Search results for: Numerical Model

Authors: Po-Jen Su, Huann-Ming Chou

Abstract:

In this article, we used the residual correction method to deal with transient thermoelastic problems with a hollow spherical region when the continuum medium possesses spherically isotropic thermoelastic properties. Based on linear thermoelastic theory, the equations of hyperbolic heat conduction and thermoelastic motion were combined to establish the thermoelastic dynamic model with consideration of the deformation acceleration effect and non-Fourier effect under the condition of transient thermal shock. The approximate solutions of temperature and displacement distributions are obtained using the residual correction method based on the maximum principle in combination with the finite difference method, making it easier and faster to obtain upper and lower approximations of exact solutions. The proposed method is found to be an effective numerical method with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the result shows that the effect of transient thermal shock induced by deformation acceleration is enhanced by non-Fourier heat conduction with increased peak stress. The influence on the stress increases with the thermal relaxation time.

Keywords: Maximum principle, non-Fourier heat conduction, residual correction method, thermo-elastic response.

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Authors: Giulio Mangano, Alberto De Marco, Giovanni Zenezini

Abstract:

The concept of City Logistics (CL) has emerged to improve the impacts of last mile freight distribution in urban areas. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model exploring the dynamics of the diffusion of a ICT platform for CL management across different populations is proposed. For the development of the model two sources have been used. On the one hand, the major diffusion variables and feedback loops are derived from a literature review of existing diffusion models. On the other hand, the parameters are represented by the value propositions delivered by the platform as a response to some of the users’ needs. To extract the most important value propositions the Business Model Canvas approach has been used. Such approach in fact focuses on understanding how a company can create value for her target customers. These variables and parameters are thus translated into a SD diffusion model with three different populations namely municipalities, logistics service providers, and own account carriers. Results show that, the three populations under analysis fully adopt the platform within the simulation time frame, highlighting a strong demand by different stakeholders for CL projects aiming at carrying out more efficient urban logistics operations.

Keywords: City logistics, simulation, system dynamics, business model.

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Authors: Dipti Patra, Mridula J

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new image segmentation approach for colour textured images. The proposed method for image segmentation consists of two stages. In the first stage, textural features using gray level co-occurrence matrix(GLCM) are computed for regions of interest (ROI) considered for each class. ROI acts as ground truth for the classes. Ohta model (I1, I2, I3) is the colour model used for segmentation. Statistical mean feature at certain inter pixel distance (IPD) of I2 component was considered to be the optimized textural feature for further segmentation. In the second stage, the feature matrix obtained is assumed to be the degraded version of the image labels and modeled as Markov Random Field (MRF) model to model the unknown image labels. The labels are estimated through maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation criterion using ICM algorithm. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with that of the existing schemes, JSEG and another scheme which uses GLCM and MRF in RGB colour space. The proposed method is found to be outperforming the existing ones in terms of segmentation accuracy with acceptable rate of convergence. The results are validated with synthetic and real textured images.

Keywords: Texture Image Segmentation, Gray Level Cooccurrence Matrix, Markov Random Field Model, Ohta colour space, ICM algorithm.

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Authors: Padmakumar S., Vivek Agarwal, Kallol Roy

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A model based fault detection and diagnosis technique for DC motor is proposed in this paper. Fault detection using Kalman filter and its different variants are compared. Only incipient faults are considered for the study. The Kalman Filter iterations and all the related computations required for fault detection and fault confirmation are presented. A second order linear state space model of DC motor is used for this work. A comparative assessment of the estimates computed from four different observers and their relative performance is evaluated.

Keywords: DC motor model, Fault detection and diagnosis Kalman Filter, Unscented Kalman Filter

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Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

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In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Kenji Shimoda, Hitoshi Takata

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This paper presents a method of model selection and identification of Hammerstein systems by hybridization of the genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). An unknown nonlinear static part to be estimated is approximately represented by an automatic choosing function (ACF) model. The weighting parameters of the ACF and the system parameters of the linear dynamic part are estimated by the linear least-squares method. On the other hand, the adjusting parameters of the ACF model structure are properly selected by the hybrid algorithm of the GA and PSO, where the Akaike information criterion is utilized as the evaluation value function. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid algorithm.

