Search results for: Exponential smoothing

Authors: Farooq Ahmad, Hejiao Huang, Xiaolong Wang

Abstract:

Reachability graph (RG) generation suffers from the problem of exponential space and time complexity. To alleviate the more critical problem of time complexity, this paper presents the new approach for RG generation for the Petri net (PN) models of parallel processes. Independent RGs for each parallel process in the PN structure are generated in parallel and cross-product of these RGs turns into the exhaustive state space from which the RG of given parallel system is determined. The complexity analysis of the presented algorithm illuminates significant decrease in the time complexity cost of RG generation. The proposed technique is applicable to parallel programs having multiple threads with the synchronization problem.

Keywords: Parallel processes, Petri net, reachability graph, time complexity.

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Authors: Jung-Hun Cho, Tae-Heon Moon, Jin-Hak Lee

Abstract:

Land price contains the comprehensive characteristics of urban space, representing the social and economic features of the city. Accordingly, land price can be utilized as an indicator, which can identify the changes of spatial structure and socioeconomic variations caused by urban development. This study attempted to explore the changes in land price by a new road construction. Methodologically, it adopted Space Syntax, which can interpret urban spatial structure comprehensively, to identify the relationship between the forms of road networks and land price. The result of the regression analysis showed the ‘integration index’ of Space Syntax is statistically significant and has a strong correlation with land price. If the integration value is high, land price increases proportionally. Subsequently, using regression equation, it tried to predict the land price changes of each of the lots surrounding the roads that are newly opened. The research methods or study results have the advantage of predicting the changes in land price in an easy way. In addition, it will contribute to planners and project managers to establish relevant polices and smoothing urban regeneration projects through enhancing residents’ understanding by providing possible results and advantages in their land price before the execution of urban regeneration and development projects.

Keywords: Space syntax, urban regeneration, spatial structure, official land price.

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Authors: Changzhao Li, Juan Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate a class of fuzzy Cohen- Grossberg neural networks with time delays and impulsive effects. By virtue of stochastic analysis, Halanay inequality for stochastic differential equations, we find sufficient conditions for the global exponential square-mean synchronization of the FCGNNs under noise perturbation. In particular, the traditional assumption on the differentiability of the time-varying delays is no longer needed. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the results in this paper.

Keywords: Fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg neural networks (FCGNNs), complete synchronization, time delays, impulsive, noise perturbation.

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Authors: S. Thirumurugan, D. R. Prince Williams

Abstract:

Software Reliability is one of the key factors in the software development process. Software Reliability is estimated using reliability models based on Non Homogenous Poisson Process. In most of the literature the Software Reliability is predicted only in testing phase. So it leads to wrong decision-making concept. In this paper, two Software Reliability concepts, testing and operational phase are studied in detail. Using S-Shaped Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) and Exponential SRGM, the testing and operational reliability values are obtained. Finally two reliability values are compared and optimal release time is investigated.

Keywords: Error Detection Rate, Estimation of Parameters, Instantaneous Failure Rate, Mean Value Function, Non Homogenous Poisson Process (NHPP), Software Reliability.

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Authors: Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Siddhartha Khaitan, Anshu Manik

Abstract:

Cluster analysis is the name given to a diverse collection of techniques that can be used to classify objects (e.g. individuals, quadrats, species etc). While Kohonen's Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) or Self-Organizing Map (SOM) networks have been successfully applied as a classification tool to various problem domains, including speech recognition, image data compression, image or character recognition, robot control and medical diagnosis, its potential as a robust substitute for clustering analysis remains relatively unresearched. SOM networks combine competitive learning with dimensionality reduction by smoothing the clusters with respect to an a priori grid and provide a powerful tool for data visualization. In this paper, SOM is used for creating a toroidal mapping of two-dimensional lattice to perform cluster analysis on results of a chemical analysis of wines produced in the same region in Italy but derived from three different cultivators, referred to as the “wine recognition data" located in the University of California-Irvine database. The results are encouraging and it is believed that SOM would make an appealing and powerful decision-support system tool for clustering tasks and for data visualization.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cluster analysis, Kohonen maps, wine recognition.

