Search results for: Energy Prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3818

Search results for: Energy Prediction

1808 A Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model for Multi-Variate Forecasting Analysis with Fuzzy C-Means Clustering

Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida

Abstract:

In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design

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1807 Using Stresses Obtained from a Low Detailed FE Model and Located at a Reference Point to Quickly Calculate the Free-edge Stress Intensity Factors of Bonded Joints

Authors: F. Maamar, M. Sartor

Abstract:

The present study focuses on methods allowing a convenient and quick calculation of the SIFs in order to predict the static adhesive strength of bonded joints. A new SIF calculation method is proposed, based on the stresses obtained from a FE model at a reference point located in the adhesive layer at equal distance of the free-edge and of the two interfaces. It is shown that, even limiting ourselves to the two main modes, i.e. the opening and the shearing modes, and using the values of the stresses resulting from a low detailed FE model, an efficient calculation of the peeling stress at adhesive-substrate corners can be obtained by this way. The proposed method is interesting in that it can be the basis of a prediction tool that will allow the designer to quickly evaluate the SIFs characterizing a particular application without developing a detailed analysis.

Keywords: Adhesive layer, bounded joints, free-edge corner, stress intensity factor.

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1806 An Application-Based Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) Calculator for Residential Buildings

Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Chin T. Cheung, Ho C. Yu

Abstract:

Based on an indoor environmental quality (IEQ) index established by previous work that indicates the overall IEQ acceptance from the prospect of an occupant in residential buildings in terms of four IEQ factors - thermal comfort, indoor air quality, visual and aural comforts, this study develops a user-friendly IEQ calculator for iOS and Android users to calculate the occupant acceptance and compare the relative performance of IEQ in apartments. “IEQ calculator” is easy to use and it preliminarily illustrates the overall indoor environmental quality on the spot. Users simply input indoor parameters such as temperature, number of people and windows are opened or closed for the mobile application to calculate the scores in four areas: the comforts of temperature, brightness, noise and indoor air quality. The calculator allows the prediction of the best IEQ scenario on a quantitative scale. Any indoor environments under the specific IEQ conditions can be benchmarked against the predicted IEQ acceptance range. This calculator can also suggest how to achieve the best IEQ acceptance among a group of residents. 

Keywords: Calculator, indoor environmental quality (IEQ), residential buildings, 5-star benchmarks.

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1805 Application of Neural Networks to Predict Changing the Diameters of Bubbles in Pool Boiling Distilled Water

Authors: V. Nikkhah Rashidabad, M. Manteghian, M. Masoumi, S. Mousavian, D. Ashouri

Abstract:

In this research, the capability of neural networks in  modeling and learning complicated and nonlinear relations has been  used to develop a model for the prediction of changes in the diameter  of bubbles in pool boiling distilled water. The input parameters used  in the development of this network include element temperature, heat  flux, and retention time of bubbles. The test data obtained from the  experiment of the pool boiling of distilled water, and the  measurement of the bubbles form on the cylindrical element. The  model was developed based on training algorithm, which is  typologically of back-propagation type. Considering the correlation  coefficient obtained from this model is 0.9633. This shows that this  model can be trusted for the simulation and modeling of the size of  bubble and thermal transfer of boiling.

Keywords: Bubble Diameter, Heat Flux, Neural Network, Training Algorithm.

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1804 Dominating Set Algorithm and Trust Evaluation Scheme for Secured Cluster Formation and Data Transferring

Authors: Y. Harold Robinson, M. Rajaram, E. Golden Julie, S. Balaji

Abstract:

This paper describes the proficient way of choosing the cluster head based on dominating set algorithm in a wireless sensor network (WSN). The algorithm overcomes the energy deterioration problems by this selection process of cluster heads. Clustering algorithms such as LEACH, EEHC and HEED enhance scalability in WSNs. Dominating set algorithm keeps the first node alive longer than the other protocols previously used. As the dominating set of cluster heads are directly connected to each node, the energy of the network is saved by eliminating the intermediate nodes in WSN. Security and trust is pivotal in network messaging. Cluster head is secured with a unique key. The member can only connect with the cluster head if and only if they are secured too. The secured trust model provides security for data transmission in the dominated set network with the group key. The concept can be extended to add a mobile sink for each or for no of clusters to transmit data or messages between cluster heads and to base station. Data security id preferably high and data loss can be prevented. The simulation demonstrates the concept of choosing cluster heads by dominating set algorithm and trust evaluation using DSTE. The research done is rationalized.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Networks, LEECH, EEHC, HEED, DSTE.