Keywords: Hammerstein system, identification, automatic choosing function model, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: M. Abouelatta, A. Shaker, M. El-Banna, G. T. Sayah, C. Gontrand, A. Zekry

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In this paper, a methodology for physically modeling the intrinsic MOS part and the drift region of the n-channel Laterally Double-diffused MOSFET (LDMOS) is presented. The basic physical effects like velocity saturation, mobility reduction, and nonuniform impurity concentration in the channel are taken into consideration. The analytical model is implemented using MATLAB. A comparison of the simulations from technology computer aided design (TCAD) and that from the proposed analytical model, at room temperature, shows a satisfactory accuracy which is less than 5% for the whole voltage domain.

Keywords: LDMOS, MATLAB, RESURF, modeling, TCAD.

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Authors: Andre A. Keller

Abstract:

The optimal control is one of the possible controllers for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method . Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time. This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm. A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model of Goodwin.

Keywords: fuzzy control, macroeconomic model, multiplier - accelerator, nonlinear accelerator, stabilization policy.

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Authors: B. Ghanbarian-Alavijeh, A.M. Liaghat, S. Sohrabi

Abstract:

Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks (NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density, van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r θ , α , and n) as well as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s θ is saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point. Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method (2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).

Keywords: Neural network, Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Soil physical properties.

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Authors: Syahril Ridzuan Ab Rahim, Ibrahim Ahmad, Mohd Azizi Chik, Ahmad Zafir Md. Rejab, and U. Hashim

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This research presents the development of simulation modeling for WIP management in semiconductor fabrication. Manufacturing simulation modeling is needed for productivity optimization analysis due to the complex process flows involved more than 35 percent re-entrance processing steps more than 15 times at same equipment. Furthermore, semiconductor fabrication required to produce high product mixed with total processing steps varies from 300 to 800 steps and cycle time between 30 to 70 days. Besides the complexity, expansive wafer cost that potentially impact the company profits margin once miss due date is another motivation to explore options to experiment any analysis using simulation modeling. In this paper, the simulation model is developed using existing commercial software platform AutoSched AP, with customized integration with Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES) and Advanced Productivity Family (APF) for data collections used to configure the model parameters and data source. Model parameters such as processing steps cycle time, equipment performance, handling time, efficiency of operator are collected through this customization. Once the parameters are validated, few customizations are made to ensure the prior model is executed. The accuracy for the simulation model is validated with the actual output per day for all equipments. The comparison analysis from result of the simulation model compared to actual for achieved 95 percent accuracy for 30 days. This model later was used to perform various what if analysis to understand impacts on cycle time and overall output. By using this simulation model, complex manufacturing environment like semiconductor fabrication (fab) now have alternative source of validation for any new requirements impact analysis.

Keywords: Advanced Productivity Family (APF), Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS), Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES), Work In Progress (WIP).

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Authors: Syerina Azlin Md Nasir, Nor Laila Md Noor, Suriyati Razali

Abstract:

The growing interest on national heritage preservation has led to intensive efforts on digital documentation of cultural heritage knowledge. Encapsulated within this effort is the focus on ontology development that will help facilitate the organization and retrieval of the knowledge. Ontologies surrounding cultural heritage domain are related to archives, museum and library information such as archaeology, artifacts, paintings, etc. The growth in number and size of ontologies indicates the well acceptance of its semantic enrichment in many emerging applications. Nowadays, there are many heritage information systems available for access. Among others is community-based e-museum designed to support the digital cultural heritage preservation. This work extends previous effort of developing the Traditional Malay Textile (TMT) Knowledge Model where the model is designed with the intention of auxiliary mapping with CIDOC CRM. Due to its internal constraints, the model needs to be transformed in advance. This paper addresses the issue by reviewing the previous harmonization works with CIDOC CRM as exemplars in refining the facets in the model particularly involving TMT-Artifact class. The result is an extensible model which could lead to a common view for automated mapping with CIDOC CRM. Hence, it promotes integration and exchange of textile information especially batik-related between communities in e-museum applications.

Keywords: automated mapping, cultural heritage, knowledgemodel, textile practice

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Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam

Abstract:

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.

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Authors: Sunho Ki, Daehwan Kim, Seongwon Cho, Sun-Tae Chung, Jaemin Kim, Yun-Kwang Hong, Chang Joon Park, Dongmin Kwon, Minhee Kang, Yusung Kim, Younghan Yoon

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AAM (active appearance model) has been successfully applied to face and facial feature localization. However, its performance is sensitive to initial parameter values. In this paper, we propose a two-stage AAM for robust face alignment, which first fits an inner face-AAM model to the inner facial feature points of the face and then localizes the whole face and facial features by optimizing the whole face-AAM model parameters. Experiments show that the proposed face alignment method using two-stage AAM is more reliable to the background and the head pose than the standard AAM-based face alignment method.

