A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.<\/p>\r\n","references":"[1]\tLarsen, M. C., Simon, A., 1993. A rainfall intensity-duration threshold for landslides in a humid-tropical environment, Puerto Rico. Geografiska Annaler Series A 75 A (1\u20132), 13\u201323.\r\n[2]\tLin, M. L., Jeng, F. S., 2000. Characteristics of hazards induced by extremely heavy rainfall in Central Taiwan-Typhoon Herb. Engineering Geology 58, 191\u2013207.\r\n[3]\tWang Y., C ao Z and Au S-K., 2010, Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation of parameter sensitivity in probabilistic slope stability analysis, Computers and Geotechnics, Vol. 37, 7- 8, pp. 1015-1022.\r\n[4]\tLari S., Frattini P. and Crosta G. B., 2014, A probabilistic approach for landslide hazard analysis, Engineering Geology, Vol. 182 part A, 19, pp. 3-14.\r\n[5]\tZhang J., Huang H. W., Zhang L: M., Zhu H. H. and Shi B., 2014. Probabilistic prediction of rainfall-induced slope failure using a mechanics-based model, Engineering Geology, Vol. 168, 16, Pp. 129\u2013140.\r\n[6]\tLulu Z., 2005, Probabilistic study of slope stability under rainfall condition. Ph.D. Civil Engineering Thesis, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Hong Kong. \r\n[7]\tTarolli P., Borga M., Chang K. T. and Chiang S-H., 2011, Modelling shallow landsliding susceptibility by incorporating heavy rainfall statistical properties. Geomorfology, 133 (3-4), pp. 199-211.\r\n[8]\tFredlund D., 2007. Slope stability hazard management systems, Journal of Zhejiang University: Science, Vol. 8, pp. 1879-2040. Zhejiang University Press.\r\n[9]\tWhite J. A. and Singham D. I. 2012. Slope Stability Assessment using Stochastic Rainfall Simulation, Vol. 9, pp. 699\u2013706, Proceedings of the International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2012. \r\n[10]\tAlcantara-Ayala, I. 2004. Hazard assessment of rainfall induced landsliding in Mexico, Geomorphology 61, 19-40.\r\n[11]\tAlcantara-Ayala, I. 2008, On the historical account of disastrous landslides in Mexico: the challenge of risk management and disaster prevention. Adv. Geosci., 14, 159-164.\r\n[12]\tRahardjo H. and Fredlund D. G. 1984. General limit equilibrium method for lateral earth force. Canadian Geotechnical Journal 21 (1), pp. 166-175.\r\n[13]\tVanapalli S. K., Fredlund D. G., Pufahi D. E. and Clifton A. W. 1996. Model for the prediction of shear strength with respect to soil suction. Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1996, 33(3), pp. 379-392.\r\n[14]\tThe SoilVision Systems Ltd. Team, 2017, SVOFFICE 5 Help Manual, Canada.\r\n[15]\tAng, A. and De Leon, D. 2005. Modeling and Analysis of Uncertainties for Risk-Informed Decision in Infrastructures Engineering, Journal of Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol.1, No. 1, pp. 19-31.\r\n[16]\tLind N. C. y Davenport A. G. 1972. Towards practical application of Structural Reliability Theory\u201d, ACI Publication SP- 31, Probabilistic Design of Reinforced Concrete Buildings, Detroit, Mich., pp. 63-110.\r\n[17]\tRosenblueth, E., (1982). \u201cInformation value in certain class of problems\u201d (In Spanish), Internal Report 448, Instituto de Ingenier\u00eda, UNAM, Mexico.","publisher":"World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology","index":"Open Science Index 135, 2018"}