be minimized by properly designing the structure-transformation matrix. Simulation results are very promising and illustrate the design algorithm.Keywords: Digital filters, minimum noise, multiplier-free, quantization, state-space.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15322839 Lattice Monte Carlo Analyses of Thermal Diffusion in Laminar Flow
Authors: Thomas Fiedler, Irina V. Belova, Graeme E. Murch
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Lattice Monte Carlo methods are an excellent choice for the simulation of non-linear thermal diffusion problems. In this paper, and for the first time, Lattice Monte Carlo analysis is performed on thermal diffusion combined with convective heat transfer. Laminar flow of water modeled as an incompressible fluid inside a copper pipe with a constant surface temperature is considered. For the simulation of thermal conduction, the temperature dependence of the thermal conductivity of the water is accounted for. Using the novel Lattice Monte Carlo approach, temperature distributions and energy fluxes are obtained.Keywords: Coupled Analysis, Laminar Flow, Lattice MonteCarlo, Thermal Diffusion
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19932838 An Approach to Flatten the Gain of Fiber Raman Amplifiers with Multi-Pumping
Authors: Surinder Singh, Adish Bindal
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The effects of the pumping wavelength and their power on the gain flattening of a fiber Raman amplifier (FRA) are investigated. The multi-wavelength pumping scheme is utilized to achieve gain flatness in FRA. It is proposed that gain flatness becomes better with increase in number of pumping wavelengths applied. We have achieved flat gain with 0.27 dB fluctuation in a spectral range of 1475-1600 nm for a Raman fiber length of 10 km by using six pumps with wavelengths with in the 1385-1495 nm interval. The effect of multi-wavelength pumping scheme on gain saturation in FRA is also studied. It is proposed that gain saturation condition gets improved by using this scheme and this scheme is more useful for higher spans of Raman fiber length.Keywords: FRA, gain, pumping, WDM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19282837 An Ultra-Low Output Impedance Power Amplifier for Tx Array in 7-Tesla Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Authors: Ashraf Abuelhaija, Klaus Solbach
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In Ultra high-field MRI scanners (3T and higher), parallel RF transmission techniques using multiple RF chains with multiple transmit elements are a promising approach to overcome the high-field MRI challenges in terms of inhomogeneity in the RF magnetic field and SAR. However, mutual coupling between the transmit array elements disturbs the desirable independent control of the RF waveforms for each element. This contribution demonstrates a 18 dB improvement of decoupling (isolation) performance due to the very low output impedance of our 1 kW power amplifier.Keywords: EM coupling, Inter-element isolation, Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), Parallel Transmit.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17432836 Traditions of Theatrical Art in the Space of Nomadic Culture of the Kazakhs
Authors: Yeskendirov N.R., Karjaubaeva S.K., Ahmet A. K.
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A number of theoretical and methodological problems connected with substantiation of a new approach and searches of a new research paradigm and the analysis of features of formation and development of the Kazakh stage are considered in the article. The wide spectrum of questions connected with genesis of the Kazakh stage art has caused necessity of consideration of world outlook and social cultural aspects which have affected formation of the given phenomenon in the Kazakh culture. But how can we define the form of expression and aesthetics of the national theatre? Probably, the answer to this question we will find if we apply to deep world view sources, and, as a consequence, it is necessary to study deeply the plot dramaturgy, which is based on myths, rites and eposes, mastering of symbolic gestures and mimics, allegory of a word, etc.
Keywords: Tradition, theater, art, culture, nomadic Kazakhs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15052835 Performance Analysis of Adaptive LMS Filter through Regression Analysis using SystemC
Authors: Hyeong-Geon Lee, Jae-Young Park, Suk-ki Lee, Jong-Tae Kim
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The LMS adaptive filter has several parameters which can affect their performance. From among these parameters, most papers handle the step size parameter for controlling the performance. In this paper, we approach three parameters: step-size, filter tap-size and filter form. The regression analysis is used for defining the relation between parameters and performance of LMS adaptive filter with using the system level simulation results. The results present that all parameters have performance trends in each own particular form, which can be estimated from equations drawn by regression analysis.
