Search results for: Analysis of delays

Authors: Amjad Abdullah, Amjad Yahya, Bushra Aljohani, Amani S. Alghamdi

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Change point detection is an important part of data analysis. The presence of a change point refers to a significant change in the behavior of a time series. In this article, we examine the detection of multiple change points of parameters of the exponential Lomax distribution, which is broad and flexible compared with other distributions while fitting data. We used the Schwarz information criterion and binary segmentation to detect multiple change points in publicly available data on the average temperature in the ozone layer. The change points were successfully located.

Keywords: Binary segmentation, change point, exponential Lomax distribution, information criterion.

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Authors: Hafeez Syed, Harit Naik

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Reservoirs with high pressures and temperatures (HPHT) that were considered to be atypical in the past are now frequent targets for exploration. For downhole oilfield drilling tools and components, the temperature and pressure affect the mechanical strength. To address this issue, a finite element analysis (FEA) for 206.84 MPa (30 ksi) pressure and 165°C has been performed on the pressure housing of the measurement-while-drilling/logging-whiledrilling (MWD/LWD) density tool. The density tool is a MWD/LWD sensor that measures the density of the formation. One of the components of the density tool is the pressure housing that is positioned in the tool. The FEA results are compared with the experimental test performed on the pressure housing of the density tool. Past results show a close match between the numerical results and the experimental test. This FEA model can be used for extreme HPHT and ultra HPHT analyses, and/or optimal design changes.

Keywords: FEA, HPHT, M/LWD, Oil & Gas

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Authors: Vu Ngoc Pi

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This paper presents a new study on the applications of optimization and regression analysis techniques for optimal calculation of partial ratios of four-step helical gearboxes for getting minimal gearbox length. In the paper, basing on the moment equilibrium condition of a mechanic system including four gear units and their regular resistance condition, models for determination of the partial ratios of the gearboxes are proposed. In particular, explicit models for calculation of the partial ratios are proposed by using regression analysis. Using these models, the determination of the partial ratios is accurate and simple.

Keywords: Gearbox design; optimal design; helical gearbox, transmission ratio.

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Authors: Dhruv Sharma, Lynne Blair, Stephen Clune

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Later life loneliness is a social issue that is increasing alongside an upward global population trend. As a society, one way that we have responded to this social challenge is through developing non-pharmacological interventions such as befriending services, activity clubs, meet-ups, etc. Through a systematic literature review, this paper suggests that currently there is an underrepresentation of radical innovation, and underutilization of digital technologies in developing loneliness interventions for older adults. This paper examines intervention studies that were published in English language, within peer reviewed journals between January 2005 and December 2014 across 4 electronic databases. In addition to academic databases, interventions found in grey literature in the form of websites, blogs, and Twitter were also included in the overall review. This approach yielded 129 interventions that were included in the study. A systematic approach allowed the minimization of any bias dictating the selection of interventions to study. A coding strategy based on a pattern analysis approach was devised to be able to compare and contrast the loneliness interventions. Firstly, interventions were categorized on the basis of their objective to identify whether they were preventative, supportive, or remedial in nature. Secondly, depending on their scope, they were categorized as one-to-one, community-based, or group based. It was also ascertained whether interventions represented an improvement, an incremental innovation, a major advance or a radical departure, in comparison to the most basic form of a loneliness intervention. Finally, interventions were also assessed on the basis of the extent to which they utilized digital technologies. Individual visualizations representing the four levels of coding were created for each intervention, followed by an aggregated visual to facilitate analysis. To keep the inquiry within scope and to present a coherent view of the findings, the analysis was primarily concerned the level of innovation, and the use of digital technologies. This analysis highlights a weak but positive correlation between the level of innovation and the use of digital technologies in designing and deploying loneliness interventions, and also emphasizes how certain existing interventions could be tweaked to enable their migration from representing incremental innovation to radical innovation for example. This analysis also points out the value of including grey literature, especially from Twitter, in systematic literature reviews to get a contemporary view of latest work in the area under investigation.

Keywords: Loneliness, ageing, innovation, digital.