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Authors: Rosziati Ibrahim, Siow Yen Yen

Abstract:

System development life cycle (SDLC) is a process uses during the development of any system. SDLC consists of four main phases: analysis, design, implement and testing. During analysis phase, context diagram and data flow diagrams are used to produce the process model of a system. A consistency of the context diagram to lower-level data flow diagrams is very important in smoothing up developing process of a system. However, manual consistency check from context diagram to lower-level data flow diagrams by using a checklist is time-consuming process. At the same time, the limitation of human ability to validate the errors is one of the factors that influence the correctness and balancing of the diagrams. This paper presents a tool that automates the consistency check between Data Flow Diagrams (DFDs) based on the rules of DFDs. The tool serves two purposes: as an editor to draw the diagrams and as a checker to check the correctness of the diagrams drawn. The consistency check from context diagram to lower-level data flow diagrams is embedded inside the tool to overcome the manual checking problem.

Keywords: Data Flow Diagram, Context Diagram, ConsistencyCheck, Syntax and Semantic Rules

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Authors: R. Fatehi, M.A. Fayazbakhsh, M.T. Manzari

Abstract:

Discretization of spatial derivatives is an important issue in meshfree methods especially when the derivative terms contain non-linear coefficients. In this paper, various methods used for discretization of second-order spatial derivatives are investigated in the context of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. Three popular forms (i.e. "double summation", "second-order kernel derivation", and "difference scheme") are studied using one-dimensional unsteady heat conduction equation. To assess these schemes, transient response to a step function initial condition is considered. Due to parabolic nature of the heat equation, one can expect smooth and monotone solutions. It is shown, however in this paper, that regardless of the type of kernel function used and the size of smoothing radius, the double summation discretization form leads to non-physical oscillations which persist in the solution. Also, results show that when a second-order kernel derivative is used, a high-order kernel function shall be employed in such a way that the distance of inflection point from origin in the kernel function be less than the nearest particle distance. Otherwise, solutions may exhibit oscillations near discontinuities unlike the "difference scheme" which unconditionally produces monotone results.

Keywords: Heat conduction, Meshfree methods, Smoothed ParticleHydrodynamics (SPH), Second-order derivatives.

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Authors: E. Srinivasan, D. Ebenezer

Abstract:

Midpoint filter is quite effective in recovering the images confounded by the short-tailed (uniform) noise. It, however, performs poorly in the presence of additive long-tailed (impulse) noise and it does not preserve the edge structures of the image signals. Median smoother discards outliers (impulses) effectively, but it fails to provide adequate smoothing for images corrupted with nonimpulse noise. In this paper, two nonlinear techniques for image filtering, namely, New Filter I and New Filter II are proposed based on a nonlinear high-pass filter algorithm. New Filter I is constructed using a midpoint filter, a highpass filter and a combiner. It suppresses uniform noise quite well. New Filter II is configured using an alpha trimmed midpoint filter, a median smoother of window size 3x3, the high pass filter and the combiner. It is robust against impulse noise and attenuates uniform noise satisfactorily. Both the filters are shown to exhibit good response at the image boundaries (edges). The proposed filters are evaluated for their performance on a test image and the results obtained are included.

Keywords: Image filters, Midpoint filter, Nonlinear filters, Nonlinear highpass filter, Order-statistic filters, Rank-order filters.

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Authors: Mohamed H. S. Mohamed, Yang Xiao-zong, Liu Hong-wei, Wu Zhi-bo

Abstract:

The reliability of distributed systems and computer networks have been modeled by a probabilistic network or a graph G. Computing the residual connectedness reliability (RCR), denoted by R(G), under the node fault model is very useful, but is an NP-hard problem. Since it may need exponential time of the network size to compute the exact value of R(G), it is important to calculate its tight approximate value, especially its lower bound, at a moderate calculation time. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm for reliability lower bound of distributed systems with unreliable nodes. We also applied our algorithm to several typical classes of networks to evaluate the lower bounds and show the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Keywords: Distributed systems, probabilistic network, residual connectedness reliability, lower bound.