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1803 Sustainable Engineering: Synergy of BIM and Environmental Assessment Tools in the Hong Kong Construction Industry

Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

Abstract:

The construction industry plays an important role in environmental and carbon emissions as it consumes a huge amount of natural resources and energy. Sustainable engineering involves the process of planning, design, procurement, construction and delivery in which the whole building and construction process resulting from building and construction can be effectively and sustainability managed to achieve the use of natural resources. Implementation of sustainable technology development and innovation, adoption of the advanced construction process and facilitate the facilities management to implement the energy and waste control more accurately and effectively. Study and research in the relationship of BIM and environment assessment tools lack a clear discussion. In this paper, we will focus on the synergy of BIM technology and sustainable engineering in the AEC industry and outline the key factors which enhance the use of advanced innovation, technology and method and define the role of stakeholders to achieve zero-carbon emission toward the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A case study of the adoption of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and environmental assessment tools in Hong Kong will be discussed in this paper.

Keywords: sustainability, sustainable engineering, BIM, LEED

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1802 Face Image Coding Using Face Prototyping

Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Lenka Krulikovská, Natália Helešová, Tomáš Hirner

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for face image coding. The proposed method makes a use of the features of video encoders like motion prediction. At first encoder selects appropriate prototype from the database and warps it according to features of encoding face. Warped prototype is placed as first I frame. Encoding face is placed as second frame as P frame type. Information about features positions, color change, selected prototype and data flow of P frame will be sent to decoder. The condition is both encoder and decoder own the same database of prototypes. We have run experiment with H.264 video encoder and obtained results were compared to results achieved by JPEG and JPEG2000. Obtained results show that our approach is able to achieve 3 times lower bitrate and two times higher PSNR in comparison with JPEG. According to comparison with JPEG2000 the bitrate was very similar, but subjective quality achieved by proposed method is better.

Keywords: Triangulation, H.264, Model-based coding, Average face

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1801 Location Management in Cellular Networks

Authors: Bhavneet Sidhu, Hardeep Singh

Abstract:

Cellular networks provide voice and data services to the users with mobility. To deliver services to the mobile users, the cellular network is capable of tracking the locations of the users, and allowing user movement during the conversations. These capabilities are achieved by the location management. Location management in mobile communication systems is concerned with those network functions necessary to allow the users to be reached wherever they are in the network coverage area. In a cellular network, a service coverage area is divided into smaller areas of hexagonal shape, referred to as cells. The cellular concept was introduced to reuse the radio frequency. Continued expansion of cellular networks, coupled with an increasingly restricted mobile spectrum, has established the reduction of communication overhead as a highly important issue. Much of this traffic is used in determining the precise location of individual users when relaying calls, with the field of location management aiming to reduce this overhead through prediction of user location. This paper describes and compares various location management schemes in the cellular networks.

Keywords: Cellular Networks, Location Area, MobilityManagement, Paging.

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1800 Three-Dimensional, Non-Linear Finite Element Analysis of Bullet Penetration through Thin AISI 4340 Steel Target Plate

Authors: Abhishek Soni, A. Kumaraswamy, M. S. Mahesh

Abstract:

Bullet penetration in steel plate is investigated with the help of three-dimensional, non-linear, transient, dynamic, finite elements analysis using explicit time integration code LSDYNA. The effect of large strain, strain-rate and temperature at very high velocity regime was studied from number of simulations of semi-spherical nose shape bullet penetration through single layered circular plate with 2 mm thickness at impact velocities of 500, 1000, and 1500 m/s with the help of Johnson Cook material model. Mie-Gruneisen equation of state is used in conjunction with Johnson Cook material model to determine pressure-volume relationship at various points of interests. Two material models viz. Plastic-Kinematic and Johnson- Cook resulted in different deformation patterns in steel plate. It is observed from the simulation results that the velocity drop and loss of kinetic energy occurred very quickly up to perforation of plate, after that the change in velocity and changes in kinetic energy are negligibly small. The physics behind this kind of behaviour is presented in the paper.