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Authors: Salah Gariani, Taher Dao, Khaled Jegandi

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Wiper inserts are widely used nowadays, particularly in turning and milling operations, due to their unique geometric characteristics that generate superb surface finish and improve productivity. Wiper inserts can produce double the feed rate while preserving comparable surface roughness compared to that produced by conventional cutting tools. This paper reports an experimental investigation of surface quality generated in the precision dry turning of 6060 Aluminium alloy using conventional and wiper inserts at different cutting conditions. The Taguchi L9 array, Analysis of Means (AOM) and variance (ANOVA) were employed in the development of the experimental design and to optimise the process parameter identified: average surface roughness (Ra). The experimental results show that the wiper inserts substantially improved the surface quality of the machined samples by a factor of two compared to those for the conventional insert under all cutting conditions. The ANOVA and AOM analysis showed that the type of insert is the most significant factor affecting surface roughness, with a Percentage Contribution Ratio (PCR) value of 67.41%. Feed rate also significantly affected surface roughness but contributed less to its variation. No significant difference was found between values of Ra using wiper inserts under dry and wet cooling modes when turning 6060 Aluminium alloy.

Keywords: 6060 Aluminium alloy, conventional and wiper carbide tools, dry turning, average surface roughness.

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Authors: Sinee Sankrusme

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Boon Rawd Brewery is a beer company based in Thailand that has an exemplary image, both as a good employer and a well-managed company with a strong record of social responsibility. The most famous of the company’s products is Singha beer. To study the company’s marketing strategy, a case study analysis was conducted together with qualitative research methods. The study analyzed the marketing strategy of Boon Rawd Brewery before the liberalization of the liquor market in 2000. The company’s marketing strategies consisted of the following: product line strategy, product development strategy, block channel strategy, media strategy, trade strategy, and consumer incentive strategy. Additionally, the company employed marketing mix strategy based on the 4Ps: product, price, promotion and place (of distribution).

Keywords: Beer, Boon Rawd Brewery Company, Marketing Strategy.

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Authors: Michael G. Pantelyat

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Fundamental basics of pure and applied research in the area of magneto-thermo-mechanical numerical analysis and design of innovative electromagnetic devices (modern induction heaters, novel thermoelastic actuators, rotating electrical machines, induction cookers, electrophysical devices) are elaborated. Thus, mathematical models of magneto-thermo-mechanical processes in electromagnetic devices taking into account main interactions of interrelated phenomena are developed. In addition, graphical representation of coupled (multiphysics) phenomena under consideration is proposed. Besides, numerical techniques for nonlinear problems solution are developed. On this base, effective numerical algorithms for solution of actual problems of practical interest are proposed, validated and implemented in applied 2D and 3D computer codes developed. Many applied problems of practical interest regarding modern electrical engineering devices are numerically solved. Investigations of the influences of various interrelated physical phenomena (temperature dependences of material properties, thermal radiation, conditions of convective heat transfer, contact phenomena, etc.) on the accuracy of the electromagnetic, thermal and structural analyses are conducted. Important practical recommendations on the choice of rational structures, materials and operation modes of electromagnetic devices under consideration are proposed and implemented in industry.

Keywords: Electromagnetic devices, multiphysics, numerical analysis, simulation and design.

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Authors: Nesli Aydin

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Waste management decision making in developing countries has moved towards being more pragmatic, transparent, sustainable and comprehensive. Turkey is required to make its waste related legislation compatible with European Legislation as it is a candidate country of the European Union. Improper Turkish practices such as open burning and open dumping practices must be abandoned urgently, and robust waste management systems have to be structured. The determination of an optimum waste management system in any region requires a comprehensive analysis in which many criteria are taken into account by stakeholders. In conducting this sort of analysis, there are two main criteria which are evaluated by waste management analysts; economic viability and environmentally friendliness. From an analytical point of view, a central characteristic of sustainable development is an economic-ecological integration. It is predicted that building a robust waste management system will need significant effort and cooperation between the stakeholders in developing countries such as Turkey. In this regard, this study aims to provide data regarding the cost and environmental burdens of waste treatment technologies such as an incinerator, an autoclave (with different capacities), a hydroclave and a microwave coupled with updated information on calculation methods, and a framework for comparing any proposed scenario performances on a cost and environmental basis.

Keywords: Decision making, economic viability, environmentally friendliness, stakeholder, waste management systems.