Keywords: System level model, adaptive LMS FIR filter, regression analysis, systemC.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 28002834 A Security Analysis for Home Gateway Architectures
Authors: Pierre Parrend, Stephane Frenot
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Providing Services at Home has become over the last few years a very dynamic and promising technological domain. It is likely to enable wide dissemination of secure and automated living environments. We propose a methodology for identifying threats to Services at Home Delivery systems, as well as a threat analysis of a multi-provider Home Gateway architecture. This methodology is based on a dichotomous positive/preventive study of the target system: it aims at identifying both what the system must do, and what it must not do. This approach completes existing methods with a synthetic view of potential security flaws, thus enabling suitable measures to be taken into account. Security implications of the evolution of a given system become easier to deal with. A prototype is built based on the conclusions of this analysis.Keywords: Security requirements, Connected Home, OSGi, Sofware Components.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16082833 Stochastic Programming Model for Power Generation
Authors: Takayuki Shiina
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We consider power system expansion planning under uncertainty. In our approach, integer programming and stochastic programming provide a basic framework. We develop a multistage stochastic programming model in which some of the variables are restricted to integer values. By utilizing the special property of the problem, called block separable recourse, the problem is transformed into a two-stage stochastic program with recourse. The electric power capacity expansion problem is reformulated as the problem with first stage integer variables and continuous second stage variables. The L-shaped algorithm to solve the problem is proposed.Keywords: electric power capacity expansion problem, integerprogramming, L-shaped method, stochastic programming
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18252832 Data-driven ASIC for Multichannel Sensors
Authors: Eduard Atkin, Alexander Klyuev, Vitaly Shumikhin
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An approach and its implementation in 0.18 m CMOS process of the multichannel ASIC for capacitive (up to 30 pF) sensors are described in the paper. The main design aim was to study an analog data-driven architecture. The design was done for an analog derandomizing function of the 128 to 16 structure. That means that the ASIC structure should provide a parallel front-end readout of 128 input analog sensor signals and after the corresponding fast commutation with appropriate arbitration logic their processing by means of 16 output chains, including analog-to-digital conversion. The principal feature of the ASIC is a low power consumption within 2 mW/channel (including a 9-bit 20Ms/s ADC) at a maximum average channel hit rate not less than 150 kHz.
Keywords: Data-driven architecture, derandomizer, multichannel sensor readout
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14232831 Human Interactive E-learning Systems using Head Posture Images
Authors: Yucel Ugurlu
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This paper explains a novel approach to human interactive e-learning systems using head posture images. Students- face and hair information are used to identify a human presence and estimate the gaze direction. We then define the human-computer interaction level and test the definition using ten students and seventy different posture images. The experimental results show that head posture images provide adequate information for increasing human-computer interaction in e-learning systems.
Keywords: E-learning, image segmentation, human-presence, gaze-direction, human-computer interaction, LabVIEW
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16232830 Applying Wavelet Entropy Principle in Fault Classification
Authors: S. El Safty, A. El-Zonkoly
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The ability to detect and classify the type of fault plays a great role in the protection of power system. This procedure is required to be precise with no time consumption. In this paper detection of fault type has been implemented using wavelet analysis together with wavelet entropy principle. The simulation of power system is carried out using PSCAD/EMTDC. Different types of faults were studied obtaining various current waveforms. These current waveforms were decomposed using wavelet analysis into different approximation and details. The wavelet entropy of such decompositions is analyzed reaching a successful methodology for fault classification. The suggested approach is tested using different fault types and proven successful identification for the type of fault.Keywords: Fault classification, wavelet transform, waveletentropy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19372829 Forecasting Malaria Cases in Bujumbura
Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz
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The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1984