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Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

Abstract:

The transient analysis of a queuing system with fixed-size batch Poisson arrivals and a single server with exponential service times is presented. The focus of the paper is on the use of the functions that arise in the analysis of the transient behaviour of the queuing system. These functions are shown to be a generalization of the modified Bessel functions of the first kind, with the batch size B as the generalizing parameter. Results for the case of single-packet arrivals are obtained first. The similarities between the two families of functions are then used to obtain results for the general case of batch arrival queue with a batch size larger than one.

Keywords: batch arrivals, generalized Bessel functions, queuetransient analysis, time-varying probabilities.

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Authors: Poonam Garg, Aditya Shastri, D.C. Agarwal

Abstract:

With the exponential growth of networked system and application such as eCommerce, the demand for effective internet security is increasing. Cryptology is the science and study of systems for secret communication. It consists of two complementary fields of study: cryptography and cryptanalysis. The application of genetic algorithms in the cryptanalysis of knapsack ciphers is suggested by Spillman [7]. In order to improve the efficiency of genetic algorithm attack on knapsack cipher, the previously published attack was enhanced and re-implemented with variation of initial assumptions and results are compared with Spillman results. The experimental result of research indicates that the efficiency of genetic algorithm attack on knapsack cipher can be improved with variation of initial assumption.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Knapsack cipher, Key search.

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Authors: R. Nandikeswari, M. Sambasivam, V. Anandan

Abstract:

The present study investigates the length-weight relationship of Terapon jarbua from Puducherry (East coast of India). A total of 370 individuals of different sizes were collected from Puducherry landings centre. Length-weight relationships were calculated for all specimens sampled. The length weight relationship equations are W = 0.0050 L3.2742; W = 0.0035 L3.3616; W = 0.0736 L2.4076; W = 0.0098 L3.0807; W = 0.0088 L3.0914; W = 0.0038 L3.3776 for immature male, immature female, matured male, matured female, total male, and total female respectively. The growth exponential (b) values were found to be positively allometric for all the stages except matured male.

Keywords: Allometry, Length weight relationship, Puducherry waters, Terapon jarbua.

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Authors: Juha Korpijärvi, Jari Kortelainen

Abstract:

The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.

Keywords: Dynamic programming, Electric distribution system, Maintenance

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Authors: YasirSalih, AamirSaeed Malik, Wazirahbt.Md-Esa

Abstract:

In the recent years, high dynamic range imaging has gain popularity with the advancement in digital photography. In this contribution we present a subjective evaluation of various tone production and tone mapping techniques by a number of participants. Firstly, standard HDR images were used and the participants were asked to rate them based on a given rating scheme. After that, the participant was asked to rate HDR image generated using linear and nonlinear combination approach of multiple exposure images. The experimental results showed that linearly generated HDR images have better visualization than the nonlinear combined ones. In addition, Reinhard et al. and the exponential tone mapping operators have shown better results compared to logarithmic and the Garrett et al. tone mapping operators.

Keywords: tone mapping, high dynamic range, low dynamic range, bits per pixel.

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: Mohamed K. Metwally, Sherif H. El-Gohary, Kyung Min Byun, Seung Moo Han, Soo Yeol Lee, Min Hyoung Cho, Gon Khang, Jinsung Cho, Tae-Seong Kim

Abstract:

Photoacoustic imaging (PAI) is a non-invasive and non-ionizing imaging modality that combines the absorption contrast of light with ultrasound resolution. Laser is used to deposit optical energy into a target (i.e., optical fluence). Consequently, the target temperature rises, and then thermal expansion occurs that leads to generating a PA signal. In general, most image reconstruction algorithms for PAI assume uniform fluence within an imaging object. However, it is known that optical fluence distribution within the object is non-uniform. This could affect the reconstruction of PA images. In this study, we have investigated the influence of optical fluence distribution on PA back-propagation imaging using finite element method. The uniform fluence was simulated as a triangular waveform within the object of interest. The non-uniform fluence distribution was estimated by solving light propagation within a tissue model via Monte Carlo method. The results show that the PA signal in the case of non-uniform fluence is wider than the uniform case by 23%. The frequency spectrum of the PA signal due to the non-uniform fluence has missed some high frequency components in comparison to the uniform case. Consequently, the reconstructed image with the non-uniform fluence exhibits a strong smoothing effect.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Fluence Distribution, Monte Carlo Method, Photoacoustic Imaging.

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Authors: Yusuke Uchiyama, Hidetoshi Konno

Abstract:

We have investigated statistical properties of the defect turbulence in 1D CGLE wherein many body interaction is involved between local depressing wave (LDW) and local standing wave (LSW). It is shown that the counting number fluctuation of LDW is subject to the sub-Poisson statistics (SUBP). The physical origin of the SUBP can be ascribed to pair extinction of LDWs based on the master equation approach. It is also shown that the probability density function (pdf) of inter-LDW distance can be identified by the hyper gamma distribution. Assuming a superstatistics of the exponential distribution (Poisson configuration), a plausible explanation is given. It is shown further that the pdf of amplitude of LDW has a fattail. The underlying mechanism of its fluctuation is examined by introducing a generalized fractional Poisson configuration.

Keywords: sub-Poisson statistics, hyper gamma distribution, fractional Poisson configuration.

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Authors: Caigen Zhou, Haibo Jiang

Abstract:

The problem of robust fuzzy control for a class of nonlinear fuzzy impulsive singular perturbed systems with time-varying delay is investigated by employing Lyapunov functions. The nonlinear delay system is built based on the well-known T–S fuzzy model. The so-called parallel distributed compensation idea is employed to design the state feedback controller. Sufficient conditions for global exponential stability of the closed-loop system are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be easily solved by LMI technique. Some simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: T–S fuzzy model, singular perturbed systems, time-varying delay, robust control.

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Authors: Smarajit Ghosh , Karma Sonam Sherpa

Abstract:

This paper reports a new and accurate method for load-flow solution of radial distribution networks with minimum data preparation. The node and branch numbering need not to be sequential like other available methods. The proposed method does not need sending-node, receiving-node and branch numbers if these are sequential. The proposed method uses the simple equation to compute the voltage magnitude and has the capability to handle composite load modelling. The proposed method uses the set of nodes of feeder, lateral(s) and sub lateral(s). The effectiveness of the proposed method is compared with other methods using two examples. The detailed load-flow results for different kind of load-modellings are also presented.

Keywords: Load−flow, Feeder, Lateral, Power, Voltage, Composite, Exponential

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Authors: A. Marolleau, F. Salaun, D. Dupont, H. Gidik, S. Ducept.

Abstract:

The goal of this study is to analyze the hydric behaviour of textiles which can impact significantly the comfort of the wearer. Indeed, fabrics can be adapted for different climate if hydric and thermal behaviors are known. In this study, fabrics are only submitted to hydric variations. Sorption and desorption isotherms obtained from the dynamic vapour sorption apparatus (DVS) are fitted with the parallel exponential kinetics (PEK), the Hailwood-Horrobin (HH) and the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) models. One of the major finding is the relationship existing between PEK and HH models. During slow and fast processes, the sorption of water molecules on the polymer can be in monolayer and multilayer form. According to the BET model, moisture regain, a physical property of textiles, show a linear correlation with the total amount of water taken in monolayer. This study provides potential information of the end uses of these fabrics according to the selected activity level.

Keywords: Comfort, hydric properties, modelling, underwear.