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Authors: Ivan Balázs, Jindřich Melcher

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Steel thin-walled beams have been widely used in civil engineering as purlins, ceiling beams or wall substructure beams. There are often planar members such as trapezoidal sheeting or sandwich panels used as roof or wall cladding fastened to the steel beams. The planar members also serve as stabilization of thin-walled beams against buckling due to loss of stability. This paper focuses on problem of stabilization of steel monosymmetric thin-walled beams by trapezoidal sheeting. Some factors having influence on overall behavior of this structural system are investigated using numerical analysis. Thin-walled beams in bending stabilized by trapezoidal sheeting are of primarily interest of this study.

Keywords: Beam, buckling, numerical analysis, stability, steel structures, trapezoidal sheeting.

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Authors: B.Tavakoly Sany, A.H .Sulaiman, GH. Monazami, A. Salleh

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Eight heavy metals (Cu, Cr, Zn, Hg, Pb, Cd, Ni and As) were analyzed in sediment samples in the dry and wet seasons from November 2009 to October 2010 in West Port of Peninsular Malaysia. The heavy metal concentrations (mg/kg dry weight) were ranged from 23.4 to 98.3 for Zn, 22.3 to 80 for Pb, 7.4 to 27.6 Cu, 0.244 to 3.53 for Cd, 7.2 to 22.2 for Ni, 20.2 to 162 for As, 0.11 to 0.409 for Hg and 11.5 to 61.5 for Cr. Metals concentrations in dry season were higher than the rainy season except in cupper and chromium. Analysis of variance with Statistical Analysis System (SAS) shows that the mean concentration of metals in the two seasons (α level=0.05) are not significantly different which shows that the metals were held firmly in the matrix of sediment. Also there are significant differences between control point station with other stations. According to the Interim Sediment Quality guidelines (ISQG), the metal concentrations are moderately polluted, except in arsenic which shows the highest level of pollution.

Keywords: Heavy metals, sediment quality guidelines, west port.

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Authors: Dennis A. Apuan

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Categorical data based on description of the agricultural landscape imposed some mathematical and analytical limitations. This problem however can be overcome by data transformation through coding scheme and the use of non-parametric multivariate approach. The present study describes data transformation from qualitative to numerical descriptors. In a collection of 103 random soil samples over a 60 hectare field, categorical data were obtained from the following variables: levels of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, pH, hue, chroma, value and data on topography, vegetation type, and the presence of rocks. Categorical data were coded, and Spearman-s rho correlation was then calculated using PAST software ver. 1.78 in which Principal Component Analysis was based. Results revealed successful data transformation, generating 1030 quantitative descriptors. Visualization based on the new set of descriptors showed clear differences among sites, and amount of variation was successfully measured. Possible applications of data transformation are discussed.

Keywords: data transformation, numerical descriptors, principalcomponent analysis

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Authors: Ivan Yatchev, Ewen Ritchie

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Comparison of two approaches for the simulation of the dynamic behaviour of a permanent magnet linear actuator is presented. These are full coupled model, where the electromagnetic field, electric circuit and mechanical motion problems are solved simultaneously, and decoupled model, where first a set of static magnetic filed analysis is carried out and then the electric circuit and mechanical motion equations are solved employing bi-cubic spline approximations of the field analysis results. The results show that the proposed decoupled model is of satisfactory accuracy and gives more flexibility when the actuator response is required to be estimated for different external conditions, e.g. external circuit parameters or mechanical loads.

Keywords: Coupled problems, dynamic models, finite elementanalysis, linear actuators, permanent magnets.

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Authors: Erik Hedin, Lars Strandén, Johannes Lundsten

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In 2002 an amendment to SOLAS opened for lightweight material constructions in vessels if the same fire safety as in steel constructions could be obtained. FISPAT (FIreSPread Analysis Tool) is a computer application that simulates fire spread and fault injection in cruise vessels and identifies fire sensitive areas. It was developed to analyze cruise vessel designs and provides a method to evaluate network layout and safety of cruise vessels. It allows fast, reliable and deterministic exhaustive simulations and presents the result in a graphical vessel model. By performing the analysis iteratively while altering the cruise vessel design it can be used along with fire chamber experiments to show that the lightweight design can be as safe as a steel construction and that SOLAS regulations are fulfilled.