Keywords: AAM, Face Alignment, Feature Extraction, PCA

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Authors: Weerachi Sarakorn, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS is developed. In addition to dividing the population into susceptible (high and low risk), exposed, infected, quarantined, diagnosed and recovered classes, we have included a class called untraced. The model simulates the Gompertz curves which are the best representation of the cumulative numbers of probable SARS cases in Hong Kong and Singapore. The values of the parameters in the model which produces the best fit of the observed data for each city are obtained by using a differential evolution algorithm. It is seen that the values for the parameters needed to simulate the observed daily behaviors of the two epidemics are different.

Keywords: SARS, mathematical modelling, differential evolution algorithm.

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Authors: N. Manavizadeh , M. Rabbani , H. Sotudian , F. Jolai

Abstract:

Mixed Model Production is the practice of assembling several distinct and different models of a product on the same assembly line without changeovers and then sequencing those models in a way that smoothes the demand for upstream components. In this paper, we consider an objective function which minimizes total stoppage time and total idle time and it is presented sequence dependent set up time. Many studies have been done on the mixed model assembly lines. But in this paper we specifically focused on reducing the idle times. This is possible through various help policies. For improving the solutions, some cases developed and about 40 tests problem was considered. We use scatter search for optimization and for showing the efficiency of our algorithm, experimental results shows behavior of method. Scatter search and help policies can produce high quality answers, so it has been used in this paper.

Keywords: mixed model assembly lines, Scatter search, help policies, idle time, Stoppage time

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Authors: Mahnaz Mahmoudi Zarandi (Qazvin Islamic Azad University)

Abstract:

wind catchers have been served as a cooling system, used to provide acceptable ventilation by means of renewable energy of wind. In the present study, the city of Yazd in arid climate is selected as case study. From the architecture point of view, learning about wind catchers in this study is done by means of field surveys. Research method for selection of the case is based on random form, and analytical method. Wind catcher typology and knowledge of relationship governing the wind catcher's architecture were those measures that are taken for the first time. 53 wind catchers were analyzed. The typology of the wind-catchers is done by the physical analyzing, patterns and common concepts as incorporated in them. How the architecture of wind catcher can influence their operations by analyzing thermal behavior are the archetypes of selected wind catchers. Calculating fluids dynamics science, fluent software and numerical analysis are used in this study as the most accurate analytical approach. The results obtained from these analyses show the formal specifications of wind catchers with optimum operation in Yazd. The knowledge obtained from the optimum model could be used for design and construction of wind catchers with more improved operation

Keywords: Fluent Software, Iranian architecture, wind catcher

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Authors: Jia-Ming Kok, Javaan Chahl

Abstract:

An optimisation method using both global and local optimisation is implemented to determine the flapping profile which will produce the most lift for an experimental wing-actuation system. The optimisation method is tested using a numerical quasi-steady analysis. Results of an optimised flapping profile show a 20% increase in lift generated as compared to flapping profiles obtained by high speed cinematography of a Sympetrum frequens dragonfly. Initial optimisation procedures showed 3166 objective function evaluations. The global optimisation parameters - initial sample size and stage one sample size, were altered to reduce the number of function evaluations. Altering the stage one sample size had no significant effect. It was found that reducing the initial sample size to 400 would allow a reduction in computational effort to approximately 1500 function evaluations without compromising the global solvers ability to locate potential minima. To further reduce the optimisation effort required, we increase the local solver’s convergence tolerance criterion. An increase in the tolerance from 0.02N to 0.05N decreased the number of function evaluations by another 20%. However, this potentially reduces the maximum obtainable lift by up to 0.025N.

Keywords: Flapping wing, Optimisation, Quasi-steady model.

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Authors: Mehdi Kheradmand, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, Abdolreza Zahiri, Khalil Ghorbani

Abstract:

In modeling phenomena, the presence of local conditions may cause the use of a general relation not to produce good results and thus fail to demonstrate local changes. If possible, identifying homogenous limits and providing simple linear relations for each of these limits will increase the accuracy of models. Accordingly, the models are divided into simpler and smaller problems to solve complicated problems, and the obtained answers will be combined. This simple idea can be applied to decision tree models. For this aim, the input data values are divided into several sub-intervals or sub-regions, and an appropriate model is extracted for an appropriate model or equation. This research proposes the M5 decision tree method as a solution to accurately compute the flow discharge in meandering compound channels.