Keywords: AISI 4340 steel, ballistic impact simulation, bullet penetration, non-linear FEM.

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1799 Load Forecasting Using Neural Network Integrated with Economic Dispatch Problem

Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

Abstract:

High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch.

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1798 Microbial Fuel Cells and Their Applications in Electricity Generating and Wastewater Treatment

Authors: Shima Fasahat

Abstract:

This research is an experimental research which was done about microbial fuel cells in order to study them for electricity generating and wastewater treatment. These days, it is very important to find new, clean and sustainable ways for energy supplying. Because of this reason there are many researchers around the world who are studying about new and sustainable energies. There are different ways to produce these kind of energies like: solar cells, wind turbines, geothermal energy, fuel cells and many other ways. Fuel cells have different types one of these types is microbial fuel cell. In this research, an MFC was built in order to study how it can be used for electricity generating and wastewater treatment. The microbial fuel cell which was used in this research is a reactor that has two tanks with a catalyst solution. The chemical reaction in microbial fuel cells is a redox reaction. The microbial fuel cell in this research is a two chamber MFC. Anode chamber is an anaerobic one (ABR reactor) and the other chamber is a cathode chamber. Anode chamber consists of stabilized sludge which is the source of microorganisms that do redox reaction. The main microorganisms here are: Propionibacterium and Clostridium. The electrodes of anode chamber are graphite pages. Cathode chamber consists of graphite page electrodes and catalysts like: O2, KMnO4 and C6N6FeK4. The membrane which separates the chambers is Nafion117. The reason of choosing this membrane is explained in the complete paper. The main goal of this research is to generate electricity and treating wastewater. It was found that when you use electron receptor compounds like: O2, MnO4, C6N6FeK4 the velocity of electron receiving speeds up and in a less time more current will be achieved. It was found that the best compounds for this purpose are compounds which have iron in their chemical formula. It is also important to pay attention to the amount of nutrients which enters to bacteria chamber. By adding extra nutrients in some cases the result will be reverse.  By using ABR the amount of chemical oxidation demand reduces per day till it arrives to a stable amount.

Keywords: Anaerobic baffled reactor, bioenergy, electrode, energy efficient, microbial fuel cell, renewable chemicals, sustainable.

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1797 Mechanical Investigation Approach to Optimize the High-Velocity Oxygen Fuel Fe-Based Amorphous Coatings Reinforced by B4C Nanoparticles

Authors: Behrooz Movahedi

Abstract:

Fe-based amorphous feedstock powders are used as the matrix into which various ratios of hard B4C nanoparticles (0, 5, 10, 15, 20 vol.%) as reinforcing agents were prepared using a planetary high-energy mechanical milling. The ball-milled nanocomposite feedstock powders were also sprayed by means of high-velocity oxygen fuel (HVOF) technique. The characteristics of the powder particles and the prepared coating depending on their microstructures and nanohardness were examined in detail using nanoindentation tester. The results showed that the formation of the Fe-based amorphous phase was noticed over the course of high-energy ball milling. It is interesting to note that the nanocomposite coating is divided into two regions, namely, a full amorphous phase region and homogeneous dispersion of B4C nanoparticles with a scale of 10–50 nm in a residual amorphous matrix. As the B4C content increases, the nanohardness of the composite coatings increases, but the fracture toughness begins to decrease at the B4C content higher than 20 vol.%. The optimal mechanical properties are obtained with 15 vol.% B4C due to the suitable content and uniform distribution of nanoparticles. Consequently, the changes in mechanical properties of the coatings were attributed to the changes in the brittle to ductile transition by adding B4C nanoparticles.

Keywords: Fe-based amorphous, B4C nanoparticles, nanocomposite coating, HVOF.