Keywords: Fire spread, network, safety, simulation.

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Authors: S. Meikandasivam, D. Vijayakumar, Rajesh Kumar Nema, Shailendra Kumar Jain

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This paper investigates the performance of the single TCSC and proposed split TCSC on transmission system where India’s first TCSC project is installed in Kanpur - Ballabhgarh (KB) line to ensure the fine tuning of line reactance by proposed split TCSC in place of existing KB TCSC. A three phase KB transmission system is developed in MATLAB/Simulink (SimPowerSystems) for

1. without any compensation,
2. with fixed capacitor (FC),
3. with FC + existing KB TCSC and
4. with FC + proposed split TCSC

The KB system is analyzed for a step variation of load and performance of the system is investigated with a closed loop reactance control method.

Keywords: Single TCSC, Split TCSC, TCSC Reactance characteristic curve, Power flow analysis, Sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Kiurski S. Jelena, Kecić S. Vesna, Aksentijević M. Snežana

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Samples of tap and wastewater were collected in three offset printing facilities in Novi Sad, Serbia. Ten physicochemical parameters were analyzed within all collected samples: pH, conductivity, m - alkalinity, p - alkalinity, acidity, carbonate concentration, hydrogen carbonate concentration, active oxygen content, chloride concentration and total alkali content. All measurements were conducted using the standard analytical and instrumental methods. Comparing the obtained results for tap water and wastewater, a clear quality difference was noticeable, since all physicochemical parameters were significantly higher within wastewater samples. The study also involves the application of simple linear regression analysis on the obtained dataset. By using software package ORIGIN 5 the pH value was mutually correlated with other physicochemical parameters. Based on the obtained values of Pearson coefficient of determination a strong positive correlation between chloride concentration and pH (r = -0.943), as well as between acidity and pH (r = -0.855) was determined. In addition, statistically significant difference was obtained only between acidity and chloride concentration with pH values, since the values of parameter F (247.634 and 182.536) were higher than F_critical (5.59). In this way, results of statistical analysis highlighted the most influential parameter of water contamination in offset printing, in the form of acidity and chloride concentration. The results showed that variable dependence could be represented by the general regression model: y = a₀ + a₁x+ k, which further resulted with matching graphic regressions.

Keywords: Pollution, printing industry, simple linear regression analysis, wastewater.

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Authors: Sourabh Agrawal, Ashok K. Jain

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Stick models are widely used in studying the behaviour of straight as well as skew bridges and viaducts subjected to earthquakes while carrying out preliminary studies. The application of such models to highly curved bridges continues to pose challenging problems. A viaduct proposed in the foothills of the Himalayas in Northern India is chosen for the study. It is having 8 simply supported spans @ 30 m c/c. It is doubly curved in horizontal plane with 20 m radius. It is inclined in vertical plane as well. The superstructure consists of a box section. Three models have been used: a conventional stick model, an improved stick model and a 3D finite element model. The improved stick model is employed by making use of body constraints in order to study its capabilities. The first 8 frequencies are about 9.71% away in the latter two models. Later the difference increases to 80% in 50th mode. The viaduct was subjected to all three components of the El Centro earthquake of May 1940. The numerical integration was carried out using the Hilber- Hughes-Taylor method as implemented in SAP2000. Axial forces and moments in the bridge piers as well as lateral displacements at the bearing levels are compared for the three models. The maximum difference in the axial forces and bending moments and displacements vary by 25% between the improved and finite element model. Whereas, the maximum difference in the axial forces, moments, and displacements in various sections vary by 35% between the improved stick model and equivalent straight stick model. The difference for torsional moment was as high as 75%. It is concluded that the stick model with body constraints to model the bearings and expansion joints is not desirable in very sharp S curved viaducts even for preliminary analysis. This model can be used only to determine first 10 frequency and mode shapes but not for member forces. A 3D finite element analysis must be carried out for meaningful results.

Keywords: Bearing, body constraint, box girder, curved viaduct, expansion joint, finite element, link element, seismic, stick model, time history analysis.