Keywords: Stage-discharge relationship, decision tree, M5 decision tree model, meandering compound channels.

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Authors: P. D. Pastuszak

Abstract:

The present work is devoted to thermographic studies of curved composite panels (unidirectional GFRP) with subsurface defects. Various artificial defects, created by inserting PTFE stripe between individual layers of a laminate during manufacturing stage are studied. The analysis is conducted both with the use finite element method and experiments. To simulate transient heat transfer in 3D model with embedded various defect sizes, the ANSYS package is used. Pulsed Thermography combined with optical excitation source provides good results for flat surfaces. Composite structures are mostly used in complex components, e.g., pipes, corners and stiffeners. Local decrease of mechanical properties in these regions can have significant influence on strength decrease of the entire structure. Application of active procedures of thermography to defect detection and evaluation in this type of elements seems to be more appropriate that other NDT techniques. Nevertheless, there are various uncertainties connected with correct interpretation of acquired data. In this paper, important factors concerning Infrared Thermography measurements of curved surfaces in the form of cylindrical panels are considered. In addition, temperature effects on the surface resulting from complex geometry and embedded and real defect are also presented.

Keywords: Active thermography, finite element analysis, composite, curved structures, defects.

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Authors: Rida B. Arieby, Hameed N. Hameed

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In this work, tensile tests on high density polyethylene have been carried out under various constant strain rate and strain rate jump tests. The dependency of the true stress and specially the variation of volume strain have been investigated, the volume strain due to the phenomena of damage was determined in real time during the tests by an optical extensometer called Videotraction. A modified constitutive equations, including strain rate and damage effects, are proposed, such a model is based on a non-equilibrium thermodynamic approach called (DNLR). The ability of the model to predict the complex nonlinear response of this polymer is examined by comparing the model simulation with the available experimental data, which demonstrate that this model can represent the deformation behavior of the polymer reasonably well.

Keywords: Strain rate jump tests, Volume Strain, High Density Polyethylene, Large strain, Thermodynamics approach.

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Authors: L. Yettou

Abstract:

In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by ⁶³Cu(n,xp) and ⁶⁵Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.

Keywords: Preequilibrium models, level density, level density a-parameter, 63Cu(n, xp) and 65Cu(n, xp) reactions.

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Authors: Ali Serhan Koyuncugil, Nermin Ozgulbas

Abstract:

In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).

Keywords: Risk Management, Financial Risk, Operational Risk, Financial Early Warning System, Data Mining, CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm, SMEs.

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Authors: Minghui Wang, Shanrui Hu

Abstract:

An inverse problem of doubly center matrices is discussed. By translating the constrained problem into unconstrained problem, two iterative methods are proposed. A numerical example illustrate our algorithms.

Keywords: doubly center matrix, electric network theory, iterative methods, least-square problem.

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Authors: Himanshu V. Gajjar, Anish H. Gandhi, Harit K. Raval

Abstract:

Air bending is one of the important metal forming processes, because of its simplicity and large field application. Accuracy of analytical and empirical models reported for the analysis of bending processes is governed by simplifying assumption and do not consider the effect of dynamic parameters. Number of researches is reported on the finite element analysis (FEA) of V-bending, Ubending, and air V-bending processes. FEA of bending is found to be very sensitive to many physical and numerical parameters. FE models must be computationally efficient for practical use. Reported work shows the 3D FEA of air bending process using Hyperform LSDYNA and its comparison with, published 3D FEA results of air bending in Ansys LS-DYNA and experimental results. Observing the planer symmetry and based on the assumption of plane strain condition, air bending problem was modeled in 2D with symmetric boundary condition in width. Stress-strain results of 2D FEA were compared with 3D FEA results and experiments. Simplification of air bending problem from 3D to 2D resulted into tremendous reduction in the solution time with only marginal effect on stressstrain results. FE model simplification by studying the problem symmetry is more efficient and practical approach for solution of more complex large dimensions slow forming processes.

Keywords: Air V-bending, Finite element analysis, HyperformLS-DYNA, Planner symmetry.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, A. L. Ho, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to analyze the load rejection transient of ABWR by using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes. This study has some steps. First, using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes establish the model of ABWR. Second, the key parameters are identified to refine the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model further in the frame of a steady state analysis. Third, the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model is used to perform the load rejection transient analysis. Finally, the FSAR data are used to compare with the analysis results. The results of TRACE/PARCS are consistent with the FSAR data for the important parameters. It indicates that the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model of ABWR has a good accuracy in the load rejection transient.