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1796 A Large Dataset Imputation Approach Applied to Country Conflict Prediction Data

Authors: Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

Abstract:

This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known  values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions, while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: Correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression.

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1795 A Genetic Algorithm Based Classification Approach for Finding Fault Prone Classes

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Satish Kumar Dhiman, Anmol Goyal

Abstract:

Fault-proneness of a software module is the probability that the module contains faults. A correlation exists between the fault-proneness of the software and the measurable attributes of the code (i.e. the static metrics) and of the testing (i.e. the dynamic metrics). Early detection of fault-prone software components enables verification experts to concentrate their time and resources on the problem areas of the software system under development. This paper introduces Genetic Algorithm based software fault prediction models with Object-Oriented metrics. The contribution of this paper is that it has used Metric values of JEdit open source software for generation of the rules for the classification of software modules in the categories of Faulty and non faulty modules and thereafter empirically validation is performed. The results shows that Genetic algorithm approach can be used for finding the fault proneness in object oriented software components.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Software Fault, Classification, Object Oriented Metrics.

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1794 Mobile Robot Path Planning Utilizing Probability Recursive Function

Authors: Ethar H. Khalil, Bahaa I. Kazem

Abstract:

In this work a software simulation model has been proposed for two driven wheels mobile robot path planning; that can navigate in dynamic environment with static distributed obstacles. The work involves utilizing Bezier curve method in a proposed N order matrix form; for engineering the mobile robot path. The Bezier curve drawbacks in this field have been diagnosed. Two directions: Up and Right function has been proposed; Probability Recursive Function (PRF) to overcome those drawbacks. PRF functionality has been developed through a proposed; obstacle detection function, optimization function which has the capability of prediction the optimum path without comparison between all feasible paths, and N order Bezier curve function that ensures the drawing of the obtained path. The simulation results that have been taken showed; the mobile robot travels successfully from starting point and reaching its goal point. All obstacles that are located in its way have been avoided. This navigation is being done successfully using the proposed PRF techniques.

Keywords: Mobile robot, path planning, Bezier curve.

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1793 Interplay of Power Management at Core and Server Level

Authors: Jörg Lenhardt, Wolfram Schiffmann, Jörg Keller

Abstract:

While the feature sizes of recent Complementary Metal Oxid Semiconductor (CMOS) devices decrease the influence of static power prevails their energy consumption. Thus, power savings that benefit from Dynamic Frequency and Voltage Scaling (DVFS) are diminishing and temporal shutdown of cores or other microchip components become more worthwhile. A consequence of powering off unused parts of a chip is that the relative difference between idle and fully loaded power consumption is increased. That means, future chips and whole server systems gain more power saving potential through power-aware load balancing, whereas in former times this power saving approach had only limited effect, and thus, was not widely adopted. While powering off complete servers was used to save energy, it will be superfluous in many cases when cores can be powered down. An important advantage that comes with that is a largely reduced time to respond to increased computational demand. We include the above developments in a server power model and quantify the advantage. Our conclusion is that strategies from datacenters when to power off server systems might be used in the future on core level, while load balancing mechanisms previously used at core level might be used in the future at server level.

Keywords: Power efficiency, static power consumption, dynamic power consumption, CMOS.

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1792 Artificial Neural Network Model for a Low Cost Failure Sensor: Performance Assessment in Pipeline Distribution

Authors: Asar Khan, Peter D. Widdop, Andrew J. Day, Aliaster S. Wood, Steve, R. Mounce, John Machell

Abstract:

This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and classification of events. These two components have been installed, tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network management.