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Authors: Yasuyuki Konishi, Masayoshi Kobayashi

Abstract:

Six parameters, the effective diffusivity (De), activation energy of De, pre-exponential factor of De, amount (ASOW) of self-organized water species, and amplitude (α) of the forced oscillation of the molecular mobility (1/tC) derived from the forced cyclic temperature change operation, were characterized by using six typical foods, squid, sardines, scallops, salmon, beef, and pork, as a function of the correlation time (tC) of the water molecule-s proton retained in the foods. Each of the six parameters was clearly divided into the water species A1 and A2 at a specified value of tC =10-8s (=CtC), indicating an anomalous change in the physicochemical nature of the water species at the CtC. The forced oscillation of 1/tC clearly demonstrated a characteristic mode depending on the food shown as a three dimensional map associated with 1/tC, the amount of self-organized water, and tC.

Keywords: molecular mobility, self-organization, hysteresis, water species A1 and A2, forced cyclic temperature change operation (FCTCO)

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Authors: Débora V. Busman, Venerando E. Amaro, Mattheus da C. Prudêncio

Abstract:

Prognostic studies of the shoreline are of utmost importance for Ponta Negra Beach, located in Natal, Northeastern Brazil, where the infrastructure recently built along the shoreline is severely affected by flooding and erosion. This study compares shoreline predictions using three linear regression methods (LMS, LRR and WLR) and tries to discern the best method for different shoreline position scenarios. The methods have shown erosion on the beach in each of the scenarios tested, even in less intense dynamic conditions. The WLA_A with confidence interval of 95% was the well-adjusted model and calculated a retreat of -1.25 m/yr to -2.0 m/yr in hot spot areas. The change of the shoreline on Ponta Negra Beach can be measured as a negative exponential curve. Analysis of these methods has shown a correlation with the morphodynamic stage of the beach.

Keywords: Coastal Erosion, Prognostic Model, DSAS.

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Authors: Hamed Sabahno

Abstract:

In this paper, an inventory model with finite and constant replenishment rate, price dependant demand rate, time value of money and inflation, finite time horizon, lead time and exponential deterioration rate and with the objective of maximizing the present worth of the total system profit is developed. Using a dynamic programming based solution algorithm, the optimal sequence of the cycles can be found and also different optimal selling prices, optimal order quantities and optimal maximum inventories can be obtained for the cycles with unequal lengths, which have never been done before for this model. Also, a numerical example is used to show accuracy of the solution procedure.

Keywords: Deteriorating items, Dynamic programming, Finitereplenishment rate, Inventory control, Operation Research.

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Authors: Ahmad Zahran, Ahmed Herzallah, Ahmad Ahmad, Mahran Quraan

Abstract:

Generation of high DC voltages is necessary for testing the insulation material of high voltage AC transmission lines with long lengths. The harmonic and ripple contents of the output DC voltage supplied by high voltage DC circuits require the use of costly capacitors to smooth the output voltage after rectification. This paper proposes a new modular multiplier high voltage DC generator with embedded Cockcroft-Walton circuits that achieve a negligible harmonic and ripple contents of the output DC voltage without the need for costly filters to produce a nearly constant output voltage. In this new topology, Cockcroft-Walton modules are connected in series to produce a high DC output voltage. The modules are supplied by low input AC voltage sources that have the same magnitude and frequency and shifted from each other by a certain angle to eliminate the harmonics from the output voltage. The small ripple factor is provided by the smoothing column capacitors and the phase shifted input voltages of the cascaded modules. The constituent harmonics within each module are determined using Fourier analysis. The viability of the proposed DC generator for testing purposes and the effectiveness of the cascaded connection are confirmed by numerical simulations using MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: Cockcroft-Walton circuit, Harmonics, Ripple factor, HVDC generator.

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Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol

Abstract:

The paper considers a single-server queue with fixedsize batch Poisson arrivals and exponential service times, a model that is useful for a buffer that accepts messages arriving as fixed size batches of packets and releases them one packet at time. Transient performance measures for queues have long been recognized as being complementary to the steady-state analysis. The focus of the paper is on the use of the functions that arise in the analysis of the transient behaviour of the queuing system. The paper exploits practical modelling to obtain a solution to the integral equation encountered in the analysis. Results obtained indicate that under heavy load conditions, there is significant disparity in the statistics between the transient and steady state values.