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Authors: S. M. Mirdamadi, S. Esmaeili, S. A. Tohidloo

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The main purpose of this research was to analyze Socio-Cultural obstacles of disseminating of nanotechnology in Iran's agricultural section. One hundred twenty eight out of a total of 190 researchers with different levels of expertise in and familiarity with nanotechnology were randomly selected and questionnaires completed by them. Face validity have been done by expert's suggestion and correction, reliability by using Cronbakh-Alpha formula. The results of a factor analysis showed variation for different factors. For cultural factors 19/475 percent, for management 13/139 percent, information factor 11/277 percent, production factor 9/703 percent, social factor 9/267 percent, and for attitude factor it became 8/947 percent. Also results indicated that socio-cultural factors were the most important obstacle for nanotechnology dissemination in agricultural section in Iran.

Keywords: Agriculture, Iran, nanotechnology, public perception, social-cultural obstacles.

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová

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Complex sensitivity analysis of stresses in a concrete slab of the real type of rigid pavement made from recycled materials is performed. The computational model of the pavement is designed as a spatial (3D) model, is based on a nonlinear variant of the finite element method that respects the structural nonlinearity, enables to model different arrangements of joints, and the entire model can be loaded by the thermal load. Interaction of adjacent slabs in joints and contact of the slab and the subsequent layer are modeled with the help of special contact elements. Four concrete slabs separated by transverse and longitudinal joints and the additional structural layers and soil to the depth of about 3m are modeled. The thickness of individual layers, physical and mechanical properties of materials, characteristics of joints, and the temperature of the upper and lower surface of slabs are supposed to be random variables. The modern simulation technique Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling with 20 simulations is used. For sensitivity analysis the sensitivity coefficient based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is utilized. As a result, the estimates of influence of random variability of individual input variables on the random variability of principal stresses s1 and s3 in 53 points on the upper and lower surface of the concrete slabs are obtained.

Keywords: Concrete, FEM, pavement, sensitivity, simulation.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Tabatabaei, Ali Vaseghi Ardekani

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In this paper, Zinc Oxide (ZnO) thin films are deposited on glass substrate by sol-gel method. The ZnO thin films with well defined orientation were acquired by spin coating of zinc acetate dehydrate monoethanolamine (MEA), de-ionized water and isopropanol alcohol. These films were pre-heated at 275°C for 10 min and then annealed at 350°C, 450°C and 550°C for 80 min. The effect of annealing temperature and different thickness on structure and surface morphology of the thin films were verified by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM). It was found that there was a significant effect of annealing temperature on the structural parameters of the films such as roughness exponent, fractal dimension and interface width. Thin films also were characterizied by X-ray Diffractometery (XRD) method. XRD analysis revealed that the annealed ZnO thin films consist of single phase ZnO with wurtzite structure and show the c-axis grain orientation. Increasing annealing temperature increased the crystallite size and the c-axis orientation of the film after 450°C. Also In this study, ZnO thin films in different thickness have been prepared by sol-gel method on the glass substrate at room temperature. The thicknesses of films are 100, 150 and 250 nm. Using fractal analysis, morphological characteristics of surface films thickness in amorphous state were investigated. The results show that with increasing thickness, surface roughness (RMS) and lateral correlation length (ξ) are decreased. Also, the roughness exponent (α) and growth exponent (β) were determined to be 0.74±0.02 and 0.11±0.02, respectively.

Keywords: ZnO, Thin film, Fractal analysis, Morphology, AFM, annealing temperature, different thickness, XRD.

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Authors: Hasliza A. Rahim, Fareq Malek, Nur A. M. Affendi, Azuwa Ali, Norshafinash Saudin, Latifah Mohamed

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This paper presents the experimental investigation of on-body channel fading at 2.45 GHz considering two effects of the user body movement; stationary and mobile. A pair of body-worn antennas was utilized in this measurement campaign. A statistical analysis was performed by comparing the measured on-body path loss to five well-known distributions; lognormal, normal, Nakagami, Weibull and Rayleigh. The results showed that the average path loss of moving arm varied higher than the path loss in sitting position for upper-arm-to-left-chest link, up to 3.5 dB. The analysis also concluded that the Nakagami distribution provided the best fit for most of on-body static link path loss in standing still and sitting position, while the arm movement can be best described by log-normal distribution.

Keywords: On-Body channel communications, fading characteristics, statistical model.