Keywords: Detection, leakage, neural networks, sensors, water distribution networks

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1791 Numerical Simulation of Investment Casting of Gold Jewelry: Experiments and Validations

Authors: Marco Actis Grande, Somlak Wannarumon

Abstract:

This paper proposes the numerical simulation of the investment casting of gold jewelry. It aims to study the behavior of fluid flow during mould filling and solidification and to optimize the process parameters, which lead to predict and control casting defects such as gas porosity and shrinkage porosity. A finite difference method, computer simulation software FLOW-3D was used to simulate the jewelry casting process. The simplified model was designed for both numerical simulation and real casting production. A set of sensor acquisitions were allocated on the different positions of the wax tree of the model to detect filling times, while a set of thermocouples were allocated to detect the temperature during casting and cooling. Those detected data were applied to validate the results of the numerical simulation to the results of the real casting. The resulting comparisons signify that the numerical simulation can be used as an effective tool in investment-casting-process optimization and casting-defect prediction.

Keywords: Computer fluid dynamic, Investment casting, Jewelry, Mould filling, Simulation.

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1790 Numerical Simulation for the Formability Prediction of the Laser Welded Blanks (TWB)

Authors: Hossein Mamusi, Abolfazl Masoumi, Ramezanali Mahdavinezhad

Abstract:

Tailor-welded Blanks (TWBs) are tailor made for different complex component designs by welding multiple metal sheets with different thicknesses, shapes, coatings or strengths prior to forming. In this study the Hemispherical Die Stretching (HDS) test (out-of-plane stretching) of TWBs were simulated via ABAQUS/Explicit to obtain the Forming Limit Diagrams (FLDs) of Stainless steel (AISI 304) laser welded blanks with different thicknesses. Two criteria were used to detect the start of necking to determine the FLD for TWBs and parent sheet metals. These two criteria are the second derivatives of the major and thickness strains that are given from the strain history of simulation. In the other word, in these criteria necking starts when the second derivative of thickness or major strain reaches its maximum. With having the time of onset necking, one can measure the major and minor strains at the critical area and determine the forming limit curve.

Keywords: TWB, Forming Limit Diagram, Necking criteria, ABAQUS/Explicit

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1789 Local Linear Model Tree (LOLIMOT) Reconfigurable Parallel Hardware

Authors: A. Pedram, M. R. Jamali, T. Pedram, S. M. Fakhraie, C. Lucas

Abstract:

Local Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Models (LLNFM) like other neuro- fuzzy systems are adaptive networks and provide robust learning capabilities and are widely utilized in various applications such as pattern recognition, system identification, image processing and prediction. Local linear model tree (LOLIMOT) is a type of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang neuro fuzzy algorithm which has proven its efficiency compared with other neuro fuzzy networks in learning the nonlinear systems and pattern recognition. In this paper, a dedicated reconfigurable and parallel processing hardware for LOLIMOT algorithm and its applications are presented. This hardware realizes on-chip learning which gives it the capability to work as a standalone device in a system. The synthesis results on FPGA platforms show its potential to improve the speed at least 250 of times faster than software implemented algorithms.

Keywords: LOLIMOT, hardware, neurofuzzy systems, reconfigurable, parallel.

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1788 FCNN-MR: A Parallel Instance Selection Method Based on Fast Condensed Nearest Neighbor Rule

Authors: Lu Si, Jie Yu, Shasha Li, Jun Ma, Lei Luo, Qingbo Wu, Yongqi Ma, Zhengji Liu

Abstract:

Instance selection (IS) technique is used to reduce the data size to improve the performance of data mining methods. Recently, to process very large data set, several proposed methods divide the training set into some disjoint subsets and apply IS algorithms independently to each subset. In this paper, we analyze the limitation of these methods and give our viewpoint about how to divide and conquer in IS procedure. Then, based on fast condensed nearest neighbor (FCNN) rule, we propose a large data sets instance selection method with MapReduce framework. Besides ensuring the prediction accuracy and reduction rate, it has two desirable properties: First, it reduces the work load in the aggregation node; Second and most important, it produces the same result with the sequential version, which other parallel methods cannot achieve. We evaluate the performance of FCNN-MR on one small data set and two large data sets. The experimental results show that it is effective and practical.

Keywords: Instance selection, data reduction, MapReduce, kNN.