Keywords: batch arrivals, modelling, single-server queue, time-varying probabilities, transient analysis.

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Authors: O. Hasançebi, S. Kazemzadeh Azad

Abstract:

In the present study the efficiency of Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) algorithm is investigated in discrete structural design optimization. It is shown that a standard version of the BB-BC algorithm is sometimes unable to produce reasonable solutions to problems from discrete structural design optimization. Two reformulations of the algorithm, which are referred to as modified BB-BC (MBB-BC) and exponential BB-BC (EBB-BC), are introduced to enhance the capability of the standard algorithm in locating good solutions for steel truss and frame type structures, respectively. The performances of the proposed algorithms are experimented and compared to its standard version as well as some other algorithms over several practical design examples. In these examples, steel structures are sized for minimum weight subject to stress, stability and displacement limitations according to the provisions of AISC-ASD.

Keywords: Structural optimization, discrete optimization, metaheuristics, big bang-big crunch (BB-BC) algorithm, design optimization of steel trusses and frames.

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Authors: Felix Che Shu

Abstract:

We give an explicit formula for the general solution of a one dimensional linear delay differential equation with multiple delays, which are integer multiples of the smallest delay. For an equation of this class with two delays, we derive two equations with single delays, whose stability is sufficient for the stability of the equation with two delays. This presents a new approach to the study of the stability of such systems. This approach avoids requirement of the knowledge of the location of the characteristic roots of the equation with multiple delays which are generally more difficult to determine, compared to the location of the characteristic roots of equations with a single delay.

Keywords: Delay Differential Equation, Explicit Solution, Exponential Stability, Lyapunov Exponents, Multiple Delays.

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Authors: Shahid M. Khan, Muhammad H. Sayyad

Abstract:

An organic bulk heterojunction (BHJ) was fabricated using a blended film containing Copper (II) tetrakis(4-acumylphenoxy) phthalocyanine (Tc-CuPc) along with [6,6]-Phenyl C61 butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM). Weight ratio between Tc-CuPc and PCBM was 1:1. The electrical properties of Tc-CuPc: PCBM BHJ were examined. Rectifying nature of the BHJ was displayed by current-voltage (I-V) curves, recorded in dark and at various temperatures. At low voltages, conduction was ohmic succeeded by space-charge limiting current (SCLC) conduction at higher voltages in which exponential trap distribution was dominant. Series resistance, shunt resistance, ideality factor, effective barrier height and mobility at room temperature were found to be 526 4, 482 k4, 3.7, 0.17 eV and 2×10-7 cm2V-1s-1 respectively. Temperature effect towards different BHJ parameters was observed under dark condition.

Keywords: Bulk heterojunction, PCBM, phthalocyanine, spin coating.

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Authors: A. Kurşun, E. Kara, E. Çetin, Ş. Aksoy, A. Kesimli

Abstract:

In this study, thermal elastic stress distribution occurred on long hollow cylinders made of functionally graded material (FGM) was analytically defined under thermal, mechanical and thermo mechanical loads. In closed form solutions for elastic stresses and displacements are obtained analytically by using the infinitesimal deformation theory of elasticity. It was assumed that elasticity modulus, thermal expansion coefficient and density of cylinder materials could change in terms of an exponential function as for that Poisson’s ratio was constant. A gradient parameter n is chosen between - 1 and 1. When n equals to zero, the disc becomes isotropic. Circumferential, radial and longitudinal stresses in the FGMs cylinders are depicted in the figures. As a result, the gradient parameters have great effects on the stress systems of FGMs cylinders.

Keywords: Functionally graded materials, hollow cylinder, thermoelasticity, thermomechanical load.

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Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

Abstract:

A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: Expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms.

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