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Authors: Chiara Verbano, Maria Crema, Karen Venturini

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The company-s ability to draw on a range of external sources to meet their needs for innovation, has been termed 'open innovation' (OI). Very few empirical analyses have been conducted on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to the extent that they describe and understand the characteristics and implications of this new paradigm. The study's objective is to identify and characterize different modes of OI, (considering innovation process phases and the variety and breadth of the collaboration), determinants, barriers and motivations in SMEs. Therefore a survey was carried out among Italian manufacturing firms and a database of 105 companies was obtained. With regard to data elaboration, a factorial and cluster analysis has been conducted and three different OI modes have emerged: selective low open, unselective open upstream, and mid- partners integrated open. The different behaviours of the three clusters in terms of determinants factors, performance, firm-s technology intensity, barriers and motivations have been analyzed and discussed.

Keywords: Open innovation, R&D management, SMEs.

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Authors: Yasmin Tantawi, Mary Beth Rosson

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In response to the dearth of information about emoji use for different purposes in different settings, this paper investigates the paralinguistic function of emojis within Twitter communication in the United States. To conduct this investigation, the Twitter feeds from 16 population centers spread throughout the United States were collected from the Twitter public API. One hundred tweets were collected from each population center, totaling to 1,600 tweets. Tweets containing emojis were next extracted using the “emot” Python package; these were then analyzed via the IBM Watson API Natural Language Understanding module to identify the topics discussed. A manual content analysis was then conducted to ascertain the paralinguistic and emotional features of the emojis used in these tweets. We present our characterization of emoji usage in Twitter and discuss implications for the design of Twitter and other text-based communication tools.

Keywords: Computer mediated communication, content analysis, paralinguistics, sociology.

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Authors: Ji Young Song, Soo Jung Hu, Hyunjin Joo, Joung Boon Hwang, Mi Ok Kim, Shin Jung Kang, Dae Hyun Cho

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Multi-residue analysis method for penicillins was developed and validated in bovine muscle, chicken, milk, and flatfish. Detection was based on liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS). The developed method was validated for specificity, precision, recovery, and linearity. The analytes were extracted with 80% acetonitrile and clean-up by a single reversed-phase solid-phase extraction step. Six penicillins presented recoveries higher than 76% with the exception of Amoxicillin (59.7%). Relative standard deviations (RSDs) were not more than 10%. LOQs values ranged from 0.1 and to 4.5 ug/kg. The method was applied to 128 real samples. Benzylpenicillin was detected in 15 samples and Cloxacillin was detected in 7 samples. Oxacillin was detected in 2 samples. But the detected levels were under the MRL levels for penicillins in samples.

Keywords: Penicillins, livestock product, Multi-residue analysis, LC/MS/MS

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Authors: Say Wei Foo, Qi Dong

Abstract:

Digital watermarking has become an important technique for copyright protection but its robustness against attacks remains a major problem. In this paper, we propose a normalizationbased robust image watermarking scheme. In the proposed scheme, original host image is first normalized to a standard form. Zernike transform is then applied to the normalized image to calculate Zernike moments. Dither modulation is adopted to quantize the magnitudes of Zernike moments according to the watermark bit stream. The watermark extracting method is a blind method. Security analysis and false alarm analysis are then performed. The quality degradation of watermarked image caused by the embedded watermark is visually transparent. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme has very high robustness against various image processing operations and geometric attacks.

Keywords: Image watermarking, Image normalization, Zernike moments, Robustness.

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Authors: M Ahmadigorji, A. Abbaspour, A Rajabi-Ghahnavieh, M. Fotuhi- Firuzabad

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DG application has received increasing attention during recent years. The impact of DG on various aspects of distribution system operation, such as reliability and energy loss, depend highly on DG location in distribution feeder. Optimal DG placement is an important subject which has not been fully discussed yet. This paper presents an optimization method to determine optimal DG placement, based on a cost/worth analysis approach. This method considers technical and economical factors such as energy loss, load point reliability indices and DG costs, and particularly, portability of DG. The proposed method is applied to a test system and the impacts of different parameters such as load growth rate and load forecast uncertainty (LFU) on optimum DG location are studied.