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1787 3D Numerical Studies on External Aerodynamics of a Flying Car

Authors: Sasitharan Ambicapathy, J. Vignesh, P. Sivaraj, Godfrey Derek Sams, K. Sabarinath, V. R. Sanal Kumar

Abstract:

The external flow simulation of a flying car at take off phase is a daunting task owing to the fact that the prediction of the transient unsteady flow features during its deployment phase is very complex. In this paper 3D numerical simulations of external flow of Ferrari F430 proposed flying car with different NACA 9618 rectangular wings have been carried. Additionally, the aerodynamics characteristics have been generated for optimizing its geometry for achieving the minimum take off velocity with better overall performance in both road and air. The three-dimensional standard k-omega turbulence model has been used for capturing the intrinsic flow physics during the take off phase. In the numerical study, a fully implicit finite volume scheme of the compressible, Reynolds-Averaged, Navier-Stokes equations is employed. Through the detailed parametric analytical studies we have conjectured that Ferrari F430 flying car facilitated with high wings having three different deployment histories during the take off phase is the best choice for accomplishing its better performance for the commercial applications.

Keywords: Aerodynamics of flying car, air taxi, negative lift. roadable airplane.

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1786 Non-Homogeneous Layered Fiber Reinforced Concrete

Authors: Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

Abstract:

Fiber reinforced concrete is important material for load bearing structural elements. Usually fibers are homogeneously distributed in a concrete body having arbitrary spatial orientations. At the same time, in many situations, fiber concrete with oriented fibers is more optimal. Is obvious, that is possible to create constructions with oriented short fibers in them, in different ways. Present research is devoted to one of such approaches- fiber reinforced concrete prisms having dimensions 100mm ×100mm ×400mmwith layers of non-homogeneously distributed fibers inside them were fabricated.

Simultaneously prisms with homogeneously dispersed fibers were produced for reference as well. Prisms were tested under four point bending conditions. During the tests vertical deflection at the center of every prism and crack opening were measured (using linear displacements transducers in real timescale). Prediction results were discussed.

Keywords: Fiber reinforced concrete, 4-point bending, steel fiber.

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1785 A Maximum Power Point Tracker for PV Panels Using SEPIC Converter

Authors: S. Ganesh, J. Janani, G. Besliya Angel

Abstract:

Photovoltaic (PV) energy is one of the most important renewable energy sources. Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) techniques should be used in photovoltaic systems to maximize the PV panel output power by tracking continuously the maximum power point which depends on panel’s temperature and on irradiance conditions. Incremental conductance control method has been used as MPPT algorithm. The methodology is based on connecting a pulse width modulated dc/dc SEPIC converter, which is controlled by a microprocessor based unit. The SEPIC converter is one of the buck-boost converters which maintain the output voltage as constant irrespective of the solar isolation level. By adjusting the switching frequency of the converter the maximum power point has been achieved. The main difference between the method used in the proposed MPPT systems and other technique used in the past is that PV array output power is used to directly control the dc/dc converter thus reducing the complexity of the system. The resulting system has high efficiency, low cost and can be easily modified. The tracking capability has been verified experimentally with a 10 W solar panel under a controlled experimental setup. The SEPIC converter and their control strategies has been analyzed and simulated using Simulink/Matlab software.

Keywords: Maximum Power Point Tracking, Microprocessor, PV Module, SEPIC Converter.

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1784 Determination of Water Pollution and Water Quality with Decision Trees

Authors: Çiğdem Bakır, Mecit Yüzkat

Abstract:

With the increasing emphasis on water quality worldwide, the search for and expanding the market for new and intelligent monitoring systems has increased. The current method is the laboratory process, where samples are taken from bodies of water, and tests are carried out in laboratories. This method is time-consuming, a waste of manpower and uneconomical. To solve this problem, we used machine learning methods to detect water pollution in our study. We created decision trees with the Orange3 software used in the study and tried to determine all the factors that cause water pollution. An automatic prediction model based on water quality was developed by taking many model inputs such as water temperature, pH, transparency, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, and ammonia nitrogen with machine learning methods. The proposed approach consists of three stages: Preprocessing of the data used, feature detection and classification. We tried to determine the success of our study with different accuracy metrics and the results were presented comparatively. In addition, we achieved approximately 98% success with the decision tree.