Keywords: ABWR, TRACE, PARCS, SNAP.

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Authors: Guo Xiuhua, Sun Tao, Wu Haifeng, He Wen, Liang Zhigang, Zhang Mengxia, Guo Aimin, Wang Wei

Abstract:

Purpose: To explore the use of Curvelet transform to extract texture features of pulmonary nodules in CT image and support vector machine to establish prediction model of small solitary pulmonary nodules in order to promote the ratio of detection and diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer. Methods: 2461 benign or malignant small solitary pulmonary nodules in CT image from 129 patients were collected. Fourteen Curvelet transform textural features were as parameters to establish support vector machine prediction model. Results: Compared with other methods, using 252 texture features as parameters to establish prediction model is more proper. And the classification consistency, sensitivity and specificity for the model are 81.5%, 93.8% and 38.0% respectively. Conclusion: Based on texture features extracted from Curvelet transform, support vector machine prediction model is sensitive to lung cancer, which can promote the rate of diagnosis for early-stage lung cancer to some extent.

Keywords: CT image, Curvelet transform, Small pulmonary nodules, Support vector machines, Texture extraction.

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Authors: M. A. Meslem

Abstract:

For precise geoid determination, we use a reference field to subtract long and medium wavelength of the gravity field from observations data when we use the remove-compute-restore technique. Therefore, a comparison study between considered models should be made in order to select the optimal reference gravity field to be used. In this context, two recent global geopotential models have been selected to perform this comparison study over Northern Algeria. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM2008) and the Global Gravity Model (GECO) conceived with a combination of the first model with anomalous potential derived from a GOCE satellite-only global model. Free air gravity anomalies in the area under study have been used to compute residual data using both gravity field models and a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to subtract the residual terrain effect from the gravity observations. Residual data were used to generate local empirical covariance functions and their fitting to the closed form in order to compare their statistical behaviors according to both cases. Finally, height anomalies were computed from both geopotential models and compared to a set of GPS levelled points on benchmarks using least squares adjustment. The result described in details in this paper regarding these two models has pointed out a slight advantage of GECO global model globally through error degree variances comparison and ground-truth evaluation.

Keywords: Quasigeoid, gravity anomalies, covariance, GGM.

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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Authors: Kyung Jin Ryu, MakhsudaJuraeva, Sang-Hyun Jeongand Dong Joo Song

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Clean air in subway station is important to passengers. The Platform Screen Doors (PSDs) can improve indoor air quality in the subway station; however the air quality in the subway tunnel is degraded. The subway tunnel has high CO2 concentration and indoor particulate matter (PM) value. The Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) level in subway environment degrades by increasing the frequency of the train operation and the number of the train. The ventilation systems of the subway tunnel need improvements to have better air-quality. Numerical analyses might be effective tools to analyze the performance of subway twin-track tunnel ventilation systems. An existing subway twin-track tunnel in the metropolitan Seoul subway system is chosen for the numerical simulations. The ANSYS CFX software is used for unsteady computations of the airflow inside the twin-track tunnel when the train moves. The airflow inside the tunnel is simulated when one train runs and two trains run at the same time in the tunnel. The piston-effect inside the tunnel is analyzed when all shafts function as the natural ventilation shaft. The supplied air through the shafts is mixed with the pollutant air in the tunnel. The pollutant air is exhausted by the mechanical ventilation shafts. The supplied and discharged airs are balanced when only one train runs in the twin-track tunnel. The pollutant air in the tunnel is high when two trains run simultaneously in opposite direction and all shafts functioned as the natural shaft cases when there are no electrical power supplies in the shafts. The remained pollutant air inside the tunnel enters into the station platform when the doors are opened.

Keywords: indoor air quality, subway twin-track tunnel, train-induced wind

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Authors: Akira Kanaoka, Eiji Okamoto

Abstract:

Mass-mail type worms have threatened to become a large problem for the Internet. Although many researchers have analyzed such worms, there are few studies that consider worm propagation via mailing lists. In this paper, we present a mass-mailing type worm propagation model including the mailing list effect on the propagation. We study its propagation by simulation with a real e¬mail social network model. We show that the impact of the mailing list on the mass-mail worm propagation is significant, even if the mailing list is not large.

Keywords: Malware, simulation, complex networks

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