Keywords: Distributed generation, optimal placement, cost/worthanalysis, customer interruption cost, Dynamic programming

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Authors: M. A. Hajeeh

Abstract:

Pumping systems are an integral part of water desalination plants, their effective functioning is vital for the operation of a plant. In this research work, the reliability and availability of pressurized pumps in a reverse osmosis desalination plant are studied with the objective of finding configurations that provides optimal performance. Six configurations of a series system with different number of warm and cold standby components were examined. Closed form expressions for the mean time to failure (MTTF) and the long run availability are derived and compared under the assumption that the time between failures and repair times of the primary and standby components are exponentially distributed. Moreover, a cost/ benefit analysis is conducted in order to identify a configuration with the best performance and least cost. It is concluded that configurations with cold standby components are preferable especially when the pumps are of the size.

Keywords: Availability, Cost/ benefit, Mean time to failure, Pumps.

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Authors: Tomohiro Ando, Satoshi Yamashita

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The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Empirical Bayes, Hazard term structure, Loss given default.

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Authors: Mabel A. Leva

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This study defines a methodology to compute unitary costs for freight transportation modes. The main objective was to gather relevant costs data to support the formulation and evaluation of railway, road, pipelines and port projects. This article will concentrate on the following steps: Compilation and analysis of relevant modal cost studies, Methodological adjustments to make cost figures comparable between studies, Definition of typology and scope of transportation modes, Analysis and validation of cost values for relevant freight transportation modes in Chile. In order to define the comparison methodology for the costs between the different transportation modes, it was necessary to consider that the relevant cost depends on who performs the comparison. Thus, for the transportation user (e.g. exporter) the pertinent costs are the mode tariffs, whereas from the operators perspective (e.g. rail manager), the pertinent costs are the operating costs of each mode.

Keywords: Intermodal costs, Logistics, Transportation costs.

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Authors: L. Fauziana, M. F. Siti Atiqah, Z. A. Ahmad Noor Syukri

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The aim of the study was to identify seat belt wearing factor among road users in Malaysia. Evidence-based approach through in-depth crash investigation was utilised to determine the intended objectives. The objective was scoped into crashes investigated by Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research (MIROS) involving passenger vehicles within 2007 and 2010. Crash information of a total of 99 crash cases involving 240 vehicles and 864 occupants were obtained during the study period. Statistical test and logistic regression analysis have been performed. Results of the analysis revealed that gender, seat position and age were associated with seat belt wearing compliance in Malaysia. Males are 97.6% more likely to wear seat belt compared to females (95% CI 1.317 to 2.964). By seat position, the finding indicates that frontal occupants were 82 times more likely to be wearing seat belt (95% CI 30.199 to 225.342) as compared to rear occupants. It is also important to note that the odds of seat belt wearing increased by about 2.64% (95% CI 1.0176 to 1.0353) for every one year increase in age. This study is essential in understanding the Malaysian tendency in belting up while being occupied in a vehicle. The factors highlighted in this study should be emphasized in road safety education in order to increase seat belt wearing rate in this country and ultimately in preventing deaths due to road crashes.

Keywords: crash investigation, risk compensation, road safety, seat belt wearing, statistical analysis.

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Authors: A. Bouzekri, H. Benmassaud

Abstract:

Aurèsregion is one of the arid and semi-arid areas that have suffered climate crises and overexploitation of natural resources they have led to significant land degradation. The use of remote sensing data allowed us to analyze the land and its spatiotemporal changes in the Aurès between 1987 and 2013, for this work, we adopted a method of analysis based on the exploitation of the images satellite Landsat TM 1987 and Landsat OLI 2013, from the supervised classification likelihood coupled with field surveys of the mission of May and September of 2013. Using ENVI EX software by the superposition of the ground cover maps from 1987 and 2013, one can extract a spatial map change of different land cover units. The results show that between 1987 and 2013 vegetation has suffered negative changes are the significant degradation of forests and steppe rangelands, and sandy soils and bare land recorded a considerable increase. The spatial change map land cover units between 1987 and 2013 allows us to understand the extensive or regressive orientation of vegetation and soil, this map shows that dense forests give his place to clear forests and steppe vegetation develops from a degraded forest vegetation and bare, sandy soils earn big steppe surfaces that explain its remarkable extension. The analysis of remote sensing data highlights the profound changes in our environment over time and quantitative monitoring of the risk of desertification.

Keywords: Aurès, Land use, remote sensing, spatiotemporal.

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