Keywords: Decision tree, water quality, water pollution, machine learning.

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1783 A Subtractive Clustering Based Approach for Early Prediction of Fault Proneness in Software Modules

Authors: Ramandeep S. Sidhu, Sunil Khullar, Parvinder S. Sandhu, R. P. S. Bedi, Kiranbir Kaur

Abstract:

In this paper, subtractive clustering based fuzzy inference system approach is used for early detection of faults in the function oriented software systems. This approach has been tested with real time defect datasets of NASA software projects named as PC1 and CM1. Both the code based model and joined model (combination of the requirement and code based metrics) of the datasets are used for training and testing of the proposed approach. The performance of the models is recorded in terms of Accuracy, MAE and RMSE values. The performance of the proposed approach is better in case of Joined Model. As evidenced from the results obtained it can be concluded that Clustering and fuzzy logic together provide a simple yet powerful means to model the earlier detection of faults in the function oriented software systems.

Keywords: Subtractive clustering, fuzzy inference system, fault proneness.

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1782 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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1781 Analysis and Application of in Indirect MinimumJerk Method for Higher order Differential Equation in Dynamics Optimization Systems

Authors: V. Tawiwat, T. Amornthep, P. Pnop

Abstract:

Both the minimum energy consumption and smoothness, which is quantified as a function of jerk, are generally needed in many dynamic systems such as the automobile and the pick-and-place robot manipulator that handles fragile equipments. Nevertheless, many researchers come up with either solely concerning on the minimum energy consumption or minimum jerk trajectory. This research paper considers the indirect minimum Jerk method for higher order differential equation in dynamics optimization proposes a simple yet very interesting indirect jerks approaches in designing the time-dependent system yielding an alternative optimal solution. Extremal solutions for the cost functions of indirect jerks are found using the dynamic optimization methods together with the numerical approximation. This case considers the linear equation of a simple system, for instance, mass, spring and damping. The simple system uses two mass connected together by springs. The boundary initial is defined the fix end time and end point. The higher differential order is solved by Galerkin-s methods weight residual. As the result, the 6th higher differential order shows the faster solving time.

Keywords: Optimization, Dynamic, Linear Systems, Jerks.

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1780 Prediction of the Thermal Parameters of a High-Temperature Metallurgical Reactor Using Inverse Heat Transfer

Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

Abstract:

This study presents an inverse analysis for predicting the thermal conductivities and the heat flux of a high-temperature metallurgical reactor simultaneously. Once these thermal parameters are predicted, the time-varying thickness of the protective phase-change bank that covers the inside surface of the brick walls of a metallurgical reactor can be calculated. The enthalpy method is used to solve the melting/solidification process of the protective bank. The inverse model rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined with the Broyden method (BM). A statistical analysis for the thermal parameter estimation is carried out. The effect of the position of the temperature sensors, total number of measurements and measurement noise on the accuracy of inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of temperature sensors.

Keywords: Inverse heat transfer, phase change, metallurgical reactor, Levenberg–Marquardt method, Broyden method, bank thickness.

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1779 The Effects of Detector Spacing on Travel Time Prediction on Freeways

Authors: Piyali Chaudhuri, Peter T. Martin, Aleksandar Z. Stevanovic, Chongkai Zhu

Abstract:

Loop detectors report traffic characteristics in real time. They are at the core of traffic control process. Intuitively, one would expect that as density of detection increases, so would the quality of estimates derived from detector data. However, as detector deployment increases, the associated operating and maintenance cost increases. Thus, traffic agencies often need to decide where to add new detectors and which detectors should continue receiving maintenance, given their resource constraints. This paper evaluates the effect of detector spacing on freeway travel time estimation. A freeway section (Interstate-15) in Salt Lake City metropolitan region is examined. The research reveals that travel time accuracy does not necessarily deteriorate with increased detector spacing. Rather, the actual location of detectors has far greater influence on the quality of travel time estimates. The study presents an innovative computational approach that delivers optimal detector locations through a process that relies on Genetic Algorithm formulation.

Keywords: Detector, Freeway, Genetic algorithm, Travel timeestimate.

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